Dynamics Of The MJO Research Articles

The occurrence of cirrus clouds associated with eastward propagating equatorial n = 0 inertio‐gravity and Kelvin waves in November 2011 during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO campaign

AbstractCirrus cloud variability associated with n = 0 eastward inertio‐gravity equatorial waves and equatorial Kelvin waves (both with the period of ~4 days) and equatorial Kelvin wave with another periodicity (~16 days) were observed in the tropical Indian Ocean (8.0°S, 80.5°E) in November of 2011 during the Cooperative Indian Ocean experiment on intraseasonal variability in the Year 2011 (CINDY2011)/Dynamics of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign using balloon‐borne cryogenic frostpoint hygrometers, Vaisala radiosondes, and a shipborne high spectral resolution lidar system. During early to mid‐November, the cirrus cloud appearance corresponded primarily with high supersaturation and high relative humidity caused by the temperature disturbances associated with the ~4 day waves between 12 km altitude and the cold‐point tropopause. The cirrus clouds disappeared under the unfavorable (downward wind and dry) conditions that were caused by the ~4 day waves, although the ~16 day wave was generating favorable conditions. Our multi‐instrument cirrus measurements revealed that we must consider the phases of various overlapping waves when estimating dehydration efficiency caused by cirrus clouds around the cold‐point tropopause.

Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions during the 2011–12 DYNAMO Field Campaign

AbstractAn international field campaign, Dynamics of the Madden Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO), took place in the Indian Ocean during October 2011–March 2012 to collect observations for the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), especially its convective initiation processes. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the campaign are documented here. The ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) states, the monthly mean monsoon circulation and its associated precipitation, humidity, vertical and meridional/zonal overturning cells, and ocean surface currents are discussed. The evolution of MJO events is described using various fields and indices that have been used to subdivide the campaign into three periods. These periods were 1) 17 September–8 December 2011 (period 1), which featured two robust MJO events that circumnavigated the global tropics with a period of less than 45 days; 2) 9 December 2011–31 January 2012, which contained less coherent activity (period 2); and 3) 1 February–12 April 2012, a period that featured the strongest and most slowly propagating MJO event of the campaign (period 3). Activities of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin and equatorial Rossby (ER) waves and their interaction with the MJO are discussed. The overview of the atmospheric and oceanic variability during the field campaign raises several scientific issues pertaining to our understanding of the MJO, or lack thereof. Among others, roles of Kelvin and ER waves in MJO convective initiation, convection-circulation decoupling on the MJO scale, applications of MJO filtering methods and indices, and ocean–atmosphere coupling need further research attention.

Lagrangian overturning and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

AbstractThe Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a planetary‐scale disturbance in zonal winds and equatorial convection that dominates intraseasonal variability in the Tropics, is a challenge to explain and notoriously difficult to simulate with conventional climate models. This study discusses numerical experiments conducted with a novel Lagrangian atmospheric model (LAM) that produce surprisingly robust and realistic MJOs, even at very low resolution. The LAM represents an atmosphere as a collection of conforming air parcels with motions that are predicted using Newtonian mechanics. The model employs a unique convective parametrization, referred to as Lagrangian overturning (LO), in which air parcels exchange vertical positions in convectively unstable regions. A key model parameter for simulating MJOs is the mixing between adjacent ascending and descending parcels, with more frequent and stronger MJOs occurring when greater mixing is prescribed. Sensitivity tests suggest that MJOs simulated with the LAM are not particularly sensitive to model resolution, but their structure and propagation speed do depend on sea‐surface temperatures, large‐scale precipitation patterns and surface fluxes. An important conclusion of this article is that the most fundamental dynamics of the MJO are captured by the LO convective parametrization coupled with large‐scale atmospheric circulations.

