Early Elections Research Articles

Особенности парламентской избирательной кампании Великобритании 2017 года: феномен «молодежетрясения»

The paper considers the phenomenon of social me-dia as a factor that causes an ambiguous impact on the electoral process. The authors analyze this prob-lem on the example of the Western democratic state – Great Britain. It is particularly emphasized that the electoral legislation of this country needs to be changed, since in this configuration of the model of the electoral system it is difficult to prevent the dis-tortion of the will of British voters, especially when converting votes into mandates. It is noted that the development of Internet technologies and their use as information support for the conservative party of Great Britain during the 2006 election campaign con-tributed to the mobilization of the younger genera-tion. Attention is drawn to the fact that the subse-quent electoral cycles are no exception, that is, so-cial media is increasingly involved in the UK's elec-toral process. The paper analyzes the features of using social media (advertising, etc.) in the election campaign on the example of the case of early par-liamentary elections in the UK in 2017. It is empha-sized that, despite the significant influence of tradi-tional media, the Internet is the key communication channel for young people. It is noted that the phe-nomenon of «youthquake» is not so much related to the technical component of social media, but rather to the convergence of populist ideas and the net-work component, which allowed the Labour Party to improve its position in the UK Parliament. Working with young people through social networks allows them to be involved in the electoral process. The authors emphasize that the new phenomena of the digital age require appropriate legislative regulation (correction of electoral legislation on a number of issues).

The anti-establishment parties at the helm: From great hopes to failure and a limited resurrection

ABSTRACT2019 was a year of many crucial events for the Italian government. The government of the Five-star Movement (M5S) and the League, the two anti-establishment parties, the winners of the 2018 elections, shifted progressively from an active ‘reforming mode’, to increasingly open competition between its component parties for voters’ support at the European elections, and to policy stalemate. The European elections changed drastically the electoral balance between the two anti-establishment parties – the M5S and the League – and opened the way to a period of open conflict between the main government actors. In the summer, the Government was brought to an end by an abrupt internal crisis and gave way to a new government supported by a different coalition. Matteo Salvini’s attempt to force early elections failed, and unexpectedly the M5S showed that in spite of internal problems it could build alliances first with the Right and then with the Left. Giuseppe Conte, a rather obscure outsider, promoted in 2018 for lack of alternatives to the position of Prime Minister, having governed in the first part of 2019 under the shadow of his two deputy-prime ministers, managed to emerge as the effective head of a new government and gain greater visibility. The uneasy alliance between an anti-establishment party (the M5S) resisting its dramatic decline, the main establishment party (the Democratic Party) and the new party (Italia Viva) of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (in search of revenge) provides little hope, however, for a new period of stable government.

Verdict 2019: The expanded support base of the Bharatiya Janata Party

The verdict of 2019 indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not only managed to retain its support base which it built in 2014, but also expanded it both geographically and socially. It managed to win seats in states where it had not performed well in earlier elections, and to get more votes amongst communities which had not voted for it earlier. The Congress could not improve upon its 2014 performance, but it is important to note that neither its votes nor its tally of seats decreased. The BJP improved upon its performance of 2014 largely at the cost of regional parties. The combined vote share of the regional parties witnessed a decline. Some regional parties did manage to hold onto their support base but others could not secure the support base they had held in 2014. In states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Karnataka and Maharashtra, the regional parties performed badly despite some of them having formed an anti-BJP alliance. The BJP’s gain in terms of vote share and seats, largely at the expense of regional parties in many states, begins a new debate about whether this is the beginning of the end of the dominance of regional parties in the North Indians states, or if it is a passing phase in Indian elections. If this decline in the importance of the regional parties is largely in respect of national elections, could there be a reversal in the trend during state assembly elections?

