Economic Crisis Research Articles

Electricity Price Bubbles and Global Crisis: Does Financial Development Make a Difference?

The aim of this study is to investigate the existence of electricity price bubbles and identify the factors that contribute to their formation by conducting a comparative analysis between a developed country, Germany, and an emerging country, Romania. We employ the generalized sup ADF test, utilizing bi-annual data spanning from 2007 to 2022. Our findings reveal the presence of 2 distinct electricity price bubbles in both Germany and Romania. In Germany, the first bubble emerged in the second half of 2008, coinciding with the onset of the global economic crisis. Conversely, Romania did not experience a bubble as a result of the economic crisis during this period. The second electricity price bubble in both countries was primarily driven by Russia’s decision to halt gas supplies to Europe. Additionally, the surge in energy consumption following the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic played a significant role. This research contributes to the broader discourse on energy economics by elucidating the mechanisms behind electricity price fluctuations in different economic contexts. The comparative approach underscores the importance of tailored policy responses that consider country-specific factors while addressing global challenges. As energy markets continue to evolve, such studies will be instrumental in guiding strategic decisions and fostering sustainable economic growth. JEL Classification: Q41, E31

Formas não proprietárias de morar ameaçadas: despejos e remoções em São Paulo durante a pandemia de COVID-19

From the perverse conjunction between an increasing social and economic crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022) — with rising unemployment, deteriorating incomes and increase of debt — and an unprecedent real estate boom, which caused a rise in land and rent prices, emerged new squats and an intensified number of displacements and evictions in São Paulo city, Brazil. However, the occurrence of displacement and evictions is quite invisible in the field of urban policies. This article presents the methods used by the Evictions Observatory to identify these processes, using cartography as a research method and analysis. By mobilizing data derived from different sources, we relate evictions to changes in real estate-renting dynamics that leads to the displacement of non-proprietary forms of living. We also investigated their relation with governmental plans, policies and projects which take on the role of incentivizing the market to produce new real estate products or offering rent as a service, in a context of increasing participation of real estate as financial assets and growing presence of asset managers and digital platforms in these markets.

A koronavírus-járvány társadalmi és gazdasági hatásai a határ menti térségek fejlődésére a magyar–szlovák határrégiók esetében

The Social and Economic Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Development of Border Regions in the Case of the Hungarian–Slovak Border Regions Borders in a given social context seem to be eternal and unchangeable, but their exact location, their permeability, their functions and the regulations assigned to them are in fact constantly changing according to the ideals of the respective societal eras. The SARS-CoV-2 neo-coronavirus infection, identified in December 2019 as the cause of Covid-19 disease, has become a global pandemic, causing a major health, economic and social crisis. The pandemic had an impact on the single market mechanisms established by the European Union, affecting freedoms—the free movement of services, goods, capital and people—and on almost every aspect of everyday life as it had been until then. In border regions, these effects were magnified. The active socio-economic interactions of the Hungarian–Slovak border regions were interrupted overnight as a result of the border traffic measures, causing significant negative changes and restructuring the functioning of cross-border processes.

The ECB's Solution to the Inflation Caused by the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Abstract: The Russian-Ukrainian War saw a major escalation on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, sparking the biggest battle in Europe since World War II. In addition to negatively affecting international relations, this lengthy conflict has had a significant negative influence on world markets, especially those in the Eurozone. The ongoing conflict has intensified inflationary pressures, necessitating the implementation of strong fiscal and monetary measures by the European Central Bank (ECB). This study analyzes the inflationary effect of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the economies of the Eurozone and assesses the ECB's policies using macroeconomic models, such as the IS-PC-MR model. It explores the complex economic fallout, which includes unstable energy supply, higher industrial prices, and a decline in consumer confidence. The economy has stabilized largely because of the ECB's initiatives, which have included coordinated fiscal policies, interest rate hikes and asset purchase adjustments. Despite these initiatives, problems still exist, such as controlling the growing public debt and striking a balance between inflation management and economic growth. In order to strengthen economic resilience, the conclusion highlights the need for ongoing adaptation and international cooperation. Investments in integrated fiscal measures, diverse supply chains, and renewable energy are suggested as being crucial for long-term stability. The purpose of this study is to provide insights for future economic crisis management and to contribute to policy-making conversations.

