East Asia Pacific Research Articles

Exploring Developmental Outcomes for Children Attending Community-based Pre-Schools in the Ermera and Viqueque Municipalities of Timor-Leste

ABSTRACT There is a substantial body of evidence which indicates that early childhood programmes have a positive effect on children's school readiness, academic achievement, and social and emotional development. Indeed, these benefits can last into adulthood. Based on this evidence base, many countries that strive to build their early childhood education offer to enhance later chances of prosperity. LINKS is an NIHR-funded study, carried out by a team from Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University, with support from UNICEF. The project aims to explore the impact of early childhood development programmes on social cohesion/peacebuilding in six conflict-affected low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); Timor-Leste, Viet Nam, Mali, Egypt, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This paper will focus on research carried out as part of the LINKS study in Timor-Leste which aimed to evaluate the impact of UNICEF community-based alternative pre-schools (CBAPs) in Timor-Leste. This research, carried out in 2020, employed a quasi-experimental pre- post-test design with a public pre-school control group. A total of 607 children were recruited to participate from 33 pre-schools: 508 completed post-tests after nine months of pre-school exposure to the CBAP programme. The East-Asia Pacific Early Childhood Development Scales (EAP-ECDS) were used to assess the development of children in the current study. Results of the post-test suggest that despite differences in time children spend in pre-school and infrastructure between the school types, attendance at CBAPs appears to close the developmental gap seen at the pre-test (baseline) between children in the two groups. The findings underline the importance of pre-school access and early learning experiences to the development of children at the highest risk of not reaching their developmental potential. The results point to the need to scale the intervention and to carry out an experimental effectiveness evaluation of this promising programme.

The significant influence of the sea surface temperature anomalies over North Atlantic and the Maritime Continent on maize yield in Northeast China

Northeastern China (NEC) is the largest grain base in China. Improving understanding of the effect of climate change on grain production over NEC is conducive to providing immediate response strategies for grain production. In this study, the relationships of the maize production with the dry state during the different maize growth stage have been investigated using the year-to-year increment method. Results showed that the severe drought that occurred from the jointing to maturity period have exerted severe effects on the maize growth. Further analysis indicated that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over North Atlantic and Maritime Continent in later spring are the important factors affecting the summer droughts over NEC. The late spring SST anomaly over North Atlantic can excite the Rossby waves from the western North Atlantic and propagate eastward to NEC. The snow anomaly over western Siberia in late spring and the soil moisture anomaly over NEC in summer are key factors linking the SST anomaly to drought over the NEC. On the other hand, the Maritime Continent SST anomaly in late spring can modulate the activity of the East Asian jet stream via the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection, which can provide the favorable conditions for the soil moisture reduction over NEC. Eventually, a predictive model for maize yield over NEC is successfully developed by using the predictive indices of the North Atlantic and the Maritime Continental SST during late spring. Both the cross-validation and independent sample tests show that the calibrated prediction model is robust and exhibits high skill in predicting maize yield over NEC.

The changing characteristics of torrential rainfall in the Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to 2020

Abstract The Huaihe River Basin (HRB) is one of the most severely affected regions by torrential rain disasters in China. However, with climate warming, it is unclear what new features torrential rain exhibits and how the main modes of torrential rain change in this region. This study analyzes the first two modes of torrential rain in the HRB from 1961 to 2020 and their driving factors. Results show that in the last 30 years, the frequency of torrential rain events in the HRB has clearly increased, especially in southern HRB region during the flood season. The first mode of torrential rain is an entire basin-wide mode, with a period of 2–3 years. The mode is primarily influenced by the low-level westerly jet stream and Jianghuai cyclones, which are closely linked to the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) through influencing planetary wave propagation and convective activity under different phases of QBO. The second mode is a north-south distribution mode, with a period of 4–6 years. The leading circulation system is the frontal systems. Both the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) teleconnection wave train and ENSO drive the second torrential rain mode. During El Niño years, anomalous subsidence and anticyclone in the western tropical Pacific, induced by sea surface temperature warming in the eastern tropical Pacific through the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection, can trigger the EAP wave train poleward in the East Asian region. This wave train leads to the cold-warm confrontation conducive to the second torrential rain mode.

