Ecological Restoration Programs Research Articles

Reintroduction of native species in an ecological restoration program from a quartzite area of campos rupestres

Reintroduction of native species in an ecological restoration program from a quartzite area of campos rupestres

Multidimensional patterns of bird diversity and its driving forces in the Yangtze river basin of China

Biodiversity is fundamental to human well-being and economic development. The Yangtze River, the largest river in China, faces biodiversity loss due to habitat degradation, climate change, and other anthropogenic threats. However, the long-term changes in the region's biodiversity remain poorly understood. Here, we constructed an optimized living planet index (LPIO) by combining Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling and Random Forest Modeling. Using data from a monitoring network of 536 sites, we observed an increasing trend in terrestrial bird diversity and functional complexity across the entire watershed from 2011 to 2020. Our findings indicate that a large-scale ecological restoration program has contributed to increases in terrestrial and aquatic bird diversity in the Yangtze River Basin. In contrast, bird diversity in the downstream area has decreased by 2.83 ​%, largely due to a rapid decline in wetland birds. The degradation of wetland habitats and insufficient conservation measures have negatively impacted bird diversity in the downstream region. This suggests that although there have been significant improvements in terrestrial bird diversity, more effective wetland restoration is necessary for biodiversity conservation. We recommend optimizing the national large-scale biodiversity monitoring network and increasing the number of upstream monitoring sites.

Trajectories of Terrestrial Vegetation Productivity and Its Driving Factors in China's Drylands

AbstractClimate change and large‐scale ecological restoration programs have profoundly influenced vegetation greening and gross primary productivity (GPP) in China's drylands. However, the specific pathways through which climatic factors and vegetation greening influence GPP remain poorly understood. This study examines the spatiotemporal changes in GPP across China's drylands from 2001 to 2020 and investigates the direct and indirect effects of climatic factors and leaf area index (LAI) on GPP. The results reveal that the overall improvement in vegetation cover has positively increased GPP in these regions. Although the direct effects of climatic factors on GPP are minimal, they exert a substantial indirect effect by regulating vegetation growth, highlighting that LAI is a key intermediary in mediating the effects of climatic factors on GPP. Furthermore, these complex interactions vary significantly along the aridity gradient. This study emphasizes the necessity of comprehensively considering the intricate interactions among multiple climate and vegetation factors.

Trends in planted native tree biomass established in a tropical Andes city water basins

Studying tree growth processes helps us evaluate the success of restoration efforts in recovering ecosystem processes such as carbon accumulation. Here, we study aboveground biomass dynamics in four common‐endemic tree species from the tropical Andes (Quercus humboldtii, Retrophyllum rospigliosii, Citharexylum subflavescens, and Croton magdalenensis), established in the main water supply basins of Medellín, Colombia. We use measurements from 19 permanent plots from five censuses between 2010 and 2023 to develop biomass equations as a function of t for each species (B = f[t]) by combining tree growth models of diameter (D) as a function of time (t) and pre‐existing allometric equations of biomass (B) developed in the same site as a function of D and wood density (ρ). We found that, because of initially higher growth rates characteristic of species belonging to the fast‐growing end of the fast‐slow growth economic spectrum, C. magdalenensis and C. subflavescens were the species with higher biomass accumulation at 13 years (142 and 132 kg, respectively). However, the potential of the slow‐growing species (Q. humboldtii and R. rospigliosii) for carbon sequestration initiatives in the long term was highlighted. To our knowledge, this is the first study in the region examining the dynamics of aboveground biomass in Andean restoration programs. It combines growth models and allometric equations, which can be useful for measuring the success of the implementation of ecological restoration programs and evaluating the need to apply adaptive management strategies.

