Infectious Disease Dynamics Research Articles

Data analytics for predicting disease outbreaks: A review of models and tools

The burgeoning field of data analytics has emerged as a pivotal force in the realm of public health, particularly in the context of predicting and mitigating disease outbreaks. This comprehensive review delves into the diverse landscape of models and tools employed in data analytics for disease outbreak prediction. With a focus on synthesizing existing knowledge, the paper aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the strengths, limitations, and future directions within this dynamic field. The review begins with an exploration of various models utilized for disease outbreak prediction, ranging from statistical approaches to machine learning models and epidemiological frameworks. Each model category is scrutinized for its efficacy in capturing the complexities inherent in infectious disease dynamics. Simultaneously, the paper investigates the array of tools and technologies leveraged in disease outbreak prediction, encompassing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), data visualization tools, and big data analytics platforms. A critical aspect of the review lies in the examination of diverse data sources contributing to predictive analytics. Epidemiological data, environmental factors, and the burgeoning influence of social media and web data are dissected for their roles in enhancing the accuracy and timeliness of outbreak predictions. Amidst the promises of data analytics, the paper navigates the challenges inherent in predicting disease outbreaks. Issues of data quality and availability, model complexity, interpretability, and ethical considerations are dissected, providing a holistic view of the hurdles that practitioners encounter. Drawing upon case studies and real-world applications, the review showcases instances where data analytics has proven successful in predicting disease outbreaks, shedding light on both triumphs and setbacks. The implications for public health, lessons learned from challenges, and the evolving role of data analytics in shaping global health preparedness are thoroughly discussed. As the paper unfolds, it illuminates future trends and innovations in the field, foreseeing the integration of advanced technologies, global collaboration for information sharing, and the adaptation of predictive analytics for emerging diseases. The review culminates in a comprehensive conclusion, summarizing key findings and emphasizing the potential transformative impact of data analytics on the landscape of disease outbreak prediction.

Supply chain network optimization for emergency materials considering demand satisfaction

AbstractIn order to effectively guarantee the smooth supply of emergency materials under public health emergencies, first, we predict the number of daily infected people based on the modified SEIRD infectious disease dynamics model and accordingly construct the dynamic demand prediction model of emergency materials so as to catch the change rule of the demand for emergency materials with greater precision. Subsequently, under the premise of demand satisfaction, we optimize the supply chain network of emergency materials and embed two insurance strategies in the supply system in advance: multi‐source purchase and buffer production capacity, to enhance the stability of supply chain by sacrificing part of the cost. Next, a bi‐objective linear programming model based on minimizing system cost and maximizing demand satisfaction is proposed with the intention of realizing the design of emergency materials supply chain network, which balances the risk and cost. Finally, through the analysis of the example, we find that compared with the traditional supply chain network of emergency materials, the total satisfaction rate of the supply chain network optimized by balancing cost and risk is increased by 11.70%, while the cost is increased by only 2.04%, which fully verifies the validity of the optimized design of supply chain network of emergency materials.

Effects of predation risk on parasite-host interactions and wildlife diseases.

Landscapes of fear can determine the dynamics of entire ecosystems. In response to perceived predation risk, prey can show physiological, behavioral, or morphological trait changes to avoid predation. This in turn can indirectly affect other species by modifying species interactions (e.g., altered feeding), with knock-on effects, such as trophic cascades, on the wider ecosystem. While such indirect effects stemming from the fear of predation have received extensive attention for herbivore-plant and predator-prey interactions, much less is known about how they alter parasite-host interactions and wildlife diseases. In this synthesis, we present a conceptual framework for how predation risk-as perceived by organisms that serve as hosts-can affect parasite-host interactions, with implications for infectious disease dynamics. By basing our approach on recent conceptual advances with respect to predation risk effects, we aim to expand this general framework to include parasite-host interactions and diseases. We further identify pathways through which parasite-host interactions can be affected, for example, through altered parasite avoidance behavior or tolerance of hosts to infections, and discuss the wider relevance of predation risk for parasite and host populations, including heuristic projections to population-level dynamics. Finally, we highlight the current unknowns, specifically the quantitative links from individual-level processes to population dynamics and community structure, and emphasize approaches to address these knowledge gaps.

