Economic Development Planning Research Articles

Measurement and Analysis of the Relationship between General Revenues and Imbalance in Iraq's Export Structure For duration (2004-2021)

The Iraqi economy relies primarily on oil exports to achieve necessary financial surpluses in order to finance economic and social development plans. Capital imports also contribute to improving the productive capacity of all sectors that directly or indirectly contribute to the country's economic growth if they actually exist. These imports, represented by the equipment and machinery necessary for building and developing infrastructure in Iraq, which cannot be provided except through foreign trade, make Iraq closely connected to broad economic relationships with most of the developed world economies. Oil revenues have had a positive impact on the general budget situation. However, on the other hand, the lack of a productive base has led to the leakage of revenues towards imports to meet domestic demand, resulting in an imbalance in the overall export structure. Moreover the research objective was to identify the relative importance of total exports in Iraq and how they are affected by oil revenues during the period 2004-2021. The hypothesis is fiscal policy has led to a disruption in the structure of Iraq's exports. And one of the most important result that appeared general revenues depend to a large extent on oil revenues compared to other revenues (non-oil), which means that the Iraqi economy is considered one-sided. With the weakness of revenues achieved from productive sectors (industry and agriculture) as well as weak tax revenues, this leads to an imbalance in the structure of the trade balance, evident through the dominance of oil exports over total exports in the country. Paper type: Research paper.

Oman’s Green Horizon: Steering Towards Sustainability Through Decarbonization and Energy Transition

This paper examines the determinants of CO2 emissions in Oman from 1990 to 2024, focusing on the impacts of energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization, financial development, and foreign direct investment. The analysis utilizes stepwise regression to systematically identify the most significant predictors, ensuring a parsimonious model. Robust least squares (ROLSs) are employed to account for potential outliers and heteroscedasticity in the data, providing more reliable estimates. Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLSs) is applied to address issues of endogeneity and serial correlation, offering robust long-term coefficient estimates. Canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) further refines these estimates by handling non-stationary variables and ensuring consistency in the presence of cointegration. Cointegration tests, including the Johansen and Engle–Granger methods, confirm long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables; this study reveals several key findings. Energy use per capita (ENGY) and real GDP per capita (RGDPC) are consistently significant positive predictors of CO2 emissions. Urbanization (URB) also significantly contributes to higher emissions. Conversely, the Financial Development Index (FDX) and foreign direct investment (FDI) do not show significant effects on CO2 levels. The high R-squared values across models indicate that these variables explain a substantial portion of the variation in emissions. Cointegration tests confirm long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables, with the Johansen test identifying two cointegrating equations and the Engle–Granger test showing significant tau-statistics for FDX, ENGY, and URB. The VEC model further highlights the short-term dynamics and adjustment mechanisms. These findings underscore the importance of energy policy, economic development, and urban planning in Oman’s efforts towards sustainable development and decarbonization.

Identification and Analysis of Peak Population Migration Patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Complex Network Theory

Abstract. As a vital economic and population agglomeration area in China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has attracted considerable attention regarding population migration issues. Population migration not only directly affects the population size and structure of cities within the region but also has profound implications for economic development, social stability, and urban planning. This study extends the analysis to the "Spring Festival Travel Rush" period, using population migration data from January to March in the years 2020 to 2022 as the basis. By employing complex network theory and relevant statistical indicators, the study explores the peak period population migration patterns and their variations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The research firstly identifies significant changes in population migration patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region around 2021 and analyzes the changing patterns. Secondly, network statistical indicators indicate hierarchical population migration patterns based on city tiers. Furthermore, cities with unique migration patterns are identified. Finally, based on an in-depth exploration of population migration patterns and their variations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the study provides suggestions and prospects for future urban planning and development, offering important references for addressing the challenges posed by population migration in the region.

Tropical forest cover, oil palm plantations, and precipitation drive flooding events in Aceh, Indonesia, and hit the poorest people hardest.

