Dynamics Of Industrial Production Research Articles

The research of industrial production dynamics based on the tools of chaos theory

Purpose. To prove the possibility of improving the procedure for analyzing and forecasting the dynamics of economic systems through the comprehensive use of scientific achievements of chaos theory, namely: checking the trend stability of time series, studying their phase space, attractors, Lyapunov’s chaos indicators, the maximum length of a reliable forecast of the socio-economic system development, etc. Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is the provisions of modern economic theory, in particular, statistics, economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting, economic cybernetics and systems theory, fundamental works of foreign and domestic scientists on the issues of fractal analysis and chaos theory. Findings. The phase and fractal analysis of the dynamics series of chain and basic growth rates of industrial production in Ukraine was carried out, and their fractal dimension was determined. The correlation function was calculated and Lyapunov’s indicators were found to assess the degree of chaotic system, Kolmogorov entropy, and the parameter of evolution in time. The maximum length of a reliable forecast and the future values of the time series were also determined. Originality. The article substantiates the necessity and possibility of applying the methodological apparatus of chaos theory in the process of analyzing and forecasting economic dynamics, including the development of domestic industrial production. Practical value. The value of the work is determined by the applied aspects of reliable forecasts of chain and basic growth rates of industrial production in Ukraine obtained on the basis of the chaos theory tools, the possibility of comparative analysis of the domestic industry development in “potential peacetime” and actual wartime.

Economic Development of Countries and Formation of International business Relations under the Influence of Globalization

"The impact of globalization extends to various aspects of a country’s development, including its economic, social, political, and technological dimensions. In turn, these dimensions play a crucial role in shaping the potential for economic growth. This article aims to evaluate the interdependencies among globalization, economic growth, and international business relations. The research methodology employed in this study involves a statistical analysis of regional economic growth, focusing on the dynamics of GDP, trade indicators spanning the years 2000 to 2022, as well as the economic dimensions of the KOFGI Globalization Index, specifically trade and financial aspects. The findings of this study underscore the intricate nature of the interconnections and dependencies existing between globalization, economic growth, and international business relations. These interconnections are intricately linked to the exchange of technologies, knowledge, investments, and the rapid advancements observed in information and communication technology (ICT). The complex nature of these interconnections has a direct impact on the pace of economic growth and shapes the strategic policies pursued by countries in their pursuit of strengthened cooperation and the identification of new collaborative partners, thereby synergizing national resources. While the period from 2000 to 2015 witnessed notable integration processes, the subsequent years from 2016 to 2020 were marked by global processes of de-globalization. This reorganization stemmed from a decline in the dynamics of industrial production and was further exacerbated by trade conflicts between major players such as the United States and China. However, a shift has been observed in the years 2021-2022, where the share of exports and imports of goods and services is projected to experience dynamic growth. In addition to the observed decline in globalization, there has been a notable deceleration in economic growth from 2016 to 2020. The presence of imbalances in international economic relations, particularly in terms of exports and imports, has contributed to disparities in globalization dimensions across various regions. North America is characterized by a dominant presence of de jure economic globalization, encompassing both trade-related aspects and de facto and de jure financial globalization. On the other hand, Europe and Central Asia exhibit a prevailing influence of de jure economic globalization, primarily in terms of trade, along with de facto financial globalization. Generally, from 2010 to 2020, there has been an upward trend in the level of de jure globalization. However, the level of de facto trade globalization has experienced a decline during this period. Meanwhile, the level of de facto financial globalization has continued to grow."

Economic and statistical analysis of industrial production in the North Caucasian Federal District of the Russian Federation

The article substantiates the need to assess the industrial potential of a region to form an effective regional industrial policy with due regard to economic constraints and ongoing global exogenous changes. To attain this end, the study uses the tools and methods of mathematical statistics and system analysis. The authors of the article analyze the dynamics of industrial production in the North Caucasian Federal District of the Russian Federation, as well as the efficiency of using resources by certain industries and activities. As a result, they determine promising directions for the development of industrial potential in the region.

Russian Economy in 2022–2024: Results, Trends, Forecasts

The article discusses the results of the socio-economic development of Russia in 2022 and highlights trends and forecasts of the dy namics of macroeconomic indicators for 2023–2024. At the same time, the main challenges and threats are analyzed, including production, trade, economic, financial, monetary, infrastructural, logistical and other restrictions that have become the main instruments of the West’s sanctions wars against Russia in the new geopolitical reality associated with Russia’s conducting a special military operation (SMO).The main objects of analysis are the current state, trends, risks and threats to the Russian economy, the dynamics of industrial production, prices, inflation and foreign trade. It is noted that, despite the toughening of challenges, sanctions and threats in 2022, the macroeconomic results of 2022 turned out to be higher than official forecasts and experts' expectations. This made it possible to substantiate the main conclusion of the study that the Russian economy managed to prevent a collapse and find additional opportunities to better unlock the potential of economic growth and social progress in the current three-year period of 2023–2025 and in the long term. According to the authors, the need to further transform and improvethe efficiency of the Russian economy is predetermined not only by current but also, possibly, future challenges.

