Earth Model Research Articles

Assessing climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of Castanea sativa Mill. using ecological niche modeling

In recent decades, ecological niche modeling (ENM) has become integral for assessing climate change impacts on species distributions. In this study we conducted a comprehensive ENM using the Kuenm R package, employing MaxEnt as the modeling algorithm, to evaluate the impact of climate change on the habitat of Castanea sativa Mill., a non-wood forest species of high commercial interest in Turkiye, within the limits of the Trabzon Regional Directorate of Forestry (RDF). Predictors related to the species' ecology were carefully selected. The Future distributions of C. sativa for 2061–2080 under Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1-2.6, 2-4.5, and 5-8.5 were modeled using predictions from the Hadley Centre Global Earth Model HadGEM-GC31-LL. Extensive calibration modeling with Kuenm resulted in 434 models, and the most robust model, determined by statistical significance, predictive power, and complexity, revealed a drastic reduction in suitable areas for C. sativa (ranging from 86% to 99% across SSPs). The critical values of bio1 and bio5 were identified as primary factors. Predictions suggest potential migration of C. sativa to higher latitudes or elevations seeking more favorable climatic conditions. The substantial reduction in habitat suitability, even under SSP1-2.6, poses a significant threat, emphasizing the need for urgent measures to mitigate climate change impacts and ensure the species' survival and continuity.

Exploring groundwater resources in southwestern Nigeria: An integrated geophysical approach

Groundwater potential regions were delineated using Very-Low Frequency Electromagnetic (VLF-EM) and Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) geophysical techniques. The VLF-EM measurements were taken as fast reconnaissance to delineate shallow conductive features along seven traverses with 10 m station intervals. The data were qualitatively analyzed and indicated zones of hydrogeological relevance, pointing to regions for VES investigations. Thirteen VESs were mapped with 100 m intervals between current electrodes, and the data were processed manually and using WinResist software to generate sounding curves and geo-electric sections that revealed 3 (84.6%) and 4 (15.4%) layers of earth models. The aquifer units were found in the weathered and fractured layers. The subsurface was classified into high, medium, and low groundwater potential regions, with a larger area indicating low prospects. Regions with high potentials had overburden thicknesses above 18 m, while medium and low yields had overburden thicknesses of 13–18 m and below 13 m, respectively.

Coupled poroelastic and gravitational deformation of a layered spherical Earth – I: load Love numbers

SUMMARY In this paper, we propose a fully coupled two-phase poroelastic deformation theory for a spherically layered and self-gravitating Earth. The earth model consists of a solid inner core, a fluid outer core and poroelastic mantle and crust. The boundary-value problems are posed in the Laplace-transformed domain using the spherical system of vector functions, and analytical solutions are obtained in each layer using the dual-variable and position matrix method. As an application, the surface loading problem is considered. The undrained and drained limits are discussed with the corresponding governing equations, which are different from the conventional ones where body force is ignored. Numerical examples show that the poroelastic effect can be significant since the difference between the results for undrained and drained limits are large with obvious time-dependent deformation. This newly derived theory for the coupled boundary-value problem will have broad applications, such as displacement and gravity change due to groundwater depletion, poroelastic rebound after an earthquake and risk evaluation of earthquakes induced by water injection.

Delineation of geological structures of Arta geothermal prospect in Djibouti based on the gravity data analysis and interpretation

The Arta geothermal prospect is located in the southern part of the Gulf of Tadjoura, 45 km west of Djibouti city. This study uses 398 gravity data stations collected by the Djiboutian Office for Geothermal Energy Development (ODDEG) from February to May 2018. The geothermal activity of the Arta area is revealed by surface thermal manifestations, such as near-boiling fumaroles (98 °C). This study aims to delineate the subsurface geological structures responsible for surface geothermal manifestations and define the depth and geometry of the geothermal reservoir in the study area. A Complete Bouguer anomaly was obtained using a Bouguer density of 2.55 g/cm3, derived as an average density from the F-H, G-H and CVUR methods. A regional and residual anomaly trend separation method was applied to focus on the structures of interest in the study area, and a residual Bouguer anomaly map was obtained. Edge detection filters, including Horizontal Derivatives (HD) and an Improved Normalized Horizontal tilt angle (INH), were used to examine the gravity data for edge identification. The density was then modelled in three-dimensional (3-D), utilizing the VOXI Earth Modeling Tool performed in Geosoft Oasis Montaj. The model was constrained using estimated lower (-0.35 g/cm3) and upper (0.65 g/cm3) bound density values from the expected density values of the local geology. The Bouguer and residual anomaly maps show a high-density body in the central part, surrounded by low-anomaly structures. The high-density body is interpreted as an intrusive body covering the basement of the study area. The anomalies imaged from HD and INH indicate a significant number of high gradient anomalies trending N-S, NE-SW, and NW-SE, corresponding to the trend of the geological structures of the Arta geothermal prospect. These high-gradient anomalies can be interpreted as faults, contact zones, or geological boundaries. The 3-D model imaged a high-density anomaly trending N-S in the central part at 2 and 3 km below sea level with a volume of about 126 km3 and an average block density of 2.66 g/cm3, interpreted as magma intrusion or intrusive volcanic rocks. The 3-D vertical cross-sections revealed that the intrusion is visible at depth and that some intrusions could be seen at the surface and near surface. The findings of this gravity study will contribute to the overall and future geothermal exploration and development of the Arta geothermal prospect.

