Earth System Processes Research Articles

Snow water equivalent change mapping from slope-correlated synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) phase variations

Abstract. Area-based measurements of snow water equivalent (SWE) are important for understanding earth system processes such as glacier mass balance, winter hydrological storage in drainage basins, and ground thermal regimes. Remote sensing techniques are ideally suited for wide-scale area-based mapping with the most commonly used technique to measure SWE being passive microwave, which is limited to coarse spatial resolutions of 25 km or greater and to areas without significant topographic variation. Passive microwave also has a negative bias for large SWE. Another method is repeat-pass synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) that allows measurement of SWE change at much higher spatial resolution. However, it has not been widely adopted because (1) the phase unwrapping problem has not been robustly addressed, especially for interferograms with poor coherence, and (2) SWE change maps scaled directly from repeat-pass interferograms are not an absolute measurement but contain unknown offsets for each contiguous coherent area. We develop and test a novel method for repeat-pass InSAR-based dry-snow SWE estimation that exploits the sensitivity of the dry-snow refraction-induced InSAR phase to topographic variations. The method robustly estimates absolute SWE change at spatial resolutions of < 1 km without the need for phase unwrapping. We derive a quantitative signal model for this new SWE change estimator and identify the relevant sources of bias. The method is demonstrated using both simulated SWE distributions and a 9-year RADARSAT-2 (C-band, 5.405 GHz) spotlight-mode dataset near Inuvik, Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. SWE results are compared to in situ snow survey measurements and estimates from ERA5 reanalysis. Our method performs well in high-relief areas, thus providing complementary coverage to passive-microwave-based SWE estimation. Further, our method has the advantage of requiring only a single wavelength band and thus can utilize existing spaceborne synthetic aperture radar systems.

National responsibility for ecological breakdown: a fair-shares assessment of resource use, 1970–2017

Human impacts on earth-system processes are overshooting several planetary boundaries, driving a crisis of ecological breakdown. This crisis is being caused in large part by global resource extraction, which has increased dramatically over the past half century. We propose a novel method for quantifying national responsibility for ecological breakdown by assessing nations' cumulative material use in excess of equitable and sustainable boundaries. For this analysis, we derived national fair shares of a sustainable resource corridor. These fair shares were then subtracted from countries' actual resource use to determine the extent to which each country has overshot its fair share over the period 1970-2017. Through this approach, each country's share of responsibility for global excess resource use was calculated. High-income nations are responsible for 74% of global excess material use, driven primarily by the USA (27%) and the EU-28 high-income countries (25%). China is responsible for 15% of global excess material use, and the rest of the Global South (ie, the low-income and middle-income countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia) is responsible for only 8%. Overshoot in higher-income nations is driven disproportionately by the use of abiotic materials, whereas in lower-income nations it is driven disproportionately by the use of biomass. These results show that high-income nations are the primary drivers of global ecological breakdown and they need to urgently reduce their resource use to fair and sustainable levels. Achieving sufficient reductions will likely require high-income nations to adopt transformative post-growth and degrowth approaches. None.

Knowledge Priorities on Climate Change and Water in the Upper Indus Basin: A Horizon Scanning Exercise to Identify the Top 100 Research Questions in Social and Natural Sciences

AbstractRiver systems originating from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are dominated by runoff from snow and glacier melt and summer monsoonal rainfall. These water resources are highly stressed as huge populations of people living in this region depend on them, including for agriculture, domestic use, and energy production. Projections suggest that the UIB region will be affected by considerable (yet poorly quantified) changes to the seasonality and composition of runoff in the future, which are likely to have considerable impacts on these supplies. Given how directly and indirectly communities and ecosystems are dependent on these resources and the growing pressure on them due to ever‐increasing demands, the impacts of climate change pose considerable adaptation challenges. The strong linkages between hydroclimate, cryosphere, water resources, and human activities within the UIB suggest that a multi‐ and inter‐disciplinary research approach integrating the social and natural/environmental sciences is critical for successful adaptation to ongoing and future hydrological and climate change. Here we use a horizon scanning technique to identify the Top 100 questions related to the most pressing knowledge gaps and research priorities in social and natural sciences on climate change and water in the UIB. These questions are on the margins of current thinking and investigation and are clustered into 14 themes, covering three overarching topics of “governance, policy, and sustainable solutions”, “socioeconomic processes and livelihoods”, and “integrated Earth System processes”. Raising awareness of these cutting‐edge knowledge gaps and opportunities will hopefully encourage researchers, funding bodies, practitioners, and policy makers to address them.

