AbstractBackgroundNeuroinflammation has been established as a key component of Alzheimer’s pathology. Numerous cross‐sectional studies have found associations between neuroinflammatory markers and neuronal damage in AD, suggesting neuroinflammation as a potential drive force of disease progression. However, there have been debate on whether neuroinflammation has a causal effect on disease progression. Here we questioned whether neuroinflammation is predictive of future cognitive decline in early stage of the disease.Method21 MCI patients were recruited and had baseline T1‐MRI and 11C‐PBR28 scans. Patients were followed up for at least one year (mean follow‐up period 3.1±1.3 years) and had mini‐mental state examinations (MMSE) at each visit. 19 of them had baseline 18F‐Flutemetamol PET, 11 had 18F‐AV1451 scans. 18F‐AV1451 and 11C‐PBR28 SUVR in the medial temporal lobe were measured, while PCA analyses were performed to evaluate uptakes in the neocortex for all 3 tracers. Principle components of temporal lobe volumetric measurements were computed as the neurodegeneration marker. A linear growth model was fitted for each subjects using all available time points, giving the intercept and slope of individual cognition trajectory. Age, intercept, 11C‐PBR28, and T1 MRI markers were then put into linear models to predict slope, and a backward model selection procedure was conducted. To further validate that neuroinflammation is not just a mediator of amyloid and tau pathologies, we further included amyloid and tau markers in the sub‐cohorts and inspected the final model.ResultThe average baseline MMSE was 28±1.9 in the study cohort and the average annual change of MMSE was ‐0.46. We found 11C‐PBR28 SUVR in neocortex and MMSE intercept, but not temporal cortical thickness, were predictive of the slope of MMSE decline. In subgroups where 18F‐Flutemetamol and 18F‐AV1451 SUVRs were included respectively, we found neocortical amyloid and tau load were also predictive of MMSE slope, while 11C‐PBR28 SUVR remained its significance in the models.ConclusionOur findings suggest that neuroinflammation is an independent factor that drives disease progression and cognitive decline in early stage of AD. Molecular imaging biomarkers may better predict patients’ outcome as they detect underlying biological processes.