Earthquake Threat Research Articles

A Markov reward process-based framework for resilience analysis of multistate energy systems under the threat of extreme events

Energy systems are increasingly exposed to the threats of extreme events like floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. In practice, the behaviors of the systems affected by these extreme events are often modeled by multistate models to facilitate the analysis. In this paper, we develop a generic framework for resilience modeling and analysis of multistate energy systems. A multistate resilience model is developed based on a Markov reward process model, where the degradation and recovery of system performance are characterized by a continuous time discrete state Markov chain and the losses caused by the extreme event is modeled by the reward rates associated with the sojourns in the degradation states and the transitions among the states. Four numerical metrics are defined to describe different aspects of system resilience, i.e. the resistant, absorption, recovery and overall resilience. A simulation-based algorithm is proposed for resilience analysis of multistate energy systems. The developed methods are applied for resilience modeling and analysis of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) under the threat of earthquakes. The Markov reward process model is developed following a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, a fragility analysis and an event tree modeling of accident evolutions. Both a time-static and time-dependent resilience analysis are conducted and the results show that the developed model is able to comprehensively describe the resilience of multistate energy systems under the threats of extreme events.

Investigating the seismic isolation effect of the cushioned pile raft foundation in soft clay through dynamic centrifuge tests

Cushioned pile-raft foundation (Cushioned-PR) is a new type of foundation for sea-crossing bridges in deep water (more than 50 m in depth). Cushioned-PR is able to tolerate a certain amount of slide that occurs between the raft and the piles under strong earthquakes. This characteristic could reduce the seismic motion transmitted to the superstructure to maintain the integrity of the bridge. Thus, Cushioned-PR has become popular for bridges under the threat of strong earthquakes. However, the dynamic responses of the Cushioned-PR under various earthquake intensities in soft clay have not been thoroughly understood. It is essential to better evaluate the isolation effect of Cushioned-PR to improve the design. In this study, the non-linear behavior of Cushioned-PR and the isolation effect of its interposed layer are evaluated using centrifuge tests. A series of dynamic centrifuge tests are performed with a 3 × 3 pile group foundation embedded in soft clay under different earthquake motions. Both the cushioned pile raft foundation system (Cushioned-PR) and the connected pile raft foundation system (Connected-PR) are tested in the centrifuge tests. Acceleration and residual displacement of the super-structure, and bending moment of columns and piles, are monitored during the experiments. The results show that the interposed layer in Cushioned-PR has a significant impact on the bending moment and residual displacement of the pile-raft system. Based on the observation from this study, the maximum bending moment of the column in the Cushioned-PR is around 28%–54% of the values from the Connected-PR. On the other side, the maximum horizontal displacement of Cushioned-PR is about 2–10 times larger than that of the Connected-PR. The results show that Cushioned-PR can effectively reduce the seismic excitation transmitted to the super-structure if the seismic intensity is high. However, the benefit of Cushioned-PR is marginal under low-intensity earthquakes.

Overall Seismic Risk in Bosnia-Herzegovina/Dalmatia Region of Croatia and Elements of Perfect Crisis in an Earthquake Aftermath

Bosnia-Herzegovina and southern-coastal/hinterland-region of Dalmatia, Republic of Croatia are a part of the same seismo-tectonic province and share a considerable and real threat of high-magnitude earthquakes. Numerous Magnitude 6 (Richter) and above earthquakes have been recorded in the past 500 years and some of them have resulted in a considerable loss of life, material and even prestige or geopolitical significance (e.g. the demise of Ragusa in the earthquake of 1667). Given the propensity of the region for destructive earthquakes, complex geomorphological framework and challenging infrastructure, still recovering in parts from the Yugoslav civil wars of the 1990s., the region may yield a “perfect” crisis in the aftermath of a major earthquake event. Taking into consideration unchecked development of several metropolitan areas, lack of oversight and permitting, decaying infrastructure as well as unresolved political ambiguities and territorial disputes, a potential destructive earthquake may create several cascading crises, especially if it coincides with some other challenging events (e.g. winter storms). This study is taking into consideration several scenarios, their possible effects and resulting conditions upon which cascading crises may arise in the aftermath of a magnitude 7+ earthquake affecting several major urban areas in southern and central Bosnia-Herzegovina and the southern Dalmatian region of Croatia. These scenarios are intended to provide training aids and risk assessments in countering the destructive forces after the earthquake, expected to test the current crisis-management models.

