Ecological Protection Scenario Research Articles

Multi-scenario analysis and optimization strategy of ecological security pattern in the Weihe river basin

For many years, the Weihe River Basin (WRB) has struggled to achieve a balance between ecological protection and economic growth. Constructing an Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) is extremely important for ensuring ecological security (ES). This study employed a coupling of multi-objective programming (MOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to project land use change (LUCC) in 2040 across three scenarios. Leveraging circuit theory, we generated ecological corridors and identified key ecological nodes, enabling a comparative analysis of ESPs within the WRB. The main results showed that: (1) The Ecological Protection (EP) scenario showed the highest proportions of forestland, grassland, and water, indicating an optimal ecological environment. Conversely, the Economic Development (ED) scenario features the greatest proportion of construction land, particularly evident in the rapid urban expansion. The Natural Development (ND) scenario exhibits a more balanced change, aligning closely with historical trends. (2) The ecological source areas in the EP scenario is 13,856.70 km2, with the largest and most intact patch area. The ecological source patches that have been identified in the ED scenario exhibit fragmentation and dispersion, encompassing a total area of 8018.82 km2. The ecological source areas in the ND scenario is most similar to the actual situation in 2020, encompassing 8474.99 km2. (3) The EP scenario demonstrates minimal landscape fragmentation. The ED scenario presents a more intricate corridor pattern, hindering species and energy flow efficiency. The ND scenario is more similar to the actual distribution in 2020. Protecting and restoring key ecological nodes, and ensuring the integrity and connectivity of ecological sources are crucial for ESP optimization in various scenarios. Combining all results, we categorize the WRB's spatial pattern into "three zones, three belts, and one center" and offer strategic suggestions for ecological preservation, promoting sustainable local ecological and socioeconomic development.

Construction of Ecological Security Patterns and Evaluation of Ecological Network Stability under Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study in Desert–Oasis Area of the Yellow River Basin, China

Land use change has a significant impact on the sustainability of ecosystems, and ecological security patterns (ESPs) can improve environmental quality through spatial planning. This study explored a multi-scenario ESP framework by integrating future land use simulation (FLUS) and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) for urban agglomeration along the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in Ningxia. The research involved simulating land use change in 2035 under four development scenarios, identifying ecological security networks, and evaluating network stability for each scenario. The study revealed that the ecological sources under different development scenarios, including a natural development scenario (NDS), an economic development scenario (EDS), a food security scenario (FSS), and an ecological protection scenario (EPS), were 834.82 km2, 715.46 km2, 785.56 km2, and 1091.43 km2, respectively. The overall connectivity values (OG) for these scenarios were 0.351, 0.466, 0.334, and 0.520, respectively. It was found that under an EPS, the ESPs had the largest area of ecological sources and the most stable ecological network structure, which can effectively protect natural habitats. This study provides a valuable method for identifying ESPs that can respond to diversity and the uncertainty of future development. It can assist decision-makers in enhancing the ecological quality of the study area while considering various development scenarios.

The promotion of sustainable land use planning for the enhancement of ecosystem service capacity: Based on the FLUS-INVEST-RUSLE-CASA model.

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) is one of the most significant human variables influencing the efficiency of Ecosystem Services (ESs) in terrestrial ecosystems. Theoretical and technical assistance for regional sustainable land use planning and management, as well as ecosystem conservation and restoration, is provided by investigating the influence of changes in the LULC pattern on the efficiency of ESs. This research focuses on the interactions between socioeconomic activities and natural ecological processes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA). We use LULC data from the TGRA for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The study includes the analysis and calculation of the spatiotemporal evolution features of the current LULC pattern and the efficiency of ESs, including their spatiotemporal distribution. Considering the TGRA's national development orientation and guidance, three potential LULC patterns are constructed under various develop-ment scenarios. To calculate the efficiency of ESs, the GeoSOS-FLUS future LULC simulation model is linked, and several methodologies such as INVEST, RUSLE, and CASA are used. The goal is to investigate the influence of future changes in LULC patterns on ESs efficiency. The findings show the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the values of water conservation services in the TGRA decreased and subsequently increased. High-value areas are primarily located in the reservoir's centre and eastern sections, whereas low-value areas are mostly found in the western section. Soil conservation service values initially declined and later climbed. The TGRA's carbon storage services have in-creased yearly, from 552.64 g/m2 in 2000 to 615.92 g/m2 in 2020. (2) In the ecological protection scenario, carbon storage and soil erosion increased compared to the ecosystem services in 2020. The ecological system service benefits are greater when compared to the natural development scenario. (3) The four ESs show positive spatial correlations across all three scenarios, and local spatial au-tocorrelation analysis findings demonstrate that carbon storage, water yield, and habitat quality have comparable spatial distributions across all three scenarios. To some extent, high-value areas for water conservation, soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality overlap.

