Eastern Subregion Research Articles

Substantial Heterogeneity in Progress Toward Reaching the 90-90-90 HIV Target in the WHO European Region.

Background:Achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target by 2020 is expected to end the HIV epidemic by 2030. We report on progress in the WHO European Region in meeting this target.Methods:The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) sent questionnaires to 55 countries in 2016. We report estimates for 4 stages of the continuum of HIV care (living with HIV, diagnosed, treated, and virally suppressed), corresponding to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) target and explore differences by subregion and challenges with reporting data.Findings:Forty-four countries provided data for ≥1 stage, and 29 for all 4 stages. Estimated HIV prevalence was 0.19% (range 0.02%–0.84%, n = 37 countries providing stage 1 data). The proportion diagnosed of people living with HIV ranged from 38% to 98% (n = 37 reporting number of people living with HIV and diagnosed). The proportion on ART of those diagnosed ranged from 27% to 96% (n = 40 reporting numbers diagnosed and treated), and viral suppression rates ranged from 32% to 97% (n = 31 providing numbers treated and virally suppressed). The overall continuum of care estimate for 29 countries with complete data was 81-84-88, which differed by subregion: 84-88-90, 84-69-62, and 57-45-57 for the western, central, and eastern subregions, respectively. Challenges in reporting data included absence of a single data source for all stages, shortage of expertise, and lack of financial and human resources.Conclusions:There is an urgent need to strengthen HIV testing programs throughout Europe, particularly in the eastern subregion, and to remove constraints hampering access to testing and care. Recent changes to treatment guidelines should help reduce the numbers diagnosed not treated.

Equity in tourism development: procedural (in)justice and distributive justice in Mongolia, East Asia

This paper considers procedural justice and distributive justice as a means of examining equity in tourism development. The geographical focus of the paper is Mongolia - historically a unitary sovereign socialist state in East Asia that, in common with Central Asian republics and in contrast to other parts of the eastern sub-region of the Asian continent (China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan), has been shaped by Stalinist Soviet Union policies. This particular context is interesting not only in terms of consolidation of power, and economic, political and social transition, but also with respect to the nature of material wealth and livelihood options. Equity in tourism development in two rural Mongolian regions is explored with specific reference to the concepts of procedural justice and distributive justice. Drawing on political ecology and actor-oriented approaches, the paper considers equity from the perspectives of five actor groups: local grassroots, people in two geographical areas; private sector tourism operators; Government officials; International Development Organisations and academics; and NGOs. Three periods of fieldwork were conducted, providing qualitative interview data, complemented by non-participant observations, and secondary data. Framework analysis is applied as an analytic induction tool. Five emergent themes are discussed here relating to procedural (in)justice and distributive justice. Inequity was perceived to be rooted more strongly in the processes of tourism development rather than in the outcomes but the inter-related nature of process and outcome, linked to opportunities and capabilities, is noted (Sen, 1984; 1992; 1999).

A new species of Leuctra from Turkey, and notes on Anatolian Rhabdiopteryx (Plecoptera: Leuctridae & Taeniopterygidae).

In the recent annotated catalogue of the Turkish Plecoptera, the fauna of Anatolia are considered remarkably rich with 32 micro-endemic species currently recorded (Darilmaz et al. 2016). The major hot spot is the Pontus, the eastern Black Sea region of Turkey. Nearly half of these micro-endemic stonefly species are only known from this region. The eastern subregion of the Pontus has a direct connection with the Caucasian stonefly fauna. This subregion even has an endemic species group of Leuctra Stephens, 1836, presently including four known species (Vinçon & Sivec 2001).

Precipitation recycling and soil-precipitation interaction across the arid and semi-arid regions of China

