Early Season Research Articles

Seasonal breeding in three sympatric rodent species in semi-arid Tigray, northern Ethiopia

Abstract We investigated the breeding activity of three sympatric rodent species: Stenocephalemys albipes, Mastomys awashensis, and Acomys cahirinus, in the semi-arid region of Tigray in northern Ethiopia, using mark-recapture data, to determine the influence of rainfall on their breeding patterns within exclosure (i.e., protected area from livestock grazing). Breeding activities of S. albipes and M. awashensis commenced during the wet season, continued into the early dry season, and ceased during the subsequent dry season. The proportion of breeding females reached its peak during the wet season, gradually declining until the dry season. In contrast, A. cahirinus exhibited a different breeding strategy, with year-round breeding, including during the dry season, a period characterized by limited resources. A significant difference in the proportion of breeding females among the three species was observed across seasons. Furthermore, all species shared a common trend of heightened breeding activity, particularly at the conclusion of the wet season and the onset of the early dry season. These findings enhance our understanding of the interplay between rainfall and seasonal breeding within exclosures, while other variables remain constant. Moreover, the region’s future plans for managing rodents and the establishment of exclosures must take this information into account.

Stover removal has minimal impact on pennycress seeded into standing corn

AbstractIn the Upper Midwest, corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] are the most prominent agricultural crops, occupying land for only half the year. Their fallow periods are associated with nutrient leaching and soil erosion, but they also represent an opportunity to establish winter‐hardy crops, like pennycress (Thlaspi arvense L.), that can reduce negative environmental impacts while contributing to farm profitability. A lack of agronomic best management practices remains a barrier to pennycress adoption. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the impact of stover presence on pennycress stand establishment and seed yield after seeding pennycress into R4 corn. This study was conducted over the 2014–2015 and 2015–2016 growing seasons with MN106 pennycress at three locations in Minnesota. At maturity, corn plants were removed from plots in 25% increments between 0% and 100% to simulate stover removal scenarios. Pennycress seedlings were unable to compete with corn for available light resources and did not have enough time following corn harvest to establish a dense stand in the autumn with only 5% and 10% green cover in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Despite poor early season emergence, the average seed yield, 1223 kg ha−1, was high relative to other studies using MN106, indicating that challenges of growing pennycress under adverse conditions may not be a barrier to competitive seed yields. Experimentation on the corn–pennycress system should continue in the future to further explore and establish best management practices for this double crop.

Widespread annual occurrence of pesticides within designated critical habitats for endangered prairie butterflies

Insect declines have become pronounced in prairie ecosystems, particularly in areas of agricultural intensification. Non-target pesticide exposure has been raised as a key concern for prairie remnant health. Over seven years, we screened grass and soil samples for the presence and quantities of hundreds of pesticides from five prairies in Minnesota and South Dakota that are designated as Critical Habitat for two globally endangered butterflies: Poweshiek skipperling and Dakota skipper. We documented dozens of pesticides across all sites and years on their larval host grasses. Interiors of prairies were not less likely to have detectable pesticides than along prairie-agriculture edges. Broad-spectrum organophosphate and pyrethroid insecticides were common in late season. Chlorpyrifos quantities were higher at sites where both endangered species have been extirpated. Neonicotinoid insecticides, which have been frequently attributed to declines in insect pollinators, did not present a significant exposure signal in these prairie habitats. Few pesticides were detected in soil or early season grass samples. The prevalence and quantities of pesticides we observed are likely underestimates, and additional research is needed on the landscape of risk at small and large scales. Implications for Conservation: Protected prairies are not immune to the risk of pesticide exposure, which may impact efforts to re-establish lost populations of imperiled prairie insects, including endangered butterflies.

