Ecological Suitability Research Articles

Plant potential and ecological and economic suitability of reindeer pastures on the right bank of the Norilsk River

Purpose : identification of plant potential, ecological and economic suitability of deer pastures of the forest-tundra zone located in the zone of anthropogenic influence Material and methods . Ground geobotanical survey of the vegetation cover of deer pastures was carried out by route method in accordance with the method of geobotanical studies. The ecological and economic value of each type of pasture was determined based on the data of the ecological and economic classification of deer pastures in the north. Results . 25 species of reindeer pastures are described on the right bank of the Norilsk River in the northwestern part of the Putorana Plateau. On the basis of signs of uniformity in the structure of vegetation (proximity of species composition, similarity of vertical and horizontal structures), they are combined into 4 types: tundra, swamps, shrubs and light forests. Tundra (30.9%) and shrub (27.6%) types of pastures dominate. The most important feature is the active participation in the structure of phytocenoses of shrubs (Betula nana s. str, Salix glauca s. str, S. lanata s. str.) and shrubs (Ledum palustre. Vaccinium uliginosum s. str, V. vitis-idaea s. str.). Green fodder is most nutritious in the first half of summer. The nutritional value of fruticose lichens does not change during the year. Reindeer pastures with lichen cover and high (from 5 to 12 o-days/ha) reindeer capacity during the snowy period occupy insignificant (24.3%) areas. Basically, these are willow and dwarf dwarf shrub-lichen tundras and larch sparse forests of dwarf-shrub moss-lichen. The participation of lichens in the ground cover of plant communities does not exceed 25–35%. The following lichen species have been recorded: Cladonia arbuscula, C. stellaris, C. rangiferina, C. cornuta, C. deformis, C. mitis, Cetraria cucullata, and C. islandica. The most widespread species of the genus Cetraria: Cetraria islandica and C. cucullata, with a clear advantage of the latter. The main forage species of the genus Cladonia (Cladonia arbuscula, C. stellaris, C. rangiferina) are not widely distributed. Pastures with a high (from 9 o-days/ha to 14 o-days/ha) reindeer capacity in the summer, early autumn and late spring periods prevail in the study area. Basically, these are communities of shrub and marsh types. Shrubs (Salix glauca s. str, S. lanata s. str., S. hastata, Betula nana s. str.), shrubs (Salix reticulata, Vaccinium vitis-idaea s. str.) and forbs (species of the genera Petasites, Pedicularis, Astragalus, Hedysarum, Equisetum, Bistorta).

Comparison of AHP and BWM methods based on ArcGIS for ecological suitability assessment of Panax notoginseng in Yunnan Province, China

Panax notoginseng (P. notoginseng) is a traditional Chinese medicinal material with high economic and medicinal value. There is an urgent need to find new cultivation areas due to continuous cropping barriers and the effects of climate change. This study integrated the geographical environment of Yunnan with the necessary requirements for a suitable habitat for P. notoginseng and comprehensively analyzed climatic, topographical and soil factors. Furthermore, the criteria were weighted and prioritized by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the best worst method (BWM) respectively, and the overlay analysis method was used to present the suitability map in the GIS environment. Two ecological suitability assessment models were established and compared to explore the ecological suitability regionalization of P. notoginseng in Yunnan Province, China. The results showed that:(1) Among the 12 driving factors, precipitation in the hottest season is the most important, followed by average temperature in the coldest season, average temperature in the hottest season, altitude, and annual precipitation. (2) The most suitable, suitable, and unsuitable regions obtained by the AHP-GIS model accounted for respective 17.98%, 33.41%, and 48.61% of the total area of Yunnan. The values for BWM-GIS model were 13.93%, 40.25%, and 45.81%, respectively. (3) The suitable regions obtained by the two models were overlayed and concentrated in Wenshan, Qujing, Kunming, Chuxiong, Baoshan, Dali, Lijiang, Honghe and Yuxi in central Yunnan, while the unsuitable regions were distributed in Xishuangbanna, Puer, Dehong, Diqing, and southwestern Zhaotong. The sensitivity of the assessment model was analyzed, and its reliability was verified by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under curve (AUC). The BWM-GIS model (AUC=0.85) had higher accuracy than AHP-GIS model (AUC=0.822), and was more suitable for ecological suitability analysis of P. notoginseng. Our research results provide a theoretical basis for the rational expansion of cultivation regions of P. notoginseng and agricultural layout planning in Yunnan Province of China.

