Early Anticipation Research Articles

Ex ante assessment of disruptive threats: Identifying relevant threats before one is disrupted

The shortening of product life-cycles accompanied by the rapid development of new products and dissolving industry boundaries are indicative of a multitude of potentially disruptive threats. The survival of incumbents depends on their capability to effectively anticipate and manage such threats. Thus, the early anticipation of disruptive threats to react or prepare for their impacts is a crucial topic in practice and academia. Although the current body of knowledge provides numerous approaches to disruption anticipation, a comprehensive conceptualisation of the evolution of disruptive threats is missing. Moreover, incumbents lack guidance on how to effectively anticipate disruptive threats. To address this gap, we propose the Disruption Evolution Framework (DEF), which conceptualises the course of disruptive threats along three phases (i.e. threat possible, apparent, and materialised) as well as distinguishes four interrelated categories of signals (i.e. context, catalyst, capability, and company signals) and threats (i.e. customer, competitor, product, and policy threats). Building on the DEF, we also propose the Disruptability Assessment Method (DAM), which enables incumbents to systematically assess disruptive threats via a step-by-step procedure. We evaluated the DAM in the Corporate Development and the Global Digital Partnerships departments of an insurance company. Overall, our work contributes to the descriptive and prescriptive knowledge on disruption anticipation.

Determinants of neonatal mortality at neonatal intensive care unit in Northeast Ethiopia: unmatched case-control study

BackgroundGlobally, in 2016, about 38% and 3% of all neonatal death were recorded in sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia, respectively. In the same year, 47 neonates out of 1000 live births were not surviving in the first 28 days of age in the Amhara region, Ethiopia. Despite the highest burden of neonatal death in the region, specific or the proximate determinants of neonatal death in the neonatal intensive care unit were not well identified.ObjectiveThis study aimed to identify the determinants of neonatal mortality at neonatal intensive care unit in Dessie Referral Hospital, Northeast Ethiopia.MethodsAn institution-based unmatched case-control study was conducted on neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Dessie Referral Hospital, from January 1, 2016, to December 30, 2017. A total of 390 charts (130 cases and 260 controls) were selected by simple random sampling technique. The data were abstracted from the facility-based data abstraction form. A binary logistic regression analysis was fitted to identify the determinants of neonatal mortality.ResultsPregnancy-induced hypertension (AOR = 4.57; 95% CI 1.45–14.43), prolonged rupture of membrane (AOR = 2.04; 95% CI 1.13–3.68), very low birth weight (AOR = 7.00; 95% CI 2.10–23.35), and low birth weight (AOR = 2.12; 95% CI 1.10–4.20) were identified factors. Moreover, respiratory distress syndrome (AOR = 3.61; 95% CI 1.10–12.04), perinatal asphyxia (AOR = 2.27; 95% CI 1.18–4.39), meconium aspiration syndrome (AOR = 2.35; 95% CI 1.12–4.97), and infection (AOR = 2.26; 95% CI 1.34–3.82) were also significantly associated with neonatal death.ConclusionsPregnancy-induced hypertension, prolonged rupture of membrane, low birth weight, respiratory distress syndrome, perinatal asphyxia, meconium aspiration syndrome, and infections were the major determinants of neonatal mortality. Therefore, special attention will be given to small and sick babies. Moreover, early anticipation of complications and management of mothers who had pregnancy-induced hypertension and prolonged rupture of the membrane would save neonates.

Autistic Traits Affect Reward Anticipation but not Reception

Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) have been linked to aberrant reward processing, but it remains unclear whether it is a general dysfunction or limited to social stimuli, and whether it affects both phases of reward processing, namely anticipation and reception. We used event-related brain potentials and a population-based approach to investigate reward anticipation and reception to socially relevant (i.e., picture of experimenter’s face showing approval/disapproval) and monetary rewards in 51 neurotypical individuals with varying levels of autistic traits. Higher autistic traits were associated with enhanced reward anticipation across reward types in the early anticipation phase (triggered by incentive cues), but not in the late anticipation phase (directly before reward reception), as reflected by the CNV component. The P3 component in response to reward reception showed a general increase for monetary outcomes, which was not modulated by autistic traits. These results suggest that higher autistic traits are related to enhanced reward anticipation, but do not modulate reward reception. No interaction between reward types and autistic traits was observed. We propose that the relevance of social rewards had higher reward value than commonly used pictures of strangers, which specifically normalised responses for individuals with high autistic traits.

