Earthquake Rupture Research Articles

Ground-Motion Variability for Ruptures on Rough Faults

ABSTRACT Fault roughness influences earthquake rupture dynamics, seismic energy radiation, and, hence, resulting ground motion and its variability. Using 3D dynamic rupture simulations considering a range of rough-fault realizations, we investigate the effects of rupture complexity caused by fault roughness on ground-motion variability, that is, the variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV) as a function of distance. In our analysis, we vary hypocenter locations (leading to unilateral and bilateral ruptures) and fault roughness amplitude to generate a set of magnitude M ≈ 7 strike-slip dynamic rupture simulations. Synthetic seismic waveforms computed on a dense set of surface sites (maximum resolved frequency 5.75 Hz) form our database for detailed statistical analyses. For unilateral ruptures, our simulations reveal that ground-shaking variability (in terms of PGA and PGV) remains nearly constant with increasing distance from the fault. In contrast, bilateral ruptures lead to slowly decreasing ground-motion variability with increasing distance in the near field (less than 20 km). The variability becomes almost constant at large fault distances. We also find that low-amplitude fault roughness leads to ruptures that are likely to generate higher PGA variability than events on faults with high-amplitude roughness. Increasing fault roughness distorts the radiation pattern, thereby reducing directivity effects and, hence, potentially lowering ground-motion variability. The average PGV variability from our rough-fault rupture models is consistent with estimates from empirical ground-motion models (GMMs). However, the average PGA variability exceeds the variability encoded in empirical GMMs by nearly 20%. Hence, our findings have implications for near-source ground-motion prediction in seismic hazard studies, because ground-motion variability depends on details of the earthquake rupture process and is larger than GMM estimates.

A Diffuse Interface Method for Earthquake Rupture Dynamics Based on a Phase‐Field Model

AbstractIn traditional modeling approaches, earthquakes are often depicted as displacement discontinuities across zero‐thickness surfaces embedded within a linear elastodynamic continuum. This simplification, however, overlooks the intricate nature of natural fault zones and may fail to capture key physical phenomena integral to fault processes. Here, we propose a diffuse interface description for dynamic earthquake rupture modeling to address these limitations and gain deeper insight into fault zones' multifaceted volumetric failure patterns, mechanics, and seismicity. Our model leverages a steady‐state phase‐field, implying time‐independent fault zone geometry, which is defined by the contours of a signed distance function relative to a virtual fault plane. Our approach extends the classical stress glut method, adept at approximating fault‐jump conditions through inelastic alterations to stress components. We remove the sharp discontinuities typically introduced by the stress glut approach via our spatially smooth, mesh‐independent fault representation while maintaining the method's inherent logical simplicity within the well‐established spectral element method framework. We verify our approach using 2D numerical experiments in an open‐source spectral element implementation, examining both a kinematically driven Kostrov‐like crack and spontaneous dynamic rupture in diffuse fault zones. The capabilities of our methodology are showcased through mesh‐independent planar and curved fault zone geometries. Moreover, we highlight that our phase‐field‐based diffuse rupture dynamics models contain fundamental variations within the fault zone. Dynamic stresses intertwined with a volumetrically applied friction law give rise to oblique plastic shear and fault reactivation, markedly impacting rupture front dynamics and seismic wave radiation. Our results encourage future applications of phase‐field‐based earthquake modeling.