AusGeochem: An Open Platform for Geochemical Data Preservation, Dissemination and Synthesis

To promote a more efficient and transparent geochemistry data ecosystem, a consortium of Australian university research laboratories called the AuScope Geochemistry Network assembled to build a collaborative platform for the express purpose of preserving, disseminating and collating geochronology and isotopic data. In partnership with geoscience‐data‐solutions company Lithodat Pty Ltd, the open, cloud‐based AusGeochem platform (https://ausgeochem.auscope.org.au) was developed to simultaneously serve as a geosample registry, a geochemical data repository and a data analysis tool. Informed by method‐specific groups of geochemistry experts and established international data reporting practices, community‐agreed database schemas were developed for rock and mineral geosample metadata and secondary ion mass spectrometry U‐Pb analysis, with additional models for laser ablation‐inductively coupled‐mass spectrometry U‐Pb and Lu‐Hf, Ar‐Ar, fission‐track and (U‐Th‐Sm)/He under development. Collectively, the AusGeochem platform provides the geochemistry community with a new, dynamic resource to help facilitate FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) data management, streamline data dissemination and advanced quantitative investigations of Earth system processes. By systematically archiving detailed geochemical (meta‐)data in structured schemas, intractably large datasets comprising thousands of analyses produced by numerous laboratories can be readily interrogated in novel and powerful ways. These include rapid derivation of inter‐data relationships, facilitating on‐the‐fly data compilation, analysis and visualisation.

Missing Climate Feedbacks in Fire Models: Limitations and Uncertainties in Fuel Loadings and the Role of Decomposition in Fine Fuel Accumulation

AbstractClimate change has lengthened wildfire seasons and transformed fire regimes throughout the world. Thus, capturing fuel and fire dynamics is critical for projecting Earth system processes in warmer and drier future. Recent advances in fire regime modeling have linked land surface models with fire behavior models. Such models often rely on fine surface fuels to drive fire behavior and effects, and while many models can simulate processes that control how these fuels change through time (i.e., fine fuel accumulation), fuel loading estimates remain highly uncertain, largely due to uncertainties in the algorithms controlling decomposition. Uncertainties are often amplified in climate change forecasts when initial conditions and feedbacks are not well represented. The goal of this review is to highlight fine fuel decomposition as a key uncertainty in model systems. We review the current understanding of mechanisms controlling decomposition, describe how they are incorporated into models, and evaluate the uncertainties associated with different approaches. We also use three state‐of‐the‐art land surface fire regime models to demonstrate the sensitivity of decomposition and subsequent wildfire projections to both parameter and model structure uncertainty and show that sensitivity can increase substantially under future climate warming. Given that many of the governing decomposition equations are based on individual case studies from a single location, and because key parameters are often hard coded, critical uncertainties are currently ignored. It is essential to be transparent about these uncertainties as the domain of land surface models is expanded to include the evaluation of future wildfire regimes.

Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities.

We submit that the safe operating space of the planetary boundary of novel entities is exceeded since annual production and releases are increasing at a pace that outstrips the global capacity for assessment and monitoring. The novel entities boundary in the planetary boundaries framework refers to entities that are novel in a geological sense and that could have large-scale impacts that threaten the integrity of Earth system processes. We review the scientific literature relevant to quantifying the boundary for novel entities and highlight plastic pollution as a particular aspect of high concern. An impact pathway from production of novel entities to impacts on Earth system processes is presented. We define and apply three criteria for assessment of the suitability of control variables for the boundary: feasibility, relevance, and comprehensiveness. We propose several complementary control variables to capture the complexity of this boundary, while acknowledging major data limitations. We conclude that humanity is currently operating outside the planetary boundary based on the weight-of-evidence for several of these control variables. The increasing rate of production and releases of larger volumes and higher numbers of novel entities with diverse risk potentials exceed societies’ ability to conduct safety related assessments and monitoring. We recommend taking urgent action to reduce the harm associated with exceeding the boundary by reducing the production and releases of novel entities, noting that even so, the persistence of many novel entities and/or their associated effects will continue to pose a threat.

