Ecological Processes Research Articles

Foraging Segregation Between Adult Female Northern Elephant Seals (Mirounga angustirostris) from Guadalupe Island and the San Benito Archipelago, Mexico

Female northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) are migratory animals that form colonies along the coasts of California and the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. A recent decline in abundance has been recorded in this species Mexican distribution, which is an important reason to investigate the different ecological processes operating in these colonies. The aim of this study was to determine values of stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) in pup fur as foraging maternal indicators. During the same breeding season (2015), pup fur samples were collected to investigate these foraging variations between the two major Mexican colonies—Guadalupe Island (GI) and the San Benito Archipelago (SBA). Isotopic areas were built using the ‘SIBER’ package in R, and a custom hierarchical Bayesian model was used to compare the values from both localities. Mean (± standard deviation [SD]) δ13C values for individuals from GI and the SBA were -16.9 ± 0.8‰ and -17.3 ± 0.4‰, respectively, while δ15N values were 17.4 ± 1.1‰ and 16.7 ± 1.1‰, respectively. The difference between the posterior means indicated a high probability (P > 99%) of GI having higher stable isotope ratio values than the SBA. For the posterior SDs, there were highly probable differences (P = 100%) only for δ13C, where GI had a higher dispersion. Such differences explained why GI presented a wider isotopic niche area than the SBA, indicating more diverse foraging habits along GI’s offshore-inshore gradient. Additionally, GI showed higher δ15N values than the SBA. Although this could be related to a slightly higher trophic position for GI individuals, the latitudinal effects of foraging grounds with distinct isotopic baselines remain a plausible explanation for the variations in both isotope ratios, suggesting that individuals from the SBA foraged in a more northerly location than those from GI. This study provides valuable knowledge about how females from both colonies partition resources, especially regarding habitat use.

Early-life factors shaping the gut microbiota of Common buzzard nestlings

BackgroundExploring the dynamics of gut microbiome colonisation during early-life stages is important for understanding the potential impact of microbes on host development and fitness. Evidence from model organisms suggests a crucial early-life phase when shifts in gut microbiota can lead to immune dysregulation and reduced host condition. However, our understanding of gut microbiota colonisation in long-lived vertebrates, especially during early development, remains limited. We therefore used a wild population of common buzzard nestlings (Buteo buteo) to investigate connections between the early-life gut microbiota colonisation, environmental and host factors.ResultsWe targeted both bacterial and eukaryotic microbiota using the 16S and 28S rRNA genes. We sampled the individuals during early developmental stages in a longitudinal design. Our data revealed that age significantly affected microbial diversity and composition. Nest environment was a notable predictor of microbiota composition, with particularly eukaryotic communities differing between habitats occupied by the hosts. Nestling condition and infection with the blood parasite Leucocytozoon predicted microbial community composition.ConclusionOur findings emphasise the importance of studying microbiome dynamics to capture changes occurring during ontogeny. They highlight the role of microbial communities in reflecting host health and the importance of the nest environment for the developing nestling microbiome. Overall, this study contributes to understanding the complex interplay between microbial communities, host factors, and environmental variables, and sheds light on the ecological processes governing gut microbial colonisation during early-life stages.

Evolution and genetic characterization of Seoul virus in wild rats Rattus norvegicus from an urban park in Lyon, France 2020-2022.

