Ecological Model Research Articles

Historical biogeography of the Saharan horned viper enlightens past dynamics of hyperarid desert habitats

Hyperarid habitats comprise the most dominant and harsh portion of the Sahara Desert, yet how local biotas have responded to paleoclimatic shifts and landscape heterogeneity remains unclear. Here, we assess the historical biogeography of Cerastes cerastes, a conspicuous but poorly known vertebrate inhabiting the hyperarid Sahara, to understand the links between intermittent and stable climatic suitability and patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation in these extreme environments. We combine phylogeographic and ecological modelling tools using a comprehensive species dataset, which includes DNA samples (n = 62) and occurrence records (n = 557) covering most of its range. We show that paleoclimatic oscillations were major evolutionary and biogeographic drivers in C. cerastes, which exhibits different levels of intra-specific diversity and allopatric lineage structuration across the desert. High lineage richness in the north-western Sahara contrasts with an overall lack of genetic diversity throughout the central and eastern Sahara. Climatic refugia along the desert’s periphery and around mountain patches harbour single endemic lineages, stressing the links between stable climatic conditions and population isolation and divergence. Increasing climatic suitability during historical arid phases prompted widespread connectivity across the desert. This study lays the groundwork for better understanding the historical dynamics of the hyperarid Sahara.

Barriers to Adopting Healthy Lifestyle and Health Promotion among Ethnic Minority Bedouin Women in Southern Israel: A Qualitative Study.

A healthy lifestyle is a crucial step in disease prevention and management, as well as a significant predictor of health promotion. Yet, despite an increase in chronic morbidity among Bedouin women in southern Israel, little research has been conducted on their health behaviors. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine barriers to adopting a healthy lifestyle and health promotion among ethnic minority Bedouin women in southern Israel. This qualitative study was based on data collected through focus groups during June and July 2021. Participants included 44 Bedouin women aged 18-55. Focus groups were recorded and transcribed. Transcriptions were thematically analyzed and coded using the ecological model. We found multiple barriers at various levels that prevent Bedouin women from adopting a healthy lifestyle and health promotion. At the individual level, such factors included the impact of financial limitations on healthful nutrition, as well as a lack of awareness or knowledge regarding healthy lifestyle and health promotion. At the organizational level, barriers include a lack of clinics, accessibility, and availability of health services and cultural incompatibility of the health services. At the community level, impediments to a healthy lifestyle include inaccessibility to sports facilities and suppression of physical activity. At the public policy level, participants, especially those living in unrecognized villages, described difficult living conditions related to environmental and social neglect as affecting their health status and ability to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Study findings emphasize the need for policymaking and a systemic approach to address health disparities and ensure equal health promotion for the Bedouin population.

Spatiotemporal changes and drivers of ecological security based on an improved ecological footprint model: the case of Hubei Province, China

The increasing contradiction between resource supply and demand has brought ecological security (ES) to the forefront. Research on the changes of ES pattern and their driving factors is crucial for coordinating the regional ecological and economic development. Hubei Province in China exhibits uneven distribution of resources and a fragile ecological environment. In this study, an improved ecological footprint (EF) model was employed to analyze the changes in the ES pattern of Hubei Province. And the logarithmic mean Divisia index model was introduced to analyze the corresponding driving factors. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the EF per capita (ef), the ecological carrying capacity per capita (ecc), and the ecological deficit (ED) per capita (ed) of Hubei Province increased by 47.11%, 2.71%, and 51.72%, respectively. In 2020, the cities in the province were in a state of ED, and the spatial distribution was ‘high in the central part of the province and low in the east and west’. (2) Each ef type showed an increasing trend. The increase in ef mostly came from the increase in fisheries ef, fossil energy ef and cropland ef, with a contribution of 76.70%. The increase in ecc is mainly due to the increase in freshwater ecc, with a contribution of 274.87%. (3) The ecological pressure in the province continued to rise and has been in a state of being completely unsafe. The efficiency of ecological resource use has increased, and the ecological structure tends to be rationalized, but the ecological-economic coordination has weakened. (4) The overall EF growth in the province is mostly driven by economic, population and footprint structure factors, while footprint intensity suppresses EF growth. Therefore, it is advised to boost investment in eco-friendly tech, foster green economy growth, and prioritize renewable energy development. This study can provide a reference basis for policy formulation on environmental sustainability and ecosystem management.

