East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Research Articles

Inter-Model Spread in Representing the Impacts of ENSO on the South China Spring Rainfall in CMIP6 Models

A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR.

Interdecadal variability of summer precipitation in the Three River Source Region: Influences of SST and zonal shifts of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet

Summer precipitation in the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR) of China is vital for the headwaters of the Yellow, Yangtze, and Lancang rivers and exhibits significant interdecadal variability. This study investigates the influence of the East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) on TRSR rainfall. A strong correlation is found between TRSR summer precipitation and the Jet Zonal Position Index (JZPI) of the EAWJ from 1961 to 2019 (R = 0.619, p < 0.01). During periods when a positive JZPI indicates a westward shift in the EAWJ, enhanced water vapor anomalies, warmer air, and low-level convergence anomalies contribute to increased TRSR summer precipitation. Using empirical orthogonal function and regression analyses, this research identifies the influence of large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection (AEA) from the North Atlantic (NA). The interdecadal variability between the NA and central tropical Pacific (CTP) significantly affects TRSR precipitation. This influence is mediated through the AEA via a Rossby wave train extending eastward along the EAWJ, and another south of 45°N. Moreover, the NA–CTP Opposite Phase Index (OPI), which quantifies the difference between the summer mean sea surface temperatures of the NA and the CTP, is identified as a critical factor in modulating the strength of this teleconnection and influencing the zonal position of the EAWJ.摘要本研究探讨了年代际东亚西风急流的纬向移动对黄河, 长江和澜沧江源头—三江源区夏季降水的影响. 研究发现, 在1961–2019年间, 三江源区夏季降水量与急流纬向位置指数 (JZPI) 在年代际尺度上存在强正相关 (R=0.619, p<0.01) . 当JZPI呈正值, 也就是东亚西风急流向西移动时, 增强的水汽, 温暖的气流和低层辐合异常有助于三江源区夏季降水增加. 北大西洋与中太平洋之间的年代际变化对三江源区的降水有着显著的影响, 主要以北大西洋–欧亚遥相关 (AEA) 方式, 通过沿东亚西风急流向东延伸的罗斯贝波列, 以及45°N以南的另一波列来影响三江源区的降水. 进一步分析发现, 北大西洋与中太平洋反向相位指数 (OPI) 作为一个关键因素, 可量化北大西洋与中太平洋之间夏季平均海表温度的差异, 调控该遥相关的强度并影响急流的纬向位置.

Associated impact mechanism of heavy rain and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river basin based on ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns

Heavy rainfall and flooding disasters are increasing due to global warming. A clear understanding of the mechanism of heavy rain and floods is the basic premise of disaster risk management. However, most previous studies emphasized more on the single anomalous signal from the average state in the whole season, which may neglect the combined influence of multiple signals in the ocean-atmosphere and differential characteristics of anomalous signals at different periods. Here, our study aimed to reveal the possible influence mechanism of heavy rain and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLRYRB) by systematically analyzing the monthly-scale and daily-scale ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns in the preceding periods of heavy rainfall and flooding events. The results showed that heavy rainfall and flooding events were highly likely to occur in the region one month after El Niño decayed, with the flooding intensity in June having the negative correlation with the sea ice concentration anomaly in the Arctic with a lag of about 5 months (150 days). Besides, North Atlantic Oscillation, Western Pacific subtropical high, blocking, East Asian subtropical westerly jet, and the water vapor fluxes from the Arabian Sea and western Pacific Ocean could be used as the anomalous signals inducing heavy rain and floods. The daily-scale conceptual model inducing heavy rainfall and flooding events was built based on the patterns of all anomalous signals, which detailed the possible impact mechanism of heavy rain and floods in the region. By making targeted forecasts of anomalous signals and using this information in water resources planning and management based on climate mechanisms, it will have a significant impact on water management in the country.