Non-consistent changes and drivers of water-sediment fluxes in the yarlung tsangpo river basin of the Tibetan plateau

Variations in water-sediment fluxes and their driving mechanisms are critical to riverine ecosystems and management. Yet, current estimates of the response of water and sediment flux remain insufficiently quantified, limited by the scarcity of long-term hydrological records in the alpine regions. Here, we leverage decadal observations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, to investigate the dynamic shifts in water-sediment fluxes from 1955 to 2020 and elucidate their linkage to a warming and wetting climate, snowmelt, and environmental greening (including natural- and human-induced greening) in the different spatial and temporal scale. Major drivers of shifts in water-sediment flux are identified by using wavelet coherence and variance partitioning of redundancy analysis. The results highlight that observational data from four gauging stations (i.e., Lhaze, Nugesha, Yangcun, and Nuxia) uncover a substantial decrease in suspended sediment load (SSL) (Nuxia: 12.302 × 104 t/yr, P < 0.05) in the downstream with consistently increasing runoff and precipitation. Especially during the flood season (July to September), the dam/reservoir construction caused a median decrease in SSL. Dropping sediment offsets the slightly rising SSLs in the midstream and upstream (upper Yangcun: 14.8 × 104 t/yr, P > 0.05). Up to 80% of sediment was sourced from the middle stretch between Lhaze and Nugesha despite it supplied with lower regional runoff generation. Nevertheless, the downstream zone experienced the transition from a sediment source to a deposition area around 1998. We further found the negative and positive effects between water-sediment fluxes and revegetation, and demonstrated that employing NDVI to evaluate human-induced vegetation greening might overestimate the impact of ecological restoration programs on water-sediment fluxes. Attribution analysis indicates that precipitation was not the primary contributor to runoff and SSL changes in all stretches of the basin. In the upstream, temperature and associated snowmelt can be more important than precipitation. Compared to before 1998, precipitation is still the primary driver of change in downstream runoff change after 1998, whilst vegetation restoration, rather than precipitation, dominates the reduction in downstream SSL. These findings have far-reaching significance for watershed managers and decision-makers in terms of developing effective strategies for water resources and soil erosion control.

Biotic homogenization in multisystem cascade reservoirs: insights from sedimentary photopigment analysis.

The existing literature provides limited insights into the dynamics of phytoplankton communities and the spatial heterogeneity of physicochemical parameters in multisystem cascade reservoirs (interconnected reservoirs derived from different rivers). The existing studies are concentrated on cascade reservoirs (interconnected reservoirs derived from the same river). To address this knowledge gap, the aims of the present study were as follows: (1) investigate the spatial heterogeneity, within and between reservoirs, of geochemical parameters associated with the eutrophication process, considering total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin, and metals (chromium, copper, nickel, lead, zinc, iron, and manganese); (2) evaluate sediment quality at the designated locations; (3) assess differences in the richness and concentration of sedimentary photopigments between the reservoirs. Application of principal component analysis revealed discernible gradients for the abiotic variables, although the differences were not statistically significant (one-way PERMANOVA test, p > 0.05). The observations suggested a tendency towards spatial homogeneity within and between the reservoirs. The metal concentrations were consistent with regional reference values, while phosphorus levels in the sediment approached the threshold for classification as pollution (~ 2000mg/kg). Analysis of pigments indicated low dissimilarity among the reservoirs, which could be mainly attributed to the eutrophication process and high connectivity of the sampled areas. To counteract ongoing biotic homogenization, it is essential to reduce nutrient inputs and invest in ecological protection and restoration programs. The analysis of sedimentary photopigments provides an efficient and cost-effective alternative way to assess phytoplankton communities.

Exploring Trade-Offs and Synergies in Social–Ecological System Services across Ecological Engineering Impact Regions: Insights from South China Karst