The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022)

BackgroundWhen formulating and evaluating COVID-19 vaccination strategies, an emphasis has been placed on preventing severe disease that overburdens healthcare systems and leads to mortality. However, more conventional outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and inequality indicators are warranted as additional information for policymakers.MethodsWe adopted a mathematical transmission model to describe the infectious disease dynamics of SARS-COV-2, including disease mortality and morbidity, and to evaluate (non)pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, we considered temporal immunity levels, together with the distinct transmissibility of variants of concern (VOCs) and their corresponding vaccine effectiveness. We included both general and age-specific characteristics related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Our scenario study is informed by data from Belgium, focusing on the period from August 2021 until February 2022, when vaccination for children aged 5-11 years was initially not yet licensed and first booster doses were administered to adults. More specifically, we investigated the potential impact of an earlier vaccination programme for children and increased or reduced historical adult booster dose uptake.ResultsThrough simulations, we demonstrate that increasing vaccine uptake in children aged 5-11 years in August–September 2021 could have led to reduced disease incidence and ICU occupancy, which was an essential indicator for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions and maintaining healthcare system functionality. However, an enhanced booster dose regimen for adults from November 2021 onward could have resulted in more substantial cumulative QALY gains, particularly through the prevention of elevated levels of infection and disease incidence associated with the emergence of Omicron VOC. In both scenarios, the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions could have decreased, potentially boosting economic activity and mental well-being.ConclusionsWhen calculating the impact of measures to mitigate disease spread in terms of life years lost due to COVID-19 mortality, we highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the health-related quality of life of survivors. Our study underscores that disease-related morbidity could constitute a significant part of the overall health burden. Our quantitative findings depend on the specific setup of the interventions under review, which is open to debate or should be contextualised within future situations.

Dynamics of respiratory infectious diseases under rapid urbanization and COVID-19 pandemic in the subcenter of Beijing during 2014–2022

ObjectiveThe study analyzed the impact of urbanization on epidemiological characteristics of respiratory infectious disease in Tongzhou District, Beijing during 2014–2022 to provide reference for prevention and control priorities of respiratory infectious diseases during the innovative urbanization process in China. MethodsThe incidence data of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases (NRIDs) in Tongzhou Beijing during 2014–2022 were summarized. The trend of incidence rate was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model, and entropy method was performed to construct the comprehensive index of urbanization (CIU) and generalized linear model was used to analyze the influence of CIU on the incidence rate of respiratory infectious diseases. ResultsTotally 72616 NRIDs cases were reported in Tongzhou District during 2014–2022, and the incidence rate of NRIDs was higher during 2017–2019 (153/100 000) than during 2014–2016 (930/100 000) and during 2020–2022 (371/100 000), respectively (both P < 0.001). The CIU constantly increased with slight fluctuation in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The incidence rate of NRIDs showed an increase along with the CIU during 2014–2019 (r = 0.95, P = 0.004), while the incidence rate's tendency was interrupted by COVID-19 during 2020 with slight decrease in 2020–2021 and rebounded in 2022. For the patients aged <15 years, the incidence rate of NRIDs revealed a very sharp rise at the urbanization period without COVID-19 pandemic compared with that under pre-urbanization period (RR = 7.93, 95 % CI 7.63−8.24), and dropped off to the similar level as of pre-urbanization period when COVID-19 pandemic spread. ConclusionsUrbanization process may increase the incidence of NRIDs but constrained by COVID-19. Certain measures should be taken to prevent and control the effects by urbanization process, such as good natural environment with less population density, ecological environment with good air quality, promoted hand hygiene, mask wearing, keeping interpersonal distance, vaccination, media publicity for NRIDs’ prevention and control.