Ecosystem Services Assessment and Multi-Scenario Prediction in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020

Ecosystem service assessment and prediction play a crucial role in sustainable regional development and resource management. Liaoning Province, as a typical representative of Northeast China, faces rapid development challenges such as urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural modernization. At the same time, there is an urgent need for a deeper understanding of the evolution trends of its ecosystems and their impact on ecosystem services. This study employed the InVEST-Markov-PLUS model to conduct simulated research on the assessment of past and future ecosystem services and multi-scenario predictions in Liaoning Province. Based on the land-use changes in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020, the InVEST model was used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations in carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield in the ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the equivalent factor method was employed to calculate the value of ecosystem services in Liaoning Province during the same period. Furthermore, by integrating the PLUS and Markov models with the actual conditions of Liaoning Province, four land-use development scenarios for 2030 were constructed, including natural development, economic priority, ecological protection, and cropland protection. The land-use distribution and the quantities and values of ecosystem services under these scenarios were simulated. The study revealed the following findings： ① From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province showed an overall increasing trend, whereas water yield exhibited a fluctuating decrease trend initially, followed by an increase and then another decrease. ② Carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province showed higher values in the eastern mountainous areas and western hilly regions, with lower values in the central region. Water yield showed a decreasing trend from east to west. ③ The value of ecosystem services increased from 547.94 billion yuan to 565.53 billion yuan, with a total increase of 17.58 billion yuan during the study period. All four types of services showed an increase, with cultural services experiencing the fastest change. ④ In 2030, carbon storage and soil retention in Liaoning Province decreased in all scenarios except for in the ecological protection scenario. Water yield increased only in the cropland protection scenario, whereas it decreased in the other three scenarios. The value of ecosystem services in the study area increased in all scenarios except for in the economic priority scenario.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Habitat Quality and Scenario Modeling Prediction in the Tuha Region

In recent years, increasing urbanization has profoundly impacted the quality of regional habitats, presenting a severe risk to the ability of a region to develop in a high-quality manner. Therefore, the scientific assessment of the features of habitat quality (HQ) evolution over time and space and the prediction of future trends in changes in the HQ are of great significance for the formulation of effective ecological protection policies. Based on five periods of land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2000 to 2020, InVEST model was used to estimate both geographical and chronological trends in the HQ in the Tuha region, China. Spatial autocorrelation analysis methods were used to assess HQ and spatial aggregation of habitat degradation, and ecological zoning was delineated in conjunction with the Human Footprint Index (HFI). Based on the results of ecological zoning, the study predicted changes in habitat quality (HQ) in 2040 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological preservation (EP), and urban development (UD) by applying the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. The results demonstrated that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality in the Tuha region exhibited a downward trend, with the proportion of low HQ increasing from 83.63% to 84.24%. Spatially, high habitat quality (HQ) is mainly concentrated in the Tianshan Mountains. From 2000 to 2020, the Moran index for habitat quality (HQ) decreased from 0.967 to 0.959, while the Moran index for habitat degradation declined from 0.805 to 0.780. The habitat quality (HQ) and degradation exhibit significant spatial aggregation, and the degree of degradation has increased incrementally. (2) From 2000 to 2020, human activities in the Tuha area increased continuously and were mainly concentrated in Tuha district and counties. The proportion of high Human Footprint Index (HFI) increased from 0.66% to 1.32%, while the proportion of medium HFI increased from 3.13% to 7.46%. (3) The expansion of urbanized land has exacerbated habitat degradation. The proportion of high HQ in the EP scenario is higher than that in ND and UD scenario. The results show that the ecological protection scenario is more conducive to the sustainable development of habitat quality in the Tuha region. The results can provide a scientific basis for ecological management and protection in the Tuha area.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Habitat Quality and Scenario Modeling Prediction in the Tuha Region