Tropical forest loss and degradation in watersheds disrupt essential ecosystem services that regulate water flow, often causing devastating floods that impact agricultural productivity and impoverish downstream communities. Despite its importance, evaluations of the interconnectedness between the depletion of hydrological services and flooding lack an evidence-base in the Global South and, therefore, have little influence on policy dialogue. In this study, we focus on the forest-rich province of Aceh, Indonesia, using local and national newspaper articles to compile information on flood events between 2011 and 2018. We explored spatio-temporal flood patterns with a combination of climatic, topographic, and environmental factors. We compiled 2,029 reported flood events in mainland Aceh located in 20 of the 21 districts/cities, with a disproportionately high occurrence (71%) in four districts. The trend of flood events exhibited an increasing pattern between 2011 and 2018. Over this period, floods displaced ~158,000 people and damaged ~24,500 houses and ~11,500 ha of agricultural land. Our generalized linear mixed-effect model found that reported flood events were more likely to occur in areas with lower tree cover, more oil palm plantations, and higher precipitation. Areas with a lower human population density and higher poverty rates were found to be most susceptible to flooding events. Our findings highlight the critical link between forest preservation and flood prevention, and the irreplaceable role that forests play in ensuring the well-being of local communities, especially those affected by poverty. Our study underscores the importance of considering these interconnected factors in future land use and economic development plans and policies.

GETTING TO KNOW THE GENERAL BY GRAHAM GREENE: A CRITIQUE OF AMERICAN POWER

Graham Greene's Getting to Know the General offers a profound critique of American power dynamics in Latin America, particularly through the lens of General Omar Torrijos' leadership in Panama during the Cold War. The book strongly conveys the feeling that the strategic importance of Panama and the Panama Canal in the region constitutes a justification for the USA's indirect and direct interventions and presence there. Greene depicts how Torrijos, the central figure of the book, emerged as a threat to the US in that country and the region while attempting to defend Panama's sovereignty and national interests. During the Canal Agreement process, his divergence from the dictators in Latin America is emphasised by highlighting his national stance, character, human understanding, libertarian side, courage, and behaviour akin to that of a world leader. By considering political integration with his people through a parliamentary system, Torrijos envisions future plans for both economic development and establishing natural relations with countries in the region. These are perceived as an excellent risk for the USA, and Torrijos dies in a suspicious plane crash. In Getting to Know the General, Greene exposes the dark presence of US power in the region behind the tragic end of Torrijos, who worked sincerely and courageously for his country and refused to be a puppet leader and offers a unique approach in that it shows some still unchanging things in the world fifty years later through fiction.

Science, health and the military dictatorship in Brazil: the Integrated Endemic Disease Program (PIDE) of CNPq (1973-1987)

This article analyzes the Integrated Endemic Disease Program (PIDE), which was established in 1973 by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development CNPq, financed by the Brazilian Funding Authority for Studies and Projects FINEP. The program was established to finance research on diseases considered strategic to the economic development plans of the military regime (1964-1985). Acknowledged to be a landmark program in the history of Brazilian parasitology, PIDE was set up during a period when the dictatorship was both violently repressing scholars and investing heavily in science and technology (S&T). The article examines the context in which the program was implemented and analyzes what it signified for planners in the S&T field and for the scientists who coordinated it. The contention is that PIDE was an example of how the scientific community managed to use financial and institutional resources available under the S&T policy in the 1970s to advance research on parasitic diseases and update its agenda. This analysis contributes to recent historiography that, based on specific historical cases, reflects on the paradoxical nature of a regime that, in its authoritarian modernization project, simultaneously persecuted scientists and supported science.

Spatial pattern and coupling characteristics analysis of maritime traffic and economic development based on shipping big data

The rapid development of maritime transport and the gradual increase in the number of ports, ships and shipping routes can produce direct economic benefits for regional development, and a profound grasp of the actual situation of maritime transport makes it possible to make practical plans for economic development and thus rationally develop and use marine resources. However, there is a lack of research on maritime transport, so this study is based on the AIS, waterways, routes and ports data in the near-shore sea area of Guangdong Province. Using GIS spatial analysis technology and various mathematical models, we refer to the evaluation method of road traffic dominance. It analyses and proposes the evaluation indexes of maritime traffic advantages, such as the density of maritime traffic network and the proximity of ports. Based on the actual situation of the study regions, the indicators were quantitatively evaluated and analyzed. The economic development level of each region was also quantitatively evaluated using principal component analysis, and the study regions were classified based on the coupling-coordination model. The results show that the coastal area of Guangdong Province is divided into four types of zones according to the coupling-coordination type of zoning criteria. Corresponding development suggestions are put forward for different zones, and the research results provide certain practical guidelines for promoting the benign cycle development of maritime traffic and economy, and have important guiding significance and application value for the organization and safety of maritime traffic.