Fractured reservoirs: An extensive geomechanical integrity approach

There is no more challenging task for today oil and gas production companies than simulating the production behavior of naturally fractured reservoirs fields. These reservoirs are highly prosperous at their early stage of production, only to decline afterward. Previous behavior has risen awareness of the geomechanics role in controlling deliverability of those reservoirs. Hasdrubal is a naturally fractured reservoir field located in offshore Tunisia. Recently, the field has manifested serious integrity and water coning issues. An integrity study was necessary to accurately determine the ever-changing stress settings and properly assimilate their impact on the production trend. Thus, former geomechanical investigations of the field were revisited to acquire a strong understanding of the reservoir and so develop an appropriate Mechanical Earth Models that assimilate the current stresses state and mechanical properties. The rock-mechanical characteristics was subsequently up-scaled to an Intact Three-Dimensional Geomechanical Model that incorporates the geomechanical properties along with the faults network. The homogenization concept was then adopted to generate the homogenized rock properties that were then populated over the latest model in order to establish the Three-Dimensional Homogenized Geomechanical Model (3D-HGM). The 3D-HGM was deployed to investigate the invasive impact of the fractures on field deliverability and ultimately generate a reactivation potential map of the faults at current and future conditions, which showed again the reactivation of most of faults intercepted by the well notably the ones responsible of water production. A justification that the former investigation studies were not in position to offer it as they were grounded only on the 1D modelling approaches (i.e. intact model). Previous observation was confirmed through the built of a two dimensional finite model for the problematic well A1ST thus allowing us to compute displacement of the fault's walls and accordingly interpret the new values of permeability associated to the different faults of the field. The up-to-date permeabilities were introduced to the dynamic reservoir model hence to estimate production trend of the A1ST1 well. A fair matching with field production data was achieved, proving again the reliability of the integral approach developed in this study in modelling the Hasdrubal field with high accuracy.

Advancing digital earth modeling: Hexagonal multi-structural elements in icosahedral DGGS for enhanced geospatial data processing

Discrete Global Grid Systems (DGGSs) employ uniform cells for hierarchical Earth surface representation. However, prevalent software systems stemming from DGGS only focus on grid centers and lack the modeling of vertices and edges, which hindering efficient geospatial data computation and analysis. Consequently, we propose a novel mathematical model for hexagonal centers, vertices and edges of an icosahedral DGGS and provide corresponding hierarchical indexing methods and conversion rules with respect to integer coordinates. The proposed method was incorporated into the open-source software DGGRID, thereby enhancing its capabilities by integrating data fusion into the computation framework and expanding its application scope. The results show that the introduction of multi-structural elements could lead to higher-precision modeling of raster and vector data.

Artificial Neural Network-Based Computational Algorithm of Inverse Sumudu Transform Applied to Surface Transient Electromagnetic Sounding Method

Abstract ––The paper discusses the results of the development of a deep learning-based algorithm of the inverse Sumudu transform applied to the problem of on-ground non-stationary electromagnetic sounding. The Sumudu transform has potential for solving forward geoelectric problems in three-dimensional earth models because, unlike using the Laplace or Fourier transform, the Sumudu image of a real function is also a real function. Thus, there is no need to use complex numbers in subsequent calculations, which reduces computational costs and memory requirements in case of successful determination of the Sumudu image of the function. The disadvantages of the approach include the absence of an explicit method for calculating the inverse transform. The inversion can be done by solving the corresponding Fredholm integral equation of the first kind, but this is a poorly conditioned task leading to high requirements for the accuracy of the Sumudu image. The use of modern machine learning techniques can provide a method that is more robust to noise in the input data. This paper describes the process of creating a training dataset and developing a neural network algorithm; we evaluate the accuracy and performance of the obtained solution. The proposed method can contribute to the development of new approaches to physical processes modeling as well as to analysis, processing and interpretation of measured geophysical data.