In recent years, increasing urbanization has profoundly impacted the quality of regional habitats, presenting a severe risk to the ability of a region to develop in a high-quality manner. Therefore, the scientific assessment of the features of habitat quality (HQ) evolution over time and space and the prediction of future trends in changes in the HQ are of great significance for the formulation of effective ecological protection policies. Based on five periods of land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2000 to 2020, InVEST model was used to estimate both geographical and chronological trends in the HQ in the Tuha region, China. Spatial autocorrelation analysis methods were used to assess HQ and spatial aggregation of habitat degradation, and ecological zoning was delineated in conjunction with the Human Footprint Index (HFI). Based on the results of ecological zoning, the study predicted changes in habitat quality (HQ) in 2040 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological preservation (EP), and urban development (UD) by applying the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. The results demonstrated that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality in the Tuha region exhibited a downward trend, with the proportion of low HQ increasing from 83.63% to 84.24%. Spatially, high habitat quality (HQ) is mainly concentrated in the Tianshan Mountains. From 2000 to 2020, the Moran index for habitat quality (HQ) decreased from 0.967 to 0.959, while the Moran index for habitat degradation declined from 0.805 to 0.780. The habitat quality (HQ) and degradation exhibit significant spatial aggregation, and the degree of degradation has increased incrementally. (2) From 2000 to 2020, human activities in the Tuha area increased continuously and were mainly concentrated in Tuha district and counties. The proportion of high Human Footprint Index (HFI) increased from 0.66% to 1.32%, while the proportion of medium HFI increased from 3.13% to 7.46%. (3) The expansion of urbanized land has exacerbated habitat degradation. The proportion of high HQ in the EP scenario is higher than that in ND and UD scenario. The results show that the ecological protection scenario is more conducive to the sustainable development of habitat quality in the Tuha region. The results can provide a scientific basis for ecological management and protection in the Tuha area.

Assessing and Predicting Ecosystem Services and Their Trade-Offs/Synergies Based on Land Use Change in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Exploring the spatial and temporal dynamic changes in ecosystem service functions and trade-off/synergistic relationships over a long time series in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is of great practical significance for regional high-quality development. Taking the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region as the research object, PLUS was used to predict the land use distribution in 2030 under three scenarios: business as usual (BAU), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS); the InVEST model was introduced to assess ecosystem services including water yield (WY), carbon stock (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and soil conservation (SC); trade-offs/synergies among ecosystem services were calculated by using R and GeoDa modeling. The results show the following: (1) Between 1980 and 2020, the study area witnessed varying trends in WY and SC, which initially decreased and subsequently increased, showing an overall upward trend. In contrast, CS and HQ consistently declined throughout the period; the HQ, CS, and SC values were high in the northwest and low in the southeast, while the WY value was high in the southeast and low in the northwest. (2) From 1980 to 2020, the relationships SC-HQ and CS-HQ, as well as CS-SC, were characterized by synergy. In contrast, the interactions CS-WY, SC-WY, and WY-HQ demonstrated trade-offs. On the whole, the trade-off/synergy degree showed a trend of fluctuating increase. From the perspective of the spatial scale, CS-HQ, CS-SC, SC-HQ, and WY-HQ were mainly cooperative relationships. CS-WY and SC-WY were trade-off relationships. (3) Compared with 2020, the total ecosystem service of the four types decreased, increased, and increased under business as usual (BAU), the ecological protection scenario (EPS), and the cropland protection scenario (CPS), respectively, and the increase was the highest under the ecological protection scenario. In terms of time scale, there were also differences in the trade-off intensity among ecosystem services under the three scenarios. In the EPS, the trade-off/synergy intensity among various ecosystem services was the highest, followed by the CPS, and the lowest was under BAU. The findings of this research offer theoretical insights and practical guidance for enhancing ecosystem services and zoning functions in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, while also providing fundamental support for refining the territorial spatial configuration.

