Easterly Phase Of Quasi-biennial Oscillation Research Articles

Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Long‐Term Trends in Extratropical Wave Forcing, and the Observed Strengthening of the QBO‐MJO Connection

AbstractA modulation has been identified of the tropical Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) by the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) such that the MJO in boreal winter is ∼40% stronger and persists ∼10 days longer during the easterly QBO phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase. A proposed mechanism is reductions of tropical lower stratospheric static stability during QBOE caused by (a) the QBO induced meridional circulation; and (b) QBO influences on extratropical wave forcing of the stratospheric residual meridional circulation during early winter. Here, long‐term variability of the QBO‐MJO connection and associated variability of near‐tropopause tropical static stability and extratropical wave forcing are investigated using European Center reanalysis data for the 1959–2021 period. During the most reliable (post‐satellite) part of the record beginning in 1979, a strengthening of the QBO‐MJO modulation has occurred during a time when tropical static stability in the lowermost stratosphere and uppermost troposphere has been decreasing and extratropical wave forcing in early winter has been increasing. A high inverse correlation (R = −0.87) is obtained during this period between early winter wave forcing anomalies and wintertime tropical lower stratospheric static stability. Regression relationships are used to show that positive trends in early winter wave forcing during this period have likely contributed to decreases in tropical static stability, favoring a stronger QBO‐MJO connection. As shown in previous work, increased sea level pressure anomalies over northern Eurasia produced by Arctic sea ice loss may have been a significant source of the observed positive trends in early winter wave forcing.

Role of Quasi-Biennial oscillation on the link between sudden stratospheric warming and tropical weather events

This paper illustrates the modulation of meteorological parameters over the tropics in the east and west phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Twenty years composite of SSW episodes have been analysed, and the results show a teleconnection between northern polar SSW and changes in meteorological parameters throughout tropical troposphere to stratosphere during both the phases of QBO. The tropical troposphere shows different temperature pattern in the two opposite phases of QBO during polar SSW. The lower tropospheric temperature decreases about five days prior to the onset day, persisting as such as for about five days post-onset day, and increases rapidly during the east phase whereas a sudden dip in temperature is observed in the west phase. The easterly wind at the upper tropospheric region is observed to be coupled to the easterly wind in the QBO core region of stratosphere during the easterly phase of QBO whereas they are decoupled in the westerly phase. Prior to the peak polar warming, a strong convective cell develops over the southern hemispheric tropics, and a convective cell develops over northern hemisphere during the peak warming period. This study indicates that during the easterly QBO-SSW period, increasing tropopause easterly wind causes tropopause cooling due to easterly wind's coupling with the QBO core region around the onset day of SSW. As a result, the changes in the tropopause strengthen the Hadley cell circulation thus enhancing the convective activity over the tropical region associated with northern polar SSW. Contrary to the prior knowledge of convection being centred mostly along 5°S–10°S, it is found that other convection band located at around 10°N also produces rainfall in the tropical region.

Evaluation of Processes Related to Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in GEFSv12 Subseasonal Hindcasts

Abstract The representation of the stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes is evaluated in the subseasonal Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), hindcasts. The GEFSv12 hindcasts develop systematic stratospheric biases with increasing lead time, including a too strong boreal wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. In the tropical stratosphere, the GEFSv12 winds and temperatures associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) tend to decay with lead time such that they underestimate the observed amplitudes; consistently, the QBO-associated mean meridional circulation is too weak. The hindcasts predict extreme polar vortex events (including sudden stratospheric warmings and vortex intensifications) about 13–14 days in advance, and extreme lower-stratospheric eddy heat flux events about 6–10 days in advance. However, GEFSv12’s ability to predict these events is likely affected by its zonal-mean circulation biases, which increases the rates of false alarms and missed detections. Nevertheless, GEFSv12 shows stratosphere–troposphere coupling relationships that agree well with reanalysis and other subseasonal forecast systems. For instance, GEFSv12 reproduces reanalysis relationships between polar vortex strength and the Northern Annular Mode in the troposphere. It also exhibits enhanced weeks 3–5 prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation index when initialized during strong and weak polar vortex states compared to neutral states. Furthermore, GEFSv12 shows significant differences in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) amplitudes and enhanced MJO predictive skill in week 4 during easterly versus westerly QBO phases, though these results are sensitive to the level used to define the QBO. Our results provide a baseline from which future GEFS updates may be measured.

