East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Research Articles

East Asian monsoon and westerly jet driven changes in climate and surface conditions in the NE drylands of China since the Late Pleistocene

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is a major component of the global climate yet, the causes for the past spatiotemporal variability of EASM rainfall, its interactions and impacts remain unresolved. Here we use the Sr–Nd isotopes and rare earth elements composition of dust in a peat record from northeast (NE) China to investigate the relationship between aeolian dust, the East Asian monsoon and Westerly Jet (WJ) over East Asia since the Late Pleistocene (14 cal ka BP). The NE drylands of China dominate the dust fraction (Hunshandake, Horqin; 44–88%) with a contribution from the deserts of NW China (Badain Jaran, Tengger, Taklamakan; 10–44%), suggesting an influence of the WJ. Dust deposition varied during the Holocene, displaying a minimum between 8.0 and 6.0 cal ka BP and two peaks at 5.8–3.8 and 1.7–0.3 cal ka BP. Changes in dust flux are opposite to the East Asian winter monsoon intensity profile, suggesting a limited influence of the winter monsoon. The EASM appears to have played a more significant role in the dust cycle, with increasing dust fluxes corresponding with lower EASM precipitation. Variations in dust flux from NE drylands display shifts reflecting changes in EASM precipitations and dune activity along the EASM margin, where the dust originates from. To account for the influence of the WJ, we propose that the meridional position and intensity of the WJ also affected dust emission in the drylands’ region. A more northward position of the WJ allows the EASM front further north, generating more precipitations over the NE drylands, reducing the extent of arid areas, and resulting in less dust emission from dune activity, while the opposite occurs with a strong, more southerly WJ. Anthropogenic activities are likely to have had an increasing impact on the dust cycle over the late Holocene. Nevertheless, the presence of inconsistencies in records, coupled with a simultaneous decline in climatic conditions (mainly precipitations) during the same timeframe, hinders the precise assessment of the influence of human activities on dust emissions in the region.

Identification of the atmospheric water sources and pathways responsible for the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall

AbstractThe East Asian summer monsoon rainfall provides water security and socio‐economic benefit for over 20% of the global population. However, the sources of this rainfall and how it is carried to the East Asian landmass are still uncertain. To address this, atmospheric water sources and pathways associated with the East Asian summer rainfall are identified and quantified in this study using atmospheric water trajectories, calculated with a novel Lagrangian framework. Evaporated water from the East Asian landmass is found to be the major contributor to East Asian rainfall, amounting to local recycling. The results further indicated that the south Indian Ocean is a major non‐local source for rainfall over southern East Asia during June to August. The role of the south Indian Ocean as a source of atmospheric water is one of the major findings of the study and would help in better understanding and predicting the East Asian summer rainfall. Evaporated waters from the Pacific Ocean (particularly the far‐west Pacific Ocean) dominate the non‐local contribution to precipitation over northern East Asia during June to September and over southern East Asian rainfall during September. The spatial structure of the East Asian rainfall is reported to be determined by the atmospheric waters that are evaporated and transported from the non‐local sources. The role of the north Indian Ocean and the South Asian landmass as a source of water for East Asian precipitation is minimal and restricted to southern East Asia. The cross‐equatorial Somali jet and equatorial trade winds associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high are important pathways for East Asian precipitation sourced over the south Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean respectively. In contrast, minor roles are attributed to the Bay of Bengal as a source, and midlatitude westerlies as a transport pathway, for East Asian precipitation.

Joint Impacts of Intraseasonal Oscillation and Diurnal Cycle on East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Intraseasonal and diurnal variations are two basic periodic oscillations in global/regional climate and weather. To investigate their joint impacts over East Asia, this paper categorizes the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in 1998–2019 into two groups with different diurnal cycles. It is shown that the active ISOs with large diurnal cycles feature a northwestward-moving anomalous anticyclone with strong southerlies at the western flank. These ISOs have in-phase patterns of geopotential height anomaly between low and midlatitudes over East Asia, associated with the simultaneous expansions of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and South Asian high (SAH). They couple with the anomalous ABL heating by daytime solar radiation over East Asia, which acts to enhance monsoon southerlies at midnight. The nocturnally strengthened southerlies facilitate dynamic lifting, moisture transport, and convective instability for producing midnight to morning rainfall at their northern terminus, thereby yielding a remarkable northward propagation of the monsoon rain belt. In contrast, the other ISOs with small diurnal cycles are related to a westward-moving anomalous anticyclone, while the WPSH and SAH have relatively small expansions and the westerly trough is active at middle latitudes. They lead to the dipole patterns of geopotential height anomaly and weak ABL heating over East Asia. The daily-mean southerlies and moisture conditions as well as their nocturnal enhancements are relatively weak, and thus, the northward shift of the monsoon rain belt is less pronounced. These results highlight that the large-scale conditions of ISOs can be distinguished by their different couplings with regional-scale diurnal forcings, which help the understanding and prediction of multiscale rainfall activities.

