Easterly Phase Research Articles

The observed connection between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and the persistence of the North Atlantic Oscillation in boreal winter

AbstractThis study reveals that the persistence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during boreal winter is closely linked to the phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) at 30 hPa for the period 1958–2020. Our results show that the early winter (i.e., November–December) NAO signal tends to persist into the subsequent January in the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO). However, in the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO) there is hardly connection between the early winter and the subsequent January NAO signals. Further analysis suggests that there is stronger stratosphere–troposphere connection and stronger amplitude of the NAO during the early winters of the EQBO compared to those of the WQBO. A stronger NAO in the EQBO tends to induce enhanced positive feedback of air–sea interaction, which may contribute to a prolonged signal of the NAO. Specifically, significant surface heat flux anomalies over the high‐latitude and subtropical regions of North Atlantic induced by a stronger early winter NAO may trigger a tripolar pattern of anomalous sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the subsequent January. And this anomalous SST pattern may have a feedback on the atmosphere to strength the anomalous NAO by changing the atmospheric baroclinicity and synoptic eddy activities. In contrast, the NAO in the early winters of the WQBO tends to have a weaker amplitude and be confined to the troposphere. This weaker NAO is shown to induce a weaker air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic, and tends not to favour a prolonged NAO.

Intra-Seasonal Variations and Frequency of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings for Northern Winter in Multi-System Seasonal Hindcast Data

This study investigates intra-seasonal variations and frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings (MSSWs) in Northern winter seasonal hindcasts of six systems from 1993/1994 to 2016/2017, in comparison to the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis data. Results show that, over all, all systems reproduce precursory signals to the MSSWs well, such as the increase in the planetary wave heat flux in the extratropical lower stratosphere and the anomalous planetary wave patterns in the troposphere. Some systems are suggested to underestimate or overestimate the mean MSSW frequency. Such differences in the frequency of the MSSWs among the systems are related to those in the mean strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, and also may be partly contributed by those in the frequency of notable heat flux events. The hindcast data exhibit a weaker mean vortex and an increased MSSW frequency for a warm phase than for a cold phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and for an easterly phase than for a westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. These are qualitatively consistent with reanalysis results, except for a lower MSSW frequency for the warm phase in the reanalysis data. The reanalysis teleconnection results are larger in magnitude than the hindcast results for most ensemble members, although they are included near the edge of the distributions of the ensemble members. The changes in the MSSW frequency with the two external factors are correlated to those in the mean vortex strength among the ensemble members and also the ensemble means for some systems.

On the Relationship Between the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Summer Precipitation in Northern China

AbstractThis paper reports that there has been a significant relationship between the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal wind at 50 hPa in summer and precipitation in August in northern China since the late 1970s. The correlation coefficient between them reaches up to −0.61 during 1979–2018. Associated with the easterly (westerly) phase of the QBO, there is a meridional dipole pattern of zonal wind from the stratosphere to troposphere over the Northwest Pacific in August with the easterly (westerly) anomalies in 25–50°N and westerly (easterly) anomalies in 50–65°N. This meridional zonal‐wind dipole favors the strengthening (weakening) of the tropospheric Japan Sea high in the QBO easterly (westerly) phase, causing an increase (decrease) of the water vapor transportation from the Northwest Pacific to northern China and thus more (less) precipitation in these regions. The finding of this study has import implications for predicting the summer precipitation in northern China in the future.

Influence of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation on the Spatial Structure of the Wintertime Arctic Oscillation

AbstractThis study reveals that the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has a marked impact on the spatial structure of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in boreal winter. In particular, the North Pacific center (NPC) of the AO is stronger during the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO) than the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO). In other words, the variability associated with the AO over the North Pacific is stronger in WQBO years than EQBO years, even though the overall variability is insensitive to QBO phase. The QBO is suggested to influence the spatial pattern of the winter AO mainly via modulating the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex, with a stronger stratospheric polar vortex during WQBO than EQBO years. A stronger stratospheric polar vortex can lead to more planetary wave refraction and facilitate the eastward propagation of wave activity flux from the mid‐latitude North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Thus an enhanced connection between North Pacific and North Atlantic atmospheric variability is established, and a more prominent NPC of the AO occurs in WQBO years. In addition, the modulation of the AO structure by the QBO and the associated physical process is supported by output from the CNRM‐CM6‐1 model. Our results indicate that, for seasonal climate prediction in North America based on the AO, WQBO leads to a larger predictable signal while EQBO leads to reduced skill.