Bitcoin: an alternative to fiat money? A post-Keynesian perspective

Motivation: This paper addresses the ongoing debate surrounding Bitcoin’s potential to function as an alternative to state-issued fiat currencies. With the advent of Bitcoin and its increasing global prominence, it is essential to explore its viability, particularly in light of its formal adoption in El Salvador as legal tender. The limited supply and decentralized nature of Bitcoin present a significant departure from traditional monetary systems, which raises questions regarding its capacity to fulfill the roles of money under Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).Aim: The primary goal of this paper is to critically examine whether Bitcoin can serve as a functional replacement for fiat money. Using a post-Keynesian analytical framework, this study investigates Bitcoin’s ability to meet the requirements of sovereign money, particularly within the theoretical framework of MMT. The analysis focuses on Bitcoin’s decentralized issuance, limited supply, and its role in fiscal policy and credit creation.Materials and methods: This research employs a critical literature review and a case study analysis, using the framework of MMT and post-Keynesian endogenous money theory to assess Bitcoin’s economic implications and its real-world application in El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law. The study analyzes Bitcoin’s economic implications based on the endogenous money supply model and evaluates its impact on government fiscal policy, credit markets, and economic stability in both theoretical and practical contexts, with a special focus on El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law.Results: The analysis reveals significant limitations in Bitcoin’s ability to function as a fiat currency. Its rigid supply and speculative nature hinder its capacity to serve as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account, as envisaged by MMT. The study concludes that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and deflationary design pose challenges for its broader adoption as state money, particularly in managing aggregate demand and economic crises.

Investor behavior in crisis: a comparative study of fear-driven downtrends and confidence-led recoveries

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to investigate the differences between financial crises of fear and confidence and the differential behavior between downtrends and recovery.Design/methodology/approachFive national stock markets have been analyzed – the USA (SP500), China (Hang Seng), Spain (IBEX 35), Japan (Nikkei) and Germany (DAX) – through the evolution of three world economic crises: the mortgage bubble crisis of 2007 in the first place, with special attention to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which will be treated as an independent crisis process, and the crisis caused by COVID-19. The behavioral finance theory, with the support of the complexity theory in the field of risk management, will establish the different behavioral biases that explain the differences between the two types of crises, fear and confidence, when confronted with risk.FindingsEconomic crises resulting from a shocking event, addressed as crises of fear in this research, such as Lehman Brothers or COVID-19, are fast-moving; all the economies analyzed show a common pattern of evolution. The difference is found in the recovery periods in which the previous parallelism does not continue. Crisis events that arise from a social context, addressed as crises of trust in this research, follow similar patterns in their evolution; nonetheless, the start date presents higher variations than those originated by a shock. These crises also lack parallelism between fall and recovery.Practical implicationsUnderstanding crisis process patterns may help to prevent them and alleviate their effects when they occur.Originality/valueUnderstanding crisis process patterns may help to prevent them and alleviate their effects when they occur. This constitutes an original field of research.

Slow and Steady or Fast and Furious: An Analysis of Completion Duration in open.uom.lk