Tropical Atlantic variability in EC-EARTH: impact of the radiative forcing

Understanding the impact of radiative forcing on climate variability and change in the Tropical Atlantic is crucial for different socio-economic sectors, given their substantial impacts in both local and remote regions. To properly evaluate the effect of a changing climate on the variability, the use of standard transient historical and scenario simulations requires very large ensembles. A computationally cheaper alternative implemented in this study consists of performing two 250-year-long atmosphere-ocean coupled simulations with EC-EARTH 3.3 (CMIP6 version) with fixed radiative forcing at the years 2000 and 2050, representative of present and future climate conditions, respectively. The changes in the leading modes of Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), including the Atlantic Niño/Niña and the Subtropical North Atlantic pattern, have been assessed in three target seasons: spring (MAM), summer (JJ) and early winter (ND). While the change in sea surface temperature (SST) climatology shows homogeneous warming, the difference between future and present SST variability exhibits a distinct behaviour consistent along the seasonal cycle, with a decrease in the equatorial region and an increase at subtropical latitudes. This study explores the processes associated with the suppressed/enhanced TAV, with a particular focus on the less-explored early winter season. In agreement with previous studies, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shows a weakening in strength, but the results also show an increase in variability. The AMOC-related deepening of the equatorial thermocline and the flattening linked to weakened trade winds are consistent with the suppressed SST variability of the Atlantic Niño/Niña. On the other hand, the enhanced SST variability at subtropical latitudes is mainly associated with an increase in turbulent heat flux variability, with a minor contribution of the mixed layer depth variability. Variability in turbulent heat flux is influenced primarily by latent heat flux, connected to changes in precipitation variability.

Integrating plant morphological traits with remote-sensed multispectral imageries for accurate corn grain yield prediction.

Sustainable crop production requires adequate and efficient management practices to reduce the negative environmental impacts of excessive nitrogen (N) fertilization. Remote sensing has gained traction as a low-cost and time-efficient tool for monitoring and managing cropping systems. In this study, vegetation indices (VIs) obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) were used to detect corn (Zea mays L.) response to varying N rates (ranging from 0 to 208 kg N ha-1) and fertilizer application methods (liquid urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), urea side-dressing and slow-release fertilizer). Four VIs were evaluated at three different growth stages of corn (V6, R3, and physiological maturity) along with morphological traits including plant height and leaf chlorophyll content (SPAD) to determine their predictive capability for corn yield. Our results show no differences in grain yield (average 13.2 Mg ha-1) between furrow-applied slow-release fertilizer at ≥156 kg N ha-1 and 208 kg N ha-1 side-dressed urea. Early season remote-sensed VIs and morphological data collected at V6 were least effective for grain yield prediction. Moreover, multivariate grain yield prediction was more accurate than univariate. Late-season measurements at the R3 and mature growth stages using a combination of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) in a multilinear regression model showed effective prediction for corn yield. Additionally, a combination of NDVI and normalized difference red edge index (NDRE) in a multi-exponential regression model also demonstrated good prediction capabilities.

Radar Survey of Hail-Producing Storms and Environments during the 2018–19 Severe-Weather Season in the Córdoba Region of Argentina

Abstract Frequent deep convective thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems make the Córdoba region, near the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range, one of the most active areas on Earth for hail activity. Analysis of hail observations from trained observers and social media reports cross-referenced with operational radar observations identified the convective characteristics of hail-producing convective systems in central Argentina over a 6-month period divided into early (October–December 2018) and late seasons (January–March 2019). Reflectivity and dual-polarization characteristics from the Córdoba operational radar [Radar Meteorológico Argentina (RMA1)] were used to identify the convective modes of convective cells at time of positive hail indicators. Analysis of ERA5 upper-air and surface data examined convective environments of hail events and identified representative dynamic and thermodynamic environments. A majority of early season hail-producing cells were classified as discrete convection, while discrete and multicell occurrence evened out in the late season. Most hail-producing cells initiated directly adjacent to the Sierras in the late season, while cell initiation and hail production is further spread out in the early season. Dividing convective events into dynamic/thermodynamic regimes based on values of 1000 J kg−1 of CAPE and vertical wind shear of 20 m s−1 results in most early season events reflecting shear-dominant characteristics (low CAPE, high shear) and most late-season events exhibiting CAPE-dominant characteristics (high CAPE, low shear). Strength and placement of low-level temperature and moisture anomalies/advection and upper-level jets largely defined the differences in the dominant regimes. Significance Statement This study used regional radar data alongside hail reports from trained observers and social media to better understand the types and timing of storms identified as producing hail, given the lower resolution of satellite studies. Dividing the hail season (October–December; January–March) showed that within hail season, early season storms tended to be singular storms that formed across the region in environments with strong vertical winds and weak instability. Late-season storms were a mix of singular storms and multicellular storm systems focused on the mountains in weak vertical winds and strong instability. These results show differences from satellite studies and identify key representative hail-producing radar features and environmental regimes for this region, which could guide hail risk analysis within the severe-weather season.