О смене власти в Киргизии

For the third time, the change of power in Kyrgyzstan took place by force, as a result of riots. Although in these events one can trace the traditional confrontation of the northern and southern clans, the main reason for the acute political crisis was the deterioration of the already difficult economic situation in the republic caused by the pandemic. Against this background, the ambiguous results of the parliamentary elections became a detonator of protest actions that led to the resignation of the leaders of the republic. As a result of the coup, power passed to one of the leaders of the protesters, Sadyr Japarov, who took over as prime minister and acting President. If he wins the early presidential elections on January 10, 2021, he will become the new legitimate head of Kyrgyzstan. However, the situation in the country remains tense, the opposing parties and movements are preparing for the repeated parliamentary elections, hoping to take revenge. A destabilizing factor is also the projected deterioration of the economic and epidemiological situation, as well as the unjustified high expectations of those strata of the Kyrgyz society, on whose support Japarov relied. In order to ensure economic and social stability, he intends to expand ties with foreign partners (an agreement on lobbying the interests of Kyrgyzstan in the United States and other countries), which leads to the strengthening of the multi-vector foreign policy of Bishkek.

The Impact of the Brexit on the Living Standards and Quality of Life in Britain

The Object of the Study. Living standards and quality of life of the population in Great Britain. The Subject of the Study. The Brexit. The Purpose of the Study is exposing the impact of the Brexit on the living standards and quality of life in the country. The Main Provisions of the Article. Following a June 2016 referendum on continued European Union membership in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to stay the UK government announced the country's withdrawal from the EC (Brexit). In March 2017 it formally began the withdrawal process. The withdrawal was delayed by deadlock in the UK parliament. Having failed to get her agreement with the EC approved, Theresa May resigned as Prime Minister in July 2019 and was succeeded by Boris Johnson, an active supporter of the Brexit. An early general election was then held on 12 December. The Conservatives won a large majority. As a result, the parliament ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK formally left the EU on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU will negotiate their future relationship. The first round of negotiations between London and Brussels began in March 2020. The author investigates the consequences of the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EC on the living standards and quality of life, economic situation, labour market, social policy of the government. in this country. It analyzes on the impact of the Brexit on the major elements of human capital: education, science, health, living conditions, ecology. It found that short-term forecasts of what would happen immediately after the Brexit referendum were too pessimistic. Nowadays it is very difficult to give an accurate estimate of the future effect of the Brexit on cost of living in Great Britain – many essential issues in the relations between the UK and the EC remain open. Besides, the coronavirus crisis and lockdown measures may cause the grave damage to growth and jobs. Much evidence shows that in the medium- and long-term leaving the European Union damage the British economy and thus reduce the UK's real per-capita income level and may adversely affect jobs and earnings, income and wealth, life expectancy, education and skills, academic research, health status, environmental quality and subjective well-being in the UK. Finally, the author analyses the impact on the economic and social life in Great Britain of different Brexit scenarios after the end of the transition period. The consequences will differ sharply depending on whether the UK does a Soft or Hard (no deal) Brexit.

The Hard Truths of Brexit

The outgoing U.K. Parliament tried to block a "hard" interpretation of the Brexit referendum outcome, and only authorized an early election when that seemed in place. But under the Westminster system a Parliament cannot bind its successor, and in December 2019 a purged hardline Conservative party won a decisive majority. There are wider lessons for contemporary democracies. Representative governments can add referendums to their existing electoral mechanisms, but that requires great care and foresight. National sovereignty can be a powerful mobilizer of opinion, but can jeopardize territorial unity. Although disengaging from external entanglements can seem liberating, it can also prove polarizing. Losers in a democratic contest must accept the verdict of the polls, but such defeats can still be bitterly resented and can cause lasting damage to political harmony.

Sieg des konservativen Populismus. Die britischen Parlamentswahlen vom 12. Dezember 2019

The early elections of December 2019 were held under special circumstances . The country was and still is divided politically and socially with regard to her future relationship with the EU . Brexit was one of the major election issues . Boris Johnson first won the support of his party and then of the country for a hard line Brexit strategy . The election campaigns of the two leading parties were outright populist . The Conservative Party secured for herself a landslide victory, with the exception of Scotland and Northern Ireland .

Mapping Early American Elections

Mapping Early American Elections

In the Shadow of Brexit: The 2019 European Parliament Elections as First‐Order Polity Elections?

AbstractEuropean Parliament (EP) elections have traditionally been described as ‘second‐order national elections' in which campaigns are fought by national parties on national issues. We argue that the 2019 elections should instead be considered ‘first‐order polity' elections. It is not EU‐level party politics or policy issues that are debated, but rather the legitimacy of the EU itself. Firstly, the EP elections have transformed into an EU ‘blame game' in which national governments are punished or rewarded over their stance on European integration. Secondly, the 2019 election was about the EU's fundamental values, not only with respect to multiculturalism, but also gender equality and LGBTQ rights. Finally, these first‐order polity elections are driven in large part by traditional news and social media platforms. While this is a long way from the patterns of the early EP elections, they still fail in fulfilling the function of holding MEPs and European party groupings adequately to account.

