Earthquake Nucleation Research Articles

Physical Mechanisms of Earthquake Nucleation and Foreshocks: Cascade Triggering, Aseismic Slip, or Fluid Flows?

Physical Mechanisms of Earthquake Nucleation and Foreshocks: Cascade Triggering, Aseismic Slip, or Fluid Flows?

Precision Seismicity of the San Andreas Fault System in Central California: Insights into Active Tectonics and Earthquake Physics

Since the late 1960s, seismicity of the San Andreas Fault system in central California has been under intense observation by U. S. Geological Survey’s Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Designed to provide accurate focal depth control and a low magnitude of catalog completeness, the network maps fault, both large and small across the full breadth of this 400-kilometer-long portion of the plate boundary, including many that are known only from their seismicity. Beginning in 1984, with the advent of routine digital recording, new opportunities were created to significantly enhance the spatial resolution of seismicity. This led to the co-evolution of method that take full advantage of digital waveforms and new insights into the nature of seismicity and faults. Collectively referred to as precision seismicity, discoveries included repeating earthquakes and highly organized and stable distributions of seismicity on major faults. Long term observation of seismicity before and after the six largest earthquakes over the last half-century underscore the outstanding challenges for earthquake predictability and theories of earthquake nucleation.

Off-fault deformation feedback and strain localization precursor during laboratory earthquakes

Recent large-scale seismological observations have shown that off-fault strain localization and foreshock migration could serve as an early warning of an impending earthquake. However, this process is still largely unknown. In this study, state-of-the-art friction experiments were conducted in a oil-confined biaxial shear apparatus to investigate the link between stick-slip nucleation and off-fault deformation. Our findings indicate that there is a direct link between stick-slip nucleation and off-fault deformation, provided that the fault is conditionally unstable (a − b < 0). Inelastic off-fault deformation may trigger unstable slip by decreasing the stiffness of the surrounding rock volume, which favors earthquake nucleation. Additionally, the study presents laboratory observation of precursory strain localization around a fault during stick-slip cycles. These findings suggest that volumetric deformation processes could be a main factor in the nucleation of large ruptures and strain localization could be a reliable harbinger of large earthquakes.

Earthquake Sequence Simulation and Hazard Analysis in the Tianshan Orogenic Belt and Adjacent Areas

ABSTRACT The Tianshan orogenic belt is located in central Eurasia. Its tectonic deformation and seismicity are primarily influenced by the far-field effect of the India–Eurasia collision. It is one of the regions with the most intensive seismicity in China. Understanding the mechanisms of earthquake nucleation in this region is a hot topic in the seismicity community. The numerical simulation of earthquake sequences is an efficient measure for comprehensively exploring earthquake occurrence characteristics, tectonic loading, and subsequence patterns. It is also an important method for predicting and mitigating earthquake disasters. This study utilized a finite-element model to investigate the evolution of regional historical earthquakes via the split-node method. Coulomb failure stress analyses from interactions of simulated historical earthquakes since 1900 indicate that the Taxkorgan fault may be prone to the next significant earthquake event.

Stick-to-slip transition characterized by nucleation and emission of dislocations and the implications in earthquake nucleation

Stick-slip friction exists widely in our life especially the occurrence of large earthquakes, but people cannot predict and control by a limited understanding of the mechanisms involved. In the present work, the whole process of stick-to-slip transition has been investigated through digital image correlation and acoustic emission. Two phases, namely, the nucleation and abrupt rupture phases have been discovered during the transition that are characterized well by nucleation and transient emission of dislocations, which may support the combination of pre-slip and cascade-up models. Based on the findings simple yet analytical expressions then have been obtained to predict the earthquake cycles consistent with available simulations and practical observations.