Different feeding preferences for macronutrients across seasons and sites indicate temporal and spatial nutrient limitation in the black bog ant.

How the resource use by consumers vary in different environments and time scales is one of the fundamental ecological questions. Replicated field studies are rare, however; so the extent to which nutrient use varies and why is uncertain. We studied an endangered tyrphobiotic species, the black bog ant (Formica picea), and its feeding preferences in temperate peatlands. We conducted a baiting experiment at three different sites with high nest densities, repeated over threeyears and three periods of growing season. Preferences for three main macronutrients (carbohydrates, proteins and lipids) were assessed. We hypothesised that if nutrient limitation plays a role, ants will have an increased need for proteins and lipids in early seasons when brood is raised, while carbohydrates use will increase in late seasons. We also expected that site identity would influence nutrient preferences, but not year. Our results supported the nutrient limitation hypothesis for proteins that were consumed more in the early season. In contrast, preference for carbohydrates was rather high and did not increase consistently through season. Although the occupancy of lipid baits was low overall, it increased at colder temperatures, in contrast to carbohydrate and protein baits. Nutrient preferences varied more among sites than years, with the lowest nutrient use observed in a diverse fen-meadow, consistent with the nutrient limitation hypothesis. Year affected ant abundance, but not bait occupancy. Our results suggest that black bog ants flexibly adapt their diet to environmental conditions and that an interplay between nutrient limitation and climate determines their feeding behaviour.

Temporal allele frequency changes in large-effect loci reveal potential fishing impacts on salmon life-history diversity.

Fishing has the potential to influence the life-history traits of exploited populations. However, our understanding of how fisheries can induce evolutionary genetic changes remains incomplete. The discovery of large-effect loci linked with ecologically important life-history traits, such as age at maturity in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), provides an opportunity to study the impacts of temporally varying fishing pressures on these traits. A 93-year archive of fish scales from wild Atlantic salmon catches from the northern Baltic Sea region allowed us to monitor variation in adaptive genetic diversity linked with age at maturity of wild Atlantic salmon populations. The dataset consisted of samples from both commercial and recreational fisheries that target salmon on their spawning migration. Using a genotyping-by-sequencing approach (GT-seq), we discovered strong within-season allele frequency changes at the vgll3 locus linked with Atlantic salmon age at maturity: fishing in the early season preferentially targeted the vgll3 variant linked with older maturation. We also found within-season temporal variation in catch proportions of different wild Atlantic salmon subpopulations. Therefore, selective pressures of harvesting may vary depending on the seasonal timing of fishing, which has the potential to cause evolutionary changes in key life-history traits and their diversity. This knowledge can be used to guide fisheries management to reduce the effects of fishing practices on salmon life-history diversity. Thus, this study provides a tangible example of using genomic approaches to infer, monitor and help mitigate human impacts on adaptively important genetic variation in nature.

A Tomato-Free Period Delays and Reduces Begomovirus Disease in Processing Tomato Fields in a Complex Agroecosystem in Central Brazil.