Seoul virus (SEOV) is an orthohantavirus primarily carried by rats. In humans, it may cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Its incidence is likely underestimated and given the expansion of urban areas, a better knowledge of SEOV circulation in rat populations is called for. Beyond the need to improve human case detection, we need to deepen our comprehension of the ecological, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes involved in the transmission of SEOV. We performed a comprehensive serological and molecular characterization of SEOV in Rattus norvegicus in a popular urban park within a large city (Lyon, France) to provide essential information to design surveillance strategies regarding SEOV. We sampled rats within the urban park of 'La Tête d'Or' in Lyon city from 2020 to 2022. We combined rat population genetics, immunofluorescence assays, SEOV high-throughput sequencing (S, M, and L segments), and phylogenetic analyses. We found low structuring of wild rat populations within Lyon city. Only one sampling site within the park (building created in 2021) showed high genetic differentiation and deserves further attention. We confirmed the circulation of SEOV in rats from the park with high seroprevalence (17.2%) and high genetic similarity with the strain previously described in 2011 in Lyon city. This study confirms the continuous circulation of SEOV in a popular urban park where the risk for SEOV transmission to humans is present. Implementing a surveillance of this virus could provide an efficient early warning system and help prepare risk-based interventions. As we reveal high gene flow between rat populations from the park and the rest of the city, we advocate for SEOV surveillance to be conducted at the scale of the entire city.

A century of statistical Ecology.

As data and computing power have surged in recent decades, statistical modeling has become an important tool for understanding ecological patterns and processes. Statistical modeling in ecology faces two major challenges. First, ecological data may not conform to traditional methods, and second, professional ecologists often do not receive extensive statistical training. In response to these challenges, the journal Ecology has published many innovative statistical ecology papers that introduced novel modeling methods and provided accessible guides to statistical best practices. In this paper, we reflect on Ecology's history and its role in the emergence of the subdiscipline of statistical ecology, which we define as the study of ecological systems using mathematical equations, probability, and empirical data. We showcase 36 influential statistical ecology papers that have been published in Ecology over the last century and, in so doing, comment on the evolution of the field. As data and computing power continue to increase, we anticipate continued growth in statistical ecology to tackle complex analyses and an expanding role for Ecology to publish innovative and influential papers, advancing the discipline and guiding practicing ecologists.

Coumarin-Modified Starch Fluorescent Nanoparticles as Sensor of Fe3+ and Zn2+ ions Utilizing Dynamic Quenching and Chelation Mechanisms.

Zinc and iron are two essential trace minerals that play a pivotal role in maintaining optimal health and well-being in the human body. Despite being required in relatively small quantities, their significance can be understated as they participate in a wide array of critical physiological processes such as oxygen transport, DNA synthesis, controlling nutrient availability, etc. Understanding the distribution and behavior of these ions in natural water bodies is essential for assessing water quality, studying ecological processes, and managing environmental impacts. In this study, we have developed a dual fluorescence probe using starch which was functionalized with coumarin derivatives, for efficient detection of Fe3+ and Zn2+ ions. This structure led a self-assembled starch/coumarin (SC) fluorescent nanoparticles with strong fluorescence intensity under ultraviolet light (365nm). The quenching effect of Fe3+ on the SC fluorescent probe enabled efficient specific detection of Fe3+. Furthermore, Zn2+ ions increased fluorescence intensity of coumarin compounds (λemission = 459). This phenomenon occurs when the coumarin compound forms a complex or interacts with the zinc ion, resulting in enhanced fluorescence emission. In summary, the developed fluorescent probe offered a promising approach for sensitive and specific detection of iron and zinc ions in aqueous solutions.

Effect of polyethylene microplastics on antibiotic resistance genes: A comparison based on different soil types and plant types

Microplastics (MPs) and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) are two types of contaminants that are widely present in the soil environment. MPs can act as carriers of microbes, facilitating the colonization and spread of ARGs and thus posing potential hazards to ecosystem safety and human health. In the present study, we explored the microbial networks and ARG distribution characteristics in different soil types (heavy metal (HM)-contaminated soil and agricultural soil planted with different plants: Bidens pilosa L., Ipomoea aquatica F., and Brassica chinensis L.) after the application of MPs and evaluated environmental factors, potential microbial hosts, and ARGs. The microbial communities in the three rhizosphere soils were closely related to each other, and the modularity of the microbial networks was greater than 0.4. Moreover, the core taxa in the microbial networks, including Actinobacteriota, Proteobacteria, and Myxococcota, were important for resisting environmental stress. The ARG resistance mechanisms were dominated by antibiotic efflux in all three rhizosphere soils. Based on the annotation results, the MP treatments induced changes in the relative abundance of microbes carrying ARGs, and the G1–5 treatment significantly increased the abundance of MuxB in Verrucomicrobia, Elusimicrobia, Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes, and Acidobacteria. Path analysis showed that changes in MP particle size and dosage may indirectly affect soil enzyme activities by changing pH, which affects microbes and ARGs. We suggest that MPs may provide surfaces for ARG accumulation, leading to ARG enrichment in plants. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that MPs, as potentially persistent pollutants, can affect different types of soil environments and that the presence of ARGs may cause substantial environmental risks.

