Econometric Tools Research Articles

Impact of Multinational Corporation on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The impact of the multinational corporation in oil sector has been observed through this study. The study employs secondary data attained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion (NOTAP). It employs the unit root test and granger causality techniques as the econometric tools of analysis. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test results show that all the variables were stationary. The granger causality test results demonstrated that the MNCs in oil and agricultural sectors does have impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study recommends amongst others that there is the need for government to create a convenient environment for moremultinational firms to come in to both oil and agricultural sectors in order to gain the advantage of technology transfer to Nigeria. This will in turn enhancement the development process of the economy and also, the need to acclimatize and indigenize the technology that cannot be over emphasized.

Should Leverage Models Employ Time Varying or Time Invariant Firm Factors? An Empirical Analysis of Indian Listed Firms

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of capital structure stability over long horizons for firms listed in India. It covers a period of 28 years from 1992 to 2019, leading to 20,371 firm-year observations to determine the relative significance of cross-firm leverage variation and time-series leverage variation. It also identifies the circumstances and industries when each type of variation emerges stronger. The study employs simple econometric tools along with financial modelling techniques in SPSS and Microsoft Excel. It was found that corporate leverages are sticky and predictable in the short run. Also, with an increase in a firm’s age, leverage stability increases. This study contributes to the existing literature by empirically establishing that leverages can also be persistent at high levels and identifying industries that are persistent at low and high leverages. The results show that persistence at low leverage is a common phenomenon; however, a few industries such as textile, construction, and metals and mining are persistent in their capital structures even at higher levels of leverage.

Analysis of the two-way causal nexus between macroeconomic factors and infrastructure development: the experience of selected African countries

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze the two-way causal nexus between macroeconomic factors such as foreign aid, industrialization, economic growth, population growth, urbanization, control of corruption and the infrastructure development index of the top-ranking African countries from 2003 to 2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts various econometric tools such as cross-sectional dependence test, panel unit root and cointegration test and Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel Granger causality test in ascertaining the relevant relationships between the variables under consideration.FindingsThe main findings of the Granger causality test result revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between foreign aid and infrastructure and between urbanization and infrastructure. The study also found unidirectional causality running from population growth to infrastructure while a zero causal relationship existed between industrialization and infrastructure, economic growth and infrastructure and lastly, between control of corruption and infrastructure. The study concludes that the major macroeconomic factors that influence infrastructure development in these selected African countries are foreign aid, population explosion and urbanization. Also, their high infrastructure development index has causal influence in only attracting more foreign aid and also promoting urban expansion.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge, the study is unique as it is the first to determine the two-way causal nexus between macroeconomic factors and infrastructure development using a sample of the top ten African countries in infrastructure ranking. The findings reflect the current situation in Africa.

Methodological Assessment Tools of Spatial Interactions

At present, the effective and rational use of the spatial factor is one of the conditions for economic growth and development of territories. The article is devoted to the assessment of spatial interactions and systematization of the existing methodological tools for this purpose. In the course of the study, it is determined that spatial interactions are a process of movement between the “source” and the “receiver” of various objects (goods, people, transport, information, etc.). The conditions for the emergence and development of interactions in the economic space are highlighted. Based on foreign and domestic works on the problems of the research, two groups of methods for assessing spatial interactions (heuristic and economic-mathematical) are identified and characterized. The basic directions and mandatory stages of spatial interaction assessment, despite the chosen tools, are highlighted. It is determined that the coordinated use of modern tools of spatial econometrics, coupled with heuristic methods, will contribute to obtaining the most adequate and objective results. The results obtained contribute to the development of ideas about the spatial economy and can be used in the implementation of government policies in the field of spatial and regional development, as well as by researchers and other stakeholders in the assessment of spatial interactions. In the next stages of the work, it is planned to analyze the spatial interactions of Russian regions using the tools of modern spatial econometrics.