A mandatory tomato-free period (TFP) was implemented in the state of Goiás, Brazil, in 2007 to help manage diseases caused by whitefly-transmitted begomoviruses. The impact of the TFP was examined in five locations across three states in Central Brazil from 2013 to 2016. Surveys revealed significant differences in begomovirus disease incidence among locations, i.e., low in Guaíra-TFP and Patos de Minas-TFP; moderate-high in Itaberaí-TFP and Morrinhos-TFP; and high in the non-TFP (NTFP) control, Cristalina-NTFP. PCR tests and DNA sequencing were used to validate the symptoms and showed that all collected symptomatic plant samples were infected with tomato severe rugose virus (ToSRV), a common indigenous bipartite begomovirus. Early season surveys (20 to 40 days after transplants [DAT]) in Itaberaí-TFP and Morrinhos-TFP revealed significantly less begomovirus disease in fields established sooner after the TFP (0 to 2 months) compared with incidences in (i) equivalent early planted fields in the Cristalina-NTFP control and (ii) fields established longer after the end of the TFP (>2 to 5 months). Whitefly infestation of crops was detected year-round in all locations and years, and all tested adults were classified in the Bemisia tabaci MEAM1 cryptic species. Infestation levels were significantly higher during the summer but did not vary significantly among locations. Results of monthly monitoring of adult whiteflies for general begomovirus and ToSRV were positively correlated and were indicators of disease incidence in the field. Notably, ToSRV was not detected in whiteflies collected from nontomato plants during the TFP, and there was a longer lag period before detection in whiteflies collected from processing tomatoes for Itaberaí-TFP and Morrinhos-TFP compared with Cristalina-NTFP. Taken together with the low levels of ToSRV infection detected in potential nontomato reservoir hosts at all locations, our results revealed low levels of primary inoculum during the TFP. Thus, even in a complex agroecosystem with year-round whitefly infestation of crops, the TFP was beneficial due to delayed and reduced begomovirus disease pressure during a critical stage of plant development (first month) and for favoring low levels of primary inoculum. Thus, we concluded that the TFP should be part of a regional integrated pest management (IPM) program targeting ToSRV in Brazil.

Curd, seed yield and disease resistance of cauliflower are enhanced by oligosaccharides.

Oligosaccharides have been demonstrated as promoters for enhancing plant growth across several crops by elevating their secondary metabolites. However, the exploration of employing diverse oligosaccharides for qualitative trait improvements in cauliflower largely unknown. This study was intended to uncover the unexplored potential, evaluating the stimulatory effects of three oligosaccharides on cauliflower's curd and seed production. Two experiments were initiated in the early (15 September) and mid-season (15 October). Four treatments were implemented, encompassing a control (water) alongside chitosan oligosaccharide (COS 50 mg.L-1) with a degree of polymerization (DP) 2-10, oligo galacturonic acid (OGA 50 mg.L-1) with DP 2-10 and alginate oligosaccharide (AOS 50 mg.L-1) with DP 2-7. Oligosaccharides accelerated plant height (4-17.6%), leaf number (17-43%), curd (5-14.55%), and seed yield (17.8-64.5%) in both early and mid-season compared to control. These enhancements were even more pronounced in the mid-season (7.6-17.6%, 21.37-43%, 7.27-14.55%, 25.89-64.5%) than in the early season. Additionally, three oligosaccharides demonstrated significant disease resistance against black rot in both seasons, outperforming the control. As a surprise, the early season experienced better growth parameters than the mid-season. However, performance patterns remained more or less consistent in both seasons under the same treatments. COS and OGA promoted plant biomass and curd yield by promoting Soil Plant Analysis Development (SPAD) value and phenol content. Meanwhile, AOS increased seed yield (56.8-64.5%) and elevated levels of chlorophyll, ascorbic acid, flavonoids, while decreasing levels of hydrogen per oxide (H2O2), malondialdehyde (MDA), half maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50), and disease index. The correlation matrix and principal component analysis (PCA) supported these relations and findings. Therefore, COS and OGA could be suggested for curd production and AOS for seed production in the early season, offering resistance to both biotic and abiotic stresses for cauliflower cultivation under field conditions.

