Wildfire Dynamics Research Articles

Examining wildfire dynamics using ECOSTRESS data with machine learning approaches: the case of South‐Eastern Australia's black summer

Wildfires are increasing in risk and prevalence. The most destructive wildfires in decades in Australia occurred in 2019–2020. However, there is still a challenge in developing effective models to understand the likelihood of wildfire spread (susceptibility) and pre‐fire vegetation conditions. The recent launch of NASA's ECOSTRESS presents an opportunity to monitor fire dynamics with a high resolution of 70 m by measuring ecosystem stress and drought conditions preceding wildfires. We incorporated ECOSTRESS data, vegetation indices, rainfall, and topographic data as independent variables and fire events as dependent variables into machine learning algorithms applied to the historic Australian wildfires of 2019–2020. With these data, we predicted over 90% of all wildfire occurrences 1 week ahead of these wildfire events. Our models identified vegetation conditions with a 3‐week time lag before wildfire events in the fourth week and predicted the probability of wildfire occurrences in the subsequent week (fifth week). ECOSTRESS water use efficiency (WUE) consistently emerged as the leading factor in all models predicting wildfires. Results suggest that the pre‐fire vegetation was affected by wildfires in areas with WUE above 2 g C kg−1 H₂O at 95% probability level. Additionally, the ECOSTRESS evaporative stress index and topographic slope were identified as significant contributors in predicting wildfire susceptibility. These results indicate a significant potential for ECOSTRESS data to predict and analyze wildfires and emphasize the crucial role of drought conditions in wildfire events, as evident from ECOSTRESS data. Our approaches developed in this study and outcome can help policymakers, fire managers, and city planners assess, manage, prepare, and mitigate wildfires in the future.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of wildfires in Hoshangabad Forest Division of Central India: a geospatial and statistical investigation

Spatio-temporal dynamics of wildfires in Hoshangabad Forest Division of Central India: a geospatial and statistical investigation

Integrating hydrological parameters in wildfire risk assessment: a machine learning approach for mapping wildfire probability

Abstract The increasing occurrence of catastrophic wildfire across the globe threatens public health, community safety, ecosystem functioning, and biodiversity resilience. Wildfire risk is closely connected to shifting climatic trends and their impacts on fuel availability and flammability. Although previous research has explored the connection between meteorological conditions and wildfire probabilities, there remains a substantial gap in understanding the influence of hydrologic drivers, such as groundwater recharge, on wildfire dynamics. Both short- and long-term variations in these variables are crucial in shaping fuel conditions, and significant changes can create environments more prone to severe wildfires. This study focuses on Santa Barbara County to examine the connection between wildfire probability and various environmental factors, including meteorological and hydrological data from 1994 to 2021, topography, vegetation, and proximity to road. Using a random forest (RF) machine learning model and fine-scale data (270 m resolution) we achieved high predictive accuracy in identifying wildfire probability. Our findings confirm the important roles of short-term meteorological conditions, such as mean precipitation 12 months and relative humidity 1 month before a wildfire event, in predicting wildfire occurrence. In addition, our results emphasize the critical contribution of long-term hydrological components, such as mean deviation from the historical normal in actual evapotranspiration and recharge in the years preceding the fire, in influencing wildfire probability. Partial dependence plots from our RF model revealed that both positive and negative deviations of these hydrological variables can increase the likelihood of wildfire by controlling fuel water availability and productivity. These findings are particularly relevant given the increasing extreme weather patterns in southern California, significantly affecting water availability and fuel conditions. This study provides valuable insights into the complex interactions between wildfire occurrence and hydrometeorological conditions. Additionally, the resulting wildfire probability map, can aid in identifying high-risk areas, contributing to enhanced mitigation planning and prevention strategies.

Unveiling Wildfire Dynamics: A Bayesian County-Specific Analysis in California

Recently, the United States has experienced, on average, costs of USD 20 billion due to natural and climate disasters, such as hurricanes and wildfires. In this study, we focus on wildfires, which have occurred more frequently in the past few years. This paper examines how various factors, such as the PM10 levels, elevation, precipitation, SOX, population, and temperature, can influence the intensity of wildfires differently across counties in California. More specifically, we use Bayesian analysis to classify all counties of California into two groups: those with more wildfires and those with fewer wildfires. The Bayesian model incorporates prior knowledge and uncertainty for a more robust understanding of how these environmental factors impact wildfires differently among county groups. The findings show a similar effect of the SOX, population, and temperature, while the PM10, elevation, and precipitation have different implications for wildfires across various groups.

Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires.