Capacity-based seismic design of a middle-rise residential building in an area of moderately-high seismicity

As Indonesia is located across three active tectonic plates, it is prone to a high potential earthquake threat. Strict regulations have been introduced to prevent damage to buildings caused by seismic activity. This study aims to examine the behavior of a middle-rise residential building in a moderately-high seismicity area (i.e. Semarang City) and the design of the Reinforced Concrete (RC) members under seismic load. The design was based on the capacity method and the strong column-weak beam concept was applied to the plastic hinge effect that occurred in the beam. Therefore, the analytical computation was performed, taking the structural seismic response into account. Also, the code-based design calculation of RC members was achieved. The measured structural response showed that the building fulfilled the requirements stated in the Indonesia Code of Earthquake-based Design. The first two modes of the building translated in the Y and X directions, which is the preferred response under the earthquake. The story-drifts that occurred were within the acceptable limits and the structural stiffness in the X and Y directions were found to be similar. Finally, the exact design of RC members was found to satisfy the code.

Optimum life-cycle maintenance strategies of deteriorating highway bridges subject to seismic hazard by a hybrid Markov decision process model

Highway bridges are a class of important infrastructure components in transportation networks. Highway bridges will inevitably deteriorate over time due to various external impacts, such as traffic loads and corrosion. In seismic-prone areas, seismic hazard is another critical factor that threatens the normal operation of ageing highway bridges. To ensure adequate safety of ageing highway bridges under potential earthquake shocks, it is imperative to perform proper maintenances during their service life. This paper aims at optimizing the life-cycle maintenance strategies for highway bridges under the combinatorial threats of progressive deterioration and sudden earthquakes. Driven by the distinct characteristics of the two threats, we have proposed a novel hybrid Markov decision process model that integrates a discrete-time Markov decision process model for dealing with progressive deterioration and a continuous-time Markov decision process model for dealing with sudden earthquakes into a unified framework. The proposed model is further reduced into the form of a discrete-time Markov decision process model with an equivalent state transition matrix and an equivalent discount factor, which can be easily solved by dynamic programming. A ternary state space that collectively describes corrosion initiation, corrosion damage cumulation, and seismic damage cumulation is defined. A gamma process and a Poisson process are adopted to model bridge corrosion and earthquake occurrences, respectively. To demonstrate the application of the proposed framework, a numerical example is conducted, in which the optimizations with respect to the maintenance strategy, inspection interval, and design performance level of a hypothetical highway bridge are carried out successively.