Uncertainties from biomass burning aerosols in air quality models obscure public health impacts in Southeast Asia

Abstract. Models suggest that biomass burning causes thousands of premature deaths annually in Southeast Asia due to excessive exposure to particulate matter (PM) in smoke. However, measurements of surface air quality are sparse across the region, and consequently estimates for the public health impacts of seasonal biomass burning, are not well constrained. We use the nested GEOS-Chem model of chemistry and transport (horizontal resolution of 0.25°×0.3125°) to simulate atmospheric composition over Southeast Asia during the peak burning months of March and September in the moderate burning year of 2014. Model simulations with GEOS-Chem indicate that regional surface levels of PM2.5 (fine particulate matter with a diameter ≤2.5 µm) greatly exceed World Health Organization guidelines during the burning seasons, resulting in up to 10 000 premature deaths in a single month. However, the model substantially underestimates the regional aerosol burden compared to satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) (20 %–52 %) and ground-based observations of PM (up to 54 %), especially during the early burning season in March. We investigate potential uncertainties limiting the model representation of biomass burning aerosols and develop sensitivity simulations that improve model–measurement agreement in March (to within 31 %) and increase the estimated number of PM2.5-related premature deaths that month by almost half. Our modifications have a much smaller impact on the same metrics for September, but we find that this is due to canceling errors in the model. Compared to PM2.5 simulated directly with GEOS-Chem, PM2.5 derived from satellite AOD is less sensitive to model uncertainties and may provide a more accurate foundation for public health calculations in the short term, but continued investigation of uncertainties is still needed so that model analysis can be applied to support mitigation efforts. Further reduction of uncertainties can be achieved with the deployment of more aerosol measurements across Southeast Asia.

Screening for Heat and Rain Tolerant Cultivars of Cauliflower for Cultivation in Monsoon Season in the Subtropical Region of Bhutan

There is a shortage of cauliflower in the domestic market during monsoon and early autumn seasons in Bhutan due to the absence of suitable cultivars for cultivation in subtropical region during these seasons. This study was conducted to assess the genotypic variability in yield of different cultivars of cauliflower under heat and rain (flood) stresses in the subtropical region. Four F1 hybrid varieties of cauliflower from the Takii Seeds, Japan (KSB-12.179, KSB-12.180, KSB-18.297 and KSB-20.320) and three F1 hybrid varieties from Syngenta Seeds, India (C-6099, CFL-1522 and Monsoon Queen) were evaluated in August 2022 in open field at ARDC Samtenling. The experiment was laid out in a RCDB design with three replications using Snow Mystique as the check variety. The objective of the study was to identify short duration, rain and heat tolerant varieties of cauliflower for cultivation in the monsoon season (July-August) in the subtropical region of Bhutan. In addition, all the cultivars were further assessed in September, and five cultivars that performed well in monsoon planting were evaluated in November 2022 as the second and third staggered planting trials to find out their performance in late monsoon and main seasons (September-November) respectively. The results from three staggered trials showed that Monsoon Queen matured in 53 days after transplanting (DAT), 56 DAT and 35 DAT in the first, second and third staggered planting trials with the mean head of 462 g, 376 g and 211 g respectively. In comparison, the check variety matured in 142 DAT, 114 DAT and 77 DAT in the first, second and third staggered planting trials with the mean head of 658 g, 403 g and 767 g, respectively. Monsoon Queen was the earliest maturing variety with good head weight and curd quality among the eight cauliflower varieties when transplanted in August 2022. However, both the head yield and curd quality of this cultivar declined in later plantings, indicating that this variety is not suitable for main season (autumn) planting. With the identification of Monsoon Queen as the heat and rain tolerant cultivar in this study, cauliflower can now be grown even in the monsoon season in the subtropical region of Bhutan.