The Evolution Process between the Earthquake Swarm Beneath the Noto Peninsula, Central Japan and the 2024 M 7.6 Noto Hanto Earthquake Sequence

Several physical mechanisms of earthquake nucleation, such as pre-slip, cascade triggering, aseismic slip, and fluid-driven models, have been proposed. However, it is still not clear which model plays the most important role in driving foreshocks and mainshock nucleation for given cases. In this study, we focus on the relationship between an intensive earthquake swarm that started beneath the Noto Peninsula in Central Japan since November 2020 and the nucleation of the 2024 M7.6 Noto Hanto earthquake. We relocate earthquakes listed in the standard Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalog since 2018 with the double-different relocation method. Relocated seismicity revealed that the 2024 M7.6 mainshock likely ruptured a thrust fault above a parallel fault where the M6.5 Suzu earthquake occurred in May 2023. We find possible along-strike and along-dip expansion of seismicity in the first few months at the beginning of the swarm sequence, while no obvious migration pattern in the last few days before the M7.6 mainshock was observed. Several smaller events occurred in between the M5.5 and M4.6 foreshocks that occurred about 4 and 2 minutes before the M7.6 mainshock. The Coulomb stress changes from the M5.5 foreshock were negative at the hypocenter of the M7.6 mainshock, which is inconsistent with a simple cascade triggering model. Moreover, an M5.9 foreshock was identified in the JMA catalog 14 s before the mainshock. Results from back-projection of high-frequency teleseismic P waves show a prolonged initial rupture process near the mainshock hypocenter lasting for ∼25 seconds, before propagating bi-laterally outward. Our results suggest a complex evolution process linking the earthquake swarm to nucleation of the M7.6 mainshock at a region of complex structures associated with the bend of a mapped large-scale reverse fault. A combination of fluid migration, aseismic slip and elastic stress triggering likely work in concert to drive both the prolonged earthquake swarm and the nucleation of the M7.6 mainshock.

Dynamic rupture modeling in a complex fault zone with distributed and localized damage

Active fault zones have complex structural and geometric features that are expected to affect earthquake nucleation, rupture propagation with shear and volumetric deformation, and arrest. Earthquakes, in turn, dynamically activate co-seismic off-fault damage that may be both distributed and localized, affecting fault zone geometry and rheology, and further influencing post-seismic deformation and subsequent earthquake sequences. Understanding this co-evolution of fault zones and earthquakes is a fundamental challenge in computational rupture dynamics with consequential implications for earthquake physics, seismic hazard and risk. Here, we implement a continuum damage-breakage (CDB) rheology model in our MOOSE-FARMS dynamic rupture simulator to investigate the interplay between bulk damage and fault motion on the evolution of dynamic rupture, energy partitioning, and ground motion characteristics. We demonstrate several effects of damage (accounting for distributed cracking) and breakage (accounting for granulation) on rupture dynamics in the context of two prototype problems addressed currently in the 2D plane-strain setting: (1) a single planar fault and (2) a fracture network. We quantify the spatio-temporal reduction in wave speeds associated with dynamic ruptures in each of these cases and track the evolution of the original fault zone geometry. The results highlight the growth and coalescence of localization bands as well as competition between localized slip on the pre-existing faults vs. inelastic deformation in the bulk. We analyze the differences between off-fault dissipation through damage-breakage vs. plasticity and show that damage-induced softening increases the slip and slip rate, suggesting enhanced energy radiation and reduced energy dissipation. These results have important implications for long-standing problems in earthquake and fault physics as well as near-fault seismic hazard, and they motivate continuing towards 3D simulations and detailed near-fault observations to uncover the processes occurring in earthquake rupture zones.