The Leading Mode and Factors for Coherent Variations among the Subsystems of Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon Onset

AbstractPrevious studies on the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) onset mainly focused on each monsoon subsystem. Mainly based on the monthly mean rainfall and low-level winds in May, this study investigated the dominant onset mode from the perspective of the entire tropical ASM region, which reveals the coherent features among the regional-scale onsets. The results of multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis indicate that the MV-EOF1 presents reduced rainfall and anomalous low-level easterly winds at 850 hPa over the tropical ASM region in May during its positive phase. The corresponding principal component (PC1) is highly correlated with the local monsoon onset dates over the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Indo-China Peninsula, and the South China Sea, where the mean monsoon onsets occur in May. The only exception is the Indian subcontinent, where the mean monsoon onsets occur in June. The results indicate that the leading mode captures the synchronized variation of monsoon onset over most Asian monsoon subsystems, which exhibits remarkable interannual and interdecadal changes. The factors that modulate the coherent variation of the tropical ASM onset are further examined. The simultaneously delayed ASM onset tends to occur during the easterly phase of the 30–80-day oscillation, the decaying phase of El Niño, and the positive phase of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The 30–80-day oscillation serves as a background condition for the synchronized delayed or advanced ASM onset. El Niño–related sea surface temperature anomalies modulate the tropical ASM onset mode by modulating the tropical Walker circulation and inducing an atmospheric Rossby wave response. The PDO affects the tropical ASM onset mode mainly via the equatorial Rossby wave response and the extratropical Rossby wave train.

Quasi‐biennial oscillation impacts on Madden–Julianoscillation‐associatedtropical–extratropical interactions and Kelvin waves

AbstractSeveral recent works have demonstrated that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) shows more variance in tropical convection and wind during the easterly phase of stratospheric wind in the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Some of these works have shown that reduced variance during the westerly QBO is associated with fewer repeating cycles of events. This article applies a modulation linear regression algorithm to assess changes in the global atmospheric circulation structure for December–February MJO signals tested when time‐smoothed 50 hPa winds are easterly or westerly at 10 m·s−1. Results show pronounced differences in the associated extratropical upper tropospheric Rossby wave response between the two QBO states, along with a comparatively lower fraction of total eastward wave energy being consistent with Kelvin waves approaching the Indian basin from the west during the westerly QBO. Instead, westerly QBO appears to favour stronger equatorward‐moving extratropical wave precursors across the Western Hemisphere and Eurasia. The results suggest the hypothesis that more dependence on extratropical waves during the westerly QBO may reduce the reliability of the MJO to form sequential trains during the westerly QBO.

Uncertainties in Kelvin Waves in ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts: Insights From Aeolus Observing System Experiments

AbstractThe European Space Agency Earth Explorer mission Aeolus with the first spaceborne Doppler Wind Lidar onboard provides global coverage of wind profiles twice per day. This paper discusses the impact of assimilating Aeolus winds on the quality of tropical analyses and forecasts using the observing system experiments of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather (ECMWF). Presented examples show that Aeolus wind profiles bring changes to the Kelvin wave structure in the layers with a significant vertical shear during the easterly phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation in the period May to September 2020. Comparing Kelvin waves in analyses and forecasts with and without Aeolus winds, it is argued that improved ECMWF forecasts in the tropical tropopause layer are due to vertically propagating Kelvin waves.