Managing breakthrough pain for advanced malignancy in elderly patients: A real challenge

Pain management in advanced cancer patients using opioids like morphine is challenging due to presence of predisposing factors like renal insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, hypoproteinemia, hypoalbuminemia, and anemia that can easily precipitate inadvertent toxic effects. We report a case morphine toxicity in an elderly patient of lung cancer with concomitant presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and recent onset renal impairment. Opioid analgesic overdose is a lethal but at the same time, a preventable and treatable condition. We managed the case using naloxone infusion. However, we emphasize early anticipation and recognition of predisposing factors followed by timely intervention to manage this life-threatening condition.

The distribution and impact of fall army worm (Spodoptera frugiperda) on maize production in North Sumatera

Maize is the second most important cereal crop in the world after wheat, contributing substantially to the total cereal grain production in the world economy as a trade, food, feed, and industrial grain crop. The presence of S. frugiperda or Fall Armyworm (FAW) and climate change has affected the corn productivity in North Sumatra. The objective is to determine the distribution and impact of FAW on maize production in North Sumatra. The method used was a survey, observation, and interview farmers and extensions, also secondary data of the FAW attacked from the North Sumatra Food Crops and Horticulture Protection unit (January to August 2019). Sampling was done by simple random sampling with 30 respondents. Analysis data in the form of agronomic advantages and FAW distribution were mapped by overlaying the district administration map with the corn area that was attacked using ArcView GIS. The results showed that the heaviest attack in Karo District was 1,729.9 ha started at 25 days after planting until flowering. The effect of FAW is an increase in production costs by 4.2%, reduction production by 26.6% wherein labour is the highest cost production. Rainfall and wind speed factors have a positive and negative influence on the development of FAW in North Sumatra, early anticipation at the beginning of the plant growth period can reduce the impact on corn production and cost.

Thoracotomy for emergency repair of iatrogenic tracheal rupture: single center analysis of perioperative management and outcomes

BackgroundIatrogenic tracheal ruptures are rare but life-threatening airway complications that often require surgical repair. Data on perioperative vital functions and anesthetic regimes are scarce. The goal of this study was to explore comorbidity, perioperative management, complications and outcomes of patients undergoing thoracotomy for surgical repair.MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated adult patients who required right thoracotomy for emergency surgical repair of iatrogenic posterior tracheal ruptures and were admitted to a university hospital over a 15-year period (2004–2018). The analyses included demographic, diagnostic, management and outcome data on preinjury morbidity and perioperative complications.ResultsThirty-five patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed. All but two patients (96%) presented with critical underlying diseases and/or emergency tracheal intubations. The median time (interquartile range) from diagnosis to surgery was 0.3 (0.2–1.0) days. The durations of anesthesia, surgery and one-lung ventilation (OLV) were 172 (128–261) min, 100 (68–162) min, and 52 (40–99) min, respectively. The primary airway management approach to OLV was successful in only 12 patients (34%). Major complications during surgery were observed in 10 patients (29%). Four patients (11%) required cardiopulmonary resuscitation, one of whom received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and another one of these patients died during surgery. Major complications were associated with significantly higher all-cause 30-day mortality (p = 0.002) and adjusted mortality (p = 0.001) compared to patients with minor or no complications.ConclusionsSurgical repair of iatrogenic tracheal ruptures requires advanced perioperative care in a specialized center due to high morbidity and potential complications. Airway management should include early anticipation of alternative OLV approaches to provide acceptable conditions for surgery.

