Margin Forecasts by Managers and Analysts

Abstract

In this article, the authors study qualitative margin forecasts made by managers in their earnings conference calls as well as forecast revisions of gross margins by financial analysts. Maintaining margins in cases when the costs of input factors rise indicates strength because the firm can pass these increased costs onto its customers. Increased margins when sales increase indicate strong market power by the firm or a better utilization of fixed resources. Decreasing margins when revenues increase typically indicate a strategy of capturing market share. Due to the recent difficulties in supply chains caused by the pandemic and then by inflation pressures, it became more important to study changes in margins forecasted by managers and analysts. The authors provide evidence that these forecasts can improve portfolio returns, especially when used in conjunction with forecast revisions of sales and earnings.