Projecting the response of carbon sink potential to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Introduction: The carbon storage service of ecosystems in ecologically fragile areas is highly sensitive to regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Predicting changes in regional carbon storage under different LULC scenarios is crucial for land use management decisions and exploring carbon sink potential. This study focuses on the Luan River Basin, a typical ecologically fragile area, to analyze the impact of LULC changes on carbon storage.Methods: The PLUS-InVEST model was employed to simulate LULC patterns for the year 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, cropland protection and urban development, and ecological protection. The model projected the future carbon sink potential of the basin under these scenarios.Results: From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage showed a trend of decrease followed by an increase. By 2030, compared to 2020, carbon storage is projected to increase by 16.97% under the ecological protection scenario and decrease by 22.14% under the cropland protection and urban development scenario. The increase in carbon storage was primarily due to the conversion of cropland and grassland to forestland, while the decrease was mainly associated with the conversion of forestland to grassland and cropland, and the transformation of grassland to cropland and construction land. In the potential LULC scenarios of 2030, certain regions within the basin exhibited unstable carbon sink potential, strongly influenced by LULC changes. These areas were predominantly characterized by artificially cultivated forests, shrubs, and agricultural land. Implementing appropriate forest management measures and optimizing agricultural land management practices are essential to enhance carbon sink potential in these regions. Population density, annual average temperature, and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) were the dominant factors driving the spatial variation of carbon sink potential in the Luan River Basin.Discussion: The research results provide a theoretical basis for rational planning of land use and the enhancement of carbon sink potential in ecologically fragile regions.

A novel quantity assessment of landscape ecological risk using human-nature driving mechanism for sustainable society

The rapid advancement of global economic integration and urbanization has severely damaged the stability of the ecological environment and hindered the ecological carbon sink capacity. In this study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of landscape ecological risk (LER) in the Loess Plateau from 2010 to 2020. This was examined under the driving mechanism of human and natural dual factors. We combined the random forest algorithm with the Markov chain to jointly simulate and predict the development trend of LER in 2030. From 2010 to 2020, LER on the Loess Plateau showed a distribution pattern with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. Under the interaction of human and natural factors, annual precipitation exerted the strongest constraint on LER. The driving of land use and natural factors significantly influenced the spatial differentiation of the LER, with a q-value >0.30. In all three projected scenarios for 2030, there was an increase in construction land area and a significant reduction in cultivated land area. The urban development scenario showed the greatest expansion of high-risk areas, with a 5.29 % increase. Conversely, the ecological protection scenario showed a 1.53 % increase in high-risk areas. The findings have provided a reference for ecological risk prevention and control, and sustainable development of the ecological environment in arid regions.

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Huaibei City Based on InVEST-PLUS Model

This study aimed to investigate the impact of spatiotemporal changes in land use on ecosystem carbon storage. The study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in the study area based on land use data from five periods (1985, 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2020) using the InVEST model. The PLUS model was used to predict land use changes in the study area under four different scenarios (natural development, farmland protection, ecological protection, and double protection of farmland and ecology) in 2035, and the ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios was estimated. The results of the study indicated that the farmland in the area under investigation had been decreasing consistently from 1985 to 2020, with a more rapid rate of change observed between 2015 and 2020. During this period, the overall dynamic attitude towards land use reached 34.62 %. Additionally, the carbon storage in the area showed a decreasing trend over the years, with a decrease of 1.55×105 t from 1985 to 2020. Between 2005 and 2015, the carbon storage showed a decrease of 1.22×105 t, with an average annual decrease of 1.22×104 t. The areas with higher carbon storage were located in the eastern part of the study area, whereas areas with lower carbon storage were found in the central and northwestern parts. Although the proportion of carbon storage in farmland decreased from 66.89 % to 57.73 %, farmland remained the most important carbon pool in the study area. The conversion of other land use types to grassland and forestland was advantageous for increasing ecosystem carbon storage. Finally, the study projected that by 2035, the carbon storage in the natural development scenario, the farmland protection scenario, the ecological protection scenario, and the dual protection scenario would be 81.77×105, 82.45×105, 82.82×105, and 82.51×105 t, respectively.