Speech Recognition with Hidden Markov Model and Multisensory Methods in Learning Applications Intended to Help Dyslexic Children

Dyslexia disorders commonly occur in children. Dyslexia is a difficulty in recognizing letters and numbers. Helpful tools are needed to detect and treat dyslexic children so that early anticipation can be taken. So that later this disorder will no longer be suffered by the child when he is an adult. For this reason, information technology-based learning media was created in this study with the aim of helping therapy for children with dyslexia. This study utilizes the hidden Markov method for speech recognition and multisensory methods for learning media. In this study learning is divided into three levels, namely learning to recognize numbers, learning to recognize letters, and learning to understand words. Each level uses a pattern that is generally difficult to accept children with dyslexia disorders. During the testing process, level one and level three efficiency has reached 80%, while for level two it is still worth 60%.

Early anticipation of driver’s maneuver in semiautonomous vehicles using deep learning

Making machines to anticipate human action is a complex research problem. Some of the recent research studies on computer vision and assistive driving have reported that the anticipation of driver’s action few seconds in advance is a challenging problem. These studies are based on the driver’s head movement tracking, eye gaze tracking, and spatiotemporal interest points. The study is aimed to address an important question of how to anticipate a driver’s action while driving and improve the anticipation time. The goal of this study is to review the existing deep learning framework for assistive driving. This paper differs from the existing solutions in two ways. First, it proposes a simplified framework using the driver’s inside video data and develops a driver’s movement tracking (DMT) algorithm. Majority of the existing state of the art is based on inside and outside features of the vehicles. Second, the proposed work tends to improve the image pattern recognition by introducing a fusion of spatiotemporal data points (STIPs) for movement tracking along with eye cuboids and then action anticipation by using deep learning. The proposed DMT algorithm tracks the driver’s movement using STIPs from the input video. Also, a fast eye gaze algorithm tracks eye movements. The features extracted from STIP and eye gaze are fused and analyzed by a deep recurrent neural network to improve the prediction time, thereby giving a few extra seconds to anticipate the driver’s correct action. The performance of the DMT algorithm is compared with the previous algorithms and found that DMT offers 30% improvement with regards to anticipating driver’s action over two recently proposed deep learning algorithms.

Integrating fuzzy logic and genetic algorithm for upwelling prediction in Maninjau Lake

Upwelling is a natural phenomenon related with the increase in water mass that also occurs in Maninjau Lake, West Sumatra. The upwelling phenomenon resulted in considerable losses for freshwater fish farming because make mass mortalities of fish in farming using the method of floating net cages (karamba jaring apung/KJA). It takes a system that can predict the possibility of upwelling as an early warning to the community, especially fish farming to immediately prepare early anticipation of upwelling prevention. With historical water quality monitoring data at six sites in Maninjau Lake for 17 years, a prediction model can be made. There are three input criteria for Tsukamoto FIS that is water temperature, pH, and dissolve oxygen (DO). The model is built with fuzzy logic integration with the genetic algorithm to optimize the membership function boundaries of input and output criteria. After the optimization, hybrid Tsukamoto FIS and genetic algorithm successfully make a correct upwelling prediction on of 16 data with 94% accuracy.

Altered transposition asymmetry in serial ordering in early Parkinson's disease

IntroductionThe ability to arrange thoughts and actions in an appropriate serial order is impaired in Parkinson's disease (PD). However, it is unclear how serial order is represented and manipulated and how the representation or manipulation is altered in the early stages of PD. We aimed to analyze the pattern of performance errors in serial ordering versus serial recall in nondemented PD patients with mild clinical symptoms and healthy adults to identify the underlying principles of serial ordering. MethodsPD patients (N = 57) and healthy controls (N = 40) completed the adaptive digit ordering and digit span forward tests. We focused on items recalled in incorrect positions (transposition) and analyzed the tendency to recall transposed items too early (anticipation) versus too late (postponement). We also analyzed the tendency to recall the item displaced by the error (fill-in) versus the item following the error in the target output order (infill) after anticipation errors. ResultsPD patients not only made more transposition errors but also showed distinct error patterns. The patients made more anticipations but not postponements, and more fill-ins but not in fills than healthy controls in the ordering test (transposition asymmetry). Individual patients' percentage of anticipations was negatively correlated with their daily exposure to D2/3 receptor agonists. Patients’ error pattern in the forward test was normal. ConclusionThe increase in anticipations in PD suggests an increase in the forward-specific variability in the representation of serial order. Their increase in fill-ins suggests a deficit in the chaining mechanism involved in the manipulation of serial order.