Movement of Water on The Soil: Teaching by the Use of Physical Models

Dams, embankments, roads, and other structures are subject to stress changes due to pore pressure, which can lead to instability and even failure. Considering the need to understand the processes that act on these structures and the difficulty often encountered by students in visualizing the action of water and its movement in the soil, this paper aims to present the practical activities developed in the Soil Mechanics Department of the Civil Engineering Course of the State University of Minas Gerais - João Monlevade, Brazil, which dealt with the movement of water in soil structures and discussed the design and stability aspects of these. One of objectives was to develop the student's protagonism through direct involvement in the design and execution of the physical model of earth and tailing dams. This topic is crucial for geotechnical engineering and even more so for the region where João Monlevade is located, as several iron mining companies use tailings dams and earth structures. The execution of the model by the students was preceded by theoretical discussions on aspects such as the Darcy´s law, hydraulic head, the types and characterization of soil and tailings, pore pressure and your influence of the safety factor. These activities were developed in 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023. As a result, a learning gain was achieved because the models were developed on a small scale by the students, who personally checked the variation of the parameters of the materials and water in the experiments.

Efficient 3D Frequency Semi-Airborne Electromagnetic Modeling Based on Domain Decomposition

Landslides are common geological hazards that often result in significant casualties and economic losses. Due to their occurrence in complex terrain areas, conventional geophysical techniques face challenges in early detection and warning of landslides. Semi-airborne electromagnetic (SAEM) technology, utilizing unmanned aerial platforms for rapid unmanned remote sensing, can overcome the influence of complex terrain and serve as an effective approach for landslide detection and monitoring. In response to the low computational efficiency of conventional semi-airborne EM 3D forward modeling, this study proposes an efficient forward modeling method. To handle arbitrarily complex topography and geologic structures, the unstructured tetrahedron mesh is adopted to discretize the earth. Based on the vector finite element formula, the Dual–Primal Finite Element Tearing and Interconnecting (FETI-DP) method is further applied to enhance modeling efficiency. It obtains a reduced order subsystem and avoids directly solving huge overall linear equations by converting the entirety problem into the interface problem. We check our algorithm by comparing it with 1D semi-analytical solutions and the conventional finite element method. The numerical experiments reveal that the FETI-DP method utilities less memory and exhibits higher computation efficiency than the conventional methods. Additionally, we compare the electromagnetic responses with the topography model and flat earth model. The comparison results indicate that the effect of topography cannot be ignored. Further, we analyze the characteristic of electromagnetic responses when the thickness of the aquifer changes in a landslide area. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the 3D SAEM method for landslide detection and monitoring.

Anomalous Propagation and the Sinking of the Russian Warship Moskva

Abstract On 13 April 2022, the Russian warship Moskva was hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles in the Black Sea, leading to its demise. Before launching an anti-ship missile, a target must first be detected and positioned, for example, by an accompanying radar system. However, when the missiles hit the Moskva she was well beyond the normal radar horizon of any ground-based radar system, making the ship undetectable under normal circumstances. Using meteorological reanalysis data, we show that at the time of the missile launch the prevailing weather conditions allowed a ground-based radar to detect targets far beyond the normal radar horizon through anomalous propagation conditions. During such conditions, the atmospheric index of refraction decreases rapidly with height, making electromagnetic radiation bend downward to, partly or fully, compensate the curvature of the Earth. The results show that atmospheric conditions must be considered carefully, even during warfare, as their impact on radar wave propagation can be considerable.

Lightning Response Transient Characteristics of Substation Grounding Grid in Multilayer Horizontal Stratified Earth Model Considering Soil Ionization Effect

This article proposes a new time-domain partial element equivalent circuit method mathematical model. The mutual impedance matrix between the potential on the discrete node and the leakage current on the conductor connected around the discrete node is adopted. To reduce the amount of calculation, the matrix equation that minimizes the unknown quantity is derived and adopted. The model can accurately calculate the lightning current distribution and lightning impulse response in a horizontal multilayered soil model considering the soil ionization effect. To improve computational efficiency, the quasi-static complex image method and its closed form of Green's function in the time domain are introduced into the model.