A model-based boosting approach to risk factors for physical intimate partner violence against women and girls in Mexico

AbstractThe goal of this study was to identify and describe the extent to which a comprehensive set of risk factors from the ecological model are associated with physical intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization in Mexico. To achieve this goal, a structured additive probit model is applied to a dataset of 35,000 observations and 42 theoretical correlates from 10 data sources. Due to the model's high dimensionality, the boosting algorithm is used for estimating and simultaneously performing variable selection and model choice. The findings indicate that age at sexual initiation and marriage, sexual and professional autonomy, social connectedness, household overcrowding, housework division, women's political participation, and geographical space are associated with physical IPV. The findings provide evidence of risk factors that were previously unknown in Mexico or were solely based on theoretical grounds without empirical testing. Specifically, this paper makes three key contributions. First, by examining the individual and relationship levels, it was possible to identify high-risk population subgroups that are often overlooked, such as women who experienced sexual initiation during childhood and women living in overcrowded families. Second, the inclusion of community factors enabled the identification of the importance of promoting women's political participation. Finally, the introduction of several emerging indicators allowed to examine the experiences faced by women in various aspects of life, such as decision-making power, social networks, and the division of housework.

Which contributes more to the relict flora distribution pattern in East Asia, geographical processes or climate change? New evidence from the phylogeography of Rehderodendron kwangtungense

BackgroundRelict species are important for enhancing the understanding of modern biogeographic distribution patterns. Although both geological and climatic changes since the Cenozoic have affected the relict flora in East Asia, the contributions of geographical processes remain unclear. In this study, we employed restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) and shallow genome sequencing data, in conjunction with ecological niche modeling (ENM), to investigate the spatial genetic patterns and population differentiation history of the relict species Rehderodendron kwangtungense Chun.ResultsA total of 138 individuals from 16 populations were collected, largely covering the natural distribution of R. kwangtungense. The genetic diversity within the R. kwangtungense populations was extremely low (HO = 0.048 ± 0.019; HE = 0.033 ± 0.011). Mantel tests revealed isolation-by-distance pattern (R2 = 0.38, P < 0.001), and AMOVA analysis showed that the genetic variation of R. kwangtungense occurs mainly between populations (86.88%, K = 7). Between 23 and 21 Ma, R. kwangtungense underwent a period of rapid differentiation that coincided with the rise of the Himalayas and the establishment of the East Asian monsoon. According to ENM and population demographic history, the suitable area and effective population size of R. kwangtungense decreased sharply during the glacial period and expanded after the last glacial maximum (LGM).ConclusionOur study shows that the distribution pattern of southern China mountain relict flora may have developed during the panplain stage between the middle Oligocene and the early Miocene. Then, the flora later fragmented under the force of orogenesis, including intermittent uplift during the Cenozoic Himalayan orogeny and the formation of abundant rainfall associated with the East Asian monsoon. The findings emphasized the predominant role of geographical processes in shaping relict plant distribution patterns.

Ecological niche modelling of Culicoides imicola and future range shifts under climate change scenarios in Italy.

Culicoides imicola is the main vector of viral diseases of livestock in Europe such as bluetongue (BT), African horse sickness and epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Climatic factors are the main drivers of C. imicola occurrence and its distribution might be subject to rapid shifts due to climate change. Entomological data, collected during BT surveillance, and climatic/environmental variables were used to analyse ecological niche and to model C. imicola distribution and possible future range shifts in Italy. An ensemble technique was used to weigh the performance of machine learning, linear and profile methods. Updated future climate projections from the latest phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to generate future distributions for the next three 20-year periods, according to combinations of general circulation models and shared socioeconomic pathways and considering different climate change scenarios. Results indicated the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO 6) and precipitation of the driest-warmest months (BIO 14) as the main limiting climatic factors. Indeed, BIO 6 and BIO 14 reported the two highest values of variable importance, respectively, 9.16% (confidence interval [CI] = 7.99%-10.32%), and 2.01% (CI = 1.57%-2.44%). Under the worst-case scenario of climate change, C. imicola range is expected to expand northward and shift away from the coasts of central Italy, while in some areas of southern Italy, environmental suitability will decrease. Our results provide predictions of C. imicola distribution according to the most up-to-date future climate projections and should be of great use to surveillance management at regional and national scales.