PSHA of the southern Pacific Islands

Summary The southern Pacific Islands region is highly seismically active, and includes earthquakes from four major subduction systems, seafloor fracture zones and transform faults, and other sources of crustal seismicity. Since 1900, the area has experienced >350 earthquakes of M > 7.0, including 11 of M ≥ 8.0. Given the elevated threat of earthquakes, several probabilistic seismic hazard analyses have been published for this region or encompassed subregions; however, those that are publicly accessible do not provide complete coverage of the region using homogeneous methodologies. Here, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard model for the southern Pacific Islands that comprehensively covers the Solomon Islands in the northwest to the Tonga islands in the southeast. The seismic source model accounts for active shallow crustal seismicity with seafloor faults and gridded smoothed seismicity, subduction interfaces using faults with geometries defined based on geophysical datasets and models, and intraslab seismicity modelled by a set of ruptures that occupy the slab volume. Each source type is assigned occurrence rates based on sub-catalogues classified to each respective tectonic context. Subduction interface and crustal fault occurrence rates also incorporate a tectonic component based on their respective characteristic earthquakes. We demonstrate the use of non-standard magnitude-frequency distributions to reproduce the observed occurrence rates. For subduction interface sources, we use various versions of the source model to account for epistemic uncertainty in factors impacting the maximum magnitude earthquake permissible by each source, varying the interface lower depth and segmentation as well as the magnitude scaling relationship used to compute the maximum magnitude earthquake and subsequently its occurrence rate. The ground motion characterisation uses a logic tree that weights three ground motion prediction equations for each tectonic region. We compute hazard maps for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years on rock sites, discussing the regional distribution of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration with a period of 1.0 s, honing in on the hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra of several capital or populous cities and drawing comparisons to other recent hazard models. The results reveal that the most hazardous landmasses are the island chains closest to subduction trenches, as well as localised areas with high rates of seismicity occurring in active shallow crust. We use seismic hazard disaggregation to demonstrate that at selected cities located above subduction zones, the PGA with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years is controlled by Mw > 7.0 subduction interface and intraslab earthquakes, while at cities far from subduction zones, Mw < 6.5 crustal earthquakes contribute most. The model is used for southern Pacific Islands coverage in the Global Earthquake Model Global Hazard Mosaic.

FEM Analysis of Hole-opened Metallic Plate Connections in Prefabricated Energy-dissipation Joint

The prefabricated structure is vigorously promoted due to its obvious superiorities of high-efficiency construction rate and environment-friendly construction scheme. However, this fast-growing new structural system is still facing the threat of earthquakes, especially its beam-to-column connecting joints which are the weaker link in the entire structural system all the time. This study investigates the failure behaviour of hole-opened metallic plate connections in prefabricated energy-dissipation joints and its finite element models were provided. Parametric study was performed to obtain the influence of metallic-plate size on the bearing capacity, deformation performance, and ductility. Based on the results of numerical simulation, the failure modes of specimens were focused on weakened sections. Moreover, proposed design sizes were given, comprising that the weakened length a/L of holes is from 0.25 to 0.55 and the weakened width b/B is from 0.3 to 0.5. The suggested value of width to thickness ratio is 0.2 and the value of the gap is within 0.5 to 2 mm.

Investigating the Possible Damages of Earthquakes in Submarine Pipelines in terms of Disaster Management

Earthquake is one of the natural disasters that has always been of interest to researchers. It seems to be difficult to deal with an earthquake due to its accidental nature and unpredictability. Today, with the expansion of cities and the growth in their population, concerns about the increase in casualties and damages caused by the earthquake have increased. Post-earthquake management is highly dependent on predicting the amount and type of damage in any type of structure. Among these structures, little attention has been paid to infrastructures, including underground and submarine pipelines. Given the importance of these structures, research on the impact of earthquakes on these structures and their forms of damages is essential. It is also very important to predict the disaster management plan of the water supply, sewer, oil, and gas pipeline networks due to the earthquake threat. As it is known, the comprehensive approach to disaster management includes prevention (mitigation), preparedness, response, and recovery stages. This study focuses on investigating possible damages in submarine pipelines after an earthquake and study on mentioned disaster management stages and  provides an overview of the effects of possible earthquakes on submarine pipelines.

Discovery of Ulaanbaatar Fault: A New Earthquake Threat to the Capital of Mongolia