Developing a continuous SIR epidemic model and its discrete version using Euler method: Analyzing dynamics with analytical and numerical methods

In this paper, we develop a continuous SIR epidemic model and its discrete version using the Euler method. The continuous SIR epidemic model is a widely used mathematical tool for understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases. We derive the system of differential equations that describe the rates of change in the number of individuals in each compartment and discuss the key parameters that influence the dynamics of the model. Next, we use the Euler method to discretize the continuous SIR epidemic model and obtain a discrete‐time version. We analyze the dynamics of the discrete SIR epidemic model using both analytical and numerical methods. We derive the positively invariant set of the model and discuss the initial conditions of the model and how they relate to the total population. We compare the behavior of the continuous and discrete SIR epidemic models and show that the discretized model captures the essential features of the continuous model. We also investigate the impact of key parameters such as the transmission rate, recovery rate, and death rate on the dynamics of the model. Our findings suggest that the discrete SIR epidemic model is a powerful mathematical tool for understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases and developing effective strategies for their control. By studying the behavior of the model under different scenarios, researchers can gain insights into the transmission and prevalence of infectious diseases and develop interventions that reduce their impact on public health.

Inferring COVID-19 testing and vaccination behavior from New Jersey testing data

Characterizing the relationship between disease testing behaviors and infectious disease dynamics is of great importance for public health. Tests for both current and past infection can influence disease-related behaviors at the individual level, while population-level knowledge of an epidemic's course may feed back to affect one's likelihood of taking a test. The COVID-19 pandemic has generated testing data on an unprecedented scale for tests detecting both current infection (PCR, antigen) and past infection (serology); this opens the way to characterizing the complex relationship between testing behavior and infection dynamics. Leveraging a rich database of individualized COVID-19 testing histories in New Jersey, we analyze the behavioral relationships between PCR and serology tests, infection, and vaccination. We quantify interactions between individuals' test-taking tendencies and their past testing and infection histories, finding that PCR tests were disproportionately taken by people currently infected, and serology tests were disproportionately taken by people with past infection or vaccination. The effects of previous positive test results on testing behavior are less consistent, as individuals with past PCR positives were more likely to take subsequent PCR and serology tests at some periods of the epidemic time course and less likely at others. Lastly, we fit a model to the titer values collected from serology tests to infer vaccination trends, finding a marked decrease in vaccination rates among individuals who had previously received a positive PCR test. These results exemplify the utility of individualized testing histories in uncovering hidden behavioral variables affecting testing and vaccination.

Combining wastewater surveillance and case data in estimating the time-varying effective reproduction number

Wastewater surveillance has been increasingly acknowledged as a useful tool for monitoring transmission dynamics of infections of public health concern, including the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). While a range of models have been proposed to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) utilizing clinical data, few have harnessed the viral concentration in wastewater samples to do so, leaving uncertainties about the potential precision gains with its use. In this study, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model which simultaneously reconstructed the latent infection trajectory and estimated Rt. Focusing on the 2022 and early 2023 COVID-19 transmission trends in Singapore, where mass community wastewater surveillance has become routine, we performed estimations using a spectrum of data sources, including reported case counts, hospital admissions, deaths, and wastewater viral loads. We further explored the performance of our wastewater model across various scenarios with different sampling strategies. The results showed consistent estimates derived from models employing diverse data streams, while models incorporating more wastewater samples exhibited greater uncertainty and variation in the inferred Rts. Additionally, our analysis revealed prominent day-of-the-week effect in reported case counts and substantial temporal variations in ascertainment rates. In response to these findings, we advocate for a hybrid approach leveraging both clinical and wastewater surveillance data to account for changes in case-ascertainment rates. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the possibility of reducing sampling frequency or sample size without compromising estimation accuracy for Rt, highlighting the potential for optimizing resource allocation in surveillance efforts while maintaining robust insights into the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.

The Watermelon Meow Meow Outbreak: Enhancing Public Health Education Through Real-World Experience, Statistical Programming, and Infectious Disease Modeling

There is a need for public health undergraduates to acquire skills in data collection, statistical programming, and infectious diseases modeling. Public health officials and accreditation bodies underline the importance of a cumulative, “real-world” experience as part of a student's education. The Watermelon Meow Meow (WMM) outbreak is a cumulative experience that teaches upper-level undergraduate/graduate students about infectious disease dynamics by asking students to: participate in a fictitious outbreak; collect and analyze outbreak data. Innovative to our approach is the use of DataCamp as a technology to support learning statistical programming and framing WMM under principles of Universal Design Learning (UDL). We evaluated 27/32 student responses using a mixed-methods approach. We found WMM: augmented traditional lecture-style instruction and increased student awareness of heterogeneous risks associated with infectious diseases. We identified three student typologies: students who learn best from (i) integrating traditional lecture plus WMM, (ii) participating in WMM data collection but not coding, and (iii) from lecture and classroom-based learning from peers. WMM is an example of a more general approach – which we call Slate, Operate, Translate – that instructors can follow to combine technology and a hands-on experiment to satisfy both UDL principles and increasing demands of public health education in a mathematics/statistics class.