Assessment of the impact of flood on groundwater hydrochemistry and its suitability for drinking and irrigation in the River Periyar Lower Basin, India.

Owing to the consequences of Anthropocene climate changes, extremes of weather and climate disasters such as heavy precipitation, tropical cyclones, and floods, have strengthened in every region across the globe and are badly affecting the earth system processes. The climate change has a tremendous impact in the Western Ghats, the UNESCO heritage site in India, and has to be studied in detail. Floods are the most common (and among the most deadly) natural disasters bringing heavy destruction in the Western Ghat river basins of India, and the Periyar basin is one among them. The low-lying areas of Periyar river basin (RPLB) is one of the worst affected river basins in the 2018 Kerala floods. Since the basin was continuously monitoring, the groundwater quality has been assessed in Periyar basin during three periods (pre-flood, flood, and post-flood-April, August, and October 2018 respectively) and is described in this paper. Since the water table is shallow in RPLB, floodwaters quickly reach the groundwater table, thus influencing the groundwater quality. So, the groundwater samples were collected from 26 sites in RPLB, and analyzed for quality determining parameters. Parameters like pH, TDS, EC, TH, NH3-, NO2-, HCO3-, SO42-, SiO44-, Mg2+, and K+ decreased during flood compared to pre-flood times. On the other hand, Ca2+, Na, and Cl-, turbidity values were increased during flood times. The values of pH, TDS, EC, turbidity, NH3-, HCO3-, SO42-, SiO44-, Mg2+, Na+, and K+ were slightly increased in post-flood period compared to flood period. When compared to the pre-flood values, turbidity, NH3-, SO42-, Na+, and K+ were slightly increased in post-flood period. It was also observed that pH, TDS, EC, TH, NO2-, Cl-, HCO3-, SiO44-, PO43-, Ca2+, Mg2+, and E. coli values were higher in pre-flood periods compared to the post-flood scenario. Except pH, turbidity, and E. coli, the averages of all other parameters are falling under the recommended drinking quality values of WHO. The pH belongs to acidic nature throughout the study period. The Piper plot indicates the dominance of Ca-Mg-HCO3 type in pre-flood, and mixing of Ca-Mg-HCO3 type in both flood and post-flood periods. The Gibbs plot reveals that the concentration of elements is mainly depending on rock weathering and sub-surface water flow. The USSL plot depicted that the 92-96% of samples are noted as lower salinity and low sodium hazard at the source of C2S1 and C1S1; however, the 4-11% of samples are noted as high salinity but low sodium hazard at a source of C4S1 and C3S1. The Wilcox diagram indicates that the 88-96% of groundwater was found as higher suitability for irrigation during the study periods. Based on GIS based WQI model, out of the 26 samples studied, 69% of wells showed improvement in water quality after flood; meanwhile, 19% well water samples in flood were observed for lower quality compared to pre-flood times and 12% of samples remain unchanged during flood. Though floods are having positive and negative impacts, from this study, it is clear that quality of the groundwater in the RPLB is not severely affected, but they became diluted to permissible limits during flood and post-flood periods except some locations. Since the flood impact studies on groundwater systems are meager, this data from Periyar basin can be used as baseline groundwater reference data for all future flood-related river basin studies and will be very beneficial for the policy and planning needs in the context of climate change. It is high time to establish the baseline data of all river basins of Western Ghats since the normal earth system processes are worse affected by the recurrence of floods which are reporting every year.