More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events. As fuel stock, the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics, however is not fully appreciated. Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations, we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires, with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021% (∼2.20 Mha) for every additional day of PPT advancement. Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT. Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably. Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change, the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires.

Multiscale Interactions between Local Short- and Long-Term Spatio-Temporal Mechanisms and Their Impact on California Wildfire Dynamics

California has experienced a surge in wildfires, prompting research into contributing factors, including weather and climate conditions. This study investigates the complex, multiscale interactions between large-scale climate patterns, such as the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and their influence on moisture and temperature fluctuations, and wildfire dynamics in California. The combined impacts of PDO and BSISO on intraseasonal fire weather changes; the interplay between fire weather index (FWI), relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and temperature in assessing wildfire risks; and geographical variations in the relationship between the FWI and climatic factors within California are examined. The study employs a multi-pronged approach, analyzing wildfire frequency and burned areas alongside climate patterns and atmospheric conditions. The findings reveal significant variability in wildfire activity across different climate conditions, with heightened risks during specific BSISO phases, La-Niña, and cool PDO. The influence of BSISO varies depending on its interaction with PDO. Temperature, relative humidity, and VPD show strong predictive significance for wildfire risks, with significant relationships between FWI and temperature in elevated regions (correlation, r > 0.7, p ≤ 0.05) and FWI and relative humidity along the Sierra Nevada Mountains (r ≤ −0.7, p ≤ 0.05).

PostBP: A Python library to analyze outputs from wildfire growth models

Wildfire is an important natural disturbance agent in Canadian forests, but it has also caused significant economic damage nationwide. Spatial fire growth models have emerged as important tools for representing wildfire dynamics across diverse landscapes, enabling the mapping of key wildfire hazard metrics such as location-specific burn probabilities or likelihoods of fire ignition. While these summary metrics have gained popularity, they often fall short in capturing the directional spread of wildfires and their potential spread distances. The metrics depicting the directional spread of wildfire can be derived from raw outputs generated with fire growth models, such as the perimeters and ignition locations of individual fires, but extracting this information requires complex data processing. To address this data gap, we present PostBP, an open-source Python package designed for post-processing the raw outputs of fire growth models — the ignition locations and perimeters of individual fires simulated over multiple stochastic iterations — into a matrix of fire spread likelihoods between all pairs of forest patches in a landscape. The PostBP also generates several other summary outputs, such as the source-sink ratio and the fire spread rose diagram. We provide an overview of PostBP's capabilities and demonstrate its practical application to a forested landscape.•Wildfire growth models generate large amounts of outputs, which are hard to summarize for practical decision-making.•The PostBP package calculates the summary metrics characterizing the directional spread of wildfires.•The fire risk summaries generated with PostBP can support the assessments of wildfire risk and mitigation measures.

Exploring Drivers of Wildfires in Spain

Wildfires play a dual role in ecosystems by providing ecological benefits while posing catastrophic events; they also inflict non-catastrophic damage and yield long-term effects on biodiversity, soil quality, and air quality, among other factors, including public health. This study analysed the key determinants of wildland fires in Spain using openly available spatial data from 2008 to 2021, including fire perimeters, bioclimatic variables, topography, and socioeconomic datasets, at a resolution of 1 km2. Our methodology combined principal component analysis (PCA), linear regression analysis, and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Our findings show that scrub/herbaceous vegetation (average 63 ± 1.45% SE) and forests (average 19 ± 0.76% SE) have been highly susceptible to wildfires. The population density exhibited a robust positive correlation with wildfire frequency (R2 = 0.88, p < 0.0001). Although the study provides insights into some fire-related climatic drivers over Spain, it includes only temperature and precipitation-based variables and does not explicitly consider fuel dynamics. Therefore, a more advanced methodology should be applied in the future to understand the local specifics of regional wildfire dynamics. Our study identified that scrub/herbaceous areas and forests near densely populated regions should be prioritised for wildfire management in Spain, particularly under changing climate conditions.

A Focused Review on Wildfire Evacuation and Infrastructure Resilience in Canada: Trends and Insights (2013–2023)

A Focused Review on Wildfire Evacuation and Infrastructure Resilience in Canada: Trends and Insights (2013–2023)

Interaction of the flow and flame dynamics of a line wildfire in the atmospheric wake flow of a ridge

Understanding the flow and flame dynamics is important due to its relevance in wildfires, which become severe in recent years. The flow and flame dynamics of wildfire have been extensively studied on flat and inclined surface but are rarely studied under rough surface, such as the condition of a ridge or a hill, which is relevant for many of the wildfire scenarios in mountain areas. To investigate the interaction of wildfire with the wake flow over a ridge, this is the first study that uses a large-eddy simulation to model the flow and flame dynamics of a line fire located at the lee side of a ridge. The results show that the flame dynamics can be significantly influenced by the wake flow, and their interaction features cyclic four stages.