Global, regional, and national burden of preterm birth, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021

Preterm birth and its complications are leading causes of mortality among children under five years of age. Given the increasing burden of preterm birth on neonatal mortality and long-term health outcomes worldwide, a comprehensive global analysis is essential to guide effective public health interventions and policies. This study aims to assess the burden of preterm birth at the global, regional, and national levels. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, this study analysed trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as primary outcomes for preterm birth from 1990 to 2021at global, regional, and national levels. Data were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, decomposition analysis, and the health inequality concentration index. Globally, the incidence, mortality and DALYs due to preterm birth have shown a declining trend, but ASIR started to increase in 2016. Males were more commonly born preterm than females (12329075.82, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 12192632.55-12464605.4 vs. 9224694.94, 95% UI: 9113876.1-9330107.89). Changes in DALYs were primarily due to epidemiological change (111.97%) and population (-21.59%). Low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions increased in annual incidence cases (43.1%, 95% UI: 40.17-46.09), while high SDI regions decreased in annual incidence cases (-9.6%, 95% UI:-11.45 to-7.79). The highest annual mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (295490.66, 95% UI: 241762.78-353624.41) and South Asia (32760273.93, 95% UI: 27295547.76-39070225.69). Western sub-Saharan Africa showed the largest increase in annual incidence (98.95%, 95% UI: 94.77 to 103.09), and Australasia had the lowest annual mortality (287.18, 95% UI: 244.26-339.42) and DALYs (61081.4, 95% UI: 50897.33-73069.96). Western sub-Saharan Africa also had the highest ASMR (21.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.9-25.89). The highest ASIR (543.78, 95% CI: 535.11-553.21) and age-standardized DALYs (2064.65, 95% CI: 1717.27-2473.36) both occurred in South Asia, while the lowest ASIR and age-standardized DALYs were seen in East Asia (147.31, 95% CI: 144.22-150.85) and High-income Asia Pacific (143.32, 95% CI: 117.9-167.25). India, Nigeria, and Pakistan ranked highest globally in terms of annual incidence cases, mortality, and DALYs, while the lowest annual incidence, mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in Tokelau (2.34, 95% UI: 2.12-2.56), San Marino (0.04, 95% UI: 0.02-0.07) and Tokelau (17.22, 95% UI: 11.11-24.95). While the global burden of preterm birth has decreased, significant disparities persist, especially in low SDI regions. There is a need for more refined policies and preventive measures to effectively address preterm birth. No funds, grants, or other support was received.

Distinct mechanisms controlling and influencing the supply of clay-sized sediments to the northern shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk since the Last Glacial Maximum

The Sea of Okhotsk is a transitional zone between East Asia and northwestern Pacific Ocean. As a result, its massive thick sediments contain numerous important records of geological past, such as the mechanisms of materials and energy exchanges. However, the scarcity of studies tracing the provenance of clay-sized sediments in the sea has limited the progress of reconstructing the paleoclimate of East Asia. In this study, clay mineral analysis was conducted on 31 surface stations and the LV87–54-1 core. These results were combined with grain-size to provide reliable evidence for distinct mechanisms controlling the influx of clay-sized sediments into the northern shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk since 23 ka. Results of provenance analyses suggested that clay-sized sediments in the northern shelf mainly originated from its northwestern shelf, the Okhotsk–Chukotka volcanic belt, and the Kamchatka Peninsula. Clay-sized sediments of the northern shelf was primarily transported from the northwestern shelf and the Okhotsk–Chukotka volcanic belt after 23 ka, while those analogues from the Kamchatka Peninsula increased after 11.7 ka. Based on variations in clay mineral ratios, sediments from the northwestern shelf were mainly transported by the North Okhotsk Countercurrent, wherein rapid millennial-scale variations were influenced by the high-latitude Arctic Oscillation (from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Last Deglaciation) and the low-latitude East Asian summer monsoon (including the Holocene), respectively. By contrast, the influx of clay-sized sediments from the western Kamchatka Peninsula might be mainly controlled by the intensity of the West Kamchatka Current. From the Last Glacial Maximum to the Last Deglaciation, north and northwest geostrophic winds dominated in winter, and the West Kamchatka Current shifted eastward. Since the Holocene, weakened north and northwest geostrophic winds, but strengthened east winds caused a series of rapid millennial-scale variations in the West Kamchatka Current.