Intraseasonal northward evolution of the extreme autumn rainfall event in West China in 2021

An excessive “autumn rain of West China” (ARWC) event, concentrated between August 23 and October 7, 2021, produced the greatest amount of precipitation recorded during 1961–2021. This event exhibited notable intraseasonal northward movement of rainfall from the first phase (P1; August 23–September 7) to the second phase (P2; September 17–October 7). Analysis links this event to two key atmospheric factors: the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) and the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EAJ). Persistent and robust contrast in convection between the Maritime Continent (MC) and the central tropical Pacific strengthened the WNPAC, transporting moisture to West China. Simultaneously, the EAJ, positioned northward of West China, enhanced upward motion contributing to the excessive ARWC. During P1, anomalous cyclone prevails over the regions from northern China to Japan, due to the combined effects of tropical northward wave trains and quasi-barotropic wave trains from the North Pacific. This cyclonic circulation not only induces a southward shift in the EAJ but also restricts the northward expansion of the WNPAC, favoring its zonal development. In P2, the weakening of convective activity in the MC, coupled with changes in basic flow, leads to the attenuation of WNPAC. Additionally, influenced by the North Atlantic transient wave activity and wave trains originating from North Pacific, there is a transition in the mid-high latitudes wave trains, resulting in the presence of an anomalous anticyclone over Northeast Asia. Which drives the EAJ northward and facilitates the northeastward development of WNPAC. These factors contribute to a significant intraseasonal northward shift of ARWC in 2021. Such underlying mechanisms were also verified by using the dry Linear Baroclinic Model.

The Important Role of Reduced Moisture Supplies from the Monsoon Region in the Formation of Spring and Summer Droughts over Northeast China

Abstract Anomalies in atmospheric moisture transport are critical for drought formation, with East Asian monsoon anomalies identified as the primary driver of droughts in East Asia. However, the drought mechanism for the border region between monsoon and nonmonsoon land areas remains unclear due to complex interactions between latitudinal circulation patterns. Using a Lagrangian framework, we quantify moisture supply (MS) during spring and summer drought events within the border region, specifically Northeast China (NEC). Our results reveal that decreased MS from monsoon land areas is more crucial than nonmonsoon land areas and local areas for NEC droughts, with the local water recycling playing a more substantial role in summer than in spring. On average, summer droughts are 4 times more intense than spring droughts. Contributions to MS deficits from monsoon land areas, nonmonsoon land areas, and local areas during spring (summer) droughts are 43.2% (43.8%), 25.1% (19.2%), and 22% (33.8%), respectively. The weakened atmospheric circulation from source regions to NEC contributes to over 80% of MS deficits during droughts. Atmospheric wave trains triggered by North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) gradients, along with the weakening of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet in spring and a positive phase of the polar–Eurasian teleconnection in summer, contribute to spring and summer droughts, respectively. A sustained, record-breaking positive SSTA along the western European coast from the spring to summer excited a wave train, and resulted in the extreme 2017 spring–summer drought. These findings provide valuable insights into the drought mechanism within the interaction zone of circulation systems from different latitudes. Significance Statement The complex interactions between atmospheric circulation patterns at different latitudes have led to an insufficient understanding of the mechanisms causing extreme drought in the border region between the monsoon and nonmonsoon land areas. This study aims to investigate the drought mechanisms in the border region from the perspective of moisture tracking. Results indicate a moisture supply deficit from the monsoon region contributes the most (approximately half) to droughts, although the majority of air parcels reaching this region originate from the nonmonsoon region. The weakening of circulation contributes to more than 80% of the moisture supply deficit during droughts, far exceeding the impact of reduced evaporation from the moisture source regions. These findings are conducive to understanding the mechanisms of extreme drought.

Inter-model spread in East Asian Summer Monsoon onset timing linked to the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans' mean state in CMIP6 models

A major challenge for Earth system climate models in simulating the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in projections. Based on 31 models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study investigated the inter-model spread of EASM onset biases and its physical connection with simulated atmospheric circulation and tropical Pacific mean state biases. The inter-model leading mode of EASM onset biases exhibits a meridional seesaw pattern, with inverse patterns for South China and the Yangtze–Yellow River basins. The leading mode is closely related to the simulated meridional displacement of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) and the Northwest Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC). The northward EASWJ and WNPAC respectively cause ascending or descending motions with moisture convergence or divergence in the Yangtze–Yellow River basins of South China. The leading mode can be attributed to simulated biases in the zonal tripole sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Statistical analysis and numerical experiments based on CAM5.0 indicate that the SST bias stimulates “double-loop” zonal vertical circulation in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, influencing convection precipitation in the tropical central–western Pacific. The altered convection then triggers a Pacific–Japan-like pattern anomaly, forming meridional seesaw circulation and precipitation anomalies in East Asia. Such meridional seesaw circulation modulates the meridional displacement of the EASWJ and WNPAC, thus affecting EASM onset. Our results provide potential indicators of inter-model uncertainty of EASM onset.