The cloud population and onset of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation over the Indian Ocean during DYNAMO‐AMIE

AbstractVariability of the cloud population in the central equatorial Indian Ocean was observed in the context of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the Dynamics of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Madden‐Julian Investigation Experiment (AMIE) field campaigns. Radar observations from the polarimetric S‐band radar on Addu Atoll in the Maldives characterize the types of convective and stratiform radar echoes and the heights their 20 dBZ contours reach. To gain insight into the relationship between clouds and humidification of the troposphere leading up to and during an active MJO event, the work relates variability of the observed precipitation structure to that of tropospheric humidity and upper level zonal wind. The variability in stratiform precipitation areas dominates variability in the nature of precipitating convection associated with the MJO. Areal coverage of precipitating radar echo, convective echo top height, and tropospheric humidity above 850 hPa rapidly increase over ~3–7 days near MJO onset. This rate of increase is substantially faster than the 10–20 days needed for buildup of moisture prior to MJO onset as hypothesized by the “discharge‐recharge” hypothesis. Convective echoes become more common during the days prior to MJO onset, and the increased convection occurs before low‐tropospheric moistening. The upper troposphere rapidly moistens as the first widespread stratiform region passes over an area. Thus, clouds likely play a role in tropospheric humidification. Whether increased low‐tropospheric humidity causes vertical growth of convection has not yet been determined.

The Role of SST Structure in Convectively Coupled Kelvin–Rossby Waves and Its Implications for MJO Formation

Abstract The dynamics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated using an aqua-planet general circulation model (GCM) and a simple one-and-a-half-layer model with a first-baroclinic mode and a planetary boundary layer. The aqua-planet GCM with zonally symmetric SST conditions simulates tropical intraseasonal disturbances with a dominant time scale of about 20 days, which is much faster than that of the observed MJO, although the GCM with realistic surface boundary conditions is shown to reproduce the observed MJO reasonably well. The SST with a broader meridional structure slows down the propagation speed. Several experiments done with various zonally symmetric surface boundary conditions showed that the meridional structure of the SST in fact is a control factor for the propagation characteristics of the MJO. With a simple theoretical model for the MJO, it is shown that the instability of the moist coupled Kelvin–Rossby waves depends on the SST structure, which determines the lower-level moisture field. The SST with a narrow meridional structure prefers to enhance only the fast eastward Kelvin wave, while the broader SST provides enough off-equatorial moisture for the growth of the Rossby component, which couples strongly with the Kelvin component and slows down the eastward modes. The SST influences the coupled Kelvin–Rossby waves through changes in the moist static stability of the free atmosphere and the frictional moisture convergence in the planetary boundary layer. The present results suggest that the essential dynamics of the MJO are rooted in a convectively coupled Kelvin–Rossby wave packet with frictional moisture convergence.

Multi-model MJO forecasting during DYNAMO/CINDY period

The present study assesses the forecast skill of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) observed during the period of DYNAMO (Dynamics of the MJO)/CINDY (Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in Year 2011) field campaign in the GFS (NCEP Global Forecast System), CFSv2 (NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2) and UH (University of Hawaii) models, and revealed their strength and weakness in forecasting initiation and propagation of the MJO. Overall, the models forecast better the successive MJO which follows the preceding event than that with no preceding event (primary MJO). The common modeling problems include too slow eastward propagation, the Maritime Continent barrier and weak intensity. The forecasting skills of MJO major modes reach 13, 25 and 28 days, respectively, in the GFS atmosphere-only model, the CFSv2 and UH coupled models. An equal-weighted multi-model ensemble with the CFSv2 and UH models reaches 36 days. Air–sea coupling plays an important role for initiation and propagation of the MJO and largely accounts for the skill difference between the GFS and CFSv2. A series of forecasting experiments by forcing UH model with persistent, forecasted and observed daily SST further demonstrate that: (1) air–sea coupling extends MJO skill by about 1 week; (2) atmosphere-only forecasts driven by forecasted daily SST have a similar skill as the coupled forecasts, which suggests that if the high-resolution GFS is forced with CFSv2 forecasted daily SST, its forecast skill can be much higher than its current level as forced with persistent SST; (3) atmosphere-only forecasts driven by observed daily SST reaches beyond 40 days. It is also found that the MJO–TC (Tropical Cyclone) interactions have been much better represented in the UH and CFSv2 models than that in the GFS model. Both the CFSv2 and UH coupled models reasonably well capture the development of westerly wind bursts associated with November 2011 MJO and the cyclogenesis of TC05A in the Indian Ocean with a lead time of 2 weeks. However, the high-resolution GFS atmosphere-only model fails to reproduce the November MJO and the genesis of TC05A at 2 weeks’ lead. This result highlights the necessity to get MJO right in order to ensure skillful extended-range TC forecasting.