Spatial and temporal monitoring of wildfires in Golestan province using remote sensing data

Wildfires are one of the most significant factors of ecosystem change. Knowing the wildfire regime (frequency, intensity, and distribution pattern) is essential in wildfire management. This research aims to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of wildfires in Golestan in 2001-2021 using MODIS data, burned area product (MCD64A1). For this purpose, the annual and monthly frequency, as well as the trend of wildfires based on types of forest, pasture, and crop cover, were statistically analyzed. The local Moran pattern analysis method and kernel density function were used to analyze the spatial dynamics of wildfire. The results showed that 18,462 wildfires occurred in Golestan, the highest of which was in 2010, with 2,517 wildfires (13.8%). The lowest number of wildfires, with only 57 events (0.5%), was in 2001. Based on the local Moran model results and the kernel density function, the wildfires' extent and intensity were greater in the plains and foothills to the south and southeast of Golestan. The lowest extent and intensity of the wildfire corresponded to the eastern parts of the province. The frequency of wildfires was higher in the hot period of the year (spring and summer). However, the period of occurrence of wildfire and the peak of wildfire changes in different uses. The wildfire zones in June were wider and more intense than in other months. The frequency and spatial extent of wildfires in agricultural lands from May to July, pasture lands in July, August, and September, and forest lands in November and December were more than in other months. Weather conditions play a significant role in the occurrence of wildfire in the forest lands of Golestan. The results of this research help understand wildfire risk areas and provide a scientific basis for predicting and controlling wildfires and reducing carbon emissions related to them.

Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region

BackgroundWildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses of intact big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities and declines in sagebrush obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, fire return intervals have shortened and area burned has increased in some areas, and habitat degradation is occurring where post-fire re-establishment of sagebrush is hindered by invasive annual grasses. In coming decades, the changing climate may accelerate these wildfire and invasive feedbacks, although projecting future wildfire dynamics requires a better understanding of long-term wildfire drivers across the big sagebrush region. Here, we integrated wildfire observations with climate and vegetation data to derive a statistical model for the entire big sagebrush region that represents how annual wildfire probability is influenced by climate and fine fuel characteristics.ResultsWildfire frequency varied significantly across the sagebrush region, and our statistical model represented much of that variation. Biomass of annual and perennial grasses and forbs, which we used as proxies for fine fuels, influenced wildfire probability. Wildfire probability was highest in areas with high annual forb and grass biomass, which is consistent with the well-documented phenomenon of increased wildfire following annual grass invasion. The effects of annuals on wildfire probability were strongest in places with dry summers. Wildfire probability varied with the biomass of perennial grasses and forbs and was highest at intermediate biomass levels. Climate, which varies substantially across the sagebrush region, was also predictive of wildfire probability, and predictions were highest in areas with a low proportion of precipitation received in summer, intermediate precipitation, and high temperature. ConclusionsWe developed a carefully validated model that contains relatively simple and biologically plausible relationships, with the goal of adequate performance under novel conditions so that useful projections of average annual wildfire probability can be made given general changes in conditions. Previous studies on the impacts of vegetation and climate on wildfire probability in sagebrush ecosystems have generally used more complex machine learning approaches and have usually been applicable to only portions of the sagebrush region. Therefore, our model complements existing work and forms an additional tool for understanding future wildfire and ecological dynamics across the sagebrush region.

Vegetation Classification and a Biomass Inversion Model for Wildfires in Chongli Based on Remote Sensing Data