Summertime ozone pollution in China affected by stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

Abstract. In recent years, the near-surface ozone (O3) level has been rising fast in China, with increasing damage to human health and ecosystems. In this study, the impact of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on interannual variations in summertime tropospheric O3 over China is investigated based on GEOS-Chem model simulations and satellite retrievals. QBO has a significant positive correlation with near-surface O3 concentrations over central China (92.5–112.5∘ E, 26–38∘ N) when the sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, with a correlation coefficient of 0.53, but QBO has no significant effect on O3 under the cold SST anomaly. Compared to the easterly phase of QBO, the near-surface O3 concentrations have an increase of up to 3 ppb (5 % relative to the average) over central China during its westerly phase under the warm SST anomaly. O3 also increases above the surface and up to the upper troposphere, with a maximum increase of 2–3 ppb (3 %–5 %) in 850–500 hPa over central China when comparing westerly phase to easterly phase. Process-based analysis and sensitivity simulations suggest that the O3 increase over central China is mainly attributed to the anomalous downward transport of O3 during the westerly phase of QBO when a warm SST anomaly occurs in the eastern tropical Pacific, while the local chemical reactions and horizontal transport processes partly offset the O3 increase. This work suggests a potentially important role of QBO and the related vertical transport process in affecting near-surface O3 air quality, with an indication for O3 pollution prediction and prevention.

Modulation by the QBO of the Relationship between the NAO and Northeast China Temperature in Late Winter

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has an in-phase relationship with surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Northeast China in late winter. The present study shows that such an NAO–SAT relationship becomes stronger during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but is relatively weak during westerly phases. Observational evidence reveals that the modulation effect of the QBO on the NAO–SAT relationship over Northeast China is attributable to QBO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO and associated stratosphere–troposphere coupling. During easterly QBO phases, the NAO has a strong connection with the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, facilitating a hemisphere-wide structure of the NAO and thus a downstream extension of NAO signal from the Euro–Atlantic sector toward Northeast Asia. During westerly QBO phases, however, the NAO has a limited connection with the stratospheric polar vortex. In this case, the NAO features a classically regional mode, with the signal in the SAT field mainly confined to the Euro-Atlantic sector. By examining historical simulations from six climate models participating in CMIP6 and including stratospheric processes, it is found that none of these models captures a significant difference in the spatial structure of the NAO and its connection with the stratospheric polar vortex between the easterly and westerly QBO phases in late winter. A key reason may be related to the poor performance of the models in simulating the Holton–Tan effect, which is critical for linking the QBO and NAO. Significance Statement The QBO is the dominant mode of equatorial stratospheric variability and important for seasonal forecasting. This study aims to better understand the surface influence of the QBO by examining the relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies over China according to the phases of the QBO during boreal winter. Our results highlight the importance of the QBO in modulating the spatial structure and thus climate impact of the NAO via stratosphere–troposphere coupling in observations, while state-of-the-art climate models perform poorly in simulating the QBO-related stratosphere–troposphere coupling and thus the QBO–NAO connection. These findings have important implications for seasonal prediction and model development in the future.

Numerical simulation of stratospheric QBO impact on the planetary waves up to the thermosphere

With the help of numerical simulation, a detailed analysis of the dynamical effect of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial zonal wind on the planetary waves (PWs) up to thermospheric heights is carried out for the first time. The 3-dimensional nonlinear mechanistic model of middle and upper atmosphere (MUAM) is used, which is capable of simulating the general atmospheric circulation from the surface up to 300–400 km altitude. The amplitudes of stationary and westward travelling PWs with periods from 4 to 10 days are calculated based on ensembles of model simulations for conditions corresponding to the easterly and westerly QBO phases. Fluxes of wave activity and refractive indices of the atmosphere are calculated to analyze the detailed behavior of the PWs. The important result to emerge is that the stratospheric QBO causes statistically significant changes in the amplitudes of individual wave components up to 25% in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere and 10% changes above 200 km. This change in wave structures should be especially noticeable in the atmosphere during periods of low solar activity, when the direct contribution of solar activity fluctuations is minimized. Propagating from the troposphere to the upper atmosphere, PWs contribute to the propagation of the QBO signal not only from the equatorial region to extratropical latitudes, but also from the stratosphere to the thermosphere. The need for a detailed analysis of large-scale wave disturbances in the upper atmosphere and their relationship with the underlying layers is due, in particular, to their significant impact on satellite navigation and communication systems, which is caused by amplitude and phase fluctuations of the radio signal.