Detecting and quantifying zero tillage technology adoption in Indian smallholder systems using Sentinel-2 multi-spectral imagery

Zero tillage (ZT), an important component of Conservation Agriculture, has enormous potential to curb emissions from residue burning, increase soil organic carbon and water retention, reduce land preparation costs and increase the long-term productivity and profitability of the farming system. Despite the promise of ZT, little is known about how widely it has been adopted at regional scales in smallholder systems, where management is heterogeneous. Identifying ZT diffusion patterns across space and time along with other popular tillage technologies, such as conventional tillage (CT) and shallow tillage (ST), helps to target and disseminate the most effective technologies and estimate their climate change mitigation potential. Acknowledging the complexities involved in distinguishing ZT from CT and ST in smallholder fields, this study utilized an innovative two-step change detection method leveraging early-season Sentinel-2 multi-spectral imagery. We developed and applied our model in the Indian state of Punjab over three years (2020–2022). Our method outperformed traditional binary classification models, achieving 81 % accuracy. The analysis indicated that areas under different tillage types changed over time across Punjab. Specifically, from 2020 to 2021, we found a 33 % and 4 % decrease in ZT and CT, respectively. However, a 29 % increase is observed in CT adoption. On the other hand, from 2021 to 2022, the adoption rates for ZT and CT increased by 18 % and 2 %, respectively, while ST adoption decreased by 12 %. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential use of early season Sentinel-2 imagery to map the adoption of tillage practices in smallholder systems. Our approach can provide large-scale information on technology uptake, aiding policies to implement carbon markets and the scaling up of sustainable agricultural practices in India.

Unraveling weak and short South Asian wet season in the Early Eocene warmth

AbstractThe timing and causative factors underlying the Asian summer monsoon initiation remain contentious as recent proxy data and modeling studies suggested the existence of a wet-dry monsoon-like climate from the Cretaceous period. Leveraging an ensemble of deep-time climate simulations focused on the early Eocene (DeepMIP-Eocene), we show that the early Eocene Asian wet season was notably weaker and shorter than present-day in the absence of an elevated heat source like the Tibetan Plateau. The deficient upper-tropospheric meridional temperature gradient was insufficient to propel the seasonal northward migration of the rainband over South Asia. The weaker cross-equatorial moisture flow encountered obstruction of Gangdese mountain along the southern edge of Asia, leading to significant South Asian aridity. The enhanced greenhouse effect was inadequate to augment the seasonal circulation and rainfall variability to current levels. The altered wet and dry seasonality across South Asia during the early Eocene does not meet the criteria to be classified as a monsoon, suggesting that South Asian monsoon initiation is likely contingent upon a specific level of Tibetan Plateau upliftment.

The effects of protein supplementation, fumagillin treatment, and colony management on the productivity and long-term survival of honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies.

In this study, we intensively measured the longitudinal productivity and survival of 362 commercially managed honey bee colonies in Canada, over a two-year period. A full factorial experimental design was used, whereby two treatments were repeated across apiaries situated in three distinct geographic regions: Northern Alberta, Southern Alberta and Prince Edward Island, each having unique bee management strategies. In the protein supplemented treatment, colonies were continuously provided a commercial protein supplement containing 25% w/w pollen, in addition to any feed normally provided by beekeepers in that region. In the fumagillin treatment, colonies were treated with the label dose of Fumagilin-B® each year during the fall. Neither treatment provided consistent benefits across all sites and dates. Fumagillin was associated with a large increase in honey production only at the Northern Alberta site, while protein supplementation produced an early season increase in brood production only at the Southern Alberta site. The protein supplement provided no long-lasting benefit at any site and was also associated with an increased risk of death and decreased colony size later in the study. Differences in colony survival and productivity among regions, and among colonies within beekeeping operations, were far larger than the effects of either treatment, suggesting that returns from extra feed supplements and fumagillin were highly contextually dependent. We conclude that use of fumagillin is safe and sometimes beneficial, but that beekeepers should only consider excess protein supplementation when natural forage is limiting.

