Earnings Revisions Research Articles

Pengaruh Perataan Laba dan Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure Terhadap Reaksi Pasar dan Resiko Investasi (Studi Empiris Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia)

The market reacts to news regarding company earnings, which further suggests that earnings revisions have a negative effect on market reactions. This means that the greater the profit moderation action, the weaker the market reaction to company profit news. CSR agents cannot strengthen or weaken the relationship between income smoothing and market response. This research aims to determine the effect of income smoothing and disclosure of corporate social responsibility on market reactions and investment risk in manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This research focuses on problem solving to explain the relationship between one variable and another. others in qualitative and quantitative analysis. Based on the research results, it can be concluded that income smoothing does not have a significant effect on market reactions. CSR disclosure does not have a significant effect on market reactions. Income smoothing does not have a significant effect on investment risk. The moderating variables of profit and CSR disclosure, if examined together or simultaneously, do not have a significant influence on increasing market response. Based on the calculation results, it can be seen that there is a difference between investment risk and income smoothing. This disclosure will also produce positive abnormal returns because it contains information that has economic value. With the insights from this research, it is hoped that investors will be able to make investment decisions that will bring extraordinary returns to the market.

Margin Forecasts by Managers and Analysts

In this article, the authors study qualitative margin forecasts made by managers in their earnings conference calls as well as forecast revisions of gross margins by financial analysts. Maintaining margins in cases when the costs of input factors rise indicates strength because the firm can pass these increased costs onto its customers. Increased margins when sales increase indicate strong market power by the firm or a better utilization of fixed resources. Decreasing margins when revenues increase typically indicate a strategy of capturing market share. Due to the recent difficulties in supply chains caused by the pandemic and then by inflation pressures, it became more important to study changes in margins forecasted by managers and analysts. The authors provide evidence that these forecasts can improve portfolio returns, especially when used in conjunction with forecast revisions of sales and earnings.

Analysts' knowledge structure and performance

AbstractThis article examines the effect of financial analysts' knowledge structure on their forecast performance based on manually collected data of 1590 sell‐side financial analysts' educational background. The longer the period of higher education in one major, the profounder the knowledge in a specific area (Ng & Feldman, Personnel Psychology, 62, 2009, 89), and the less likely it is grasped by self‐education outside university. Thus, we argue that analysts who study the same (different) major in undergraduate and postgraduate periods have deeper (wider) knowledge and better (poorer) understanding to a major‐related industry (Brown et al., Journal of Accounting Research, 53, 2015, 1). Our results show that financial analysts with deeper knowledge tend to release more accurate earnings forecasts and their earnings revisions evoke larger market reactions. The forecast advantage of analysts with deeper knowledge is more pronounced when firms' business is more concentrated or more relevant to analysts' knowledge. We conclude that the knowledge structure cultivated by higher education can partially explain analysts' job performance and deeper knowledge can bring better industry understanding besides work experience (Bradley et al., The Journal of Finance, 72, 2017, 751).

Forecast Withdrawals and Reporting Reputation

ABSTRACTWhile accounting research has extensively examined initial guidance disclosures, the disclosures that managers make when initial forecasts become materially inaccurate have received much less attention. These updates are unique because managers are communicating that their initial forecasts are no longer correct. In this context, we examine how earnings forecast withdrawals affect managers' reporting reputation, relative to earnings revisions and nondisclosure. While managers face immediate negative market consequences after withdrawals, they enjoy reputational benefits (in the form of improved credibility) in the long run when guidance updates resume. In contrast, reporting reputation does not improve for managers who revise forecasts or for those who choose not to update at all. Difference-in-differences analyses confirm this incremental boost to credibility that is associated with withdrawals. This evidence suggests disclosing what managers do not know may be as important as disclosing what they do know when building a reporting reputation.

What Information in Financial Statements Could Be Used to Predict the Risk of Equity Investment?

Theoretically, accounting earnings could be used to estimate the intrinsic value of equity. If accounting earnings could be predicted accurately, then, so could be the value of equity, thereby, creating much less risk in equity investment. However, earnings surprises are common, and therefore so is the risk in equity investment. To quantify the risk in the investment implied from accounting earnings, I propose to use financial statements to construct abnormal sales growth rates (ABG) and abnormal changes in profit margins (ABPM) to measure the uncertainty embedded in the accounting earnings. I measure ABG (ABPM) as the difference between the current value of sales growth rate (profit margin) and its benchmark, a weighted value of the three preceding years’ sales growth rate (profit margin). Then, I quantify whether and to what extent the news of ABG and ABPM are material enough to change the expected earnings (proxied by analysts’ forecasted earnings revisions [FREV] and predicted unexpected earnings [UE], and future stock returns [SAR]). Fama–MacBeth regression results show that, together, solely ABPM and ABG could explain 8.2% (2.3%) (5.4%) of the variation of FREV (UE) (SAR). The risk-predictability of ABPM and ABG is robust to the presence of abnormal growth in net operating assets and accruals quality, which, suggested by previous literature, might influence unexpected earnings. Further contingent analyses indicate that the capital market reacts more strongly to the bad news embedded in the ABPM/ABG (with negative signs) than the good news in ABPM/ABG (with positive signs).

