Early Episodes Research Articles

P1709THE ROLE OF CXCL9 AND CXCL13 IN PREDICTION OF POSTTRANSPLANT INFECTION IN KIDNEY TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS

Abstract Background and Aims Chemokines are deeply involved in the process of inflammatory and immune responses. Interferon-γ-inducible chemokines C-X-C motif chemokine 9 and 10 (CXCL9 and CXCL10) are significantly associated with Th1 cells and monocytes and rise rapidly during early episode of renal allograft rejection and various infectious diseases. CXCL13 is one of the most potent B cells and T follicular helper (Tfh) cells chemoattractants when acts through its cognate receptor CXCR5. Recent work of CXCL13 indicated a critical immune regulatory role in both multiple infectious diseases and kidney transplantation. Additionally, C-C motif chemokine 2 (CCL2) is shown to be is critical for chronic kidney diseases. The aim of this study was to identify the predictive role of serum CXCL9, CXCL10, CXCL13 or CCL2 on kidney posttransplant infection. Method 95 kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) were enrolled in this study. 31 recipients experienced at least once infection episodes within the first posttransplant 12 months and 64 KTRs did not experience any infection episode during the follow-up period. Serum CXCL9, CXCL10, CXCL13 and CCL2 at the time points of pre-transplantation and post-transplant 30 days (POD 30) were analyzed with Bio-Plex® suspension array system. Results It was found that serum level of POD 30 CXCL9 and POD 30 CXCL13 was associated with infection within one year after transplantation (P=0.021, P=0.002, respectively, shown in Figure 1). The serum level of CXCL9 and CXCL13 before surgery, the serum level of CCL2 and CXCL10 before and after surgery were not associated with infection within posttransplant one year (P>0.05, shown in Figure 1). The combination of POD 30 CXCL9 plus POD 30 CXCL13 provided the best results with AUC of 0.721 (95%CI, 0.591-0.852), sensitivity of 71.4% and specificity of 68.5% at the optimal cut-off value of 52.72 pg/ml (shown in Figure 2). Conclusion Chemokines CXCL9 and CXCL13 as important chemokines could be used to predict the occurrence of infection within posttransplant one year in kidney transplant recipients.

Efficient tidal dissipation in Deimos

After its formation Deimos, Mars' second and outer satellite, is expected to have been catastrophically disrupted, possibly multiple times, by planetesimals left over from primary terrestrial planet accretion. The expected last time such a disruption occurred is ca. 4.3 Gyr ago. After this disruption and its subsequent expected coagulation from a thin circum-martian ring, Deimos likely experienced a gradual excitation in its orbital eccentricity from flybys with other leftover planetesimals. The cumulative effect from these encounters indicates that Deimos' eccentricity should have been up to an order of magnitude greater than it is now, with a mean value of 1.5−1.1+2.3×10−3. Based on this eccentricity excitation, Deimos' calculated age, the assumption of synchronous rotation throughout its existence and that the eccentricity is only tidally damped in Deimos and not in Mars, the resulting tidal parameters of Deimos are k2D/QD=3.52−2.89+2.04 × 10−5 (2σ). The large uncertainties in the tidal parameters are caused by the wide eccentricity distribution resulting from encounters with stray planetesimals. Employing a simple tidal model, I calculate that Deimos' shear viscosity is ηD=2.13−0.79+9.77×1012 Pa s, far lower than that of cold rock. Under the assumption that Deimos' interior is akin to a rubble pile its internal rigidity is μrp ~ 120 MPa, while the tidal Love number falls in the range k2D ~ (1 − 7) × 10−5. The low rigidity and viscosity indicate that most of the tidal damping likely occurs in the surface regolith layer. As a consequence, Deimos appears to be near its maximum tidal dissipation efficiency (QD ~ 1). An early episode of chaotic tumbling could have initially lowered Deimos' eccentricity to near zero, but this was likely followed by an excitation of its eccentricity through a past resonance with Phobos ca. 2 Gyr ago. This resonance crossing excited Deimos' eccentricity to 0.002, and subsequent synchronous damping over the next 2.5 Gyr requires k2D/QD ~ 7 × 10−5, which still implies efficient damping in Deimos.