Dynamic recycling model (DRM) and reanalysis data were used to study the interaction between the land surface and atmosphere during the warm season from 1979 to 2010 across the arid and semi-arid regions of China. The nonlinear trends common to the key land–atmosphere interaction variables were extracted. For the whole study region, the precipitation recycling ratio showed an increasing trend, especially in the period before the 1990s. Simultaneously, increasing trends were also found in variables regionally related to precipitation, such as soil moisture, evaporation, precipitation efficiency, low-level cloud and precipitable water. However, the moisture transport due to westerly moisture flux showed a remarkable weakening throughout the whole study region. Based on significantly positive correlation between the precipitation efficiency and precipitation recycling ratio under relatively low moisture advection, it was concluded that the precipitation recycling process should not been ignored, for both direct and indirect precipitation processes, in the study region. The spatial patterns of nonlinear trends in land–atmosphere interaction variables indicated reverse tendencies in two sub-regions divided by the meridional boundary at approximately 110°E. For the western sub-region, although decreasing westerly moisture flow was found, the strengthening southerly moisture flux mainly resulted in an increase of precipitable water. Positive relationships among precipitable water, low cloud, precipitation, soil moisture, evaporation and the precipitation recycling ratio were also found. The soil becoming wetter and the precipitation recycling process becoming enhanced suggested the existence of positive land–atmosphere interaction in the western sub-region. However, the opposite tendencies were found in the eastern sub-region, where a weakening of advected moisture convergence was caused by decreases in both westerly and southerly moisture transport. Furthermore, less evaporation and warming temperatures suggested the climate in the eastern sub-region shifted towards relatively warmer and drier conditions throughout the course of the study period.

Heat budget in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre: Impacts of atmospheric weather regimes on the 1995 warming event

In the mid 1990s, the North Atlantic subpolar gyre has shown a dramatic warming event that has been thoroughly investigated from observations and numerical simulations. Some studies suggest that it was due to an interannual, wind-driven weakening and shrinking of the gyre that facilitated the penetration of warm Atlantic Water, the weakening of the gyre being attributed to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and in the East Atlantic Pattern, which are the two dominant modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic. However, other studies suggest that the warming event was due to a decadal, buoyancy-driven strengthening of the meridional overturning circulation and subsequent intensification of the poleward heat transport, in response to the positive NAO conditions of 1988–1995. To reconcile this discrepancy, the heat budget in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is reconstructed from four ocean hindcast simulations sharing the same modelling platform but using different settings. The novelty of this work is the decomposition of the subpolar gyre into a western and an eastern subregion, which is motivated by water mass distribution around Reykjanes Ridge and by the fact that deep convection only occurs in the western subpolar gyre.In the western subpolar gyre, the 1995 warming event is the decadal, baroclinic ocean response to positive NAO conditions from 1988 to 1995. The latter induced increased surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea that intensified deep convection hence strengthened the meridional overturning circulation and the associated poleward heat transport. In the eastern subregion, a concomittant warming is induced by an interannual, barotropic adjustment of the gyre circulation to an abrupt switch from positive NAO conditions in winter 1995 to negative NAO conditions in winter 1996. Indeed, the gyre response to negative NAO conditions is a cyclonic intergyre-gyre that increases northward volume and heat transports at the southeastern limit of the subpolar gyre. Therefore, the discrepancies found in the literature about the 1995 warming event of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre are reconciled in the present work, which suggests that the atmospheric drivers, the mechanisms at stake and the associated timescales are different to the east and to the west of Reykjanes Ridge.

The Different Impact of Positive-Neutral and Negative-Neutral ENSO Regimes on Australian Tropical Cyclones

Abstract The number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Australian region exhibits a large variation between different ENSO regimes. While the difference in TC numbers and spatial distribution of genesis locations between the canonical El Niño and La Niña regimes is well known, the authors demonstrate that a statistically significant difference in TC numbers also exists between the recently identified negative-neutral and positive-neutral regimes. Compared to the negative-neutral and La Niña regimes, significantly fewer TCs form in the Australian region during the positive-neutral regime, particularly in the eastern subregion. This difference is attributed to concomitant changes in various large-scale environmental conditions such as sea level pressure, relative vorticity, vertical motion, and sea surface temperature.

New Viséan and Serpukhovian ammonoids from the Verkhnyaya Kardailovka section, eastern slope of the South Urals

Visean and Early Serpukhovian ammonoids from the Verkhnyaya Kardailovka section (South Urals, Bashkortostan) are discussed. The ammonoid assemblages include taxa that have not been previously recorded from this region and are probably connected with the open shelf settings of the eastern subregion of the South Urals. For the first time in the South Urals, we were able to recognize the succession of the ammonoid genozones Goniatites → Hypergoniatites-Ferganoceras → Uralopronorites-Cravenoceras within the same section that can be correlated with the synchronous zonations of Western Europe, North Africa, and North America. New records allow interpretation of the evolution of the family Goniatitidae in the Ural Paleocean in the terminal Visean. Two new species, Goniatites altus sp. nov. and Platygoniatites integer sp. nov. are described.