Potential Vorticity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract This study explores the extent to which the dynamical structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), its evolution, and its connection to diabatic heating can be described in terms of potential vorticity (PV). The signature PV structure of the MJO is an equatorial quadrupole of cyclonic and anticyclonic PV that tilts westward and poleward. This PV quadrupole is closely related to positive and negative anomalies in precipitation that are in a swallowtail pattern extending eastward along the equator and splitting into off-equatorial branches westward. Two processes dominate the generation of MJO PV. One is linear, involving MJO diabatic heating alone. The other is nonlinear, involving diabatic heating and relative vorticity of perturbations spectrally outside the MJO domain but spatially constrained to the MJO convective envelope. The MJO is thus partially a self-sustaining system and partially a consequence of scale interaction of MJO-constrained stochastic processes. Convective initiation of the MJO over the Indian Ocean features a swallowtail pattern of negative anomalous precipitation and associated anticyclonic PV anomalies at the early stage, and increasing cyclonic PV generation straddling the equator in the midtroposphere due to increasing positive anomalies in precipitation. These lead to the swallowtail pattern in positive anomalous precipitation and the associated PV quadrupole that signifies the fully developed MJO. The equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves bear PV structures distinct from that of the MJO. They contribute insignificantly to the structure and generation of MJO PV. Solely based on the PV analysis, a hypothesis is proposed that the fundamental dynamics of the MJO depends on neither Kelvin nor Rossby waves.

A Nonlinear Perspective on the Dynamics of the MJO: Idealized Large-Eddy Simulations

AbstractThe 30–60-day intraseasonal atmospheric oscillation in the equatorial atmosphere, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), is most visible in its signature of outgoing longwave radiation and associated convective centers. Diabatic processes related to tropical convection and two-way atmosphere–ocean interaction are hence generally believed to be crucial in explaining the origin of the MJO phenomenon. However, reliable deterministic forecasting of the MJO in global circulation models and understanding its mechanism remains unsatisfactory. Here a different approach is taken, where the hypothesis is tested that eastward-propagating MJO-like structures originate fundamentally as a result of nonlinear (dry) Rossby wave dynamics. A laboratory-scale numerical model is constructed, where the generation of solitary structures is excited and maintained via zonally propagating meanders of the meridional boundaries of a zonally periodic β plane. The large-eddy simulations capture details of the formation of solitary structures and of their impact on the convective organization. The horizontal structure and the propagation of anomalous streamfunction patterns, a diagnostic typically used in tracing the equatorial MJO, are similar to archetype solutions of the Korteweg–deVries equation, which extends the linear shallow water theory—commonly used to explain equatorial wave motions—to a weakly nonlinear regime for small Rossby numbers. Furthermore, the characteristics of the three-dimensional laboratory-scale numerical results compare well with observed features of the equatorial MJO and thus the study provides indirect evidence of the basic principles underlying the wave-driven eastward propagation of the MJO.