Approximate and Parametric Solutions to SIR Epidemic Model

This article provides a detailed exploration of the SIR epidemic model, starting with its meticulous formulation. The study employs a novel approach called the upper and lower bounds technique to approximate the solution to the SIR model, providing insights into the dynamic interplay between susceptible S, infected I, and recovered R populations. A new parametric solution to this model has been presented. Applying the Adomian decomposition method (ADM) allows for the attaining of highly accurate approximate solutions in the context of the SIR epidemic model. To validate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach, a numerical exploration is conducted, considering a diverse range of experimental parameters. This numerical analysis provides valuable insights into the sensitivity and responsiveness of the SIR epidemic model under varying conditions, contributing to the broader understanding of infectious disease dynamics. The interplay between theoretical formulation and numerical exploration establishes a comprehensive framework for studying the SIR model, with implications for refining our ability to predict and manage the spread of infectious diseases.

Spatial analysis of food and water-borne diseases in Ahmedabad, India: Implications for urban public health planning

Spatial analysis of infectious diseases can play an important role in mapping the spread of diseases and can support policy making at local level. Moreover, identification of disease clusters based on local geography and landscape forms the basis for disease control and prevention. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the spatial-temporal variations, hotspot areas, and potential risk factors of infectious diseases (including Viral Hepatitis, Typhoid and Diarrhea) in Ahmedabad city of India. We used Moran's I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) mapping to detect spatial clustering of diseases. Spatial and temporal regression analysis was used to identify the association between disease incidence and spatial risk factors. The Moran's I statistics identified presence of positive spatial autocorrelation within the considered diseases, with Moran's I from 0.09 for typhoid to 0.21 for diarrhea (p < 0.001). This indicates a clustering of affected wards for each disease, suggesting that cases were not randomly distributed across the city. LISA mapping demonstrated the clustering of hotspots in central regions of the city, especially towards the east of the river Sabarmati, highlighting key geographical areas with elevated disease risk. The spatial clusters of infectious diseases were consistently associated with slum population density and illiteracy. Furthermore, temporal analysis suggested illiteracy rates could increase risk of viral hepatitis by 13 % (95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 1.01–1.26) and of diarrhea by 18 % (95 % CI: 1.07–1.31). Significant inverse association was also seen between viral hepatitis incidence and the distance of wards from rivers. Conclusively, the study highlight the impact of socio-economic gradients, such as slum population density (indicative of poverty) and illiteracy, on the localized transmission of water and foodborne infections. The evident social stratification between impoverished and affluent households emerges as a notable contributing factor and a potential source of differences in the dynamics of infectious diseases in Ahmedabad.

Ecoepidemiology of Chagas Disease in a Biological Corridor in Southeastern Mexico: A Promising Approach to Understand the Risk of Chagas Disease.

Ecoepidemiology is an emerging field that attempts to explain how biotic, environmental, and even social factors influence the dynamics of infectious diseases. Particularly in vector-borne diseases, the study under this approach offers us an overview of the pathogens, vectors, and hosts that coexist in a given region and their ecological determinants. As a result of this, risk predictions can be established in a changing environment and how it may impact human populations. This paper is aimed at evaluating some ecoepidemiological characteristics of Chagas disease in a natural reserve in southeastern Mexico that borders human settlements. We carry out a cross-sectional study in 2022 where we search insects manually and with light traps. We set traps for small mammals and bats and conducted interviews with the inhabitants living around the study site. We identified the presence of Triatoma dimidiata and T. huehuetenanguensis species with a percentage of TcI T. cruzi infection of 68.4% (95% CI: 66.9-69.9). Temperature and humidity were not determining factors for the probability of insect capture. Of the 108 wild mammals (Chiroptera, Rodentia, and Didelphimorphia), none was infected with T. cruzi. Knowledge about Chagas disease in nearby inhabitants is poor, and some characteristics were found on the periphery of dwellings that could offer a refuge for insect vectors. With this information, surveillance strategies can be generated in the study area that reduce the risk of transmission of T. cruzi parasite to humans, and it is expected to motivate the use of this field in future research.

