Potential Earthquake Research Articles

Development of national and local exposure models of residential structures in Chile

Large-scale impacts from natural disasters suffered by society encourage researchers and public agencies to develop methods to evaluate, mitigate, respond, and recover from these events. A key aspect for the calculation of the potential earthquake losses is to properly describe the characteristics and value of assets exposed to seismic hazard. This article describes a methodology to develop an exposure model at a census-block resolution for residential structures in Chile using statistical data. The methodology is based on three steps: (1) obtaining dwelling count, construction material and location from census data, (2) defining classification rules for dwellings associated with houses and apartment buildings, and (3) assigning structural typologies and replacement cost. The resulting exposure model consists of a database with the number of residential structures classified into 18 structural typologies at each census block and the associated replacement cost. A total of 4,259,804 residential structures were identified in the national exposure model. Overall, clay brick and concrete block masonry account for 53.5 % of the structures of the country followed by timber (33.7 %), reinforced concrete (8.1 %), and adobe (4.6 %). Also, a methodology using remote digital survey techniques is proposed and used to obtain local exposure models for the cities of Iquique, Rancagua, and Osorno. The results of the national exposure model are compared with the local exposure models. An important feature of the proposed methodologies is that the building stock is classified into structural typologies, which is a key aspect for conducting seismic risk assessment. The methodologies used to construct the national and local exposure models may be extrapolated to other countries by adjusting the classification rules. The exposure models that were constructed represent an important input for risk calculations, by improving the technical capabilities for seismic risk management of the country.

Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region

We estimate the energetic and spatial characteristics of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region using a variety of seismic and statistical parameters, as a first step in a detailed investigation of regional seismic hazard. We divide the region into five seismotectonic regions, comprising the most important tectonic domains in the studied area: the Moroccan Meseta, the Rif, the Tell, the High Plateau, and the Atlas. Characteristic seismic hazard parameters, including the Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean seismic activity rate, and maximum possible earthquake magnitude, were computed using an extension of the Aki–Utsu procedure for incomplete earthquake catalogs for each domain, based on recent earthquake catalogs compiled for northern Morocco and northern Algeria. Gutenberg–Richter b-values for each zone were initially estimated using the approach of Weichert (Bull Seismol Soc Am 70:1337–1346, 1980): the estimated b-values are 1.04 ± 0.04, 0.93 ± 0.10, 0.72 ± 0.03, 0.87 ± 0.02, and 0.77 ± 0.02 for the Atlas, Meseta, High Plateau, Rif, and Tell seismogenic zones, respectively. The fractal dimension D 2 was also estimated for each zone. From the ratio D 2/b, it appears that the Tell and Rif zones, with ratios of 2.09 and 2.12, respectively, have the highest potential earthquake hazard in the region. The Gutenberg–Richter relationship analysis allows us to derive that in the Tell and Rif, the number of earthquake with magnitude above Mw 4.0, since 1925 normalized to decade and to square cell with 100-km sides is equal to 2.6 and 1.91, respectively. This study provides the first detailed information about the potential seismicity of these large domains, including maximum regional magnitudes, characteristics of spatial clustering, and distribution of seismic energy release.

Crystalline Rock as a Repository for Swedish Spent Nuclear Fuel

The granitic bedrock at Forsmark (Sweden) provides a well suited host rock for a geological repository in which to safely dispose of spent nuclear fuel. The properties of the host rock have been thoroughly investigated through boreholes from the surface. This repository will be at a depth of approximately 500 m where the spent nuclear fuel will be contained in 6,000 copper canisters able to withstand potential earthquakes and glaciation events. The canisters will be surrounded by a bentonite clay buffer to prevent canister corrosion by groundwater. The safety assessment in support of the site's license application suggests that almost all of the canisters will remain tight even one million years into the future.

Normalized rupture potential for small and large earthquakes along the Pacific Plate off Japan

AbstractWe combine temporal variability in local seismic activity rates and size distributions to estimate the evolution of a Gutenberg‐Richter‐based metric, the normalized rupture potential (NRP), comparing differences between smaller and larger earthquakes. For the Pacific Plate off Japan, we study both complex spatial patterns and how they evolve over the last 18 years, and more detailed temporal characteristics in a simplified spatial selection, i.e., inside and outside the high‐slip zone of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake. We resolve significant changes, in particular an immediate NRP increase for large events prior to the Tohoku event in the subsequent high‐slip patch, a very rapid decrease inside this high‐stress‐release area coupled with a lasting increase of NRP in the immediate surroundings. Even in the center of the Tohoku rupture, the NRP for large magnitudes has not dropped below the 12 year average and is not significantly different from conditions a decade before the M9 event.

