Ecological Variables Research Articles

Do changes in land use and climate change overlap? An analysis of the World Bank Data

AbstractLand use change (LUC), including deforestation, agriculture, and urbanization, is a major contributor to climate change (CC). This change in land use has impacts on food, water, and energy systems, creating a complex interconnected web of issues. This study aimed to investigate the global link between LUC and CC from 1990 to 2012. Using time‐series data from the World Bank, LUC was represented by irrigated land, arable lands, and forest areas, while CC was represented by CO2 emissions. Moreover, the relationship between economic growth in high‐income and low‐income countries and LUC and CC was examined in this study. Based on the findings of this study, in low‐income countries, the intensity of LUC is higher in comparison with high‐income countries. Meanwhile, CO2 emissions are increasing in middle‐income and high‐income countries. Economic growth is closely related to CO2 emissions in countries with different levels of income. The study indicated that managing land use is of high importance to mitigate CO2 emissions globally. According to the findings, recent LUC has shown more obvious effects on ecological variables than CC. Although LUC is not inherently directly related to CC, humans change land use, especially in terms of land management, to adapt to CC, and these changes will inevitably bring many environmental impacts. This study contributes significantly to advancing the understanding of the complex relationship between CC and LUC, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches in policy development. These measures are crucial to achieving resilience and meeting global CC reduction targets.

Association Between COVID-19 and Self-Harm: Nationwide Retrospective Ecological Spatiotemporal Study in Metropolitan France.

The COVID-19 pandemic has not been associated with increases in suicidal behavior at the national, regional, or county level. However, previous studies were not conducted on a finer scale or adjusted for ecological factors. Our objective was to assess the fine-scale spatiotemporal association between self-harm and COVID-19 hospitalizations, while considering ecological factors. Using the French national hospital discharge database, we extracted data on hospitalizations for self-harm of patients older than 10 years (from 2019 to 2021) or for COVID-19 (from 2020 to 2021) in metropolitan France. We first calculated monthly standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for COVID-19 between March 2020 and December 2021, using a Besag, York, and Mollié spatiotemporal model. Next, we entered the SIRs into an ecological regression in order to test the association between hospital admissions for self-harm and those for COVID-19. Lastly, we adjusted for ecological variables with time lags of 0 to 6 months. Compared with a smoothed SIR of ≤1, smoothed SIRs from 1 to 3, from 3 to 4, and greater than 4 for COVID-19 hospital admissions were associated with a subsequent increase in hospital admissions for self-harm, with a time lag of 2 to 4 months, 4 months, and 6 months, respectively. A high SIR for hospital admissions for COVID-19 was a risk factor for hospital admission for self-harm some months after the epidemic peaks. This finding emphasizes the importance of monitoring and seeking to prevent suicide attempts outside the epidemic peak periods.

An unusually large genome from an unusually large stonefly: a chromosome-length genome assembly for the giant salmonfly, Pteronarcys californica (Plecoptera: Pteronarcyidae).

Pteronarcys californica (Newport 1848) is commonly referred to as the giant salmonfly and is the largest species of stonefly (Insecta: Plecoptera) in the western United States. Historically, it was widespread and abundant in western rivers, but populations have experienced a substantial decline in the past few decades, becoming locally extirpated in numerous rivers in Utah, Colorado, and Montana. Although previous research has explored the ecological variables conducive to the survivability of populations of the giant salmonfly, a lack of genomic resources hampers exploration of how genetic variation is spread across extant populations. To accelerate research on this imperiled species, we present a de novo chromosomal-length genome assembly of P. californica generated from PacBio HiFi sequencing and Hi-C chromosome conformation capture. Our assembly includes 14 predicted pseudo chromosomes and 98.8% of Insecta universal core orthologs. At 2.40 gigabases, the P. californica assembly is the largest of available stonefly assemblies, highlighting at least 9.5-fold variation in assembly size across the order. Repetitive elements (REs) account for much of the genome size increase in P. californica relative to other stonefly species, with the content of Class I retroelements alone exceeding the entire assembly size of all but two other species studied. We also observed preliminary suborder-specific trends in genome size that merit testing with more robust taxon sampling.