A New Uncertainty Measure—CAM

In contrast to past auditor opinions, which were largely unqualified and uniformly written, a new disclosure requirement expands auditors’ opinions to include a description of Critical Audit Matters (“CAMs”) and the audit steps necessary to form an opinion about them. The expanded disclosure provides substantially more information about the areas of financial reporting that auditors consider most uncertain. Using a comprehensive sample of initial CAM disclosures in the 10-K filings for the period of August 2019–May 2020, we find that a larger number of CAMs, a greater number of required auditing procedures, and more wordy and extensive CAM discussions are negatively associated with stock returns immediately following the 10-K filings. We also document significantly more negative analyst earnings revisions for firms whose auditors report more CAMs and provide more verbose CAM disclosures. TOPICS:Legal/regulatory/public policy, information providers/credit ratings, financial crises and financial market history Key Findings ▪ Under the new PCAOB regulation, auditors include a description of Critical Audit Matters in the audit opinion. ▪ More extensive Critical Audit Matters disclosures indicate greater uncertainty inherent in firms’ financial statements. ▪ Firms with more extensive Critical Audit Matters disclosures have lower stock returns and lower analyst forecasts.

A New Uncertainty Measure - CAM

In contrast to past auditor opinions, which were largely unqualified and uniformly written, a new disclosure requirement expands auditors’ opinions to include a description of Critical Audit Matters (“CAMs”) and the audit steps necessary to form an opinion about them. The expanded disclosure provides substantially more information about the areas of financial reporting that auditors consider most uncertain. Using a comprehensive sample of initial CAM disclosures in the 10-K filings for the period of August 2019-May 2020, we find that a larger number of CAMs, a greater number of required auditing procedures and more wordy and extensive CAM discussions are negatively associated with stock returns immediately around the 10-K filings. We also document significantly more negative analyst earnings revisions for firms whose auditors report more CAMs and provide more verbose CAM disclosures.

Distracted Analysts: Evidence from Climatic Disasters

Using staggered climatic disasters in the U.S, we find that earnings forecasts by analysts who experienced a major climatic disaster become less accurate than those by the unaffected analysts within three months after the disaster due to distracted attention. Stock prices respond less strongly to earnings revisions by disaster-zone analysts. Disaster-zone analysts are more likely to reiterate their previous forecasts and strategically allocate their attention to firms of greater importance or salience. Climatic disasters adversely affect the information environment of firms unaffected by the disasters but covered by disaster-zone analysts, suggesting a spillover effect of idiosyncratic shocks via financial intermediaries.

Perencanaan Pajak dan Book Tax Differences terhadap Persistensi Laba dengan Variabel Moderating Kualitas Laba

This study aims to analyze and find evidence of the effect of tax planning and book tax differences on earnings persistence with earnings quality as moderating variable. The data used is secondary data obtained from the financial statements of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for 4 years; namely 2014-2017 selected by purposive sampling method. This analytical method used to test the hypothesis in this study is multiple regression analysis.The results of this study indicate that the tax planning variable has a negative influence on earnings persistence. This is because tax planning is used to apply discretion policy of accounting in reducing company profit so it will reduce tax amount. Contra effect of tax planning causes low earnings persistence The company conducts tax planning to minimize the tax burden that is borne by companies that have a long-term focus so that profits can reflect future earnings (sustainable earnings). Whereas book tax differences do not have an influence on earnings persistence, this is possible because income and costs that are adjusted in fiscal reconciliation do not affect future earnings revisions. Lastly, earnings quality does not strengthen tax planning and book tax differences toward earnings persistence.

An Incomplete Audit at the Earnings Announcement: Implications for Financial Reporting Quality and the Market's Response to Earnings

ABSTRACTThere has been a substantial increase, since 2004, in the number of firms that announce annual earnings before audit completion as opposed to after audit completion. In this study, we argue that earnings announced before audit completion are associated with lower financial reporting quality and investor perceptions that earnings are more likely to be overstated. Consistent with this expectation, we document that the market places more (less) weight on good (bad) earnings news for earnings announced after audit completion relative to earnings announced before audit completion. We continue to find this differential market response when we expand the returns window to include the 10‐K filing date, suggesting that the differential response is not driven by investors' temporary concerns about earnings revisions between the earnings announcement and the 10‐K filing date or by differential GAAP disclosures in the earnings announcement, as suggested in prior research. Finally, as a direct test of financial reporting quality, we show that earnings announced with a completed audit are less likely to be restated in the future, are less likely to meet or beat expectations, and are associated with fewer income‐increasing discretionary accruals than those announced with an incomplete audit.