A framework for analyzing the effects of modifiable areal unit problem on ecological security pattern

Ecological security pattern (ESP) provide a solution to balance ecosystems and urban development. The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) is a well-known geographical issue that affects the understanding of ecological processes and the results of spatial modeling. However, only a few studies have explicitly clarified the effects of MAUP on ESP. Herein, we propose new methods for identifying ecological sources and mapping the resistance surface, as well as a framework for analyzing the effects of MAUP on ESP. Our results indicate that (1) the datasets used for identifying ecological sources should possess a grain size of smaller than 300 × 300 m2. (2) The resistance surface directly influenced the results of the ecological corridors and nodes. (3) MAUP could generate uncertainties in ESP policymaking. Additionally, this study developed comprehensive network analysis tools based on graph machine learning to analyze the effect of MAUP on ESP policymaking, which can provide important landscape planning. The network analysis approaches may help policymakers gain a comprehensive understanding of the ESP network to improve the credibility of policies.

Imprints of ecological processes in the taxonomic core community: an analysis of naturally replicated microbial communities enclosed in oil.

It is widely assumed that a taxonomic core community emerges among microbial communities from similar habitats because similar environments select for the same taxa bearing the same traits. Yet, a core community itself is no indicator of selection because it may also arise from dispersal and neutral drift, i.e. by chance. Here, we hypothesize that a core community produced by either selection or chance processes should be distinguishable. While dispersal and drift should produce core communities with similar relative taxon abundances, especially when the proportional core community, i.e. the sum of the relative abundances of the core taxa, is large, selection may produce variable relative abundances. We analyzed the core community of 16S rRNA gene sequences of 193 microbial communities occurring in tiny water droplets enclosed in heavy oil from the Pitch Lake, Trinidad and Tobago. These communities revealed highly variable relative abundances along with a large proportional core community (68.0 ± 19.9%). A dispersal-drift null model predicted a negative relationship of proportional core community and compositional variability along a range of dispersal probabilities and was largely inconsistent with the observed data, suggesting a major role of selection for shaping the water droplet communities in the Pitch Lake.

Fire danger in the supply areas of hydroelectric reservoirs under the restoration process in the south of Minas Gerais, Brazil

The partial or complete loss of vegetation cover triggers an increase in surface runoff, erosion, and sedimentation of water bodies, including reservoirs for hydroelectric power generation, reducing their life expectancy. To control or mitigate this issue, ecological restoration interventions should prioritize the recovery of areas most vulnerable to these processes, such as springs. Conversely, wildfires cause damage to vegetation cover and hinder ecological restoration and/or natural regeneration processes. Therefore, this study aimed to identify - with the aid of Geographic Information Systems - the temporal and spatial likelihood of fire occurrences in spring recharge areas undergoing ecological restoration and contributing to hydroelectric reservoirs in southern Minas Gerais, Brazil. The findings indicated that the months with the highest probability of wildfire occurrences were August and September (accounting for 66% of cases), requiring increased attention to prevention efforts. Furthermore, locations most susceptible to fires (steeper slopes, more flammable vegetation, and higher anthropogenic use) should be treated as priorities for both prevention and ecological restoration actions.

Spatial structure could explain the maintenance of alternative reproductive tactics in tree cricket males.