The observed influence of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in the lower equatorial stratosphere on the East Asian winter monsoon during early boreal winter

AbstractThis study examines the relationship between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. Here, we consider the effects of QBO winds in the lower stratosphere at 70 hPa. It is found that during the period of 1958–2019, the EAWM in the early winter months (November–December) is weaker in the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than in the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). During EQBO, the northerly monsoon flow is weakened, and anomalous warm temperatures occur over East Asia. Moreover, components of the EAWM circulation system, including the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, East Asian trough, and East Asian jet stream, are all weakened. Our further analysis suggests that the QBO may influence the EAWM directly via a subtropical pathway. The EQBO tends to weaken the East Asian jet stream and shift it poleward, and the changes in the East Asian jet stream lead to a weakened EAWM. The activities of planetary waves are also changed in association with the QBO. Examinations of individual zonal wavenumbers (WNs) of planetary waves in the SLP field reveal that WN 1 is strengthened while WNs 2 and 3 are weakened during EQBO. Specifically, the anomalous WN 2 leads to weakening of the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and East Asian trough, and the anomalous WN 3 reduces the pressure gradient between the East Asia landmass and the western Pacific. The changes in WNs 2 and 3 associated with the QBO play a dominant role in anomalous EAWM.

The stratospheric QBO affects antarctic sea ice through the tropical convection in early austral winter

We found a statistically significant relationship between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in austral winter. SIC differences between the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) and westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO) show positive anomalies of SIC in the following regions: over the Ross Sea, Weddell Sea, and around 90°E. This wave-3 pattern is clearly seen in June and July, and decays in August. The increased SIC regions correspond to anomalous offshore wind regions, and the reduced SIC regions correspond to onshore wind regions, indicating the atmospheric circulation anomaly produced the SIC anomaly. The atmospheric circulation anomaly is barotropic and closely related with the upper atmospheric flow. The upper circulation anomaly shows a stationary Rossby wave train propagating from Indian Ocean. We show the enhanced convection in the tropical Indian Ocean in EQBO can excite the Rossby wave train. In summary, the stratospheric QBO affects the tropical convection, then generating the Rossby wave train which propagates into southern high latitude, and finally affecting Antarctic sea ice. There exists a possibility to predict winter sea ice in one-year advance, because the QBO is a quasi-regular oscillation.

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO2

AbstractLong‐term projections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Using the high‐top “Middle Atmosphere” (MA) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE (E2.2‐AP), we show that increased CO2 reduces the QBO period and weakens its amplitude, consistent with results from recent multimodel studies. The amplitude response is asymmetric, with the easterly phase weakening more than the westerly phase. Results from both coupled atmosphere‐ocean and climatologically fixed sea surface temperature simulations link the period response to changes in parameterized convective gravity wave fluxes, whereas the amplitude changes are more closely tied to changes in tropical upwelling. Comparisons of simulations with and without ozone‐dynamical feedbacks reveal that ozone feedbacks increase the QBO amplitude and period in pre‐industrial control simulations, and reduce the response of the amplitude to increased CO2. The response of stratospheric tracers to projected changes in the QBO is also investigated. Similarity between results using fully interactive (trace gas and aerosol) versus linearized ozone chemical mechanisms suggests that the QBO response to CO2 does not depend on additional chemical feedbacks beyond those associated with ozone, which implies that projected QBO changes may be credibly represented using simplified stratospheric ozone schemes.

Observational evidence of energetic particle precipitation NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> (EPP-NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) interaction with chlorine curbing Antarctic ozone loss

Abstract. We investigate the impact of the so-called energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect on lower stratospheric ozone, ClO, and ClONO2 in the Antarctic springtime. We use observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on Aura, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) on SCISAT, and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat, covering the period from 2005 to 2017. Using the geomagnetic activity index Ap as a proxy for EPP, we find consistent ozone increases with elevated EPP during years with an easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in both OMI and MLS observations. While these increases are the opposite of what has previously been reported at higher altitudes, the pattern in the MLS O3 follows the typical descent patterns of EPP-NOx. The ozone enhancements are also present in the OMI total O3 column observations. Analogous to the descent patterns found in O3, we also found consistent decreases in springtime MLS ClO following winters with elevated EPP. To verify if this is due to a previously proposed mechanism involving the conversion of ClO to the reservoir species ClONO2 in reaction with NO2, we used ClONO2 observations from ACE-FTS and MIPAS. As ClO and NO2 are both catalysts in ozone destruction, the conversion to ClONO2 would result in an ozone increase. We find a positive correlation between EPP and ClONO2 in the upper stratosphere in the early spring and in the lower stratosphere in late spring, providing the first observational evidence supporting the previously proposed mechanism relating to EPP-NOx modulating Clx-driven ozone loss. Our findings suggest that EPP has played an important role in modulating ozone depletion in the last 15 years. As chlorine loading in the polar stratosphere continues to decrease in the future, this buffering mechanism will become less effective, and catalytic ozone destruction by EPP-NOx will likely become a major contributor to Antarctic ozone loss.