Phase Unlocking and the Modulation of Tropopause-Level Trace Gas Advection by the Quasibiennial Oscillation.

Open questions about the modulation of near-surface trace gas variability by stratosphere-troposphere tracer transport complicate efforts to identify anthropogenic sources of gases such as CFC-11 and N2O and disentangle them from dynamical influences. In this study, we explore one model's modulation of lower stratospheric tracer advection by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal winds at 50hPa. We assess instances of coherent modulation versus disruption through phase unlocking with the seasonal cycle in the model and in observations. We quantify modeled advective contributions to the temporal rate of change of stratospheric CFC-11 and N2O at extratropical and high-latitudes by calculating a transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) budget across isentropic surfaces from a 10-member WACCM4 ensemble simulation. We find that positive interannual variability in seasonal tracer advection generally occurs in the easterly QBO phase, as in previous work, and briefly discuss physical mechanisms. Individual simulations of the 10-member ensemble display phase-unlocking disruptions from this general pattern due to seasonally varying synchronizations between the model's repeating 28-month QBO cycle and the 12-month seasonal cycle. We find that phase locking and unlocking patterns of tracer advection calculations inferred from observations fall within the envelope of the ensemble member results. Our study bolsters evidence for variability in the interannual stratospheric dynamical influence of CFC-11 near-surface concentrations by assessing the QBO modulation of lower stratospheric advection via synchronization with the annual cycle. It identifies a likely cause of variations in the QBO influence on tropospheric abundances.

Long‐Term Variation of Lunar Semidiurnal Tides in the MLT Region Revealed by a Meteor Radar Chain

AbstractWe present a study on the long‐term variation of lunar semidiurnal (LSD) tides in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The study is based on a meteor radar chain along ∼120°E meridian, which consists of five stations located at Mohe (MH, 53.5°N, 122.3°E), Beijing (BJ, 40.3°N, 116.2°E), Wuhan (WH, 30.5°N, 114.6°E), Sanya (SY, 18.3°N, 109.6°E), and Ledong (LD, 18.4°N, 109.0°E), respectively. Using the Lomb‐Scargle spectral analysis and least squares fitting method, strong quarter‐annual oscillations in the LSD are found at the three midlatitude stations and their magnitudes are comparable. The LSD magnitudes exhibit clear seasonal and latitudinal differences. The monthly mean magnitudes of LSD reach the maximum in January at all five stations but in other seasons they behave differently at different stations. Besides, the effects of polar vortex weakening (PVW) and quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) phases on the LSD are discussed. Based on the 12 PVW events, our study observes that the enhancement of the LSD is not always related to the commencements of PVW events. The enhancements of the LSD during the easterly QBO phase are generally stronger than those enhancements during the westerly QBO phase in the MLT region. The easterly QBO phase could modulate the mesospheric zonal mean zonal winds at low latitudes during the PVWs, which is in favor of amplifying the LSD. Our results suggest that the QBO phase is an important factor in enhancing the LSD in the MLT region during PVW events.

Discovery of Quasi‐Stationary Equatorial Waves Trapped in Stratospheric QBO Westerly and Easterly Jets

AbstractQuasi‐stationary planetary Rossby waves forced in the extratropical troposphere propagate upwards into the stratospheric vortex and can also be refracted toward the equator. To the extent that such waves penetrate the low latitudes they will be observable as quasi‐stationary zonal eddies in the equatorial middle stratosphere. These eddies should be strongly modulated by the phase of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the mean zonal wind. In this project we used global reanalysis data to examine the quasi‐stationary waves in the monthly mean wind and geopotential fields near the equator and their relation to the QBO mean winds and the extratropical planetary waves. We discovered quasi‐stationary mid‐stratospheric eddy circulations near the equator that often take the form of equatorial planetary modes. Notably a quasi‐stationary equatorial Rossby mode structure can develop during westerly QBO phases, especially when the westerly mean jet is almost symmetric about the equator and deep in the vertical (often in November). More surprisingly, during the easterly QBO phase (EQBO), a modest amplitude quasi‐stationary equatorial Kelvin mode structure develops. Stationary equatorial waves forced in the troposphere will encounter critical surfaces at one or more levels below the mid‐stratosphere, and so presumably cannot account for our findings. A linear, steady model in an equatorial channel that was forced by observed fields specified at extratropical lateral boundaries also cannot fully reproduce the equatorial mode structures, especially for the Kelvin wave during EQBO. Other factors such as transient wave‐mean flow interaction or some dynamic instability might be responsible.