A New Species ofMarmosops(Marsupialia: Didelphidae) from the Pakaraima Highlands of Guyana, with Remarks on the Origin of the Endemic Pantepui Mammal Fauna

ABSTRACT A new species of the didelphid marsupial genus Marmosops is described from the Pakaraima Highlands of western Guyana and from two highland sites in eastern Venezuela. All known specimens were collected on sandstone table mountains (eroded fragments of the Roraima Formation) in the eastern subregion of Pantepui. The new species, M. pakaraimae, is one of only seven mammals known to be endemic to Pantepui, and phylogenetic analyses of cytochrome- b sequence data indicate that its sister taxon is M. parvidens, a geographically adjacent lowland species. Our results, together with those from phylogenetic studies of other Pantepui endemic mammals, suggest that at least some of these highland taxa evolved from lowland species in the late Cenozoic and are neither ancient relicts of tepui vicariance nor the descendents of long-distance-dispersing Andean progenitors.

A Poisson regression model approach to predicting tropical cyclogenesis in the Australian/southwest Pacific Ocean region using the SOI and saturated equivalent potential temperature gradient as predictors

This paper explores the potential of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) in combination with the saturated equivalent potential temperature gradient (EPT) as predictors of tropical cyclogenesis in the Australian/southwest Pacific Ocean. This is undertaken using a series of Poisson regression models of tropical cyclogenesis developed on a 2° latitude × 5° longitude and monthly grid. Links between tropical cyclogenesis and the predictors are investigated, with the most significant models cross‐validated, and the skill of their hindcasts evaluated. The September lead SOI‐only Poisson regression model provided skillful predictions of the temporal variability of tropical cyclogenesis across the entire region, with a root‐mean‐square error 22% better than climatology. The combination SOI and EPT model adds spatial skill and further improves temporal skill. Temporal skill is best in the Eastern subregion (western tropical Pacific) (significant correlations with observations at ∼99% level), while spatial skill is best elsewhere.

The intercontinental schizophrenia outpatient health outcomes (IC-SOHO) study: baseline clinical and functional characteristics and antipsychotic use patterns in the North Africa and Middle Eastern (AMEA) region: original article

Objective: To describe the baseline findings of the Intercontinental Schizophrenia Outpatient Health Outcomes (IC-SOHO) study in the North Africa and Middle Eastern sub-region (AMEA-SOHO) Method: The IC-SOHO study is an ongoing prospective, three-year, non-interventional observational study of schizophrenia treatment, clinical characteristics and mental health services utilization in two North African and two Middle Eastern countries. The study population consists of non-hospitalised patients who had initiated treatment with or changed to a new antipsychotic. Results: The baseline findings of the IC-SOHO study (AMEA Subset) appear to reflect clinical practice in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Algeria (N=1, 398). Overall, the patients were moderately to markedly ill and either overweight (46%) or obese (8%) when they entered the study. Functionally, the majority of patients were not involved in social activities, could not care for themselves and were unemployed. Substance and alcohol dependency/abuse was not a problem in this study population. At baseline the majority of patients were treated with typical antipsychotics (oral and depot); and anticholinergics were the most commonly prescribed concomitant medication. Sexual side effects were most frequently reported among the surveyed adverse events. Overall compliance/adherence to medication was good. Conclusion: The baseline IC-SOHO data highlighted various clinical and functional characteristics and antipsychotic use patterns in a group of outpatients with schizophrenia in a naturalistic setting. Once completed, the IC-SOHO study will add further to this knowledge base. SA Psychiatry Rev. Vol.7(3) 2004: 27-34

A study on characteristics of tectonic block motion and tectonic setting of strong earthquakes in northern part of the Shanxi fault depression zone

This paper makes a systematical study on characteristics of structure and motion of the tectonic blocks in northern part of the Shanxi fault depression zone by means of geometrical and kinematical analysis of the blocks. The kinetic behavior of the blocks is discussed by comparing associated geomorphic features of fault movement. All analyses and studies are based on a Domino model. The block movement, fault basin extension and their regional distribution are systematically investigated. The result shows: (a) The studied region is divided into sub-regions by NW striking faults: the western, middle and eastern sub-region with crustal extension being 4.46 km, 2.80 km and 1.86 km, respectively. The extensional amount of each block in the region is estimated being generally about 1 km. The calculated result using the block motion model approximately fits the data of geologic survey. (b) Block kinematical features are obviously different between the northern and southern part, with the Hengshan block in between, of the studied region. Moreover, the magnitude of the largest historical earthquake in the northern part is about 6, while that in the southern is 7. The faulted blocks in the northern sub-region show northwestward extension, indicating a feature of extensional graben, while the blocks in the southern part manifest tilt motion, extending southeastward, in the opposite sense of fault dipping. Additional tectonic stress generated by block rotation may be one of major factors affecting seismogenic process in the region. It is responsible for the difference in the movement of the block boundary faults and seismic activities between the two sub-regions.