Variability in QBO Temperature Anomalies on Annual and Decadal Time Scales

AbstractThe stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) induces temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) that are cold when lower-stratospheric winds are easterly and warm when winds are westerly. Recent literature has indicated that these QBO temperature anomalies are potentially important in influencing the tropical troposphere, and particularly in explaining the relationship between the QBO and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The authors examine the variability of QBO temperature anomalies across several time scales using reanalysis and observational datasets. The authors find that, in boreal winter relative to other seasons, QBO temperature anomalies are significantly stronger (i.e., colder in the easterly phase of the QBO and warmer in the westerly phase of the QBO) on the equator, but weaker off the equator. The equatorial and subtropical changes compensate such that meridional temperature gradients and thus (by thermal wind balance) equatorial zonal wind anomalies do not vary in amplitude as the temperature anomalies do. The same pattern of stronger on-equatorial and weaker off-equatorial QBO temperature anomalies is found on decadal time scales: stronger anomalies are seen for 1999–2019 compared to 1979–99. The causes of these changes to QBO temperature anomalies, as well as their possible relevance to the MJO–QBO relationship, are not known.

Impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation in relation to QBO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall (June to September) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index for the concurrent and succeeding seasons over all India and its three specific regions, i.e., northeast, northwest, and peninsular region has been examined from the years 1953 to 2016. The information is shared for the full series as well as by grouping the seasonal rainfall of India and PDO data according to the different phases (westerly/easterly) of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at the 50 hPa level. The results suggest that for full series, the concurrent season July–August–September (JAS) shows higher degree of association as compared with June–July–August (JJA). When the seasonal rainfall and the PDO index data are stratified according to the phase of QBO, correlation coefficient (CC) values are showing a strong inverse association during the easterly phase of QBO over all India and the northwest region of India while the CC value is reduced during the westerly phase. For the northeast Indian region, concurrent CC values are showing high (low) during the westerly (easterly) phase of QBO. In addition, the warm PDO events are persistent during the summer monsoon period in association of easterly (westerly) phase of QBO causes drought (flood) events over India. However, the cold phase of PDO follows the easterly and westerly phase of QBO where the indication of drought and flood events is not persistent.

Climatology of atmospheric rivers in the Asian monsoon region

AbstractThe climatology of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and their roles on precipitation extremes have been extensively researched over western North America and Europe, yet ARs in Asia, especially for those affecting the densely populated countries including Bangladesh, China, India, Thailand and Vietnam are not adequately understood. Here, the climatological characteristics of landfalling ARs, including their frequency and intensity, in the Asian monsoon region for the period 1979–2017 are investigated using the ECMWF ERA‐Interim reanalysis dataset. The inter‐annual variability of landfalling ARs associated with the combination of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is presented. The results suggest frequent AR activities over southern India, Indochina Peninsula, southern China, Korea and Japan from May to September. ARs are found to contribute up to 44% of the total summer precipitation over the coastal regions of East Asia and up to 36% in South Asia. Also, ARs are associated with up to 68% of the summer extreme precipitation amount in East Asia and 52–56% in South Asia. The connection between ARs and extreme precipitation is partly explained by the increased precipitation efficiency when ARs occur, indicating a stronger ability of the atmospheric dynamical factors to deplete moisture and generate strong precipitation. The analyses of the combined ENSO–QBO effects on ARs show that ARs in the subtropics tend to become less frequent in the years preceded by an El Niño event due to the weakening of the low‐level monsoonal flows associated with the weakened land–sea thermal contrast and upper‐level tropical easterly jet, and such modulations tend to become more significant under the easterly phase of QBO.