An Ensemble Approach for Improved Short-to-Intermediate-Term Seismic Potential Evaluation

Pattern informatics (PI), load/unload response ratio (LURR), state vector (SV), and accelerating moment release (AMR) are four previously unrelated subjects, which are sensitive, in varying ways, to the earthquake’s source. Previous studies have indicated that the spatial extent of the stress perturbation caused by an earthquake scales with the moment of the event, allowing us to combine these methods for seismic hazard evaluation. The longrange earthquake forecasting method PI is applied to search for the seismic hotspots and identify the areas where large earthquake could be expected. And the LURR and SV methods are adopted to assess short-to-intermediate-term seismic potential in each of the critical regions derived from the PI hotspots, while the AMR method is used to provide us with asymptotic estimates of time and magnitude of the potential earthquakes. This new approach, by combining the LURR, SV and AMR methods with the choice of identified area of PI hotspots, is devised to augment current techniques for seismic hazard estimation. Using the approach, we tested the strong earthquakes occurred in Yunnan–Sichuan region, China between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2014. We found that most of the large earthquakes, especially the earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6.0 occurred in the seismic hazard regions predicted. Similar results have been obtained in the prediction of annual earthquake tendency in Chinese mainland in 2014 and 2015. The studies evidenced that the ensemble approach could be a useful tool to detect short-to-intermediate-term precursory information of future large earthquakes.

Tectonic stress accumulation in Bohai–Zhangjiakou Seismotectonic Zone based on 3D visco-elastic modelling

Future earthquake potential in the Bohai–Zhangjiakou Seismotectonic Zone (BZSZ) in North China deserves close attention. Tectonic stress accumulation state is an important indicator for earthquakes; therefore, this study aims to analyse the stress accumulation state in the BZSZ via three-dimensional visco-elastic numerical modelling. The results reveal that the maximum shear stress in the BZSZ increases gradually as the depth increases, and the stress range is wider in the lower layer. In the upper layer, the maximum shear stress is high in the Zhangjiakou area, whereas in the lower layer, relatively high values occur in the Penglai–Yantai area, which may be affected by the depth of the Moho surface. Besides, weak fault zones will be easily fractured when the maximum shear stress is not sufficiently high due to their low strengths, resulting in earthquakes. Therefore, based on the modelling results, the upper layer of the Zhangjiakou area and the lower layer of the Penglai–Yantai area in the BZSZ in North China are more likely to experience earthquakes.

Space Geodetic Observations and Modeling of 2016 Mw 5.9 Menyuan Earthquake: Implications on Seismogenic Tectonic Motion

Determining the relationship between crustal movement and faulting in thrust belts is essential for understanding the growth of geological structures and addressing the proposed models of a potential earthquake hazard. A Mw 5.9 earthquake occurred on 21 January 2016 in Menyuan, NE Qinghai Tibetan plateau. We combined satellite interferometry from Sentinel-1A Terrain Observation with Progressive Scans (TOPS) images, historical earthquake records, aftershock relocations and geological data to determine fault seismogenic structural geometry and its relationship with the Lenglongling faults. The results indicate that the reverse slip of the 2016 earthquake is distributed on a southwest dipping shovel-shaped fault segment. The main shock rupture was initiated at the deeper part of the fault plane. The focal mechanism of the 2016 earthquake is quite different from that of a previous Ms 6.5 earthquake which occurred in 1986. Both earthquakes occurred at the two ends of a secondary fault. Joint analysis of the 1986 and 2016 earthquakes and aftershocks distribution of the 2016 event reveals an intense connection with the tectonic deformation of the Lenglongling faults. Both earthquakes resulted from the left-lateral strike-slip of the Lenglongling fault zone and showed distinct focal mechanism characteristics. Under the shearing influence, the normal component is formed at the releasing bend of the western end of the secondary fault for the left-order alignment of the fault zone, while the thrust component is formed at the restraining bend of the east end for the right-order alignment of the fault zone. Seismic activity of this region suggests that the left-lateral strike-slip of the Lenglongling fault zone plays a significant role in adjustment of the tectonic deformation in the NE Tibetan plateau.