An Agent-Based Model for Disease Epidemics in Greece

In this research, we present the first steps toward developing a data-driven agent-based model (ABM) specifically designed for simulating infectious disease dynamics in Greece. Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, this research holds significant importance as it can offer valuable insights into disease transmission patterns and assist in devising effective intervention strategies. To the best of our knowledge, no similar study has been conducted in Greece. We constructed a prototype ABM that utilizes publicly accessible data to accurately represent the complex interactions and dynamics of disease spread in the Greek population. By incorporating demographic information and behavioral patterns, our model captures the specific characteristics of Greece, enabling accurate and context-specific simulations. By using our proposed ABM, we aim to assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding disease control and prevention. Through the use of simulations, policymakers have the opportunity to explore different scenarios and predict the possible results of various intervention measures. These may include strategies like testing approaches, contact tracing, vaccination campaigns, and social distancing measures. Through these simulations, policymakers can assess the effectiveness and feasibility of these interventions, leading to the development of well-informed strategies aimed at reducing the impact of infectious diseases on the Greek population. This study is an initial exploration toward understanding disease transmission patterns and a first step towards formulating effective intervention strategies for Greece.

FlepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza. In this paper, we highlight how the flepiMoP has evolved throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to address changing epidemiological dynamics, new interventions, and shifts in policy-relevant model outputs. As the framework has reached a mature state, we provide a detailed overview of flepiMoP’s key features and remaining limitations, thereby distributing flepiMoP and its documentation as a flexible and powerful tool for researchers and public health professionals to rapidly build and deploy large-scale complex infectious disease models for any pathogen and demographic setup.

Reconciling the efficacy and effectiveness of masking on epidemic outcomes.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, mask wearing in public settings has been a key control measure. However, the reported effectiveness of masking has been much lower than laboratory measures of efficacy, leading to doubts on the utility of masking. Here, we develop an agent-based model that comprehensively accounts for individual masking behaviours and infectious disease dynamics, and test the impact of masking on epidemic outcomes. Using realistic inputs of mask efficacy and contact data at the individual level, the model reproduces the lower effectiveness as reported in randomized controlled trials. Model results demonstrate that transmission within households, where masks are rarely used, can substantially lower effectiveness, and reveal the interaction of nonlinear epidemic dynamics, control measures and potential measurement biases. Overall, model results show that, at the individual level, consistent masking can reduce the risk of first infection and, over time, reduce the frequency of repeated infection. At the population level, masking can provide direct protection to mask wearers, as well as indirect protection to non-wearers, collectively reducing epidemic intensity. These findings suggest it is prudent for individuals to use masks during an epidemic, and for policymakers to recognize the less-than-ideal effectiveness of masking when devising public health interventions.

Incomplete immunity in a natural animal-microbiota interaction selects for higher pathogen virulence

Incomplete immunity in recovered hosts is predicted to favor more virulent pathogens upon re-infection in the population.1 The microbiota colonizing animals can generate a similarly long-lasting, partial immune response, allowing for infection but dampened disease severity.2 We tracked the evolutionary trajectories of a widespread pathogen (Pseudomonas aeruginosa), experimentally passaged through populations of nematodes immune-primed by a natural microbiota member (P.berkeleyensis). This bacterium can induce genes regulated by a mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway effective at conferring protection against pathogen-induced death despite infection.3 Across host populations, this incomplete immunity selected for pathogens more than twice as likely to kill as those evolved in non-primed (i.e., naive) or immune-compromised (mutants with a knockout of the MAPK ortholog) control populations. Despite the higher virulence, pathogen molecular evolution in immune-primed hosts was slow and constrained. In comparison, evolving pathogens in immune-compromised hosts were characterized by substantial genomic differentiation and attenuated virulence. These findings directly attribute the incomplete host immunity induced from microbiota as a significant force shaping the virulence and evolutionary dynamics of novel infectious diseases.

Multi-feature SEIR model for epidemic analysis and vaccine prioritization.