Sea level and East Asian monsoon influenced chemical weathering records in the southern South China Sea over the past 21 ka

High-resolution major element geochemistry of Core MD05–2892 from the lower Sunda Slope was analyzed to investigate the variation of chemical weathering records and its controlling factors in the southern South China Sea since the last glaciation. Chemical index of alteration (CIA) and SiO2/Na2O ratio were selected as chemical weathering proxies. The values of the proxies are higher during the last glaciation than during the Holocene. We attribute this to the provenance shift caused by sea level change. Provenance analysis indicates that the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra were the major sediment sources for the study region during the last glaciation, while the Indochina Peninsula has been the major source since the early Holocene. Accordingly, the weathering evolution analysis reveals increased physical erosion in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra during enhanced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall, while increased chemical weathering in the Indochina Peninsula during the intensified monsoon rainfall. Therefore, the chemical weathering records of the deep-sea sediments in the southern South China Sea were regulated by monsoon rainfall-driven physical erosion in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra during the last glaciation, while the records have been influenced by monsoon rainfall-induced chemical weathering in the Indochina Peninsula since the early Holocene. This study emphasizes that higher weathering values of the deep-sea sediments during the last glaciation could be related to the provenance variation driven by sea level change, rather than to enhanced chemical weathering in the same provenance.

Holocene hydroclimate and dust activity, as reconstructed from the sediments of Lake Bayanchagan, on the northern margin of the East Asian summer monsoon

Abstract The sediments of closed-basin lakes on the margin of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are valuable archives of past changes in hydroclimate and dust activity and thus potentially can help us to understand future climate changes. We present high-resolution, well-dated records of the grain size and carbonate mineralogy from Lake Bayanchagan, northern China, spanning the last 11.5 ka. Grain-size endmember (EM) analysis distinguished four EMs, each linked to different sediment transport processes. EM1 (0.4–0.6 μm) and EM3 (14–102 μm) reflect the strength of regional dust activity, whereas EM2 (1.3–31 μm) represents variations in local hydrodynamic conditions related to lake-level changes and EM4 (68–500 μm) is associated with local dust activity. Our results show that a high lake level and weakened dust activity occurred during 10–5.8 ka, as indicated by increased EM2 and decreased EM3, respectively. After 5.8 ka, EM2 decreased as the three other EMs increased, and dolomite appeared in the sediments while calcite decreased—indicating both a decline in lake level and strengthened dust activity. The fluctuations in lake level and dust activity are in good agreement with precipitation variations reconstructed from other records, which are in turn correlated to movement of the EASM rainfall belt, in response to temperature changes.

Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability

The Asian monsoon provides the freshwater that a large population in Asia depends on, but how anthropogenic climate warming may alter this key water source remains unclear. This is partly due to the prevailing point-wise assessment of climate projections, even though climate change patterns are inherently organized by dynamics intrinsic to the climate system. Here, we assess the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting the precipitation from several large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 simulations onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The result shows a remarkable agreement among the ensembles on the increasing trends and the increasing daily variability in both dynamical modes, with the projection pattern emerging as early as the late 2030 s. The increase of the daily variability of the modes heralds more monsoon-related hydrological extremes over some identifiable East Asian regions in the coming decades.

Seasonal predictable signals of east Asian summer monsoon rainfall in existing monsoon indices

Seasonal predictable signals of east Asian summer monsoon rainfall in existing monsoon indices

The Relationship between Model Biases in East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Land Evaporation

The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) provides the majority of annual rainfall to countries in East Asia. Although state-of-the-art models broadly project increased EASM rainfall, the spread of projections is large and simulations of present-day rainfall show significant climatological biases. Systematic evapotranspiration biases occur locally over East Asia, and globally over land, in simulations both with and without a coupled ocean. This study explores the relationship between evapotranspiration and EASM precipitation biases. First, idealized model simulations are presented in which the parameterization of land evaporation is modified, while sea surface temperature is fixed. The results suggest a feedback whereby excessive evapotranspiration over East Asia results in cooling of land, a weakened monsoon low, and a shift of rainfall from the Philippine Sea to China, further fueling evapotranspiration. Cross-model regressions against evapotranspiration over China indicate a similar pattern of behavior in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Possible causes of this pattern are investigated. The feedback is not explained by an overly intense global hydrological cycle or by differences in radiative processes. Analysis of land-only simulations indicates that evapotranspiration biases are present even when models are forced with prescribed rainfall. These are strengthened when coupled to the atmosphere, suggesting a role for land-model errors in driving atmospheric biases. Coupled atmosphere-ocean models are shown to have similar evapotranspiration biases to those in AMIP over China, but different precipitation biases, including a northward shift in the ITCZ over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