How to Solve a Crisis? The 1977 Metal Unions Seminar on the Role of the Industries Assistance Commission

In June 1977, metal unions convened a seminar on the future of Australian manufacturing, bringing together over 1,200 delegates from unions, business and politics. The event is best conceived as an early episode of institutional searching, whereby the state, capital and labour engage in a contradictory and contested process of discovering ways through the crisis of the extant antipodean Fordist model of development. Whereas some prescriptions tended to reinforce the structure and logic of antipodean Fordism, others cut across its grain and evinced radically new modalities of regulating capitalism. Other contributions reflected confusion and an inability to formulate concrete proposals for reform. This article will demonstrate the utility of seeing the 1977 seminar in this way, by focusing on the session dedicated to exploring the role of the Industries Assistance Commission. The analysis will reveal that, whereas the union and employer advocates remained within the ambit of the antipodean Fordist system, the Commission representative delivered proposals fundamentally at odds with its dynamics.

Early access to clozapine in Early Intervention in Psychosis: Hope vs reality. A mixed method service analysis.

Improving access to clozapine is a recognized priority nationally across Early Intervention in Psychosis Services (EIPS) in the UK. Treatment resistance (TR) may be identifiable from early episode psychosis and appears to be characterized by negative symptoms and younger age of onset. This mixed method cross-sectional snapshot analysis of antipsychotic (AP) prescribing in an EIPS, explored clozapine eligibility (CE) and prioritization of AP prescribing based on choice, selectivity and appropriateness. We screened 150 service users and 79% (n = 119) were retained after inclusion criteria were applied. We explored CE in all service users who were indicated clozapine based on the product licence (n = 78), and whether there was association between CE and number of hospital admissions, AP trials, age at first episode and duration of untreated psychosis. Following multidisciplinary clinical discussions, we found that 23 service users were CE; 8 were offered and declined clozapine. When compared to non-CE service users, significant factors associated with CE were history of two or more hospital admissions (Mann-Whitney U = 269, P = .008), more than two trials of two different APs (Mann-Whitney U = 517, P ≤ .01), and younger age first episode (independent-samples t-test, P = .047). A total of 47.5% of all service users had been started on olanzapine as their first AP, despite high risk of cardiometabolic syndrome. We propose that EIP services adopt a proactive approach in screening for TR, taking into account negative symptoms and young age at onset, prioritizing service users with two or more hospital admissions and AP trials.

Coaching: accelerating reinforcement learning through human-assisted approach

The learning process in reinforcement learning is time-consuming because on early episodes agent relies too much on exploration. The proposed “coaching” approach focused on helping to accelerate learning for the system with a sparse environmental reward setting. This approach works well with linear epsilon-greedy Q-learning with eligibility traces. To coach an agent, an intermediate target is given by a human coach as a sub-goal for the agent to pursue. This sub-goal provides an additional clue that guides the agent toward the actual terminal state. In the coaching phase, the agent pursues an intermediate target with an aggressive policy. The aggressive reward from this intermediate target would not be used to update the state-action value directly but the environmental reward is used. After a small number of coaching episodes, the learning would proceed normally with an $$\epsilon $$-greedy policy. In this way, the agent will end up with an optimal policy which is not under influence or supervision of a human coach. The proposed method has been tested on three experimental tasks: mountain car, ball following, and obstacle avoidance. Even with the human coach of various skill levels, the experimental results show that this method could speed up the learning process of an agent in all tasks.