Improved Observations of Deep Earthquake Ruptures Using Machine Learning

AbstractElevated seismic noise for moderate‐size earthquakes recorded at teleseismic distances has limited our ability to see their complexity. We develop a machine‐learning‐based algorithm to separate noise and earthquake signals that overlap in frequency. The multi‐task encoder‐decoder model is built around a kernel pre‐trained on local (e.g., short distances) earthquake data (Yin et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac290) and is modified by continued learning with high‐quality teleseismic data. We denoise teleseismic P waves of deep Mw5.0+ earthquakes and use the clean P waves to estimate source characteristics with reduced uncertainties of these understudied earthquakes. We find a scaling of moment and duration to be M0 ≃ τ4, and a resulting strong scaling of stress drop and radiated energy with magnitude ( and ). The median radiation efficiency is 5%, a low value compared to crustal earthquakes. Overall, we show that deep earthquakes have weak rupture directivity and few subevents, suggesting a simple model of a circular crack with radial rupture propagation is appropriate. When accounting for their respective scaling with earthquake size, we find no systematic depth variations of duration, stress drop, or radiated energy within the 100–700 km depth range. Our study supports the findings of Poli and Prieto (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jb013521) with a doubled amount of earthquakes investigated and with earthquakes of lower magnitudes.

Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye

Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients.

Tsunami potential in the Makran subduction zone: Amplification effects from earthquake rupture directivity and speed

Tsunami potential in the Makran subduction zone: Amplification effects from earthquake rupture directivity and speed

A Computation to Generate 2D and 3D Vector Displacements Using InSAR Ascending and Descending Source Data (Case Studies: Landslides and Earthquake in Indonesia)

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a radar technique to generate map of surface deformation using phase differences acquired at different times. The InSAR technique measures these phase differences in its line of sight (LOS). Regarding LOS projection to a ground coordinate system, the combination of SAR data from ascending and descending can estimate at least two dimensional fields which are vertical and east-west components and three dimensional fields with either an additional motion model or vector displacements from along-track direction. The purpose of this work is to generate 2D and 3D vector displacements from two different InSAR tracks (e.g. ascending and descending) with a calculation programme both for the mean velocity and time series data named as PS DISP. 2D mode is calculated in which the north-south component is neglected due to insensitive along the flight direction, thus, assuming to be zero (0). On the other hand, 3D mode is calculated with an assumption that the northsouth component moves along the elevation downward. The experimental results were conducted for the Puncak Pass and Puncak Highway landslides and the Lombok earthquake in Indonesia. For the landslide study, the computation generated the movement towards the slope surface in the 3D Cartesian coordinate (dU,dE, and dN (psuedo)) and found both the crown body and cumulative zone of the landslide. For the earthquake study, PS DISP decomposed 2D vectors (dU and dE). The area of earthquake rupture was lifted by 42 cm and other northern Lombok areas by 10 - 25 cm. Regarding the west-eastern motion, it shows that the west of northern Lombok was displaced ±5 cm toward the west direction, while the other side to the east direction. Keywords: InSAR, 2D and 3D displacements, slope aspect, ground motion, landslide, earthquake

A window into thousands of earthquakes: Results from the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP)

In 1941, two geologists, Harold Wellman and Richard Willett, traversed the length of Westland, mapping what would become one of the most influential continental faults in the world, New Zealand’s Alpine Fault (Wellman & Willet 1942). The Alpine Fault strikes down the western edge of the Southern Alps, a youthful mountain range on New Zealand’s South Island (Fig 1). Here, collision between the Australian and Pacific Plates forms peaks over 3000 m in elevation which trap rain-laden clouds, resulting in 5–15 m of precipitation a year in central and south Westland. Driven by gravity, the rain and snow migrate into fractures and voids along the Alpine Fault, becoming heated and saturated with reactive ions along the way. Within the fault zone, these fluids play a fundamental role in the processes that drive earthquake nucleation and rupture propagation. Measurements made, and rocks recovered, from boreholes drilled during phases one and two of the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP) have enabled scientists to document and quantify these processes for the first time.