Assessment of Stock Status, Metal Contents with Human Health Risk of Gudusia chapra from Oxbow lake, Bangladesh

The current study is focused on a comprehensive stock assessment of Gudusia chapra to assess the stock status along with feeding habits, essential minerals content and risk to human health from exposure to heavy metals. A total of 723 specimens from the Bukvora Baor, Bangladesh were used to estimate the total body length (TL) and body weight (W) which ranged from 5.5 to 14.5 cm and 1.62–26.45 g, respectively. The estimated asymptotic length (L∞) of this species (15.38) was in comparison with average length at 10 cm from 723 specimens along with the rate of 0.70 yr−1 for approaching to asymptotic length. The obtained growth performance index (φ) 2.2 indicates that this species is not economically feasible to bring under aquaculture. At an average annual water surface temperature of 28 °C, natural mortality, 1.71yr−1 indicating good ecological suitability of Bukvora oxbow lake (Baor). The estimated current exploitation ratio (0.24) reflected under-exploitation status with total instantaneous mortality (2.25 years−1) and fishing mortality (0.55 years−1). The recruitment pattern of this species was observed across the year, with main peak occurring during the period of April to May. The estimated total steady state biomass (3.91 metric ton) and MSY (4.40 metric ton) based on length-structured virtual population analysis (VPA) length-structured virtual population analysis (VPA) through FiSAT II schedule indicating the sustainable production of this species. The obtained values of proximate compositions (% of protein, fat, Moisture, ash) showed no significant variations during different seasons throughout the year. The monthly measurements of GaSI showed significant alterations (p < 0.05). The value of essential minerals (Na and Ca) was recorded 9.18 mg and 245.19 mg per 100 g of fish flesh, respectively. Target hazard quotient and Cancer risk for all detected heavy metals were far below the recommended levels by United States Environmental Protection Agency. Therefore, the target fish species from oxbow lake is safe and have no human health risk. Therefore, the outcomes of this research would be very worthwhile in carrying out specific management for G. chapra in Baor ecosystems.

Collaborative Optimal Allocation of Urban Land Guide by Land Ecological Suitability: A Case Study of Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Urban land optimization in urban agglomerations plays an important role in promoting territorial spatial planning to achieve high-quality development, land ecological suitability (LES) is one of the important variables influencing its urbanization and needs to be considered in urban growth simulation and modeling. This research proposed a multi-objective urban land optimization (MULO) model based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) which integrates the LES assessment. MULO starts with LES analysis based on a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and a minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Then, two-step linear regression is used to optimize the quantity structure of built-up land. Finally, suitability and compactness are assigned to NSGA-II as objectives to obtain optimal spatial patterns. Taking the example of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, we found that all the newly added built-up land in 2030 is distributed in peri-urban areas around the original settlements, with approximate clustering in the northern part of Guangzhou and the southern part of Foshan under a balanced development scenario. This study highlights the importance of LES in urban growth modeling, and MULO can provide effective support for the spatial planning of urban agglomerations.

Development of a protocol to identify land function based on multifunctionality and suitability analysis: A case study of the Nanyuntai Forest Farm, China

Accurately identifying regional land functions is important for balancing and coordinating multiple ecosystem services. Identification of land functions should be guided by the ecological suitability analysis framework, highlighting the primary ecological function and considering the temporal and spatial trends of land functions to resolve the contradictions among various needs of land ecology, production, and life. Taking Nanyuntai Forest Farm in Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province, as a case study, we used the Analytical Hierarchical Process to construct a systematic and complete land multi-function evaluation and spatial suitability evaluation system, and used the ArcGIS spatial analysis technology to analyze its land function changes from 2011 to 2021. Finally, the results of multifunctionality and suitability analysis were integrated to identify the land's ecological, production, and living functions by constructing the algorithm using Python. Our results showed that the proportions of ecological, production, and living functions of the land in the study area were 56.82, 34.03, and 9.15%, respectively. This study highlighted that the results of land function identification based on comprehensive land-change-trend and spatial suitability analyses were more precise and coordinated. This comprehensive evaluation is a valuable and practical method for decision-makers and land managers to create land use maps and determine high-priority areas that require conservation measures for sustainable management. Moreover, this approach can be practically applied to other planning units.