Maps of Geographical Distribution Patterns of Industrial Facilities in Dhi Qar Governorate

This study investigates the spatial distribution of industrial facilities within Dhi Qar Governorate. By analyzing geographical patterns, the research aims to identify clusters, hotspots, and potential areas for industrial development. The study utilizes geographic information systems (GIS) to visualize and analyze the distribution of industrial establishments across the governorate. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the industrial landscape, informing future planning and decision-making for economic development and resource allocation in Dhi Qar.

Analisis Pengaruh kemiskinan, pertumbuhan penduduk, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Provinsi Jawa Timur tahun 2015 – 2023

This research focuses on Population Growth, Human Development Index Level and Poverty Level in Economic Growth in East Java Province. Proper human development will enable the maximization of production factors, so HDI is considered to play an important role in contemporary economic development planning. The research method used, namely a certain type of quantitative research, was used in this research. Meanwhile, the methodology used in this research is a quantitative descriptive approach for research that tries to describe or characterize numbers that have been processed according to certain standards—not a qualitative descriptive methodology. The location of this research was carried out in East Java Province, whose capital is the city of Surabaya through the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of East Java Province, while at that time the research was carried out in the XIV semester of 2023. The data collection methods used in this research were documentation and field studies. Regression analysis using panel data and the Eviews 9 program is the analysis method used in this research. The research results in this study are that the Poverty variable only has a negative and significant effect on HDI, which means that if the amount of poverty increases, the HDI value will also decrease, while for the variables Economic Growth Rate and Population Growth both have a significant positive effect on HDI, meaning that if As economic and population growth rates increase, the HDI value will also increase.

The Complex Pathway to Green Fields: Opportunities and Challenges of Organic Agriculture in Thailand

This article explores the complex dynamics of organic agriculture in Thailand, focusing on the interplay of economic viability, environmental sustainability, and consumer awareness. Since the implementation of the National Economic and Social Development Plan in 1961, Thailand has emphasized cash crop production, leading to increased reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides, which have raised significant environmental and health concerns. The article highlights the pivotal role of non-governmental organizations, such as the Alternative Agriculture Network, in advocating for sustainable farming practices and facilitating knowledge transfer between producers and consumers. Despite the potential benefits of organic farming, challenges persist, including labor-intensive production methods, declining interest among younger generations in agricultural careers, and a general lack of consumer understanding regarding organic products. The article underscores the importance of local financial support systems, such as cooperative loans, and government initiatives aimed at promoting organic agriculture. It argues that enhancing consumer awareness and demand for organic products is essential for fostering a sustainable agricultural future in Thailand. Ultimately, the findings suggest that a multi-faceted approach involving policy support, education, and community engagement is necessary to overcome the barriers to organic farming and ensure its growth in the Thai agricultural landscape.

The state-led approach to industrial heritage in China’s mega-events: capital accumulation, urban regeneration, and heritage preservation

This paper employs a comparative analysis to investigate the state-led use of industrial heritage in major Chinese mega-events, delving into the three cases of the Guangzhou Asian Games, the Shanghai Expo, and the Beijing Winter Olympics. Examining the evolving practices led by Chinese governments reveals unique pathways for industrial heritage and showcases its diverse roles in economic development and societal transformation. The three cases illustrate the nuanced dynamics between market forces and state interventions, emphasising the importance of strategic planning and long-term considerations in mega-event-induced heritage practices. Mega-events serve as catalysts for urban regeneration, allowing governments to allocate substantial resources to conserve and repurpose industrial heritage. However, the current paper contends that the sustained benefits of industrial heritage hinge on thoughtful planning for long-term economic and social sustainability, emphasising the need to constrain a focus on short-term gains through land revenue. These reflections contribute to a nuanced understanding of the intricate interplay between heritage preservation, economic development, and sustainable urban planning in the context of China’s mega-events.

Forecasting of the Unemployment Rate in Turkey: Comparison of the Machine Learning Models

Unemployment is the most important problem that countries need to solve in their economic development plans. The uncontrolled growth and unpredictability of unemployment are some of the biggest obstacles to economic development. Considering the benefits of technology to human life, the use of artificial intelligence is extremely important for a stable economic policy. This study aims to use machine learning methods to forecast unemployment rates in Turkey on a monthly basis. For this purpose, two different models are created. In the first model, monthly unemployment data obtained from TURKSTAT for the period between 2005 and 2023 are trained with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. The second model, which includes additional economic parameters such as inflation, exchange rate, and labor force data, is modeled with the XGBoost algorithm in addition to ANN and SVM models. The forecasting performance of both models is evaluated using various performance metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The findings of the study show how successful artificial intelligence methods are in forecasting economic developments and that these methods can be used in macroeconomic studies. They also highlight the effects of economic parameters such as exchange rates, inflation, and labor force on unemployment and reveal the potential of these methods to support economic decisions. As a result, this study shows that modeling and forecasting different parameter values during periods of economic uncertainty are possible with artificial intelligence technology.

