Survival Of Early Life Stages Research Articles

Two Decades of Match-Mismatch in Northeast Arctic Cod – Feeding Conditions and Survival

The successful recruitment of Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod is thought to depend on sufficient and suitable prey for the newly hatched larvae, in particular the nauplii stages of the lipid-rich calanoid copepod species Calanus finmarchicus. The role of spatial and temporal variations in prey availability in combination with temperature and other factors in influencing growth and survival of cod larvae is, however, incompletely understood. By combining an individual based model for NEA cod larvae at the Norwegian coast with a high-resolution ocean model and a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus model providing 18 years of daily environmental conditions and prey availability we assessed larval growth and survival until they settle in their feeding habitat in the Barents Sea in early fall. We find on average a two-week delay from the peak timing of first-feeding cod larvae to the peak in prey availability. In warm years, more larvae experience food limitation than in normal years. The positive effects of high temperature on growth, survival and ultimately recruitment are nonetheless larger than the negative effects of food limitation. Food limitation mainly affects larvae spawned in southern areas or late in the spawning season as these larvae experience the highest temperatures and have the highest energy requirements. Our findings highlight the spatial and temporal differences in mechanisms that regulate growth and survival of early life stages of NEA cod and suggest that spatially resolved data may be essential for understanding match-mismatch dynamics.

Microscopic life stages of Arctic kelp differ in their resilience and reproductive output in response to Arctic seasonality

ABSTRACT Kelp forests are important habitats in the strongly environmentally and seasonally variable Arctic. There is a critical lack of knowledge about how seasonal conditions and climate change scenarios influence survival and reproduction of kelp early life stages. To better understand the regulation of kelp life cycle processes in this harsh environment we focused on the physiological performance and reproductive success of early life stages in Alaria esculenta and Laminaria digitata from Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen. Gametophyte growth and survival during Arctic winter and subsequent sporophyte recruitment under spring conditions were investigated. Winter conditions (2°C, complete darkness) halted gametophyte growth and prevented the onset of gametogenesis in both species. The gametophytes of L. digitata but not A. esculenta became fertile after returning to spring conditions, suggesting that sporogenesis, sexual reproduction and recruitment in A. esculenta must occur successively during summer/autumn while in L. digitata a new generation of sporophytes could develop from over-wintering gametophytes. The effects of simulated canopy shading (offering protection against extreme irradiance stress, particularly as sea ice retreats), present-day and projected Arctic summer seawater temperatures, and nutrient levels on gametophyte survival, fertility and sporophyte recruitment success were also investigated in both species. A. esculenta gametophytes had greater survival and reproductive success than L. digitata, except under very low light (simulating dense canopy). In contrast, shading was required for reproductive success in L. digitata gametophytes. Predicted summer temperatures of 9°C reduced sexual reproduction in both species. Interactions observed between these environmental drivers probably reflect species-specific seasonal patterns of survival and reproduction. These differences between kelp species in response to abiotic factors and light levels (simulated canopy shading) suggest that climate change could alter community structure in the Arctic through effects on sexual reproduction and sporophyte recruitment success. HIGHLIGHTS• Gametophytes were able to endure long periods of darkness.• Parental kelp canopy is key for gametophyte survival and recruitment.• Climate change may alter kelp recruitment patterns.

Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) hatching in the Hudson Bay system

Buoyant Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) eggs are found at the surface or at the ice-water interface in winter. While winter temperatures in saline waters fall below 0°C, the temperature in areas affected by under-ice river plumes is slightly higher. Under-ice river plumes may therefore provide thermal refuges favoring the survival of the vulnerable early life stages of Arctic cod. Thermal refuges would allow early hatchers to survive, benefit from a long growing period, and add to the number of individuals recruiting to the adult population: These expectations define the freshwater winter refuge hypothesis. More than 42 rivers drain into Hudson Bay making it particularly well suited to test this hypothesis. Whereas the bulk of Arctic cod observed in Hudson Bay hatch between mid-April and June, some larvae hatch as early as January. We used two independent but complementary methods to test the hypothesis: (1) Lagrangian model simulations that traced back the planktonic trajectories of the sampled larvae and (2) measurements of the concentration of strontium-88 in the otolith cores. Throughout the Hudson Bay system, Lagrangian simulations revealed that early hatchers were more likely to hatch in lower surface salinities and that larvae reaching larger prewinter lengths were likely to have hatched near or within estuaries. Analysis of otolith microchemistry showed that larvae with low strontium-88 concentration in the otolith core, indicating a low salinity hatch location, had hatched earlier and thus had a longer growth period before freeze-up. These results show the potential for Arctic cod persistence in the Arctic where freshwater input is projected to increase and the ice regime is predicted to become more seasonal, provided that the surface temperatures remain below embryonic and larval lethal limits.