Effects of Land Use/Cover Change on Terrestrial Carbon Stocks in the Yellow River Basin of China from 2000 to 2030

Accurately assessing and predicting the impacts of land use changes on ecosystem carbon stocks in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and exploring the optimization of land use structure to increase ecosystem carbon stocks are of great practical significance for China to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. In this study, we used multi-year remote sensing data, meteorological data and statistical data to measure the ecosystem carbon stock in the YRB from 2000 to 2020 based on the InVEST model, and then simulated and measured the ecosystem carbon stock under four different land use scenarios coupled with the FLUS model in 2030. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, urban expansion in the YRB continued, but woodland and grassland grew more slowly. Carbon stock showed an increasing trend during the first 20 years, with an overall increase of 7.2 megatons, or 0.23%. Simulating the four land use scenarios in 2030, carbon stock will decrease the most under the cropland protection scenario, with a decrease of 17.7 megatons compared with 2020. However, carbon stock increases the most under the ecological protection scenario, with a maximum increase of 9.1 megatons. Furthermore, distinct trends in carbon storage were observed across different regions, with significant increases in the upstream under the natural development scenario, in the midstream under the ecological protection scenario and in the downstream under the cropland protection scenario. We suggest that the upstream should maintain the existing development mode, with ecological protection prioritized in the middle reaches and farmland protection prioritized in the lower reaches. This study provides a scientific basis for the carbon balance, land use structure adjustment and land management decision-making in the YRB.

The comprehensive effects of future multi‐scenario land use change and climate change on water conservation in Northwest China

AbstractWater conservation is an important ecosystem service, which is crucial to the fragile ecological environment and serious soil erosion in Northwest China. However, water conservation has been affected by climate change and human disturbance, and its future spatial and temporal changes are still unclear. This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs (InVEST) model to assess the water conservation capacity of Northwest China between 1990 and 2020. Subsequently, the Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6) were integrated to examine changes in water conservation from 2030 to 2050. The water conservation quantity in Northwest China had a fluctuating growth tendency between 1990 and 2020, with an average of 816.61 × 108 m3. The water conservation capacity's regional distribution pattern shows a steady increase from northwest to southeast. Northwest China's forest land had the greatest water conservation capacity between 1990 and 2020, at 66 mm, while the water land had the lowest, at 1.46 mm. The water conservation capacity in the 2030–2050 future scenario is less than that in 2020 when the regional distribution pattern is comparable to 2020. Natural development scenario (ND) in 2030 has the lowest water conservation capacity (13.41 mm) under ssp1‐2.6 precipitation scenario, whereas in 2050, the highest water conservation capacity (17.47 mm) is found in same scenario. The ecological protection scenario (EP) has the greatest water retention capacity (18.15 mm in 2040) and the lowest (14.38 mm in 2050) in the ssp5‐8.5 scenario. Our research can help restore and rebuild Northwest China's natural ecosystem and offer a theoretical foundation for the protection of ecological environment and the rational utilization of water resources in the region.

Dynamic evolution and simulation of habitat quality in arid regions: A case study of the Hexi region, China

Habitat quality is an important characterization of the health level of ecosystems. Unreasonable development activities have led to a degradation in habitat quality and loss of biodiversity, especially in the arid areas of northwest China where the ecological environment is fragile. In this study, we focused on the arid area in northwestern China (Hexi region). By integrating the InVEST model and PLUS model, we evaluated the dynamics of habitat quality in the Hexi region from 1990 to 2020 under the background of land use change, and simulated the habitat quality in this area in 2030 under different scenarios. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the areas of farmland, waterbodies, and built-up land increased by 2343.26 km2, 416.42 km2 and 739.28 km2 respectively, and the area of unutilized land decreased by 3020.36 km2. In terms of changes in land use type, unutilized land changed the most. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the habitat quality increased by 1.07 %, spatially showed a high distribution pattern along the Qilian Mountains and a low distribution pattern in the remaining area. The spatial change was dominated by stabilization, and the rank change was mainly from poor habitat quality areas to good habitat quality areas. (3) Under the scenario of natural development (ND), the future built-up land area will rapidly increase by 989 km2. In the ecological protection (EP) scenario, the areas of forest and grassland will increase by 10476 km2, the expansion of cultivated land and built-up land will be effectively curbed, and the habitat quality will be greatly improved. (4) In 2020–2030 (ND scenario), land use change will cause a certain degree of degradation of habitat quality. In 2020–2030 (EP scenario), land use change will promote the improvement of habitat quality. In addition, through this study, we provide a new method to quantify the relationship between land use and habitat quality.