City-Region Food Systems and Biodiversity Conservation: The Case Study of the Entre-Douro-e-Minho Agrarian Region

Agriculture is the dominant form of land management with at least half of the species in Europe depending on agricultural habitats. Additionally, there is a growing demand for a more sustainable food system. In that context, food system relocalization and City-Region Food Systems (CRFS) are proposed for food resilience and environmental sustainability. This work represents the first attempt to map the relocalization of the potential foodshed (PF) of the Entre-Douro-e-Minho agrarian region, assessing its impacts on landscape heterogeneity and ecological value. The methodological approach, developed in a Geographic Information System, aimed to (1) map the ecological suitability of the study area, (2) propose a PF relocalization scenario, and (3) assess its impacts on land cover changes and landscape structure through landscape metrics. Outcomes of this research reflect land-use optimization concerning ecological suitability for agrarian uses, depicting the strong presence of temporary crops in the landscape. They also emphasize the need for greater detail in Land Use Plans, due to the vulnerability of coastal areas. Moreover, results revealed an increased landscape heterogeneity and related ecological value, highlighting the integration of landscape ecological properties into CRFS planning as a line of research and contributing to the implementation of land use compatible with biodiversity conservation.

Niche and Interspecific Association of the Dominant Species during the Invasion of Alternanthera philoxeroides in the Yangtze River Basin, China

The effects of invasive species on the local community (e.g., structure and stability) are highly environmentally dependent. Invasions of amphibious species usually take place in both xeric and humid environments, yet they are relatively poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed the communities that were dominated by Alternanthera philoxeroides using ecological niche and interspecific association. A total of 66 species and 67 species were recorded in the xeric environment and humid environment, respectively. In both environments, species in family Gramineae, such as Echinochloa crusgalli and Cynodon dactylon, exhibited a higher level of importance values and greater ecological niche widths. The interspecific association and stability of the dominant species were weak and the dominant species were relatively independent of each other. In the xeric environment, A. philoxeroides was more compatible with E. crusgalli and C. dactylon in terms of ecological niche requirements and habitat suitability. In humid habitats, A. philoxeroides had a greater correlation with E. crusgalli, C. dactylon, and Persicaria lapathifolia, suggesting a higher possibility of concomitant occurrence. Overall, we suggested that during the revegetation after A. philoxeroides invasion, E. crusgalli and C. dactylon can be the alternative plants. Meanwhile, alternative control measures for A. philoxeroides invasion in agricultural fields should give more consideration to the use of plants with economic or ecological value.

Um novo modelo espacial para avaliação de adequação ecológica da agricultura irrigada no condado de Jahrom, Irã

ABSTRACT Agricultural suitability assessment is a process that requires spatial data, geo-information tools, and the expertise of a computer scientist to analyze the information. The main objective of this paper is to propose a new model (based on Iranian ecological model and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) model) for ecological suitability evaluation with geometric mean evaluation and calibration methods for better planning management of irrigated lands. Next, to verify and compare the proposed method with other well-known existing, methods such as, Boolean logic and MCE (WLC) models were used. For testing these models, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used. Findings of this research showed that the proposed model by geo-mean and calibration (kappa=0.79) is the best among used methods. On the contrary, arithmetic mean method showed the lowest accuracy (kappa=0). So, these methods (geometric mean evaluation and calibration) have high flexibility in locating agricultural lands. Overall, this study can be used as a basic framework to evaluate ecological suitability for other regions with similar conditions because of its simplicity and high precision.

Environmental stress stimulates microbial activities as indicated by cyclopropane fatty acid enhancement

Soil microbial responses to environmental stress remain a critical question in microbial ecology. The content of cyclopropane fatty acid (CFA) in cytomembrane has been widely used to evaluate environmental stress on microorganisms. Here, we used CFA to investigate the ecological suitability of microbial communities and found a stimulating impact of CFA on microbial activities during wetland reclamation in Sanjiang Plain, Northeastern China. The seasonality of environmental stress resulted in the fluctuation of CFA content in the soil, which suppressed microbial activities due to nutrient loss upon wetland reclamation. After land conversion, the aggravation of temperature stress to microbes increased the CFA content by 5 % (autumn) to 163 % (winter), which led to the suppression of microbial activities by 7 %–47 %. By contrast, the warmer soil temperature and permeability decreased the CFA content by 3 % to 41 % and consequently aggravated the microbial reduction by 15 %–72 % in spring and summer. Complex microbial communities of 1300 CFA-produced species were identified using a sequencing approach, suggesting that soil nutrients dominated the differentiation in these microbial community structures. Further analysis with structural equation modeling highlighted the important function of CFA content to environmental stress and the stimulating influence of CFA induced by environmental stress on microbial activities. Our study shows the biological mechanisms of seasonal CFA content for microbial adaption to environmental stress under wetland reclamation. It advances our knowledge of microbial physiology affecting soil element cycling caused by anthropogenic activities.

