The escalating ecological risks associated with Community Tourism (CT) pose a significant threat to ecosystem conservation worldwide, yet methods to predict and prevent CT-induced problems remain underexplored. In the context of the pronounced emphasis on the economic advantages of CT and its extensive implementation, the spatial prediction of CT-induced ecological issues and the corresponding effective preventative strategies are crucial. This study integrates composite indicators, Public Participation Geographic Information Systems, spatial statistics, and scenario analysis to develop Community Tourism Ecological Risk Models (CTERMs). Using the Qinghai Lake region as a case study, this study quantifies the spatial distribution of ecological risks associated with CT, identify priority areas for intervention, and propose enhanced mitigation strategies. Results indicate that CTERMs effectively pinpoint sites of ecological concern, making them valuable tools for forecasting CT-induced problems. Although high-risk areas constitute a small portion of the study area, significant disparities among communities highlight three clusters requiring urgent preventive measures. The current tourism concession layout is inadequate for mitigating CT-induced ecological risks. Adjusting the locations of concessions, while maintaining their current number, can significantly reduce ecological threats and protect endangered species. These findings demonstrate that strategic concession placement offers considerable ecological benefits. As new frameworks for biodiversity conservation are being considered, conservation scientists and policymakers are presented with an opportunity to integrate community development, poverty reduction, and ecosystem conservation by utilizing CTERMs for the strategic allocation of concessions.
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