Correction to: Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling of the South American cricetid rodent Graomys griseoflavus, with insights into its chromosomal evolution

Correction to: Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling of the South American cricetid rodent <i>Graomys griseoflavus</i>, with insights into its chromosomal evolution

Advancements and trends in ecological models for lake ecosystems: A bibliometric analysis (2002–2022)

Advancements and trends in ecological models for lake ecosystems: A bibliometric analysis (2002–2022)

Synthesis of special feature —Tailored Restoration Response: Predictions And Guidelines For Wetland Renewal

Growing understanding of decision‐making and environmental science is essential to carry out a successful wetland renewal. To foster this understanding and integrate knowledge on wetland renewal, we convened a diverse group of researchers, policymakers, and practitioners at an online symposium held on 23 November 2021. Following the symposium, we curated 22 papers from a global community of wetland experts for the special feature on “Wetland Renewal” in Restoration Ecology. This special feature encompasses findings from 15 field‐based experiments and 7 data‐based papers (P). The research spans various scientific fields such as: Biodiversity Conservation (P15), Coastal Engineering (P4, P8, and P9), Plant Ecology (P1, P2, P10, P12, and P13), Invasion Ecology (P7), Social Science (P3), Peat Soil Science (P6), Wildlife Ecology (P5, P11, and P22), Ecological Modeling (P16, P17, P18, P19, and P20), Microbiology (P22), and Policy and Law (P21).

Large language models help facilitate the automated synthesis of information on potential pest controllers

Abstract The body of ecological literature, which informs much of our knowledge of the global loss of biodiversity, has been experiencing rapid growth in recent decades. The increasing difficulty of synthesising this literature manually has simultaneously resulted in a growing demand for automated text mining methods. Within the domain of deep learning, large language models (LLMs) have been the subject of considerable attention in recent years due to great leaps in progress and a wide range of potential applications; however, quantitative investigation into their potential in ecology has so far been lacking. In this work, we analyse the ability of GPT‐4 to extract information about invertebrate pests and pest controllers from abstracts of articles on biological pest control, using a bespoke, zero‐shot prompt. Our results show that the performance of GPT‐4 is highly competitive with other state‐of‐the‐art tools used for taxonomic named entity recognition and geographic location extraction tasks. On a held‐out test set, we show that species and geographic locations are extracted with F1‐scores of 99.8% and 95.3%, respectively, and highlight that the model can effectively distinguish between ecological roles of interest such as predators, parasitoids and pests. Moreover, we demonstrate the model's ability to effectively extract and predict taxonomic information across various taxonomic ranks. However, we do report a small number of cases of fabricated information (confabulations). Due to a lack of specialised, pre‐trained ecological language models, general‐purpose LLMs may provide a promising way forward in ecology. Combined with tailored prompt engineering, such models can be employed for a wide range of text mining tasks in ecology, with the potential to greatly reduce time spent on manual screening and labelling of the literature.

Integrating family caregivers in older adults' hospital stays: a needed cultural shift.

This study aimed to examine perceived barriers and facilitators to caregiver inclusion in the hospital care of older adult family members or friends through the perspectives of (1) hospitalized older adults, (2) caregivers of a hospitalized older adult, (3) healthcare clinicians, and (4) policymakers. This qualitative descriptive exploratory study utilized semi-structured interviews with N = 24 participants and was analyzed using a framework method. Eight codes arose that were categorized into four domains guided by the Social Ecological Model. Individual-level factors were determined both for the caregiver and for the clinician. Relationship-level factors were revealed pertaining to communication style and method. Hospital-level factors included hospital environment and resources. Societal-level factors included healthcare climate and policies. Findings indicated that hospital workflows and policies inadequately support family caregivers. This study highlights potential solutions to caregivers' integration into hospital workflows.