Applying Understanding of Earth Systems, Including Climate Change, to Exploration of Other Ocean Worlds

Earth’s polar and deep ocean systems and how they are affected by environmental changes provide analogs for understanding key processes acting in other ocean worlds, from physical and geological dynamics to chemical and biological processes. Subglacial lakes in Antarctica that are overlain by multiple kilometers of ice, as well as polar ice shelves underlain by subsurface areas of the ocean, are key sites for studying processes operating at ice-water and rock-ocean interfaces on Earth and on icy worlds. Hydrothermal vents at the seafloor release chemicals that provide energy for life and are also key areas for cross-linked Earth and planetary studies relevant to deep oceans dynamics. The presence of chemosynthetic microbes that are then consumed by multicellular life forms provide an analog for examining the potential existence of life in some subregions within ocean worlds. Here, we discuss the various Earth system processes that may have analogs on other ocean worlds and the benefits of collaborative Earth and planetary science investigations.

The Effects of Dry Snow on the SAR Impulse Response and Feasibility for Single Channel Snow Water Equivalent Estimation

Snow water equivalent (SWE) is an important surface parameter for understanding a number of Earth system processes. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has considerable potential for measuring SWE of dry-snow because SAR can penetrate through the snow to the ground surface and is both amplitude- and phase-sensitive to refraction from the snow. Previous work on refraction-based SWE measurement by SAR has utilized the repeat-pass InSAR phase signal to estimate changes in SWE that occur between SAR acquisitions. These are subject to temporal decorrelation effects and consider only the refraction that occurs along the SAR beam center rather than the entire synthetic aperture. This study examines the refractive effect of dry-snow along the synthetic aperture and its impact on SAR image formation including defocusing and phase bias of the system impulse response. Snow phase compensation during time domain processing to recover the snow-free impulse response function (IRF) is described and demonstrated. The feasibility of using the mapdrift and image sharpness autofocus methods to estimate SWE is examined, and the effect of key system parameters on the estimation performance is derived. Experimental validation of the method was conducted by acquiring L-band data with the Simon Fraser University (SFU) Airborne SAR System over a pair of corner reflectors installed on the Kluane icefield in northwestern Canada. Results from both simulations and the icefield experiment are presented and compared including an analysis of errors affecting the estimation.

Formulation of Water Sustainability Index for India as a performance gauge for realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6.

Anthropogenic activities targeting economic progress have triggered changes in the Earth system processes causing depletion of resources and degradation of ecosystems. Water isa critical natural resource whichhas been severely impacted through groundwater depletion, surface water contamination and ocean acidification resulting in repercussions on human health and biodiversity losses. Likewise, India, a mega biodiversity nation has been critically affected by degradation and drawdown of water resources with far-reaching consequences on environmental vitality and socio-economic development. In order to prevent extreme water scarcity in the near future, the country needs to promote sustainable utilisation of water resources by adhering to the targets of Goal 6 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDGs). The present work, therefore, has focussed on the development of a Water Sustainability Index (WSI) for India that would help attaining the targets of SDG 6. A total of 12 indicators categorized under biophysical and social development dimensions and synonymous with the targets of SDG 6 have been used for the formulation of WSI and thereby understanding how much water resources are used annually in a sustainable manner. The study also highlights the interrelationship between the diverse social development and health indicators (SDG 3) of Indian community. The research has the potential to provide guidance for efficient use of water resources in India. Acting as a yardstick and guiding star, the sustainability metric will help the nation to monitor whether it is on the right track and navigate its journey towards achieving water sustainability. It also calls for cautious course correction and restructuring of current Indian policy and operational instruments for effective green governance and sustainable water management.

Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops

Abstract. In the Anthropocene, the social dynamics of human societies have become critical to understanding planetary-scale Earth system dynamics. The conceptual foundations of Earth system modelling have externalised social processes in ways that now hinder progress in understanding Earth resilience and informing governance of global environmental change. New approaches to global modelling of the human World are needed to address these challenges. The current modelling landscape is highly diverse and heterogeneous, ranging from purely biophysical Earth system models, to hybrid macro-economic integrated assessments models, to a plethora of models of socio-cultural dynamics. World–Earth models capable of simulating complex and entangled human–Earth system processes of the Anthropocene are currently not available. They will need to draw on and selectively integrate elements from the diverse range of fields and approaches; thus, future World–Earth modellers require a structured approach to identify, classify, select, combine and critique model components from multiple modelling traditions. Here, we develop taxonomies for ordering the multitude of societal and biophysical subsystems and their interactions. We suggest three taxa for modelled subsystems: (i) biophysical, where dynamics is usually represented by “natural laws” of physics, chemistry or ecology (i.e. the usual components of Earth system models); (ii) socio-cultural, dominated by processes of human behaviour, decision-making and collective social dynamics (e.g. politics, institutions, social networks and even science itself); and (iii) socio-metabolic, dealing with the material interactions of social and biophysical subsystems (e.g. human bodies, natural resources and agriculture). We show how higher-order taxonomies can be derived for classifying and describing the interactions between two or more subsystems. This then allows us to highlight the kinds of social–ecological feedback loops where new modelling efforts need to be directed. As an example, we apply the taxonomy to a stylised World–Earth system model that endogenises the socially transmitted choice of discount rates in a greenhouse gas emissions game to illustrate the effects of social–ecological feedback loops that are usually not considered in current modelling efforts. The proposed taxonomy can contribute to guiding the design and operational development of more comprehensive World–Earth models for understanding Earth resilience and charting sustainability transitions within planetary boundaries and other future trajectories in the Anthropocene.

Planetary well-being

Tensions between the well-being of present humans, future humans, and nonhuman nature manifest in social protests and political and academic debates over the future of Earth. The increasing consumption of natural resources no longer increases, let alone equalises, human well-being, but has led to the current ecological crisis and harms both human and nonhuman well-being. While the crisis has been acknowledged, the existing conceptual frameworks are in some respects ill-equipped to address the crisis in a way that would link the resolving of the crisis with the pivotal aim of promoting equal well-being. The shortcomings of the existing concepts in this respect relate to anthropocentric normative orientation, methodological individualism that disregards process dynamics and precludes integrating the considerations of human and nonhuman well-being, and the lack of multiscalar considerations of well-being. This work derives and proposes the concept of planetary well-being to address the aforementioned conceptual issues, to recognise the moral considerability of both human and nonhuman well-being, and to promote transdisciplinary, cross-cultural discourse for addressing the crisis and for promoting societal and cultural transformation. Conceptually, planetary well-being shifts focus on well-being from individuals to processes, Earth system and ecosystem processes, that underlie all well-being. Planetary well-being is a state where the integrity of Earth system and ecosystem processes remains unimpaired to a degree that species and populations can persist to the future and organisms have the opportunity to achieve well-being. After grounding and introducing planetary well-being, this work shortly discusses how the concept can be operationalised and reflects upon its potential as a bridging concept between different worldviews.

Global nutrient equity for people and the planet

The industrial world has converted inert soil and atmospheric nutrients into reactive fertilizer flows that endanger water quality, biodiversity and climate. Simultaneously, poor nations starve because of the shortage of these nutrients in agricultural soils. Here we propose a redistribution of accumulated nutrients to enhance food security while counteracting the current degradation of critical Earth system processes. Residue and sediment nutrients could be processed and transported to food-insecure regions through the opposite logistics used to ship rock phosphate across the globe. Financing through trading accumulated rights could trigger the required innovations in processing, logistics and thinking. Such a socially just 'one Earth currency' could leverage a transformation towards resilience, equity and dignity across the critical Earth system processes.

Assessing the importance of thermogenic degassing from the Karoo Large Igneous Province (LIP) in driving Toarcian carbon cycle perturbations

The emplacement of the Karoo Large Igneous Province (LIP) occurred synchronously with the Toarcian crisis (ca. 183 Ma), which is characterized by major carbon cycle perturbations. A marked increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 (pCO2) attests to significant input of carbon, while negative carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) in marine and terrestrial records suggest the involvement of a 12C-enriched source. Here we explore the effects of pulsed carbon release from the Karoo LIP on atmospheric pCO2 and δ13C of marine sediments, using the GEOCLIM carbon cycle model. We show that a total of 20,500 Gt C replicates the Toarcian pCO2 and δ13C proxy data, and that thermogenic carbon (δ13C of −36 ‰) represents a plausible source for the observed negative CIEs. Importantly, an extremely isotopically depleted carbon source, such as methane clathrates, is not required in order to replicate the negative CIEs. Although exact values of individual degassing pulses represent estimates, we consider our emission scenario realistic as it incorporates the available geological knowledge of the Karoo LIP and a representative framework for Earth system processes during the Toarcian.