Rainy season onset date in Southwest China and the related atmospheric circulations

The rainy season onset date (RSOD) in the Southwest China (SWC) has important guiding significance for agricultural planting, and the abnormal RSOD is easy to cause drought or flood disasters in late spring and early summer. However, the RSOD in SWC and its related atmospheric circulation on daily scale and large regional scale has been less explored in the past literature. Therefore, this study aims to explore the circulation characteristics of RSOD on a daily scale in the whole SWC using the long-term observation and reanalysis datasets from 1961 to 2021. Results revealed that the RSOD in SWC advances from the east toward the west, with an average RSOD of May 27 and a standard deviation of 9.19 days. It is found that from around 10 days before the RSOD, the intensity of the India-Burma Trough and the Somali cross-equatorial jet stream were enhanced; the East Asian subtropical westerly jet begin to southward shift, which bring the upward movement, water vapor accumulation and the intersection of cold and warm air in southwest China, causing an earlier onset of rainy season in SWC. Moreover, May 5–25 are crucial to the early or late onset of the rainy season in SWC. When an anomalous zonal dipole of geopotential height in the upper level and an anomalous meridional dipole of geopotential height in the lower level occurred in May 5–25, the rainy season onset earlier. The atmospheric circulation changes approximately 10 days before the RSOD, and the anomalous circulation modes revealed in this study are of great importance for the prediction of RSOD in SWC.

The extreme heat wave in China in August 2022 related to extreme northward movement of the eastern center of SAH

This study reveals the causes of extreme high temperatures in China in August 2022 and the role of South Asian high (SAH) anomaly. The 2022 extreme heat events in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Yangtze River basin (YRB) are the strongest since 1979, accompanied by an anticyclonic anomaly in the northeastern part of the SAH. Six displacement indices of the SAH are defined by taking advantage of the stream function R of horizontal circulation in the three-pattern decomposition of the global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC) model, which can effectively remove the systematic errors in geopotential high caused by global warming. The results show an extreme northward shift of the eastern center of SAH occur in August 2022, with correlation coefficients 0.85 and 0.69 with the temperature anomaly indices of TP and YRB regions, respectively, for 1979–2022. In addition to the La Niña event, we find evidence that the soil moisture in the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) region from January to August 2022 is extremely wet, linked to significant impacts on the northward movement of the eastern center of SAH response to land-air interactions. Further, the 3P-DGAC model helps us to reveal that the extreme northward shift of the eastern center of SAH brings extensive circulation adjustments, in which the local meridional circulation anomaly intensifies the high temperature in the YRB, while the local zonal circulation in the middle latitudes is the main cause of the high temperature in the TP. Meanwhile, the northward shift of the eastern center of SAH pushes the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EAJ) northeastward, and the convergent downdraft to the right of EAJ exit also further aggravates the summer hot extremes in China in 2022.

Dynamic and thermodynamic causes of summer extreme precipitation over South China