Vegetation classification, biomass assessment, and wildfire dynamics are interconnected wildfire-ecosystem components. The Chongli District, located in Zhangjiakou City, was the venue for skiing at the 2022 Winter Olympics. Its high mountains and dense forests create a unique environment. The establishment of alpine ski resorts highlighted the importance of comprehensive forest surveys. Understanding vegetation types and their biomass is critical to assessing the distribution of local forest resources and predicting the likelihood of forest fires. This study used satellite multispectral data from the Sentinel-2B satellite to classify the surface vegetation in the Chongli District through K-means clustering. By combining this classification with a biomass inversion model, the total biomass of the survey area can be calculated. The biomass inversion equation established based on multispectral remote sensing data and terrain information in the Chongli area have a strong correlation (shrub forest R2 = 0.811, broadleaf forest R2 = 0.356, coniferous forest R2 = 0.223). These correlation coefficients are key indicators for our understanding of the relationship between remote sensing data and actual vegetation biomass, reflecting the performance of the biomass inversion model. Taking shrubland as an example, a correlation coefficient as high as 0.811 shows the model’s ability to accurately predict the biomass of this type of vegetation. In addition, through multiple linear regression, the optimal shrub, broadleaf, and coniferous forest biomass models were obtained, with the overall accuracy reaching 93.58%, 89.56%, and 97.53%, respectively, meeting the strict requirements for survey accuracy. This study successfully conducted vegetation classification and biomass inversion in the Chongli District using remote sensing data. The research results have important implications for the prevention and control of forest fires.

Analytical and numerical insights into wildfire dynamics: Exploring the advection–diffusion–reaction model

Understanding the dynamics of wildfire is crucial for developing management and intervention strategies. Mathematical and computational models can be used to improve our understanding of wildfire processes and dynamics. This paper presents a systematic study of a widely used advection–diffusion–reaction wildfire model with non-linear coupling. The importance of single mechanisms is discovered by analysing hierarchical sub-models. Numerical simulations provide further insight into the dynamics. As a result, the influence of wind and model parameters such as the bulk density or the heating value on the wildfire propagation speed and the remaining biomass after the burn are assessed. Linearisation techniques for a reduced model provide surprisingly good estimates for the propagation speed in the full model.

Modelling the daily probability of wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States

The development of a high-quality wildfire occurrence model is an essential component in mapping present wildfire risk, and in projecting future wildfire dynamics with climate and land-use change. Here, we develop a new model for predicting the daily probability of wildfire occurrence at 0.1° (∼10 km) spatial resolution by adapting a generalised linear modelling (GLM) approach to include improvements to the variable selection procedure, identification of the range over which specific predictors are influential, and the minimisation of compression, applied in an ensemble of model runs. We develop and test the model using data from the contiguous United States. The ensemble performed well in predicting the mean geospatial patterns of fire occurrence, the interannual variability in the number of fires, and the regional variation in the seasonal cycle of wildfire. Model runs gave an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.85–0.88, indicating good predictive power. The ensemble of runs provides insight into the key predictors for wildfire occurrence in the contiguous United States. The methodology, though developed for the United States, is globally implementable.

A two-decade analysis of the spatial and temporal variations in burned areas across Zimbabwe

Understanding wildfire dynamics in space and over time is critical for wildfire control and management. In this study, fire data from European Space Agency (ESA) MODIS fire product (ESA/CCI/FireCCI/5_1) with ≥ 70% confidence level was used to characterise spatial and temporal variation in fire frequency in Zimbabwe between 2001 and 2020. Results showed that burned area increased by 16% from 3,689 km2 in 2001 to 6,130 km2 in 2011 and decreased in subsequent years reaching its lowest in 2020 (1,161km2). Over, the 20-year period, an average of 40,086.56 km2 of land was burned annually across the country. In addition, results of the regression analysis based on Generalised Linear Model illustrated that soil moisture, wind speed and temperature significantly explained variation in burned area. Moreover, the four-year lagged annual rainfall was positively related with burned area suggesting that some parts in the country (southern and western) are characterised by limited herbaceous production thereby increasing the time required for the accumulation of sufficient fuel load. The study identified major fire hotspots in Zimbabwe through the integration of remotely sensed fire data within a spatially analytical framework. This can provide useful insights into fire evolution which can be used to guide wildfire control and management in fire prone ecosystems. Moreover, resource allocation for fire management and mitigation can be optimised through targeting areas most affected by wildfires especially during the dry season where wildfire activity is at its peak.