Early Cretaceous subduction initiation beneath southern Tibet caused the northward flight of India

Collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the ~2500 ​km long Yarlung Zangbo Suture Zone and produced the Himalaya mountains and Tibetan plateau. Here we offer a new explanation for tectonic events leading to this collision: that the northward flight of India was caused by an Early Cretaceous episode of subduction initiation on the southern margin of Tibet. Compiled data for ophiolites along the Yarlung Zangbo Suture Zone show restricted ages between 120 ​Ma and 130 ​Ma, and their supra-subduction zone affinities are best explained by seafloor spreading in what became the forearc of a north-dipping subduction zone on the southern margin of Tibet. The subsequent evolution of this new subduction zone is revealed by integrating data for arc-related igneous rocks of the Lhasa terrane and Xigaze forearc basin deposits. Strong slab pull from this new subduction zone triggered the rifting of India from East Gondwana in Early Cretaceous time and pulled it northward to collide with Tibet in Early Paleogene time.

Antipsychotic Medication Adherence and Healthcare Services Utilization in Two Cohorts of Patients with Serious Mental Illness.

ObjectiveTo evaluate differences in patient characteristics and real-world outcomes in two distinct high-risk cohorts of patients with serious mental illness (SMI).MethodsRetrospective cross-sectional analysis using a national multi-payer claims database. Two SMI cohorts identified by a technical expert panel—patients recently discharged (RD) from an SMI-related hospitalization and early episode (EE) patients—were evaluated for antipsychotic medication adherence, healthcare utilization, and spending patterns.ResultsThe analysis included 51,705 patients with bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, and schizophrenia. More than half were over age 46 and >60% were female. Adherence to psychiatric medications was low (52.5% RD and 16.1% EE). More than half of RD and 100% of EE patients switched medications at least once annually, but 19% of RD patients switched ≥2 times compared to 14% of EE. The RD cohort (generally older and sicker) had higher psychiatric related utilization and higher annual costs (US$21,171 versus US$15,398). In both cohorts, women were more likely to have an emergency department (ED) and primary care provider (PCP) visit, but less likely to be hospitalized. Patients age <46 were less likely to have a PCP visit and more likely to have an ED visit, but younger patients age 18–24 were less likely to be hospitalized.ConclusionEfforts to manage SMI are confounded by heterogeneity and low adherence to treatment. By better understanding which patients are at higher risk for specific adverse outcomes, clinicians can target interventions more appropriately to reduce the significant burden of SMI.

Effects of Family-Focused Therapy vs Enhanced Usual Care for Symptomatic Youths at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder

Behavioral high-risk phenotypes predict the onset of bipolar disorder among youths who have parents with bipolar disorder. Few studies have examined whether early intervention delays new mood episodes in high-risk youths. To determine whether family-focused therapy (FFT) for high-risk youths is more effective than standard psychoeducation in hastening recovery and delaying emergence of mood episodes during the 1 to 4 years after an active period of mood symptoms. This multisite randomized clinical trial included referred youths (aged 9-17 years) with major depressive disorder or unspecified (subthreshold) bipolar disorder, active mood symptoms, and at least 1 first- or second-degree relative with bipolar disorder I or II. Recruitment started from October 6, 2011, and ended on September 15, 2016. Independent evaluators interviewed participants every 4 to 6 months to measure symptoms for up to 4 years. Data analysis was performed from March 13 to November 3, 2019. High-risk youths and parents were randomly allocated to FFT (12 sessions in 4 months of psychoeducation, communication training, and problem-solving skills training; n = 61) or enhanced care (6 sessions in 4 months of family and individual psychoeducation; n = 66). Youths could receive medication management in either condition. The coprimary outcomes, derived using weekly psychiatric status ratings, were time to recovery from prerandomization symptoms and time to a prospectively observed mood (depressive, manic, or hypomanic) episode after recovery. Secondary outcomes were time to conversion to bipolar disorder I or II and longitudinal symptom trajectories. All 127 participants (82 [64.6%] female; mean [SD] age, 13.2 [2.6] years) were followed up for a median of 98 weeks (range, 0-255 weeks). No differences were detected between treatments in time to recovery from pretreatment symptoms. High-risk youths in the FFT group had longer intervals from recovery to the emergence of the next mood episode (χ2 = 5.44; P = .02; hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.48-0.92;), and from randomization to the next mood episode (χ2 = 4.44; P = .03; hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.35-0.97) than youths in enhanced care. Specifically, FFT was associated with longer intervals to depressive episodes (log-rank χ2 = 6.24; P = .01; hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.31-0.88) but did not differ from enhanced care in time to manic or hypomanic episodes, conversions to bipolar disorder, or symptom trajectories. Family skills-training for youths at high risk for bipolar disorder is associated with longer times between mood episodes. Clarifying the relationship between changes in family functioning and changes in the course of high-risk syndromes merits future investigation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01483391.