Impact of May–June Antarctic Oscillation on July–August Heat-Drought Weather in Yangtze River Basin

Investigating the physical mechanism behind the formation of summer heat-drought weather (HDW) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) holds significant importance for predicting summer precipitation and temperature patterns in the region as well as disaster mitigation and prevention. This study focuses on spatiotemporal patterns of July–August (JA) HDW in the YRB from 1979 to 2022, which is linked partially to the preceding May–June (MJ) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Key findings are summarized as follows: (1) The MJ AAO displays a marked positive correlation with the JA HDW index (HDWI) in the southern part of upper YRB (UYRB), while showing a negative correlation in the area extending from the Han River to the western lower reaches of the YRB (LYRB); (2) The signal of MJ AAO persists into late JA through a specific pattern of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean (SOSST). This, in turn, modulates the atmospheric circulation over East Asia; (3) The SST anomalies in the South Atlantic initiate Rossby waves that cross the equator, splitting into two branches. One branch propagates from the Somali-Tropical Indian Ocean, maintaining a negative-phased East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern. This enhances the moisture flow from the Pacific towards the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MYRB-LYRB). The other branch propagates northward, crossing the Somali region, and induces a positive geopotential height anomaly over Urals-West Asia. This reduces the southwesterlies towards the UYRB, thereby contributing to HDW variabilities in the region. (4) Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) demonstrated predictive capability for JA HDW in the YRB for 2022, based on Southern Ocean SST.

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the South China late rainy season rainfall and equatorial Pacific SSTs

Abstract The South China (SC) late rainy season rainfall (SCLR) is important to people’s livelihoods and properties of this densely populated and economically developed region. Based on observation and reanalysis datasets, this study identifies that the relationship between the SCLR and equatorial Pacific SSTs (EPSSTs) experiences an interdecadal change around the late 1970s. The SCLR is negatively correlated with the eastern EPSSTs during 1948–1977 (the previous epoch) but positively correlated with the central EPSSTs during 1978–2022, especially during the last three decades 1993–2022 (the post epoch). This is due to the interdecadal change in El Niño flavors and EPSSTs-tropical Atlantic SSTs (TASSTs) relationship. With the increasing frequency of central Pacific El Niños in the post epoch, the El Niño-related warm SST anomaly center shifts from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to the central equatorial Pacific (CEP). Correspondingly, the anomalous cyclone exerted by the CEP warming reaches SC and causes rainfall surplus there (westward propagation pathway). In contrast, the EEP warming in the previous epoch can’t influence the SCLR through the westward propagation pathway, but through shifting the westerly jet southward via heating the tropical troposphere. The southward shifted westerly jet crashes the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, triggering cyclonic circulations across the northern East Asia and North Pacific, which in turn cause anticyclonic circulations over the western SC and reduce SC rainfall (eastward propagation pathway). On the other hand, the CEP warming in the post epoch barely influence the SCLR through the eastward propagation pathway because of the enhanced negative relationship between EPSSTs and TASSTs.

Exploring Mental Health Services for Youth Experiencing Homelessness in East Asian Pacific Regions: A Systematic Scoping Review.

Youth experiencing homelessness (YEH) in East Asian Pacific (EAP) regions represent one of the most at-risk populations due to cultural and geographical factors. Effective mental health interventions, primarily researched in Western contexts, may not fully apply to YEH in EAP. Their lack of stable shelter, disrupted social networks, and limited access to mental health services elevate their susceptibility to adverse mental health, making urgent interventions essential to address their needs. The objective of this study is to explore and systematically search the types of mental health services and interventions available for YEH in EAP and their impact on overall quality of life and wellbeing. Electronic databases (e.g., Medline, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus) were systematically searched (publication dates between 1 January 1990 and 13 May 2023), as well as additional online resources specific to homelessness. Articles were screened, and a critical appraisal assessed the quality of the included studies. Eight studies with different interventions were identified in Indonesia (n = 2), Malaysia (n = 1), South Korea (n = 3), and the Philippines (n = 1). These were thematically clustered into six categories: art, cognitive behavioural therapy, life skills education, resilience enhancement, family strengthening, and government interventions/services. This review highlights effective mental health interventions' positive impact on YEH mental health outcomes and quality of life in EAP, stressing the urgent need to implement socio-culturally sensitive services. Future research should address knowledge gaps through comprehensive studies covering diverse EAP regions and populations, prioritising socio-culturally specific psychological measures.