Barriers and benefits of mHealth for community health workers in integrated community case management of childhood diseases in Banda Parish, Kampala, Uganda: a cross-sectional study

BackgroundLow-quality data presents a significant challenge for community health workers (CHWs) in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Mobile health (mHealth) applications offer a solution by enabling CHWs to record and submit data electronically. However, the barriers and benefits of mHealth usage among CHWs in informal urban settlements remain poorly understood. This study sought to determine the barriers and benefits of mHealth among CHWs in Banda parish, Kampala.MethodsThis qualitative study involved 12 key informant interviews (KIIs) among focal persons from Kampala City Council Authority (KCCA) and NGOs involved in data collected by CHWs, and officials from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and two mixed-sex Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) of CHWs from Banda parish, Kampala district. Data analysis utilised Atlas Ti Version 7.5.7. Thematic analysis was conducted, and themes were aligned with the social-ecological model.ResultsThree themes of institutional and policy, community and interpersonal, and individual aligning to the Social ecological model highlighted the factors contributing to barriers and the benefits of mHealth among CHWs for iCCM. The key barriers to usability, acceptability and sustainability included high training costs, CHW demotivation, infrastructure limitations, data security concerns, community awareness deficits, and skill deficiencies. Conversely, mHealth offers benefits such as timely data submission, enhanced data quality, geo-mapping capabilities, improved CHW performance monitoring, community health surveillance, cost-effective reporting, and CHW empowering with technology.ConclusionDespite limited mHealth experience, CHWs expressed enthusiasm for its potential. Implementation was viewed as a solution to multiple challenges, facilitating access to health information, efficient data reporting, and administrative processes, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Successful mHealth implementation requires addressing CHWs’ demotivation, ensuring reliable power and network connectivity, and enhancing capacity for digital data ethics and management. By overcoming these barriers, mHealth can significantly enhance healthcare delivery at the community level, leveraging technology to optimize resource utilization and improve health outcomes. mHealth holds promise for transforming CHW practices, yet its effective integration necessitates targeted interventions to address systemic challenges and ensure sustainable implementation in LMIC contexts.

Combining species distribution models and big datasets may provide finer assessments of snakebite impacts.

Snakebite is a major poverty-related neglected tropical disease. An integrated scientific approach is needed to understand the dynamics of this important health issue. Our objective was to estimate snakebite occurrence in a tropical area by using a blend of ecological modelling and robust statistical analysis. The present study used climatic, environmental, and human population density data to determine the area with snakebite occurrence-probability for the first time in Bangladesh. We also analysed a large, 16-year dataset of hospitalized snakebite cases to reveal the epidemiology of snakebite in the south-eastern zone of the country. Our results show that cobra bite is the most commonly occurring venomous snakebite in humans (around ~12% of the total yearly snakebite records), and men are more frequently bitten than women (2/3 of human victims are men). Most bites occur during the rainy season for cobra and green pit viper, while krait bites are not restricted to any particular season. As snakebite incidents are closely related to climate conditions, we can model snakebite risk using temperature and precipitation variables. Whereas there is a lack of snakebite reports from several parts of the study area in official records, our models predict that the entire study area is favourable for snakebite incidents. Based on the combined evidence we estimate that about 200,000 snakebite events occur every year in the south-eastern part of Bangladesh alone. Considering future global climate change, our model projections show that snakebite incidence in Bangladesh might not significantly decrease in the future (- 2070-); however, the distribution of probabilities might change, with a predicted increase of snakebite incidence in the hilly areas of the country. Using climatic data to predict snakebite incidence in Bangladesh allowed us to provide estimations of the total annual number of snakebite cases in the study area. As in most countries, the scarcity of accurate epidemiological data in official records might have masked the real magnitude of this problem. Our analysis suggests that the problem of snakebite envenoming in Bangladesh might be worse than currently perceived. A long-term sustainable snakebite program plan should be designed and institutionalized, considering climatic, geographical and human demographic variables, to obtain better data and facilitate the implementation of accurate snakebite management programs for this country.