Qualitative analysis of the Meals, Mindfulness, & Moving Forward (M3 ) lifestyle programme: Cultivating a 'safe space' to start on a 'new path' for youth with early episode psychosis.

The Meals, Mindfulness, & Moving Forward (M3 ) programme included nutrition education, hands-on cooking classes, mindfulness meditation practice, physical activities and facilitated group sharing. M3 was designed as a supplement to standard care for youths (age 15-25 years) with first-episode psychosis (FEP) who were clients of coordinated specialty care teams. M3 's primary aim was feasibility by demonstrating high programme attendance; secondary aims included cardiometabolic measures. Data collection included quantitative and qualitative outcomes. The aim of the qualitative study was to understand participants' and study partners' experiences during the programme and to understand programme elements that were helpful for young people to sustain healthy lifestyle choices 6 weeks post-programme. During the last programme session, we conducted two focus groups, one with participants (n = 13) and one with their study partners (n = 11); 6 weeks post-intervention, individual semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 participants. All interviews were audio recorded and transcribed; grounded theory methods guided thematic analysis. Main themes from the focus groups included appreciation for a 'non-stigmatizing' environment providing participants and study partners with a sense of 'dignity' that enabled a 'new path'. Six weeks post-intervention, participants reported continued use of mindfulness practice to stay grounded and assist with making healthful lifestyle changes. However, many were unsure of how to sustain these changes long-term. The results suggest that young people with FEP value a non-stigmatizing space that allows for social engagement and facilitates healthy behaviours. Short-term, M3 participants reported behaviour change but wanted on-going support to sustain healthy behaviours.

Smart Start and HER for a Directed and Persistent Reinforcement Learning Exploration in Discrete Environment

Reinforcement learning (RL) solves sequential decision making problems through trial and error, through experiences can be amassed to achieve goals and increase the accumulative rewards. Exploration-exploitation dilemma is a critical challenge in reinforcement learning, particularly environments with misleading or sparse rewards which have shown difficulties to construct a suitable exploration strategy. In this paper a framework for Smart Start (SS) and Hindsight experience replay (HER) is developed to improve the performance of SS and make the exploration more directed especially in the early episodes. The framework Smart Start and Hindsight experience replay (SS+HER) was studied in discrete maze environment with sparse rewards. The results reveal that the framework doubles the rewards at the early episodes and decreases the time of the agent to reach the goal.

Exploration of the Characteristics of Emotion Distribution in Korean TV Series: Common Pattern and Statistical Complexity

The series is one of the most popular formats of television programs, but the emotional aspects of its content have not attracted much attention from researchers. Furthermore, the cinemetric approach, in which move data are quantitively examined, has not been used to analyze affective content in television series. Therefore, this study focused on emotion distribution in Korean television series. In all, 337 episodes from 20 series were divided into shots, then keyframes were selected from the shots. Facial emotions on the keyframes were measured using an online artificial intelligence service. Emotion distributions were obtained from each episode and then were observed for common patterns. In addition, the statistical complexity of the distributions were calculated and compared by the temporal phase of the episode, channel type, genre, ratings, and season. The results show that the emotion distributions of all episodes in all series had the same form: an asymmetric U-shaped distribution biased toward zero. The statistical complexity of emotion distribution was greater in early episodes than in later episodes of a series, and it was higher in episodes with higher ratings. In addition, the complexity of emotion distribution was higher in hard genres and during the summer season. There was no significant difference between terrestrial television channels and cable/general programming channels.