Integrating adult occurrence and reproduction data to identify conservation measures for amphibians.

Monitoring programs are pivotal to establishing sound management. Due to economic, logistic, and time limitations, monitoring programs often overlook differences among life-history stages. However, species occurrence does not necessarily mean population viability, and it is unclear to what extent monitoring programs that do not consider separately adult presence and reproduction provide effective management indications. Unfortunately, collecting data on certain life stages requires high sampling effort, leading to a trade-off between model reliability and resources needed for monitoring. We collected data on presence and reproduction of amphibians by monitoring 207 waterbodies in Lombardy (northern Italy) in 2017-2022. We then used multistate occupancy models to test whether certain environmental features, namely, pond area, hydroperiod, forest cover, shade, aquatic vegetation, and predators' presence, differentially affected adult occurrence and breeding probabilities of multiple amphibian species. To assess optimal sampling efforts, we modeled the detection probabilities of adults and reproduction across multiple species. Finally, we identified the optimal monitoring strategy under different scenarios of resource availability, comparing adult-only monitoring versus joint assessment of the occurrence of adults and reproduction. In many cases, the main drivers of adult occurrence and reproduction did not coincide because most investigated ecological variables affected one life stage or the other. Forest area, for instance, increased occurrence probabilities of adults of the endemic Rana latastei but showed no effect on their reproduction probabilities. Quantitative estimates of the sampling effort showed that occurrence of adults was easier to spot in 4 out of 7 species. Multicriteria decision analyses showed that when resources were scarce, monitoring adults was the optimal strategy for those 4 species. Conversely, with more resources, monitoring both adults and reproduction emerged as the best strategy for all the considered species. Integrated monitoring of adults and reproduction is essential to comprehensively identify effective conservation measures for amphibians.

Adaptation Test and Genetic Parameters Estimation of Chili (Capsicum spp.) by Automation Drip Irrigation System in UG Technopark, Cianjur

Bean stew efficiency in 2019-2021 is vacillated because of the utilization of improper assortments and ecological variable. This study plans to decide assortments that have ideal development and creation at UG Technopark and to decide the hereditary variety between bean stew assortments. This study used a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three blocks and one factor made up of eight chili varieties. The information examination utilized in this review was investigation of varians (ANOVA) at 5 and 1% level and the post hoc test utilized Duncan's Various Reach Test at 5%. Noticed information additionally were broke down utilizing coefficient of hereditary difference, coefficient of phenotypic change and heritability examination. The results showed that the Bonita variety has the highest plant height, dichotomous height, and the largest stem diameter. Bishop's crown variation had the biggest character of crown width, length and width of leaves meanwhile Ayesha variety had the fastest flowering time. On the fruit characters, Bishop’s crown variety had the highest fruit weight per plant and fruit diameter. Reisa varieties had the highest fruit weight. Each character had a wide range of genetic coefficients of variation with values ranging from 16.50 to 77.96%, high phenotypic coefficents of variation with values ranging from 13.93 to 86.38% and high broad meaning heritability values ranging from 0.43 to 1.00.

Suicide and Socio-demography: An Ecological Study from India

Background: Recent studies are coming out assessing the relationship between suicide rates and various ecological variables. However, information on the association between suicide rate and ecological variables in India has been limited. We aimed to measure the association of suicide rate with religion, literacy, gross domestic product, human development index, life expectancy, fertility, urbanization, and unemployment in India. Methods: We extracted 36 states or union territories of India and their suicide rate, the proportion of Hindu and Muslim populations, literacy rate, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), Human Development Index (HDI), life expectancy, fertility rate, urbanization, and unemployment rate. We assessed the association with rate and other ecological variables mentioned. Results: Suicide rates were positively correlated with the percentage of Hindu population in the state (rs = 0.38, p = .022), literacy rate (rs = 0.368, p = .027), and GDP (rs = 0.61, p = .001), whereas they were negatively correlated with fertility (rs = –0.442, p = .039) and unemployment rate (rs = –0.4, p = .015). We did not find any significant association between suicide rate and Muslim populations, HDI, life expectancy, and urbanization. Conclusion: This study’s findings identified several associations between ecological variables and suicide rates. However, based on the nature of the analysis, a cautious interpretation and further investigations are warranted.