The Periodic Cyclonic Eddy in Southwestern Taiwan and Its Interannual Variation Related to Large‐Scale Climate Variations

AbstractPeriodic eddies are a type of eddy that occur almost annually in fixed timeframes with similar patterns and trajectories. Nearly every year from April to June, under the combined effect of the barotropic instability of the mean flow and wind work, a cyclonic eddy (the Taiwan Cyclonic Eddy, TCE) forms in the southwest of Taiwan, then propagates westward, and finally dissipates near the Dongsha Islands. TCE exerts a significant impact on the Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea (SCS) and water exchange. Based on multi‐year in situ and satellite observations, this study reveals the thermohaline structure and evolutionary process of the TCE. The evolutions of the three‐dimensional structures of temperature, salinity, and geostrophic velocity of the TCE are analyzed based on reconstructed data. The TCE shows important interannual variations associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the relationship between ENSO and the TCE is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In the negative phase of the PDO, the intensity of the TCE is significantly correlated with the Niño‐3.4 index. In contrast, in the positive phase, the ENSO–TCE relationship becomes weak and non‐significant. Further investigations indicate that these differences are related to the establishment of the low‐latitude Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection, influencing local wind stress curl in the region. This offers a new perspective on understanding the interannual variation of periodic mesoscale eddies in the SCS.

Unlocking sustainable development in East Asia Pacific and South Asia: An econometric exploration of ESG initiatives

Unlocking sustainable development in East Asia Pacific and South Asia: An econometric exploration of ESG initiatives

Source and fate of atmospheric iron supplied to the subarctic North Pacific traced by stable iron isotope ratios

The availability of dissolved iron (Fe) limits primary production over some regions of the surface ocean, especially in regions such as the subarctic North Pacific. In this work, we use Fe stable isotope ratios (δ56Fe) in bulk and size-fractionated marine aerosol particles and dissolved Fe of surface seawater in the subarctic North Pacific on Japanese GEOTRACES cruise GP02 (Summer 2017) as a tracer to clarify the relative contribution of combustion and natural Fe in both marine aerosol particles and surface seawater. The bulk aerosols collected in the coastal regions of both East Asia and western North Pacific have total δ56Fe values that are as low as −0.5 ‰ when compared to crustal (+0.1 ‰), with both the water-soluble phase and the fine particles even more fractionated (as low as −1.9 and −2.8 ‰, respectively). The negative correlation between the aerosol δ56Fe signatures and the enrichment factors of Fe and other elements dominated by anthropogenic sources (e.g., lead and cadmium) in these coastal regions indicates the presence of Fe emitted from high-temperature combustion sources, such as coal combustion and metal smelting. In these regions, combustion Fe accounts for 4–13 and 13–45 % of the total and water-soluble aerosol Fe, respectively. The results demonstrate that soluble aerosol Fe sourced from combustion Fe can be equivalent to that sourced from natural dust Fe in these coastal regions. By contrast, the aerosol particles in pelagic regions were near crustal δ56Fe in all particle size fractions, indicating the dominance of natural Fe and little to no combustion Fe. The relationships among the fractional Fe solubility, major ion concentration, Fe species, and δ56Fe indicate that the presence of combustion Fe is the dominant reason for the solubility increase in the coastal regions and that the atmospheric processing of mineral dust during transport is more important in the pelagic regions. The dissolved Fe of the surface seawater at 10 m depth had a consistently higher δ56Fe by up to +1.5 ‰ than that of the simultaneously collected water-soluble aerosol Fe. The pattern of the elevated δ56Fe in the surface seawater corresponds to decreasing Fe concentrations and can be approximated by Rayleigh fractionation; we attribute these elevated surface δ56Fe values to the effect of biological uptake. New Fe fluxes from both the atmosphere and deeper depths are limited at least in summer compared with the biological uptake in the open ocean of the subarctic North Pacific.