The summer days between 1961 and 2017 are divided into two categories: extreme precipitation days (EPDs) and general precipitation days (GPDs). Compared to GPDs, on EPDs, South China (SC) is affected by a local trough in the lower troposphere and the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EAWJ) is strengthened in the upper troposphere. The anomalous extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the South China Sea (SCS) is a key of EPDs. The reason for the extension of WPSH is due to a Kelvin wave-induced Ekman divergence (WIED) response to the SST anomaly zonal contrast between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). The vertical velocity gradient ∂ω/∂p anomaly in accord with Sverdrup vorticity balance plays a secondary reinforcing role. Utilizing the quasi-geostrophic omega (QG ω) equation, the quantitative contributions of the dynamic term ωD and thermodynamic term ωQ are examined. On EPDs, the ωQ term over SC has the largest contribution to total ω, accounting for 46.2%, while the ωD term accounts for only 16.7%. The variation of ωQ is the main contributor to the variation of ω within different precipitation ranges, with time and with vertical levels. Water vapor plays a crucial role in adiabatic heating. The moisture budget analysis suggests that water vapor transport is significantly converted into precipitable water from 3 days before EPDs, increasing the humidity of the atmosphere and providing favorable conditions for adiabatic heating.

Orbital Effect on North Atlantic Freshwater Forced Millennial‐Scale East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability During the Holocene

AbstractUnderstanding millennial‐scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variability is critical for climate projection in East Asia in the context of slowing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) caused by global warming. This study performs two groups of sensitivity experiments at 8.2 and 4.2 ka BP, both forced by the same North Atlantic freshwater hosing and corresponding orbital parameters using the Community Earth System Model, to explore the orbital effect on millennial‐scale EASM variability. Our simulations reveal that EASM variability differs significantly between these two cold events. During the 8.2 ka BP (4.2 ka BP) (0 BP = 1950 AD) cold event, North Atlantic freshwater forcing weakens the EASM, generating a meridional tripole (dipole) pattern of EASM precipitation anomalies. Furthermore, the same freshwater discharge causes a greater decline in the EASM, contrasting to a slight weaker AMOC slowdown, at 4.2 ka BP than at 8.2 ka BP. This suggests orbital parameters significantly influence the EASM response to North Atlantic cold events. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet, whose meridional position and intensity are controlled by summer insolation on an orbital timescale, plays a key role in this orbital effect. The westerly jet's meridional position determines the spatial pattern of EASM precipitation anomalies, while its intensity affects the amplitude of the EASM's response to freshwater forcing. Because of a larger EASM decline due to freshwater hosing with lower summer insolation, we anticipate a profound declining EASM precipitation in the future with low summer insolation if the AMOC continues to weaken.

Stage-dependent influence of PDO on interdecadal summer precipitation anomalies in eastern China

Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) has been regarded as one of the most important interdecadal factors to the interdecadal summer precipitation in eastern China, which, however, cannot keep a consistent pattern during the same positive or negative PDO phase. Because sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies vary along with PDO evolvement, the PDO impacts are investigated in terms of developing and decaying stages of its positive and negative phases, respectively. It is found that the SST cooling in mid-latitude North Pacific and SST warming in off-equator central-eastern Pacific are generally intensified from the developing stage to the decaying stage for positive PDO phase, and vice versa. Particularly, during the decaying stage of positive (negative) PDO phase, the enhanced SST warming (cooling) in northeastern tropical Pacific triggers a stronger (weaker) large-scale Walker circulation and suppresses (enhances) the convective activities in western tropical Pacific, which favors a meridional wave train like East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia. Meanwhile, the westward extended SST cooling (warming) in mid-latitude North Pacific together with the SST warming (cooling) to its south significantly increases (decreases) the meridional SST gradient and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity, conductive to the strengthened (weakened) and southward (northward) shifted East Asian subtropical westerly jet as well as an equivalent barotropic “cold trough” in western North Pacific. Because of such tropical and extratropical dynamical processes, a meridional tripole pattern of precipitation anomalies occurs in eastern China which dominates the PDO impact in the same phase and distinctly different from the dipole pattern during the developing stage.