The Relationship Among the Inflation, Broad Money and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nepal

This paper intends to study the relationship among the inflation, broad money (M2) and economic growth during 2031-2075B.S. by using time series econometric tools. The stationary of all variable have been examined to determine the order of integration, for this ADF test has been applied. Variables are found to be stationary at level (0) and first I(1) difference. Johnsen Co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) have been applied to show the relation among the variables and residuals diagnostic tools (serial LM test, Heteroscedasticity test and normal distribution test) have also tested to make estimation free of spurious. The study has shown there is long run association among inflation, broad money and economic growth in Nepal.

Revisiting the Nexus between Digital Economy and Economic Prosperity: Evidence from a Comparative Analysis

In this paper, we try to investigate the contribution of digitalization on economic growth in both developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2020. For this end, different econometric tools are applied on a panel dataset. Overall, we show that the digital technologies seem to significantly and positively affect economic growth in both groups of countries. The digitalization impact level tends to differ across countries. Our empirical results also display that the short- and long-term relationship between information and communication technologies and economic growth is well documented. Such results can be useful for policymakers to enhance the digital economy and provide novel channels to develop adequate policies and promote new institutions. So, benefits from digitalization can lead to realize substantial economic growth.

Whether Households are Willing to Pay for Clean Water Supply in Sialkot, Pakistan? An Elucidation

Waterborne diseases due to contaminated water remain a severe problem in most of the developing world. The situation is serious in Sialkot the district of Punjab where groundwater is contaminated due to effluents' improper disposal. The current study is designed to find the determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) by households for clean drinking water supply in the affected area. A contingent valuation survey approach and a stratified random sampling technique have been applied. A double bounded dichotomous choice question followed by an open-ended question format has been used to elicit WTP and maximum willingness of the respondents for clean drinking water supply. Logit and Multiple Linear Regression Model is used as an econometric tool to analyze the data. The results reveal that as the income of the respondent increases, the WTP for the clean water supply also increases. While multiple regression reveals a monthly mean WTP of Rs. 234.54 which is greatly affected by age, household income, education, and environmental awareness i.e. respondents with higher household income and a higher level of education are willing to pay more for a clean water supply. Residents who are living closer to the tanneries are more affected and their WTP is higher. Keywords: Willingness to Pay, Clean drinking water, Contingent Valuation Method, Binomial Logit Regression, Leather Tanneries, Sialkot, Pakistan

Migration Attractiveness as a Factor in the Development of the Russian Arctic Mineral Resource Potential

The development of mineral resources in the Arctic territories is one of the priorities of the state policy of Russia. This endeavor requires modern technologies, high-quality personnel, and a large number of labor resources. However, the regions of the Arctic are characterized by difficult working and living conditions, which makes them unattractive to the working population. The research objectives were to study the importance of Arctic mineral resources for the Russian economy, the Arctic mineral resource potential, and the migration attractiveness of Arctic regions. The migration processes in these locations were analyzed and modeled using a new econometric tool—complex-valued regression models. The authors assume that the attractiveness of the Arctic regions is determined by the level of their social and economic development and can be assessed using a number of indicators. A comparative analysis of four regions that are entirely in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation was carried out based on the calculation of integral indicators of the social and economic attractiveness of these territories. Forecasting migration growth using the proposed complex-valued models produced better results than simple trend extrapolation. The authors conclude that complex-valued economic models can be successfully used to forecast migration processes in the Arctic regions of Russia. Understanding and predicting migration processes in the Arctic will make it possible to develop recommendations for attracting labor resources to the region, which will contribute to the successful development of its resource potential. The methodology of this study includes desk studies, a graphical method, arithmetic calculations, correlation analysis, statistical analysis, and the methods of the complex-valued economy.

Re-examining the leverage effect and gold's safe haven properties with the utilization of the implied volatility of gold: a non-parametric quantile regression approach.