Shake Table Tests of Large-Scale Substandard RC Frames Retrofitted with CFRP Wraps before Earthquakes

AbstractA large number of substandard reinforced concrete (RC) frames exist in potential earthquake regions across the world. These frames are at high risk of collapse during possible strong earthquakes in the future. In order to mitigate the risk, pre-earthquake seismic strengthening of these frames is urgently needed. This paper presents an experimental study on the seismic performance of substandard RC frames strengthened with externally bonded carbon-fiber-reinforced polymers (CFRP) composites using shake table tests. Two 1/2-scale 4-story and 2-bay RC frames were fabricated and tested on a shake table. One specimen was tested first as the control specimen, while the other specimen was retrofitted with CFRP before test. The retrofitting scheme was designed according to the failure mode of the control specimen, and involved CFRP wrapping at and close to the beam-column joints at the lower two stories of the frame. The test results showed that the seismic performance of the substandard RC frame could be...

The 3-D surface deformation, coseismic fault slip and after-slip of the 2010 Mw6.9 Yushu earthquake, Tibet, China

Using SAR interferometry on C band Envisat descending track and L band ALOS ascending track SAR images, respectively, we firstly obtain two coseismic deformation fields and one postseismic deformation of the 2010 Yushu earthquake, Tibet, China. In the meanwhile, we also obtain the azimuthal coseismic deformation of the Yushu event by Multi Aperture Interferometry (MAI) technique. With the 3 components of one-dimensional coseismic InSAR measurements, we resolve the complete 3-dimensional deformation of the 2010 Yushu event, which shows conformity and complexity to left lateral slip mechanism. The horizontal deformation is basically consistent with a sinistral slip event; whereas the vertical displacement does show certain level of complexity, which we argue is indicative of local fault geometry variation. Based on the InSAR data and elastic dislocation assumption, we invert for coseismic fault slip and early after-slip of the Yushu event. Our inversion results show major coseismic left lateral strike slip with only minor thrust component. The after-slip model fills most of the slip gaps left by the coseismic fault slip and finds a complementary slip distribution to the coseismic fault slip, which is a good indicator that future earthquake potential on the Yushu segment has been significantly reduced.

Coulomb stress changes and seismicity in central Taiwan due to the Nantou blind-thrust earthquakes in 2013

Due to the two earthquakes, 27 March 2013 event (ML6.2, namely 0327 event) and 2 June 2013 event (ML6.5, namely 0602 event), occurring at the Nantou area of the central Taiwan, we investigate the relationship between the Coulomb stress changes and the seismicity in the paper. We first employed the refined homomorphic deconvolution method to invert the kinematic source processes of these two earthquakes from the teleseismic data recorded by Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), and then calculated the Coulomb stress changes of these two events. The total durations of the rupture process for the 0327 and 0602 events were 12s and 15s, respectively. The epicenter of the 0602 event and the epicenters of the aftershocks (ML>3) of the 0327 event were concentrated in a region with positive Coulomb stresses caused by the 0327 event. This indicates that the derived source process was available and coincided with physical properties in a manner that strongly suggests that the 0602 event was triggered by the 0327 event. According to the Coulomb stress changes caused by the 0602 event at a depth of 4km and its vertical cross section, most of the aftershocks (ML>3) of the 0602 event were located in a region with positive Coulomb stress changes greater than 0.1bar. In addition, almost all the epicenters of the earthquakes (ML>3) in central Taiwan between July 15, 2013, and January 27, 2015, were located in a region with positive Coulomb stress changes at a depth of 6km contributed by the 0327 and 0602 events. These findings indicate that if the background stress in the central Taiwan is intense high, the Coulomb stress changes contributed by the two events may affect the seismicity of central Taiwan in this period of time, and that a region with extreme positive Coulomb stress changes may be the place in which potential earthquakes will occur in the future. Moreover, the proposed inversion method can derive the proper source model efficiently without any statistical assumptions.

Real-time earthquake monitoring at the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System for tsunami advisories in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Tsunami Early Warning System situated at Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, India, monitors real-time earthquake activity throughout the Indian Ocean to evaluate potential tsunamigenic earthquakes. The functions of the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System earthquake monitoring system include detection, location and determination of the magnitude of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring in the Indian Ocean. The real-time seismic monitoring network comprises 17 broadband Indian seismic stations transmitting real-time earthquake data through VSAT communication to the central receiving stations located at the Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi, and the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, simultaneously for processing and interpretation. In addition to this, earthquake data from around 300 global seismic stations are also received at the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services in near-real-time. Most of these data are provided by IRIS Global Seismographic Network and GEOFON Extended Virtual Network through Internet. The Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services uses SeisComP3 software for auto-location of earthquake parameters (location, magnitude, focal depth and origin time). All earthquakes of Mw >5.0 are auto-located within 5–10 minutes of the occurrence of the earthquake. Since its inception in October 2007 to date, the warning centre has monitored and reported 55 tsunamigenic earthquakes (under-sea and near coast earthquakes of magnitude ⩾6.5) in the Indian Ocean region. Comparison of the earthquake parameters (elapsed time, magnitude, focal depth and location) estimated by the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System with the US Geological Survey suggests that the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System is performing well and has achieved the target set up by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