AbstractDestructive large earthquakes occur not only along major plate boundaries but also within the interior of plates. To establish appropriate safety measures, identifying intraplate active faults and the potential magnitude of associated earthquakes is essential before an earthquake occurs. This study was conducted to document the geomorphic expression of a previously unrecognized 50-km-long active fault in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. Mapping of the fault was accomplished using the Advanced Land Observation Satellite elevation dataset provided by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), a stereo-scope interpretation of CORONA satellite images, the emplacement of trenches across the fault trace, and field study. The Ulaanbaatar fault (UBF) is marked by fault scarps on the surface and left-lateral stream deflections. The fault displaces late Pleistocene deposits and is thus considered to be active. Based on the length of the fault, the UBF is believed to be capable of causing earthquakes with magnitudes greater than M 7 and subsequent associated damage to buildings and heavy causalities within the metropolitan area. We strongly suggest that building resistance requirements in Ulaanbaatar should be revised to mitigate for the potential of extensive seismic damage. The results of this study can be used to revise the seismic hazard map and stipulate a new disaster prevention strategy to improve public safety in Ulaanbaatar. It is also possible that there may be other active faults in the vicinity of Ulaanbaatar, and these require investigation.

The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component

In December 2018, at the conclusion of its second implementation phase, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation released its first version of a map outlining the spatial distribution of seismic hazard at a global scale. The map is the result of an extensive, joint effort combining the results obtained from a collection of probabilistic seismic hazard models, called the GEM Mosaic. Together, the map and the underlying database of models provide an up-to-date view of the earthquake threat globally. In addition, using the Mosaic, a synopsis of the current state-of-practice in modeling probabilistic seismic hazard at national and regional scales is possible. The process adopted for the compilation of the Mosaic adhered to the maximum extent possible to GEM’s principles of collaboration, inclusiveness, transparency, and reproducibility. For each region, priority was given to seismic hazard models either developed by well-recognized national agencies or by large collaborative projects involving local scientists. The version of the GEM Mosaic presented herein contains 30 probabilistic seismic hazard models, 14 of which represent national or sub-national models; the remainder are regional-scale models. We discuss the general qualities of these models, the underlying framework of the database, and the outlook for the Mosaic’s utility and its future versions.

Intervention and assessment of earthquake knowledge at rural schools near the New Madrid seismic zone, USA

Possible recurrence of large earthquakes such as the 1811–1812 New Madrid sequence presents a significant hazard in the Central United States. The efficacy of earthquake educational interventions intended to mitigate the Central United States earthquake threat has not been assessed. We describe the assessment of an intervention consisting of earth science and earthquake content presentations, an earthquake simulation and preparedness video, discussions with questions and answers, and a safety drill. Elementary and middle school students in nine schools in rural Illinois were tested before and after the intervention to determine the effectiveness of the intervention. Data were collected using a 21-item, 3-construct questionnaire. Following factor analysis of the survey data, general linear mixed models were estimated to examine the effect of the intervention on student knowledge along three domains. Results indicated students’ knowledge increased significantly in local and general earthquake knowledge, as well as in general earthquake safety knowledge. Findings of this study provided evidence to improve earthquake outreach programs and to advance science teaching methods, especially in rural schools. Additionally, the assertion that interventions must be assessed was reinforced, and information gained will improve the assessment instrument and methodology.

RECYCLED TIRE ISOLATOR AS EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE SYSTEM FOR SINGLE STOREY BUILDING IN MALAYSIA

The studies of seismic isolation have gradually become important particularly in countries of active seismicity activity. The main idea of isolation is to provide flexibility to the structural foundation as well as to absorb energy and mitigating ground acceleration generated from earthquake forces. However, the cost to manufacture conventional commercial rubber isolator is high due to its heavy weight complicated in the process of preparation involving expensive machinery. When earthquake occurs, the building structure especially low rise residential buildings such as single storey buildings are subjected to high inertia forces which lead to structural damages. Country such as Malaysia which located outside the earthquake region is now even facing the threat of earthquake too in some areas especially Sabah. This alerts Malaysia that there is a need to develop an earthquake resistance mechanism. Recycled Tire Isolator (RTI) is a model designed to be embedded into the foundation of a low rise building in order to withstand earthquake forces. The main component in the fabrication of RTI is recycled tire. The useable section of the recycle tire is the tread and will be split into small pieces with measurement of 300mm x 210mm. Each piece of cut tire is about 10mm thick. The method of preparation of RTI samples is simple which is cost effective and sustainable. RTI samples consist of four to five layers of cut recycled tire pads. Static compression test was conducted to examine the vertical capacity of RTI. A controlled vertical force of 380 kN (maximum capacity of the compression test machine) was applied on to the RTI during the compression test. An average displacement of 11.5mm was recorded when the cracking sound was heard indicating the failure of RTI sample. The static or vertical stiffness of RTI was determined. Besides, dynamic compressive load test was another experiment carried out to examine the damping coefficient, damping ratio and also dynamic stiffness of RTI. The results obtained from the experiment were compared with the commercial available isolators and also compared among the RTIs. The similarities of characteristics between RTI and the commercial isolators have given an indication that RTI has great potential to be adopted as earthquake base isolator for single storey residential buildings.