Trait polymorphisms are widespread in nature, and explaining their stable co-existence is a central problem in ecology and evolution. Alternative reproductive tactics, in which individuals of one or more sex exhibit discrete, discontinuous traits in response to reproductive competition, represent a special case of trait polymorphism in which the traits are often complex, behavioural, and dynamic. Thus, studying how alternative reproductive tactics are maintained may provide general insights into how complex trait polymorphisms are maintained in populations. We construct a spatially explicit individual-based model inspired from extensively collected empirical data to address the mechanisms behind the co-existence of three behavioural alternative reproductive tactics in males of a tree cricket (Oecanthus henryi). Our results show that the co-existence of these tactics over ecological time scales is facilitated by the spatial structure of the landscape they inhabit, which serves to equalize the otherwise unequal mating benefits of the three tactics. We also show that this co-existence is unlikely if spatial aspects of the system are not considered. Our findings highlight the importance of spatial dynamics in understanding ecological and evolutionary processes and underscore the power of integrative approaches that combine models inspired from empirical data.

Abundance of the northernmost jaguar Panthera onca breeding population

Jaguars are the apex predators of tropical and subtropical ecosystems in the Americas but their conservation is threatened due to habitat loss, poaching, and conflicts over predation. The Northern Jaguar Reserve (NJR) was created by Naturalia A.C. as a project to protect the northernmost jaguar population within an area of 59.3 thousand acres (24.4 ha) of private property. The property also includes other protected species. The present study was conducted to verify the status of this jaguar population in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the NJR, and to contribute to knowledge regarding its ecology. We estimated density using mark-resight and spatially explicit capture-recapture (SERC) models, and evaluated home range through a survey with 56 camera-trap stations over 12 bimonthly periods. In total, we obtained a sampling effort of 40,880 camera-days, registering 2.32 records from 1,000 camera-days. Jaguar density, calculated using the capture-recapture models, ranged from 0.3 to 1.44 indiv./100 km2, while the SERC model estimated a density of between 0.21 and 3.04 indiv./100 km2. The home range was 78.9 km2 for males and 45.1 km2 for females. Long-term population monitoring together with the establishment of Areas Voluntarily Assigned to Conservation, an initiative recently created by the Mexican government, such as the NJR, could be a valid strategy to strengthen jaguar conservation and thereby maintain key ecological processes for other species and their habitat in northwestern Mexico.

Employee-centered Industry 5.0 - Case analysis of Haier

How green digital intelligence and ecology promote enterprises to transform into industry 5.0 has attracted the attention of the industry and academia. Still, its internal driving mechanism at the micro level has not been clarified. Based on the perspective of enterprise dynamic capability and resource allocation, this paper studies the “path-process-capability” logical scheme of Industry 5.0 restructuring value chain. Firstly, the multi-case configuration analysis is carried out through focused stepwise quantitative case analysis to explore the resource collaboration path of Industry 5.0 transformation. Then, the process of digital intelligence and ecological reconstruction of the value chain is studied longitudinally for a single case, and the stage characteristics of green digital intelligence and ecology driving the Industrial 5.0 transformation of manufacturing enterprises are studied by combining the time series interval method and the critical event method. The process mechanism of digital intelligence and Industry 5.0 key capabilities are found. Aimed at the path problem of green digital intelligence and ecological reconstruction of the manufacturing value chain, based on multi-case statistical analysis and single-case in-depth analysis, the reconstruction mechanism and scheme of manufacturing ecological value chain were obtained. The research findings are as follows: firstly, four configuration forms of digital intelligence and ecological resource allocation are identified, and the rational allocation of resources is realized through the collaborative effect of resources. Secondly, the ecological process of green digital intelligence of manufacturing enterprises is based on the process of “standardization - online - integration - intelligence - ecological - Industry 5.0”, and the key technologies of each stage are identified. Third, in the transformation process of Industry 5.0, three key capabilities of enterprise digital production, digital drive, and ecological economy are constructed and data-led to promote the transformation and development of enterprise intelligent services and leverage the new business form of digital ecology.