Strategy to Strengthen Halal Tourism

Java Province has many natural tourist attractions, especially in Trenggalek Regency. In Indonesia, the development of tourism with a halal concept is becoming a trend. Several tourist attractions are competing to create or change their tourist attractions into halal tourism so that Muslim tourists who come to visit feel safer. This study aimed to determine the critical aspects of developing halal tourism in Trenggalek Regency. This research method is qualitative, using SWOT analysis. The results of this study indicate that the potential for natural beauty in Trenggalek Regency is an aspect that can positively impact the strengthening of halal tourism and increase regional income because of the many existing opportunities. Strengthening halal tourism in Trenggalek Regency is in quadrant 1, namely in the strengths and weaknesses (SO) strategy, so that strategies to increase visitor attraction can be carried out by improving the quality of tourism by utilizing existing opportunities. Overall, this study provides a strategic framework for the development of halal tourism in Trenggalek Regency, which has broad implications for economic growth, cultural expansion, infrastructure development, stakeholder collaboration, and policy planning.

Application of Hedonic Pricing Model and Geographic Information System on Property Valuation in Yogyakarta

This study aims to: 1) identify the differences in housing choices between Generation Z (students) and the previous generation (parents or guardians); 2) determine the factors influencing housing purchase decisions; and 3) map the areas of interest for Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) students based on price. The research employs a combination of the Hedonic Pricing Model (HPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS), a method that remains limited in the field of property research. The findings reveal that significant factors affecting property prices are building area and location, with the majority of UGM students choosing to reside in Ngaglik District, Sleman Regency. Sleman Regency is also the predominant area where UGM students purchase housing in Yogyakarta. Key attributes influencing UGM students' housing decisions include a safe neighbourhood, residential environment, and distance from waste centers. This research contributes valuable information to property appraisers regarding property price distribution in Yogyakarta and its influencing factors, and provides crucial insights for effective decision-making and policy implementation in regional economic development planning, especially in less popular areas.

An energy system model-based approach to investigate cost-optimal technology mixes for the Cuban power system to meet national targets

Cuba's power supply is characterized by the dependence on imported oil, outdated power plants and frequent power curtailment. Cuba's government aims at changing this situation through the National Economic and Social Development Plan, which targets a renewable share of 37 % in 2030. In the longer term, the Cuban government has already acknowledged the goal of 100 % renewable electricity supply. This work reviews the current ambitions of the Cuban government and provides a scientific approach to identifying the most cost-effective 100 % renewable energy system in 2030. First, we study whether the generation mix proposed by the Cuban government to reach 37 % renewables is the most cost-effective. Second, we run a simulation that considers fossil and renewable energy technologies purely to optimize costs. Third, we investigate the renewable future for Cuba with a simulation under the constraint of a 100 % renewable energy share. Our results suggest that energy sector plans should be reconsidered from a techno-economic point of view: With the overall cost-optimization, we find that much higher renewable energy shares of over 80 % are possible at lower overall costs. Finally, we analyze that the cost viability of a 100 % renewable electricity depends largely on the ability to use Cuba's biomass resources to balance solar generation.

Leading Sector Development Strategy in the Economic Structure of Jambi City.

The research article titled "Leading Sector Development Strategy in the Economic Structure of Jambi City" aims to analyze the economic landscape of Jambi City and formulate data-driven policy strategies for economic development. The study utilizes a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, including SLQ, DLQ, MRP, Overlay, Classic Shift-Share, Esteban Maquila’s Shift-Share, Klassen Typology, SWOT, IFAS, and EFAS analyses. The findings highlight promising sectors such as trade, accommodation, food and beverage services, and corporate services. The research also identifies shifts in the economic structure and competitive advantages in various sectors. Furthermore, the study formulates policy strategies for the development of selected leading sectors in Jambi City. The article provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Jambi City to prioritize and plan for economic development