“Unpredictable” Results of 2022 and Potential Threats to Russia’s Strategic Development in the Current Year

The article addresses the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for 2022. Contribution of the supply and demand indicators to the KIES is assessed. Dynamics of industrial production is analyzed.

Structural transformation of the industry of Ukraine under the influence of Russian military aggression

Russia's full-scale military aggression has caused enormous damage to the industrial capacity of Ukraine, as the hostilities have mainly affected those regions where the manufacturing sector is most developed. The purpose of the article is to identify structural transformations in the industrial sector of Ukraine's economy caused by Russian armed aggression. Since 2014, the output structure of the Ukrainian processing industry has undergone drastic negative changes: the share of low-tech industries has increased, while the share of medium- and high-tech industries has decreased. The efficiency of the Ukrainian processing industry is significantly lower than in the EU countries: the share of gross value added in output in Ukraine in 2020 was 20%, while in Poland it was 27% and in Germany 35%. One of the key problems of the functioning of the industrial sector and the national economy, in general, is the high import dependence of medium- and high-tech industries (especially the machine-building industry), the share of imports in costs or intermediate consumption of which in 2020 averaged over 48%. The war affected the dynamics of industrial production in Ukraine - during 2022, the volume of sold industrial products decreased by 21.6%, in particular, the products of processing industries - by 31.5%. The largest drop (by 58%) was recorded in metallurgical production. At the same time, the volume of industrial products sold abroad decreased by 44.6%. The export orientation of the industrial sector of the economy, i.e. the share of products sold outside of Ukraine, decreased by 8.4 percentage points (or by 29.6%) over the period. The post-war recovery of industrial capacity should be based on innovation and long-term development prospects. Accordingly, the central place in the structure of the industrial sector of the national economy should be occupied by mechanical engineering and chemical and pharmaceutical industries. This involves the creation of enterprises of the highest level in terms of technologies, organization of production, quality of management, etc. It is also necessary to move to new forms of organization and location of enterprises, in particular, the formation of industrial clusters that will ensure competitive costs of products.

Экономика Дальнего Востока в 2022 году: аналитические итоги

The This article analyzed economic development of the Far-Eastern federal district in 2022 in the context of the regions and key activities on the basis of statistical data , information from the executive authorities of the subjects of the Far-Eastern federal district and expert assessments. Reasons for the dynamics of industrial production, investment in the fixed assets, construction, agriculture, and the consumer sector are given.

Tax Revenues of Regional Budgets Under Sanctions Pressure

The first half of 2022 was marked by a radical change in the geopolitical situation and an increase in sanctions pressure on the domestic economy. The breakdown of the established model of economic relations, the rupture of economic chains had a pronounced effect on the dynamics of industrial production. At the same time, the tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation have increased significantly and have not yet responded to the reduction in industrial production. Of the regions with a significant share of tax revenues from industry in the structure of consolidated budget revenues, only six had a reduction in income tax receipts, and this took place both against the background of a reduction in industrial production indices and against the background of their growth. According to the results of the first half of the year, there is no connection between the dynamics of industrial production and the receipts of corporate income tax and personal income tax to the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation. In a number of regions, wholesale and retail trade plays a significant role in maintaining the receipts of these taxes to the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the pronounced lag in the growth of personal income tax receipts from the rate of inflation, which occurs with an increase in average accrued wages and a drop in real incomes of the population, may indicate the accumulation of hidden employment problems in a number of regions.

THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SUPPLY FOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

The main indicators of macroeconomic development in European countries are analyzed. Under the influence of the pandemic, the GDP of highly developed countries have been decreased most rapidly, the inflation index was higher in countries with an average level of development. Comparison of the dynamics of industrial production of food products with other industries (on the example of Ukraine) is showed that the food sector is more resistant to the negative effects of the pandemic. The annual growth rate of the export value of the main food groups in European countries is estimated. The most vulnerable to the negative phenomena of the pandemic was the export of meat products. The negative factors of the impact of the global pandemic on the food sector have been studied: rising prices; complex logistics; reduction in the number of personnel, decrease in labor productivity. A well-thought-out food policy can reduce the negative effects of the pandemic.