Early indications of anomalous behaviour in the 2019 spring ozone hole over Antarctica

ABSTRACT The level of quasi-stationary planetary wave (QSW) activity in the Antarctic winter stratosphere provides insights into the likely behaviour of the ozone hole in the following spring months. Observation of anomalously large amplitude of the QSW in winter stratospheric temperatures is an indicator that strong disturbances to the polar vortex are likely to occur, and may lead to large reductions in both the area of the Antarctic ozone hole and the overall amount of stratospheric ozone that is depleted. In the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) preconditions in 2019, the maximum QSW amplitude over Antarctica in August was approximately 12 K, which was only 2 K less than conditions prior to the unprecedented major SSW in 2002. The additional factors disturbing the Antarctic stratosphere in austral winter 2019 were anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and the western Indian Ocean, and the descending easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Under these preconditions, the Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 had the potential to demonstrate the early disruption and reduced level of the ozone depletion that has been confirmed by the satellite ozone observations. The anomalous ozone hole may also have important regional consequences for weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Lack of QBO‐MJO Connection in CMIP6 Models

AbstractObservational analysis has indicated a strong connection between the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and tropospheric Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO), with MJO activity being stronger during the easterly phase than the westerly phase of the QBO. We assess the representation of this QBO‐MJO connection in 30 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. While some models reasonably simulate the QBO during boreal winter, none of them capture a difference in MJO activity between easterly and westerly QBO that is larger than that which would be expected from the random sampling of internal variability. The weak signal of the simulated QBO‐MJO connection may be due to the weaker amplitude of the QBO than observed, especially between 100 to 50 hPa. This weaker amplitude in the models is seen both in the QBO‐related zonal wind and temperature, the latter of which is thought to be critical for destabilizing tropical convection.

Evidence for energetic particle precipitation and quasi-biennial oscillation modulations of the Antarctic NO<sub>2</sub> springtime stratospheric column from OMI observations

Abstract. Observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite are used to study the effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP, as proxied by the geomagnetic activity index, Ap) on the Antarctic stratospheric NO2 column in late winter–spring (August–December) during the period from 2005 to 2017. We show that the polar (60–90∘ S) stratospheric NO2 column is significantly correlated with EPP throughout the Antarctic spring, until the breakdown of the polar vortex in November. The strongest correlation takes place during years with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO modulation may be a combination of different effects: the QBO is known to influence the amount of the primary NOx source (N2O) via transport from the Equator to the polar region; and the QBO phase also affects polar temperatures, which may provide a link to the amount of denitrification occurring in the polar vortex. We find some support for the latter in an analysis of temperature and HNO3 observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, on Aura). Our results suggest that once the background effect of the QBO is accounted for, the NOx produced by EPP significantly contributes to the stratospheric NO2 column at the time and altitudes when the ozone hole is present in the Antarctic stratosphere. Based on our findings, and the known role of NOx as a catalyst for ozone loss, we propose that as chlorine activation continues to decrease in the Antarctic stratosphere, the total EPP-NOx needs be accounted for in predictions of Antarctic ozone recovery.

Role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the downward extension of stratospheric northern annular mode anomalies

Using the JRA-55 reanalysis datasets and radiosonde observations, the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the downward extension of stratospheric Northern Annular Mode (NAM) signals in its positive and negative phases (positive and negative NAM hereafter) is examined. The results show that the average number of days per month on which stratospheric negative NAM signals extend downward into the troposphere is more than twice as large during the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) as those during the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). The increasing likelihood of downward extension of stratospheric negative NAM signals during the EQBO is related to three factors: enhanced upward wave-1 fluxes entering the stratosphere, anomalous poleward wave fluxes below 100 hPa and EQBO-induced residual circulation. It is also revealed that the EQBO-induced subtropical tropospheric easterly anomalies lead to positive height anomalies over the subtropical North Atlantic, which are amplified by transient eddies and maintained by convection. These subtropical positive height anomalies further stimulate an anomalous wave train, forcing subpolar positive height anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sector and enhancing wave 1. Over the Pacific, the EQBO could also induce positive height anomalies in the tropical troposphere, and these anomalies are related to convection and vertical motion. The positive height anomalies can induce anomalous poleward-propagating waves, forcing negative height anomalies over the North Pacific at mid-high latitudes and the enhancing wave 1. Fewer stratospheric positive NAM signals extend downward into the troposphere during the EQBO than during the WQBO, with mechanisms similar to those of negative NAM.