Janzen–Connell effects partially supported in reef‐building corals: adult presence interacts with settler density to limit establishment

In many plant and sessile marine invertebrate (SMI) taxa, population and community dynamics are heavily influenced by processes occurring during the dispersal and establishment phases. The Janzen–Connell (J–C) hypothesis predicts increased survival of early life stages with decreasing conspecific density and increased distance from conspecific adults. Evidence of J–C effects in maintaining diversity is common in plant communities, but its importance in SMI communities remains unclear. Under controlled aquarium conditions, we examined the effect of density‐dependence and adult conspecific water treatments (absent/present) on propagule settlement success and settler post‐settlement survival, along with associated spatial patterns, for six broadcast‐spawning, reef‐building coral species from three families. We also tested if settlement success was linked to increasing propagule species diversity for three coral species from two families. We found that the probability of settlement was density independent and not influenced by adult present water treatments. Yet, adult present water treatments and settler density did have a synergistic negative effect on the probability of short‐term settler survival for all species examined. Settlers also showed greater spatial aggregation as their numbers increased, but were less aggregated in adult present water treatments compared to those in adult absent water treatments. We further show evidence of significant species interactions among propagules, as settlement in single‐species trials was four‐fold higher compared to mixed‐species trials. Our findings from controlled experimental arenas indicate that the early establishment of corals was predominantly limited by density‐dependent settler–adult interactions among conspecifics and propagule–propagule interactions among heterospecifics. Thus, the proximity to established conspecific adults, settler density and species diversity of propagules are relevant drivers of local coral community diversity and structure. Based on these outcomes, we suggest that the J–C hypothesis, with demonstrated importance for plants, is partially upheld for reef corals.

Linking variability in early life growth of Sardinella lemuru to changes in habitat conditions in Zamboanga upwelling system, Sulu Sea, the Philippines

The year-class success of small pelagic fish is strongly modulated by the growth and survival of early life stages. Determining how environments control growth is critical to understanding processes influencing annual production. We provide the first measurements of larval growth in Sardinella lemuru, the most abundant and exploited tropical sardine species in the Philippines. Growth rates of larvae were examined across a 2 yr period (2011-2012 and 2012-2013 spawning seasons) using otolith microstructure analysis. Transition to the juvenile stage occurred within 25 to 37 d. Mean growth rate of the 2011 year-class was significantly lower than the 2012 year-class despite significant intra-annual (batch) differences in growth trajectories. In both years, larvae that hatched and developed in the cooler yet prey-rich period in the middle of the spawning season (January) displayed the fastest growth, while those spawned early (September-October 2012) and late (February-March 2012) showed the slowest growth rates. Peak hatch-months (December 2011 and October 2012) were just prior to periods of upwelling, with mean prey concentrations of 0.24 ± 0.13 mg m-3 at 26.35 ± 2.56°C sea surface temperature (SST) and 0.23 ± 0.15 mg m-3 at 26.26 ± 1.79°C, respectively. The SST during upwelling was 0.01 to 1.23°C cooler accompanied by a 0.07 to 0.45 mg m-3 increase in prey concentration. In both years, differences in growth rate were strongly linked to oceanographic conditions. Moderate winds during a ‘neutral’ El Niño-Southern Oscillation year resulted in upwelling conditions favoring faster overall growth in larvae which was associated with stronger recruitment. In contrast, slower growth and weaker recruitment were associated with weak upwelling conditions in the 2011-2012 La Niña year. While temperature may be important, larval growth rates appear to be driven more by prey abundance.