EURASIAN GAMBLES OVER CYPRUS' EUROPEAN PROSPECTS

A plethora of strategic analysts and historians, vvith or vvithout expertise on the Cyprus issue, have recognised the crucial role of intemational factors on the Cypriot domestic political stage. Their rationale vvas chiefly based on the geo-political location of the island in the Eastern Mediterranean, overlooking the Middle East and the Suez Canal. In modern history, if Cyprus came to be under the grip of the dominant povver in the Eastern Mediterranean, this vvas mainly so because it vvas seen as a launching pad tovvards the domination of oil and gas producing regions. Regrettably though, the recognition of the fact that the Cyprus issue remains perhaps the most intractable politico-strategic affair in intemational relations today, it has not led contemporary students of the issue to seriously advance their analyses beyond a mere acknovvledgement of this fact. Admittedly, there is a lack of published material focusing on the intemational dynamics and strategic aspects of Cyprus today vıs-a-vıs its bid to join the EU. This paper thus plan to locate Cyprus in the global context of the US and EU policies in Eurasia and in the regional context of the greater Middle East, focusing mainly on the post-Cold War period. The requirement is to decipher the parameters and the linkages of the balance of povver in the Eurasian region, and in its Near Eastern sub-region, to vvhich Cyprus belongs.

Ecoregional planning in marine environments: identifying priority sites for conservation in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Abstract1. The overall aim of this work was to identify sites within the northern Gulf of Mexico that, if protected, would fully represent the biological diversity of the nearshore waters of this ecoregion. In this paper, we focus on the eastern subregion, northwest Florida, to illustrate the process of ecoregional planning in marine environments.2. The basic steps in ecoregional planning include: identification of conservation targets, i.e. species and habitats; collection of data on their ecology and distribution; determination of conservation goals for the amount of targets that must be protected; and identification of a set of sites that meets these goals for all targets.3. As a preliminary goal, it was determined that the set of priority sites should contain at least 20% of the current distribution of each target habitat and species.4. Two primary tools were used to choose a set of priority sites: a reserve selection program, SITES, and interviews and a workshop with scientists and managers. The final set of priority sites integrated information from these various sources.5. The goals were exceeded for all conservation targets in the priority sites. On average, 75 and 58% of the distributions of the habitat targets were contained within the priority and high priority sites, respectively. These priority and high priority sites only occupied 29 and 17% of the study area, respectively.6. One of the first steps in the conservation of the bays identified as priority sites is the recognition that they are integrally linked by important processes to the surrounding terrestrial and aquatic environments. Conservation in a part of these estuarine landscapes will benefit biodiversity across environments. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Preliminary determination of the interdependence among strong-motion amplitude, earthquake magnitude and hypocentral distance for the Himalayan region

Summary Since the installation of three limited-aperture strong-motion networks in the Himalayan region in 1986, six earthquakes with Mw = 5.2–7.2 have been recorded up to 1991. The data set of horizontal peak accelerations and velocities consists of 182-component data for the hypocentral distance range 10–400 km. This data set is limited in volume and coverage and, worst of all, it is highly inhomogeneous. Thus, we could not determine regional trends for amplitudes by means of the traditional approach of empirical multiple regression. Instead, we perform the reduction of the observations to a fixed distance and magnitude using independently defined distance and magnitude trends. To determine an appropriate magnitude-dependent distance attenuation law, we use the spectral energy propagation/random function approach of Gusev (1983) and adjust its parameters based on the residual variance. In doing so we confirm the known, rather gradual mode of decay of amplitudes with distance in the Himalayas; this seems to be caused by the combination of high Qs and crustal waveguide effects for high frequencies. The data are then reduced with respect to magnitude. The trend of peak acceleration versus magnitude cannot be determined from observations, and we assume that it coincides with that of abundant Japanese data. For the resulting set of reduced log10 (peak acceleration) data, the residual variance is 0.372, much above commonly found values. However, dividing the data into two geographical groups, western with two events and eastern with four events, reduces the residual variance to a more usual level of 0.272 (a station/site component of 0.222 and an event component of 0.162). This kind of data description is considered acceptable. A similar analysis is performed with velocity data, and again we have to split the data into two subregional groups. With our theoretically grounded attenuation laws we attempt a tentative extrapolation of our results to small distances and large magnitudes. Our minimum estimates of peak acceleration for the epicentral zone of Mw = 7.5–8.5 events is Apeak = 0.25–0.4 g for the western Himalayas, and as large as Apeak = 1–1.6 g for the eastern Himalayas. Similarly, the expected minimum epicentral values of Vpeak for Mw = 8 are 35 cm s−1 for the western and 112 cm s−1 for the eastern Himalayas. To understand whether our results reflect the properties of the subregions and not of a small data set, we check them against macroseismic intensity data for the same subregion. The presence of unusually high levels of epicentral amplitudes for the eastern subregion agrees well with the macroseismic evidence such as the epicentral intensity levels of X–XII for the Great Assam earthquake of 1897. Therefore, our results represent systematic regional effects, and they may be considered as a basis for future regionalized seismic hazard assessment in the Himalayan region. We see the location of earthquake sources/faults at a considerable depth within the relatively drier and higher-strength shield crust as the main cause of the observed enhanced amplitudes for the eastern Himalayas events. Western Himalayas sources are shallower and occupy the tectonically highly fractured upper part of the crust, of accretionary origin. The low attenuation common to both subregions is due to the presence of cold, low-scattering and high-Q shield crust.