The Relationship between the Atmospheric Heat Source over Tibetan Plateau and the Westerly-Monsoon Evolution in August and Its Physical Mechanism

In this study, the relationship between the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) (westerly monsoon) and the correlation with the atmospheric heat source (AHS) on the Tibetan plateau (TP), especially the possible connection of the sudden enhancement of the correlation in August were analyzed. The results show that there is a significant correlation between the EASWJ and the EASM from June to October in terms of both intra-annual variability and interannual fluctuations, and the correlation between the AHS over TP and the EASWJ and the EASM during the same period is significantly enhanced in August. The synthetic analysis indicated that when the AHS was strong, a positive anomaly of a horizontal temperature gradient appeared over TP, which was conducive to the southward shift of the high-altitude temperature gradient center, resulting in the southward position of the axis of the 200 hPa westerly jet, and an upward and downward inclined westerly anomaly zone appeared from the south slope of TP to the main body and its north slope. Meanwhile, the East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern with a negative phase appeared at 500 hPa, and TP to western Japan was located in the negative value area of the wave train. The AHS was conducive to the enhancement of the EAP negative phase, which was not conducive to the further northward transportation of water vapor by the EASM. On the contrary, when the AHS on TP was weak, the position of the westerly jet was northward and the EAP positive phase enhanced, contributing to the further northward transport of water vapor from the EASM.

The role of SST forcing in the interdecadal variations of the Pacific‐Japan pattern in the late 1990s

AbstractThe Pacific‐Japan (PJ) pattern is the dominant teleconnection over East Asia, closely related to the summer precipitation on various time scales. However, studies on the connection between the interdecadal variations of the PJ pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are still limited. This study indicates that the relationship between the PJ pattern and ENSO presents a pronounced interdecadal change around 1997/1998. The PJ pattern shows a baroclinic structure over the northwest Pacific and a barotropic structure near Japan during 1979–1997, while its baroclinic structure in the tropics weakens remarkably during 1998–2021, with a southward shift of its midlatitude barotropic structure. As a result, the connection between the PJ pattern and summer precipitation over East Asia exhibits an interdecadal transition in the late 1990s. In the slow La Niña decaying summer of 1979–1997, the cold SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) excite an eastward‐propagating Kelvin wave that enhances convection over the northwest Pacific, resulting in the formation of the PJ pattern. In contrast, the cold SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent rather than the TIO yield a zonally confined Kelvin wave in the rapid La Niña decaying summer of 1998–2021. The elongated Kelvin wave penetrating the central Pacific weakens convective anomalies over the northwest Pacific, thereby weakening the baroclinic structure of the PJ pattern in the tropics. Meanwhile, the warm SST anomalies in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) induce a northward shift of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet, with the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the KE significantly affecting summer precipitation along the Meiyu belt. Therefore, the midlatitude barotropic structure of the PJ pattern shifts southward after the late 1990s.

Influence of Zonal Variation of the Subtropical Westerly Jet on Rainfall Patterns and Frequency of Heavy Precipitation Events over East Asia

Abstract Understanding the effects of zonal variation of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EAWJ) on spatial features of heavy precipitation events requires characterization of the shape, orientation, position, and scale of both the EAWJ and rain belts. Applying a rotating calipers algorithm, jet-axis tracking, wavelet analysis, and K-means clustering algorithm, spatial structures of both the EAWJ and rain belts were quantified for each heavy rainfall event lasting 3 days (3-day-HRE) in 1983–2020. The results reveal that approximately 90% of the EAWJs related to 3-day-HREs had a statistically significant wave structure of ∼6000–12 000 km over East Asia and the North Pacific. These EAWJs had tilted, wavy, and flat patterns and strongly affected the position, orientation, and spatial scales of the 3-day-HRE rain belts by modifying the vapor transport trajectory and vertical rising motions. All types of EAWJ had an orientation similar to that of the rain belts and an average distance to the rain belts of ∼500–1500 km at 105°–125°E and ∼500 km at 125°E–180°. Correspondingly, the rain belts of 3-day-HREs had the largest frequency over eastern China and southern Japan. Zonally asymmetric Rossby waves arising from the land–sea thermal contrast, atmospheric diabatic heating, and topography dominantly contributed to the formation of a meandering or flat EAWJ. A zonally oscillating trough–ridge system, featuring an equivalent barotropic structure with large geopotential height anomalies reaching the lower troposphere, weakens or blocks vapor transport and is ultimately responsible for the strongly varying spatial scales and orientations of rain belts. Significance Statement A solid theoretical basis that variations in the EAWJ intimately covary with the location and orientation of rain belts means that understanding the relationships between the EAWJ’s zonal variations and the spatial features of monsoonal rain belts is conducive to better predicting the weather and climate over East Asia. We quantitatively explored the effects of EAWJ zonal variations on the position, orientation, and scale of rain belts and found that a tilted, wavy, or relatively flat pattern of the EAWJ strongly affected the rain belt spatial features by modifying the vapor transport trajectory. A zonally oscillating trough–ridge system, featuring an equivalent barotropic structure throughout the troposphere, is responsible for the varying spatial scale of rain belts.