Coseismic Fault Slip of the September 16, 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel, Chile Earthquake Estimated from InSAR Data

The complete surface deformation of 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel, Chile earthquake is obtained using SAR interferograms obtained for descending and ascending Sentinel-1 orbits. We find that the Illapel event is predominantly thrust, as expected for an earthquake on the interface between the Nazca and South America plates, with a slight right-lateral strike slip component. The maximum thrust-slip and right-lateral strike slip reach 8.3 and 1.5 m, respectively, both located at a depth of 8 km, northwest to the epicenter. The total estimated seismic moment is 3.28 × 1021 N.m, corresponding to a moment magnitude Mw 8.27. In our model, the rupture breaks all the way up to the sea-floor at the trench, which is consistent with the destructive tsunami following the earthquake. We also find the slip distribution correlates closely with previous estimates of interseismic locking distribution. We argue that positive coulomb stress changes caused by the Illapel earthquake may favor earthquakes on the extensional faults in this area. Finally, based on our inferred coseismic slip model and coulomb stress calculation, we envision that the subduction interface that last slipped in the 1922 Mw 8.4 Vallenar earthquake might be near the upper end of its seismic quiescence, and the earthquake potential in this region is urgent.

Earthquake potential and magnitude limits inferred from a geodetic strain-rate model for southern Europe

Earthquake potential and magnitude limits inferred from a geodetic strain-rate model for southern Europe

Path effects and local elastic site amplification: two case studies on Mt Etna (Italy) and Vega Baja (SE Spain)

Local site effects, normally ground motion amplification, represent one of the main components when developing ground motion simulations and play an important role in the potential earthquake damage. In the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project a stochastic finite-fault simulation method was selected for the generation of synthetic ground motion scenarios. This method uses spectral site correction functions to account for site amplification effects. These local effects may undergo significant changes due to the source–receiver configuration (i.e., distance, source depth and ray incidence). This holds in particular for reflection and transmission coefficients which may strongly vary depending on the source–receiver geometry, and may alter the characteristics of the spectral site-correction functions. A strategy is proposed to account for local site effects in the context of the regional geological structure, considering SH-waves propagating in a 1D velocity model. Spectral correction functions are derived by comparing Green’s functions obtained for general velocity models and those more detailed at shallow depths. The developed approach is applied in two of the test areas selected in the project, the Mt Etna in Italy and the Vega Baja in SE Spain. The results show the different behaviour in two environments, i.e., volcanic and tectonic, with different seismicity characteristics, and highlight the importance of performing specific site-effect studies in some regions where standard building code soil factors could have some limitations to evaluate the potential for ground motion amplification.

Fault locking near Istanbul: indication of earthquake potential from InSAR and GPS observations

Fault locking near Istanbul: indication of earthquake potential from InSAR and GPS observations

Earthquake early warning feasibility in the Campania region (southern Italy) and demonstration system for public school buildings

We present the results of a feasibility study of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) for the Campania region (southern Italy) using schools as specific targets. The study considered the seismogenic zones as sources of potential earthquakes for the area, the Italian accelerometric network as the recording network for seismic event occurrence, and the performances of the software platform PRESTo Plus for data analysis and processing. We analyze the distribution of lead-times for all possible threatening seismic sources for each municipality in the region under study by extracting the lead-time value corresponding to the 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles of the distributions. We discuss the results for the 5th percentile in order to analyze the worst-case scenario: in the case of a single site, the lead-time is expected to be larger than this value in the 95 % of the cases. Since the population distribution in Campania is uneven and most of the people live nearby the coast, whilst the most destructive earthquakes occur along the Apennine chain, we can conclude that an efficient EEWS can allow most of the schools in the area to undertake some mitigating actions. The testing of the EEWS was carried out in the high school ITIS ‘E. Majorana’, located at Somma Vesuviana, about 80 km from the seismogenic Irpinia region. For this purpose, the Sentinel, an actuator made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino®), was developed in close cooperation with students and teachers of the school to receive alert messages from the PRESTo Plus platform and warn the school users in case of a seismic event. The EEWS and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.