Lower Galilee during the Iron Age

Introduction Figures Tables 1. Ecological Environment Geographical Structure Geba ot Allonim Central Lower Galilee Eastern Lower Galilee Water Sources Roads Units of Landscape Settlement Southern Unit Northern Unit Eastern Unit 2. Field Survey Southern Subregion Northern Subregion Eastern Subregion 3. Excavations in Lower Galilee Tel Mador (Khirbet Abu Mudawer I blin) Tel Qarney Hittin Hurbat Ro sh Zayitt 4. Lower Galilee in the Bronze Age Settlement in the Early Bronze Age Settlement in the Middle and Late Bronze Ages 5. Pottery-Typological and Chronological Analysis Introduction Typology Pithoi Storage Jars Jugs Kraters Bowls Cooking Pots Conclusions Iron Age Chronology 6. Settlement of the Tribes of Israel Introduction Central Lower Galilee Eastern Lower Galilee The Fringes of the Jezre el Valley 7. The Period of the Monarchy Distribution of the Sites and Their Characteristics Inheritance of the Tribes Zebulun Asher Naphtali Issachar History of Settlement during the Monarchy Bibliography

Structural adjustment and drought in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been affected by very frequent and severe droughts in the form of extreme rainfall variability and almost a secularly declining precipitation in the sizeable arid and semi-arid zones of the sub-continent.2 It is estimated that as much as 60 per cent of SSA is vulnerable to drought and about 30 per cent is considered to be highly vulnerable (Clay, 1995). Because of the heavy dependence on extensive resource utilisation in the context of a technologically poor agriculture and substantially disarticulated economies, the human and socioeconomic impacts of these droughts have been quite substantial. A revealing account of the impacts of recent droughts in SSA is documented by Rasheed (1993): the 1968–1973 drought in the Sahel caused more than 100,000 deaths, the loss of twelve million cattle, large-scale migration of herders and farmers and massive degradation of rangelands … The 1984–1985 severe drought in this zone and other regions claimed over 100,000 lives, caused famine among forty million people, displaced another ten million people and had a negative impact on the economies of many countries. The drought has not spared even the normally rain-bountiful Eastern and Southern African sub-region. The failure of rain in late 1991 and early 1992 caused the food harvest to drop by about half the levels of previous years, necessitated four million tons of food aid, and imports of over $200 million worth of emergency non-food aid, and caused the death of large numbers of livestock and wildlife, power cuts and the closing down of factories.’3

The Areal Pattern of Burned Tree Vegetation in the Subarctic Region of Northwestern Canada