Multi-Scenario Prediction of Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Service Values in the Lhasa River Basin Based on the FLUS-Markov Model

The quantitative evaluation and prediction of ecosystem service value (ESV) in the Lhasa River Basin can provide a basis for ecological environment assessment and land-use optimization and adjustment in the future. Previous studies on the ESV in the Lhasa River Basin have focused mainly on static assessment and evolution analysis based on historical data, and have not considered future development trends. Moreover, most of the current driving factors selected in land use and ESV prediction studies are homogeneous, and do not reflect the geographical and cultural characteristics of the study area well. With the Lhasa River Basin as the research focus, 20 driving factors were selected according to the characteristics of the plateau alpine area, and the land-use changes under three developmental orientations, namely, natural evolution, ecological protection, and agricultural development, were predicted for the year 2030 with the FLUS-Markov model. Based on these predictions, the values of ecosystem services were calculated, and their spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the model has high accuracy in simulating land-use change in the Lhasa River Basin, with a kappa coefficient of 0.989 and an overall accuracy of 99.33%, indicating a high applicability. The types of land use in the Lhasa River basin are dominated by the existence of grassland, unused land, and forest, with a combined proportion of 94.3%. The change trends of each land-use type in the basin under the three scenarios differ significantly, with grassland, cropland, and building land showing the most significant changes. The area of cropland increased only in the agricultural development scenario; the areas of forest and grassland increased only in the ecological protection scenario; and the expansion of building land was most effectively controlled in the ecological protection scenario. The ESV increased in all three scenarios, and the spatial distribution of the ESV per unit area in the middle and lower reaches was greater than that in the upper reaches. The ESV was the greatest in the ecological protection scenario, with grasslands, forests, and water bodies contributing more to the ESV of the basin. This study provides decision-making references for the effective utilization of land resources, ecological environmental protection planning, and urban construction in the Lhasa River Basin in the future.

A spatially explicit framework for assessing ecosystem service supply risk under multiple land‐use scenarios in the Xi'an Metropolitan Area of China

AbstractRapid global urbanization has perturbed ecosystem structures and functions, resulting in ecological risk and threatening sustainable human well‐being and socioeconomic development. However, scientific indicators to analyze ecosystem service (ES) risk patterns need to be explored in detail. In addition, studies on ES supply risk are stagnating on historical or status explorations, especially from the view of disturbance from land‐use changes. This study seeks to develop a framework for modeling past‐future ES supply risk pattern evaluation and probing into ES risk patterns under different future land‐use scenarios. To achieve this objective, the framework integrates the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, the Intelligent Urban Ecosystem Management System (IUEMS) model, and an established indicator system incorporating ES supply trend, hotspots and coldspots, and ES trade‐offs, and synergies. The results show that: (1) In 2050, the supply of climate regulation in the Xi'an Metropolitan Area (XMA) will increase, while that of carbon sequestration and recreation will decrease. In 2050, the supply of climate regulation is the highest under ecological protection (EP) scenario, while the supply of carbon sequestration and recreation are the highest under cropland protection (CP) scenario. (2) From 2000 to 2050, the hotspots and coldspots of climate regulation increase in both natural development (ND) scenario and CP scenario. Notably, CP scenario experiences the most significant reduction in extremely significant hotspots and coldspots of carbon sequestration. From 2000 to 2050, at the regional and pixel scales, climate regulation and carbon sequestration mainly show trade‐offs, and carbon sequestration and recreation show synergies. (3) ES supply risk in XMA is high in the center and low in the north and south. The ES supply risk from 2000 to 2050 is increasing, with expanding “extremely high risk”, “high risk”, and “extremely safe” areas. ES supply risk management should adhere to more strict land‐use policies and guidelines, management zoning for areas with different levels of ES risk, and an accurate understanding of ES trade‐offs and synergies for scientific risk management. This study could provide theoretical and technical references for ES risk assessment research and promote scientific ecological risk management.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

