Early Stages Of Project Development Research Articles

Calculation of contingency in construction projects

This paper presents a probabilistic model that considers the random nature of change orders and their impact on the cost and schedule of a construction project. The model incorporates uncertainties in project cost and schedule and calculates the contingency based on the level of confidence specified by the owner. It assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for change orders in a construction project. The effect of schedule delays in further increasing the project cost is considered explicitly and the effect of correlation between change orders is discussed and analytically considered. The proposed model may be used for budgeting purposes at the early stages of project development. Typical applications of the proposed model in the context of construction industry are discussed. A numerical example is presented that demonstrates the use of the model in establishing a budget contingency. The results of the example are compared with actual data from previous construction projects.

Conceptual Models as Tools for Communication Across Disciplines

To better understand and manage complex social-ecological systems, social scientists and ecologists must collaborate. However, issues related to language and research approaches can make it hard for researchers in different fields to work together. This paper suggests that researchers can improve interdisciplinary science through the use of conceptual models as a communication tool. The authors share lessons from a workshop in which interdisciplinary teams of young scientists developed conceptual models of social-ecological systems using data sets and metadata from Long-Term Ecological Research sites across the United States. Both the process of model building and the models that were created are discussed. The exercise revealed that the presence of social scientists in a group influenced the place and role of people in the models. This finding suggests that the participation of both ecologists and social scientists in the early stages of project development may produce better questions and more accurate models of interactions between humans and ecosystems. Although the participants agreed that a better understanding of human intentions and behavior would advance ecosystem science, they felt that interdisciplinary research might gain more by training strong disciplinarians than by merging ecology and social sciences into a new field. It is concluded that conceptual models can provide an inspiring point of departure and a guiding principle for interdisciplinary group discussions. Jointly developing a model not only helped the participants to formulate questions, clarify system boundaries, and identify gaps in existing data, but also revealed the thoughts and assumptions of fellow scientists. Although the use of conceptual models will not serve all purposes, the process of model building can help scientists, policy makers, and resource managers discuss applied problems and theory among themselves and with those in other areas.

Considering value during early project development: a product case study

There is insufficient recognition of the important role that value management has within projects. In the global economy it is difficult to compete, or be viable, if you don’t have high functionality and low cost in the product, or service, to be delivered. A part case study (Hamilton A. Managing for value. Dublin: Oak Tree Press, 1999.) of a project to develop a product, used in low voltage distribution systems, is taken to support the case for a better understanding in integrating value management within the management of projects. Certain tools from value management are presented which when used in the early stages of project development can result in securing the deliverable that will best satisfy the pre-determined requirements.

Distributed Generation Challenges: Air Quality, Siting, Permitting

There are several environmental, engineering, and social issues that affect successful siting of distributed generation. Distributed generation (DG) sources (sources (20 MW) include technologies such as fuel cells, photovoltaics, reciprocating internal combustion engines, small- and micro-turbines, and wind power. Addressing issues prior to equipment operations can include obtaining siting, construction, and operating approvals from multiple regulatory and governmental agencies, as well as possibly undergoing public review and scrutiny. The level of agency involvement is typically dependent on the extent of a DG source's environmental impact. Specific siting issues can arise that may result in project start-up delays, costly permitting, and project cancellation. These issues must be addressed in the early stages of project development. This article presents an overview of the various siting issues, possible approaches to minimizing the uncertainty in the approval process, and examples of distributed gener...

Distributed Generation Challenges: Air Quality, Siting, Permitting

There are several environmental, engineering, and social issues that affect successful siting of distributed generation. Distributed generation (DG) sources (sources (20 MW) include technologies such as fuel cells, photovoltaics, reciprocating internal combustion engines, small- and micro-turbines, and wind power. Addressing issues prior to equipment operations can include obtaining siting, construction, and operating approvals from multiple regulatory and governmental agencies, as well as possibly undergoing public review and scrutiny. The level of agency involvement is typically dependent on the extent of a DG source's environmental impact. Specific siting issues can arise that may result in project start-up delays, costly permitting, and project cancellation. These issues must be addressed in the early stages of project development. This article presents an overview of the various siting issues, possible approaches to minimizing the uncertainty in the approval process, and examples of distributed gener...

Slope stability hazard assessment: Coalport Railway Bridge, Shropshire

Objectives Escalating costs, disputes and delays can arise during construction as a result of inadequate research at the early stages of project development. The assessment of slope stability hazard described in this case history illustrates the relative ease, and therefore low cost, of rapidly accessing and evaluating a wide range of desk study and walkover survey data pertinent to a construction project. The project Coalport is a village on the north bank of the River Severn in the Ironbridge Gorge, near the new town of Telford, Shropshire. Coalport Railway Bridge (BC 17) is at the site of the former Coalport Railway Station. It is immediately adjacent to the much older Coalport (river) Bridge and carries the road from the river bridge across the former railway line (see Figs 1 and 2). As part of a programme of bridge inspection and strengthening, the Commission for New Towns engaged WS Atkins to assess the condition of Railway Bridge BC 17 and make recommendations for remedial measures. An initial inspection of the Railway Bridge concluded that it was in a poor state of repair and that it may be at risk from ground movements caused by landslipping, being in an area that is well known for the presence of landslips (Carson & Fisher 1991). A more detailed desk study, including a walk-over survey, was therefore carried out specifically to assess the landslide hazard at the railway bridge and to help design the ground investigation that was planned as part of the design of remedial works to the bridge’s abutments.

NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO A SMALL MARKET: A DISTRIBUTOR'S PERSPECTIVE

A decision to introduce natural gas supply to a small market requires a thorough examination of the economic and technical factors that a gas distributor will encounter in such a project. This paper identifies the important factors to be considered in the feasibility stage and in the construction and implementation phases of the project. The experience of the Gas and Fuel Corporation of Victoria supplying natural gas to the city of Warrnambool is described through all these stages.A feasibility study for natural gas to a small market requires the preparation of a reliable forecast of end- user demand and an assessment of demand/price elasticities for major market sectors, such as household uses and large industrial uses. Where gas is to be supplied from new gas fields any assessment of proven gas reserves must be made. The assessed level of reserves can be measured against forecast demand to identify an expected project life over which the producer and distributor will need to earn a fair return.A producer and a distributor have a common interest in the level of recoverable reserves, the price between producer and distributor, the market demand and the price payable by end- users. A price agreed between a producer and a distributor will be at a level where both parties are satisfied with the expected returns. A higher price would increase returns to the producer, but would deter the distributor from the project.Natural gas supply to Warrnambool involved the planning and construction of a pipeline and an up­grading and expansion of the local reticulation system. In addition, conversion of nearly 13 000 household appliances was undertaken. This work was successfully completed at a cost of about $10 million. The planning and design of these facilities is a balance between short- term cost minimisation, and cost levels that will achieve long- term economies of scale.To achieve a fast development of the end- use consumption, a strong marketing effort was undertaken to ensure connection of large- use industrial customers was achieved without delay. This quick development of load was essential to provide good cash inflows to the distributor and the producer at an early stage of project development.

The evaluation of the present worth of normally distributed cash flows

The production output of a chemical manufacturing facility only rarely remains at rated capacity throughout the plant's lifetime. The production life cycle often may be approximated by a segment of the normal distribution curve. A method is developed for computing the present worth of normally distributed cash flows and the discounted cash flow profitability index for facilities with a production life cycle which is approximated by the normal distribution curve. It is shown that the resulting value of the profitability is about the same as that for a plant operating steadily at 70% of rated capacity. Adoption of this simple criterion during early stages of project development results in a more realistic assessment of the long range attractiveness of the project.