The influence of the wave trains on the intraseasonal variability of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet in early and late summer

The influence of the wave trains on the intraseasonal variability of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet in early and late summer

Northward migration of the East Asian summer monsoon northern boundary during the twenty-first century

The northern fringe area of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) between arid and semiarid regions is a fragile eco-environment zone and ecological transition zone, and it is highly sensitive to climate change. Predicting the future migration of the northern boundary of the EASM is important for understanding future East Asian climate change and formulating of decisions on ecological protection and economic development in arid and semiarid regions. The reanalysis dataset and simulations of 23 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to investigate the response of the boundary of the ESAM to the global warming. The multi-model ensemble showed a northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary during the near-term (2020–2060) and late-term (2061–2099) of the twenty-first century under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The northern boundary migrated northwestward by 23–28 and 74–76 km in the near-term and late-term respectively, under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 and by ~ 44 km and ~ 107 km respectively during the near-term and late-term under SSP5-8.5. During the twenty-first century, under various SSPs, the surface of the East Asian subcontinent warmed more than the ocean, thereby increasing the contrast of near-surface temperature and sea level pressure in summer between the East Asian subcontinent and the surrounding oceans. In turn, the intensified land–sea thermal contrast reinforced the EASM meridional circulation and thus transported more moisture from the Indian Ocean into northern China. Additionally, a poleward migration and weakening of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet would also favor an increase in precipitation, eventually caused a northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary. The results suggest that the arid and semiarid ecotone will become wetter, which could dramatically improve the eco-environment in the future.

Quantitative evaluations of subtropical westerly jet simulations over East Asia based on multiple CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs

As a salient feature of the Asian monsoon system, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) exerts significant impacts on weather and climate changes in China and even throughout East Asia. In this paper, we applied a new self-adaptive algorithm to detect the EASWJ, identify its boundaries, and then represent its characteristics by defining three indices: the intensity index, meridional displacement index, and width index. Compared to the reanalysis data, we carried out a comprehensive, objective, and quantitative EASWJ evaluation using historical experiments from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 can simulate the characteristics of winter EASWJ well. While for the other three seasons, the MME of both phase models underestimate the 200-hPa zonal wind (U200) strength in the jet coverage area and overestimate the U200 outside the jet area, such simulation results weaken the meridional shear of the wind field. The EASWJ simulations from the CMIP5 GCMs had no consistent intensity or location characteristic tendencies, and most CMIP5 GCMs tended to simulate relatively wide-coverage jets. In contrast, most CMIP6 GCMs are inclined to simulate significantly weaker, wider, and more-northward jets. Compared to the predecessors in CMIP5, about half of CMIP6 GCMs significantly minimized the jet intensity bias, but remarkable errors were still observed in their jet location and coverage representations. Furthermore, the comparative analysis performed by classifying models based on their evaluated simulation results suggested that the simulated performance of the meridional temperature gradient was important for capturing the EASWJ characteristics. Further in-depth study of the causes of model differences is warranted to improve simulation results.

The impacts of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet on weather extremes over China in early and late summer