Magnetotelluric Forward Modeling in Spherical Coordinate System Under Non-planar Wave Field Source

In the traditional magnetotelluric forward modeling, the spherical earth model is typically stretched into the rectangular coordinate system using geographical projection, inevitably producing modeling errors especially for cases with large-scale data coverage. In these cases, the earth can not be considered as be flat, and the external source is not laterally uniform. In this paper, we developed a MT modeling algorithm in the spherical coordinate system based on the use of the spherical harmonic function P10 for the source. A model with public solutions is used to verify our algorithm. A more realistic model is designed to show the application of our algorithm.

Seismic Performance of a 1:4 Scale Two-Story Rammed Earth Model Reinforced with Steel Plates Tested on a Bi-Axial Shaking Table

During the 16th and 17th centuries, Latin American cities adopted earthen construction techniques from European colonizers. As a result, rammed earth (RE) buildings now occupy an important place in Latin America’s cultural heritage. However, earthquakes around the world have shown that unreinforced earthen constructions are highly vulnerable. For several years, researchers in northern South America have been proposing a technique that consists of installing confining steel plates (or wooden elements) on both sides of the RE walls to form a grid. This system has shown excellent performance in controlling seismic damage and increasing strength and ductility capacity. Although researchers have tested full-scale one- and two-story earthen walls under pseudo-static loading in the laboratory, and one- and two-story earthen walls at 1:1 and 1:2 scales on uniaxial and biaxial shaking tables, the behavior of a complete reinforced module (one- or two-story) on a shaking table has never been assessed. The present study presents the results of shaking table tests performed on two-story RE modules at 1:4 scale. The experimental data indicate that the retrofit system with confining steel plates was effective in reducing the seismic damage of earthen constructions. In addition, the comparison of the results of the 1:4 scale tests with the 1:2 and 1:1 scale tests previously conducted by the researchers shows that the acceleration levels of the equivalent prototypes are in the same order of magnitude for the three scales.

Weighing Geophysical Data With Trans‐Dimensional Algorithms: An Earthquake Location Case Study

AbstractIn geophysical inverse problems, the distribution of physical properties in an Earth model is inferred from a set of measured data. A necessary step is to select data that are best suited to the problem at hand. This step is performed ahead of solving the inverse problem, generally on the basis of expert knowledge. However, expert‐opinion can introduce bias based on pre‐conceptions. Here we apply a trans‐dimensional algorithm to automatically weigh data on the basis of how consistent they are with the fundamental hypotheses made to solve the inverse problem. We demonstrate this approach by inverting arrival times for the location of a seismic source in an elastic half‐space, assuming a point‐source and uniform weights in concentric shells. The key advantage is that the data do no longer need to be selected by an expert, but they are assigned varying weights during the inversion procedure.

Linking rates of slab sinking to long-term lower mantle flow and mixing

Numerical models of Earth's mantle dynamics that aim to comply with a variety of surface observations and/or modern mantle structure, still predict a widely varying vigour of mantle flow which governs the long-term evolution of mantle structure and mixing. A yet unexplored source of intrinsic information on mantle flow characteristics are the geologically reconstructed average slab sinking rates. Here we evaluate from numerical experiments how average slab sinking rates relate to the vigour of mantle convection and mixing. We use a simplified mantle convection model and show that long-term mantle flow velocity and mixing is strongly sensitive to slab sinking rates. Models tuned to match lower mantle average sinking rates of 10–15 mm/a, yield lower mantle convection rates of only several mm/a. Furthermore, they reveal large unmixed regions in the mid-mantle which preserve 25% of ‘primordial’ lower mantle material after 1000 Ma, which may explain geochemical observations from hotspot volcanoes.

Paleo sea-level indicators and proxies from Greenland in the GAPSLIP database and comparison with modelled sea level from the PaleoMIST ice-sheet reconstruction