In recent years, global climate change and human alterations to land use have led to a decrease in ecosystem services, making ecosystems more vulnerable. However, unlike the well-established risk assessment frameworks used in natural disaster research, the concept of ecological risks arising from changes in land use is still in its early stages, with its nuances and assessment methodologies yet to be clearly defined. This study proposes a new framework for assessing ecological risks resulting from changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin. The framework employs a coupled PLUS and Invest model to evaluate the ecological risks of land use change under three development scenarios projected for the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang by 2035. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the predominant land use types in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang were primarily unused land, followed by grassland and cropland. Conversely, grassland, water, and construction land were relatively less prevalent. During this period, the area of unused land and cultivated land increased, while grassland, forest land, and water exhibited a declining trend. Moving forward, under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2035, land use changes in the study area are characterized by the expansion of cropland and unused land, coupled with a significant decrease in grassland area, while other land categories demonstrate minor fluctuations. (2) From 2020 to 2035, across various scenarios, the total ecosystem service within the study area demonstrates an overall increasing trend in both the northern and southern marginal zones. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, the total amount of ecosystem services in the study area decreased by 15.247% compared to 2020. Similarly, under the economic development scenario, this decrease amounted to 13.358% compared to 2020. Conversely, under the ecological protection scenario, the decrease reached 19.852% compared to 2020. (3) The structure of ecological risk levels from 2020 to 2035, across multiple scenarios, demonstrates a consistent pattern, characterized by a predominant proportion of moderate risk. Conversely, other risk levels occupy relatively smaller proportions of the area.

How to Realize Synergistic Emission Reduction in Future Urban Agglomerations: Spatial Planning Approaches to Reducing Carbon Emissions from Land Use: A Case Study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Land use changes in rapidly urbanizing regions around the world constitute a principal anthropogenic element fueling the surge in carbon emissions. Here, land use patterns within the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration under low-carbon development (LCD) scenarios were simulated. Additionally, social network analysis was employed to formulate carbon balance planning guidelines for various administrative regions. (1) In the ecological protection scenario, carbon emissions from land use were 643.42 × 104 tons lower compared to the natural development scenario. Counties with high ecological support coefficients accounted for 22%, making them better suited for predicting outcomes related to low-carbon-oriented land use. (2) The spatial connections of carbon emissions in BTH were closely related, forming the three main carbon emission spatial linkage areas. (3) A carbon balance zoning plan for the BTH in 2035 under the LCD scenario was formulated. Furthermore, key areas for the implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality projects were delineated, and targeted measures for carbon reduction and sink increase were proposed. This study provides a new perspective for implementing territorial spatial planning in Chinese urban agglomerations and can aid the government in formulating a reasonable low-carbon-oriented regional planning policy.

Spatial and temporal changes in shorebird habitats under different land use scenarios along the Yellow and Bohai Sea coasts in China

The effect of coastal wetland loss on shorebird habitat in recent years has been widely reported in previous studies. Various coastal wetland conservation and restoration measures have been implemented or will soon be implemented in China. The extent to which these measures will affect the area and structure of coastal wetland habitat in the future remains unclear. Here, we predicted changes in habitat area and structure for 39 common shorebird species along the coasts of the Yellow and Bohai Seas using a cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) land use scenario model and a maximum entropy species distribution model, along with terrain factors (slope, aspect, and digital evaluation model) and climate factors (temperature and precipitation) from the Data Centre for Resources and Environmental Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, land cover maps interpreted using the human–computer interactive method, and citizen science data of shorebird occurrences derived from eBird, Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and Bird Report. We found that shorebird habitat was most abundant along the coasts of Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, and Yancheng. The area of habitat decreased and became increasingly fragmented between 2000 and 2020 for more than half of the 39 species. Under the future business-as-usual scenario, the area of shorebird habitat decreased from 2020 to 2050, and the remaining habitat became increasingly fragmented. Under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, habitat loss was mitigated, and habitat connectivity was improved. The area of habitat was lower in 2050 under the EP scenario than in 2000 for most species, especially threatened species, suggesting that the area of habitat will not return to year-2000 levels under the EP scenario. These results emphasize the need to protect remaining shorebird habitats and implement ecological conservation measures to ensure the long-term preservation of coastal wetlands.