The open.uom.lk platform is an open learning platform developed by the University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka, offering free asynchronous online IT related courses. The platform was developed as an initiative to meet the growing human capital requirement of the IT industry in Sri Lanka, one of the only sectors showing strong growth even during the country’s recent economic crisis. In the two years since the release of its flagship course Trainee Full-Stack Developer, there have been over 270,000 enrolled learners. The course consists of six subjects covering Python programming, web design, and a professional practice module that includes a capstone project. Despite the massive number of enrollments, as in many other MOOCs, completion rates remain low. For instance, for the two beginner courses in programming and web design, into which all participants are enrolled automatically, completion rates stand at 7-10%. Completion rates for subsequent subjects are higher given that enrollment is conditional on completing prerequisites. From a planning perspective, it is not just estimates of how many participants complete the programs but also the time they take to do so that are integral for determining the future growth of the IT industry. As such, this study aims to develop a model for course completion using survival analysis which has the advantage of being able to model censored data (e.g. when duration is unknown due to non-completion) and provide forecasts of completion rates at different points in time. The analysis uses student activity completion reports and demographic information of participants including employment and educational background. The findings suggest that the course interaction variables, particularly the speed of completing early activities, are more important for predicting course completion than the demographic variables, though education and employment status are also significantly correlated with completion. The survival model could then be used for purposes of predicting both the completion probability as well as the timeframe within which the completion may be expected.

Challenges in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 in Ghana: An assessment of the impact of economic crisis on urban household food security

There is an ongoing economic crisis in Ghana which has the potential to strain household finances, alter dietary patterns, and push people into a state of food insecurity. While rural areas have traditionally been the focus of food security research and interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is growing evidence of the challenges faced by urban residents which warrants investigation. This study aims to assess the current status of food security among urban households in Ghana, and examine the impact of the economic crisis on food dietary decisions and food security. This study surveyed 401 random sampling participants in two major urban areas, Accra and Takoradi. The structured questionnaire included the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), and additional questions on income allocation to food and dietary changes. The results show a significant prevalence of food insecurity among urban households in Ghana, with over half of the respondents experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity. The economic crisis has notably impacted food expenditures, with 81 % of participants reporting changes in their income allocation to food, and 75 % reducing the variety of foods they consume. A substantial portion of respondents now spends between 31 and 50 % of their total income on food which is an indication of the financial burden they face. Ordinal logistic regression identified household income as a critical factor influencing food security, with unemployed and lower-income individuals facing a significantly higher risk. These results emphasize the urgent need for both immediate food assistance, and long-term strategies to strengthen food systems and improve the economic situation to reduce vulnerability. Implementing the recommendations from these findings could contribute towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 in Ghana.

A Detailed Case Study of Human Rights Violation in Chennai Region with Reference of Union Carbide Corporation Vs Union of India

Human rights include the expression of the need for people to be treated in a fair, decent and humane manner regardless of their ethnic, religious or racial profile. Violation of human rights involves denying human beings their basic moral rights. These violations have been part of human history, and only in the last century has a general consensus emerged that they are absolutely wrong. Perpetrators of human rights abuses range from governments, corporations and organized crime rings to communities and individuals. There are many underlying causes that lead people to violate human rights. There is a temptation to view human rights violations in a one-dimensional construct involving a very simplistic spectrum of evil versus good. The first part of this article examines the view that "human rights violators are not necessarily just evil, but may also be themselves forced into ways of behaving by external circumstances". Violations of human rights are a result of the innate evil nature of the perpetrators, who argue that there are other environmental and biological factors that drive people to commit such crimes. The second part of the paper examines the extent to which fear of the "other" drives the desire to commit war crimes against a perceived rival group. The study is based on a systematic content analysis of official documents, press releases, newspapers, articles and interviews. I quantitatively collected all available information and also identified the most frequently recurring terminology and key words, which were graphically represented whenever possible. It also consists of articles and sections as well as various steps taken as a whole or generally or individually with developments and human rights issues from time to time that help in the violation and protection of people around the world. You will find here a discussion of the issue of Kashmir, humanitarian crises during and after the conflict in Gaza between Israeli forces and Hamas in 2008-2009, the UN's view of human rights violations, the crises caused by the 2006 Lebanon war, the humanitarian disaster in the Darfur province of Sudan (2003- 2010); and finally the political, social and economic crisis in Zimbabwe (2001–2010). The case studies analyzed in this research report reveal a number of similar trends as well as some notable differences. As such, they restrict civil liberties to prevent the emergence and mobilization of dissent in society. Moreover, human rights are at the heart of the European integration process (which was built on the ashes of civil war and genocide) and its long-term aspirations. The fundamental recognition of human rights is therefore always reflected in the EU's foreign policy and external relations.