Nucleation Mechanism and Rupture Dynamics of Laboratory Earthquakes at Different Loading Rates

The loading rate of tectonic stress is not constant during long-term geotectonic activity and significantly affects the earthquake nucleation and fault rupture process. However, the mechanism underlying the loading rate effect is still unclear. In this study, we conducted a series of experiments to explore the effect of the loading rate on earthquake nucleation and stick–slip characteristics. Through lab experiments, faults were biaxially loaded at varying rates to produce a series of earthquakes (stick–slip events). Both shear strain and fault displacement were monitored during these events. The findings indicate a substantial effect of the loading rate on the recurrence interval and the shear stress drop of these stick–slip events, with the recurrence interval inversely proportional to the loading rate. The peak friction of the fault also decreases with the increasing loading rate. Notably, prior to the dynamic rupture of earthquakes, there exists a stable nucleation phase where slip occurs in a quasi-static manner. The critical nucleation length, or the distance required before the dynamic rupture, diminishes with both the loading rate and normal stress. A theoretical model is introduced to rationalize these observations. However, the rupture velocity of these lab-simulated earthquakes showed no significant correlation with the loading rate. Overall, this study enhanced our comprehension of earthquake nucleation and rupture dynamics in diverse tectonic settings.

Persistent asperities at the Kermadec subduction zone controlled by changes in forearc structure: 1976 and 2021 doublet earthquakes

To what degree large earthquakes are ‘characteristic’ is a critical question in understanding the fundamentals of earthquake physics and the seismic cycle. Here we study the ruptures of the 2021 Mw7.4 and Mw8.1 doublet earthquake sequence in the Kermadec subduction zone and compare them with the 1976 doublet that occurred at the same location. We find that although the 2021 mainshock likely re-ruptured the same asperity as the 1976 Mw7.9 event, the detailed slip distribution is different. Other ruptures in the doublets also differ in character and location. Our observations indicate the variability between large earthquakes on the same segment of the plate boundary in each earthquake cycle. All earthquakes occur in an isolated area of the megathrust, which is bounded by changes in the lithospheric structure of the overriding plate as indicated by bathymetric and gravity data. This high-seismicity region is coincident with an isolated forearc sedimentary basin, possibly formed by basal erosion related to seismogenesis, suggesting that seismic slip has persisted here for several million years. Refined up-dip aftershock and background seismicity focal mechanisms have a steeper dip angle than the slab interface, suggesting these events are located within the subducting oceanic slab, possibly forming a rougher plate interface that facilitates basal erosion. We conclude that the stress heterogeneity within this bounded seismogenic zone is long-lived and has produced a rich spectrum of earthquake ruptures.

Complex fault geometry controls dynamic rupture of the 2021 Mw7.4 Maduo earthquake, NE Tibetan Plateau

Geodetic observations and seismic inversions suggest that the 2021 Mw7.4 Maduo earthquake's rupture velocity differs in two directions. However, the dynamic mechanisms underlying these differences remain unclear. To address this issue, we constructed a three-dimensional finite element model implementing heterogeneous fault geometry and real topography and simulated the Maduo earthquake's dynamic rupture process, with the tectonic stress field varying with depth. The results show that the uneven distribution of normal and shear stresses on the fault plane, due to the complex geometry of the seismogenic fault, is the primary factor controlling rupture velocity and slips on the fault plane of the Maduo earthquake. The modelled results reproduced basic kinematic characteristics as indicated by the observation and inversion results of the Maduo earthquake. Our study also suggests that if an earthquake occurs in a region without significant changes in velocity structure and stress field distribution, the complex geometry of the seismogenic fault is responsible for the dynamic rupture process. These findings provide important insights into the rupture behaviour of geometrically complex faults and have important implications for seismic hazard assessments of these complicated fault systems.