Interaction Between Stratospheric Kelvin Waves and Gravity Waves in the Easterly QBO Phase

AbstractA general circulation model is used to study the interaction between parameterized gravity waves (GWs) and large‐scale Kelvin waves in the tropical stratosphere. The simulation shows that Kelvin waves with substantial amplitudes (∼10 m s−1) can significantly affect the distribution of GW drag by modulating the local shear. Furthermore, this effect is localized to regions above strong convective organizations that generate large‐amplitude GWs, so that at a given altitude it occurs selectively in a certain phase of Kelvin waves. Accordingly, this effect also contributes to the zonal‐mean GW drag, which is large in the middle stratosphere during the phase transition of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Furthermore, we detect an enhancement of Kelvin‐wave momentum flux due to GW drag modulated by Kelvin waves. The result implies an importance of GW dynamics coupled to Kelvin waves in the QBO progression.

Sensitivity of QBO teleconnection to model circulation biases

AbstractThe Quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial stratospheric winds is known to modulate the extratropical atmospheric circulation so that an easterly QBO phase is associated with a weaker Arctic stratospheric vortex and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. The link can potentially be used to improve seasonal forecasts and is usually captured by climate models but with a smaller magnitude than that in observations. Here, the sensitivity of the QBO teleconnection to biases in model circulation is explored in an atmosphere‐only model ECHAM6 with an internally generated QBO, by contrasting simulations by an original, biased model, and a model version in which biases are artificially reduced. We find that the strength of the winter mean Arctic stratospheric vortex response is better reproduced by the bias‐corrected model. On the other hand, the response is delayed by 1 month and there is no improvement in the tropospheric response. Stronger response of the polar vortex in the bias‐corrected model is likely associated with larger magnitude of QBO winds and better‐represented stratospheric mean climate and planetary wave fluxes, but the exact mechanism remains unclear. The results of this study have implications for seasonal forecast model development.

Impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation in relation to QBO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall (June to September) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index for the concurrent and succeeding seasons over all India and its three specific regions, i.e., northeast, northwest, and peninsular region has been examined from the years 1953 to 2016. The information is shared for the full series as well as by grouping the seasonal rainfall of India and PDO data according to the different phases (westerly/easterly) of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at the 50 hPa level. The results suggest that for full series, the concurrent season July–August–September (JAS) shows higher degree of association as compared with June–July–August (JJA). When the seasonal rainfall and the PDO index data are stratified according to the phase of QBO, correlation coefficient (CC) values are showing a strong inverse association during the easterly phase of QBO over all India and the northwest region of India while the CC value is reduced during the westerly phase. For the northeast Indian region, concurrent CC values are showing high (low) during the westerly (easterly) phase of QBO. In addition, the warm PDO events are persistent during the summer monsoon period in association of easterly (westerly) phase of QBO causes drought (flood) events over India. However, the cold phase of PDO follows the easterly and westerly phase of QBO where the indication of drought and flood events is not persistent.

The role of chemical processes in the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal in stratospheric ozone

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is known to cause variations in the transport of chemical tracers but the role of chemical processes in modulating their QBO signals remains unclear. Using ozone observations (Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized, SWOOSH) and a chemical transport model (SLIMCAT), we analyze the role of chemical processes in the QBO impact on stratospheric ozone in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere during winter and early spring over the period 1979–2015. During easterly QBO (EQBO) phases tropical ozone concentrations decrease in the lower stratosphere (40–100 hPa, ~16–23 km) and middle stratosphere (above 15 hPa, ~30 km) but increase in the transition region between 15 and 40 hPa (~23–30 km) compared to westerly (WQBO) phases. Although the contributions of chemical processes to the ozone QBO signal are less than those of dynamical processes, this study highlights their non-negligible role. The negative chemical ozone tendencies in the tropical lower stratosphere, that are attributed to less downward ultraviolet radiation and weaker oxygen photolysis, partially contribute to the negative ozone anomalies at this altitude during EQBO phases, particularly in February and March. In contrast, the negative chemical ozone tendencies related to increased NO2 and stronger NO2-catalyzed ozone loss, which are important in the middle stratosphere, cannot explain the ozone increases in the transition region during EQBO phases, which is mainly caused by the QBO-induced transport of ozone-rich air from above. The positive chemical ozone tendencies in the extratropics during EQBO phases are mainly related to lower temperatures and less active catalytic ozone loss cycles. In addition, reduction in polar stratospheric cloud occurrence associated with the warmer Arctic stratosphere during EQBO phases weakens the heterogeneous chemical processes in the lower stratosphere and decreases chlorine activation, partially contributing to the positive chemical ozone tendency and ozone increases in this region.