The pantophysin gene and its relationship with survival in early life stages of Atlantic cod.

Genetic markers are widely used in fisheries management around the world. While the genetic structure and markers selected are usually based on samples from the wild, very few controlled experiments have been carried out to investigate possible differences in influence on traits between markers. Here we examine the bi-allelic gene pantophysin (Pan I), widely used in the management of Atlantic cod, in a series of in vitro crosses under a range of temperatures. It has been proposed that this gene, or another tightly linked gene, may be under strong divergent selection. Resolving this issue is essential in order to interpret results when using this gene marker for stock management. We found no evidence of departure from the expected 1 : 2 : 1 Mendelian ratio for any of the three genotypes during the egg stage, while both the 6 and 12°C temperature regimes in tank experiments favoured the survival of the Pan IAA genotype. No difference in genotype survival was, however, found in a more natural mesocosm environment. Collectively, these results suggest that for the early life stages of Atlantic cod, and under the current experimental conditions, there is no strong consistent influence of Pan I genotype on survival. The results also emphasize the importance of varied experimental studies to verify the importance of environmental factors influencing genotype selection.

Trophic sources and linkages to support mesozooplankton community in the Kuroshio of the East China Sea

AbstractMany migratory fishes reproduce and recruit around the Kuroshio, and their survival of early life stages is supported by mesozooplankton. Mesozooplankton standing stocks and productivity equivalent to those on the continental shelf have been found in the Kuroshio; however, there is limited information on trophic sources and linkages to support the mesozooplankton community. Here, we evaluate mesozooplankton feeding on protists and their trophodynamics importance by removal bottle experiments in the Kuroshio of the East China (ECS‐Kuroshio). Pico‐ and nano‐autotrophs dominated chlorophyll a concentrations throughout the study sites across the continental shelf, within the Kuroshio path and in adjacent waters. Calanoid and poecilostomatoid copepods comprised more than 85% of mesozooplankton biomass. Significant mesozooplankton ingestion rates were found for nano‐autotrophs based on size‐fractionated chlorophyll; for haptophytes, chrysophytes, chlorophytes, and diatoms from pigment‐based phytoplankton analysis; and for naked ciliates in the microzooplankton. Based on the estimates of individual carbon budgets, nano‐autotrophs and naked ciliates ingested by mesozooplankton composed 39% of their food requirements, suggesting other available prey like nano‐heterotrophs. These results imply that mesozooplankton ingestion in the ECS‐Kuroshio has great impacts on protozoan and phytoplankton communities and their major trophic pathways are from nano‐sized auto‐ and heterotrophs and ciliates to copepods.

The effect of oceanographic variability on the distribution of larval fishes of the northern Bering and Chukchi seas

We investigated the pelagic habitat requirements of Arctic larval fish and the effects of interannual variability of ocean conditions on their distribution. We examined the distribution of larval Arctic cod, Bering flounder, yellowfin sole and capelin in the Chukchi and northern Bering seas during two years with different oceanographic conditions. We found that despite marked changes in water mass distribution, the distributions of larval fishes were not significantly different between the two years. In both years, Arctic cod and Bering flounder were found in cold, high salinity shelf waters advected from the south and influenced by winter cooling (Chukchi Winter Water and Anadyr Water mix). Yellowfin sole and capelin distributions were also similar from year-to-year but they were only found in warm, low salinity Alaska Coastal Water. The cold, high salinity water masses had elevated large copepod biomass, and the Alaska Coastal Water had elevated small copepod biomass. Thus, we propose that these water masses provided different but nonetheless potentially profitable foraging habitat for the four species of larval fishes. We conclude by suggesting that the timing and location of spawning of these species has evolved such that larval offspring are distributed in suitable foraging habitat despite interannual variability in ocean conditions. This study provides a baseline of Arctic larval fish distribution and insight into the degree of climate variability that might be expected to impact early life history stages of larval fish. Our results also increase the knowledge of the mechanistic links between oceanography and the early life history of fish. Because growth and survival of early life stages of fish often drives population change, our results contribute to the understanding of the impacts of climate change on Arctic fish populations.