Complications of Paediatric Cochlear Implantation in the Population of Uttarakhand.

Cochlear implants surgery is now routinely done at this center. Complications which have been experienced in cochlear implant surgery at our center are discussed, as a detailed knowledge about the complications and their early anticipation can save an expensive device and most importantly patients morbidity. To discuss the complications of the paediatric cochlear implantation in the population of Uttarakhand. The total of 60 patients were included in this study (age group 1-5years) who had undergone the cochlear implantation surgery between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2016. These patients were regularly monitored and followed up for 1year. All the surgeries were performed by same team of surgeons. Rate of minor complications is 8.33% (reversible facial nerve paresis, injury to chorda tympani nerve, local skin reaction, perilymph gussher) and major complications is 5% (implant rejection and flap necrosis). The various complications should be closely monitored by the surgeon so that these can be avoided.

Entrepreneurs' early stage anticipation of business transfer and succession processes

The people of Europe are ageing, and within the next decade a significant amount of SME- and family firms will face a need for business transfer. The situation is most challenging in firms where the entrepreneurs seem not to even think about retirement or stepping down before it is really necessary on the basis of getting sick or the declining of the business. In this paper, the focus is on the way Finnish entrepreneurs anticipate and prepare to transfer their business to the next generation of entrepreneurs. By considering the early stage attitudes of entrepreneurs towards business transfer or succession, we found four main types of entrepreneur: pro-active arranger, pre-active preventor, re-active fire-fighter and passive lonely-rider. The different stakeholders (i.e., potential buyers or successors, bankers and other investors, consultants and educators) can implement the results when they want to raise awareness among the entrepreneurs that are approaching the age of retirement.

Entrepreneurs' early stage anticipation of business transfer and succession processes

The people of Europe are ageing, and within the next decade a significant amount of SME- and family firms will face a need for business transfer. The situation is most challenging in firms where the entrepreneurs seem not to even think about retirement or stepping down before it is really necessary on the basis of getting sick or the declining of the business. In this paper, the focus is on the way Finnish entrepreneurs anticipate and prepare to transfer their business to the next generation of entrepreneurs. By considering the early stage attitudes of entrepreneurs towards business transfer or succession, we found four main types of entrepreneur: pro-active arranger, pre-active preventor, re-active fire-fighter and passive lonely-rider. The different stakeholders (i.e., potential buyers or successors, bankers and other investors, consultants and educators) can implement the results when they want to raise awareness among the entrepreneurs that are approaching the age of retirement.

Design of Sex Educational Material in Children as Early Anticipation of Pedophilia in Medan City and its Dissemination through Information and Communication Technology

Every child occupies the most important composition for the sustainability of this State of Indonesia development, so should any form of deviant treatment done to the child should be prevented as early as possible. Why is this worth noting?, because the more frightening thing is that children who used to be victims will imitate what ever happened, which is a predator of children aka revenge for what has happened to him. Almost all pedophiles have been the victims of pedophilia itself, especially when in their youth. Containers to fill it all are formal and in formal education. Therefore, in both containers the child’s affective space is filled, grown and developed. In observing the lively pedophile disparity of late, with the declaration of Medan, Denpasar and Batam as the three major cities, the highest number of pedophiles in Indonesia. These three cities are considered to be “childless cities”. Now what should we do, as educators?. The author feels the need to do an urgent effort, namely preparing the intellectual maturity of children, so as not to be easily deceived by the pedophile persuasion directed to him. This paper departs from the notion that no amount of legal sanction formulated or imposed in a provision of the Act will not be able to suppress the rate of pedophilia in Indonesia. Information and Communication Technology on the other hand can facilitate the dissemination of information about the dangers of pedophilia and also the dissemination of teaching materials that have been produced so that it can be accessed by the whole community. Therefore this paper tries to touch other aspects of pedophilia handling, that is through educational pathways, with more courage to introduce sex education materials to children as early as possible and its dissemination through information and communication technology.