Karst ecosystems have become complex social–ecological systems (SESs) as a result of the interventions of large-scale ecological restoration programs, and the ecosystem services (ESs) that provide regional well-being can, to some extent, be described as social–ecological system services (S–ESs). Understanding the relationships among multiple S–ESs and exploring their drivers are essential for effective ecological management in karst areas, especially in regions differently affected by ecological engineering programs. Taking South China Karst (SCK) as a study area, we first identified two regions as comparative boundaries, namely significant engineering impact regions (SEERs) and non-significant ecological engineering impact regions (NEERs). Then we used ES assessment models, Spearman correlation, and optimal parameter geographic detector to identify the supply capacity, trade-offs/synergies, and their drivers of six types of S–ESs in SEERs and NEERs. The findings included: (1) SEERs were predominantly concentrated in the central and southern SCK regions, accounting for 33.98% of the total SCK area, with the most concentrated distribution observed in Guizhou and Guangxi. (2) Within the entire SCK, six S–ESs maintained a relatively stable spatial distribution pattern over time, with the most pronounced increase in soil conservation and a slight decrease in water retention, and the S–ES hotspots were more concentrated within the SEERs. (3) Most S–ES pairs within SEERs were optimized synergistically, with lower trade-off intensity and higher synergy intensity compared to NEERs. (4) S–ES pairs were affected by the interactions between the natural and socio-economic factors, with land use changes playing a crucial role, and natural factors were difficult to predict but cannot be ignored. Based on the results, we propose different SES sustainable development suggestions, with a view to providing theoretical support for the optimization of SES functions and the consolidating of integrated ecological construction.

Impact of Land Use Change on Water-Related Ecosystem Services under Multiple Ecological Restoration Scenarios in the Ganjiang River Basin, China

Ecological restoration programs (ERPs) can lead to dramatic land use change, thereby affecting ecosystem services and their interaction. Determining the optimal ERPs is a crucial issue for ecological restoration in ecologically fragile regions. This study analyzed the impacts of land use change on four water-related ecosystem services (WESs), namely water yield, soil retention, water purification, and food production in the Ganjiang River basin, China during the past two decades. Then, trade-off and synergy between WESs were detected based on correlation analysis. Finally, to quantify the effect of ERPs on WESs, we comprehensively considered the types and intensity of ERPs and designed four categories of scenarios: returning farmland to forest (RFF) scenarios; planting forest (PF) scenarios; riparian forestland buffer (RFB) scenarios; and riparian grassland buffer (RGB) scenarios. Each category contains five scenarios of different intensities. The results showed that water yield, soil retention, and food production increased while water purification decreased from 2000 to 2020. The deterioration of water quality was mainly due to transitions from forestland to farmland and built-up land. Trade-offs only occurred between regulating services and provisioning services. Among all ecological restoration scenarios, only the RFF scenarios can significantly improve soil retention and water purification at the same time, although food production will decrease. Considering food security, returning farmland with a slope greater than 10 degrees to forestland was the optimal scenario in the study area. This study highlighted that both the type and intensity of ERPs should be considered in ecological restoration. This study can contribute to ecological restoration in the Ganjiang River basin and other subtropical mountainous regions.

Effect of ecological restoration on evapotranspiration and water yield in the agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China during 2000–2018

Evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (WY) play a crucial role in sustaining available water resources, and are greatly affected by climate and anthropogenic activities. The agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China (APENC) has been undergoing ecological restoration projects since 2000 to rehabilitate ecosystem services such as food production and water availability. Previous studies have primarily accessed the combined effect of vegetation greening and climate change on ET. However, the independent influences of these factors, particularly land use/cover change (LUCC) and vegetation greening on both ET and WY remain poorly understood. In this study, we systematically investigated the effect of LUCC, vegetation greening, and climate change scenarios on regional ET and WY variations from 2000 to 2018 in the APENC using a coupled carbon and water model. Results showed a significant increase in the mean annual ET, with a trend of 5.8 mm/y while the WY had a statistically insignificant trend of −0.6 mm/y from 2000 to 2018. Areas with significant increases in ET and decreases in WY mainly occurred in the southeastern part of the APENC. Vegetation greening induced by ecological restoration had a more pronounced impact on ET variation than climate change, while LUCC resulted in relatively minor changes in ET in the APENC. The variations in WY were primarily influenced by changes in precipitation, the increase in precipitation effectively offset the decrease in WY caused by vegetation greening. These findings provide valuable information to policy/decision markers for sustainable management of large-scale ecological restoration programs in dry regions.

