Eastern Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation Research Articles

Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific, whose nature nevertheless may change significantly in a warming climate. Here, we show that the predictability of ENSO may decrease in the future. Across the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we find a robust decrease of the persistence and predictability for the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO under global warming, notably in passing through the boreal spring. The strength of spring predictability barrier will be increased by 25% in the future. The reduced predictability of CP ENSO is caused by the faster warming over surface ocean in tropical Pacific and, in turn, the enhanced thermodynamical damping rate on CP ENSO in response to global warming. In contrast, the predictability of Eastern Pacific ENSO will not change. Our results suggest that future greenhouse warming will make the prediction of CP ENSO more challenging, with far-reaching implications on future climate predictions.

Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part II: Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Forcing

Abstract In this study, we investigate how a single leading linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, as studied in Part I, leads to the irregular coexistence of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, a phenomenon known as ENSO spatiotemporal diversity. This diversity is fundamentally generated by deterministic nonlinear pathways to chaos via the period-doubling route and, more prevailingly, the subharmonic resonance route with the presence of a seasonally varying basic state. When residing in the weakly nonlinear regime, the coupled system sustains a weak periodic oscillation with a mixed CP/EP pattern as captured by the linear ENSO mode. With a stronger nonlinearity effect, the ENSO behavior experiences a period-doubling bifurcation. The single ENSO orbit splits into coexisting CP-like and EP-like ENSO orbits. A sequence of period-doubling bifurcation results in an aperiodic oscillation featuring irregular CP and EP ENSO occurrences. The overlapping of subharmonic resonances between ENSO and the seasonal cycle allows this ENSO irregularity and diversity to be more readily excited. In the strongly nonlinear regime, the coupled system is dominated by regular EP ENSO. The deterministic ENSO spatiotemporal diversity is thus confined to a relatively narrow range corresponding to a moderately unstable ENSO mode. Stochastic forcing broadens this range and allows ENSO diversity to occur when the ENSO mode is weakly subcritical. A close relationship among a weakened mean zonal temperature gradient, stronger ENSO activity, and more (fewer) occurrences of EP (CP) ENSO is noted, indicating that ENSO–mean state interaction may yield ENSO regime modulations on the multidecadal time scale.

Deconstructing Global Observed and Reanalysis Total Cloud Cover Fields Based on Pacific Climate Modes

Clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate. Here, we separate and quantify the impact of Pacific climate modes on total cloud cover (TCC) variability, using reliable satellite observations together with state-of-the art reanalysis outputs, over the 1979–2020 period. The two most prominent modes of annual TCC variability show intense loadings over the Pacific basin and explain most of the variance in what could be considered the “signal” in satellite TCC data. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) provides coupled TCC—sea surface temperature (SST) patterns that are linked to the Eastern Pacific (EP) ElNiño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO in a physically consistent manner. The two ENSO modes dominate global coupled SST–TCC variability with the footprint of the CP ENSO explaining roughly half of the variance induced by the EP ENSO among these coupled fields. Both the EP and the CP ENSO exert an influence on Pacific decadal TCC variability. The impact of both ENSO modes on global total cloud cover variability is amplified by two positive feedbacks. These results could be used as a reference for model investigations on future projections of coupled TCC—SST variability responses to the CP and the EP ENSO.

Recent weakening of the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclone season onset date

AbstractThis study investigates the climate drivers of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone season onset date (TCSOD). We find that the interannual relationship between WNP TCSOD and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies considerably on interdecadal time scales. The association between TCSOD and ENSO, as measured by the Niño3.4 index, is significant during the first subperiod from 1979 to 1998 (r = .51) but becomes insignificant (r = .01) during the second subperiod from 1999 to 2019. This relationship degradation is mainly due to shifting ENSO conditions with more frequent occurrences of tropical central Pacific ENSO events since the late 1990s. Tropical eastern Pacific ENSO events cause changes in the low‐level large‐scale circulation over the tropical western WNP, where early season WNP TC genesis typically occurs, via a Gill‐type Rossby wave response. Tropical central Pacific ENSO events have a limited impact over this region. These relationships are confirmed by a stable and strong association between tropical eastern Pacific ENSO and TCSOD for the whole period (r = .63) and for the two subperiods (r = .72/r = .56), while the correlation between central Pacific ENSO events and TCSOD is weak for the whole period (r = −.01) and for the two subperiods (r = −.03/r = −.13). We further find that the Pacific meridional mode is a robust indicator of TCSOD over the WNP regardless of shifting ENSO conditions. Results of this study may provide useful information for decadal climate prediction of WNP TCSOD.