Historical Institutionalism Meets Practice Theory: Renewing the Selection Process of the United Nations Secretary-General

AbstractThe selection process leading to the appointment of Antonio Guterres as Secretary-General of the United Nations gave way to unprecedented practices in world politics, such as public hearings with candidates. A textbook case of what historical institutionalism calls “layering,” this episode of institutional development features intriguing puzzles, including its timing, form, and limits. Drawing on historical institutionalism and practice theory, I develop a “pulling” theory of agency that complements intentionalist accounts. The webs of practices that agents find themselves in afford certain actions over others, orienting the push of interests. I infer three mechanisms—relational crossover, competence transfers, and pushback—and show how a set of nine practices, available at the UN in 2015–2016 but not in earlier episodes, account for the specifics of the recent renewal of the Secretary-General's selection procedure. A full explanation of this critical case of institutional change is impossible without understanding how agents struggled with one another under the pull of the UN web of practices, affording some innovations but not others.

Using In Situ Monazite and Xenotime U-Pb Geochronology to Resolve the Fate of the “Missing” Banded Iron Formation-Hosted High-Grade Hematite Ores of the North China Craton

AbstractHigh-grade hematite mineralization is widely developed in banded iron formations (BIFs) worldwide. However, in the North China craton where Neoarchean-Paleoproterozoic BIFs are abundant, economic high-grade hematite ores are scarce. High-grade hematite ores hosted in the Paleoproterozoic Yuanjiacun BIFs represent the largest occurrence of this type of ore in the North China craton. The orebodies are fault controlled and show sharp contacts with lower greenschist facies metamorphic BIFs. In situ U-Pb geochronology of monazite and xenotime intergrown with microplaty hematite and martite in high-grade ore established two episodes of metamorphic-hydrothermal monazite/xenotime growth after deposition of the BIFs. The earlier episode at ca. 1.94 Ga is interpreted as the timing of lower greenschist-facies metamorphism, and the later episode at 1.41 to 1.34 Ga represents the timing of high-grade hematite mineralization. Petrography and microthermometry of primary fluid inclusion assemblages indicate that the high-grade hematite ore formed from hot (313°–370°C), CO2-rich, and highly saline (~20 wt % NaCl equiv) hydrothermal fluids. These fluids channeled along faults, which concentrated iron through interaction with the BIFs—a process similar to typical hematite mineralization elsewhere. The deposition of hematite was probably related to tectonic extension in the North China craton related to the breakup of the Columbia/Nuna supercontinent. Our results challenge a previously proposed model ascribing the scarcity of high-grade hematite ores in the North China craton to the lack of prolonged weathering conditions. Rather, we argue that the high-grade ore formed in lower metamorphic-grade BIFs at shallower depths than magnetite mineralization and was largely eroded during later exhumation and uplift of the craton.

Consequences of Early Career Nurse Burnout: A Prospective Long-Term Follow-Up on Cognitive Functions, Depressive Symptoms, and Insomnia