GLocal: A global development dataset of subnational administrative areas

The purpose of the GLocal dataset is to enable research in international development that requires both global scope and local precision. Leveraging modern geospatial analysis tools, we process a diverse array of sources to provide researchers with a growing set of economic, demographic, ecological and socio-political variables for geographic units relevant to public policy. We provide separate data files for different levels of administrative and periodic aggregation, along with ad-hoc files with more detailed information on specific topics. In this data descriptor paper, we discuss both our data processing methodologies and validation pipelines, and provide a short case study to illustrate the research potential of the dataset. We also introduce a simple web app, glocal.streamlit.app, which offers a user-friendly interface for exploring and visualizing the dataset. Given the growing number of public and granular sources of relevance for international development research, we hope to continue adding features and expand the GLocal dataset in the future.

Facile Integration of Hanztsch's Switch-Off/On Modeled Fluorogenic Probe for Feasible Tagging and Tracking of the Midodrine Drug in Different Matrices; First Evaluation of the Method's Greenness, Whiteness, Blueness, Quantum Yield, and Tablets' Content Homogeneity.

The proposed investigation follows a certain methodology to guarantee that the procedure employed is sustainable and green. It is noteworthy to mention that various tools have been implemented as potential indicators of environmental sustainability (greenness and whiteness). From a novelty viewpoint, a new tool, BAGI, for the method's blueness evaluation was applied to the planned method and showed a high applicability score. Fortunately, the WAC concept, which combines ecological and functional variables using the Green/Red/Blue design (RBG 12 tool), identifies the established analytical approach as white. In the planned study, a new, green, simple, nano-trace-sensitive, original fluorimetric methodology was established to analyze and assess midodrine hydrochloride content in different matrices. Midodrine's primary amine moiety reacts with Diacetylmethane/Oxymethylene reagent in an acetate buffer, which leads to generating a fluorescent dihydrolutidine derivative (Hantzsch-named reaction). Consequently, the signal strength of this compound was quantified at 487 nm, with an excitation wavelength of 426 nm. This analysis indicated that the technique exhibited linearity within the range of 0.05 to 1.1 µg mL-1 concentrations, accompanied by remarkably good sensitivity values (LOD and LOQ). The methodology employed in this examination was subjected to validation following the rules recognized by ICH. From the perspective of pharmacy and chemistry, the method presented in this study was successfully employed to analyze commercially available tablets, oral drops, and human fluids. The outcomes obtained demonstrated satisfactory recovery rates without any interference from excipients. Following the USP recommendations, the intended technique was finally implemented to explore the content homogeneity evaluation.

Water temperature and salt ions respectively drive the community assembly of bacterial generalists and specialists in diverse plateau lakes

Plateau lakes (e.g., freshwater and saltwater lakes) are formed through intricate processes and harbor diverse microorganisms that mediate aquatic ecosystem functions. The adaptive mechanisms of lake microbiota to environmental changes and the ecological impacts of such changes on microbial community assembly are still poorly understood in plateau regions. This study investigated the structure and assembly of planktonic bacterial communities in 24 lakes across the Qinghai-Tibetan and Inner Mongolia Plateaus, with particular focus on habitat generalists, opportunists, and specialists. High-throughput sequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA genes revealed that bacterial generalists had a lower species number (2196) but higher alpha diversity than the specialist and opportunist counterparts. Taxonomic dissimilarity and phylogenetic diversity analyses unraveled less pronounced difference in the community composition of bacterial generalists compared to the specialist and opportunist counterparts. Geographical scale (14.4 %) and water quality (12.6 %) emerged as major ecological variables structuring bacterial communities. Selection by water temperature and related variables, including mean annual temperature, elevation, longitude, and latitude, mainly shaped the assembly of bacterial generalists. Ecological drift coupled with selection by salt ions and related variables, including total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, and salinity, predominantly drove the assembly of bacterial specialists and opportunists. This study uncovers distinct bacterial responses to interacting ecological variables in diverse plateau lakes and the ecological processes structuring bacterial communities across various lake habitats under anthropogenic disturbance or climate change.