Integrated framework to assess soil potentially toxic element contamination through 3D pollution analysis in a typical mining city

Soil potentially toxic elements (PTEs) pollution of contaminated sites has become a global environmental issue. However, given that previous studies mostly focused on pollution assessment in surface soils, the current status and environmental risks of potentially toxic elements in deeper soils remain unclear. The present study aims to cognize distribution characteristics and spatial autocorrelation, pollution levels, and risk assessment in a stereoscopic environment for soil PTEs through 3D visualization techniques. Pollution levels were assessed in an integrated manner by combining the geoaccumulation index (Igeo), the integrated influence index of soil quality (IICQs), and potential ecological hazard index. Results showed that soil environment at the site was seriously threatened by PTEs, and Cu and Cd were ubiquitous and the predominant pollutants in the study area. The stratigraphic models and pollution plume simulation revealed that pollutants show a decreasing trend with the deepening of the soil layer. The ranking of contamination soil volume is as follows: Cu > Cd > Zn > As > Pb > Cr > Ni. According to the IICQs evaluation, this region was subject to multiple PTE contamination, with more than 60% of the area becoming seriously and highly polluted. In addition, the ecological hazard model revealed the existence of substantial ecological hazards in the soils of the site. The integrated potential ecological risk index (RI) indicated that 45.7%, 10.13%, and 4.15% of the stereoscopic areas were in considerable, high, and very high risks, respectively. The findings could be used as a theoretical reference for applying multiple methods to integrate evaluation through 3D visualization analysis in the assessment and remediation of PTE-contaminated soils.

Factors associated with clinical nurse’s mental health: a qualitative study applying the social ecological model

BackgroundThe prevalence of burnout, depression, and anxiety among Chinese nurses was 34%, 55.5%, and 41.8% respectively. Mental health problems have significant impacts on their personal well-being, work performance, patient care quality, and the overall healthcare system. Mental health is influenced by factors at multiple levels and their interactions.MethodsThis was a descriptive qualitative study using phenomenological approach. We recruited a total of 48 nurses from a tertiary hospital in Changsha, Hunan Province, China. Data were collected through focus group interviews. Audio-recorded data were transcribed and inductively analysed.ResultsFour major themes with 13 subthemes were identified according to the social ecological model: (1) individual-level factors, including personality traits, sleep quality, workplace adaptability, and years of work experience; (2) interpersonal-level factors, encompassing interpersonal support and role conflict; (3) organization-level factors, such as organizational climate, organizational support, career plateau, and job control; and (4) social-level factors, which included compensation packages, social status, and legislative provision and policy.ConclusionsOur study provides a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted factors influencing nurses’ mental health. Recognizing the interconnectedness of individual, interpersonal, organizational, and social elements is essential for developing targeted interventions and comprehensive strategies to promote and safeguard the mental well-being of nurses in clinical settings.Trial and protocol registrationThe larger study was registered with Chinese Clinical Trial Registry: ChiCTR2300072142 (05/06/2023) https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.html?proj=192676.Reporting methodThis study is reported according to the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ).

Circular causality in daily coparenting processes among first-time parents.

Although coparenting has been widely studied, little is known about the daily processes of coparenting between mothers and fathers in early parenthood. Based on family systems theory and the ecological model of coparenting, we investigated new parents' day-to-day within-family processes of cooperative and tensioned coparenting. Mothers and fathers from 144 Finnish first-time couples completed daily mobile diaries for 7 consecutive days when their firstborn was 4-6 months old. The random-intercept cross-lagged panel model showed three types of within-family processes in daily coparenting, which we named continuity, spread, and shift. Continuity in cooperative coparenting occurred when a parent's previous-day cooperative coparenting positively predicted his or her own cooperative coparenting experiences the next day. We also found that coparenting experiences spread from one spouse to another: A parent's cooperative coparenting on the previous day negatively predicted his or her spouse's experiences of tensioned coparenting the following day. Finally, daily coparenting experiences also shifted from day to day: One parent's experience of tensioned coparenting the previous day positively predicted that parent's cooperative coparenting experiences the next day. No gender differences were found. These findings emphasize that the two daily coparenting dimensions seem to operate partly differently in daily life, as cooperative coparenting was slightly more often a cause and consequence in the observed processes than tensioned coparenting. Therefore, it seems that interventions should focus on enhancing cooperative coparenting. Moreover, the new concepts of continuity, spread, and shift are proposed as better descriptions of the three daily processes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Assessment of Phytomass and Carbon Stock in the Ecosystems of the Central Forest Steppe of the East European Plain: Integrated Approach of Terrestrial Environmental Monitoring and Remote Sensing with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.