Trends in the Altitudinal Gradient Evolution of Vegetation Ecological Functions in Mountainous Areas

Natural vegetation protects, maintains, and improves the environment through its ecological functions and is, thus, an important component of Earth’s ecosystems. The distribution of natural vegetation and its corresponding ecological roles vary with the topographic gradient. Understanding this role is essential for effective ecosystem management and conservation efforts. This study analyzes vegetation composition across altitude gradients and the spatiotemporal evolution of water conservation, soil conservation, and carbon storage in the southern hill and mountain belt of China. We then explored the drivers of the ecological functions of vegetation at different altitude gradients. The results showed that water conservation increased by 108.56%, soil conservation increased by 97.04%, and carbon storage increased only slightly. The ecological functions of vegetation varied across altitude gradients, with the 500–800 m gradient exhibiting markedly higher ecological functions than the other gradients. The effect of precipitation on soil conservation increases with altitude. In addition, at higher altitudes, evergreen coniferous forests had a greater effect on carbon storage. Based on the results, we propose vegetation management measures for different altitudes. This study provides a reference for decision-makers to develop and adjust ecological restoration programs in mountainous areas for the improvement of the local ecological environment.

Prevalence of vegetation browning in China’s drylands under climate change

Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged, but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed. However, detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce. In this study, we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning (monotonic, interruption, and reversal) through the breaks for the additive season and trend (BFAST) method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022. It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs (ERPs) and climate change on these vegetation trends. We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands. Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening (29.8 %) and greening with setback (36.8 %), whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal (19.2 %). The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr, which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback, 0.0078/yr. This research highlights that, under the background of widespread vegetation greening, vegetation browning is progressively increasing due to the effects of climate change. Furthermore, the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage, with the increase rate in 2000–2022 being twice as much as that of 1982–1999 in revegetation regions. Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances, which offset the efforts of ERPs.

The environmental impact assessment of China's ecological migration from a social-ecological perspective.

When accounting for the social-ecological impact of an ecological restoration program, both objective environmental contexts and people's subjective perceptions are required. While this kind of environmental impact assessment lacks a comprehensive perspective. We use the difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effect of the greenness of the landscape after ecological migration in the Qilian Mountains in China; and analysis of variance and fixed effects models are used to evaluate the effects of such ecological restoration programs on local people's perceptions. The results show that the ecological migration program in the Qilian Mountains has been successful at not only significantly improving remotely sensed greenness at the landscape scale, but also at enhancing immigrants' environmental perceptions. These findings demonstrate the environmental impacts of ecological migration from a social-ecological perspective, and can provide methodological implications for landscape planning to support a better understanding of ecological restoration programs in the drylands.

Differentiated impacts of environmental contexts on residents' environmental attitudes towards ecological restoration programs of China's drylands

Residents' environmental attitudes (EAs) towards ecological restoration programs are vital for evaluating program effectiveness and promoting environmental management. However, most local studies have neglected the indirect environmental contextual influences on residents' EAs, and have omitted the regional variations in the environmental contextual influences. To investigate the multilevel factors affecting residents' EAs, we conducted a transect survey that included the eastern, middle, and western regions in northern China's drylands, where have experienced ecological restoration. Multilevel linear models (MLMs) were applied to analyse the direct and indirect impacts of environmental contexts and individual characteristics on rural residents' EAs. The results showed the environmental context can indirectly impact EAs by amplifying the influence of individual characteristics such as family structure and income on EAs. The EAs are influenced by different local environmental contexts among the east, middle and west of China's drylands. The humidity attitude was influenced by precipitation only in the highly arid western and middle regions, while precipitation attitude is strongly influenced by land surface temperature and humidity in eastern China's drylands. These findings hold important implications for understanding the cross-scale impact of environmental contexts on EAs in drylands.