Background: Burnout is common among nurses and midwifes. We examined whether an early career episode of burnout has long-term consequences on; a) cognitive functions, b) symptoms of depression, and/or c) insomnia for nurses a decade after graduation. Methods: Symptoms of burnout were investigated in an observational longitudinal study of three national cohorts of registered nurses (RNs). Nursing students were recruited from all 26 of Sweden’s nursing programs. Burnout was subsequently measured through annual assessment over the first three years post graduation, with one long-term follow-up 11-15 years after graduation. A total of 2472 nurses (62%) consented to participate at follow-up. Burnout was measured using the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory, cognitive function by a study specific instrument, depressive symptoms by the Major Depression Inventory, and sleep problems using items from the Karolinska Sleep Questionnaire. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with consequences of early career burnout, adjusting for concurrent levels at follow up. Findings: The prevalence of nurses reporting high levels of burnout symptoms at least one of the first three years of working life was 299 (12·3%). High levels of burnout symptoms in early working life were significantly related to more frequent symptoms of cognitive dysfunction, depression, and impaired sleep a decade later when taking current burnout levels into account. After controlling for both current symptoms of burnout and the other outcome variables, nurses with early career burnout still reported more frequent problems with cognitive functions and sleep but not depression. Interpretation: The results of this study show that the detrimental processes caused by overwhelming or chronic stress start early on in nurses’ careers and thus preventive efforts should preferably be introduced early on (e.g. as part of nursing education and onboarding programs). Funding: AFA Insurance Grant [number 150284]. Declaration of Interests: All authors report no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: Ethical permission was given by the Regional Research Ethics Committee at Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden (Dnr 01-045), and the Regional Ethics Review Board in Stockholm, Sweden (Dnr 04-587 and for the long-term follow-up Dnr 2016 / 793-32).

A Methodology for Data-Driven Decision-Making in the Monitoring of Particulate Matter Environmental Contamination in Santiago of Chile.

Atmospheric pollution derives mainly from anthropogenic activities that use combustion and may lead to adverse effects in exposed populations. It is generally accepted that air contamination causes cardiovascular and pulmonary morbidity in addition to increased mortality after exposure, but other epidemiological associations have also been described, including cancer as well as reproductive and immunological toxicity. Thus the concentration of chemicals in the air must be controlled. We propose that monitoring of air quality may be achieved by employing data analytics to generate information within the context of data-driven decision making to prevent and/or adequately alert the population about possible critical episodes of air contamination. In this paper, we propose a methodology for monitoring particulate matter pollution in Santiago of Chile which is based on bivariate control charts with heavy-tailed asymmetric distributions. This methodology is useful for monitoring environmental risk when the particulate matter concentrations follow bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders or Birnbaum-Saunders-t-Student distributions. A case study with real particulate matter pollution from Santiago is provided, which shows that the methodology is suitable to alert early episodes of extreme air pollution. The results are in agreement with the critical episodes reported with the current model used by the Chilean health authority.

From lever to club? Conditionality in the European Union during the financial crisis

ABSTRACT How did the European Union come to develop so many instruments of conditionality during the Eurozone debt crisis, despite the well-documented limitations of such measures in other contexts? This article argues that major EU actors – Council, Commission, and Central Bank – were influenced by their own recent and positive experiences with conditionality, especially in the EU’s enlargement in the early 2000s and the early phase of the global financial crisis. However, despite the promise of conditional instruments in these two earlier episodes, further EU reliance on conditional policies has not brought the positive outcomes the main European institutions had hoped for. As EU institutions turned to harder and harder forms of conditionality in the Euro crisis, they relearned many of the familiar negative lessons of conditionality and ultimately had to concede that the apparent success of its conditionality tools in the two earlier phases was exceptional. The article documents the evolution of conditionality over these periods, showing how EU conditionality instruments changed over time, beginning as a ‘lever’ to assist the accession of candidate states in the enlargement period, and evolving into a ‘club’ used to impose macroeconomic discipline in the late 2000s. It shows why this approach to the Euro crisis failed and was ultimately downgraded as Eurozone policy shifted in favour of monetary measures in which conditionality played only a marginal role.