Changing epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease in children and adolescents

BackgroundThe incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising worldwide, but epidemiological data on children and adolescents are lacking. Understanding the global burden of IBD among children and adolescents is essential for global standardization of methodology and treatment options.MethodsThis is a cross-sectional study based on aggregated data. We estimated the prevalence and incidence of IBD in children and adolescents between 1990 and 2019 according to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to compare the burden and trends between different regions and countries.ResultsIn 2019, there were 25,659 new cases and 88,829 prevalent cases of IBD among children and adolescents globally, representing an increase of 22.8% and 18.5%, respectively, compared to 1990. Over the past 30 years, the incidence and prevalence of IBD among children and adolescents have been highest in high SDI regions, with the most significant increases in East Asia and high-income Asia Pacific. At the age level, incidence and prevalence were significantly higher in the 15–19-year-old age group, while the < 5-year-old group showed the most significant increase in incidence and prevalence.ConclusionThe incidence of IBD in children and adolescents is significantly on the rise in some countries and regions, and IBD will remain an important public health issue with extensive healthcare and economic costs in the future. The reported IBD burden in children and adolescents at the global, regional, and national levels will assist in the development of more precise health policies.

Digital finance: a developing country perspective with special focus on gender and regional disparity

PurposeEven if digital financial services have a positive impact on financial inclusion, it creates a digital as well as gender divide within and across countries, creating regional disparity even within developing nations. Though pandemic has initiated digitalization of various services, there has been scanty research on whether digital transfer of income can improve digital financial inclusion in post-pandemic era, especially in developing countries. The purpose of the current study is to explain the regional disparity within developing countries from three regions East Asia Pacific, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, using latest World Findex data, 2021.Design/methodology/approachThe author takes an instrumental variable approach to run bivariate probit model to find the factors that motivate the users to make digital payments.FindingsThe study observes that electronic transfer of wages, government transfers and remittances can motivate individuals to make use of digital mode of transactions and mobile. The practice of formal saving and borrowings are the prerequisites. However, this mechanism holds good for East Asia Pacific and not for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, which are poor in information and communication technology infrastructure. Women are lagging behind men, but digital transfer of wages motivate them to make digital transaction.Practical implicationsDigitalization of all government services and provision of affordable mobile network and internet services are necessary for regions like South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. In East Asia Pacific region, data protection, data governance and better regulatory framework are required. Higher female labor force participation with digital transfer of wages and empowerment with smartphones are key to reducing the Gender gap.Originality/valueThe current study corrects for the possible endogeneity issue, which the extant literature has not paid attention to, and provides region-specific and gender-specific policy recommendations for an improved digital inclusion.

Tree-Ring Inferred Drought Variations in the Source Region of the Yangtze, Yellow, and Mekong Rivers over the Past Five Centuries

The climate in the source region of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Mekong River is of great research interest because of its sensitivity to global change and its importance in regulating water resources to densely populated and vast areas downstream. A five-century long record of spring (May–June) for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was reconstructed for this region using tree-ring width chronologies of Qilian juniper (Juniperus przewalskii Kom.) from five high-elevation sites. The reconstruction explained 46% variance in the PDSI during the instrumental period 1955–2005. The reconstructed PDSI showed that the occurrence of dry extremes became frequent during the last century relative to the previous four centuries. The standard deviation of the reconstructed PDSI in the 100-year window showed that the recent century held apparent high values of standard deviation in the long-term context. Sustained droughts occurred in periods 1582–1631, 1737–1757, 1772–1791, 1869–1891, 1916–1939, and 1952–1982, whereas relatively wet intervals were observed in 1505–1527, 1543–1564, 1712–1736, 1792–1816, 1852–1868, 1892–1915, and 1983–2008. Notably, in the context of the past five centuries, the study region showed an increased inter-annual variability in the recent century, suggesting an intensified hydroclimatic activity possibly associated with global warming. Moreover, through diagnostic analysis of atmospheric circulation, we found that the negative phase East Asian–Pacific teleconnection pattern may be likely to trigger drought in the study region.