Environmental Consequences of the Transformation of the Sectoral Structure of the Economy of Russian Regions and Cities in the Post-Soviet Period

—The transformation of the environmental situation in the course of post-Soviet changes in Russia’s economic is considered from the standpoint of structural features and dynamics of industrial production, GRP, and energy output. A multiscale (country–regions–cities) comprehensive assessment of the transformation of the environmental situation due to changes in the territorial and sectoral structure of the economy of Russia, its regions, and cities was carried out. Factors and spatiotemporal patterns in the dynamics and structural characteristics of the environmental situation during periods of crises and economic growth are revealed. The comprehensive index of anthropogenic impact is used to assess the dynamics and variability of the environmental situation in Russian regions and cities: a general decrease in most environmental indicators identified, as well as a gradual leveling of regional shares and increased localization of the impact in individual cities versus a general slowdown in economic growth. Gradual weakening of the role of industrial specialization in the environmental situation and simplification of the structure of types of impact within regions are shown. The highest level of discrepancy between economic development trends and the integral load indicator is typical of regions with the highest level of impact; the highest degree of dependence is typical of agrarian or agroindustrial regions, as well as for regions where one of the key sources of pollution is fuel energy production with coal predominant in the fuel balance structure. In general, the trends of changes in the environmental situation in regions are smoother than in cities. The more diversified the region’s economy, the smaller the range of fluctuations of the comprehensive index of anthropogenic impact; the more developed a large-city settlement pattern, the more complex and diverse the factors of the regional environmental situation.

ОЦЕНКА ВЗАИМОСВЯЗИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА И ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПРОФИЛЯ РЕГИОНА

The relevance of the research is conditioned by the necessity to strengthen the control over the state of ecological space of regions, which is caused by the significant growth of the load on the environment of the regions, the priority of which is industrial growth within the framework of following the state policy of import substitution in the conditions of strict sanctions restrictions of the Western countries. In this connection the task of formation of ecological profile of the region and analysis of interrelation between the growth of industrial production and environmental load of the region is of particular urgency and practical importance. To solve this problem, in this article the author investigates the processes of the regional spatial and sectoral structure development in terms of correlation between the dynamics of industrial production and the changes of the regional ecological profile (using the example of the Perm Region), in order to identify and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and the changes in the ecological profile of the region. The subject of the study is the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region. The goal of the study is to establish and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region. The ecological profile of the region in the framework of this study is understood as a system of indicators, which characterize the ecological situation on the territory of the region and make it possible to assess the ecological burden on the environment of the region. The formation of the system of indicators, constituting the ecological profile of the region, will allow to carry out an objective analysis of the technogenic load on the ecological system of the region. Thus, the formation of the system of indicators seems to be the primary task in achieving the goal of the study. Research objectives are the following: - to perform a theoretical review of scientific research in the field of analysis and assessment of the environment state and environmental safety of industrial regions; - to consider the existing methodological approaches to the assessment of the environmental component of the territories’ development and ratings of the regions’ environment state; - to form a system of indicators revealing the ecological profile of the region (on the example of the Perm Region); - to develop a methodology for assessing the dynamics of the region's environmental profile; - to identify and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and the ecological profile of the region. The following research methods have become the basis of the study: analysis, synthesis, synthesis, grouping, systematization and classification. To solve individual problems, methods of comparative and statistical analysis, tabular and graphical representation of data, organizational and economic modeling, integral and correlation analysis have been used. The materials of the study are the scientific works of leading Russian academic economists dealing with the problems of the impact of intensification of territorial development, including industrial complex on the environment of the regions, as well as the official statistical data of state statistics agencies and the results of studies of various rating agencies. In the article an author's definition of the concept of "ecological profile of the region" and a system of indicators is offered, which disclose its content and make it possible to conduct an objective analysis of the technogenic burden on the environment of the region. To establish and assess the relationship between the dynamics of industrial production and changes in the ecological profile of the region the authors have developed an author's methodology of the ecological profile state estimation which includes calculation of integral indices of positive and negative impact on the environment and evaluation of dependence of the calculated indices on the index of regional industrial production by correlation method. The proposed methodological approach has been approbated using the Perm Territory as an example and as a result direct correlation between intensification of industrial production and growth of environmental load expressed in deterioration of the region's ecological profile has been revealed. The results obtained confirm the determining role of industrial production in the ecological profile of the Perm Territory and the need to intensify the processes of ecologization of production in view of increasing pressure on the environment