Automatic relocation of intermediate-depth earthquakes using adaptive teleseismic arrays

SUMMARY Intermediate-depth earthquakes, accommodating intraslab deformation, typically occur within subduction zone settings at depths between 60–300 km. These events are in a unique position to inform us about the geodynamics of the subducting slab, specifically the geometry of the slab and the stress state of the host material. Improvements in the density and quality of recorded seismic data enhance our ability to determine precise locations of intermediate-depth earthquakes, in order to establish connections between event nucleation and the tectonic setting. Depth phases (near-source surface reflections, e.g. pP and sP) are crucial for the accurate determination of earthquake source depth using global seismic data. However, they suffer from poor signal-to-noise ratios in the P wave coda. This reduces the ability to systematically measure differential traveltimes to the direct P arrival, particularly for the frequent lower magnitude seismicity which highlights considerable seismogenic regions of the subducted slabs. To address this limitation, we have developed an automated approach to group globally distributed stations at teleseismic distances into ad-hoc arrays with apertures of 2.5$^\circ$, before optimizing and applying phase-weighted beamforming techniques to each array. Resultant vespagrams allow automated picking algorithms to determine differential arrival times between the depth phases and their corresponding direct P arrival. Using these differential times we can then determine the depths of earthquakes, which in turn can be used to create a catalogue of relocated events. This will allow new comparisons and insights into the governing controls on the distribution of earthquakes in subducted slabs. We demonstrate this method by relocating intermediate-depth events associated with northern Chile and the Peruvian flat slab regions of the subducting Nazca plate. The relocated Chilean catalogue contains comparable event depths to an established catalogue, calculated using a semi-automated global methodology, which serves to validate our fully automatic methodology. The new Peruvian catalogue we generate indicates three broad zones of seismicity approximately between latitudes 1–7$^\circ$S, 7–13$^\circ$S and 13–19$^\circ$S. These align with flat to steep slab dip transitions and the previously identified Pucallpa Nest. We also find a regionally deeper slab top than indicated by recent slab models, with intraslab events concentrated at points where the slab bends, suggesting a link between slab flexure and intermediate-depth earthquake nucleation.

A Benchmarking Method to Rank the Performance of Physics-Based Earthquake Simulations

Abstract Physics-based earthquake simulators are an increasingly popular modeling tool in earthquake forecasting for seismic hazard as well as fault rupture behavior studies. Their popularity comes from their ability to overcome completeness limitations of real catalogs, and also because they allow reproducing complex fault rupture and interaction patterns via modeling the physical processes involved in earthquake nucleation and propagation. One important challenge of these models revolves around selecting the physical input parameters that will yield the better similarity to earthquake relationships observed in nature, for instance, the frictional parameters of the rate-and-state law—a and b—or the initial normal and shear stresses. Because of the scarcity of empirical data, such input parameters are often selected by trial–error exploration and predominantly manual model performance analyses, which can overall be time consuming. We present a new benchmarking approach to analyze and rank the relative performance of simultaneous earthquake simulation catalogs by quantitatively scoring their combined fit to three reference function types: (1) earthquake-scaling relationships, (2) the shape of the magnitude–frequency distributions, and (3) the rates of the surface ruptures from paleoseismology or paleoearthquake occurrences. The approach provides an effective and potentially more efficient approximation to easily identify the models and input parameter combinations that fit more closely to earthquake relations and behavior. The approach also facilitates the exhaustive analysis of many input parameter combinations, identifying systematic correlations between parameters and model outputs that can potentially improve the overall understanding of the physics-based models. Finally, we demonstrate how the method results agree with the published findings in other earthquake simulation evaluations, a fact that reinforces its overall usefulness. The model ranking outputs can be useful for subsequent analyses, particularly in seismic hazard applications, such as the selection of appropriate earthquake occurrence rate models and their weighting for a logic tree.

The Frictional‐Viscous Transition in Experimentally Deformed Granitoid Fault Gouge