Interaction of Tropical Deep Convection with the Large-Scale Circulation in the MJO

Abstract To better understand the interaction between tropical deep convection and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), tropical cloud regimes are defined by cluster analysis of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud-top pressure—optical thickness joint distributions from the D1 dataset covering 21.5 yr. An MJO index based solely on upper-level wind anomalies is used to study variations of the tropical cloud regimes. The MJO index shows that MJO events are present almost all the time; instead of the MJO event being associated with “on or off” deep convection, it is associated with weaker or stronger mesoscale organization of deep convection. Atmospheric winds and humidity from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 1 are used to characterize the large-scale dynamics of the MJO; the results show that the large-scale motions initiate an MJO event by moistening the lower troposphere by horizontal advection. Increasingly strong convection transports moisture into the upper troposphere, suggesting a reinforcement of the convection itself. The change of convection organization shown by the cloud regimes indicates a strong interaction between the large-scale circulation and deep convection. The analysis is extended to the complete atmospheric diabatic heating by precipitation, radiation, and surface fluxes. The wave organizes stronger convective heating of the tropical atmosphere, which results in stronger winds, while there is only a passive response of the surface, directly linked to cloud radiative effects. Overall, the results suggest that an MJO event is an amplification of large-scale wave motions by stronger convective heating, which results from a dynamic reorganization of scattered deep convection into more intense mesoscale systems.

Interaction of Tropical Deep Convection with the Large-Scale Circulation in the MJO

To better understand the interaction between tropical deep convection and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), tropical cloud regimes are defined by cluster analysis of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud-top pressure—optical thickness joint distributions from the D1 dataset covering 21.5 yr. An MJO index based solely on upper-level wind anomalies is used to study variations of the tropical cloud regimes. The MJO index shows that MJO events are present almost all the time; instead of the MJO event being associated with “on or off” deep convection, it is associated with weaker or stronger mesoscale organization of deep convection. Atmospheric winds and humidity from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 1 are used to characterize the large-scale dynamics of the MJO; the results show that the large-scale motions initiate an MJO event by moistening the lower troposphere by horizontal advection. Increasingly strong convection transports moisture into the upper troposphere, suggesting a reinforcement of the convection itself. The change of convection organization shown by the cloud regimes indicates a strong interaction between the large-scale circulation and deep convection. The analysis is extended to the complete atmospheric diabatic heating by precipitation, radiation, and surface fluxes. The wave organizes stronger convective heating of the tropical atmosphere, which results in stronger winds, while there is only a passive response of the surface, directly linked to cloud radiative effects. Overall, the results suggest that an MJO event is an amplification of large-scale wave motions by stronger convective heating, which results from a dynamic reorganization of scattered deep convection into more intense mesoscale systems.

Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Synoptic-Scale Variability over the Warm Pool

Abstract A principal component analysis of the combined fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface zonal and meridional wind reveals that the dominant mode of intraseasonal (30 to 70 day) covariability during northern winter in the tropical Eastern Hemisphere is that of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Regression calculations show that the submonthly (30-day high-pass filtered) surface wind variability is significantly modulated during the MJO. Regions of increased (decreased) submonthly surface wind variability propagate eastward, approximately in phase with the intraseasonal surface westerly (easterly) anomalies of the MJO. Because of the dependence of the surface latent heat flux on the magnitude of the total wind speed, this systematic modulation of the submonthly surface wind variability produces a significant component in the intraseasonal latent heat flux anomalies, which partially cancels the latent heat flux anomalies due to the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies, particularly south of 10°S. A method is derived that demodulates the submonthly surface wind variability from the slowly varying intraseasonal wind anomalies. This method is applied to the wind forcing fields of a one-dimensional ocean model. The model response to this modified forcing produces larger intraseasonal SST anomalies than when the model is forced with the observed forcing over large areas of the southwest Pacific Ocean and southeast Indian Ocean during both phases of the MJO. This result has implications for accurate coupled modeling of the MJO. A similar calculation is applied to the surface shortwave flux, but intraseasonal modulation of submonthly surface shortwave flux variability does not appear to be important to the dynamics of the MJO.