Highly variable rates of survival to metamorphosis in wild boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas)

AbstractLife history theory suggests that long‐lived, pond‐breeding amphibians should have low and highly variable early life‐stage survival rates, but this theoretical expectation is often untested and the causes of variation are usually unknown. We evaluated the impact of hydroperiod, presence of a pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]), presence of a potential predator (cutthroat trout Oncorhychus clarki stomias), and whether animals had been reintroduced into a site on survival of early life stages of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas). We used a multistate mark‐recapture framework to estimate survival of boreal toad embryos from egg to metamorphosis at four sites over 5 years. We found substantial spatial and temporal variation in survival to metamorphosis and documented some evidence that monthly tadpole survival was lower in sites with Bd, without trout, and at permanent sites. Our results support theories of amphibian life history, aid in the management of this species of conservation concern, and contribute to our knowledge of the ecology of the species. Additionally, we present methodology that allows practitioners to account for different lengths of time between sampling periods when estimating survival probabilities which is especially applicable to organisms with distinct biological stages.

A compendium of ecological knowledge for restoration of freshwater fishes in Australia

Many freshwater fishes are imperilled globally, and there is a need for easily accessible, contemporary ecological knowledge to guide management. This compendium contains knowledge collated from over 600 publications and 27 expert workshops to support the restoration of 9 priority native freshwater fish species, representative of the range of life-history strategies and values in south-eastern Australia’s Murray–Darling Basin. To help prioritise future research investment and restoration actions, ecological knowledge and threats were assessed for each species and life stage. There is considerable new knowledge (80% of publications used were from the past 20 years), but this varied among species and life stages, with most known about adults, then egg, juvenile and larval stages (in that order). The biggest knowledge gaps concerned early life stage requirements, survival, recruitment, growth rates, condition and movements. Key threats include reduced longitudinal and lateral connectivity, altered flows, loss of refugia, reductions in both flowing (lotic) and slackwater riverine habitats, degradation of wetland habitats, alien species interactions and loss of aquatic vegetation. Examples and case studies illustrating the application of this knowledge to underpin effective restoration management are provided. This extensive ecological evidence base for multiple species is presented in a tabular format to assist a range of readers.

Salinity tolerance during early development of threatened Murray hardyhead (Craterocephalus fluviatilis) to guide environmental watering

Abstract The worldwide reduction in wetlands has led to the large‐scale decline of wetland‐dependent species. In Australia, to redress some of the decline, partial restoration of the hydrology of a small number of wetlands has been attempted using allocations of environmental water. A common goal of the watering is the maintenance and enhancement of native fish communities, which historically have included populations of the salt tolerant Murray hardyhead (Craterocephalus fluviatilis), a small, short‐lived fish, endemic to the lower Murray–Darling Basin. Despite the addition of environmental water to several sites at which the species is known to persist, populations continue to decline. This decline is, at least in part, suspected to be a consequence of salinities that conflict with the breeding ecology and survival of early life stages. Here the effect of salinity on egg hatch rate and the upper salinity tolerance of larval and juvenile Murray hardyhead was determined under laboratory conditions. It was found that eggs were vulnerable to elevated salinities, whereas juveniles were capable of tolerating salinities up to 105 ppt. Based on the results of the experiment, brackish wetlands managed for Murray hardyhead should be maintained, where possible, between 12 and 45 ppt. Such a salinity regime will necessitate less intensive management of salinity, and a reduced volume of environmental water, providing both environmental and fiscal benefits. The research highlights the benefits of investment in targeted research.