AbstractIn crustal faults dominated by granitoid gouges, the frictional‐viscous transition marks a significant change in strength constraining the lower depth limit of the seismogenic zone. Dissolution‐precipitation creep (DPC) may play an important role in initiating this transition, especially within polymineralic materials. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent DPC contributes to the weakening of granitoid gouge materials at the transition. Here we conducted sliding experiments on wet granitoid gouges to large displacement (15 mm), at an effective normal stress and pore fluid pressure of 100 MPa, at temperatures of 20–650°C, and at sliding velocities of 0.1–100 μm/s, which are relevant for earthquake nucleation. Gouge shear strengths were generally ∼75 MPa even at temperatures up to 650°C and at velocities &gt;1 μm/s. At velocities ≤1 μm/s, strengths decreased at temperatures ≥450°C, reaching a minimum of 37 MPa at the highest temperature and lowest velocity condition. Microstructural observations showed that, as the gouges weakened, the strain localized into thin, dense, and ultrafine‐grained (≤1 μm) principal slip zones, where nanopores were located along grain contacts and contained minute biotite‐quartz‐feldspar precipitates. The stress sensitivity exponent n decreased from a large number at 20°C to ∼2.2 at 650°C at the lowest velocities. These findings suggest that high temperature, slow velocity and small grain sizes promote DPC‐accommodated granular flow over cataclastic frictional granular flow, leading to the observed weakening and strain localization. Field observations together with extrapolation suggest that DPC‐induced weakening occurs at depths of 7–20 km depending on geothermal gradient.

Crustal stress buildup/relaxation and pore pressure in preparation and sequential brittle-shear fault rupture — Implications for a general theory of earthquake nucleation

Compelling geoscience evidence has heightened the appreciation of abnormal (suprahydrostatic, sub/quasi/supralithostatic) pore pressure and multimode (brittle-shear) fault rupture leading to seismicity. However, preparation and rupture nucleation are yet to be adequately constrained and quantitatively modeled. This challenges crucial schemes, notably physics-based earthquake forecasting/prediction. In this multidisciplinary study, the transitions and associated critical points linking the preexisting fluid overpressure in the fault patches, temporal crustal stress, and sequential brittle-shear fault failure were considered. In preparation, tectonic loading was accompanied by processes such as off-fault yielding, permeability enhancement, and foreshocks that facilitate local/regional stress relaxation. Subsequent equalization of stress and the preexisting local overpressure triggers hydraulic fracturing that destabilizes major asperities. Almost instant shear failure follows with the spatially varying rupture velocity/intensity of the frictional slip because of localized asperity stress and syn-slip fluid-/melt-driven fracturing/dilation and lubrication. Based on the aforementioned critical points, quantitative modeling associated stress drop with the evolution of the stress and pore pressure. Equations for the time to onset of stress relaxation and time to rupture were derived using fluid flow and viscoelastic models. The seismic moment was estimated with classical seismological relations after modifications accounting for the smaller surface area during frictional slip. For retrospective testing, two cases of induced seismicity (2016 Fairview, Oklahoma, USA, and 2017 Pohang, South Korea) and multiple cases of natural seismicity (including the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, Japan) were considered. The replication of triggering mechanisms, source properties, and time to rupture suggested that stress temporal relaxation and triggered anomalies (STRATA) encompass fundamental hydromechanical processes in seismogenesis. The setting and scale invariance of STRATA suggest it might be a general theory of earthquake nucleation. Based on the identified preparatory processes/retrospective validations, a physics-based earthquake forecasting/prediction scheme was developed. The nurseries/hypocenters of impending earthquakes are identified through the simultaneous consideration of locally preexisting fluid overpressure and spatiotemporal analysis of stress relaxation. Event size and rupture timing are estimated with the derived relations herein.

Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratio

The sub-instability refers to a stress state that exists between the maximum stress the rock can withstand and its final failure. This stress state should be an indicator of impending large earthquakes, as it occurs in the final stage of earthquake nucleation. We apply the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method to explore sub-instability in the source media before large earthquakes. The earthquake-related observation data such as the groundwater, crustal deformation, electromagnetism and so on were adopted as data input. The load and unload phases at each observation station are discriminated by the change of Coulomb failure stress caused by earth tides along the tectonically optimal sliding direction. Retrospective studies of this approach on the 2020 Mw6.0 Jiashi, Xinjiang, 2022 Mw6.6 Menyuan, Qinghai, and Mw6.6 Luding, Sichuan earthquakes show that the LURR time series derived from the observation stations near the epicenter exceed 2 standard deviations of the mean within several days to years before the mainshocks. Additionally, as the time of mainshock approaches, the distance between the stations detecting LURR anomaly and epicenter decreases. The LURR anomalies indicate the presence of sub-instability prior to a large earthquake, and their spatio-temporal evolution may suggest the weakening processes in the source media.