The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) model has become a valuable tool for studying infectious disease dynamics and predicting the spread of diseases, particularly concerning the COVID pandemic. However, existing models often oversimplify population characteristics and fail to account for differences in disease sensitivity and social contact rates that can vary significantly among individuals. To address these limitations, we have developed a new multi-feature SEIR model that considers the heterogeneity of health conditions (disease sensitivity) and social activity levels (contact rates) among populations affected by infectious diseases. Our model has been validated using the data of the confirmed COVID cases in Allegheny County (Pennsylvania, USA) and Hamilton County (Ohio, USA). The results demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional SEIR models regarding predictive accuracy. In addition, we have used our multi-feature SEIR model to propose and evaluate different vaccine prioritization strategies tailored to the characteristics of heterogeneous populations. We have formulated optimization problems to determine effective vaccine distribution strategies. We have designed extensive numerical simulations to compare vaccine distribution strategies in different scenarios. Overall, our multi-feature SEIR model enhances the existing models and provides a more accurate picture of disease dynamics. It can help to inform public health interventions during pandemics/epidemics.

COVID-19, social determinants of transmission in the home. A population-based study.

Studying transmission within the home is essential to understand the transmission dynamics of numerous infectious diseases. For Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19), transmission within the home constitutes the majority exposure context. The risk of infection in this setting can be quantified by the household/intra-family secondary attack rate (SAR). In the literature, there are discrepancies in these values and little information about its social determinants. The aim of this study was to investigate transmission in the home by analyzing the influence of occupational social class, country of origin and gender/sex. This was a retrospective cohort study of a population registry of cohabiting contacts with COVID-19 cases diagnosed from 15 June to 23 December 2020, in the Murcia Region. The household SAR was analyzed considering the characteristics of the primary case (sex, age, symptoms, occupational social class, country of origin and number of people in the household) and contact (age and sex) using a multilevel binary logistic regression model. Among the 37727 contacts included, the intra-family SAR was 39.1%. The contacts of confirmed primary cases in the migrant population (Africa and Latin America) had higher attack rates, even after adjusting for the other variables. Older age and female sex were independent risk factors for contracting Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within the home. There was greater intra-domiciliary transmission among immigrants, likely related to the conditions of the home and situation of social vulnerability. Women were more likely to be infected by transmission from a cohabiting infected individual.

Approaching epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 with physics-informed neural networks

A physics-informed neural network (PINN) embedded with the susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model is devised to understand the temporal evolution dynamics of infectious diseases. Firstly, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated on synthetic data as generated from the numerical solution of the susceptible–asymptomatic–infected–recovered–dead (SAIRD) model. Then, the method is applied to COVID-19 data reported for Germany and shows that it can accurately identify and predict virus spread trends. The results indicate that an incomplete physics-informed model can approach more complicated dynamics efficiently. Thus, the present work demonstrates the high potential of using machine learning methods, e.g., PINNs, to study and predict epidemic dynamics in combination with compartmental models.

Quantitative Study on American COVID-19 Epidemic Predictions and Scenario Simulations

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on people’s lives, making accurate prediction of epidemic trends a central focus in COVID-19 research. This study innovatively utilizes a spatiotemporal heterogeneity analysis (GTNNWR) model to predict COVID-19 deaths, simulate pandemic prevention scenarios, and quantitatively assess their preventive effects. The results show that the GTNNWR model exhibits superior predictive capacity to the conventional infectious disease dynamics model (SEIR model), which is approximately 9% higher, and reflects the spatial and temporal heterogeneity well. In scenario simulations, this study established five scenarios for epidemic prevention measures, and the results indicate that masks are the most influential single preventive measure, reducing deaths by 5.38%, followed by vaccination at 3.59%, and social distancing mandates at 2.69%. However, implementing single stringent preventive measures does not guarantee effectiveness across all states and months, such as California in January 2025, Florida in August 2024, and March–April 2024 in the continental U.S. On the other hand, the combined implementation of preventive measures proves 5 to-10-fold more effective than any single stringent measure, reducing deaths by 27.2%. The deaths under combined implementation measures never exceed that of standard preventive measures in any month. The research found that the combined implementation of measures in mask wearing, vaccination, and social distancing during winter can reduce the deaths by approximately 45%, which is approximately 1.5–3-fold higher than in the other seasons. This study provides valuable insights for COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in America.