The Role of Extratropical Pacific in Crossing ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier

AbstractThis paper investigates the impacts of extratropical Pacific on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring predictability barrier (SPB). Using an empirical dynamical model – Linear Inverse Model (LIM), we find that the dynamics of the northern and southern extratropical Pacific can significantly and equally weaken the Eastern Pacific (EP)‐ENSO SPB, while the North Pacific is more important for weakening the Central Pacific (CP)‐ENSO SPB. The evolution of the extratropical optimum initial structures illustrates the different roles of the northern and southern extratropical Pacific in crossing EP and CP ENSO SPBs and demonstrates the decisive role that the South Pacific initial condition plays in ENSO diversity. Additionally, the extratropical Pacific greatly influences the forecast skill of El Niño during SPB, while tropical dynamics may be more important for crossing the SPB of La Niña.

Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation by central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation on decadal and interannual timescales

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of central Pacific (CP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) on decadal and interannual timescales. The CP ENSO‐TC frequency relationship is strong and significant only on decadal timescales, with enhanced TC formation over most of the WNP associated with warm CP ENSO phases. TC formation changes, driven by CP ENSO, exhibit a southeast–northwest dipole pattern on interannual timescales, similar to the typical pattern induced by eastern Pacific ENSO. Associated with warm CP ENSO phases on decadal timescales are increases in TC formation east of 125°E, while increases in TC formation east of 140°E are observed with warm CP ENSO phases on interannual timescales. These increases in TC activity are primarily caused by favourable dynamic conditions, including increased 850‐hPa relative vorticity and 200‐hPa divergence and decreased 850–200‐hPa vertical wind shear. The main TC formation difference on decadal and interannual timescales is concentrated over the longitudinal band of 125°–140°E, where reduced TC formation is observed on interannual timescales during CP El Niño years, predominately due to suppressed thermodynamic factors, for example, reduced maximum potential intensity and 700–500‐hPa relative humidity. We find insignificant (significant) changes in thermodynamic conditions between 125°E and 140°E due to weak (strong) descending motion in the western cell of the anomalous Walker circulation on decadal (interannual) timescales. This can be explained by different patterns of CP ENSO‐induced sea surface temperature anomalies on different timescales.

The predictability study of the two flavors of ENSO in the CESM model from 1881 to 2017

In this study, we evaluated the predictability of the two flavors of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on a long-term retrospective prediction from 1881 to 2017 with the Community Earth System Model. Specifically, the Central-Pacific (CP) ENSO has a more obvious Spring Predictability Barrier and lower deterministic prediction skill than the Eastern-Pacific (EP) ENSO. The potential predictability declines with lead time for both the two flavors of ENSO, and the EP ENSO has a higher upper limit of the prediction skill as compared with the CP ENSO. The predictability of the two flavors of ENSO shows distinct interdecadal variation for both actual skill and potential predictability; however, their trends in the predictability are not synchronized. The signal component controls the seasonal and interdecadal variations of predictability for the two flavors of ENSO, and has larger contribution to the CP ENSO than the EP ENSO. There is significant scope for improvement in predicting the two flavors of ENSO, especially for the CP ENSO.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on interannual variability in spring aerosols over East Asia

Abstract. Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability in spring aerosols over East Asia are investigated using the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis aerosol data. Results show that the ENSO has a crucial effect on the spring aerosols over mainland South East Asia, southern China, and the ocean south of Japan. The above-normal (below-normal) aerosols are found over these regions during the ensuing spring of El Niño (La Niña). In contrast to the local aerosol diffusion in winter, the ENSO affects East Asian aerosols in the following spring mainly via the modulation of upstream aerosol generation and transport processes. The underlying physical mechanism is that during the ensuing spring of El Niño (La Niña), the dry (wet) air and reduced (enhanced) precipitation are beneficial for the increase (reduction) in biomass burning activities over northern mainland South East Asia, resulting in more (fewer) carbonaceous aerosol emissions. On the other hand, the anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the north-western Pacific (WNP) associated with El Niño (La Niña) enhances (weakens) the low-level south-westerly wind from northern mainland South East Asia to southern Japan, which transports more (less) carbonaceous aerosol downstream. Anomalous precipitation plays a role in reducing aerosols over the source region, but its washout effect over the downstream region is limited. The ENSO's impact on the ensuing spring aerosols is mainly attributed to the eastern Pacific ENSO rather than the central Pacific ENSO.