Gold as a tradable financial asset has acquired the reputation of a safe haven from market turbulence. The objective of this study is to investigate empirically the relationship between gold prices and implied volatility in the futures markets of gold, re-examine the leverage hypothesis and attempt to make inferences about gold’s safe haven properties. In doing so, it utilizes the recently developed econometric tool of non-parametric quantile regressions. This is the first work to apply the flexible non-parametric quantile regressions on the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) of gold. The data used are daily returns of options of gold shares and implied volatility changes from June of 2008 to December of 2018. The empirical findings indicate that, for the total sample period as well as for almost all of the five sub-periods examined, changes in the implied volatility of gold are insensitive, and not statistically significant, to changes in the price returns of gold. The leverage hypothesis holds for a wide range in the third sub-period. Accordingly, investors in other ETFs (currency or oil) may choose to use gold as shelter during (extreme) economic downturns.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-021-00092-3.

COVID-19 research outcomes: An agenda for future research

This paper undertakes a survey of the COVID-19 pandemic literature. I find that stock market performance, COVID-19 policies and energy markets are most researched. I reason that this is because of availability of relatively high-frequency time-series data supported by appropriate econometric tools. I discuss a range of socioeconomic- and finance-related subjects of significant policy importance. In so doing, I identify specific and broad areas in need of immediate research. These future research topics have strong policy importance.

Meta-study on the relationship between profitability and liquidity of enterprises in macroeconomic and institutional environment

The main aim of the paper is to determine the relationship between profitability and financial liquidity of a company using meta-analysis. This method is based on a synthesis of many previous studies with the application of econometric tools. The results of the study show that, taking into account 16 economies, it is not possible to identify a common effect describing the relationship between the profitability of enterprises and their financial liquidity measured by the current liquidity ratio. The results of individual empirical studies that underlie the meta-analysis are diverse. This means that there are moderators of the strength and direction of this dependence associated with macroeconomic and institutional conditions. We attempted to separate them by means of meta-regression. This method involves the use of a regression model, where data are derived from both meta-analysis and external sources. We diagnosed two statistically significant moderators of the strength and direction of the relationship between profitability and liquidity. These are two factors: (i) private sector crediting and (ii) capital market development. Our paper contributes to the development of the existing knowledge by summarizing and binding previous individual empirical studies on the relationship between profitability and liquidity of enterprises and identifying factors affecting this relationship. This knowledge can assist financial managers in making more efficient decisions related to liquidity and working capital management.

دراسة إقتصادية تحليلية للترکيب الهيکلي لسوق العمل بالقطاع الزراعي المصري

يAgricultural production is characterized by seasonality that leads to an imbalance in agri-cultural labor market. However, this is pre-sumably due to the imbalance between the sea-sonal agricultural labor demand and supply, thus, resulting seasonal unemployment. This paper aims to investigate and analyze the struc-ture of Egyptian agricultural labor market throughout the period 2000-2020 via employ-ing econometric tools. The results show that, the agricultural disguised employment does not consider permeant agricultural labor its source, but rather it is due to seasonal agricul-tural employment, due to its negative marginal productivity, in which is the main cause for disguised unemployment appearance.

Driven by fundamentals or exploded by emotions: Detecting bubbles in oil prices

Crude oil is the world's largest energy commodity, and its domestic and international supplies affect the short-term and long-term economic balances of many countries. It also has a strategic and political role in making important contributions related to the production of reserve assets. Given the increasing and often destabilizing role of the futures market on spot oil prices, this study tries to address the question of whether the oil market behaves efficiently and rationally, or do speculators lead it? Using monthly data from 2000M01–2020M12 for crude oil prices and a range of advanced econometric tools such as breakpoint unit root tests, probability-based bubble detection mechanism, right-tailed Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF), and Generalized SADF (GSADF) approaches based on Monte Carlo and bootstrap critical values, we detect multiple bubbles exhibited by the oil market in different periods. The exact identification of these bubbles is essential to analyze the underlying fundamentals that may have caused these bubbles. It can also help policymakers and regulators to assess the exposure oil prices have towards several economic and fundamental factors. Finally, detecting bubbles and exploring the factors causing them, may help improve the oil market's overall efficiency and thus improve investors' decision-making.