Developing a new model for ecological capability evaluation of irrigated lands in Firouzabad Township, Iran

Agricultural planning is a very complex task, since there are numerous goals, which should be achieved simultaneously, and various components and elements, which must be considered at the same time. The process of agricultural suitability evaluation for crop production requires specialized geo-environmental information and the expertise of a computer scientist to analyze and interpret the information. The main objective of this paper is to test a new model (based on Iranian ecological and FAO models) for ecological capability evaluation with geometric mean evaluation for better planning management of irrigated lands. Next, the proposed method was verified and compared with other well-known methods such as the Iranian ecological model with Boolean logic, arithmetic mean, and WLC. To test the models, we used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The test results indicated that the method revised by geometric mean evaluation (overall accuracy %=95 and Kappa coefficient =0.91) was the best among the used methods, and the arithmetic mean method (overall accuracy %=46 and Kappa coefficient =0) had the lowest accuracy. Thus, this method (Geometric mean evaluation) has high flexibility in locating agricultural lands. Overall, this study can be used as a basic method to evaluate ecological suitability for other regions with similar conditions owing to its simplicity and high precision.

An Improved CatBoost-Based Classification Model for Ecological Suitability of Blueberries.

Selecting the best planting area for blueberries is an essential issue in agriculture. To better improve the effectiveness of blueberry cultivation, a machine learning-based classification model for blueberry ecological suitability was proposed for the first time and its validation was conducted by using multi-source environmental features data in this paper. The sparrow search algorithm (SSA) was adopted to optimize the CatBoost model and classify the ecological suitability of blueberries based on the selection of data features. Firstly, the Borderline-SMOTE algorithm was used to balance the number of positive and negative samples. The Variance Inflation Factor and information gain methods were applied to filter out the factors affecting the growth of blueberries. Subsequently, the processed data were fed into the CatBoost for training, and the parameters of the CatBoost were optimized to obtain the optimal model using SSA. Finally, the SSA-CatBoost model was adopted to classify the ecological suitability of blueberries and output the suitability types. Taking a study on a blueberry plantation in Majiang County, Guizhou Province, China as an example, the findings demonstrate that the AUC value of the SSA-CatBoost-based blueberry ecological suitability model is 0.921, which is 2.68% higher than that of the CatBoost (AUC = 0.897) and is significantly higher than Logistic Regression (AUC = 0.855), Support Vector Machine (AUC = 0.864), and Random Forest (AUC = 0.875). Furthermore, the ecological suitability of blueberries in Majiang County is mapped according to the classification results of different models. When comparing the actual blueberry cultivation situation in Majiang County, the classification results of the SSA-CatBoost model proposed in this paper matches best with the real blueberry cultivation situation in Majiang County, which is of a high reference value for the selection of blueberry cultivation sites.

Assessing the ecological suitability of the Irish landscape for the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx)

Assessing the ecological suitability of the Irish landscape for the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx)

Renovation Potential Evaluation and Type Identification of Rural Idle Residential Land: A Case Study of Yuzhong County, Longzhong Loess Hilly Region, China

The land problem is the key to the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, and the land suitability evaluation is the basis for the renovation and classification of idle rural residential areas. Taking Yuzhong County in the Loess Hilly region of Longzhong, China as the research area, this study constructed an idle residential identification matrix by combining the evaluation results of ecological protection suitability, agricultural production suitability, and construction and development suitability, and realizing renovation zoning of rural residents through the advantage type identification method. The results show that: (1) The waste in rural residential is serious, and there are significant phenomena of “one household with two houses” and “one household with multiple houses.” The renovation potential of 1700 idle rural residential patches is 1.18 km2. (2) The spatial differences in the suitability of rural residents in Yuzhong County are significant, and through the rational guidance and planning layout of rural residential renovation, it can provide an important decision-making basis for the rational utilization of rural residents and national land–space planning. (3) The renovation of rural residential should be guided by national land–space planning; make a solid plan for the renovation of rural residential areas; formulate a scientific plan for the renovation, relocation, and reuse of rural “hollow houses”; stimulate the vitality of rural land resources; and promote the revitalization of the countryside and the improvement of the rural living environment.