WITHDRAWN: Examining the Effects of Land Use, Salinity Gradient, and Water Pollution on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Urbanized Estuaries

Estuaries are significant contributors to greenhouse gases (GHGs) in waterways. However, the effects of human activities and ecological variables on GHG emissions in estuaries remain poorly understood. This study examines the patterns and causes of GHG emissions in the Scheldt Estuary, focusing on the roles of salinity, water contamination, and land use. The findings indicate that salinity negatively impacts the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O), likely due to reduced salt levels and cleaner water upstream. Water contamination's influence on GHG emissions was more pronounced in cleaner, upriver sites compared to saltier downstream locations. Specifically, CO2 emissions quadrupled, and N2O emissions tripled as water conditions worsened from healthy (near the mouth, bordered by agricultural land) to polluted (farther downstream, bordered by urban areas). Methane (CH4) emissions were significantly higher in aquatic locations than in salty sites. The reduced impact of contamination from downstream to the river mouth may be due to increasing population density. Urban sites emitted about twice as much CO2 and N2O as those in natural and industrial areas. Machine learning analysis also showed that fertilizers and organic enrichment, along with salinity, significantly increased GHG emissions. These results highlight the importance of understanding the interplay of salinity, water contamination, and land use in influencing GHG emissions in coastal ecosystems.

Evolutionary drivers of sex-specific parasite prevalence in wild birds.

Males and females often differ in ecology, behaviour and lifestyle, and these differences are expected to lead to sex differences in parasite susceptibility. However, neither the sex differences in parasite prevalence, nor their ecological and evolutionary drivers have been investigated across a broad range of taxa using phylogenetically corrected analyses. Using the most extensive dataset yet that includes 755 prevalence estimates from 151 wild bird species in a meta-analytic framework, here we compare sex differences in blood and gastrointestinal parasites. We show that despite sex differences in parasite infection being frequently reported in the literature, only Haemoproteus infections were more prevalent in females than in males. Notably, only seasonality was strongly associated with the sex-specific parasite prevalence of both Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus, where birds showed greater female bias in prevalence during breeding periods compared to the non-breeding period. No other ecological or sexual selection variables were associated with sex-specific prevalence of parasite prevalence. We suggest that much of the variation in sex-biased prevalence could be idiosyncratic, and driven by local ecology and behavioural differences of the parasite and the host. Therefore, breeding ecology and sexual selection may only have a modest influence on sex-different parasite prevalence across wild birds.

The web of conflict-related interactions in Colombia: exploring causal linkages between ecological and social variables by the qualitative loop analysis.

In Colombia, the long-lasting internal conflict heavily shaped the socio-ecological context and imposed relationships that persisted after the peace agreement was signed in 2016. One question of interest is whether policies or interventions conceived to attain desirable goals for the post-conflict society may be effective or, rather, if the constraints imposed by the conflict scenario might produce unintended effects, either on the environmental or the social side. To explore this issue, we envisaged the socio-ecological system as a parsimonious set of characteristic ecological and social variables within the conflict-related framework and reconstructed their interactions, exploiting elicitation-based information and the literature. We visualized the resulting interactive networks as signed digraphs. Applying the qualitative technique of loop analysis combined with numerical simulations, we predicted the response of the system to policies as drivers of change, such as subsidized credit to capital-intensive activities or policies that increase small farming competitiveness and access to markets. Highlighting causal linkages reveals that the persistence of conflict factors may produce unexpected interdependencies between licit and illicit activities and that, only in a few cases, the persistence of these mechanisms allows synergies between desirable goals.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Functional traits and ecological niches as correlates of the interspecific growth–mortality trade‐off among seedlings of 14 tropical tree species