Stress across life stages: Impacts, responses and consequences for marine organisms

Population dynamics of marine organisms are strongly driven by their survival in early life stages. As life stages are tightly linked, environmental stress experienced by organisms in the early life stage can worsen their performance in the subsequent life stage (i.e. carry-over effect). However, stressful events can be ephemeral and hence organisms may be able to counter the harmful effects of transient stress. Here, we analysed the published data to examine the relative strength of carry-over effects on the juvenile growth of marine organisms, caused by different stressors (hypoxia, salinity, starvation, ocean acidification and stress-induced delayed metamorphosis) confronted in their larval stage. Based on 31 relevant published studies, we revealed that food limitation had the greatest negative carry-over effect on juvenile growth. In the laboratory, we tested the effects of short-term early starvation and hypoxia on the larval growth and development of a model organism, polychaete Hydroides elegans, and assessed whether the larvae can accommodate the early stress to maintain their performance as juveniles (settlement and juvenile growth). Results showed that early starvation for 3 days (∼50% of normal larval period) retarded larval growth and development, leading to subsequent reduced settlement rate and juvenile growth. When the starvation period decreased to 1 day, however, the larvae could recover from early starvation through compensatory growth and performed normal as juveniles (c.f. control). Early exposure to hypoxia for 3 days did not affect larval growth (body length) and juvenile growth (tube length), but caused malformation of larvae and reduced settlement rate. We conclude that the adverse effects of transient stress can be carried across life stages (e.g. larval to juvenile stage), but depend on the duration of stressful events relative to larval period. As carry-over effects are primarily driven by energy acquisition, how food availability varies over time and space is fundamental to the population dynamics of marine organisms.

Diet predictions of Lake Ontario salmonines based on fatty acids and correlations between their fat content and thiamine concentrations

Thiamine Deficiency Complex (TDC) limits early life stage survival of salmonines. Consuming fatty prey has been hypothesized as a cause of thiamine deficiency; however, this relationship has not been evaluated in the Laurentian Great Lakes where TDC occurs. We found that alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) have higher lipid content than other common Lake Ontario prey fish. In addition, alewife were predicted as the most consumed prey for brown trout (Salmo trutta), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), coho salmon (O. kisutch), lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), and steelhead trout (O. mykiss); however, the relative importance of alewife in diet composition varied within and among species. Overall, species with greater predicted consumption of alewife had lower egg and muscle thiamine concentrations. Negative correlations between thiamine concentrations and both lipid content and fatty acid concentrations (mg/mg of wet tissue) were limited to brown trout. Similarly, negative correlations between fatty acid proportions (i.e., cumulative proportions of polyunsaturated fatty acids [PUFA] and monounsaturated fatty acids [MUFA]) and thiamine concentrations were only observed for brown and lake trout. Combining data from all species produced curvilinear correlations between thiamine concentrations (egg and muscle) and fatty acid composition (eggs and belly flap). Proportions of PUFAs had negative correlations with thiamine concentrations while proportions of MUFAs had positive correlations. These results provide evidence that, in some cases, salmonine fatty acid composition negatively correlates with thiamine concentrations in Lake Ontario; however, additional research is needed to confirm that this mechanism causes TDC in salmonines, and to understand additional factors potentially associated with TDC.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of predators and survival of marine fish early life stages: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the North Sea

Predation is one of the principle factors regulating the survival of early-life stages and recruitment success of marine fishes. Although challenging, it is important to understand how predation mortality varies in space and how this spatial variability affects the temporal dynamics of fish recruitment. We investigated the spatiotemporal variability in the magnitude of predation mortality and survival of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the North Sea by combining a Lagrangian individual-based model of cod early-life stages (eggs, larvae and age-0 juveniles) with an Eulerian representation of its fish predators based on field data collected quarterly from 1991 to 1997. The mean and variance (spatial and inter-annual) in survival of cod were different between simulations using homogeneous and heterogeneous spatial distributions of predators. Survival of cod through its early-life period was 1 order of magnitude higher in simulations using heterogeneous versus homogenous predator distributions, mainly due to reduced mortality of eggs and larvae in the former simulation. Our model predicted markedly different year-to-year changes in cod survival, when heterogeneous predator fields were implemented. In the heterogeneous simulation, Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and grey gurnard (Eutrigla gurnadus) emerged as the most important predators comprising, respectively, 68% and 13% of the predation mortality caused by 7 predators included in our study. A low (<0.1%) survival was predicted for cod progeny originating from known spawning grounds in the central and south-eastern North Sea while considerably higher survival (between 0.8 and 1%) was predicted for northern spawning areas and in the Southern Bight. Numerical sensitivity experiments indicated that seasonal and annual changes in the spatial distribution of predators were more important to the inter-annual variability in the modelled cod survival (52% of the mean survival) than annual changes in the biomass of predators (23%) and the variability of the North Sea hydrography (19%) with the relative importance of these factors depending on the life stage of cod. We argue that including spatial dynamics of predators will advance the predictive capacity of fish early-life stage models enabling more robust, science-based advice for spatially-explicit fishery management and marine spatial planning.