Diversity, ecology and habitat suitability of Gigantochloa in Central Sumatra

Diversity, ecology and habitat suitability of Gigantochloa in Central Sumatra

Экологическая оценка ареала вавиловии прекрасной (Vavilovia formosa, Fabaceae) в Республике Дагестан (Северный Кавказ): новые геосистемные технологии

The article suggests the original method for ecological suitability evaluation of the habitat for local populations of Vavilovia formosa (Steven) Al.Fed. in the Republic of Dagestan (Northern Caucasus). Particular attention is paid to the development of methodological issues of studying the state of rare species local populations. The improvement of the methodology for constructing predictive ranges and the expert evaluation procedure of the obtained results is illustrated by the example of the eastern range fragment detailed analysis of V. formosa in the North Caucasus. The research has identified the limiting factors complexes that determine the patterns of local populations spatial distribution on slopes of different exposure, steepness and absolute height in models of different spatial resolution. For the first time, the translation of the initial probability values into a new habitat suitability index has been proposed and implemented. This index allows working with probability values in the form of natural numbers, which greatly facilitated their comparison. Evaluation of predictors by their contribution to predictive models of different spatial resolution convincingly shows the need to build a full-term series of models that will include the entire range of available spatial resolutions – from 1/6 to 1/120 degrees. Only such an approach will allow the researcher to obtain the most meaningful information base for a correct assessment of the contribution of predictors, taking into account the levels of spatial climate data generalization. A promising direction for further research can be considered dis-cretization of predictive values of the habitat suitability index by dividing small climatic areas into even smaller ones, for example, with a dimension of 1/360 degrees in longitude and latitude.

Research on the Suitability Evaluation of the Development and Utilization of Regional Selenium-Rich Soil Resources and Spatial Zoning Based on Niche Theory

Relying on the advantages of selenium-rich soil resources, the development of special selenium-rich agricultural industry is an effective measure to implement the rural revitalization strategy. This paper took Yuanzhou district as the research area, based on ecological niche theory, creatively determines the dominant and limiting factors of selenium-rich soil resources development and utilization from three aspects of natural resources endowment, land use conditions and ecological protection, constructed the evaluation index system of selenium-rich soil resources development and utilization and ecological niche suitability index measurement model, and explored the suitability of regional selenium-rich soil resources development and utilization and zoning. The research results show that: (1) The area suitable for exploitation of selenium-rich soil resources in the study area is 174658.4 ha, accounting for 68.83% of the total area, mainly distributed around Yuan River and in the central, northern, northwestern and northeastern areas of the study area. (2) Based on the evaluation results of the suitability of selenium-rich soil resources development and utilization and the development of related agricultural industries, the study area was divided into four functional zones of selenium-rich industrial development: core zone, key zone, development zone and radiation zone. The core zone and key zone are suitable for building selenium-rich agricultural industry demonstration area and selenium-rich products breeding production base, and the development zone and radiation zone can vigorously develop selenium-rich modern agriculture and selenium-rich recreation tourism, which will accelerate the development trend of multi-level and diversified selenium-rich industry in study area.This study can provide scientific, reasonable and feasible ideas and methods for the development and utilization of selenium-rich soil resources and the planning and development of selenium-rich industries in similar areas.

Geography, ecology, and history synergistically shape across-range genetic variation in a calanoid copepod endemic to the north-eastern Oriental.

The center-periphery hypothesis (CPH) predicts that peripheral populations will have lower genetic variation than those at the center of a species' distribution. However, ecological margins do not always coincide with geographical edges when topographies are diverse. Historical climate changes can also strongly affect genetic variation. Here, we examined genetic variation in Phyllodiaptomus tunguidus, a calanoid copepod endemic to the north-eastern Oriental. This species was predicted to exhibit a complex pattern of genetic variation across its range due to the diverse topographies and stable climate history of the north-eastern Oriental. To test this, we used geographic distance to the center of the distribution, current ecological suitability, and climate during the last glacial maximum as geographical, ecological, and historical factors, respectively, in our analyses. We measured genetic diversity and population differentiation using mitochondrial and nuclear markers. This showed that P. tunguidus had 3 refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Such a pattern of multiple refugia complicates the determination of the center and periphery of spatial genetic diversity. Both regression models and redundancy analyses failed to support the CPH. Instead, they showed that geographical, ecological, and historical factors together shaped population genetic structure in this species. Ecological factors explained significantly more genetic variation than did geographical and historical factors-however, all three factors interacted significantly to affect the pattern of genetic variation. The results extend our understanding of the CPH and the extent to which it can explain genetic variation across populations.