Chemical weathering evidence for East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall variability in the upper reaches of the Yellow River since the Early Pleistocene

The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is critically important for determining the spatial variability of precipitation in the continental interior of East Asia. Hence, knowledge of past EASM variability may help predict the response of monsoon rainfall to ongoing global climate change, with important implications for the living environment of the large human population of East Asia. In this study, we obtained several geochemical records from the Hetao Basin in the upper reaches of the Yellow River (UYR), which we use to reconstruct variations in chemical weathering intensity since 1.68 Ma. Our results suggest that chemical weathering was significantly intensified during the interval of ∼0.47–0.18 Ma, evidenced by lower Rb/Sr and αAlSr values, and higher LEF Mg/Al values, within the lacustrine sediments during this period. This enhanced chemical weathering was closely linked to increased monsoon rainfall associated with a strong EASM. The long-term trends of EASM rainfall in the UYR were caused by variations in the atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean, such as the ENSO cycle and the PDO phase transition, which may act as testable factors in the prediction of future EASM rainfall.

The Influences of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the ENSO-Independent Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract As the most dominant tropical climate mode on the interannual time scale, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is suggested to significantly influence the interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IEASMR). However, the leading mode of IEASMR remains almost untouched when the impacts of preceding ENSO events are linearly removed, suggesting the existence of alternative impact factors and predictability sources of IEASMR. After removing the impact of ENSO, the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over both the tropical Atlantic and extratropical North Atlantic are found to be related to IEASMR through atmospheric teleconnections. Positive SSTA over the tropical Atlantic could induce tropical diabatic heating, which triggers an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave train emanating from the Atlantic, going across the Eurasian continent, and ending with a cyclonic anomaly over northeast Asia. The tropical diabatic heating could also induce western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone via tropical routes. The dipole SSTA pattern with cooling in the west and warming in the east over the extratropical North Atlantic induces local circulation anomalies through heat flux exchange, which could further perturb a Rossby wave train with a cyclonic anomaly over northeast Asia, thus modulating IEASMR. Numerical experiments with prescribed atmospheric heating associated with Atlantic SSTAs could realistically reproduce these teleconnections toward IEASMR. By adding the predictability sources of Atlantic SSTAs, the seasonal hindcast skills of IEASMR could be significantly improved over both the tropical western North Pacific and subtropical land regions such as central China and Japan. Significance Statement The purpose of this article is to identify the alternative impact factors of the interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IEASMR), after removing the impact of ENSO, considering the limited contribution of ENSO to the variances of IEASMR. Here, we find that the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) play a considerable role in driving IEASMR. The impact of ENSO on IEASMR is mainly confined to the tropical western North Pacific, while the Atlantic SSTAs influence rainfall over subtropical East Asia and the tropical western North Pacific through both tropical and extratropical routes. The results unravel the important roles of Atlantic SSTAs in driving ENSO-independent IEASMR, which will have a large implication for the seasonal prediction of East Asian summer climate.

Coupling of the ecosystems in North China with the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall during the Holocene

The influence of Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall on ecosystems over northern China remains controversial: delay or synchronization. Here we present Holocene quantitatively reconstructed temperature and salinity records based on alkenone proxies in the Dali Lake from northern China. Our data indicate that the Dali Lake was significantly diluted to a freshwater lake (0.8 ± 0.4 g/L) during ∼11.4–3.8 cal ka BP, relative to the modern brackish state. From the early Holocene (before 8.0 cal ka BP) to the middle Holocene (8.0–5.0 cal ka BP), the average salinity value of Dali Lake decreased by ∼0.3 g/L (ca. 30%), but our reconstructed temperature record shows an increase of ∼2.1 °C. In the context of climate warming, the evaporation was enhanced, and thus the decline in salinity is attributed to the increased precipitation, indicating a mid-Holocene EASM rainfall maximum. After comparing our reconstruction with vegetation data, we proposed that the stable and abundant EASM rainfall promoted the forest expansion and vegetation recovery over northern China during the mid-Holocene, suggesting the coupling of ecosystems and EASM rainfall in North China.