The rapid and accurate estimation of aboveground forest phytomass remains a challenging research task. In general, methods for estimating phytomass fall mainly into the category of field measurements performed by ground-based methods, but approaches based on remote sensing and ecological modelling have been increasingly applied. The aim is to develop the scientific and methodological framework for the remote sensing estimation of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of forest stands, using the combination of surveys and machine learning models to determine phytomass of forest stands and calculate the carbon balance. Even-aged stands of different tree species growing in the forest steppe zone of the East European Plain were chosen as test objects. We have applied the modernized methodological approaches to compare and integrate forest and tree stand characteristics obtained by ground-based and UAV-based comprehensive surveys; additionally, we developed computer vision models and methods for determining the same characteristics by remote sensing methods. The key advantage of the proposed methodology for remote monitoring and carbon balance control over existing analogues is the minimization of the amount of groundwork and, consequently, the reduction inlabor costs without loss of information quality. Reliable data on phytomass volumes will allow for operational control of the forest carbon storage, which is essential for decision-making processes. This is important for the environmental monitoring of forests and green spaces of various economic categories. The proposed methodology is necessary for the monitoring and control of ecological-climatic and anthropogenic-technogenic transformations in various landscapes. The development is useful for organizing the management of ecosystems, environmental protection, and managing the recreational and economic resources of landscapes with natural forests and forest plantations.

How do labour market conditions explain the development of mental health over the life-course? a conceptual integration of the ecological model with life-course epidemiology in an integrative review of results from the Northern Swedish Cohort

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to contribute to the theoretical development within the field of labour market effects on mental health during life by integrating Bronfenbrenner’s ecological model with mainly earlier theoretical work on life-course theory.MethodsAn integrative review was performed of all 52 publications about labour market conditions in relation to mental health from the longitudinal Northern Swedish Cohort study. Inductive and deductive qualitative content analysis were performed in relation to Bronfenbrenner’s ecological framework combined with life-course theories.ResultsThe following nine themes were identified: 1. Macroeconomic recession impairs mental health among young people. 2. The mental health effects on individuals of youth unemployment seem rather insensitive to recession. 3. Small but consistent negative effect of neighbourhood unemployment and other work-related disadvantaged on individuals’ mental health over life. 4. Youth unemployment becomes embodied as scars of mental ill-health over life. 5. Weak labour market attachment impairs mental health over life. 6. Bidirectional relations between health and weak labour market attachment over life. 7. Macrolevel structures are of importance for how labour market position cause poor health. 8. Unequal gender relations at work impacts negatively on mental health. 9. The agency to improve health over life in dyadic relations. Unemployment in society permeates from the macrolevel into the exolevel, defined by Bronfenbrenner as for example the labour market of parents or partners or the neighbourhood into the settings closest to the individual (the micro- and mesolevel) and affects the relations between the work, family, and leisure spheres of the individual. Neighbourhood unemployment leads to poor health among those who live there, independent of their employment status. Individuals’ exposure to unemployment and temporary employment leads to poorer mental health over the life-course. Temporal dimensions were identified and combined with Bronfenbrenner levels into a contextual life-course modelConclusionCombining the ecosocial theory with life-course theories provides a framework for understanding the embodiment of work-related mental health over life. The labour market conditions surrounding the individual are of crucial importance for the embodiment of mental health over life, at the same time as individual agency can be health promoting. Mental health can be improved by societal efforts in regulations of the labour market.

Economic impacts of climate change on forests: a PICUS-LANDIS-CGE modeling approach

Climate change is expected to alter both forest stand- and landscape-level dynamics through a change in environmental characterises. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests throughout the world, there is need to further refine such analyses. In this paper, we contribute to this literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS-LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (CGE) model to better account for the economic impact associated with climate-induced impacts on forest stand and landscape-level structure and composition dynamics. Applying this framework to a case-study region of New Brunswick, Canada, we estimate that climate change will reduce softwood supply by 16-73% and impact hardwood supply in the range of -2% to +4% by 2150. The change in wood supply is estimated to reduce the value of the softwood and hardwood forestry and logging sector output by up to 51% and 17%, respectively, by 2150. These sector-level impacts may lead to a 0.08-0.88% reduction in annual GDP by 2150. The methodological advances established in this study can be used to better inform future forest management and economic plans that aim to lessen both the ecological and economic impact of climate change.

A systematic appraisal of ecological niche modelling in the context of phytodiversity conservation

A systematic appraisal of ecological niche modelling in the context of phytodiversity conservation