Independent and joint influences of eastern Pacific El Niño–southern oscillation and quasi‐biennial oscillation on Northern Hemispheric stratospheric ozone

AbstractUsing ozone observations, reanalysis data, and climate model simulations, this study investigates in detail the independent and joint influences of the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) on stratospheric ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during winter. Statistically, the stratospheric ozone in the NH in winter increases during El Niño events but decreases during La Niña events. Stratospheric ozone increases in the east wind phases of the QBO (EQBO) and decreases in the west wind phases of the QBO (WQBO). The stratospheric ozone anomalies in the middle and high latitudes caused by ENSO activities are clearly larger than those related to the QBO phase. Since the phases of wave‐1 and wave‐2 planetary waves anomalies related to ENSO activities are broadly similar to those of QBO phases, the joint effect of ENSO and QBO on stratospheric ozone is approximately equal to the linear superposition of their independent impacts. This means that during EQBO phases, the stratospheric ozone anomalies are increased during El Niño events but reduced during La Niña events, and vice versa during WQBO phases. Numerical sensitivity experiments are performed to further investigate the independent and joint influences of EP ENSO and QBO on stratospheric ozone in the NH during winter. The results from simulations agree well with the results from statistical analysis.

A 210-year tree-ring δ18O record in North China and its relationship with large-scale circulations

Tree-ring stable oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) demonstrates the enormous potential for revealing hydrological climate changes and large-scale atmospheric circulations. Here, we established the 210-year δ18OTR chronology of Pinus tabulaeformis Carr. in Baotou, southwest Inner Mongolia, North China. The regional precipitation δ18O (δ18OP) and June-July-August relative humidity (RHJJA) were the two dominant environmental factors controlling the δ18OTR changes. Since the 1930s, the increasing δ18OTR values ​in the study region reflected the drying trend due to reducing precipitation and increasing temperature. The δ18OTR series in Baotou generally exhibited stronger correlations with three Indian summer monsoon (ISM) indexes than three East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) indexes during 1948–2009 AD. However, the δ18OTR record also significantly correlated with one EASM index. These results indicated that the Asian summer monsoon played an essential role in modifying the δ18OTR values, and the ISM possibly had more considerable influence compared with the EASM. We also found that the δ18OTR record had a higher correlation with the central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) than that with eastern-Pacific ENSO, probably because of the more substantial impact of the central-Pacific ENSO on the ISM.

Modulation of the Northern Winter Stratospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnection by the PDO

Using the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble (MME) historical experiments, the modulation of the stratospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is investigated in this study. El Niño (La Niña) significantly impacts the extratropical stratosphere mainly during the positive (negative) PDO in the MME. Although the composite tropical ENSO SST intensities are similar during the positive and negative PDO in models, the Pacific–North American (PNA) responses are only significant when the PDO and ENSO are in phase. The local SST anomalies in the North Pacific can constructively (destructively) interfere with the tropical ENSO forcing to influence the extratropical eddy height anomalies when the PDO and ENSO are in (out of) phase. The difference between the positive and negative PDO in El Niño or La Niña winters filters out the tropical SST forcing, permitting the deduction of the extratropical SST contribution to the atmospheric response. The composite shows that the cold (warm) SST anomalies in the central North Pacific associated with the positive (negative) PDO have a similar impact to that of the warm (cold) SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, exhibiting a positive (negative) PNA-like response, enhancing (weakening) the upward propagation of waves over the western coast of North America. The composite difference between the positive and negative PDO in El Niño or La Niña winters, as well as in eastern Pacific ENSO or central Pacific ENSO winters, presents a highly consistent atmospheric response pattern, which may imply a linear interference of the PDO’s impact with ENSO’s.

ENSO Regime Changes Responsible for Decadal Phase Relationship Variations Between ENSO Sea Surface Temperature and Warm Water Volume

AbstractThe relationship between the equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) has varied considerably on decadal timescales. These changes are strongly related to the occurrence frequency of central Pacific (CP) ENSO events. While both eastern Pacific (EP) and CP ENSO events show clear signatures of WWV recharge/discharge, their phase‐lag relationships between WWV and Niño3.4 SST are different. The WWV usually leads the Niño3.4 SST by two to three seasons during EP ENSO, while the lead time is reduced to one season during CP ENSO. The different phase‐lag relationships can be explained by distinct periodicities of the two ENSO types. Hence, ENSO regime changes associated with decadal predominance of either EP or CP ENSO events can give rise to decadal variations in the statistical WWV‐ENSO SST relationship. We emphasize the importance of identifying these different ENSO types and potentially different ENSO regimes to assess ENSO predictability.