The population dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda after its invasion in Lampung Province, Indonesia

Spodoptera frugiperda is an invasive pest that attacks maize throughout Indonesia. As an invasive pest, the population of S. frugiperda continues to increase exponentially, leading to outbreaks. Both internal factors (biology) and external factors (weather, host, and natural enemies) can affect the growth rate of pest populations. This research was conducted to assess the population dynamics of S. frugiperda based on the extent of its infestation and damage to maize post-invasion in Lampung Province. Observations were made in maize fields in 15 districts of Lampung Province from 2019 to 2022. Damage intensity was calculated based on the leaf damage scale. Weather data from 2019 to 2022 was obtained from the Lampung Province Central Statistics Agency. The research results indicate that upon the initial introduction of S. frugiperda to Lampung Province, the population increased exponentially, as observed based on the level of infestation and damage to maize. There was an outbreak from late 2019 to early 2020, and after that, there was a population decline. The population increase coincided with the early rainy season, which is associated with the beginning of the maize planting season. Although the level of damage to the maize is considered slight, S. frugiperda can cause anywhere between 21.94% to 51.38% of damage.

Propensity of Predator Mimicry in Steller’s Jays

Avian vocal mimicry has been described in a variety of contexts, suggesting its function is multifaceted within and across species; however, basic empirical data describing mimetic signal prevalence and context are lacking for numerous species. We examined the occurrence and context of mimicked Red-shouldered Hawk (Buteo lineatus) calls over a 12-month period in a population of 49 individually color-marked Steller’s Jays (Cyanocitta stelleri). We documented mimicry of Red-shouldered Hawk calls in 14 of 49 (28.6%) jays during this 12-month period. We also reviewed the occurrence of the behavior in historic observation data. Hawk mimicry occurred more often during the early breeding season when jays were within home territories, their mates were present, and aggression was absent. Younger, larger, and bolder jays were most likely to perform imitations. These results suggest jays individually vary in mimetic propensity, and individuals’ proclivity for mimicry may be influenced by social and ecological contexts, physical characteristics, and personality traits.

Enhancing seasonal influenza projections: A mechanistic metapopulation model for long-term scenario planning

In temperate regions, annual preparation by public health officials for seasonal influenza requires early-season long-term projections. These projections are different from short-term (e.g., 1–4 weeks ahead) forecasts that are typically updated weekly. Whereas short-term forecasts estimate what “will” likely happen in the near term, the goal of scenario projections is to guide long-term decision-making using “what if” scenarios. We developed a mechanistic metapopulation model and used it to provide long-term influenza projections to the Flu Scenario Modeling Hub. The scenarios differed in their assumptions about influenza vaccine effectiveness and prior immunity. The parameters of the model were inferred from early season hospitalization data and then simulated forward in time until June 3, 2023. We submitted two rounds of projections (mid-November and early December), with the second round being a repeat of the first with three more weeks of data (and consequently different model parameters). In this study, we describe the model, its calibration, and projections targets. The scenario projection outcomes for two rounds are compared with each other at state and national level reported daily hospitalizations. We show that although Rounds 2 and 3 were identical in definition, the addition of three weeks of data produced an improvement to model fits. These changes resulted in earlier projections for peak incidence, lower projections for peak magnitude and relatively small changes to cumulative projections. In both rounds, all four scenarios presented conceivable outcomes, with some scenarios agreeing well with observations. We discuss how to interpret this agreement, emphasizing that this does not imply that one scenario or another provides the ground truth. Our model's performance suggests that its underlying assumptions provided plausible bounds for what could happen during an influenza season following two seasons of low circulation. We suggest that such projections would provide actionable estimates for public health officials.