Image of Social World in Metaphors and Narratives of Adults

The image of the social world is a predictor of social behavior and its development during stable social transitivity, i.e., COVID-19 pandemic, economic crises, local military conflicts, etc. It can also be interpreted as a variable linguistic phenomenon. However, very little empirical research has featured its integral structural and content characteristics through the prism of narratives, metaphors, and social representations. The author used the methods of thematic narrative analysis and content analysis of metaphors to identify the narrative constructions used by adult subjects to describe their image of the social world. The data obtained were subjected to frequency analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis. The experiment involved 193 respondents aged 35–49 years old, employed in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia. In their metaphors and narratives, they described the social world as balancing between stability and dynamism, predictability and stochasticity, as well as endowed it with differentiation in the absence of universal laws. The rationality of the metaphors reflected the age identity while the subject of biographical narratives reflected the subjective adaptation to current social processes.

Economic Uncertainty and Impact of Governments’ Spending on Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Emerging Market Economies*

The COVID-19-led economic crisis has rekindled scholarly interest in the relationship between government spending and economic growth. Further, there is an emerging realm of empirical literature that focuses on the dynamics of this relationship during times of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the effect of government expenditure on economic growth during economic uncertainty and the role of economic confidence in the transmission mechanism of policy shocks utilizing a panel generalized method of moments (GMM) framework for 13 select emerging market economies (EMEs). The findings suggest that the beneficial impact of government spending during economic uncertainty is not significantly different from regular times; however, its effectiveness is enhanced during contractionary periods. Government spending, on the other hand, does not have a statistically significant effect during expansionary phases. Furthermore, unanticipated government spending boosts economic confidence, especially during contractionary phases. Governments in EMEs should implement countercyclical fiscal policies selectively to stimulate aggregate demand and facilitate economic recovery, prioritizing targeted spending in confidence-building initiatives and key sectors. Spending in high multiplier sectors during contractionary periods can boost economic activity and speed recovery, fostering stability and growth amidst uncertain economic conditions. JEL Classification E32, H30, H32

From the economic to the pandemic crisis: The impact upon the EU constitutional architecture—Introduction to the Symposium

Abstract The European Union has evolved significantly, shaped by crises as foreseen by Jean Monnet, who predicted that Europe would be “forged in crises.” Over recent decades, it has faced challenges such as the euro crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, rule-of-law backsliding, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. These crises have tested and transformed the European Union’s constitutional framework, prompting institutional reforms and innovations in governance without necessarily revising the Treaties. This Symposium explores the European Union’s constitutional evolution through the lens of crises. Key reforms include the reinforcement of budgetary discipline during the euro crisis and the shift toward a stimulus-based approach in response to the pandemic, culminating in the NextGenerationEU framework. Contributors analyze the model of economic governance that has evolved from the convergence of both the economic and pandemic crises, the changing role of regions, the judiciary’s evolving oversight functions and its limits, and rule of law conditionality as a distinctive form of governance. The Symposium will delve into the post-crisis governance landscape of the European Union from a constitutional perspective, focusing on the structural adjustments implemented and their enduring impact. Despite these changes, the European Union has demonstrated resilience and adaptability, forging new governance structures that reflect its deepening constitutional identity. In the end, the Symposium provides a comprehensive examination of these shifts, highlighting how the European Union continues to integrate and innovate in response to ongoing challenges.