One of the most common ways to assess ice-sheet reconstructions of the past is to evaluate how they impact changes in sea level through glacial isostatic adjustment. PaleoMIST 1.0, a preliminary reconstruction of topography and ice sheets during the past 80 000 years, was created without a rigorous comparison with past sea-level indicators and proxies in Greenland. The basal shear stress values for the Greenland ice sheet were deduced from the present day ice-sheet configuration, which were used for the entire 80 000 years without modification. The margin chronology was based on previous reconstructions and interpolation between them. As a result, it was not known if the Greenland component was representative of its ice-sheet history. In this study, I compile sea–level proxy data into the Global Archive of Paleo Sea Level Indicators and Proxies (GAPSLIP) database and use them to evaluate the PaleoMIST 1.0 reconstruction. The Last Glacial Maximum (c.20 000 years before present) contribution to sea level in PaleoMIST 1.0 is about 3.5 m, intermediate of other reconstructions of the Greenland ice sheet. The results of the data-model comparison show that PaleoMIST requires a larger pre-Holocene ice volume than it currently has to match the sea-level highstands observed around Greenland, especially in southern Greenland. Some of this mismatch is likely because of the crude 2500 year time step used in the margin reconstruction and the limited Last Glacial Maximum extent. Much of the mismatch can also be mitigated if different Earth model structures, particularly a thinner lithosphere, are assumed. Additional ice in Greenland would contribute to increasing the 3–5 m mismatch between the modelled far-field sea level at the Last Glacial Maximum and proxies in PaleoMIST 1.0.

Accelerating full-waveform inversion using source stacking: synthetic experiments at the global scale in a realistic 3-D earth model

SUMMARY The spectral element method is currently the method of choice for computing accurate synthetic seismic wavefields in realistic 3-D earth models at the global scale. However, it requires significantly more computational time, compared to normal mode-based approximate methods. Source stacking, whereby multiple earthquake sources are aligned on their origin time and simultaneously triggered, can reduce the computational costs by several orders of magnitude. We present the results of synthetic tests performed on a realistic radially anisotropic 3-D model, slightly modified from model SEMUCB-WM1 with three component synthetic waveform ‘data’ for a duration of 10 000 s, and filtered at periods longer than 60 s, for a set of 273 events and 515 stations. We consider two definitions of the misfit function, one based on the stacked records at individual stations and another based on station-pair cross-correlations of the stacked records. The inverse step is performed using a Gauss–Newton approach where the gradient and Hessian are computed using normal mode perturbation theory. We investigate the retrieval of radially anisotropic long wavelength structure in the upper mantle in the depth range 100–800 km, after fixing the crust and uppermost mantle structure constrained by fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion data. The results show good performance using both definitions of the misfit function, even in the presence of realistic noise, with degraded amplitudes of lateral variations in the anisotropic parameter ξ. Interestingly, we show that we can retrieve the long wavelength structure in the upper mantle, when considering one or the other of three portions of the cross-correlation time series, corresponding to where we expect the energy from surface wave overtone, fundamental mode or a mixture of the two to be dominant, respectively. We also considered the issue of missing data, by randomly removing a successively larger proportion of the available synthetic data. We replace the missing data by synthetics computed in the current 3-D model using normal mode perturbation theory. The inversion results degrade with the proportion of missing data, especially for ξ, and we find that a data availability of 45 per cent or more leads to acceptable results. We also present a strategy for grouping events and stations to minimize the number of missing data in each group. This leads to an increased number of computations but can be significantly more efficient than conventional single-event-at-a-time inversion. We apply the grouping strategy to a real picking scenario, and show promising resolution capability despite the use of fewer waveforms and uneven ray path distribution. Source stacking approach can be used to rapidly obtain a starting 3-D model for more conventional full-waveform inversion at higher resolution, and to investigate assumptions made in the inversion, such as trade-offs between isotropic, anisotropic or anelastic structure, different model parametrizations or how crustal structure is accounted for.

Combined monthly GRACE-FO gravity fields for a Global Gravity-based Groundwater Product