Large Earthquakes Recurrence Time in the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Results from a physics-based simulator approach

Large earthquakes mean recurrence time (Tr) on specific fault segments is one of the primary input parameters for developing long-term Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF) models in a specific time span considering either a time-independent or an elastic rebound motivated renewal assumption. An attempt is made to define Tr on the major fault segments comprised in Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), which is an active boundary demarcating from the west the area of central Ionian Islands, namely Lefkada and Kefalonia, and is associated with remarkably high seismic activity. Frequent large (Mw ≥ 6.0) earthquakes are reported to have caused severe damage during the last six centuries. Although the number of large earthquakes (including both historical and instrumental) is satisfactory enough for regional hazard studies, their number become very limited when they are subdivided into subsets assigned to specific fault segments. Physics-based earthquake simulators are approaches to overcome recurrence intervals shortage, due to their ability to generate long lasting earthquake catalogs. The application of a physics-based simulatorn the KTFZ, is attemped upon a detailed fault network model and implemented multiple times and with a wide range of input parameters, aiming at the definition of the most representative simulated catalog in respect to the observed regional seismicity. The most representative simulated catalog is finally used for investigating the recurrence behavior of large (Mw ≥ 6.0) earthquakes and assessing whether the renewal model performs better that the Poisson model, after considering both individual and multiple ruptured segments scenarios.

Laboratory Earthquake Rupture Interactions With a High Normal Stress Bump

AbstractTo better understand how normal stress heterogeneity affects earthquake rupture, we conducted laboratory experiments on a 760 mm poly (methyl‐mathacrylate) PMMA sample with a 25 mm “bump” of locally higher normal stress (∆σbt). We systematically varied the sample‐average normal stress () and bump prominence (). For bumps with lower prominence () the rupture simply propagated through the bump and produced regular sequences of periodic stick‐slip events. Bumps with higher prominence () produced complex rupture sequences with variable timing and ruptures sizes, and this complexity persisted for multiple stick‐slip supercycles. During some events, the bump remained locked and acted as a barrier that completely stopped rupture. In other events, a dynamic rupture front terminated at the locked bump, but rupture reinitiated on the other side of the bump after a brief pause of 0.3–1 ms. Only when stress on the bump was near critical did the bump slip and unload built up strain energy in one large event. Thus, a sufficiently prominent bump acted as a barrier (energy sink) when it was far from critically stressed and as an asperity (energy source) when it was near critically stressed. Similar to an earthquake gate, the bump never acted as a permanent barrier. In the experiments, we resolve the above rupture interactions with a bump as separate rupture phases; however, when observed through the lens of seismology, it may appear as one continuous rupture that speeds up and slows down. The complicated rupture‐bump interactions also produced enhanced high frequency seismic waves recorded with piezoelectric sensors.

Improvement to stochastic tsunami hazard analysis of megathrust earthquakes for western Makran subduction zone

The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) is one of the world's most tsunami-prone regions. In the present study, tsunami hazards associated with potential MSZ earthquakes are evaluated using stochastic earthquake rupture modeling, which allows for the incorporation of uncertainties related to slip heterogeneity. Along the western segment of the MSZ, where tsunami hazard studies have received less attention, megathrust earthquakes with moment magnitudes of Mw 8.5, 8.7, and 8.9 are considered. The source parameters of 600 stochastic earthquake scenarios are calculated using the scaling relationships of Goda et al. (2016), which represent significant improvements over previous scaling relationships by taking into account the uncertainty of multiple source parameters and the coverage of a wide range of earthquake magnitudes. In order to simulate tsunami propagation and inundation, the nonlinear shallow water equations are used in four-level nested grid model domains .According to the calculated slip fields, the seismic source characteristics provided by stochastic source models significantly change within the earthquakes scenarios with identical magnitudes and may completely differ from the results of traditional uniform-slip source models. The results of the 600 Monte Carlo tsunami simulations demonstrate that even extremely large earthquakes in the west MSZ do not lead to significant tsunamis along the eastern coastal regions of Makran. The average maximum wave heights of 8, 10, and 17 m along the western Makran coasts, which correspond to the Mw 8.5, 8.7, and 8.9 scenarios, respectively, emphasize the severe potential threat of a possible tsunamigenic event in the west of the MSZ to the Iranian coasts. In addition, the significant difference between the maximum wave heights of the 10th and 90th percentiles for each scenario demonstrates the large variability of tsunami heights resulting from uncertainties associated with stochastic seismic source modeling. Thus, it can be concluded that the tsunami hazard parameters estimated by simple uniform-slip source models need to be revised in future tsunami risk assessment studies.