Ecological suitability of mangrove ecosystems as mangrove rehabilitation areas in the Sei Carang estuary waters of Tanjungpinang City

The waters of the Sei Carang estuary are water areas that are influenced by tides and have mangrove vegetation along the waters. However, with the conversion of land functions such as bauxite mining and logging activities, the existing mangrove ecosystem is damaged. The purpose of the study was to determine the ecological characteristics of the mangrove ecosystem and to determine the level of ecological suitability of the mangrove ecosystem as a mangrove rehabilitation area in the Sei Carang estuary waters, Tanjungpinang City. This study used a purposive sampling method at 4 stations selected based on land openness and locations that allow for rehabilitation. Parameters in this study include mangrove type, substrate, salinity, tidal type, pH, current velocity, and biota objects. Based on observations, there were 10 types of mangroves found. The results of observations that have been calculated using the mangrove rehabilitation land suitability matrix show that each station can be said to be suitable for the rehabilitation area with the distribution of the suitability value of mangrove rehabilitation land showing a dominant suitability of S1 (Highly Appropriate).

Analysis of the impact of climate change on the distribution and active compound content of the plateau medicinal plant Nardostachys jatamansi (D. Don) DC

The production and accumulation of secondary metabolites of medicinal plants are regulated by environmental factors. Analyzing the effects of climate change on the suitable habitats and active compound of Nardostachys jatamansi (D. Don) DC. is essential for their future conservation and cultivation. This study predicted changes in the scale of distribution of N. jatamansi under different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario models over time. In addition, this study analyzed differences in active compound content by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) methods and changes in gene expression by transcriptome sequencing across different habitats. The results reveal that elevation, mean temperature of coldest quarter, and precipitation of warmest quarter cumulatively contributed 90.1% to the species distribution models (SDMs), and were the critical environmental variables affecting the distribution of N. jatamansi. The SDMs predicted that N. jatamansi habitats will decrease in the future. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, highly suitable areas in China for N. jatamansi growth will decrease to 7.734375 × 104 km2 by the 2061–2080 s period. This study also observed that the contents of active compounds increased with ecological suitability, with the nardosinone content in N. jatamansi reaching 0.67% in highly suitable areas. Analysis of differential gene expression in N. jatamansi indicated that the expression levels of genes in the terpene synthesis pathway genes were significantly different across grades of suitable areas. Together, the combined results of SDMs analysis, chemical analysis, and transcriptome analysis in N. jatamansi reveal that environmental changes affect the expression levels of genes related to terpene gene synthesis pathways, thereby changing the contents of active compounds. Overall, these findings provide a reference for the conservation of wild resources of N. jatamansi and the improvement of the quality of cultivated N. jatamansi.

Maximum Entropy Modeling for the Prediction of Potential Plantation Distribution of Arabica coffee under the CMIP6 Mode in Yunnan, Southwest China

As one of three major beverages in the world, coffee ranks first in terms of production, consumption, and economic output. However, little is known about the habitat of Arabica coffee and the key environmental factors that influence its ecological distribution. Based on climatic, topographic, and soil data, the Arabica coffee planting regions with different levels of ecological suitability in different periods, and environmental factors that have the largest impact on ecological suitability were simulated using the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the ecologically suitable regions were mainly determined by climatic (max temperature of warmest month and annual precipitation) factors, followed by terrain (slope, altitude, and aspect) and soil (silt) factors. Under the current scenario, the most suitable and suitable regions accounted for 4.68% and 14.29% of the entire area, respectively, mainly in the western, southeastern, southern, and southwestern parts of Yunnan. The highly suitable regions shrank by 0.59 × 104–2.16 × 104 km2 under SSPs245 in 2061–2080 and SSPs585 in 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. By contrast, the highly suitable regions increased by 0.33 × 104–9.65 × 104 km2 under other scenarios. The suitable regions migrated towards higher-altitude and higher-latitude regions. Predicting the potential distribution of Arabica coffee based on a species distribution model (MaxEnt) can inform the implementation of long-term plantation development plans to mitigate the effects of climate change on the distribution of Arabica coffee.