High-resolution wave modeling of the Southwestern Nigerian coastal shelf: Implications on geomorphic contrasts between barrier-lagoon and mud coasts

This study characterizes the spatio-temporal wave variability along Southwestern Nigerian coastal and shelf areas in the Gulf of Guinea. This is to provide further insight into the hydrodynamic factors that influence geomorphologic changes on the low-lying coast. Reanalysis wind-field datasets are employed to generate hourly wind forcing for an unstructured WAVEWATCH III model to simulate some bulk wave parameters. The model is validated against data from offshore buoys and satellite altimetry at selected locations near the coast. Results show that the waves have an annual average of significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), and wind speed (u) of ∼0.5 m, 4.1 s, and 3.9 m/s, respectively. They exhibit seasonal spatial variability that is highest in the peak rainy season from July to September (Av. Hs: 0.56–0.79 m; Av. Tp: 4.68–5.18 s; Av. u: 4.30–5.22 m/s) and lowest in the early dry season from November to January (Av. Hs: 0.26–0.34 m; Av. Tp: 3.37–3.80 s; Av. u: 3.25–3.50 m/s). Also, the monthly averaged wave power varies from 0.2 to 2.8 kW/m annually. However, a maximum Hs of 2.2 m that generated power of 9.4 kW/m for 11.1 s was recorded during the peak of the rainy season in August. Overall, waves with relatively low intensity, which can be classified as smooth to moderate, propagate from the southwest direction and decrease towards the coast. The higher Hs and Tp recorded during the peak of rainy and end of dry seasons are attributed to the influence of far-away swells. A comparative assessment indicates that the Barrier-Lagoon coast is highly controlled by waves, while the Mahin mud coast, which witnesses frequent flooding events that degrade its shoreline, has little wave influence. Thus, local subsidence that increases the relative sea level is suggested to be taking place at sections of the muddy coast. This information is crucial for the sustainable engineering design and management of low-lying coasts.

Assessing corn recovery from early season nutrient stress under different soil moisture regimes.

Corn (Zea mays) biomass accumulation and nutrient uptake by the six-leaf collar (V6) growth stage are low, and therefore, synchronizing nutrient supply with crop demand could potentially minimize nutrient loss and improve nutrient use efficiency. Knowledge of corn's response to nutrient stress in the early growth stages could inform such nutrient management. Field studies were conducted to assess corn recovery from when no fertilizer application is made until the V6 growth stage, and thereafter, applying fertilizer rates as those in non-stressed conditions. The early season nutrient stress and non-stress conditions received the same amount of nutrients. As the availability of nutrients for plant uptake is largely dependent on soil moisture, corn recovery from the early season nutrient stress was assessed under different soil moisture regimes induced via irrigation scheduling at 50% and 80% field capacity under overhead and subsurface drip irrigation (SSDI) systems. Peanut (Arachis hypogaea) was the previous crop under all conditions, and the fields were under cereal rye (Secale cereale) cover crop prior to planting corn. At the V6 growth stage, the nutrient concentrations of the early season-stressed crops, except for copper, were above the minimum threshold of sufficiency ranges reported for corn. However, the crops showed poor growth, with biomass accumulation being reduced by over 50% compared to non-stressed crops. Also, the uptake of all nutrients was significantly lower under the early season nutrient stress conditions. The recovery of corn from the early season nutrient stress was low. Compared to non-stress conditions, the early season nutrient stress caused 1.58 Mg ha-1 to 3.4 Mg ha-1 yield reduction. The percent yield reduction under the SSDI system was 37.6-38.2% and that under the overhead irrigation system was 11.7-13%. The high yield reduction from the early season nutrient stress under the SSDI system was because of water stress conditions in the topsoil soil layer. The findings of the study suggest ample nutrient supply in the early season growth stage is critical for corn production, and thus, further studies are recommended to determine the optimum nutrient supply for corn at the initial growth stages.