RECYCLED TIRE ISOLATOR AS EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE SYSTEM FOR SINGLE STOREY BUILDING IN MALAYSIA

The studies of seismic isolation have gradually become important particularly in countries of active seismicity activity. The main idea of isolation is to provide flexibility to the structural foundation as well as to absorb energy and mitigating ground acceleration generated from earthquake forces. However, the cost to manufacture conventional commercial rubber isolator is high due to its heavy weight complicated in the process of preparation involving expensive machinery. When earthquake occurs, the building structure especially low rise residential buildings such as single storey buildings are subjected to high inertia forces which lead to structural damages. Country such as Malaysia which located outside the earthquake region is now even facing the threat of earthquake too in some areas especially Sabah. This alerts Malaysia that there is a need to develop an earthquake resistance mechanism. Recycled Tire Isolator (RTI) is a model designed to be embedded into the foundation of a low rise building in order to withstand earthquake forces. The main component in the fabrication of RTI is recycled tire. The useable section of the recycle tire is the tread and will be split into small pieces with measurement of 300mm x 210mm. Each piece of cut tire is about 10mm thick. The method of preparation of RTI samples is simple which is cost effective and sustainable. RTI samples consist of four to five layers of cut recycled tire pads. Static compression test was conducted to examine the vertical capacity of RTI. A controlled vertical force of 380 kN (maximum capacity of the compression test machine) was applied on to the RTI during the compression test. An average displacement of 11.5mm was recorded when the cracking sound was heard indicating the failure of RTI sample. The static or vertical stiffness of RTI was determined. Besides, dynamic compressive load test was another experiment carried out to examine the damping coefficient, damping ratio and also dynamic stiffness of RTI. The results obtained from the experiment were compared with the commercial available isolators and also compared among the RTIs. The similarities of characteristics between RTI and the commercial isolators have given an indication that RTI has great potential to be adopted as earthquake base isolator for single storey residential buildings.

Information credibility, disaster risk perception and evacuation willingness of rural households in China

Information credibility is important for effective disaster communication, and its strength affects the evacuation willingness of residents. However, few reports have studied the correlation of information credibility and disaster risk perception with residents’ willingness to evacuate during earthquake threats. Using survey data of 327 rural households located in four counties within earthquake-affected areas in Sichuan Province, this study systematically analyzed the credibility of public and private information about rural households, disaster risk perception and residents’ evacuation willingness. After creating an ordinary least square regression model (OLS) to investigate the correlations of the above factors, the results showed that: (1) Both positive public information and negative private information were positively correlated with residents’ evacuation willingness, and negative public information and positive private information were negatively correlated with residents’ evacuation willingness; (2) the perceived severity of disaster was significantly correlated with residents’ evacuation willingness, and the perceived probability of disaster was not significantly correlated with residents’ evacuation willingness; and (3) both positive and negative public information indirectly affected residents’ evacuation willingness through the perception of disaster severity. This study contributed to our understanding of the correlation of information credibility and disaster risk perception with evacuation willingness and provided important information for effective communication and disaster risk management.