Relative tectonic activity assessment of the Çameli Basin, Western Anatolia, using geomorphic indices

Western Anatolia is one of the world’s most seismically active regions. A nearly N–S-oriented extension caused the formation of E–W- and NE–SW-trending major grabens, creating the potential for earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 5. The fault segments of the NE-trending Çameli Basin were evaluated using geomorphic indices, common tools for assessment of relative tectonic activity in such areas. Quantitative measurement of geomorphic indices including mountain-front sinuosity (Smf; 1.35–2.39), valley floor width-to-height ratios (Vf; 0.08‒0.37), and hypsometric integral (HI; 0.31–1.05) suggest relatively higher tectonic activity along western and southern part of the basin. Hypsometric curves for all segments of the faults mostly exhibit concave or straight profiles, signifying existence of young mountain fronts in the Çameli Basin. These calculations indicate that the Çameli Basin is tectonically active and, southern/south-western areas of this depression have earthquake potential, consistent with epicentres of recent earthquakes, occurred along some fault segments. Possible reason of this activity seems to be related to the E–W-trending corridor lying between the Gulf of Gökova and south-eastern part of the Çameli Basin, represented by active normal faults. These findings should be valid beyond the Çameli Basin for similar situations along the Isparta Angle’s western margin.

Understanding the potential for tsunami generated by earthquakes on the southern Hikurangi subduction interface

ABSTRACTThe earthquake and tsunami potential of the southern Hikurangi subduction interface has been assessed by reviewing current research in paleoseismology, paleotsunami, geodesy and passive and active source seismology. In addition, new interpretations of seismic lines are presented demonstrating the location and influence of splay faults and a modelling study examines the sensitivity of tsunami in Cook Strait to the southern termination of Hikurangi earthquake ruptures. Key conclusions are: the southern portion of the Hikurangi interface, south of c. 40°S, is currently strongly coupled and experiences great megathrust earthquakes of Mw >8 (some of which may also rupture further north); the downdip limits of strong coupling at southern Hikurangi are outlined by slow slip events and non-volcanic tremor; and the behaviour at the updip limit and the southern termination will be strongly influenced by splay faults. The tsunami impact on Cook Strait is shown to be highly sensitive to how far ruptures extend across Cook Strait.

Structure, late Quaternary slip rate and earthquake potential of marine reverse faults along the North Westland deformation front, New Zealand

ABSTRACTThe North Westland deformation front runs offshore for 320 km between Cape Farewell and Hokitika at a distance of 3–30 km from the coast. From marine seismic reflection profiles integrated with published sediment core and coastal uplift data, we infer late Quaternary activity on six major reverse faults. The principal structures are the Cape Foulwind, Kahurangi and Kongahu faults and the newly named Farewell, Elizabeth and Razorback faults. They include Late Cretaceous and Paleogene rift faults that were reactivated as reverse faults during the late Cenozoic. Best estimates of late Quaternary (<120 ka) slip rates for different faults range from 0.05–0.75 mm a–1. Nine potential earthquake sources are identified, including four segments of the Cape Foulwind Fault. They are of length c. 20–120 km, are potentially capable of producing moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes of Mw 6.7–7.8 and represent a seismic risk to coastal communities. Best estimates of recurrence intervals for individual fault sources range from about 7600 years to 30,400 years, with large uncertainties in slip rates of up to –0.4, +1.0 mm a–1 reflected by the wide range of recurrence intervals.

Does affective forecasting change motivation for disaster preparedness? Motivation one month after a hypothetical earthquake / ¿Influye la predicción afectiva en la motivación para la preparación ante las catástrofes? La motivación un mes después de un terremoto hipotético

The present study examined how disaster preparedness would change after people predicted their affective reactions in the event of a major earthquake. In Study 1, participants (N = 255) completed an assessment of disaster preparedness. One week later, participants predicted their thoughts and feelings if a major earthquake were to strike, and then responded to the motivation measure. Study 2 (N = 129) examined the status of participants’ motivation after one month. The results showed that greater motivation was only seen immediately after affective forecasting, and the same level of motivation was not maintained after one month. When people imagine a potential earthquake the expected negative affective reactions are overestimated. Disaster preparedness allows people to mitigate their future negative affective reactions. In order to avoid these affective reactions, affective forecasters had greater motivation for disaster preparedness.