The association of environmental, meteorological, and pollen count variables with asthma-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations in the Bronx

Objective: To better understand how meteorological variables, air quality variables, and pollen counts collectively contribute to asthma-related emergency department visits (AREDV) and asthma-related hospitalizations (ARH) among pediatric and adult patients in the New York City borough of the Bronx. Methods: The numbers of daily adult and pediatric AREDV and ARH from 2001 to 2008 were obtained from three Bronx hospitals. After removing outliers, interpolating missing data, and standardizing variable values by scaling the data using z-scores, data were analyzed using Spearman rank tests and linear regression models for the full year and each season. Results: There were a total of 42,065 AREDV and 1,664 ARH at both Bronx hospitals. With the exception of a spring peak in AREDVs, AREDVs and ARHs follow a cyclical pattern, climbing in the fall, plateauing in the winter, dropping in the spring, and reaching a low in the summer. Among the 11 air quality, meteorological, and pollen count variables, temperature and tree pollen made the greatest contribution to AREDV with scaled coefficients of –0.337 and 0.311 respectively; equating to an additional AREDV for every 5.0-unit decrease in temperature and an additional AREDV for every 186.0-unit increase in tree pollen. These two variables were confirmed to have independent associations with AREDV prior to the data interpolation. Grass pollen was also found to have a relatively large contribution to AREDV during the summer with a scaled coefficient of 0.314, equating to an additional AREDV for every 2.3-unit increase in grass pollen. Conclusion: There are distinct peaks of increased AREDVs that are closely associated with increased tree pollen counts in the spring and decreasing temperatures in the fall. Early anticipation of these air quality, meteorological, and pollen factor changes based on ongoing surveillance could potentially guide clinical practice and minimize AREDVs in the Bronx.

The Difference in Perceptual Anticipation Between Professional Tennis Athletes and Second-Grade Athletes Before Batting.

To investigate the differences in cognitive processing of perceptual anticipation of tennis players at different levels before batting by the event-related potential (ERP) technique, we used the skilled-expert paradigm. We compared the cognitive and neural mechanisms of professional tennis athletes and second-grade athletes relating to their perceptual anticipation of the batting line at different time points [the time point of the ball landing (T0), and the 80 ms before batting time point (T1)]. The results showed that, regardless of the T0 or T1 time point, professional tennis athletes had shorter anticipation times and higher correct batting line rates than second-grade athletes. The ERP results demonstrated that compared with second-grade athletes, professional tennis athletes induced smaller N1 amplitudes and larger P2 amplitudes in early perceptual anticipation, and induced smaller N2 and larger P3 amplitudes in late perceptual anticipation. These studies suggest that, regardless of whether they are in an early or late stage, tennis professional athletes are faster and more accurate in respect of their perceptual anticipation of tennis lines than second-grade athletes are. This is possible since the relevant neural network of the former is more easily activated and faster. The prefrontal cortex may be a critical area of the brain for perceptual anticipation in tennis.

Early Anticipation of Dementia; A Step Towards Promoting Community Health: Review of Current Evidence