Strategic Use of Early Elections in Japan : Comparison of the Koizumi and Abe Cabinets

Strategic Use of Early Elections in Japan : Comparison of the Koizumi and Abe Cabinets

Closer to election, more light: electricity supply and elections in a postconflict transition economy

ABSTRACTIn our paper, we analyse the supply of electricity in conjunction with elections in Kosovo. The results confirm our hypotheses that before scheduled (regular) parliamentary elections, the supply of electricity increases significantly above usual levels, but that this is not the case for early (snap) elections. This paper contributes to the Political Business Cycle (PBC) literature in two ways. It provides additional evidence of incumbent manipulation of non-classical policy instruments before elections. The paper contributes also to the PBC debate by revealing different incumbent strategies in scheduled and early elections, respectively, thus highlighting the importance of distinguishing between these types of elections in PBC research.

The Changing Confidence Relationship Between the UK Executive and Parliament in Comparative Context

Abstract Executive–legislative relations in the UK are undergoing a process of transformation, and the confidence relationship is part of that change. The confidence relationship not only ensures that the executive is responsible to the legislature, but it also structures bargaining between government and the legislature via the parliament-initiated vote of no confidence and the executive-invoked vote of confidence. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 changes this relationship by removing from the prime minister the power to call an early election should confidence be lost, and by introducing one formal way of wording no-confidence and confidence motions. We place these changes in comparative context, showing that they strengthen parliament vis-à-vis the government, and discuss their implications against the background of contemporary constitutional practice in developed parliamentary democracies, medium-term electoral and political trends in the UK, and the 2019 Brexit deadlock.

The electoral cycle in political contributions: the incumbency advantage of early elections

The occurrence of early elections varies significantly between and within electoral democracies. Previous studies have investigated the determinants and the electoral consequences of early elections. However, whether early elections affect financial contributions to political parties has not been independently studied. This article argues that incumbent government parties gain a relative advantage compared to non-government parties with regard to private contributions in years of early elections. This argument is tested using party-level data from Denmark. Taking party-fixed effects into account, the results show a strong incumbency advantage in private contributions for early elections. The findings suggest that the ability to call early elections gives incumbent parties an additional advantage besides being able to call elections when economic conditions and opinion polls are favorable.

Dwie drogi, dwa ruchy i zdrada – Ukraińskie narracje o rewolucji na granicie i ludowym ruchu Ukrainy

The article analyzes the Ukrainian narrative concerning the role of student protests in Ukraine in October 1990. The narrative in question competes with much more widespread knowledge about the actions undertaken by the so-called Rukh (People’s Movement of Ukraine, Narodnyi Rukh Ukrajiny) and its leaders as the nation strove for independence. The memory of the so-called the Revolution on Granite is passed on by the participants of those events. Thanks to the inclusive narrative, also moderated by the state, the alternative repre-sentation of the past and historiography has no potential to provoke a conflict of memory, being merely a different interpretative approach indulging in hypothetical scenarios of development of Ukrainian democracy had the key demands of the protesters been met (early elections in 1991).

Populism in the Early Parliamentary Election for Members in the Croatian Parliament in 2016

Abstract Based on the previously published researches of the phenomenon of populism and its presence in the Republic of Croatia, and using methodological contents analyis matrix, which has been developed by B. Šalaj and M. Grbeša Zenzerović, this paper deals with the research of the presence of populism in the early Parliamentary election held in 2016. The researches of the phenomenon of populism have been intensified on both local and global level, and populism, as a concept, is becoming increasingly present in social and political discourse. However, everyone and everything is then easily classified as populistic. In the context of the Republic of Croatia, which has been through numerous state orders throughout its political history, this paper is going to examine if there was populism, as an aspect of political action, in the 2016 elections, and it is going to potentially identify the political actors, who have been using populistic features in their political careers. Furthermore, it is going to examine which kind of populism it is.