Agricultural chemicals and sustainable development: the agricultural environment Kuznets curve based on spatial panel model.

Excessive delivery of agricultural chemicals seriously threatens the ecology and environment of agricultural areas and restricts the sustainable development of agriculture. The analysis of agrochemical Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) adopting spatial econometric tools is limited. Therefore, this study adopted the spatial panel regression approach to analyze the agricultural chemicals EKC Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR). The results show that (1) both EKC curves of chemical fertilizer and pesticide of the TGRR are inverted U-shaped, and there are 53.8% and 42.3% of the counties/districts did not meet the inflection point of the EKC as regards to chemical fertilizer and pesticide. (2) The EKC of agricultural chemicals of the TGRR are stable, and the variables such as cultivated area and the urban-rural income disparity have impact on the occurrence of the inflection point of EKC. (3) There is the spatial "imitation and convergence" of agricultural chemicals among the counties in the TGRR. The findings indicate that the ecological and environmental situations of agriculture in the TGRR need urgent attention. Countermeasures aiming to alleviate the contradiction between ecological and economic development should be put forward.

An Econometric Study of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Sudan During the Period (1999 – 2019) by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL): دراسة قياسية اقتصادية لمحددات الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر في السودان خلال الفترة (1999– 2019) باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL)

The study aimed at measuring the impact of determinants of foreign direct investment in Sudan during the period (1999 – 2019). The study problem lies in the main question: Why wasn’t the foreign investment in Sudan at the required level, despite the availability of investment prospects and obstacles-free environment that was supposed to attract investors? The descriptive analytical method was used in the theoretical part of the study, while the statistical method based on econometrics tools analysis, (ARDL) was used in the practical part. The study’s data was collected from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank of the Sudan. The most important hypothesis the study assumed that, there was a reverse relationship between inflation and direct investment in Sudan. The study concluded that, there is a negative relationship between inflation and foreign direct investment in Sudan. It also concluded that, there is a negative relationship between inflation and foreign direct investment in Sudan. Moreover, the study reached that, the exchange rate and financing cost on foreign direct investment equal % 70. This means that the independent variables have 70% effect on the dependent variable. The study recommended that, financial and monetary authorities have to maintain economic stability, curb inflation, set a fixed exchange rate and reduce the economy’s financing cost.

People’s Forest Dependence: A Case Study of Similipal Biosphere Reserve, India

A forest, as a rich ecosystem, is the source of livelihood of a large number of people residing in its fringe areas. Forest dwellers’ dependence on the forest varies across forest zones due to several factors, such as natural features and socio-economic-demographic characteristics of the people in different zones. Using econometric tools, this study evaluates the forest dependence of people residing in and around the Similipal Biosphere Reserve in India, constructs an index, and determines key factors affecting the extent of the forest dependence. The study explores household size and non-forest income as sources of alternative livelihood. Forest-zonal characteristics have significant impact on determining the extent of the forest dependence. People’s forest dependence is likely to be more in the periphery compared to the core zone. Therefore, in any initiative for reducing people’s forest dependence, zone-wise differentiation is needed to ensure sustainable development.

Analysis of the Technical Efficiency, Malmquist Productivity Index, and TOBIT Regression of the eleven Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia between 2010 and 2019