Impact of the El Niño on Fire Dynamics on the African Continent

Several studies investigated the occurrence of fires in Africa with numerical modeling or applied statistics; however, only a few studies focused on the influence of El Niño on the fire risk using a coupled model. The study aimed to assess the influence of El Niño on wildfire dynamics in Africa using the SPEEDY-HYCOM model. El Niño events in the Eastern Tropical Pacific were classified via sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly based on a predefined climatology between 1961 and 2020 for the entire time series of SST, obtaining linear anomalies. The time series of the SST anomalies was created for the region between 5° N and 5° S and 110° W and 170° W. The events were defined in three consecutive 3-month periods as weak, moderate, and strong El Niño conditions. The Meteorological Fire Danger Index (MFDI) was applied to detect fire hazards. The MFDI simulated by the SPEEDY-HYCOM model for three El Niño categories across different lagged months revealed relevant distinctions among the categories. In the case of ‘Weak’, the maximum variability of fire risk observed at time lags (0, -3, -6, and -9 months) was primarily in Congo, Gabon, and Madagascar. The ‘Moderate’ pattern had similar characteristics to ‘Weak’ except for the lag-6 months and its occurrence in the equatorial zone of Africa. ‘Strong’ showed a remarkable impact in East Africa, resulting in high fire risk, regardless of time lags. Precipitation and evaporation simulations (SPEEDY-HYCOM) indicated that El Niño categories in Africa need particular attention in the central, southern, and southeastern regions emphasizing the significance of lag-0 and lag-6 (evaporation) as well as lag-0, lag-6, and lag-9 (precipitation). The SPEEDY-HYCOM coupled model in conjunction with the MFDI was efficient in assessing climate variabilities in Africa during El Niño events. This model allows the analysis and prediction of wildfire risks based on El Niño events, providing crucial information for wildfire management and prevention. Its simulations uncover significant variations in risks among different El Niño categories and lagged months, contributing to the understanding and mitigation of this environmental challenge.

Analysis of Wildfire Visualization Systems for Research and Training: Are They Up for the Challenge of the Current State of Wildfires?

Wildfires affect many regions across the world. The accelerated progression of global warming has amplified their frequency and scale, deepening their impact on human life, the economy, and the environment. The temperature rise has been driving wildfires to behave unpredictably compared to those previously observed, challenging researchers and fire management agencies to understand the factors behind this behavioral change. Furthermore, this change has rendered fire personnel training outdated and lost its ability to adequately prepare personnel to respond to these new fires. Immersive visualization can play a key role in tackling the growing issue of wildfires. Therefore, this survey reviews various studies that use immersive and non-immersive data visualization techniques to depict wildfire behavior and train first responders and planners. This paper identifies the most useful characteristics of these systems. While these studies support knowledge creation for certain situations, there is still scope to comprehensively improve immersive systems to address the unforeseen dynamics of wildfires.

Characterizing Forest Fuel Properties and Potential Wildfire Dynamics in Xiuwu, Henan, China

As global climate change and human activities increasingly influence our world, forest fires have become more frequent, inflicting significant damage to ecosystems. This study conducted measurements of combustible materials (moisture content ratio, ignition point, and calorific value) across 14 representative sites. We employed Pearson correlation analysis to ascertain the significant differences in combustible properties and utilized entropy methods to evaluate the fire resistance of materials at these sites. Cluster analysis led to the development of four combustible models. Using BehavePlus software, we simulated their fire behaviors and investigated the effects of wind speed and slope on these behaviors through sensitivity analysis. The results revealed notable differences in the moisture content ratios among different types of combustibles, especially in sites 2, 3, 8, 9, and 13, indicating higher fire risks. It was also found that while humus has a higher ignition point and lower calorific value, making it less prone to ignite, the resultant fires could be highly damaging. The Pearson analysis underscored significant variations in the moisture content ratios among different combustibles, while the differences in ignition points and calorific values were not significant. Sites 5 and 6 demonstrated stronger fire resistance. The simulations indicated that fire-spread speed, fireline intensity, and flame length correlate with, and increase with, wind speed and slope. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the significant influence of these two environmental factors on fire behavior. This study provides critical insights into forest fire behavior, enhancing the capability to predict and manage forest fires. Our findings offer theoretical support for forest fire prediction and a scientific basis for fire management decision-making.

Leveraging national forestry data repositories to advocate wildfire modeling towards simulation-driven risk assessment

Modeling wildfire dynamics is complex and challenging due to the multiple scales involved in fire propagation, from physical–chemical processes to the interaction with topography and meteorological conditions. To provide reliable indicators of the risk of an ongoing wildfire, models aimed at informing policy-making should quantify the primary sources of uncertainty in their predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel methodology built on top of Cellular Automata to assess the impact of uncertainty by implementing wildfire ensemble modeling using data from the Spanish National Forestry Data Repositories. Uncertainty is embedded in the model considering the ±2σ deviations from the medians of linear regressions of the canopy stratum with LiDAR metrics as explainable variables. The relevance of dynamic meteorological conditions in contrast to static environment conditions is analyzed. Our results suggest that an accurate account of the fuel model, including time-dependent wind and moisture maps, is mandatory to provide reliable predictions. Using a real case study (Concentaina’s extreme wildfire), we also illustrate the importance of assessing the impact of the firefighters’ mitigation efforts.