Effects of the harmful algae, Alexandrium catenella and Dinophysis acuminata, on the survival, growth, and swimming activity of early life stages of forage fish

The effects of co-occurring harmful algal blooms (HABs) on marine organisms is largely unknown. We assessed the individual and combined impacts of the toxin producing HABs, Alexandrium catenella and Dinophysis acuminata, and a non-toxin-producing HAB (Gymnodinium instriatum) on early life stages of two estuarine fish species (Menidia beryllina and Cyprinodon variegatus). Lethal (i.e. time to death) and sublethal (i.e. growth, grazing rate, and swimming activity) effects of cultured HABs were investigated for eleutheroembryo and larval life stages. Mixed algal treatments (i.e. A. catenella and D. acuminata mixtures) were often equally toxic as A. catenella monoculture treatments alone, although responses depended on the fish species and life stage. Fish exposed to toxin producing HABs died significantly sooner (i.e. <1–3 days) than controls. Significant differences in sublethal effects were also found between fed controls and toxic HAB treatments, although responses were often similar to G. instriatum or starved controls. Collectively, the results demonstrate that HABs may reduce fish productivity and fitness.

Hatching success and survival of fish early life stages in a chronic exposure to nevirapine: a case study of the Mozambique tilapia

ABSTRACTThe anti-retroviral nevirapine has been detected in surface waters throughout South Africa and its effects on non-target aquatic animals are still unknown. The aim was to investigate the potential effects of nevirapine on the hatching success and survival of Oreochromis mossambicus early life stages through a chronic exposure. The exposer started with newly fertilized O. mossambicus eggs and concluded 30 days after hatching. Environmental relevant concentration of nevirapine (1.48 µg/l) was used in a static renewal system and a controlled environment (27 ± 1°C; 14:10 day/night cycle). The main endpoints assessed included hatching success and survival; a morphological assessment was also done on whole individual on day 1 and 30 post-hatching to identify any physical abnormality. Nevirapine had no noticeable effects on the hatching success and survival of O. mossambicus larvae; no statistically significant differences were observed between the control and the nevirapine exposed fish (p > 0.05).

Reduced Acid Deposition Leads to a New Start for Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) in an Acidified Lake in Southern Norway

Acid deposition has led to acidification and loss of fish populations in thousands of lakes and streams in Norway. Since the peak in the late 1970s, acid deposition has been greatly reduced and acidified surface waters have shown chemical recovery. Biological recovery, in particular fish populations, however, has lagged behind. Long-term monitoring of water chemistry and fish populations in Lake Langtjern, south-eastern Norway, shows that around 2008, chemical recovery had progressed to the point at which natural reproduction of brown trout (Salmo trutta) reoccurred. The stocked brown trout reproduced in the period 2008–2014, probably for the first time since the 1960s, but reproduction and/or early life stage survival was very low. The results indicate that chemical thresholds for reproduction in this lake are approximately pH = 5.1, Ali = 26 μg l−1, ANC = 47 μeq l−1, and ANCoaa = 10 μeq l−1 as annual mean values. These thresholds agree largely with the few other cases of documented recovery of brown trout in sites in Norway, Sweden, and the UK. Occurrence and duration of acidic episodes have decreased considerably since the 1980s but still occur and probably limit reproduction success.