Response of ecosystem water-use efficiency to global vegetation greening

Global vegetation has been greening during the past two decades. However, relatively less is known concerning the change of carbon–water cycle coupling in response to vegetation greening. A key indicator that can characterize this coupling is water-use efficiency (WUE) of ecosystems. Therefore, we explored the impact of global vegetation greening on ecosystem WUE using Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall (M−K) test, stepwise regression and Lindeman Merenda Gold model (LMG) model based on the remote sensing data from 1982 to 2018. Our results showed that global vegetation greening had a positive effect on the gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET) and WUE during the past thirty years. The WUE in 70 % of these vegetation greening areas, including India, China, Russia, Japan, North Korea, Europe and North America, was increased, and the WUE was increased by 0.002 g C kg H2O yr−1, which was twice as much as that of the global vegetation cover areas. Results of stepwise regression analysis showed that vegetation greening contributed 80 % of the changes in WUE, much higher than the contribution of the climate factors. GPP contributes approximately 81 % to the changes in WUE as a result of vegetation greening. In addition, we also found that, in the greening areas around the world, leaf area index (LAI) explained 80 % of the changes in WUE, and that vegetation has a positive effect WUE. Therefore, the WUE should be considered in the design of ecological restoration programs in the future, and vegetation of low water consumption would be favored to realize sustainable ecosystem services and regional development.

Dynamics of land cover changes and driving forces in China’s drylands since the 1970 s

The land cover in China’s drylands has undergone dramatic changes due to rapid economic development and ecological restoration; however, the long-term and detailed land cover and land use change (LCLUC) focus on this unique region remains inadequate. Based on a temporally continuous and spatially high-resolution ChinaCover dataset from 1975, as well as climatic and socioeconomic data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of LCLUC in China’s drylands over 45 years, revealed the land conversions in the secondary category and explored its major driving factors in different periods. The results show that the rate of LCLUC is accelerating, and the trajectory of LCLUC is slowly changing although stable land is dominant. There are complex conversions among land covers, with each type of change affecting an average of 12 other types, and the LCLUC in drylands was mainly determined by the mutual conversions among shrub, desert shrub, steppe, sparse grassland, built-up, upland, and barren land. Anthropogenic land has grown rapidly, especially in the ethnic autonomous regions of Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia, while ecological restoration programs have led to significant growth of natural land in the remaining regions. The widespread rapid expansion of artificial surfaces, western growth of agricultural land and eastern recovery of woodland have been supported by the continued decline of grassland and unused land. LCLUC in China’s drylands was more influenced by population in the 1980 s, while economic development had a stronger influence in the 1990 s. In the 2000 s and 2010 s, however, population and cultivation had a stronger influence. All drivers are backed by macro policies. It was observed that resolution has a significant impact on the LCLUC when the resolution increases from 30 m to 10 m. These findings provide decision support for sustainable policy making and further promote the exploration of complex human-land relationships in drylands.

Exploring social-ecological system resilience in South China Karst: Quantification, interaction and policy implication

China’s Grain to Green Program (GTGP), which is one of the largest payments for ecosystem services (PES) in the world, has made significant ecological improvements to the environment. However, current understanding of its outcomes on the social-ecological system (SES) remains limited. Therefore, taking the South China Karst as an example, a SES resilience evaluation index system was constructed followed by an exploratory spatial analysis, root mean square error, and Self-Organizing Feature Map to clarify the spatiotemporal changes and relationship of SES resilience, achieve the zoning of SES resilience and provide restoration measures. The results showed an upward trend in social resilience from 2000 to 2020, especially its subsystem of social development. Regional ecological resilience was stable, owing to a slightly declined ecosystem services and increased landscape pattern. Spatially, nearly half of the counties exhibited a distribution mismatch in SES resilience. There was an obvious inverted U-shaped relationship of SES resilience, indicating a clear threshold effect, and the constraint relationship of SES resilience eased over time, demonstrating the effectiveness of the ecological restoration program. GTGP played a positive role in reducing regional SES trade-off, but this positive effect was limited, reflecting the limitations of overemphasizing the conversion from farmland to forest and grassland. Regional SES resilience can be divided into four clusters, which were the key optimization zone for social system, the SES resilience safety zone, the key restoration zone for SES resilience, and the key optimization zone for ecological system. Adaptive adjustments for the GTGP in these zones should be taken to achieve maximum SES benefits in the future.