Assessment of induced allelopathy in crop-weed co-culture with rye-pigweed model

This study evaluates induced allelopathy in a rye-pigweed model driven by rye’s (Secale cereale L.) allelopathic potential as a cover crop and pigweed’s (Amaranthus retroflexus L.) notoriety as a weed. The response of rye towards pigweed’s presence in terms of benzoxazinoids (BXs) provides valuable insight into induced allelopathy for crop improvement. In the 2 week plant stage, pigweed experiences a significant reduction in growth in rye’s presence, implying allelopathic effects. Rye exhibits increased seedling length and BXs upsurge in response to pigweed presence. These trends persist in the 4 week plant stage, emphasizing robust allelopathic effects and the importance of different co-culture arrangements. Germination experiments show rye’s ability to germinate in the presence of pigweed, while pigweed exhibits reduced germination with rye. High-performance liquid chromatography with diode-array detection (HPLC-DAD) analysis identifies allelopathic compounds (BXs), 2,4-dihydroxy-1,4-benzoxazin-3-one (DIBOA) and 2,4-dihydroxy-7-methoxy-1,4-benzoxazin-3-one (DIMBOA) in rye. Rye significantly increases BX production in response to pigweed, age-dependently. Furthermore, pigweed plants are screened for possible BX uptake from the rhizosphere. Results suggest that allelopathy in rye-pigweed co-cultures is influenced by seed timing, and age-dependent dynamics of plants’ allelopathic compounds, providing a foundation for further investigations into chemical and ecological processes in crop-weed interactions.

Advertisement call variation is related to environmental and geographic distances in two anuran species inhabiting highland forests in northeastern Brazil

AbstractHighlands are of paramount importance to the study of evolution as they are frequently implicated in historical and ecological processes that generate and maintain biological diversity. In northeastern Brazil, sparse rainforest remnants located in highlands north of the São Francisco River are surrounded by the dry and open landscape of the Caatinga biome. Earlier studies suggested that these forests were historical refuges to the rainforest fauna and flora during Pleistocene's climatic cycles. However, it is still unclear whether populations in distinct highlands experienced phenotypic differentiation as a result of adaptation to environmental conditions of each forest remnant. Herein, we used two frog species widely distributed and ecologically different, Dendropsophus oliveirai, a habitat specialist, and Physalaemus cuvieri, a habitat generalist, to investigate the relationships between environmental variation, geographic, genetic, and body size distance with advertisement call variation among populations inhabiting different highlands. Our results indicated that acoustic variation among P. cuvieri populations is strongly influenced by environmental variation, but also by the geographic distance among populations. In D. oliveirai, environment is also the most influent factor on acoustic variation, followed by a lower influence of genetic and morphological variation. Associations between environmental and geographic factors suggest indirect effects of geographic distance on acoustic variation in both species through an environmental gradient. We believe that selective processes and isolation by distance possibly act together in driving interpopulational acoustic variation with habitat‐specific species being more affected by geographic isolation in suitable habitats.Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.

Unveiling the transferability of PLSR models for leaf trait estimation: lessons from a comprehensive analysis with a novel global dataset.

Leaf traits are essential for understanding many physiological and ecological processes. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) models with leaf spectroscopy are widely applied for trait estimation, but their transferability across space, time, and plant functional types (PFTs) remains unclear. We compiled a novel dataset of paired leaf traits and spectra, with 47 393 records for > 700 species and eight PFTs at 101 globally distributed locations across multiple seasons. Using this dataset, we conducted an unprecedented comprehensive analysis to assess the transferability of PLSR models in estimating leaf traits. While PLSR models demonstrate commendable performance in predicting chlorophyll content, carotenoid, leaf water, and leaf mass per area prediction within their training data space, their efficacy diminishes when extrapolating to new contexts. Specifically, extrapolating to locations, seasons, and PFTs beyond the training data leads to reduced R2 (0.12-0.49, 0.15-0.42, and 0.25-0.56) and increased NRMSE (3.58-18.24%, 6.27-11.55%, and 7.0-33.12%) compared with nonspatial random cross-validation. The results underscore the importance of incorporating greater spectral diversity in model training to boost its transferability. These findings highlight potential errors in estimating leaf traits across large spatial domains, diverse PFTs, and time due to biased validation schemes, and provide guidance for future field sampling strategies and remote sensing applications.