Modelling effects of time-variable exposure to the pyrethroid beta-cyfluthrin on rainbow trout early life stages

BackgroundAvailable literature and regulatory studies show that the severity of effects of beta-cyfluthrin (a synthetic pyrethroid) on fish is influenced by the magnitude and duration of exposure. To investigate how the exposure pattern to beta-cyfluthrin (constant vs peak) may influence the response of the fish, we used a mechanistic effect model to predict the survival and growth of the rainbow trout over its early life stages (i.e. egg, alevin and swim-up fry). We parameterized a toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic (TKTD) module in combination with a dynamic energy budget model enabling us to describe uptake and elimination, as well as to predict the threshold concentration for survival and sublethal effects (feeding behaviour and growth). This effect model was calibrated using data from an early life stage experiment where trout was exposed to a constant concentration of cyfluthrin. The model was validated by comparing model predictions to independent data from a pulsed-exposure study with early life stages of rainbow trout.ResultsThe co-occurrence of effects on behaviour and growth raised the possibility that these were interrelated, i.e. impairment of feeding behaviour may have led to reduced food intake and slower growth. We, therefore, included ‘effect on feeding’ as mode of action in the TKTD module. At higher concentrations, the constant exposure led to death. The model was able to adequately capture this effect pattern in the calibration. The model was able to adequately predict the response of fish eggs, alevins and swim-up fry, from both the qualitative (response pattern) and quantitative points of view.ConclusionsSince the model was successfully validated, it can be used to predict survival and growth of early life stages under various realistic time-variable exposure profiles (e.g. profiles from FOCUS surface water modelling) of beta-cyfluthrin.

How survival curves affect populations' vulnerability to climate change.

Human activities are exposing organisms not only to direct threats (e.g. habitat loss) but also to indirect environmental pressures such as climate change, which involves not just directional global warming but also increasing climatic variability. Such changes will impact whole communities of organisms and the possible effects on population dynamics have raised concerns about increased extinction rates. Conservation-minded approaches to extinction risk vary from range shifts predicted by climate envelope models with no population dynamics to population viability analyses that ignore environmental variability altogether. Our modelling study shows that these extremes are modelling responses to a spectrum of environmental sensitivity that organisms may exhibit. We show how the survival curve plays a major role in how environmental variability leads to population fluctuations. While it is often supposed that low-fecundity organisms (those with high parental investment) will be the most vulnerable to climate change, it is those with high fecundity (low parental investment) that are likely to be more sensitive to such changes. We also find that abundance variations in high fecundity populations is driven primarily by fluctuations in the survival of early life stages, the more so if those environmental changes are autocorrelated in time. We show which types of conservation actions are most appropriate for a number of real populations. While the most effective conservation actions for organisms of low fecundity is to avoid killing them, for populations with high fecundity (and low parental investment), our study suggests conservation should focus more on protecting early life stages from hostile environments.

Climate variability and sardine recruitment in the California Current: A mechanistic analysis of an ecosystem model

AbstractRecruitment varies substantially in small pelagic fish populations. Understanding of the mechanisms linking environment to recruitment is essential for the effective management of fisheries resources. In this study, we used a fully coupled end‐to‐end ecosystem model to study the effect of climate variability on sardine recruitment in the California Current System during 1965–2006. Ocean variability was represented by ROMS hydrodynamic and NEMURO biogeochemical models, and sardine population dynamics was simulated through a full life cycle individual‐based model. Model analysis was designed to elucidate how changes in abiotic and biotic conditions may impact the spawning habitats, early life stage survival, and ultimately recruitment of sardine. Our findings revealed the importance of spatial processes to shape early life stages dynamics. Shifts in spawning habitats were dictated by the spatial variations in temperature and the behavioral movement of adults. Additionally, the spatial match of eggs with warmer temperatures and larvae with their prey influenced their survival. The northward shifts in spawning locations and the accomplishment of good recruitment in warmer years agreed with existing knowledge. Egg production and survival during egg and yolk‐sac larval stages were key factors to drive the long‐term variations in recruitment. Finally, our analysis provided a quantitative assessment of climate impact on year‐to‐year variation in sardine recruitment by integrating multiple hypotheses.