Social determinants of participation in genetic research among Puerto Ricans and in the Puerto Rican diaspora

Puerto Ricans are underrepresented in genetic research. This underrepresentation denies Puerto Ricans the benefit from therapeutic developments that could mitigate health disparities arising from conditions for which genetically-derived treatments exist. The Puerto Rican diaspora, especially post-2017 due to economic and environmental crises, has expanded within the USA. Prior research suggests that Latin American diaspora communities are less likely to participate in genetic research. We hypothesized, specifically, that the Puerto Rican diaspora in the USA would be less likely to participate in genetic research than would Puerto Ricans in their homeland's archipelago, and that accounting for social and cultural determinants related to the diaspora experience would mitigate this disparity. We implemented an analytical cross-sectional study of archipelago-residing Puerto Ricans and of the USA-residing diaspora to evaluate this hypothesis. With 1582 Puerto Ricans (723 in Puerto Rico, 859 in the USA), we found that while most participants would participate in genetic research, participation rates varied significantly by diaspora status. Puerto Ricans born and living in the USA were initially more likely to decline participation compared to those in Puerto Rico (OR = 1.54, p < 0.01). However, once adjusted for social and cultural variables, this difference was eliminated (aOR = 1.08, p = n.s.). The factors influencing non-participation include oppression, discrimination, distrust, and social determinants, aligning with the theory of minoritization. An important community in the USA and in the world, Puerto Ricans have the right to participate in well-conducted research and to benefit from its findings, particularly around topics that could help address existing disparities in health outcomes.

An Examination of Umar bin Khattab's Policy on Zakat as a Social Security Net in the Context of Post-Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented economic crisis, causing millions of people to face job losses, business closures, and financial hardship. To prevent impacts on vulnerable populations, it is essential to have a strong social safety net in the face of these difficulties. The purpose of this study is to examine the potential of zakat, the obligation of Islam to redistribute wealth, as an innovative social safety net, based on the policies of Umar bin Khattab, the second Islamic Caliph. By exploring Umar's visionary approach to zakat distribution and its relevance in contemporary times, this study examines how zakat can be used as an effective mechanism to alleviate the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for those most affected. This research uses a qualitative research approach By integrating insights from contemporary case studies and stakeholder consultations, this research proposes a comprehensive framework for implementing a robust zakat distribution system that is aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This emphasizes the importance of transparent governance, accountability mechanisms, and the involvement of Islamic financial institutions, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and community-based organizations in the zakat management process. Ultimately, this study offers an interesting case for reviving the spirit of Umar bin Khattab's zakat policy, showing how this ancient Islamic practice can serve as a powerful tool to promote financial inclusion, foster economic resilience, and support sustainable development in the face of modern crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Impact of Globalization on World Nations: A Study on Protection, Welfare, and Producer Gain

This paper examines the effects of globalization on nations, focusing on economic, social, and cultural dimensions. It analyzes the roles of protectionism and globalization in shaping consumer welfare and producer earnings through qualitative methods and the Customs Union theory framework. The study discusses the benefits and drawbacks of globalization in the context of World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations. The findings indicate that globalization has intensified financial flows between countries, which can exacerbate economic crises. Countries with abundant human resources can capitalize on the international division of labor to specialize in high-value sectors, while those with limited resources risk falling behind in the digital landscape. This division of labor fosters specialization and improves production efficiency through targeted education. However, multinational corporations often impede cost-effective production in developing nations, underscoring the necessity to restructure research and development to facilitate technology adoption in underdeveloped areas. This restructuring can help close the technological gap and encourage equitable participation in the global economy. Jel code Classification: D6: Welfare economics, Fo1 Global outlook, F40: General F4: Macroeconomics aspects of international trade and finance

Investigating the declining apprenticeship trends in Ghana: a human capital perspective

ABSTRACT Apprenticeship enrollment in Ghana is declining according to recent rounds of the Ghana Living Standards Survey, despite its importance as an avenue for human capital development among young people. This trend is alarming, especially during an era of economic crises and constraints in technical and vocational education. The paper utilizes qualitative approaches involving interviews with key stakeholders such as master craftspeople and apprentices, apprenticeship experts, and secondary data to explore the reasons behind the decline in apprenticeships. The findings reveal that young people’s desire for quick financial gains and lack of interest in apprenticeships, along with structural factors, contribute to the decline. The paper concludes by offering a nuanced critique of the human capital theory’s application to the declining apprenticeship trends in Ghana, underscoring the need for a more comprehensive framework that incorporates social, cultural and environmental factors.