Abstract The interspecific trade‐off between growth versus mortality rates of tree species is thought to be driven by functional biology and to contribute to species ecological niche differentiation. Yet, functional trait variation is often not strongly correlated with growth and mortality, and few studies have investigated the relationships of both traits and niches, specifically encompassing above and belowground resources, to the trade‐off itself. These relationships are particularly relevant for seedlings, which must often survive resource limitation to reach larger size classes. We investigated the functional basis of the interspecific growth–mortality trade‐off and its relationship with ecological niches for seedlings of 14 tree species in a tropical forest in southwest China. We found evidence for an interspecific growth–mortality trade‐off at the seedling stage using 15 functional traits and 15 ecological niche variables. None of the organ‐level traits correlated with growth, mortality, nor the trade‐off, whereas specific stem length (SSL), a biomass allocation trait, was the only trait to have a significant correlation (positive). Moreover, light‐defined niches were not correlated with growth, mortality or the trade‐off, but soil‐defined niches did. Species at the faster growth/higher mortality end of the trade‐off were associated with higher fertility defined by lower soil bulk density and slope, and higher soil organic matter concentration and soil total nitrogen. Our findings indicate the importance of stem elongation and soil fertility for growth, mortality and their trade‐off at the seedling stage in this Asian tropical forest. Our findings contrast with analogous studies in neotropical forests showing the importance of photosynthesis‐related leaf traits related to insolation. Therefore, the functional drivers of demographic rates and trade‐offs, as well as their consequences for ecological niches, can vary among forests, likely owing to differences in biogeography, canopy disturbance rates, topography and soil properties. Moreover, the effects of functional trait variation on demographic rates and trade‐offs may be better revealed when biomass allocation is accounted for in a whole‐plant context. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

A sentinel watching over inter-tidal seagrass phenology across Western Europe and North Africa

Seagrasses are marine flowering plants that form extensive meadows from the inter-tidal zone up to ~50 m depth. As biological and ecological Essential Biodiversity Variables, seagrass cover and composition provide a wide range of ecosystem services. Inter-tidal seagrass meadows provide services to many ecosystems, so monitoring their occurrence, extent, condition and diversity can be used to indicate the biodiversity and health of local ecosystems. Current global estimates of seagrass extent and recent reviews either do not mention inter-tidal seagrasses and their seasonal variation, or combine them with sub-tidal seagrasses. Here, using high-spatial and high-temporal resolution satellite data (Sentinel-2), we demonstrate a method for consistently mapping inter-tidal seagrass meadows and their phenology at a continental scale. We were able to highlight varying seasonal patterns that are observable across a 23° latitudinal range. Timings of peaks in seagrass extent varied by up to 5 months, rather than the previously assumed marginal to non-existent variation in peak timing. These results will aid management by providing high-resolution spatio-temporal monitoring data to better inform seagrass conservation and restoration. They also highlight the high level of seasonal variability in inter-tidal seagrass, meaning combination with sub-tidal seagrass for global assessments will likely produce misleading or incorrect estimates.

Can remotely sensed catchment to lake area ratios predict mercury levels in subarctic fishes?

Mercury concentrations ([Hg]) in fish reflect a complex array of interacting biogeochemical and ecological variables. In northern regions where fish are a critical subsistence food, understanding and predicting fish [Hg] can be particularly difficult, largely due to a paucity of comprehensive data associated with the logistical challenges of field sampling. Building on previous work where we elucidated causal relationships between fish [Hg] and a variety of catchment, water quality, and ecological variables in subarctic lakes, we investigated whether using only ratios of catchment area to lake area (CA:LA) can predict [Hg] in northern freshwater fish species. As CA:LA can be sensed remotely, they may be more feasible and practical to obtain than field data in far northern regions. Our study included thirteen remote lakes that represent a CA:LA gradient of 6.2–423.5 within an ∼66,000 km2 subarctic region of Northwest Territories, Canada. We found that size-standardized [Hg] in three widespread fish species, including Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), Walleye (Sander vitreus), and Northern Pike (Esox lucius), were significantly and positively related to CA:LA (p < 0.007, r2 = 67–80%), indicating higher fish [Hg] in smaller lakes surrounded by relatively larger catchments. Our findings provide compelling evidence that remotely sensed CA:LA can be used to predict [Hg] in northern fishes and aid in prioritizing understudied and subsistence fishing lakes of the Canadian subarctic for [Hg] monitoring programs.