Inter‐Model Spread of the Simulated East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the Associated Atmospheric Circulations From the CMIP6 Models

AbstractThe model uncertainty, one of the major sources of projection uncertainty, is still a challenge in the climate change projection. In this study, the model uncertainty in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and its physical link to the upper‐level jet streams and the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) are investigated from the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The results show that extracted by the inter‐model Empirical Orthogonal Function method, the leading inter‐model mode of the rainfall is characterized as a meridional pattern. The positive mode (a continent‐wet‐ocean‐dry pattern) is closely associated with a northward shift of the oceanic branch of the East Asian subtropical jet and a northward movement of the WNPSH, while the negative mode (a continent‐dry‐ocean‐wet pattern) is highly correlated with an enhanced East Asian polar‐front jet combined with a weakened land branch of the East Asian subtropical jet as well as a weakened and eastward recess of the WNPSH. This systematic link among the atmospheric circulations and the leading inter‐model mode is maintained by the negative phase of the Victoria Mode in the North Pacific and warming over the Atlantic Ocean in the positive mode, and the cooling over the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and the warming over the central Pacific in the negative mode. Our findings suggest that the physical linkage between the atmospheric circulations and monsoon rainfall is useful to understand the model uncertainty, which would be helpful in providing potential indicators of the East Asia summer monsoon change.

Seasonal predictable source of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in addition to the ENSO–AO

Seasonal predictable source of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in addition to the ENSO–AO

Greenhouse gases modulate the strength of millennial-scale subtropical rainfall, consistent with future predictions

Abstract. Millennial-scale East Asian monsoon variability is closely associated with natural hazards through long-term variability in flood and drought cycles. Therefore, exploring what drives the millennial-scale variability is of significant importance for future prediction of extreme climates. Here we present a new East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall reconstruction from the northwest Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) spanning the past 650 kyr. The magnitude of millennial-scale variability (MMV) in EASM rainfall is linked to ice volume and greenhouse gas (GHG) at the 100 kyr eccentricity band and to GHG and summer insolation at the precession band. At the glacial–interglacial timescale, gradual changes in CO2 during intermediate glaciations lead to increased variability in North Atlantic stratification and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, propagating abrupt climate changes into East Asia via the westerlies. Within the 100 kyr cycle, precession variability further enhances the response, showing that stronger insolation and increased atmospheric GHG cause increases in the MMV of EASM rainfall. These findings indicate increased extreme precipitation events under future warming scenarios, consistent with model results.

Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium

Extreme East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall frequently induces floods that threaten millions of people, and has been generally attributed to internal climate variability. In contrast to the hydrological weakening theory of volcanic eruptions, here we present convergent empirical and modeling evidence for significant intensification of EASM rainfall in response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Our multi-proxy analyses show a significantly increased EASM in the first summer after tropical eruptions from 1470 AD to the present, and the more frequent occurrence of El Niños in the first boreal winter after eruptions is necessary for the enhanced EASM. Model simulation ensembles show that a volcano-induced El Niño and the associated stronger than non-volcanic El Niño warm pool air-sea interaction intensify EASM precipitation, overwhelming volcanic-induced moisture deficiency. This work sheds light on the intertwined relationship between external forcing and internal climate variability and potential flood disasters resulting from tropical volcanic eruptions.

ENSO effect on hydroclimate changes in southeastern China over the past two millennia

Meteorological observations indicate that both natural and anthropogenic forcing contribute to regional drought/flood in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain. However, spatiotemporal rainfall pattern and its dynamics during natural climatic variability remains unclear. Here we reconstruct a ∼3 year-resolution EASM precipitation record over the past two millennia, based on 13 230Th dates and 600 δ18O in a stalagmite from Songya Cave, southeastern China. The δ18O sequence shows a long-term decreasing trend, indicating an increasing monsoon precipitation over the past two millennia. A series of centennial-scale fluctuations are superimposed on the long-term trend, with a wetter Little Ice Age than the Medieval Warm Period. The long-term trend and centennial-scale oscillations in EASM rainfall are broadly related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) variations, with an increased (decreased) EASM rainfall corresponding to El Niño-like (La Niña-like) conditions and positive (negative) phase of PDO. Comparison of δ18O records from Songya and Wanxiang Cave shows an anti-phased spatial rainfall pattern between southeastern and northwestern China. This spatiotemporal rainfall pattern, consistent with the modern observations, is possibly regulated by the ENSO, through changes in the location and strength of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH).