When is gender on party agendas? Manifestos and (De-)democratisation in Greece, Portugal, and Spain

ABSTRACT When do political parties give attention to gender-related political interests, and what determines their positions? We argue that progress in gender equality commitments is an essential component of democratisation, and backsliding in these indicates democratic decay. Using original data coded from party manifestos in Greece, Portugal, and Spain over recent decades, we investigate the role of party ideology and critical junctures in the political context. We find that left-wing parties give more attention to gender-related interests than other parties. Far-right parties also give significant attention to some interests and stand out for traditional positions. Further, the economic recession significantly decreased attention to gender-related interests. Our results suggest that economic crises and associated far-right party strength fuel gender backsliding and de-democratisation.

Dynamics of persistence in Brazilian economic uncertainty, expectation, and confidence indexes

This study examines the persistence dynamics in Brazilian economic uncertainty, confidence, and expectation indexes, in both business and consumer sides of the economy. Using rolling window estimations of the fractional integration parameter, we assess how economic turbulence influences the persistence of these indexes. We find that economic uncertainty in Brazil is non-stationary but mean-reverting, with its persistence only transitorily affected by economic and political crises. Interestingly, confidence and expectation indexes displayed hysteretic behavior, with multiple persistence regimes linked to crises. These results may be informative for policymakers about the perceptions of the public and businessmen to economic shocks and crises.

Compassionate engagement of communities in support of palliative and end-of-life care: challenges in post-pandemic era.

Over the years, humanity has faced various global crises of different kinds that have caused great suffering in the community, such as wars, slavery, torture or the Holocaust, but also climate change, economic crises, or sanitary disasters. The recent pandemic posed a barrier to palliative and End-of-Life (EoL) care, as the need for physical distance made it difficult to retain essential human interactions while minimizing the risk of viral transmission. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the robustness of supportive networks (i.e., family, friends, neighbors, and community members) determined whether someone experienced a calm death at home or an unnecessary hospital admission, labeled as an 'emergency'. In this vein, active establishment and strengthening of such networks are the foundation of compassionate community efforts. Firstly, providing both physical and emotional support to the entire network of caregivers enhances their ability to care for others and improves the overall experience of death, including the process of dying and the ensuing bereavement period. Furthermore, individuals can enhance their own physical and mental health by practicing compassion. The ability of networks to withstand and recover from physical and emotional challenges, while maintaining strong and supportive relationships among its members, depends on the health and overall well-being of those members. Therefore, we argue that active community participation and death education can strengthen a community's capacity to assist people facing death, dying, and bereavement.

The impact of economic, social and health crises on victims of domestic violence

Aim: The situation of victims of domestic violence and partner abuse becomes even more serious in crisis situations. There have been and are ongoing conflicts in the world, which have been scrutinised by economists, sociologists, criminologists, health professionals and lawyers alike in recent years. The latest related research worldwide provides a lot of important new information that can help prepare for the problem and provide professionally competent answers. Methodology: A selection of research conducted in different parts of the world. Summary reports were prepared to shed light on similarities and differences. Findings: It is clear from the processed literature that the individual forms of violence are connected in crisis situations and pose an even greater danger. Violence at the macro level, such as war, also increases violent conflict at the micro level. The crises caused by the fear of COVID, the lockdown, war conflicts, hunger, and the climate disaster spill over into family homes and make the victims of domestic violence and partner abuse even more vulnerable. Most of the processed materials analyse research born after COVID. The COVID–19 epidemic also provided many lessons regarding the management and prevention of the economic effects of future natural disasters and the associated increased domestic violence. Value: Analyses point to relationships that need further research and evaluation. In the future, macro- and micro-level violence research must be continued, common global results must be aggregated, and complex, global solutions must be developed. International organisations must continue to collect data and provide clear guidelines to public bodies and social organisations for the joint management of macro- and micro-level problems.