Ecological and genetic variables co-vary with social group identity to shape the gut microbiome of a pair-living primate.

Primates exhibit diverse social systems that are intricately linked to their biology, behavior, and evolution, all of which influence the acquisition and maintenance of their gut microbiomes (GMs). However, most studies of wild primate populations focus on taxa with relatively large group sizes, and few consider pair-living species. To address this gap, we investigate how a primate's social system interacts with key environmental, social, and genetic variables to shape the GMin pair-living, red-bellied lemurs (Eulemur rubriventer). Previous research on this species suggests that social interactions within groups influence interindividual microbiome similarity; however, the impacts of other nonsocial variables and their relative contributions to gut microbial variation remain unclear. We sequenced the 16S ribosomal RNA hypervariable V4-V5 region to characterize the GM from 26 genotyped individuals across 11social groups residing in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar. We estimated the degree to which sex, social group identity, genetic relatedness, dietary diversity, and home range proximity were associated with variation in the gut microbial communities residing in red-bellied lemurs. All variables except sex played a significant role in predicting GM composition. Our model had high levels of variance inflation, inhibiting our ability to determine which variables were most predictive of gut microbial composition. This inflation is likely due to red-bellied lemurs' pair-living, pair-bonded social system that leads to covariation among environmental, social, and genetic variables. Our findings highlight some of the factors that predict GMcomposition in a tightly bonded, pair-living species and identify variables that require further study. We propose that future primate microbiome studies should simultaneously consider environmental, social, and genetic factors to improve our understanding of the relationships among sociality, the microbiome, and primate ecology and evolution.

Determination of water quality and trophic level by using epilithic diatoms in Büyükçekmece Reservoir

In this study, the composition, distribution, and seasonal changes of epilithic diatoms were investigated to reveal the water quality and trophic level of Büyükçekmece Reservoir, which is one of the essential freshwater sources for İstanbul, Türkiye. Water and diatom samples were collected on the same day from all stations, and sampling was only on one day for a specific sampling season. Seventy-six taxa belonging to 30 genera were identified, two of which were centric and 74 were pennate diatoms; 12 of the epilithic species were newly-reported diatoms for the Büyükçekmece Reservoir. The highest number of epilithic diatom species was obtained in November, and the lowest was in February. According to relative abundance, Gomphonella olivacea was abundant in February, Cymbella lange-bertalotii in May, and Cocconeis placentula in August and November. According to the diatom-based water quality indices, the Büyükçekmece Reservoir belongs to I (very good, oligotrophic) and II (good, meso-oligotrophic) water quality classes. Redundancy analysis was used to reveal the association of epilithic diatom species with ecological variables, and it was determined that Silicate-Si, Ammonium-N, and temperature were the most effective variables in the distribution of epilithic diatoms.

Molecular detection of Cryptosporidium parvum in wild rodents (Phyllotis darwini) inhabiting protected and rural transitional areas in north-central Chile

Wild rodents often harbor Cryptosporidium species that can be transmitted to multiple mammal hosts. In Chile, little is known about Cryptosporidium in wild rodents, and available studies have been focused on morphological findings with no molecular-based evidence. A longitudinal survey was conducted between 2021 and 2022 to investigate the occurrence of Cryptosporidium spp. in populations of the Darwin's leaf-eared mouse (Phyllotis darwini) living in protected and rural transitional areas in north-central Chile, using staining and molecular methods. A total of 247 fecal samples were collected and examined by the modified Ziehl–Neelsen (ZN) staining test, 54 of which were positive for Cryptosporidium-like oocysts. Molecular analyses were carried out by PCR of the partial 18S ribosomal RNA and 60 kDa glycoprotein (gp60) genes. Cryptosporidium infection was confirmed in 34 samples (13.7 %) based on the PCR amplification, and individual (i.e., sex, and body mass index) and ecological variables (i.e., type of site and season) were not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Using the nucleotide sequencing of the partial 18S rRNA gene, Cryptosporidium parvum was identified in nine isolates. Also, C. parvum subgenotype family IIa was determined in seven samples by the partial gp60 gene, including the subtype IIaA17G4R1 in two samples. This is the first molecular evidence of Cryptosporidium parvum IIa in Phyllotis darwini in Chile. These results indicate potential cross-species transmition between wild rodents and domestic-wild animals in north-central Chile. More research is needed to understand better the role of wild rodents in the transmission of Cryptosporidium spp. in Chile.