Earthquake Detectability and Depth Resolution with Dense Arrays in Long Beach, California: Further Evidence for Upper-Mantle Seismicity within a Continental Setting

Abstract The Newport–Inglewood fault (NIF) is a slowly deforming fault cutting through a thin continental crust with a normal geothermal; yet it hosts some of the deepest earthquakes in southern California. The nucleation of deep earthquakes in such a continental setting is not well understood. Moreover, the deep seismogenic zone implies that the maximum NIF earthquake magnitude may be larger than expected. Here, we quantify the resolution of the Long Beach (LB) and the Extended Long Beach (ELB) dense arrays used to study deep NIF seismicity. Previous study of the regional catalog and of downward-continued LB array data found NIF seismicity extending into the upper mantle beneath LB. Later studies, which analyzed the ELB raw data, found little evidence for such deep events. To resolve this inconsistency, we quantify the array’s microearthquake detectability and resolution power via analysis of pre- and postdownward migrated LB seismograms and benchmark tests. Downward migration focuses energy onto the source region and deamplifies the surface noise, thus significantly improving detectability and resolution. The detectability is also improved with the increase in the array aperture-to-source-depth ratio. The LB array maximum aperture is only 20% larger than the ELB aperture, yet its resolution for deep (&amp;gt;20 km) events is improved by about a factor of two, suggesting that small changes to the array geometry may yield significant improvement to the resolution power. Assuming a constant aperture, we find the LB array maintain resolution with 1% of its sensors used for backprojection. However, the high-sensor density is essential for improving the signal-to-noise ratio. Analysis of the regional and array-derived NIF catalogs together with newly acquired Moho depths beneath the NIF suggests that mantle seismicity beneath LB may be a long-lived feature of this fault.

A laboratory perspective on accelerating preparatory processes before earthquakes and implications for foreshock detectability

Dynamic failure in the laboratory is commonly preceded by many foreshocks which accompany premonitory aseismic slip. Aseismic slip is also thought to govern earthquake nucleation in nature, yet, foreshocks are rare. Here, we examine how heterogeneity due to different roughness, damage and pore pressures affects premonitory slip and acoustic emission characteristics. High fluid pressures increase stiffness and reduce heterogeneity which promotes more rapid slip acceleration and shorter precursory periods, similar to the effect of low geometric heterogeneity on smooth faults. The associated acoustic emission activity in low-heterogeneity samples becomes increasingly dominated by earthquake-like double-couple focal mechanisms. The similarity of fluid pressure increase and roughness reduction suggests that increased stress and geometric homogeneity may substantially shorten the duration of foreshock activity. Gradual fault activation and extended foreshock activity is more likely observable on immature faults at shallow depth.

Event-specific ground motion anomalies highlight the preparatory phase of earthquakes during the 2016–2017 Italian seismicity

Although physical models are improving our understanding of the crustal processes that lead to large earthquakes, observing their preparatory phases is still challenging. We show that the spatio-temporal evolution of the ground motion of small magnitude earthquakes can shed light on the preparatory phase of three main earthquakes that occurred in central Italy between 2016 and 2017. We analyze systematic deviations of peak ground accelerations generated by each earthquake from the values predicted by a reference ground motion model calibrated for background seismicity and refer to such deviations as event-specific ground motion anomalies (eGMAs). The eGMA temporal behavior indicates that during the activation phase of the main earthquakes, the ground shaking level deviates, positively or negatively, from the values expected for the background seismicity. eGMA can be exploited as beacons of stress change and help to monitor the mechanical state of the crust and the nucleation of large earthquakes.