Climatology of atmospheric rivers in the Asian monsoon region

AbstractThe climatology of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and their roles on precipitation extremes have been extensively researched over western North America and Europe, yet ARs in Asia, especially for those affecting the densely populated countries including Bangladesh, China, India, Thailand and Vietnam are not adequately understood. Here, the climatological characteristics of landfalling ARs, including their frequency and intensity, in the Asian monsoon region for the period 1979–2017 are investigated using the ECMWF ERA‐Interim reanalysis dataset. The inter‐annual variability of landfalling ARs associated with the combination of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is presented. The results suggest frequent AR activities over southern India, Indochina Peninsula, southern China, Korea and Japan from May to September. ARs are found to contribute up to 44% of the total summer precipitation over the coastal regions of East Asia and up to 36% in South Asia. Also, ARs are associated with up to 68% of the summer extreme precipitation amount in East Asia and 52–56% in South Asia. The connection between ARs and extreme precipitation is partly explained by the increased precipitation efficiency when ARs occur, indicating a stronger ability of the atmospheric dynamical factors to deplete moisture and generate strong precipitation. The analyses of the combined ENSO–QBO effects on ARs show that ARs in the subtropics tend to become less frequent in the years preceded by an El Niño event due to the weakening of the low‐level monsoonal flows associated with the weakened land–sea thermal contrast and upper‐level tropical easterly jet, and such modulations tend to become more significant under the easterly phase of QBO.

The Global Teleconnection Signature of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Modulation by the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

AbstractRecent research has suggested that the tropical and extratropical character of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) depends on the state of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). With this in mind, we use both reanalysis and a global climate model (CESM2‐WACCM) to analyze the global character of upper tropospheric‐lower stratospheric geopotential height anomalies connected with the MJO and quantify dependencies of these teleconnections on the state of the QBO. We find that the global teleconnection signature of the MJO depends upon the state of the QBO. Globally, within reanalysis the fraction of 20‐ to 90‐day 250‐hPa geopotential height variance linked to the MJO is largest during boreal winter and summer for easterly QBO phases and smallest during westerly QBO phases of boreal winter. The difference between QBO phases is mostly driven by changes in the tropical signature of the MJO, although during boreal winter the Northern Hemispheric teleconnections are particularly more prominent during easterly QBO phases. Otherwise, the QBO modulation of extratropical MJO teleconnections is mainly realized through changes in the locations of the teleconnections. A QBO‐MJO relationship is also apparent within CESM2‐WACCM but is weaker than that observed. This extratropical modulation implies that the regions that benefit from increased subseasonal predictability due to the MJO may also change as a function of the QBO. In a broader sense, these findings emphasize that knowledge of the tropical stratospheric state, particularly as it relates to the QBO, is important for understanding the connections between the MJO and the extratropics.

Dependence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on Internal and External Drivers

AbstractA sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is a large‐scale disturbance of the wintertime stratosphere, which occurs especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Earlier studies have shown that SSW occurrence depends on atmospheric internal factors and on solar activity. We examine SSW occurrence in northern winters 1957/1958–2016/2017, considering several factors that may affect the SSW occurrence: Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), geomagnetic activity, and solar radiation. We confirm the well‐known result that SSWs occur more often in easterly QBO phase than in westerly phase. We show that this difference depends on how the QBO phase is determined. We find that the difference in SSW occurrence between easterly and westerly QBO winters strengthens (weakens) if geomagnetic activity or solar activity is low (high), or if the ENSO is in a cold (warm) phase. In easterly QBO phase significantly more SSWs occur during low geomagnetic activity than high activity.