This paper is about research on the efficiency of eleven Islamic commercial banks, data from an annual report from 2010 to 2019, the method used is DEA (data envelopment analysis) with RTS using a combination of CRS and VRS, with input-output orientation, and processed as well using Malmquist Index, DEA processing using R Programming with deaR library, the average technical efficiency or CRS is 0.95 or 95%, this indicates that the technical efficiency or CRS of Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia between 2010 and 2019 is quite efficient. The value of VRS has a value of 0.98, almost efficient. Scale Efficiency (SE), A bank with type BUKU 3 has the same value for PT. Bank Syariah Mandiri, PT. Bank BRI Syariah Tbk, has the same value, namely 0.99. And in this SE column, none of them has a value of 1 which means efficient. The Malmquist Index, indicates that in 2018 it was the highest value of MI (Malmquist index) with a value of more than 2.3, it can be concluded that 2018 was the best performance of Islamic commercial banks, note that the unemployment rate in 2018 was very small of 5.3 compared to before in 2017 and before again, and the inflation rate of 2.72 is a reasonable inflation rate for Indonesia with an ideal inflation value of around 3% as a developing country, so that the production factors can run optimally. The last results of this research are about TOBIT regression, using GRETL econometric tools, fixed assets, in this case, the natural logarithm of fixed assets, does not affect the efficiency value of Islamic commercial banks, other results are ROA influences the efficiency, CAR does not really affect the efficiency, FDR is concluded to influence the efficiency, NPF does not affect the efficiency. It is concluded that inflation rate, real GDP, unemployment rate, USD to IDR exchange, affect the efficiency of Islamic commercial banks.

Does institutional quality and remittances inflow crowd-in private investment to avoid Dutch Disease? A case for emerging seven (E7) economies

This study investigates the role of remittances and institutional quality in promoting private investment for emerging seven (E7) economies. This study further analyzes whether the private investment is crow-out due to Dutch disease phenomena or a crow-in. This study uses advanced panel data econometric tools to achieve the study's desired objectives, i.e., Pesaran second-generation unit root test, Westerlund cointegration, and cross-sectionally augmented ARDL for the period 1990–2019. Moreover, this study also added an interactive term for remittance inflow and institutional quality to see both terms' joint effect. Similarly, the role of gross domestic product and financial risk is also analyzed in this study. This study's outcomes show that increasing remittance inflow does cause Dutch disease; however, improvement in institutional quality and its joint effect with remittance inflow on private investment is positive and nullifies the phenomena of Dutch disease. Moreover, an increasing gross domestic product causes private investment to grow. On the other hand, increasing financial risk in emerging seven economies cause private investment to decline. Based on our empirical findings, this study indicates that improvement in institutional quality and channelizing inflow of remittance, and overcoming financial risk shall help promote private investment in these countries.

Analysis Of the Effect Of Total Production, International Price, Exchange Rate, and Inflation On the Volume Of Indonesian Rubber Exports, 1980-2018

The purpose of this study is to partially and simultaneously analyze the influence of the variable production quantity, international prices, exchange rates, inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to 2018. The research method uses quantitative methods. Sources of research data from publications of data collected by government officials or departments include the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), the Ministry of Agriculture's Data and Information Center (Pusdatin), Index Mundi. The research location was conducted in Indonesia. The data method used in this study is the non-behavioral observation method. Multiple linear regression is the type of data used in this study as an econometric tool to describe this research and also uses data analysis such as descriptive statistical tests, classical assumptions test, simultaneous test (F test), and partial test (t-test). The results of the analysis in this study indicate that the amount of production, international prices, exchange rates, and both simultaneously and simultaneously have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports during the years 1980-2018. Partially the amount of production has a positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018, while international prices, exchange rates and inflation have no significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018.

Analysis Of the Effect Of Total Production, International Price, Exchange Rate, and Inflation On the Volume Of Indonesian Rubber Exports, 1980-2018

The purpose of this study is to partially and simultaneously analyze the influence of the variable production quantity, international prices, exchange rates, inflation on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports from 1980 to 2018. The research method uses quantitative methods. Sources of research data from publications of data collected by government officials or departments include the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), the Ministry of Agriculture's Data and Information Center (Pusdatin), Index Mundi. The research location was conducted in Indonesia. The data method used in this study is the non-behavioral observation method. Multiple linear regression is the type of data used in this study as an econometric tool to describe this research and also uses data analysis such as descriptive statistical tests, classical assumptions test, simultaneous test (F test), and partial test (t-test). The results of the analysis in this study indicate that the amount of production, international prices, exchange rates, and both simultaneously and simultaneously have a significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports during the years 1980-2018. Partially the amount of production has a positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018, while international prices, exchange rates and inflation have no significant effect on the volume of Indonesian rubber exports in 1980-2018.