3D Crustal Structure of the Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya: Signatures of Mid‐Crustal Ramp and Lesser Himalayan Duplex

AbstractThe NW Himalayan “seismic gap” lies between the 1905 and 2005 earthquake rupture zones and straddles the meisoseismal zone of the 1555‐Kashmir earthquake. Sufficient elastic strain has now accumulated across this region to drive a mega‐thrust earthquake. We model the crustal structure and geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) using Jammu and Kashmir Seismological NETwork data. P‐wave receiver‐function spatial and common‐conversion‐point (CCP) stacks, and joint inversion with Rayleigh‐wave group‐velocities are used to construct 3D Vs model of the region. This model reveals increasing crustal thickness from foreland‐to‐hinterland, and an under‐thrust Indian crust beneath NW Himalaya. The Moho is at ∼45 km depth beneath Sub‐Himalaya deepening to ∼70 km beneath Higher‐to‐Tethyan Himalaya with a gentle NE dip. The MHT forms a low‐velocity layer and has a flat–ramp geometry. The flat segment is beneath Sub‐to‐Lesser Himalaya at 6–10 km depth, and dips ∼4°. The mid‐crustal (frontal) ramp is beneath Kishtwar Higher‐Himalaya and Zanskar Range at 10–16 km depth, and dips ∼13–17°. Crustal structure varies along‐arc between east (Kishtwar) and west (Kashmir Valley) segments. A Lesser Himalayan duplex (LHD) lies beneath the Kishtwar Window and is bound by MHT and Main Central Thrust. The LHD high‐angle imbricate structures are illuminated by moderate seismicity. Beneath Kashmir Valley, the underthrust crust is ∼10 km thicker, has higher crustal Vs, and a shallower MHT at ∼10 km depth. The westward shallowing of MHT occurs through a lateral ramp. Aftershocks of the 2013‐Kishtwar earthquake concentrate on the frontal–lateral ramp intersection and mark the MHT down‐dip locked‐to‐creep transition.

New Zealand Fault-Rupture Depth Model v.1.0: A Provisional Estimate of the Maximum Depth of Seismic Rupture on New Zealand’s Active Faults

ABSTRACT We summarize estimates of the maximum rupture depth on New Zealand’s active faults (“New Zealand Fault-Rupture Depth Model v.1.0”), as used in the New Zealand Community Fault Model v1.0 and as a constraint for the latest revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022). Rupture depth estimates are based on a combination of two separate model approaches (using different methods and datasets). The first approach uses regional seismicity distribution from a relocated earthquake catalog to calculate the 90% seismicity cutoff depth (D90), representing the seismogenic depth limit. This is multiplied by an overshoot factor representing the dynamic propagation of rupture into the conditional stability zone, and accounting for the difference between regional seismicity depths and the frictional properties of a mature fault zone to arrive at a seismic estimate of the maximum rupture depth. The second approach uses surface heat flow and rock type to compute depths that correspond to the thermal limits of frictional instabilities on seismogenic faults. To arrive at a thermally-based maximum rupture depth, these thermal limits are also multiplied by an overshoot factor. Both the models have depth cutoffs at the Moho and/or subducting slabs. Results indicate the maximum rupture depths between 8 (Taupō volcanic zone) and >30 km (e.g., southwest North Island), strongly correlated with regional thermal gradients. The depths derived from the two methods show broad agreement for most of the North Island and some differences in the South Island. A combined model using weighting based on relative uncertainties is derived and validated using constraints from hypocenter and slip model depths from recent well-instrumented earthquakes. We discuss modifications to the maximum rupture depths estimated here that were undertaken for application within the NZ NSHM 2022. Our research demonstrates the utility of combining seismicity cutoff and thermal stability estimates to assess the down-dip dimensions of future earthquake ruptures.