ENSO's Shrinking Twentieth‐Century Footprint Revealed in a Half‐Millennium Coral Core From the South Pacific Convergence Zone

AbstractA 492‐year‐long, continuous δ18O time series from a massive Porites coral colony in Ta'u, American Samoa, records contrasting responses to different types of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through a mixed sea surface temperature and salinity signal. Currently, conventional El Niño (La Niña) events generate cold and salty (warm and fresh) anomalies at Ta'u, while Modoki El Niño (La Niña) events warm (cool) the waters at Ta'u. Over the course of the twentieth century, the Ta'u δ18O record underwent a polarity shift in its response to conventional ENSO: A warm and fresh (cool and salty) response to El Niño (La Niña) was replaced by the opposite pattern. We interpret this as evidence for the movement of the Eastern Pacific ENSO null zone, the narrow band of the surface ocean where sea surface temperature variability is not on average correlated with ENSO. This movement appears to be related to overall shrinking of the ENSO footprint over the twentieth century. We infer no such trend in the Modoki footprint. The five‐century‐long Ta'u record shows dramatic, century‐scale changes in ENSO‐band variability. Comparisons with other ENSO reconstructions lead to conflicting interpretations: The Ta'u coral may have recorded changes in the strength of ENSO or in its spatial footprint. Changes in the spatial footprint manifest as a changing sensitivity to ENSO at any given location, presenting challenges to established methods of ENSO reconstruction.

Asymmetric responses of the Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone/cyclone to two types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation during the boreal winter

The Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone/cyclone (abbreviated to PSAC/PSCC) induced by El Niño/La Niña is a key atmospheric circulation system that connects El Niño/La Niña to the East Asian climate. The asymmetry between PSAC and PSCC is analyzed after El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is divided into eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO and central Pacific (CP) ENSO. For EP ENSO, evident asymmetry exists between EP El Niño‐induced PSAC and EP La Niña‐induced PSCC, with the former being much stronger than the latter, caused by the nonlinearity of the convective anomalies over the western Pacific. Much stronger sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for EP El Niño than for EP La Niña is responsible for this convective heating asymmetry.However, the PSAC and PSCC associated with CP ENSO show much weaker asymmetry compared with those associated with EP ENSO, which is related to the nearly symmetric distribution and intensity of the tropical SST anomalies between CP El Niño and CP La Niña. The resultant almost symmetric anomalous Walker circulation and the comparable convective anomalies over the western Pacific produce weak asymmetric responses of PSAC and PSCC to CP El Niño and CP La Niña. Furthermore, numerical experiments also confirm that the asymmetry in the anomalous convective activity over the western Pacific associated with EP (CP) ENSO is the main reason for the asymmetry between PSAC and PSCC.

Revisiting the relationship between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon

Previous studies have indicated that the relationship between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) weakened significantly after the late 1970s. In this study, the relationship is further analysed based on the impact of different ENSO types. It is found that the relationship between ENSO and the EAWM is related to the ENSO's types. The relationship with the EAWM is strong for eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO but weak for central Pacific (CP) ENSO. The blend of EP and CP ENSO events in the Niño3 index results in a weakened statistical relationship between ENSO and the EAWM. If the pure CP ENSO events are removed from the Niño3 index, the results show that EP ENSO still exerts influence on the EAWM after the late 1970s via its strong connections with the Philippine Sea anticyclone (PSAC) and East Asian trough (EAT), similar to the period before the late 1970s. In contrast, the connections between CP ENSO and the PSAC and EAT are relatively weak, consequently resulting in a weakened relationship between CP ENSO and the EAWM. The influence of mixed (MIX) ENSO on the EAWM is similar to that of EP ENSO. Thus, the EP and MIX ENSO events have had a stable influence on the East Asian winter climate over the past half century, which is significant for the prediction of the East Asian winter climate.