Vegetation and terrain analyses of 1312 air photos spanning the subarctic, low arctic, and portions of the adjacent high boreal region of northwestern Canada permitted geographic characterization of the areal pattern of burned forest and forest-tundra vegetation. In terms of its lower areal extent of burns, and lower frequency of air photos showing burns, the forest-tundra is distinct from both open crown and closed crown forest regions. Burns show a general decrease in areal coverage from the northwest (Mackenzie River to Great Bear Lake: 0-50% of the terrain) to the southeast (Great Slave Lake to Hudson Bay: 0-10%). In the northwest, the flat till plains, high cover of continuous mature forest, and scarcity of lakes, coupled with dominance of slowly regenerating white spruce (in the forest-tundra) may help to account for the extensive burned vegetation. In the eastern half of the study region, the northern limit of burns normally does not extend beyond the line where tree cover equals upland tundra cover. In this eastern sub-region, tree cover decreases rapidly northward within the southern half of forest-tundra, constraining the areal extent of individual burns. Burns extend about 25-75 km into the forest-tundra, decreasing in areal coverage with distance east of Great Slave Lake. Burn cover in the forest-tundra north of Great Slave Lake generally exceeds that east of Great Slave Lake. Weather patterns and an abundance of lakes may help to account for the lower cover of burns east of Great Slave Lake. Burns north of Great Slave Lake peak in cover in the low Subarctic along a NW-SE axis that lies NE of high fire risk and occurrence zones. Strong correlations were observed between burn cover and upland tundra cover (-r) and between burn cover and the tree:upland tundra cover ratio (+r). Key words: boreal, climate, fire ecology, Northwest Territories, spruce, Subarctic, vegetation, weather

THE SEVERITY OF HYPOCUPREMIA IN SELECTD HERDS OF BEEF CATTLE IN NORTHWESTERN MANITOBA

Hypocupremia, a condition whereby blood serum copper (Cu) is less than 9.4 μmoles/L was monitored in 40 selected herds of beef cattle from northwestern Manitoba. Data from 27 herds, blood sampled in the spring and autumn of 1974, were from a study to evaluate, as a supplemental source of Cu, a single dose of injectable Cu glycinate in the spring; an additional 13 non-experimental herds were blood sampled in the autumn of 1974. The severity of hypocupremia was determined by the change in concentration of Cu in blood serum of non-Cu-injected cattle between spring and autumn, and the effect of injectable Cu glycinate upon this change of concentration of Cu in blood serum. Within groups of herds, injectable Cu either increased (P < 0.05) mean serum Cu in treated cattle, beyond that of untreated cattle, or prevented (P < 0.05) a large drop of mean serum Cu level between spring and autumn. A modified (moved 5 to 10 km eastward) eastern boundary of the Ashville Geological Formation divided northwestern Manitoba into two subregions. In the eastern subregion, a moderate hypocupremia in selected herds was due primarily to an insufficiency of Cu in pasture forage, while the moderately to extremely severe hypocupremia in selected herds from the western subregion appeared to be due to a molybdenum (Mo) toxicity. A single dose of injectable Cu was an effective source of supplemental Cu in selected herds from the eastern subregion. The severity of Cu deficiency in herds of cattle from northwestern Manitoba was not related to calculated absorption coefficents for Cu and available Cu, based on the Cu, Mo and total sulfur content of pasture forages. Differences in the severity of hypocupremia were due to differences in the concentration of Mo in forages. Key words: Beef cattle, hypocupremia, copper deficiency, molybdenum toxicity, northwestern Manitoba

On the population dynamics of the Eucalypt-defoliating sawfly Perga affinis affinis Kirby (Hymenoptera)

Changes of the abundance of the sawfly P. a. affinis were recorded during eight successive years in a study region extending from the Southern Tablelands of New South Wales to north-eastern Victoria. The influences and processes which affected mortality and reproduction in populations of the sawfly are described, and their contributions to the observed fluctuations of abundance in the study region are discussed. The major causes of mortality were desiccation, fungal disease, and parasitism. The main parasites were tachinids (Froggattimyia spp.) and a trigonalid (Taeniogonalos venatoria Riek). A variable proportion of the prepupae entered a diapause which persisted for 2 or more years. Although extended diapause ensured the survival of the subspecies during seasons unfavourable for its active stages, only a small proportion of the prepupae involved survived to emerge as adults. The consequences of very high numbers were: increased incidence of desiccation mortality and of extended diapause, and a decrease of the fecundity of the subsequent generation. Due to the benefits which accrued from colonial behaviour, survival of the larvae was greater at moderately high than at low densities. These density-regulating mechanisms of the life system of the sawfly operated conspicuously only at very high and very low densities. In the eastern portion of the study region, fluctuations of abundance were closely synchronized in all sites. These fluctuations could be interpreted in terms of changing environmental favourability during successive seasons. Analysis of weather data showed that departures from long-term average temperatures and rainfalls were correlated throughout the region. However, sawfly numbers fluctuated erratically in the western subregion, the changes of density there often being at variance with those consistent throughout the eastern subregion. Parasitism by T. venatoria, which was often very severe in the western subregion, was the only process recognized that was likely to be responsible for the differences observed.