Context: Prevention and early diagnosis of diseases such as dementia can interrupt the destruction, complications, and disabilities caused by the diseases, reduce costs, and improve the quality of life of patients. The current study aimed at overviewing the early premonitory dementia as a step forward to the promotion of health in the community. Evidence Acquisition: The current systematic review was conducted to systematically access relevant online - based studies on domestic and international databases (Magiran, SID, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus) and the Google Scholar search engine with the following keywords: dementia, elderly, and early diagnostic tests, from 1996 to 2017. Results: Totally, 25 studies were selected. Differences were observed between the articles in terms of methodology, sample size, method of work, applied techniques, etc. The results showed that verbal and linguistic examination, memory, impairment in vision, and olfactory function can be some of the early indicators for dementia. Motor and language function tests are the most frequently studied tests for dementia screening. However, many other screening tests had comparable diagnostic abilities; cognitive tests had better performance than the other dementia screening tests; olfactory test is an easy test to detect dementia. Conclusions: Since mild cognitive impairment has adverse effects on the quality of life and performance, risk reduction is important. Early diagnosis and modifying major factors can postpone or prevent the onset of dementia during a mild cognitive phase.

Acute fatty liver of pregnancy: A case report of successfully managed an uncommon catastrophic disease

Acute fatty liver disease of pregnancy has universally high fatality rate. But with modern treatment and early anticipation of diagnosis and complication, and with appropriate supportive management it has improved prognosis.

Frontal delta-beta cross-frequency coupling in high and low social anxiety: An index of stress regulation?

Cross-frequency coupling (CFC) between frontal delta (1–4 Hz) and beta (14–30 Hz) oscillations has been suggested as a candidate neural correlate of social anxiety disorder, a disorder characterized by fear and avoidance of social and performance situations. Prior studies have used amplitude-amplitude correlation (AAC) as a CFC measure and hypothesized it as a candidate neural mechanism of affective control. However, using this metric has yielded inconsistent results regarding the direction of CFC, and the functional significance of coupling strength is uncertain. To offer a better understanding of CFC in social anxiety, we compared frontal delta-beta AAC with phase-amplitude coupling (PAC) – a mechanism for information transfer through neural circuits. Twenty high socially anxious (HSA) and 32 low socially anxious (LSA) female undergraduates participated in a social performance task (SPT). Delta-beta PAC and AAC were estimated during the resting state, as well as the anticipation and recovery conditions. Results showed significantly more AAC in LSA than HSA participants during early anticipation, as well as significant values during all conditions in LSA participants only. PAC did not distinguish between LSA and HSA participants, and instead was found to correlate with state nervousness during early anticipation, but in LSA participants only. Together, these findings are interpreted to suggest that delta-beta AAC is a plausible neurobiological index of adaptive stress regulation and can distinguish between trait high and low social anxiety during stress, while delta-beta PAC might be sensitive enough to reflect mild state anxiety in LSA participants.

Predictors of Rapid Cognitive Decline in Patients with Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study with 12-Month Follow-Up Performed in Memory Clinics

Background/Aims: Alzheimer disease (AD) is particularly devastating, with no cure, no means of prevention, and no proven way to slow progression. AD is associated with the worsening of cognitive function attributable to a variety of factors of which little is known. Our main objective was to determine factors associated with rapid cognitive decline (RCD) in older AD patients. Methods: We conducted a 12-month, prospective, multi-centre cohort study. Community-living individuals aged ≥65 years with mild-to-moderate AD were included. RCD was defined as the loss of ≥3 points/year in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score. Potential individual-level predictors were collected at baseline. Results: A total of 521 individuals were included. The mean age was 80.8 ± 9.0 years and 66.0% were females. The average baseline MMSE score was 20.5 ± 4.5. The incidence of RCD was 40.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.7–45.1). RCD was more common in patients with moderate (53.5%) than mild (22.3%) AD. The factors associated with RCD were: a parental history of dementia (odds ratio [OR], 2.32 [95% CI, 1.24–4.21], p = 0.011), psychotic symptoms (OR, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.22–3.48], p = 0.007), malnutrition (OR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.06–2.63], p = 0.028), and the female gender (OR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.03–2.15], p = 0.036). An MMSE score < 20 at treatment onset was also associated with RCD (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The factors associated with RCD were an MMSE score < 20 at treatment onset, female gender, psychotic symptoms, malnutrition, and a family history of dementia. These results may be directly relevant to patients, their families, and their physicians, enabling early anticipation of difficult clinical trajectories and poor functional outcomes.