To eliminate the limitations of the deterministic analysis approach currently used for seismic safety evaluation of dams, this paper introduces a novel framework for analyzing the safety of high dams based on probability and reliability. This framework incorporates the randomness nature and impact of aftershocks in simulating main-aftershock sequences. Then, an improved generalized plastic model (GPM) is adopted to perform static-dynamic deformation analysis of the dam, which is achieved by only one set of parameters. Lastly, the non-invasive stochastic finite element method (SFEM), combined with the direct probability integral method (DPIM), is adopted. This method yields probability density functions (PDFs) for each seismic response moment, ensuring both efficient and accurate assessment of dynamic time-varying reliability. The new framework was employed to evaluate the deformation reliability and slope stability of Lianghekou dam. Results demonstrate its superior efficiency compared to conventional methods, verifying its suitability for stochastic dynamic analysis of large and complex nonlinear structures. The study suggests that the variable impact of aftershocks on dam stability depends on design requirements, emphasizing the necessity to consider such effects in dam safety assessments.
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