Environmental warming increases the importance of high-turnover energy channels in stream food webs.

Warming temperatures are altering communities and trophic networks across Earth's ecosystems. While the overall influence of warming on food webs is often context-dependent, increasing temperatures are predicted to change communities in two fundamental ways: (1) by reducing average body size and (2) by increasing individual metabolic rates. These warming-induced changes have the potential to influence the distribution of food web fluxes, food web stability, and the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic ecological processes shaping community assembly. Here, we quantified patterns and the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes through stream food webs spanning a broad natural temperature gradient (5-27°C). We then related these patterns to species and community trait distributions of mean body size and population biomass turnover (P:B) within and across streams. We predicted that (1) communities in warmer streams would exhibit smaller body size and higher P:B and (2) organic matter fluxes within warmer communities would increasingly skew toward smaller, higher P:B populations. Across the temperature gradient, warmer communities were characterized by smaller body size (~9% per °C) and higher P:B (~7% faster turnover per °C) populations on average. Additionally, organic matter fluxes within warmer streams were increasingly skewed toward higher P:B populations, demonstrating that warming can restructure organic matter fluxes in both an absolute and relative sense. With warming, the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes was decreasingly likely to arise through the random sorting of species, suggesting stronger selection for traits driving high turnover with increasing temperature. Our study suggests that a warming world will favor energy fluxes through "smaller and faster" populations, and that these changes may be more predictable than previously thought.

Seed-Bird co-occurrence networks in cocoa agroforests: Morphological matching analysis reveals shading effects on network organization

Tropical forests are highly vulnerable to ongoing deforestation, which often involves converting land for agricultural use. While tropical agroforests have been promoted as wildlife-friendly systems, limited information is available on the ability of agroforests to provide diverse fruits that attract birds and thus contribute to essential ecological processes, such as seed dispersal. Here, we evaluated the organization of tropical seed-bird co-occurrence networks in cocoa agroforests of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Specifically, we investigated the influence of (i) landscape and local predictors in shaping the structure of seed-bird co-occurrence networks; and (ii) species traits in explaining their interactive role in the networks. We constructed matrices of presence-absence interactions based on morphological matching among the beak width of frugivorous bird species and the size of ornithochorous seed species (both native and exotic species), using field data of seed rain and understory bird surveys from 15 cocoa agroforests. We further evaluated both the effects of landscape forest cover and local shading on five network indices and how functional traits of birds and seeds explain their importance to the network. In total, we obtained 467 events of potential plant-bird interactions, which revealed a modular pattern. We also observed that only canopy shading significantly affected network connectance, and seed diameter was a significant predictor in explaining tree species contribution in the network. Therefore, our findings show that cocoa agroforests with greater shading will have greater opportunities for interactions between frugivorous birds and plants. We also observed that plants with small seeds play a more relevant role in the co-occurrence interaction network. Based on findings, we emphasized that cocoa agroforests likely maintain certain mutualistic relationships to ensure ecosystem functionality and demonstrate that co-occurrence networks have great potential for future seed dispersal networks in agricultural ecosystems.