Different earthquake nucleation conditions revealed by stress drop and b-value mapping in the northern Chilean subduction zone

Stress drop is an earthquake property indicative for the characteristic relation of slip to fault dimension. It is furthermore affected by fault strength, fault topography, the presence of fluids, rupture size, slip, and velocity. In this article, the stress drop image of an entire subduction zone, namely for the seismically highly active northernmost part of Chile, is combined with mapped b-values and their corresponding magnitude distribution in order to better constrain the conditions under which earthquakes of different provenances may nucleate. The underlying recent earthquake catalog contains over 180,000 events, covering 15 years of seismicity, from which more than 50,000 stress drop estimates were computed. Their spatial average segments the subduction zone into different parts, i.e., average stress drop between seismotectonic areas is different, although this difference is small compared to the natural scatter of stress drop values. By considering stress drop variations, b-value map, magnitude distribution, and thermal models, candidate earthquake nucleation mechanisms are identified which can explain the observed distributions. This is done for two exemplary regions: (1) The plate interface, where principally lower stress drop events are found, while at the same time a high spatial heterogeneity of stress drop values is observed. This indicates relatively smooth or lubricated rupture surfaces, and locally it suggests the existence of alternating regions controlled by strong asperities, weaker material, or creep. (2) The highly active intermediate depth (ID) seismicity region, where the variation of stress drop and b-value point to a gradual change of nucleation mechanism from dehydration embrittlement at the top of the ID cloud, over dehydration driven stress transfer in its central part, to thermal runaway shear mechanisms at its bottom. In both cases, the combination of stress drop and b-value distribution helps to better understand the origin and the differences of the observed seismicity.

Assessing the geometry of the Main Himalayan thrust in central Nepal: A thermokinematic approach

Abstract Since the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, the relationship between the geometry of megathrusts and the control it exerts over the nucleation and propagation of major earthquakes has become an important topic of debate. In this study, we integrate new geologic mapping, a newly interpreted cross section from the Daraundi valley of central Nepal, two published cross sections from the neighboring Marsyangdi and Budhi Gandaki valleys, and a suite of 270 thermochronometric ages to create an integrated and validated three-dimensional kinematic model for the central Nepal Himalaya. We use this model to investigate the assertion that the westward propagation of the Gorkha rupture was restricted by deep-seated structures in the Main Himalayan thrust. The integrated kinematic model based on these cross sections indicates that the ~30 km southward step in the Main Central thrust system mapped in the Daraundi valley, along with the corresponding step in the distribution of reset muscovite (Ar-Ar) ages, is not the result of a lateral structure in the modern Main Himalayan thrust. Instead, the step in the surface geology is the result of a considerably shorter Trishuli thrust sheet in the Daraundi transect (~30 km compared to between 105 and 120 km in the other transects). The corresponding southward step in the distribution of reset muscovite Ar-Ar ages is the result of the Lesser Himalayan duplex being completely translated over the Main Himalayan thrust ramp, elevating and exposing rocks heated to &amp;gt;400 °C farther south in the Daraundi transect. Our integrated model also highlights the 10–15 km of out-of-sequence thrusting that occurs on the Main Central thrust system across central Nepal. Importantly, these out-of-sequence thrusts sole directly into the modern Main Himalayan thrust ramp, and, together with the distribution of reset zircon (U-Th)/He and apatite fission track ages, show that the modern ramp is distinctly linear from east to west, with no support for a lateral structure at the ramp or to the south.