A tropospheric pathway of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) impact on the boreal winter polar vortex

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is quasi-periodic oscillation of the tropical zonal wind in the stratosphere. When the tropical lower stratospheric wind is easterly (westerly), the winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex tends to be weak (strong). This relation is known as the Holton–Tan relationship. Several mechanisms for this relationship have been proposed, especially linking the tropics with high latitudes through stratospheric pathway. Although QBO impacts on the troposphere have been extensively discussed, a tropospheric pathway of the Holton–Tan relationship has not been explored previously. Here, we propose a tropospheric pathway of the QBO impact, which may partly account for the Holton–Tan relationship in early winter, especially in the November–December period. The study is based on analyses of observational data and results from a simple linear model and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The mechanism is summarized as follows: the easterly phase of the QBO is accompanied with colder temperature in the tropical tropopause layer, which enhances convective activity over the tropical western Pacific and suppresses it over the Indian Ocean, thus enhancing the Walker circulation. This convection anomaly generates a Rossby wave train, propagating into the midlatitude troposphere, which constructively interferences with the climatological stationary waves, especially in wavenumber 1, resulting in enhanced upward propagation of the planetary wave and a weakened polar vortex.

On the role of Rossby wave breaking in the quasi‐biennial modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex during boreal winter

AbstractThe boreal‐winter stratospheric polar vortex is more disturbed when the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere is in its easterly phase (eQBO), and more stable during the westerly phase (wQBO). This so‐called “Holton–Tan effect” (HTE) is known to involve Rossby waves (RWs) but the details remain obscure. This tropical–extratropical connection is re‐examined in an attempt to explain its intraseasonal variation and its relation to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Reanalyses in isentropic coordinates from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System for the 1979–2017 period are used to evaluate the relevant features of RWB in the context of waveguide, wave–mean‐flow interaction, and the QBO‐induced meridional circulation. During eQBO, the net extratropical wave forcing is enhanced in early winter with ∼25% increase in upward propagating planetary‐scale Rossby waves (PRWs) of zonal wave‐number 1 (wave‐1). RWB is also enhanced in the lower stratosphere, characterized by convergent anomalies in the subtropics and at high latitudes and strengthened waveguide in between at 20°N–40°N, 350–650 K. In late winter, RWB leads to finite amplitude growth, which hinders upward propagating PRWs. The effect is most significant for zonal wave‐numbers 2 and 3 (wave‐2‐3). During wQBO, RWB in association with wave‐2‐3 is enhanced in the upper stratosphere. Wave absorption/mixing in the surf zone reinforces a stable polar vortex in early to middle winter. A poleward confinement of the extratropical waveguide in the upper stratosphere forces RWB to extend downward around January. A strengthening of upward propagating wave‐2‐3 follows and the polar‐vortex response switches from reinforcement to disturbance around February, thus a sign reversal of the HTE in late winter.Key Findings• Rossby wave breaking (RWB) is enhanced in the height regions where the zero‐wind line is shifted into the winter hemisphere and where the QBO‐induced meridional circulation is directed toward the winter pole• Polar vortex responses differ in terms of the height location of RWB, zonal wave‐number‐dependent disturbances and seasonal development• Significant increase in wave‐1 occurs when the QBO is in its easterly phase• A cumulative effect of RWB results in enhanced wave forcing of zonal wave‐numbers 2 and 3 during westerly QBO, which manifests in a sign reversal of the Holton–Tan effect in late winter.