Key Variables for Farming Business Sustainability in Urban Subak

Objective: Sustainability of farming is an effort to manage resources to meet economic, social, and aesthetic needs while maintaining cultural integrity and, most importantly, ecological processes that support life. The challenge currently faced by farming in urban Subak is farming on narrow land but with high productivity in meeting the needs of urban communities. This research aims to analyze the key variables for the sustainability of farming in urban Subak. Method: Data was collected through field visits, interviews, and focus group discussions (FGD). MICMAC analysis is used to analyze variables that influence the sustainability of farming in urban Subak. Results and Discussion: The research results show that twelve variables influence the sustainability of farming in urban Subak, which are covered in five dimensions: economic, ecological, social, institutional, and cultural. The variables that are key drivers are land area from the ecological dimension, product types and prices of inputs from the economic dimension, and agricultural ceremonies from the cultural dimension. Research Implications: The variables from these findings are likely to be a view of the future (foresight), that is, the choice of stakeholders in the sustainability of farming in Subak in urban areas in the future. Originality/Value: Previous studies on subak focused on the cultural aspects of subak in Bali in rural areas, while this study focuses on urban subak and not only sees it from the cultural point of view.

Projecting the future redistribution of Pinus koraiensis (Pinaceae: Pinoideae: Pinus) in China using machine learning

IntroductionAs an important coniferous tree in northeast China, Pinus koraiensis not only maintains the stability of the forest ecosystem at high latitudes but also plays a crucial role in regional socioeconomic development. With the intensification of climate change in recent years, the stability of P. koraiensis habitats is constantly disturbed by external uncertain environmental factors, which greatly affects the geographical distribution of P. koraiensis. However, its geographical distribution is still unclear, which greatly hinders further understanding of the ecological process of P. koraiensis. Consequently, it is particularly important to explore the potential distribution and migration of P. koraiensis during several critical periods.MethodsRandom forest (RF) was used to establish the redistribution of P. koraiensis.ResultsThe results showed that temperature seasonality and precipitation in the coldest quarter were the key factors limiting the current distribution of P. koraiensis. Currently, P. koraiensis is mainly distributed in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and Changbai Mountains, with a total suitable area of ~4.59 × 105 km2. In the past, the historical distribution of P. koraiensis during the LIG period was basically consistent with the current distribution range, but its distribution range was more complete. In the LGM period, the suitable distribution of P. koraiensis became fragmented, especially at the connection between the Lesser Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable distribution of P. koraiensis is projected to increase, while the highly suitable distribution will be reduced. The dramatically worrying change is that the suitable habitats of P. koraiensis are gradually breaking and separating in the junction zone between the Lesser Khingan Mountains and Changbai Mountains, which will cause the ecological corridor to break. The shifts in the distribution centroid indicated that the P. koraiensis population will migrate northward.DiscussionHowever, it remains to be verified whether long-distance migration can be achieved without human assistance. Our results can provide some solutions for protection and management strategies for P. koraiensis populations and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

A simple model for predicting oxygen depletion in lakes under climate change

ABSTRACT The advent of climate change has placed aquatic ecosystems at risk for potential declines in water quality, including an increase in the number of lakes experiencing substantial dissolved oxygen (O2) depletion. Through its influence on the thermal structure of lakes via elevated water temperatures and alterations in stratification phenology, climate change intensifies biogeochemical and ecological processes involved in O2 consumption, giving rise to conditions like hypoxia/anoxia. However, predicting O2 dynamics is difficult, with in situ O2 depletion rates showing considerable lake-dependent variability, underpinned by distinct underlying mechanisms. Our study attempts to overcome these lake-specific features and targets distilling key components of O2 depletion into a simple and transferable conceptual model applicable across a diverse array of lakes and at large scales. Using O2 depletion rates from literature reflecting variability in trophic state, we quantified the typical O2 depletion rate ranges for oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic lakes and assessed their temperature sensitivity for a broader climate impact assessment. Our model gave reasonable estimates for O2 depletion and risks of anoxia through 3 explanatory variables: trophic state, stratification duration, and hypolimnion temperature. We validated our model predictions using data from 5 German lakes and assessed the relative importance of the 3 influencing factors. This easy-to-use approach has potential for lake management to attain rapid assessments of possible future problems with O2 dynamics in a given lake, even in the absence of in situ data. Moreover, it allows scaling of O2 dynamics continentally/globally without lake-specific hydrological or morphological details.