Regulations and Brain Drain: Evidence from Wall Street Star Analysts’ Career Choices

The Global Settlement, along with related regulations in the early 2000s, prohibits the use of investment banking revenue to fund equity research and compensate equity analysts. We find that all-star analysts from investment banks are more likely to exit the profession or move to the buy side after the regulations. The departed star analysts’ earnings revisions and stock recommendations are more informative than those of the remaining analysts who followed the same companies. To the extent that star analysts are superior to their nonstar counterparts in terms of research ability and ability to inform the market, the exit of star analysts represents a brain drain in the sell-side equity research industry. These results are consistent with the view that the regulations introduced to protect equity investors have unintended adverse effects on the investors due to a brain drain in investment banks. This paper was accepted by Suraj Srinivasan, accounting.

Earnings forecast revisions and securities prices evolution in the Tunisian stock market

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of forecast earnings’ revision on the evolution of securities prices in the Tunisian stock market.Design/methodology/approachA portfolio study of investor reaction and stock prices following revisions is first conducted to highlight the existence of abnormal return related to analysts’ earnings revisions. Analysis is then supplemented by a second empirical investigation based on the panel data to quantify the effect of revision on the abnormal profitability of securities.FindingsThe evidence found in this paper validates the fundamental theoretical hypothesis according to which the psychological bias resulting from the effect of the forecast earnings revision is related to the abnormal profitability of the securities. The authors conclude the importance of the revision impact on investors’ behavior on one hand, and the informational content of the analysts’ forecasts and the biases which they lead on the other hand.Originality/valueGlobally, the empirical illustrations largely validate the findings of behavioral models particularly that of Kormendi and Lippe (1987), Cornell and Letsman (1989), Beaver et al. (2008) which states that investors under psychological bias, react to the effect of forecast earnings revision by an abnormal variation in stock prices.

Disaggregated Capital Expenditures

SYNOPSIS Financial analysts and accounting regulators encourage companies to disclose the disaggregation of total capital expenditures (CAPX) into the portion for sustaining current performance (maintenance CAPX [MCAPX]) and the portion for pursuing additional opportunities (growth CAPX [GCAPX]). Using a hand-collected sample of voluntary disclosures, we document that traditional estimates of disaggregated CAPX components, using currently required financial statement disclosures, are inadequate proxies for actual (disclosed) values of MCAPX and GCAPX. Specifically, we find that estimation errors for disaggregated variables are associated with future financial performance (i.e., changes in sales and earnings), suggesting that disaggregated disclosure information is potentially useful in forecasting. We also find that these estimation errors are associated with analyst forecast revisions of sales and earnings per share, consistent with analysts incorporating disaggregated CAPX information into their forecasts. Our results provide evidence that disaggregated CAPX disclosures are superior to currently required aggregate CAPX disclosure for forecasting firms' financial performance.

Perencanaan Pajak dan Book Tax Differences terhadap Persistensi Laba dengan Variabel Moderating Kualitas Laba

This study aims to analyze and find evidence of the effect of tax planning and book tax differences onearnings persistence with earnings quality as moderating variable. The data used is secondary dataobtained from the financial statements of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian StockExchange for 4 years; namely 2014-2017 selected by purposive sampling method. This analyticalmethod used to test the hypothesis in this study is multiple regression analysis.The results of this studyindicate that the tax planning variable has a negative influence on earnings persistence. This isbecause tax planning is used to apply discretion policy of accounting in reducing company profit so itwill reduce tax amount. Contra effect of tax planning causes low earnings persistence The companyconducts tax planning to minimize the tax burden that is borne by companies that have a long-termfocus so that profits can reflect future earnings (sustainable earnings). Whereas book tax differencesdo not have an influence on earnings persistence, this is possible because income and costs that areadjusted in fiscal reconciliation do not affect future earnings revisions. Lastly, earnings quality doesnot strengthen tax planning and book tax differences toward earnings persistence.