Recognition of the causative fault of the 2017 MW 4.9 Malard (Tehran, Iran) earthquake from directivity analysis of the recorded ground motions

On December 20, 2017, a light shallow earthquake (Mw 4.9) with a purely strike-slip mechanism occurred on a hidden unknown fault, 30 km west of the city of Tehran. The purpose of this study is to determine the causative fault plane based on the directivity effect that was observed during this shallow crustal depth earthquake, referred to as the Malard earthquake. This was achieved by using data from 96 seismic and accelerometer stations, and employing a variety of methods.For the analysis of the directivity effect, we employed methods including empirical Green's function deconvolution in the frequency domain, inversion of corrected ground motions based on empirical models, and comparison of relative peak ground acceleration and velocity between the mainshock and the largest aftershock. All approaches indicate that the Malard earthquake occurred on a previously unknown fault with a strike of 71°, a steep southward dip, and a confirmed left-lateral strike-slip mechanism, as evidenced by the analysis of aftershock distribution. The earthquake exhibited a strong directivity effect, with rupture propagating unilaterally from the hypocenter to the southwest at a velocity of 2.5 km/s.In addition to enhancing our understanding of active earthquake sources in the densely populated areas of Iran, the findings of this study will also contribute to future earthquake risk assessments in the Tehran region. However, it's important to note that Tehran was situated in the backward zone of the Malard earthquake rupture, where the least ground motion was recorded. Future earthquakes on this fault may exhibit different propagation patterns, toward the city. The determination of a preferred propagation direction can only be achieved probabilistically through the study of a substantial number of earthquakes in the region. The absence of recorded ground motion data will lead to significant uncertainty in predicting the propagation direction of future earthquakes, which must be taken into consideration during hazard analysis.

The 2022 MW 6.0 Gölyaka–Düzce earthquake: an example of a medium-sized earthquake in a fault zone early in its seismic cycle

Abstract. On 23 November 2022, a MW 6.0 earthquake occurred in the direct vicinity of the MW 7.1 Düzce earthquake that ruptured a portion of the North Anatolian Fault in 1999. The Mw 6.0 event was attributed to a small portion of the Karadere fault off the main North Anatolian Fault that did not rupture during the 1999 sequence. We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the MW 6.0 Gölyaka–Düzce seismic sequence at various scales and resolve the source properties of the mainshock. Modeling the decade-long evolution of the background seismicity of the Karadere fault employing an Epistemic Type Aftershock Sequence model shows that this fault was almost seismically inactive before 1999, while a progressive increase in seismic activity is observed from 2000 onwards. A newly generated high-resolution seismicity catalog from 1 month before the mainshock until 6 d after was created using artificial-intelligence-aided techniques and shows only a few events occurring within the rupture area within the previous month, no spatiotemporal localization process and a lack of immediate foreshocks preceding the rupture. The aftershock hypocenter distribution suggests the activation of both the Karadere fault, which ruptured in this earthquake, and the Düzce fault that ruptured in 1999. First results on the source parameters and the duration of the first P-wave pulse from the mainshock suggest that the mainshock propagated eastwards, which is in agreement with predictions from a bimaterial interface model. The MW 6.0 Gölyaka–Düzce event represents a good example of an earthquake rupture with damaging potential within a fault zone that is in a relatively early stage of the seismic cycle.

Multiple segmentation and seismogenic evolution of the 6th February 2023 (Mw 7.8 and 7.7) consecutive earthquake ruptures and aftershock deformation in the Maras triple junction region of SE-Anatolia, Turkey