Phosphorus mineral evolution and prebiotic chemistry: From minerals to microbes

Phosphorus availability is considered a limiting factor in many scenarios for the origin of life. The concentration of P in environments of prebiotic interest will have been governed by the available mineral sources of P on the early Earth. A knowledge of early Earth P mineralogy and prevailing global and local environmental conditions is therefore needed to understand which scenarios for prebiotic chemistry are most plausible. Here, we review the plausible diversity of P-bearing phases at Earth's surface during the emergence of life. We consider phases that were delivered by meteorites (exogenous phases), as well as those that developed solely as a result of Earth system processes (endogenous phases). We take into account the known formation conditions of individual phases, as well as the observed temporal distributions of P-bearing minerals found at Earth's surface today. Our approach allows us to leverage what is known about changes in the Earth system in order to rule out the prebiotic relevance of many P-bearing phases. Meanwhile, we highlight a small number of phases that are of possible prebiotic relevance; specifically, exogenous schreibersite , merrillite, and apatite , and endogenous apatite, olivine, and glass. Prebiotic mineral-chemical scenarios can be formulated for each phase, with distinct requirements for the environmental and tectonic state of early Earth. We can therefore relate the plausibility of mineral-chemical scenarios to the nature of early Earth, bridging the fields of geoscience and prebiotic chemistry.

Reply to comments by Thilo Rennert on “Biogeochemical cycling of iron (hydr-)oxides and its impact on organic carbon turnover in coastal wetlands: A global synthesis and perspective”. Earth-Science Reviews (2021) 103658

Phosphorus availability is considered a limiting factor in many scenarios for the origin of life. The concentration of P in environments of prebiotic interest will have been governed by the available mineral sources of P on the early Earth. A knowledge of early Earth P mineralogy and prevailing global and local environmental conditions is therefore needed to understand which scenarios for prebiotic chemistry are most plausible. Here, we review the plausible diversity of P-bearing phases at Earth's surface during the emergence of life. We consider phases that were delivered by meteorites (exogenous phases), as well as those that developed solely as a result of Earth system processes (endogenous phases). We take into account the known formation conditions of individual phases, as well as the observed temporal distributions of P-bearing minerals found at Earth's surface today. Our approach allows us to leverage what is known about changes in the Earth system in order to rule out the prebiotic relevance of many P-bearing phases. Meanwhile, we highlight a small number of phases that are of possible prebiotic relevance; specifically, exogenous schreibersite, merrillite, and apatite, and endogenous apatite, olivine, and glass. Prebiotic mineral-chemical scenarios can be formulated for each phase, with distinct requirements for the environmental and tectonic state of early Earth. We can therefore relate the plausibility of mineral-chemical scenarios to the nature of early Earth, bridging the fields of geoscience and prebiotic chemistry.

Beyond order, beyond the human

Beyond order, beyond the human

Feeding the world in a narrowing safe operating space

Feeding the world in a narrowing safe operating space

The Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences Scientific Statement on Climate Change – Its Impacts in Canada, and the Critical Role of Earth Scientists in Mitigation and Adaptation

The Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences (CFES) has issued this statement to summarize the science, effects, and implications of climate change. We highlight the role of Earth scientists in documenting and mitigating climate change, and in managing and adapting to its consequences in Canada. CFES is the coordinated voice of Canada’s Earth Sciences community with 14 member organizations representing some 15,000 geoscientists. Our members are drawn from academia, industry, education, and government. The mission of CFES is to ensure decision makers and the public understand the contributions of Earth Science to Canadian society and the economy. Climate change has become a national and global priority for all levels of government. The geological record shows us that the global climate has changed throughout Earth’s history, but the current rates of change are almost unprecedented. Over the last 70 years, levels of common greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere have steadily increased. Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is now 418 parts per million — its highest of the last three million years. The chemical (isotopic) composition of carbon in the atmosphere indicates the increase in GHGs is due to burning fossil fuels. GHGs absorb energy emitted from Earth’s surface and re-radiate it back, warming the lower levels of the atmosphere. Climatic adjustments that have recently occurred are, in practical terms, irreversible, but further change can be mitigated by lowering emissions of GHGs. Climate change is amplified by three important Earth system processes and effects. First, as the climate warms evaporation increases, raising atmospheric concentrations of water vapour, itself a GHG — and adding to warming. Second, loss of ice cover from the polar ice sheets and glaciers exposes larger areas of land and open water — leading to greater absorption of heat from the sun. Third, thawing of near-surface permafrost releases additional GHGs (primarily CO2 and methane) during decay of organic matter previously preserved frozen in the ground. Some impacts of climate change are incremental and steadily occurring, such as melting of glaciers and ice sheets, with consequent sea level rise. Others are intermittent, such as extreme weather events, like hurricanes — but are becoming more frequent. Summer water shortages are increasingly common in western Canada as mountain snowpacks melt earlier and summer river flows decline. In northern Canada, warming and thawing of near-surface permafrost has led to deterioration of infrastructure and increased costs for buildings that now require chilled foundations. Other consequences of unchecked climate change include increased coastal erosion, increases in the number and size of wildfires, and reduction in winter road access to isolated northern communities. Reductions in net GHG emissions are urgently required to mitigate the many effects of further climate change. Industrial and public works development projects must now assess the effects of climate change in their planning, design, and management. Cities, municipalities, and rural communities need to plan new residential development carefully to avoid enhanced risk of flooding, coastal erosion, or wildfire. Earth Science knowledge and expertise is integral to exploration and development of new metals and Earth materials required for a carbon-neutral future, and in the capture and storage of CO2 within the Earth. Earth Science is also central to society’s adaptation to new climatic regimes and reduction of risks. This includes anticipation, assessment, and management of extreme events, development of new standards and guidelines for geotechnical and engineering practice, and revision to regulations that consider climate change. Geoscientists also have an important role in the education of students and the public on the reasons for necessary action. Canada is uniquely positioned with its strong global geoscientific leadership, its vast landmass, and its northern terrain to effectively leverage research activities around climate change. Geoscience tools and geoscientists’ skills will be integral to Canada’s preparation for climate change.

Evaluating Variable‐Resolution CESM Over China and Western United States for Use in Water‐Energy Nexus and Impacts Modeling

AbstractClimate models are critical tools to study earth system processes and are often further downscaled to provide refined‐resolution data sets for regional water‐energy impact analyses. In this study, the Variable‐Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM), a new dynamical downscaling method, is employed to generate 1/8° simulations for China and the western United States over 1970–2006. Precipitation, temperature, snowpack, radiation, and wind speed are compared with two 1° global climate models, regional climate model ensemble, and reference data sets to evaluate their fidelity. Simulated precipitation skill is dependent upon the reference data sets used, a slight (<+10%) and spatially consistent wet bias in China during summer and the western United States during winter. Precipitation bias in VR‐CESM is the smallest among models and demonstrates the added value provided by resolution refinement. However, temperature biases are generally greater than precipitation due to more complicated interactions among processes. VR‐CESM simulates +2°C warm bias in the low‐elevation regions in China but −2°C cold bias in mountains. However, DJF cold bias (−2.23°C to−3.37°C) and JJA warm bias (+1.13°C to +1.87°C) exist in the western United States. The modeling skills of precipitation and temperature at various topographies are similar in the two evaluated regions. The cold bias was likely affected by downward shortwave radiation deficit (−15%) and slow bias of surface wind speeds (−16% to −29%). Despite the wet and cold bias, snow water equivalent and snow cover are underestimated in mountains. We conclude that VR‐CESM outperforms other models evaluated and provides the best estimation of downscaled climate model data for water‐energy studies.