Introduction to the NJIAS Himawari-8/9 Cloud Feature Dataset for climate and typhoon research

Abstract. The use of remote sensing methods to accurately measure cloud properties and their spatiotemporal changes has been widely welcomed in many fields of atmospheric research. The Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences (NJIAS) Himawari-8/9 Cloud Feature Dataset (HCFD) provides a comprehensive description of cloud features over the East Asia and west North Pacific regions for the 7-year period from April 2016 to December 2022. Multiple cloud variables, such as cloud mask, phase/type, top height, optical thickness, and particle effective radius, as well as snow, dust, and haze masks, were generated from the visible and infrared measurements of the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on board the Japanese geostationary satellites Himawari-8 and Himawari-9 using a series of recently developed cloud retrieval algorithms. Verifications with the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) 1 km cloud layer product and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Level-2 cloud product (MYD06) demonstrate that the NJIAS HCFD gives higher skill scores than the Japanese Himawari-8/9 operational cloud product for all cloud variables except for cloud particle effective radius. The NJIAS HCFD even outperforms the MYD06 in nighttime cloud detection; cloud-top height, pressure, and temperature estimation; and infrared-only cloud-top phase determination. All evaluations are performed at the nominal 2 km scale, not including the effects of sub-pixel cloudiness or very thin cirrus. Two examples are presented to demonstrate applications of the NJIAS HCFD for climate and typhoon research. The NJIAS HCFD has been published in the Science Data Bank (https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.09950, Zhuge 2023a; https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.09953, Zhuge 2023b; https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.09954, Zhuge 2023c; https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.10158, Zhuge 2023d; https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.09945, Zhuge 2023e).

Impact of Extratropical Circulation in East Asia on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Intensity

Abstract This study examines the East Asia and western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon circulation patterns for strong and weak WNP tropical cyclone (TC) numbers in summer. It suggested that years with more intense TCs are coupled with the tropical monsoon circulations, including the northward cross-equatorial airflow and the extending tropical monsoon trough toward the central-eastern WNP. However, a higher frequency of weak TCs can be largely attributed to the mutual interactions among the tropical monsoon trough west of 140°E, the westward South Asia high, and the high pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia (NEA). Then the potential influence of the NEA extratropical system is focused on. The resultant local negative potential vorticity (PV) anomaly is carried southeastward by the prevailing flow. It stimulates a descending flow around 30°N, which favors the westward retreat of the South Asian high and the decreased zonal vertical wind shear around 20°N. The associated lower-level outflow converges in the tropical WNP and reinforces the ascending motion around 10°–20°N. Meanwhile, the warm air column in NEA also contributes to anomalous easterlies in a band around 30°N, intensifying the lower-level cyclonic vorticity in the northwestern WNP. Consequently, the ascending motion, cyclonic vorticity, and the weakened zonal vertical wind shear in northwestern WNP promote the WTC formation. A set of physically based empirical models is developed using various physically based predictors to reconstruct the number of intense and weak TCs. Cross-validated hindcasts suggest that the NEA extratropical circulation can serve as an additional source of predictability for the weak TC variability. Significance Statement Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a highly destructive type of natural disaster that have garnered widespread attention. By comparison with intense TCs (ITCs), weak TCs (WTCs) are much more numerous and often form closer to the coastal regions of East Asia, whose mechanism has not been fully understood. In this study, we suggest that more ITCs are controlled by tropical monsoon circulations, while the WTC variability is closely coupled with both tropical and extratropical monsoon systems. In addition to the tropical monsoon trough west of 140°E and the westward South Asian high, the Northeast Asian circulation can regulate the WTC number by changing the lower-level vorticity, vertical motion, and vertical wind shear in the WTC genesis-prone region, which can be applied to improve the seasonal prediction skill of WTCs.

Is economic growth in East Asia pacific and South Asia ESG factors based and aligned growth?

AbstractAsia–Pacific countries are experiencing rapid economic growth. Is this growth ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors‐based and aligned growth? Therefore, this study investigates the connections between ESG indicators and economic growth in East Asia Pacific and South Asia. To achieve this aim, we employed the FMOLS, DOLS, and AMG models. While the AMG model highlights significant long‐term positive effects of the environmental (EFs) and governance factors (GOVNF) on economic growth, the FMOLS and DOLS models emphasize the substantial influence of social factors (SOC) on economic growth. These findings underscore the multifaceted nature of ESG factors and offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to align strategies with the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Notably, the GOVNF, with components like control of corruption, regulatory quality, rule of law, and government effectiveness, does not influence the GDP of developed nations, such as Japan, New Zealand, and Australia. However, its significance is evident in countries like Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. This result might stem from the possibility that developed countries have historically addressed and resolved issues like corruption and the rule of law, while these elements remain crucial determinants for the economic growth of developing nations like Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. Empirical findings provide the region's policymakers with essential insights and a guide for implementing their economic growth policies ESG factor‐based and aligned to the United Nations' SDGs. These targets will make the economic growth of the region's countries sustainable.