Tragedia smoleńska i jej znaczenie dla komunikacji politycznej w Polsce po 10 kwietnia 2010 roku (ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem incydentów politycznych mających miejsce przed Pałacem Prezydenckim)

Katastrofa samolotu TU-154 z 10 kwietnia 2010 roku, w której zginęli prezydent Polski, Lech Kaczyński, oraz 95 osób wchodzących w skład prezydenckiej delegacji, miała przede wszystkim konsekwencje ustrojowe - konieczne stało się zapewnienie ciągłości władz państwowych oraz zorganizowanie przyspieszonych wyborów głowy państwa. Kontrowersje w sprawie wypadku, jakie pojawiły się już kilka dni po tragedii, spowodowały jednak także wyraźną polaryzację opinii publicznej. Symbolicznym wyrazem podziału stała się tzw. sprawa krzyża ustawionego przed Pałacem Prezydenckim przez harcerzy w hołdzie ofiarom katastrofy. Język debaty publicznej towarzyszący temu wydarzeniu nabrał z czasem cech swoistych, które chcemy w niniejszym artykule ledwie naszkicować. Zwracamy uwagę na trzy istotne elementy konstytuujące dyskurs okołokrzyżowy: a) kontekst religijny; b) kontekst patriotyczno-martyrologiczny; c) kontekst polityczny. Ukazujemy ponadto, że komunikacja polityczna po 2010 roku unaoczniła jedynie podział społeczny, którego pierwszych symptomów upatrywać należy w rekonfiguracji polskiego systemu partyjnego na przełomie XX i XXI wieku.

To Vote or Not? Testing Micro-level Theories of Voter Turnout in South Africa’s 2014 General Elections

ABSTRACTEmpirical studies rarely examine the reasons why some South Africans choose to vote at elections and others not. In South Africa’s early democratic elections scholars assumed that voting was an expression of group loyalties or strong party loyalties. However, the decline in turnout in recent elections appears to contradict these socio-psychological explanations. Using 2014 post-election public opinion data, the paper addresses this research lacuna in the South African literature by testing several theories of voter participation. It finds that the influence of one’s social networks and, to a lesser extent, psychological engagement with politics are central to voter turnout. Trade unions and churches, and political parties, despite their obvious efforts to mobilise voters, make little impact on the decision to vote. Media exposure is a weak mobiliser but perceptions of media bias are important, suggesting that people filter out or select among media sources to suit their partisan proclivities, and this exercise in itself encourages turnout.

On War and Political Radicalization

This paper illustrates how a historical shock to political preferences can translate into observable electoral support as the political landscape evolves. During World War II, the Third Reich annexed the French eastern borderlands and their inhabitants were forcibly conscripted into the Wehrmacht. In the first stage, survey data is used to show how this forced conscription reduced political trust. Municipality-level data and political discourse data are then combined to estimate the impact of conscription on support for radical candidates and on abstention in elections during the 1965-2017 period. Identification exploits the fact that different birth cohorts were affected in each annexed region by using eligible births as an instrument for conscription. In earlier elections in which platforms were more similar, both radical and moderate candidates were penalized in municipalities where more men were conscripted, resulting in higher abstention. In more recent elections, which were more polarized, conscription increased support for radical candidates.

Timor-Leste in 2018

Timor-Leste entered 2018 with a political crisis that kept a minority government without the confidence of parliament. President Lú-Olo tried to resolve the situation by calling early elections, but the incumbency effect did not materialize, and the opposition won the polls. Timor-Leste celebrated an important treaty with Australia on their maritime borders in the Timor Sea.

Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia

Why do presidents in semi-presidential regimes sometimes call early elections? Is the behavior of incumbent presidents different from the behavior of presidential contenders when the former do not need to run for office but face the loss of parliamentary majority in a semi-presidential system? Prospect theory claims that agents make risky choices when facing a loss. Consequently, if incumbent presidents face a loss of majority in the parliament, they will call for early election to try to shore up or salvage the majority. To provide empirical evidence supporting this claim, prospect theory has been applied to the two presidential elections in Yugoslavia and Serbia in which two incumbent presidents, Slobodan Milošević (2000) and Boris Tadić (2012), had lost early presidential elections. The expected contribution of the paper is to deepen our understanding of how semi-presidential regimes resolve the problem of temporal rigidity and offer novel empirical data in support of the application of prospect theory in political science.