Analysis of ENSO\u2019s response to unforced variability and anthropogenic forcing using CESM

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may change with climate is a major challenge, given the internal variability of the system and relatively short observational record. Here we analyze the effect of coupled internal variability on changes in ENSO under anthropogenic global warming using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We present results from a ~5000 year control run with constant pre-industrial conditions and a 50-member climate change ensemble experiment, consisting of historical hindcasts (1850–2005) and future projections to 2100 following representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Given this large single-model ensemble, we are able to use simple statistical analyses to compare the effects of anthropogenic climate change with the effects of natural modulations in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) metrics, as well as how internal variability may change with global warming. Changes in eastern Pacific ENSO SST metrics due to climate change are secondary to the model’s natural modulations; however, central Pacific ENSO amplitude significantly decreases, to an extent comparable with natural modulations. We also assess the sensitivity of internal variability estimates to ensemble size. The primary role of natural modulations in this ensemble highlights the importance of careful assessment of ocean-atmosphere internal variability in ENSO projections.

The role of South Pacific atmospheric variability in the development of different types of ENSO

AbstractRecent advances in tropical Pacific climate variability have focused on understanding the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, specifically the types or “flavors” of ENSO (i.e., central versus eastern Pacific events). While precursors to ENSO events exist, distinguishing the particular flavor of the expected ENSO event remains unresolved. This study offers a new look at ENSO predictability using South Pacific atmospheric variability during austral winter as an indicator. The positive phase of the leading mode of South Pacific sea level pressure variability, which we term the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), exhibits a meridional dipole with with a(n) (anti)cyclonic anomaly dominating the subtropics (extratropics/high latitudes). Once energized, the cyclonic anomalies in the subtropical node of the SPO weaken the southeasterly trade winds and promote the charging of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, giving rise to eastern Pacific ENSO events. Indeed, the type of ENSO event can be determined accurately using only the magnitude and phase of the SPO during austral winter as a predictor (17 out of 23 cases). The SPO may also play a role in explaining the asymmetry of warm and cold events. Collectively, our findings present a new perspective on ENSO‐South Pacific interactions that can advance overall understanding of the ENSO system and enhance its predictability across multiple timescales.

Impacts of Different Types of ENSO on the Interannual Seesaw between the Somali and the Maritime Continent Cross-Equatorial Flows

The impacts of different types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual negative correlation (seesaw) between the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer (June–August) are investigated using the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C) dataset and numerical experiments with a global atmospheric model [the Met Office Unified Model global atmosphere, version 6 (UM-GA6)]. The results suggest that ENSO plays a prominent role in governing the CEF-seesaw relation. A high positive correlation (0.86) exists between the MC CEF and Niño-3.4 index and also in the case of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, central Pacific (CP) El Niño, EP La Niña, and CP La Niña events. In contrast, a negative correlation (−0.35) exists between the Somali CEF and Niño-3.4 index, and this negative relation is significant only in the EP El Niño years. Further, the variation of the MC CEF is highly correlated with the local north–south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, while the variation of the Somali CEF displays little relation with the local SST gradient. The Somali CEF may be remotely influenced by ENSO. The model results confirm that the EP El Niño plays a major role in causing the weakened Somali CEF via modifying the Walker cell. However, the impact of the EP El Niño on the Somali CEF differs with different seasonal background. It is also found that the interannual CEF seesaw displays a multidecadal change before and after the 1950s, which is linked with the multidecadal strengthening of the intensity of the EP ENSO.

Impacts of enhanced central Pacific ENSO on wave climate and headland-bay beach morphology

Wave climate and Pacific basin coastal behaviour associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is understood at a reconnaissance level, but the coastal response to different central Pacific (CP) versus eastern Pacific (EP) flavours of ENSO is unknown. We show that CP ENSO events produce different patterns of directional wave power to EP ENSO along the southeast Australian shelf and southwest Pacific region, because of significant variability in trade-wind wave generation. The modulation of the trade wind wave climate during CP ENSO has thus far been neglected in existing coastal process studies. We also show that coastal change between CP and EP ENSO cannot be inferred from shifts in the deepwater wave climate. This is because variability in trade wind wave generation is masked in deepwater by the persistence of high power extra-tropical waves that have reduced impact on nearshore processes due to high wave refraction. Morphodynamic modelling in a headland-bay beach indicates that CP ENSO leads to higher coastal erosion potential and slower post-storm recovery than EP ENSO during an El Niño/La Niña cycle. We show that the alongshore variability in beach morphological type can be used to model the static equilibrium planform response for each ENSO phase. Results indicate that shoreline response to ENSO in most headland-bay beach coasts is not as simple as the existing paradigm that (anti-) clockwise rotation occurs during El Niño (La Niña). Our methods provide a second-order approach to project coastal response and predict the discrete shoreline rotations for ENSO flavours.