A Multi-Objective Scenario Study of County Land Use in Loess Hilly Areas: Taking Lintao County as an Example

Land use serves as a connecting link between human activities and the natural ecology of the surface; under the multi-objective background of national policies and dual-carbon tasks, land use transformation is studied and simulated in multiple scenarios, and carbon stock changes are analyzed based on future land use to explore the path for a region to achieve multi-objective coordination. Drawing upon land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Lintao County, Gansu Province, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the dynamics governing land use transformation. Subsequently, employing the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model, we simulated the projected land use for Lintao County in 2035 under various scenarios. Furthermore, we utilized the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model to assess the change in carbon stock within the study area under each scenario. These analyses aim to furnish a robust scientific foundation for future land use planning endeavors in Lintao County. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The land use transition in Lintao County from 2000 to 2020 showed the strongest motivation for construction land growth, with continued rapid growth in the scale of urban land and other construction land and relatively slow growth in the land for rural settlement areas, while cropland and water areas continued to decrease, forest land grew slowly, the magnitude of land use change exhibited a higher intensity in river townships compared with mountainous townships. (2) The simulation results of cropland protection scenario (CPS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), economic development scenario (EDS), and comprehensive development scenario (CDS) in 2035 are better. Among them, the CDS, which considers various types of higher-level strategic requirements and can compensate for the single-goal nature of the single-demand scenario, demonstrates a higher level of rationality in the land use pattern. (3) The total carbon stock in descending order is the EPS, CDS, EDS, and CPS. Among these, the CDS is at a higher level of total carbon stock, and the changes in carbon stock in each land use site are more balanced, which is an ideal carbon stock state and a scenario more in line with multi-objective coordination.

Spatial–Temporal Pattern Analysis and Development Forecasting of Carbon Stock Based on Land Use Change Simulation: A Case Study of the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China

The spatial–temporal distribution and evolution characteristics of carbon stock under the influence of land use changes are crucial to the scientific management of environmental resources and the optimization of land spatial layout. Taking the Xiamen–Zhangzhou–Quanzhou urban agglomeration in the southeastern coastal region of China as an example, based on seven land use types from 1990 to 2020, including cultivated land, woodland, and construction land, we quantitatively investigate the spatial–temporal patterns of carbon stock development and the spatial correlation of carbon stock distribution. Additionally, two scenarios for the development of urban and ecological priorities in 2060 are established to investigate the effects of land use changes on carbon stock. The results indicate that (1) the research area has formed a land use spatial pattern centered around urban construction in the eastern bay area, with the western forest area and coastal forest belt serving as ecological barriers. Carbon stock is influenced by land use type, and the distribution of total carbon stock exhibits a spatial aggregation phenomenon characterized by “low in the southeast, high in the north, and medium in the center”. (2) Distance of trunk and secondary roads, elevation, slope, watershed borders, population size, and gross domestic product (GDP) factors are the main drivers of the growth of land use types. The primary causes of the reduction in carbon stock are the widespread conversion of cultivated land, woodland, and grassland into construction land, as well as water and unused land. (3) In 2060, there will be a decrease of 41,712,443.35 Mg in the urban priority development scenario compared to 2020, and a decrease of 29,577,580.48 Mg in the ecological priority development scenario. The estimated carbon stock under the two scenarios varies by 12,134,862.88 Mg. The average carbon storage of Zhangpu County, Quangang County, and Jimei County is expected to rise by one level under the ecological protection scenario, indicating that the vast forest area can become a potential area to maintain carbon stock. It is crucial to encourage the coordinated development of peri-urban agroforestry and ecological barriers, as well as to establish a harmonious spatial pattern of land use and carbon stock at the scale of urban agglomerations.