Circulation patterns in the middle and upper troposphere and their relationships with summer precipitation in the Jianghuai River Basin

AbstractThe upper and lower‐level circulations can be divided into four distinct modes based on ERA5 daily reanalysis data. The impact of these patterns on the summer persistent precipitation (SPP) in the Jianghuai River Basin (JRB) is investigated, with the ‘−SR (Silk Road)/+EAP (East Asia‐Pacific)’ mode identified as the most favourable for triggering SPP. The main manifestations are as follows: (1) From 1981 to 2020, 29.4% (30.7%) of extreme precipitation days (the frequencies of persistent extreme precipitation) are related to the ‘−SR/+EAP’ mode, indicating the importance of the ‘−SR/+EAP’ mode to the SPP in the JRB. (2) The ‘−SR’ pattern accelerates the westerly jet, leading to strong divergence over the JRB. Concurrently, the eastward movement of the South Asia High and westward shift of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) create conditions favourable for SPP in the JRB. (3) Abundant water vapour, facilitated by strong moisture convergence and upward motion, significantly contributes to SPP in the JRB.

Recent Opposite Trends of Atmospheric Rivers Over East Asia and Western North Pacific Driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) in East Asia have garnered increasing attention for their crucial roles in understanding extreme precipitation events and regional hydrological cycles. Here, we investigate the summer AR frequency over the East Asia‐western North Pacific region (EA‐WNP) during 1959–2022. Interestingly, the results show that the AR frequency over the two regions experienced opposite variations, with the boundary between them at around 135°–140°E. On interdecadal timescales, such variations are mainly synchronized with a zonal dipole pattern characterized by cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies centered to the northwest of Taiwan and anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies centered to the southeast of Japan. This interdecadal dipole pattern is induced by interdecadal changes in the western North Pacific subtropical high under different Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases. Particularly, the internal variability accounts for about 77–90% of the observed trends in high response areas. The displacements of ARs are also consistent with the opposite trends of precipitation over EA‐WNP. ARs exert a dominant influence on the precipitation trend in the WNP region but a weaker contribution to the precipitation trend in the EA region, which reflects the different impacts of ARs on EA and WNP precipitation. These results indicate that the PDO has the potential for predicting EA‐WNP ARs on interdecadal timescales, and the opposite AR trends are crucial in understanding the complexity of precipitation over the EA‐WNP region.

Decisive role of atmospheric circulation in the troposphere on ozone pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Using ozone observations and the ERA5 reanalysis, general circulation conditions between high and low ozone periods in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in June are compared. The atmospheric circulation pattern is contrastingly different in midlatitudes between high and low ozone concentration periods. During high ozone periods in the BTH region, the East Asia–Pacific jet center shifts further eastward in the upper troposphere. Additionally, positive geopotential height anomalies develop at 500 hPa over the BTH region, accompanied by anomalously warm near surface conditions. In contrast, during low ozone periods in BTH, a similar circulation pattern is observed but with the sign reversed. During high (low) ozone periods, the temperature in the lower troposphere usually rises (reduces), solar ultraviolet radiation increases (decreases), and cloud cover, precipitation, and humidity decreases (increases). Moreover, during high (low) ozone periods in BTH, warm (cold) anomalies develop in the low troposphere, extending from the surface upward. This meteorological condition is (not) conducive to photochemical reactions in the near surface layer. The tropopause over the BTH region is anomalously higher (lower) during high (low) ozone periods, and the upper tropospheric ozone is ∼20% less (∼17.5% higher) than the average. Ozone from the upper levels might not consistently contribute to an increase (decrease) in the near surface ozone concentration in BTH, while negative (positive) ozone concentration anomalies prevail in upper levels. Existing evidence suggests that the frontal zone in the troposphere offsets the dynamic contribution of stratospheric transport to changes in ozone content in BTH.