Tectonic and Orbital Imprints in the Redox History of Japan Sea Since the Pliocene

AbstractOxygen content in the deep ocean plays a vital role in biogeochemical processes and has significant impacts on the global carbon cycle. The Japan Sea is a semiclosed basin with only shallow water connection to the Western North Pacific, and its redox history has been sensitively affected by tectonic and climatic changes in the past. Studies of paleo‐redox changes in the Japan Sea focused on the tectonic and orbital scales since the Pliocene remain scarce to date. Here, we present two high‐resolution paleo‐redox records during the last 4 Ma at IODP Sites U1425 and U1430 drilled in the Japan Sea. Our authigenic U (uranium) and U/Al records suggest remarkable changes of Japan Sea redox history from relatively oxic to periodic oxic‐anoxic conditions at ∼1.7 Ma. This was mainly caused by the restricted input of North Pacific oxygen‐rich water due to the uplift of northeastern Japan during late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, and opening of the Tsushima Strait and the periodic intrusion of Tsushima Warm Current following sea level change during glacial‐interglacial cycles since ∼1.7 Ma. Orbital changes of Japan Sea redox history suggest the existence of a long eccentricity cycle of 400 ka associated with East Asian summer monsoon rainfall evolution throughout the last 4 Ma. Changes of the amplitude of sea level and inflow of Tsushima Warm Current combined with the East Asian monsoon evolution produced eccentricity and obliquity cycles in Japan Sea redox environment after ∼1.7 Ma, as well as a transition from relatively oxic to anoxic conditions during glacials before and after Middle Pleistocene Transition.

Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in CMIP6 models

Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in CMIP6 models

The role of Tibetan summer low clouds in the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon rain belt

AbstractIt has been challenging to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using general circulation models. By evaluating the cloud layers unified by binormals (CLUBB) model and its revised version in the version‐5 Community Atmosphere Model, we find that EASM simulations benefit from improving the reproduction of low clouds over the Tibetan Plateau. When a cloud‐top radiative cooling scheme (RAD) is coupled with CLUBB, it significantly improves the resulting EASM rain belt and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) simulations compared to the default simulations without RAD; in these default simulations, the low‐level southwesterlies, WPSH ridge, and EASM rain belt are displaced northward. The moisture budget analyses indicate that the improvements in EASM simulations are mainly contributed to by the improved presentation of low‐level stationary eddy meridional flow convergence over East Asia; this convergence shifts northward during the default model runs. Because the RAD scheme enables the model to better represent the subgrid radiation–turbulence interaction, the model produces stronger turbulent fluxes and lower clouds but reduces incoming solar radiation over the Tibetan Plateau. It thus shifts the Tibetan High southward, ultimately resulting in an improved simulation of the low‐level southwesterlies. These improvements in CLUBB_RAD highlight the importance of improving the representation of low clouds when simulating EASM rainfall.

East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomalies in 2020 and the Role of Northwest Pacific Anticyclone on the Intraseasonal‐to‐Interannual Timescales

AbstractIn summer 2020, extreme rainfall occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). The accumulated precipitation amount of this rainfall event broke the record since 1961. On the interannual timescale, seasonal mean rainfall anomalies in the YRB during summer 2020 are related to the tropical North Indian Ocean (NIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming and a La Niña event in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Both the NIO SST warming and La Niña help to generate the anomalous tropospheric low‐level Northwest Pacific anticyclone (NWP‐AAC) via the Matsuno‐Gill type response. On the subseasonal timescale, rainfall anomalies in the YRB exhibit two significant periods during summer 2020, intraseasonal (40–60 days) and quasi‐biweekly (∼10 days). The former intraseasonal component is the focus of this study. The intraseasonal NWP‐AAC, which is a part of tropical intraseasonal oscillation, plays a dominant role in connecting the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall with tropical convection. Using the pattern regression, a real‐time index (RTI) is proposed to represent the intraseasonal‐to‐interannual variability of the NWP‐AAC. The RTI captures the quasi‐biennial tendency of NWP‐AAC as well as its intraseasonal variability. These suggest that the NWP‐AAC is a common mode across timescales. Also, the RTI well depicts the EASM rainfall variability in 2020. Our results provide an alternative view of cross‐scale EASM variability, with an emphasis on the conduit effect of NWP‐AAC from intraseasonal to interannual timescale. Hence, the RTI could be utilized for subseasonal to seasonal climate monitoring in the Asian summer monsoon region.