Summer weather extremes (e.g., heavy rainfall, heat waves) in China have been linked to anomalies of summer monsoon circulations. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ), an important component of the summer monsoon circulations, was investigated to elucidate the dynamical linkages between its intraseasonal variations and local weather extremes. Based on EOF analysis, the dominant mode of the EASWJ in early summer is characterized by anomalous westerlies centered over North China and anomalous easterlies centered over the south of Japan. This mode is conducive to the occurrence of precipitation extremes over Central and North China and humid heat extremes over most areas of China except Northwest and Northeast China. The centers of the dominant mode of the EASWJ in late summer extend more to the west and north than in early summer, and induce anomalous weather extremes in the corresponding areas. The dominant mode of the EASWJ in late summer is characterized by anomalous westerlies centered over the south of Lake Baikal and anomalous easterlies centered over Central China, which is favorable for the occurrence of precipitation extremes over northern and southern China and humid heat extremes over most areas of China except parts of southern China and northern Xinjiang Province. The variability of the EASWJ can influence precipitation and humid heat extremes by driving anomalous vertical motion and water vapor transport over the corresponding areas in early and late summer.摘要东亚副热带西风急流是影响中国极端天气的重要原因之一, 然而之前的研究主要关注整个夏季急流的变率, 对其早夏和晚夏变率的区别及其对极端天气的影响关注较少. 本文研究了早夏和晚夏东亚副热带西风急流季节内变化特征的区别, 以及这种区别带来的极端天气的差异及其可能的动力学机制. 研究结果表明, 相比于早夏, 晚夏急流季节内变化中心位置偏西偏北, 通过改变垂直运动和水汽输送可以影响极端降水和湿热浪在相应区域的发生概率.

The Zonal Wind Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Exit Region of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet in Winter and Its Thermodynamic Mechanism

The six-hourly ERA-interim reanalysis data were used to analyze the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) characteristics of the zonal wind in the exit region of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EAJ) during the winter (November to April). The results indicate that from East Asia to the North Pacific, the zonal wind in the upper troposphere shows significant 10–40-day oscillations, propagating eastward toward the jet exit region. The strength of the intraseasonal zonal wind anomaly increases from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere, reaching a peak between 300 and 200 hPa. The zonal wind ISO in the jet exit area is closely related to the intraseasonal inverse temperature tendency between the north and south of the jet exit in the troposphere. In the acceleration (deceleration) phase of the intraseasonal west wind, the air temperature decreases (increases) in the north of the exit and increases (decreases) in the south of the exit. The intraseasonal temperature tendency is stronger in the north of the EAJ exit than that in the south. In the north of the EAJ exit, the intraseasonal temperature tendency is decided by the temperature advection, where the whole troposphere is controlled by the north wind in the west wind acceleration phase and controlled by the south wind in the west wind deceleration phase, so the intensity of temperature advection is strong. However, adiabatic heating plays a decisive role in affecting the temperature evolution in the south of the jet exit area, and the intraseasonal meridional wind is the opposite between the mid-upper troposphere and the lower troposphere, resulting in weak temperature advection and the weak temperature tendency. Therefore, although the zonal wind ISO in the jet exit area is the result of the joint action of the ISOs in different latitudes, the influence of mid-high latitudes is particularly important.

Effects of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet on winter persistent heavy pollution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

AbstractBased on the daily average concentration of PM2.5, 15 typical persistent heavy pollution episodes (PHPEs) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region during the winters of 2013–2019 are identified. And then the impact of the intra‐seasonal variations of the 200‐hPa subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) on the PHPEs is investigated. The results show that the SWJ affects the lifecycle of the PHPEs in the BTH region mainly through the meridional shift and intensity variation. In particular, the intensity variation has a closer relationship with the vertical velocity and low‐level meridional wind to affect the PHPEs. In the developing stage of the PHPEs, the SWJ shifts northward and strengthens. The BTH region is on the left side of the entrance of the SWJ and the vertical secondary circulation intensifies the descending motion in situ. As a result, the atmospheric boundary layer is compressed to sink rapidly, a temperature inversion in the lower levels appears and the atmospheric stability is enhanced. Finally, the atmospheric environment is favourable for the rapid accumulation of pollutants and the occurrence of the PHPEs. In the peak stage, the southward withdrawal and weakening of the SWJ favour the anomalous ascending motion and low‐level southerly anomalies over the BTH region. The dominant role of the dynamic descending motion is replaced by the low‐level southerly anomalies to enhance the PHPEs, by transporting more warm‐humid air to the BTH region. In the weakening stage, the SWJ moves northward and intensifies again. The low‐level southerly anomalies weaken to contribute to the dissipation of the pollutants.