Distinct Contributions of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities to Evapotranspiration and Gross Primary Production Variations over Mainland China

In recent decades, China has experienced substantial climate change and significant vegetation greenness due to the extensive implementation of artificial ecological restoration programs. However, the quantitative contributions of climatic and anthropogenic drivers to the national variations in associated evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) over China at different climate zoning sub-regions remain unclear. Based on the analysis of climate factor and vegetation disturbance trends created by anthropogenic activities, this study constructed a remote sensing-based ecological model consisting of Penman–Monteith–Leuning (PML) and light use efficiency (LUE) components. The proposed model simulated the spatiotemporal changes in ET and GPP between 1999 and 2018 over China. The contributions of climatic factors and anthropogenic activities to ET and GPP variations were quantitatively calculated by ridge regression. The results show that (1) both interannual ET and GPP markedly increased, by 1.32 mm yr−1 and 8.01 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively; (2) vegetation changes due to anthropogenic disturbance made the dominant contribution to GPP variations over China, while the dominant factor influencing ET changes differed by sub-region due to the joint effects of vegetation and climate; (3) temperature and precipitation positively affected ET, while wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation negatively contributed to ET in most parts of Mainland China. These findings may provide a workable, scientific reference for further ecological restoration decision-making processes in China.

Grassland Greening and Water Resource Availability May Coexist in a Warming Climate in Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractGreening of Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau (NCTP) has been observed by increases in the remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI), driven primarily by CO2 fertilization effects, anthropogenic warming, and the implementation of ecological restoration programs. Continued growth of LAI throughout the 21st century is also projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios. However, the question of whether local water resources can sustain ongoing grassland greening has not been adequately investigated. Here we assessed the sustainability of water resources under grassland greening across NCTP under various climate scenarios using water yield (WY, defined as precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration) as the key metric. Unexpectedly, we observe the coexistence of increases in LAI and WY in most of NCTP. In a warming climate with increasing precipitation and CO2, we find that grasses maintain high water use efficiency to sustain their growth, contributing to continued local water resource availability. Thus, livestock production may also continue to increase under the simultaneous growth of LAI and WY in the future.

Understanding ecological restoration potential: The role of water resources and slope gradient limits

Ecological restoration is one of the most feasible ways to mitigate climate change and conserve ecosystems. However, the scope, intensity, effectiveness, and future potential of ecological restoration are restricted by unfavorable environmental conditions, especially limited water resources and complex topography. This paper proposes an assessment framework of ecological restoration potential under the coupled limits of water resources and slope gradient to quantitatively assess ecological restoration potential (ERP) under these two limiting factors. Results indicate that the current vegetation plantation in 20%, 0.19% and 32% areas of China's 31 provinces are larger, equal, and lower than the vegetation threshold permitted by local water resources respectively, which represents about 0.299 billion ha potential for additional restoration area. The ecological restoration potential under the integrated water resources and slope gradient constraints is 0.4 Pg C, less than half (47%) of the potential under the single limit of water resources (0.856 Pg C). However, this potential and China's existing carbon sink capacity related to terrestrial ecosystems is estimated to offset up to 8% of its current carbon dioxide emissions. Ecological restoration programs in areas with slope >5° will require additional economic investment to support Soil and Water Conservation programs, estimated to average about 212 trillion yuan. Succinctly, it is critical to integrate field investigations, process-based assessments and landscape design for sustainable ecological restoration. This work can provide techniques support for quantitative measurement of ecological restoration potential considering multiple limiting factors and guidance for sustainable implementation of ecological restoration programs.

Carbon potential of China's Grain to Green Program and its contribution to the carbon target

Afforestation and reforestation are deemed promising strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Here, we estimated the impact of China's Grain for Green Program (GFGP) on carbon storage and carbon sink capacity over the past 20 years. We then projected the carbon potential of the GFGP under expansion and management scenarios for 2030 and 2060. Our results showed that the GFGP contributed to 1482.62 Tg of a carbon sink from 2000 to 2020. By 2030 and 2060, the carbon sink induced by the GFGP reached 47.59–75.85 Tg per year, and 38.67–73.67 Tg per year, respectively. This sink offset 0.74–1.19 % and 0.98–1.87 % of the CO2 emissions from all of China in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Our results indicate that national ecological restoration programs can mitigate China's extensive carbon emissions in China, and highlight new solutions for removing CO2 from the atmosphere in other countries.