Detecting Earnings Information in Repurchase Announcements Using the Luck of the (Double) Irish

Previous studies disagree about whether open market repurchase announcements contain positive, negative, or no information about earnings expectations. In this comprehensive study, I use a novel measure of analyst earnings forecast revisions that corrects for undetected biases found in prior studies. While I find no evidence of average changes in earnings expectations across a 28-year sample of repurchase announcements, I find positive post-announcement forecast revisions in a subsample of firms likely to be using “Double Irish” offshore subsidiary structures to delay or avoid U.S. taxes on firm profits. Tests of this subsample utilize a quasi-natural experiment related to a 2007 IRS repurchase regulation which imposed additional repurchase-related costs on these firms. The results are robust to a variety of test specifications and proxies for earnings. This link between repurchase costs and positive earnings revisions is broadly consistent with signaling models of payouts and suggests that managers may announce especially costly repurchases when earnings expectations are underestimated by outsiders.

Investor Reactions to Management Attributions: Revisions versus Late Filings Following Preliminary Earnings Announcements

ABSTRACT After releasing preliminary earnings, firms may encounter accounting issues that cause them to announce an earnings revision or fail to meet a filing deadline. We experimentally examine how management attributions (accepting responsibility versus denying responsibility) influence investor reactions to these adverse financial reporting events. We find that investor reactions, as measured by perceptions of management trustworthiness and investment recommendations, to earnings revisions are more favorable (unfavorable) when managers accept (deny) responsibility by attributing the revision to an internal (external) factor. In contrast, investor reactions to late filings are not influenced by these management attributions. We also find that when the announcement does not quantify the earnings revision, accepting responsibility results in more favorable perceptions of management trustworthiness but not more favorable investment recommendations. These findings provide novel insights regarding variability in the effectiveness of management attributions to explain an adverse financial reporting event and the consequences for the public interest. Data Availability: Contact the authors for data.

가결산 이익의 수정이 감사지연에 미치는 영향

가결산 이익의 수정이 감사지연에 미치는 영향

How informative is qualitative management earnings guidance?

In this paper I examine the information content of qualitative management earnings guidance relative to quantitative guidance. Hirst et al. (2008) note that managers may issue earnings forecasts in either qualitative or quantitative forms. Prior research on the consequences of forecast form has focused primarily on different forms of quantitative earnings guidance. This work either finds no effect of forecast form or that more precise guidance is more credible or informative. Using a sample of 14,468 quantitative EPS forecasts and 1265 qualitative EPS forecasts, I find that qualitative bad news forecasts are more informative to investors (i.e., have a stronger market reaction) and analysts (i.e., have larger earnings revisions) than quantitative bad news forecasts. By way of an explanation, I find that qualitative bad news forecasts are more accurate ex post than quantitative bad news forecasts. The results indicate that in the case of bad news EPS forecasts, the qualitative forecast form itself provides a signal to market participants, above and beyond the actual earnings expectation, that the forthcoming earnings surprise may be more negative than anticipated, and that investors and analysts react accordingly.

The Consequences of Audit‐Related Earnings Revisions

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the consequences that auditors and their clients face when earnings announced in an unaudited earnings release are subsequently revised, presumably as a result of year‐end audit procedures, so that earnings as reported in the 10‐K differ from earnings as previously announced. Specifically, we examine whether the likelihood of an auditor “losing the client” is greater following such revisions, and whether the likelihood of dismissal is influenced by revisions that more negatively impact earnings, that cause the client to miss important earnings benchmarks, by greater local auditor competition, or by auditor characteristics. We also examine audit pricing subsequent to audit‐related earnings revisions for evidence of pricing concessions to retain the client. Finally, we examine whether client executives experience a greater likelihood of turnover following an audit‐related earnings revision. Consistent with expectations, we find that auditor dismissals are more likely following audit‐related earnings revisions. We also find that dismissals are more likely when revisions cause clients to miss important benchmarks and when there is greater local auditor competition. Among nondismissing clients, we find that future audit fees are lower when the effect of the revision on earnings is more negative, consistent with auditors offering price concessions to retain clients when revisions are more displeasing. We also find a greater likelihood of future chief financial officer (CFO) turnover as the effect of the revision worsens. Our findings offer important insights into the consequences that auditors face when balancing their responsibility for high audit quality and client satisfaction, as well as into the consequences that CFOs face when releasing inflated but not fully audited earnings.

Discussion of “The Consequences of Audit‐Related Earnings Revisions”

AbstractWe organize our discussion of Haislip, Myers, Scholz, and Seidel (2017) (hereafter HMSS) around three areas: managing auditor business risk, a lack of auditor competence as an alternative story to auditors acting independently for their results, and drawing inferences from archival vis‐à‐vis experimental studies. We conclude our discussion by arguing that the investigation by HMSS sets the stage for future research concerning why earnings revisions occur and why auditors and CFOs appear to bear adverse consequences when they do occur.