Modulation of the Westerly and Easterly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Phases on the Connection between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation

Previous studies have revealed the relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The MJO phase 2/3 is followed by the positive AO phase, and the MJO phase 6/7 is followed by the negative AO phase. This study reveals that the MJO phase 6/7–AO connection is modulated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) through both tropospheric and stratospheric pathways during boreal winter. The MJO 2/3 phase and AO relationship is favored in both QBO easterly (QBOE) and westerly (QBOW) years because of the MJO-triggered tropospheric Rossby wave train from the tropics toward the polar region. The AO following the MJO 6/7 phase shifts to negative in QBOW years, but the MJO–AO connection diminishes in QBOE years. In QBOW years, the Asian-Pacific jet is enhanced, leading to more evident poleward propagation of tropospheric Rossby wave train, which contributes to the tropospheric pathway of the AO–MJO 6/7 connection. Besides, the enhanced Asian-Pacific jet in QBOW years is favorable for vertical propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere in MJO phase 6/7, leading to negative AO, which indicates the stratospheric pathway of the AO–MJO 6/7 connection.

Modulation of the MJO‐Related Teleconnections by the QBO

AbstractPrevious studies have provided observational evidence for a correlation between certain phases of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), at a lag of about 10 days. Such a relation implies that the tropical convection of the MJO may provide sources of skill for subseasonal predictions in the extratropical regions. In this study, we show that the MJO‐NAO connection is influenced by the phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). During the westerly phase of QBO (WQBO), a stronger and longer lasting MJO‐NAO teleconnection is observed. About 10 days after the MJO phase 3 (7), which corresponds to enhanced (suppressed) diabatic heating anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean and reduced (enhanced) convection in the western Pacific, a positive (negative) NAO tends to occur. On the other hand, under the easterly phase of QBO (EQBO), the MJO‐NAO teleconnection is also observed, but weaker and with less statistical significance. The QBO possibly influences the MJO‐related teleconnection by modulating the extratropical basic state. During WQBO years, there is subtropical anomalous westerly wind in the North Pacific, and as a result, the enhanced subtropical westerly jet provides a favorable environment for the MJO‐induced extratropical Rossby wave to propagate. The anomalous high‐latitude North Atlantic westerly is also favorable for troposphere‐stratosphere coupling and for the NAO to develop.

Influence of the QBO on the MJO During Coupled Model Multiweek Forecasts

AbstractSeasonal activity of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is observed to be greater during austral summer when the lower stratospheric winds are in the easterly phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Using initialized predictions from two coupled model seasonal prediction systems, we show a systematic impact of the QBO on the amplitude of the MJO during the first few days of the forecast before model biases become too large. In both models as for the observed, the difference in MJO amplitude between easterly phases and westerly phases of the QBO increases with lead time, despite having similar initial amplitudes. Enhanced destabilization of the tropopause is argued to be the key mechanism that promotes stronger MJO convection during easterly phase of QBO. Caveats for the inability of the models to reproduce the observed strength of the MJO‐QBO relationship are discussed.

Interannual variations of water vapor in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere and their connections to ENSO and QBO

Abstract. In this study, we analyze the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder water vapor data in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere (UTLMS) (from 215 to 6 hPa) for the period from August 2004 to September 2017 using time-lag regression analysis and composite analysis to explore the interannual variations of tropical UTLMS water vapor and their connections to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our analysis shows that the interannual tropical UTLMS water vapor anomalies are strongly related to ENSO and QBO which together can explain more than half (∼ 50 %–60 %) but not all variance of the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. We find that ENSO's impact is strong in the upper troposphere (∼ 215–∼ 120 hPa) and near the tropopause (∼ 110–∼ 90 hPa), with a ∼ 3-month lag but weak in the lower and middle stratosphere (∼ 80 to ∼ 6 hPa). In contrast, QBO's role is large in the lower and middle stratosphere, with an upward-propagating signal starting at the tropopause (100 hPa) with a ∼ 2-month lag, peaking in the middle stratosphere near 15 hPa with a ∼ 21-month lag. The phase lag is based on the 50 hPa QBO index used by many previous studies. This observational evidence supports that the QBO's impact on the tropical stratospheric water vapor is from its modulation on the tropical tropopause temperature and then transported upward with the tape recorder as suggested by many previous studies. In the upper troposphere, ENSO is more important than QBO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies that are positive during the warm ENSO phases but negative during the cold ENSO phases. Near the tropopause, both ENSO and QBO are important for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. Warm ENSO phase and westerly QBO phase tend to cause positive water vapor anomalies, while cold ENSO phase and easterly QBO phase tend to cause negative water vapor anomalies. As a result, the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies near the tropopause are different depending on different ENSO and QBO phase combinations. In the lower and middle stratosphere, QBO is more important than ENSO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. For the westerly QBO phases, interannual tropical water vapor anomalies are positive near the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere but negative in the middle stratosphere and positive again above. Vice versa for the easterly QBO phases.