Midcrustal moderate-size earthquake occurrence in paleovolcanic structures off Jeju Island, South Korea

A series of midcrustal moderate-size earthquakes occurred in the Korean Peninsula recently. A midcrustal ML4.9 strike-slip earthquake with a fault-plane strike in N-S occurred on December 14, 2021 at the southwestern offshore region of Jeju Island, South Korea. The fault plane orientation and slip sense (faulting mechanism) hardly conform with the regional stress field. The deep focal depth and N-S directional strike-slip motion require transient changes in the medium properties and stress field. Strong ground motions of the midcrustal earthquake induce preferential dynamic stress changes in NE-SW direction, triggering subsequent aftershocks in NE-SW-directional adjacent faults. Both the static and dynamic stress changes caused by the mainshock contribute to the aftershock sequence. The number and focal depths of aftershocks decrease with distance from the mainshock. The different fault-plane orientations between the mainshock and aftershocks suggest earthquake nucleations in independent fault structures. The mainshock occurred in aseismic midcrustal paleovolcanic structure on the outskirt of a high seismicity region. The ML4.9 earthquake suggests possible nucleation of earthquake in seismically-inactive paleotectonic structures, successively incurring aftershocks conforming to the ambient stress. The mainshock and aftershocks suggest that paleotectonic structures may behave as source structures to spawn earthquakes.

The effects of precursory velocity changes on earthquake nucleation and stress evolution in dynamic earthquake cycle simulations

Seismic velocity changes in earthquake cycles have been observed over a wide range of timescales and may be a good indicator of the onset of future earthquakes. Understanding the effects of precursory velocity changes right before seismic and slow-slip events could potentially elucidate the onset and timing of fault failure. We use numerical models to simulate fully dynamic earthquake cycles in 2D strike-slip fault systems with antiplane geometry, surrounded by a narrow fault-parallel damage zone. By imposing S-wave velocity changes inside fault damage zones, we investigate the effects of these precursors on multiple stages of the seismic cycle, including nucleation, coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic stages. Our modeling results show a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors including fast earthquakes, slow-slip events, and variable creep. One primary effect of the imposed velocity precursor is on the earthquake nucleation phase, and earlier onset of precursors causes earthquakes to nucleate sooner with a smaller nucleation size that is not predicted by theoretical equations. Furthermore, such precursors affect the nucleation of dynamic earthquakes and slow-slip events. Our results highlight the importance of short- and long-term monitoring of fault zone structures for better assessment of regional seismic hazard.

Mylonite, cataclasite, and gouge: Reconstruction of mechanical heterogeneity along a low-angle normal fault: Death valley, USA

The spectrum of slip behavior in crustal faults generates various rock types that can inform the mechanics of earthquake genesis. However, a single fault exposure may contain evidence of slip at various depths and temperatures due to progressive fault rock formation and overprinting during exhumation. Here, we unravel the spatiotemporal evolution of mechanical transitions along the Boundary Canyon detachment, a low-angle normal fault northeast of Death Valley, USA. Field, microstructural, and geochemical characterizations of fault rocks are compared to existing laboratory experiments and combined with a thermo-kinematic model of fault evolution. Together, these constrain the depths of mechanical transitions along the fault and reveal the evolution of earthquake nucleation zone thickness. Fault exposures from different initial paleodepths passed through the mechanical transitions during footwall exhumation, resulting in overprinting of mylonite by cataclasite and ubiquitous late formation of foliated, illite-rich gouge within the uppermost crust. We present evidence of coseismic low-angle normal fault slip (e.g., injection veins of cataclasite, laminar and grain-inertial fluidization). Coseismic slip likely nucleated at strength contrasts within the fault zone (i.e., contacts between quartzite breccia and calc-mylonite; quartz ribbons and mylonite matrix; breccia and clay gouge) at ≈ 5–9.5 km depth. Observations including mutually overprinting cataclasite/ultramylonite and exposures of pulverized gouge support that dynamic rupture propagated down-dip through the brittle-ductile transition zone (≈10–11 km depth) and up-dip through velocity-strengthening fault patches (≈0–5 km depth). Rapid fault exhumation increased the geotherm, leading to upward advection of the brittle-ductile transition and shallowing/thinning of the earthquake nucleation zone. This process may explain the rarity of large magnitude earthquakes on low-angle normal faults.