ОЦЕНКА СЕЙСМИЧНОСТИ СИЛ ИНЕРЦИИ ПО ФАКТИЧЕСКИМ ПОВРЕЖДЕНИЯМ МОСТОВ

because of the constant threat of earthquakes in seismic hazardous areas, it is necessary to study the issues of seismic resistance of structures and development of methods of their design, taking into account the seismic factor. A significant share in the total volume of engineering structures permanent and built on canals and roads is occupied by artificial structures, such as aqueducts, small and medium bridges (overpasses). In this regard, the provision of seismic resistance of these structures is of practical interest. Buildings and structures located in seismic areas are affected by factors that cause the occurrence of seismic forces and changes in the working conditions of structures during earthquakes The article presents the results of comparison of calculations in the dynamic theory (by the method of spectral curves) and static seismic coefficient determination with the actual data on damage to structures in strong earthquakes. A formula for calculating the coefficient of seismicity is proposed.

The Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake: Will emergency managers be willing and able to report to work?

This study examines the factors that are likely to influence emergency managers’ willingness and ability to report to work after a catastrophic event using the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake threat as an example. The population approached for participation in this study was state-level emergency managers in Oregon and Washington, the areas anticipated to be the most impacted by the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. Concept mapping was utilized to elucidate factors influencing emergency managers’ ability and willingness to report to work following a catastrophic earthquake, as well as to identify specific strategies for addressing these factors to facilitate reporting to work. The six-step concept mapping process (i.e., preparation, generation, structuring, representation, interpretation, and utilization) is a structured and integrated mixed-method process that employs both qualitative and quantitative components to gather ideas and concepts of participants, and subsequently produces visual representation of these ideas and concepts through multivariate statistical methods (Caracelli and Green in Eval ProgramPlan 12(1):45–52, 1993; Kane and Trochim in Concept mapping for planning and evaluation, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, 2007). Results influence across a wide range of the levels of the ecological framework for both ability (transit barriers and infrastructure impacts, family/pet health and safety, social support and preparedness, work-related influences, personal health and resources, professional obligations, and location) and willingness (family/community preparedness and safety, emergency management responsibility and professionalism, motivation to come to work, transit barriers and infrastructure impacts, professional contribution, physical and mental health, worksite operations: structure and process, family first, personal contribution and history).

Seismic estimation of casualties and direct economic loss to Byblos city: a contribution to the ‘100 resilient cities’ strategy

ABSTRACT Byblos, a Lebanese City, a UNESCO world heritage and one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities, is a member of the 100 Resilient Cities project. To help mitigate its stresses and chocks, Byblos is implementing its resilience strategy enclosing the five pillars: Connected, Resourceful, Peaceful, Cultural, and Thriving. Since the earthquake threat is not selected in this strategy, this study proposes to complement the 100 RC efforts and aims to urge Byblos Municipality authorities and governmental institutions to act based on concrete results offered, to provide emergency, prevention and recovery plans for the city and to enhance the civil protection. Therefore, first, we present the Byblos resilience strategy, identifying the city stresses and shocks, discussing its seismic threat and presenting complementary measures. Second, we model structural building damage, casualties, and buildings direct economic damage, including structural and nonstructural damage. Finally, results and recommendations are offered for an improved resilience strategy.

Surface rupture geomorphology and vertical slip rates constrained by terraces along the Wulashan piedmont fault in the Hetao Basin, China