On 6th February 2023 (UTC), two consecutive and catastrophic earthquakes with moment magnitudes (Mw) 7.8 and 7.7 struck the Maras Triple Junction (MTJ) region in SE Anatolia along with dozens of aftershocks, causing numerous casualties and significant building damage, and generating the most complex and longest surface ruptures ever observed in Turkey. The main driving mechanisms of this complex double event are still unresolved and remain controversial, even though they are likely linked with conventional fault activations, recurrence intervals and seismic gaps. Here, the aim was to gain insight into the source regimes and rupture processes of both events and their relationship with resolved fault focal solutions for the observed aftershocks, and to present an interpretation that accounts for the most puzzling aspects of the fault rupture models. In line with this, the co-seismic slip distributions of these two events were examined by joint analyses of centroid moment tensor (CMT) and finite-fault source inversions using regional and teleseismic broadband observations. Inversion results indicate that both earthquakes were left-lateral strike-slip events, and the main ruptures extended mainly from close to NNE to SSW and E to W, with maximum slips of ∼6.5–10 m, mostly confined to a shallow depth range of ≤ ∼10–15 km and extending to the surface, indicating bilateral source processes with an average rupture velocity of ∼3.5–5.5 km/s. The estimated total seismic moment range was 4.94–8.22 × 1020 N m, associated with ∼352–152 km long (along strike) and ∼ 25 km wide (along dip) fault planes at focal depth of ∼10 km. Regional CMT results indicate nearly pure normal-slip and left-lateral normal oblique-slip focal mechanisms and shallow centroid depths (≤ ∼15 km) for the early aftershock distribution that are obviously complementary with the co-seismic bilateral rupture propagations. This result highlights that double pull-apart branching of focal mechanisms for aftershock occurrence implies interacting fault ruptures embedded in the MTJ area, where two sub−/supershear-rupturing faults meet, thus explaining multiple segmentation and seismogenic evolutions of two interrelated mainshocks, i.e. “triple junction earthquakes”. The results reveal that the MTJ tends to migrate to the SSW and likely drives the SSW-stepping of the left-lateral strike-slip shear (∼136 km). This accounts for the peak slips, long co-seismic fault ruptures and the associated faulting styles. Hence, the co-seismic faulting apparently distributed across the MTJ may reflect triple junction migration, and thus large extension at the core of the Anatolian-Arabian plates, leading to very high seismic hazard in similar junction regions of the country.

Rupture process of the January 8, 2022, Menyuan M 6.9 earthquake

After the occurrence of destructively strong earthquakes, rapid acquisition of the source rupture process can provide important reference information for post-earthquake disaster relief and aftershock trend determination. An M 6.9 earthquake occurred in Menyuan County, Qinghai Province on January 8, 2022. The epicenter is located in the seismic gap in the middle section of the Haiyuan fault belt. Such a typical strong earthquake was taken as an example to investigate the rupture process of strong earthquakes. Three days after the earthquake, the InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) coseismic deformation field was obtained by Sentinel radar, indicating that the surface ruptured obviously. The southern block of the earthquake faces towards the satellite about 95 ​cm along the LOS (line of sight) direction, and the northern block is away from the satellite by ​∼ ​74 ​cm, consistent with the characteristic of left-lateral strike-slip motion. In this study, InSAR coseismic deformation data and far-field waveform data were used to jointly invert the earthquake rupture process, and a four-segment finite fault model was constructed by referring to the surface deformation. The inversion results show that the focal depth of the Menyuan earthquake is about 7 ​km, and the strike of the seismogenic fault is 89.0°, 104.0°, 119.0° and 131.0° from west to east, respectively. It is a high-dip left-lateral strike-slip earthquake event lasting about 14 ​s. The rupture propagation mode is a bilateral extension. The maximum slip along the fault is about 380 ​cm, and the seismic moment magnitude is 6.7. The surface rupture length is about 24 ​km, which is consistent with that measured in the field survey. The detailed seismic source model can provide basic data for the aftershock trend determination and seismic risk analysis of the adjacent active faults.

Simulation‐based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near‐field

AbstractRecent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional‐scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault‐to‐structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near‐fault, site‐specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high‐performance regional‐scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike‐slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three‐story (short period) and forty‐story (long period) steel moment‐resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter‐story drift ratio for a range of near‐fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three‐story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty‐story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.