Among-species variation in six decades of changing migration timings explained through ecology, life-history and local migratory abundance.

Species exploiting seasonal environments must alter timings of key life-history events in response to large-scale climatic changes in order to maintain trophic synchrony with required resources. Yet, substantial among-species variation in long-term phenological changes has been observed. Advancing from simply describing such variation towards predicting future phenological responses requires studies that rigorously quantify and explain variation in the direction and magnitude of changing timings across diverse species in relation to key ecological and life-history variables. Accordingly, we fitted multi-quantile regressions to 59 years of multi-species data on spring and autumn bird migration timings through northern Scotland. We demonstrate substantial variation in changes in timings among 72 species, and tested whether such variation can be explained by species ecology, life-history and changes in local abundance. Consistent with predictions, species that advanced their migration timing in one or both seasons had more seasonally restricted diet types, fewer suitable breeding habitat types, shorter generation lengths and capability to produce multiple offspring broods per year. In contrast, species with less seasonally restricted diet types and that produce single annual offspring broods, showed no change. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, long-distance and short-distance migrants advanced migration timings similarly. Changes in migration timing also varied with changes in local migratory abundance, such that species with increasing seasonal abundance apparently altered their migration timing, whilst species with decreasing abundance did not. Such patterns broadly concur with expectation given adaptive changes in migration timing. However, we demonstrate that similar patterns can be generated by numerical sampling given changing local abundances. Any apparent phenology-abundance relationships should, therefore, be carefully validated and interpreted. Overall, our results show that migrant bird species with differing ecologies and life-histories showed systematically differing phenological changes over six decades contextualised by large-scale environmental changes, potentially facilitating future predictions and altering temporal dynamics of seasonal species co-occurrences.

The pivotal role of water potential in phenology and seed germination of Abies spectabilis in the western Himalayan treeline region

Abies spectabilis (East Himalayan Fir), a dominant timber-producing species in the Himalayas, plays a dynamic role in ecological balance and sustains various habitats across temperate to subalpine altitudes. Himalayan montane forests express signs of changes in the growth, regeneration, and population density of forest tree species due to ongoing climate change, including its upper distribution limit. The research was conducted at 30°11´02˝N and 79°39′36˝E, ranging from 3,100 to 3,500 m asl elevation in the treeline ecotone of western Himalaya. The study presents a comprehensive perspective on how water availability and its intricate interactions with climatic and ecological variables shape the dynamics of treeline ecosystems. The study’s phytosociological analysis of treeline sites revealed the complex interplay between species composition, adaptability, and regeneration potential. The eco-physiological aspects of water balance were thoroughly explored, underscoring how plants employ various strategies to cope with changing water availability. The soil moisture content ranged from 32.17 to 73.50%. The dynamic nature of water potential (pre-dawn (ΨPD) and mid-day (ΨMD)) across seasons and years reflects and varies between −0.13 and − 1.25 MPa, the species’ ability to adjust and manage water balance according to environmental shifts. Osmotic potential at full turgor varied from −0.72 to −1.77 MPa, these adjustments are crucial for key life cycle events of vegetative and reproductive phases of species. The strong correlation of water potential (Ψ) and phenophases emphasizes the importance of water status in regulating these vital processes. Furthermore, the study delved into the maturation and germination processes, highlighting the significance of Ψ and moisture content in seed development and germination success. The maximum germination of 46.33% was observed when the seed moisture content was 30.90 ± 3.11%. The observed correlations between cone characteristics and seed parameters indicate the existence of trade-offs that impact seed size, weight, and germination capacity, contributing to the overall fitness of the species.