Eocene arc petrogenesis in Central Chile ( c. 33.6° S) and implications for the Late Cretaceous–Miocene Andean setting: tracking the evolving tectonic regime

The scarce Eocene geological record in the Andean region of Central Chile ( c. 33.6° S) is represented by the Estratos del Cordón de los Ratones unit. This is a c. 450 m thick, mainly volcanic, continental series with a bimodal character that hosts numerous subvolcanic intrusions. The igneous products show compositional features indicating a co-genetic character for the whole suite, relatively juvenile mantle signatures and arc-like affinities. This, along with age determinations of c. 42 Ma, indicate that the unit corresponds to the middle Eocene arc in the region. The geochemical data obtained complement the evolving arc magmatic record throughout Andean evolution. This allows us to track: (1) the earliest Late Cretaceous orogenic event; (2) neutral tectonic conditions from the latest Cretaceous to mid-Eocene times; (3) the Oligocene–early Miocene extensional episode; and (4) the onset of the prevailing compression. The record also indicates that the extensional event started no earlier than the mid-Eocene, with the deposition of the Estratos del Cordón de los Ratones, and no later than the earliest Oligocene. In addition, orogenic processes developed from early Miocene times are highlighted relative to those developed during the early Late Cretaceous, at least in the arc region. Supplementary material: Analytical methods (Item 1), the full dataset of U–Pb age determinations by SHRIMP (Item 2) and LA-ICP-MS (Item 3), and additional geochronological diagrams (Item 4) are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4710305

From Rivers to Confetti: Reconfigurations of Time through New Media Narratives

From Rivers to Confetti: Reconfigurations of Time through New Media Narratives

Impact bombardment chronology of the terrestrial planets from 4.5 Ga to 3.5 Ga

Subsequent to the Moon's formation, late accretion to the terrestrial planets strongly modified the physical and chemical nature of their silicate crusts and mantles. Here, we combine dynamical N-body and Monte Carlo simulations to determine impact probabilities, impact velocities, and expected mass augmentation onto the terrestrial planets from four sources: planetesimals left over from primary accretion, asteroids from the hypothetical E-belt, the main asteroid belt, and comets arriving from the outer Solar System. We present new estimates of the amount of cometary material striking the terrestrial planets in an early (ca. 4480 Ma) episode of planetesimal-driven giant planet migration (Mojzsis et al., 2019). We conclude that the Moon and Mars suffer proportionally higher cometary accretion than Venus and Earth. We further conclude that the background mass addition from small leftover planetesimals to Earth and Mars is far less than independent estimates based on their respective mantle abundances of highly-siderophile elements and terrestrial tungsten isotopes. This supports the theory that both planets were struck by single large bodies that delivered most of their terminal mass augmentation since primary accretion, rather than a throng of smaller impactors. Our calculated lunar, martian and mercurian chronologies use the impacts recorded onto the planets from dynamical simulations rather than relying on the decline of the population as a whole. We present fits to the impact chronologies valid from 4500 Ma to ca. 3700 Ma by which time the low number of planetesimals remaining in the dynamical simulations causes the impact rate to drop artificially. The lunar timeline obtained from these dynamical simulations using nominal values for the masses of each contributing reservoir is at odds with both the calibrated Neukum (Neukum et al., 2001) and Werner (Werner et al., 2014; Werner, 2019) chronologies. For Mars, the match with its calibrated Werner chronology is no better; by increasing the mass of the E-belt by a factor of four the dynamical lunar and martian chronologies are in line with that of Werner (2019) and match constraints from the current population of Hungaria asteroids. Yet, neither of our dynamical timelines fit well with that of Neukum. The dynamical lunar and martian chronologies are also different from each other. Consequently, the usual extrapolation of such chronologies from one planetary body to the other is technically inappropriate.

Identifying the Early Warnings of Currency Crisis in India

We empirically investigate the recent history of currency crises (stress periods) and the factors influencing their likelihood in India. This study aims at constructing an early warning system (EWS) to forecast the possibility of an imminent crisis in the crisis window of 12 months by employing signal extraction methodology and logistic regression model for the period 1986–2015. Among the 22 identified crisis months (stress periods), only early episodes (1990–1991) were followed by a devaluation and not the later periods (post 1991). Both signal extraction methodology and logistic regression model indicate no relative importance to the three generations of currency crises models. Nevertheless, the results advocate that logistic regression model fares better than signal extraction technique. The results also suggest that building an EWS can be an effective diagnostic technique. JEL Codes: F31, F47, G01