The Wulashan piedmont fault is a typical normal fault in the northern Ordos Block and has exhibited intense activity since the Late Pleistocene. It is located among the Ordos Block, Alashan Block, Yanshan Block and North China Block and between the NE expansion of the Tibetan Plateau and the subduction of the Pacific Plate. This area is important as a key location to study the remote effects of the Tibetan Plateau NE expansion. Historical M 8 earthquakes in 7 BCE and 849 CE occurred near this fault and thus the fault poses a potential earthquake threat but has received little research attention. We observed the surface ruptures, measured the heights of terraces created by fault offsets, excavated trenches and used optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of samples to study the late Quaternary fault activity. This study shows that the fault is divided into three segments. Three levels of terraces were produced by movement on the fault. The T1 terrace formed at approximately 10 ka, the T2 terrace formed between 30 and 40 ka, and the T3 terrace formed between 40 and 50 ka. Based on the average terrace heights along the fault, we calculate that the vertical fault slip rates have been approximately 1.12–1.34 mm/a in the Holocene and 2.2–2.28 mm/a since 50 ka. Our analysis shows that the Daqingshan piedmont fault has the highest vertical slip rate, the Wulashan piedmont fault has an intermediate slip rate and the Sertengshan piedmont fault has the lowest vertical slip rate. The area between the Wulashan and Daqingshan piedmont faults readily accumulates seismic stress and represents a potential future earthquake site. Trenches provide visible evidence of vertical rupture and slip movement in subsurface profiles, revealing six events on the Gongmiaozi segment since 25 ka and 14 events on the Baotou segment since 120 ka. The analysis shows that the Ordos peripheral fault system formed due to the subduction of the Pacific Plate. The northward expansion of the Tibetan Plateau and the movement of the Ordos Block have caused fault activity in the northern part of the Hetao Basin since the Late Pleistocene. The modern tectonic stress field and the upwelling of asthenospheric material east of the Hetao fault zone have resulted in an increase in the slip rate on the Hetao fault zone from west to east.

Disaster and crises management strategy

The aim of the research is to deepen the preparation and early warning of all types of disasters, natural and artificial ones, considering the scarcity of resources and the difficulty of acting during and after disasters. The research discussed the mechanism of preparedness at various stages of disasters and the justification for including such a practical plan. A historical background was presented, the most important terms of disaster reduction were defined. The research also clearly discussed a vision of the disaster reduction effect from a purely environmental point of view. Many disasters are caused by excessive human exploitation of the environment or neglect of environmental resources. Which led to the inability of some ecosystems to withstand, therefore, collapsed and the disaster occurred.The practical part, questioner was designed to assess the potential of Local Government and individuals to plan ahead, especially with the recent threat of flood, earthquakes and wars. The findings showed that there should be more efforts to cope the deficit in the adoption of mechanisms of disaster risk reduction in the stages (before - after - during) at the institutional and community level.The second area of the practical part included the review of the experiences of 10 countries that had experienced natural disasters or wars and the impact of these crises on them compared with their readiness, infrastructure and social awareness. Data were introduced in the linear regression model and an inverse relationship was found between the inclusion of plans and the extent of damage caused by the disaster. The greater the readiness, the less harm and vice versa, which proves the hypothesis of research.

Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from a Scenario Earthquake on the Sanchiao Fault in Northern Taiwan

In this article, the seismic hazard potential in northern Taiwan, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung City and northern Taoyuan areas are estimated in the form of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity as well as to assess attendant potential human fatalities from a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault in these areas. By using ground motion prediction equation method in a case of Mw6.88 resulting in the ShakeMap patterns of ground motion, showed the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the regions inside the yellow lines of the PGA contour map. Furthermore, the areas of PGA greater than 637 gal are located in the northern Bali and the border area of Sinjhuang and Shulin. Likewise, the high PGV area greater than 60 cm/s are located in the border area of Sinjhuang, Taishan and Shulin. In addition, from estimation of potential human fatalities for a scenario earthquake on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention by Taipei City Government is the number and percentage of fatalities above age 85 are more in Taipei City with values of 419 and 8.54% than New than Taipei City with values of 319 and 5.02%. In addition, it is surprising that the number and percentage of fatalities are 1234 and 9.75%, respectively in Taoyuan City. Overall, the results of this paper will enable both local and central governments in Taiwan to take notice of potential earthquake threat in these areas, as well as to improve decision making with respect to emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities for earthquakes in northern Taiwan.