SUMMARY The Combination Service for Time-variable Gravity fields (COST-G) operationally provides combinations of monthly Earth gravity field models derived from observations of the microwave ranging instrument of the GRACE Follow-on (GRACE-FO) satellite mission, applying the quality control and combination methodology originally developed by the Horizon 2020 project European Gravity Service for Improved Emergency Management for the data of the GRACE satellites. In the frame of the follow-up Horizon 2020 project Global Gravity-based Groundwater Product (G3P), the GRACE-FO combination is used to derive global grids of groundwater storage anomalies. To meet the user requirements and achieve optimal signal-to-noise ratio, the combination has been further developed and extended to incorporate: • new time-series based on the alternative accelerometer transplant product generated in the frame of the project by the Institute of Geodesy at the Graz University of Technology, which specifically improves the estimation of the C30 coefficient and also reduces the noise at medium to short wavelengths, and • the new time-series AIUB–GRACE-FO–RL02 of monthly GRACE-FO gravity fields, which is derived at the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern by applying empirical noise modelling techniques. The COST-G quality control confirms the consistency of the contributing GRACE-FO time-series concerning the signal amplitude of seasonal hydrology in large river basins and the secular mass change in polar regions, but it also indicates rather diverse noise characteristics. The difference in the noise levels is taken into account in the combination process by relative weights derived by variance component estimation on the solution level. The weights are expected to be inverse proportional to the noise levels of the individual gravity field solutions. However, this expectation is violated when applying the weighting scheme as developed for the GRACE combination. The reason is found in the high-order coefficients of the gravity field, which are poorly determined from the low–low range-rate observations due to the observation geometry and suffer from aliasing due to the malfunctioning accelerometer onboard one of the GRACE-FO satellites. Hence, for the final G3P-combination a revised weighting scheme is applied where the gravity field coefficients beyond order 60 are excluded from the determination of the weights. The quality of the combined gravity fields is assessed by comparison of the noise content and the signal-to-noise ratio with the individual time-series. Independent validation is provided by the COST-G validation centre at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, where orbit fits of the low-flying Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite are performed that confirm the high quality of the combined GRACE-FO gravity fields. By the end of the G3P project, the new combination scheme is implemented by COST-G as the new COST-G–GRACE-FO–RL02 and continued to be used for the operational GRACE-FO combination.

Grounded source transient electromagnetic 3D forward modeling with the spectral-element method and its application in hydraulic fracturing monitoring

A long wire with large current source transient electromagnetic (TEM) monitoring, with a large detection depth, low cost, safety, and environmental protection, has unique advantages in the testing and identification of unconventional reservoir fluid and the evaluation of stimulated reservoir volume. So, the TEM 3D forward modeling method has become a research hotspot. Although the finite-element method (FEM) is a type of numerical algorithm that has been widely applied in three-dimensional (3D) electromagnetic field forward modeling, the efficiency and accuracy of FEM require further improvement in order to meet the demand of fast 3D inversion. By increasing the order of the basis function and adjusting the principle of mesh discretization, the precision of the mixed-order spectral-element (SEM) result will be increased. The backward Euler scheme is an unconditionally stable technique which can ignore the impact of the scale of the time step. To achieve a better description of the nonlinear electromagnetic (EM) response of the grounded source TEM method and to optimize the efficiency and accuracy/precision of the 3D TEM forward modeling method significantly, we proposed the use of 3D TEM forward modeling based on the mixed-order SEM and the backward Euler scheme, which can obtain more accurate EM results with fewer degrees of freedom. To check its accuracy and efficiency, the 1D and 3D layered models are applied to compare the SEM results with the semi-analytical and FEM solutions. In addition, we analyzed the accuracy and efficiency of the SEM method for different types of order basis functions. Finally, we calculated the long-wire source TEM response for a practical 3D earth model of a shale gas reservoir for fracturing monitoring and tested the feasibility of the TEM method in a hydraulic fracturing monitoring area to further demonstrate the flexibility of the SEM method.

Source Parameter Inversion and Century-Scale Stress Triggering Analysis of the 2021 Maduo MW7.4 Earthquake Using GNSS and InSAR Displacement Fields

To explore the degree of constraint by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data on the Maduo earthquake within a layered earth model structure and to gain an insight into the seismogenic mechanism and the seismic risk in the surrounding area, this study employs D-InSAR technology to acquire the InSAR co-seismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake on 22 May 2021. Utilizing both GNSS and InSAR data, the inversions constrained by single and joint data are conducted and compared to determine the co-seismic slip model and fault plane stress distribution of the Maduo earthquake. Additionally, this paper calculates the Coulomb stress changes induced by 14 M ≥ 7 strong earthquakes, considering co-seismic effects, post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation, and inter-seismic tectonic stress loading, on 19 fault segments within the Bayan Har block research area (96°E~106°E, 29°N~36°N) since 1900. The findings are as follows: (1) The maximum line-of-sight (LOS) deformation was approximately 0.9 m. The joint inversion rupture was primarily located in the Dongcao Along Lake section (~98.6°E), aligning with previous research outcomes. (2) The cumulative Coulomb stress at the Maduo earthquake’s source location was −0.1333 MPa, while the inter-seismic stress loading amounted to 0.0745 MPa. The East Kunlun Fault, Maduo–Gande Fault, Ganzi–Yushu Fault, and Dari Fault C exhibited considerable stress loading, warranting attention due to heightened seismic risk. (3) Based on three different co-seismic slip models, the stress disturbance results caused by the Maduo earthquake to the surrounding area and fault did not differ significantly. After the earthquake, the seismogenic fault still has high seismic risk.