Stakeholders’ Participation in the Creative Economic Development of Cirebon City

This study aims to examine the participation level of stakeholders, identify the dominant stakeholders, and investigate the factors inhibiting stakeholders’ participation in the planning, implementation, and evaluation of creative economic development in Cirebon City. “Creative City” is politically and legally stipulated as the city vision in the regional mid-term development plan 2018-2023 of Cirebon City. As the creative economy is centered around the production, exchanges, and consumption of goods and services from human creativity, Cirebon City is, therefore, a significant case study to investigate how the local government implements participatory processes in developing a creative city.Using qualitative methods, data were collected through a semi-guided interview of 190 respondents from five stakeholders: academics, businesses, communities, government institutions, and media organizations. It was followed by a focus group discussion of 12 key respondents selected purposively from the five stakeholders. With primary and secondary data sources, qualitative data was analyzed through the process of data reduction, data display, and conclusion drawing/verification.This study concluded that stakeholders' participation in all stages of creative economic development in Cirebon was still minimal. The businesses in culinary subsectors as the most dominant stakeholders in the participation processes. The lack of socialization from the municipal government and the limited collaboration amongst the stakeholders were identified as the inhibiting factors of inclusive participation in creative city development. The government needs to accelerate creative economic development through multisectoral policies, including improvement of business knowledge and skills of the local business actors, goods and services’ quality upgrading and assurance, certification and legal assistance, as well as promotion and market expansion

A comparative study of the nexus of natural resource investment in national economies: Effects on cultural communication and economic growth

This article provides a comparative analysis of the complex interplay between cultural exchange, national economic development, and investments in natural resources. This research aims to examine how rising Asian countries' economies have grown as a result of a green economic rebound from 2000 to 2020. The study makes use of the D-H causality test methodology as well as the CCE-MG It assesses the varied impacts of resource investment on employment, GDP growth, and income distribution by looking at case studies and empirical data. It examines how investments in natural resources impact economic pathways and cultural communication dynamics. It sheds light on the complex effects of resource investment on cross-cultural understanding and economic development via case studies and empirical data. It also delves into how resource investments impact economic development plans and how cultural communication patterns interact. The results highlight the need to comprehend these relationships for efficient policymaking and sustainable development.

The Role of Green Sukuk (Islamic Bonds/ Shariah-Compliant Bonds) in Enhancing Indonesia Economic Development Strategy in The New Normal Era

This study aims to determine the significance of Green Sukuk in enhancing Indonesia’s economic development strategy in the new normal era. - The method employed was quantitative with forecasting. Furthermore, the researchers employed the least squares quantitative and historical analogy qualitative techniques. The study’s findings indicate Green Sukuk’s role in boosting Indonesia’s economic development plan in the new normal era. The implications of the study are likely to add to the body of knowledge linked to the function of Green Sukuk in enhancing Indonesia’s economic growth strategy in the new normal era. Increasing the number of issuances and contributions of State Sukuk (Islamic bonds/ shariah-compliant bonds) to APBN funding, with an annual average of roughly 30% of total Government Securities (SBN) financing. To the best of the researchers’ knowledge, this is one of the first attempts to empirically study the function of Sukuk in boosting Indonesia’s economic development strategy in the new normal era. Keywords: Green Sukuk, Development Strategy, Indonesian Economy, and the New Normal Era

USE OF QUANTUM MODELS IN THE STUDY OF RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INNOVATIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The article analyzes the main aspects of the application of quantum models for the analysis of relationships between innovations and economic growth, which are a promising direction in economic science. The influence of trends and challenges of globalization and accelerated technological innovations, which play a key role in realizing competitive advantages and increasing productivity, is determined; in promoting the sustainable development of the economy. The author defines the dynamics of innovation processes, which causes the need for new approaches, such as the principles of quantum modeling, defines the content of quantum models in global business. In particular, the principles that allow for more accurate modeling of uncertainty and non-linear processes characteristic of innovative activity are considered. The author pays special attention to the use of quantum models for accurate forecasting and planning of economic development, development of effective strategies for scientific research and state policy in the field of innovation. The recommendations are aimed at carrying out a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the impact of quantum technologies on economic indicators of employment, indicators of investment activity and international trade. In further scientific developments, it is expected to improve the comparative analysis of classical and quantum economic models for determining effective approaches to innovation management. A promising direction of scientific research is the development of a methodical tool for optimizing investments in research and R&D to improve the mechanisms of state support for innovative activities. Emphasis is placed on the fact that research results will contribute to the creation of a new generation of economic strategies based on the principles of quantum economics, and will open up new horizons for the growth and development of the world market.