Evaluation of the innovation activities of companies in the competitive EU market – external factors

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the innovation activities of companies in the EU countries, taking into consideration the external factors. Design/methodology/approach: This article focuses on the analysis of the most frequently used factors determining the external conditions of the companies innovation activities with the use of taxonomic analysis. The research was conducted on the annual data for years 2017-2019 for the selected European countries. The data from the databases of OECD and Eurostat were used in the analysis. Findings: The results of the conducted analysis allow to conclude that the state and organisation of innovation activities in the economy and thus, in the companies is strongly dependent on external factors. The averages and quartiles were calculated to show the dynamics of the factors. Moreover, Ward dendrogram was presented to show the similarities and differences in shaping the innovation activities. The synthetic indicator was used to determine the development path and the map of objects was drawn. There is a strict connection between the amount of expenditures on R&D and the employees’ education concerning the implementation of the innovation activities in all analysed countries. In particular, it is visible in the Scandinavian countries and in Luxembourg. In Poland the innovation activities of companies is similar to the ones in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The low level of GERD causes that many companies have financial problems and despite high dynamics of industrial production, the innovativeness is still at a low level. Research limitations/implications: The comparison of Poland with other countries would surely give a wider picture whether the innovation processes are performed in an efficient way. The accessibility of data, for each country, used in the research not only limited the period of analysis but also determined the selection of variables. The analysis was based on the data from the mentioned databases to make it more reliable. Practical implications: The information obtained during the conducted analysis may facilitate the process of proper decision making referring to the management of innovations. The implementation of innovations guarantees not only the company development but also greater transparency in the information and knowledge flow among the workers. Originality/value: The analysis of external factors of the innovation activities is really important as the investments in innovation activities are the more and more important GDP part and the numerical taxonomy methods enable to indicate, indirectly, these countries which should be models for Poland so that it could organise and manage the innovation processes. The analysis of innovation activities makes it possible to indicate desired directions of changes 564 A. Strzelecka in the management of Polish companies. Thus, it is a basis to take decisions in the competitive markets.

Типологизация промышленных систем стран Центрально- Восточной и Юго-Восточной Европы

The differences between the countries of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe in terms of socio-economic and, in particular, industrial development suggests the use of complex approach to their study. At the same time, the formation of industrial potential takes place in similar, but not identical institutional conditions, which allows the development of typologies and classifi cations as a result of qualitative and quantitative data generalization. We analyzed intraregional differences in indicators of industrial production dynamics, its role in the economic development, the supply and cost of labor resources, foreign trade diversifi cation and the level of foreign capital penetration, structural rationalization and the effi ciency of enterprises. In addition, on the example of the countries of the region, the relationship between labor productivity and the share of foreign companies in the production structure was studied. The proposed typology of industrial systems in CEE and SEE countries is based on a comparison of two groups of indicators characterizing 1) the main trend in the industrial development and its contribution to economic growth (reindustrialization, recurrent / repeated deindustrialization, persistent deindustrialization, secondary / market industrialization); 2) the effi ciency of factors of production, the extent of involvement in global economic relations, the focus on the products with high added-value (intensive, extensive and transitional industrial development).

A Comparative Analysis of the Power of Selected European Countries. The Economic Determinants

The ever-increasing need for in-depth analysis and quantification of the national power, in particular ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power-generating factors as well as difficulties in identifying a comprehensive and effective method for scientific determination of the national power, have given rise to research in the indicated scientific issues within this article. The presented considerations aim to define the assumptions for a descriptive sub-model that would enable a comparison of Poland’s power in the economic sphere (which is a component of the non-military sphere) with the power of selected European countries. The research hypothesis is that, among the variety of descriptive variables in the economic sphere of the national power, there is a subset of mutually independent variables, at the same time strongly correlated with the national power, which make it possible to define assumptions for the sub-model of the national power. The steps of the research procedure were carried out using the method of system analysis (multi-criteria comparative analysis) and statistical analysis. The research activities undertaken have shown that the factors that are strongly correlated with the national power in the economic area of the European countries adopted for the analysis are: dynamics of industrial production, private sector credit flows and economic freedom index. The comparative analysis carried out demonstrates that the greatest increase in the economic power in the analysed period took place in Germany (0.68). Slightly smaller growth was recorded in the Czech Republic (0.62) and Poland (0.60), while the lowest value of increase was in Romania (0.23). The conducted qualitative comparative analysis of the economic power of selected European countries allowed to conclude that the independent variables identified are crucial for the formation of the economic power of the analysed countries. At the same time, a fairly strong position of the Czech Republic and Poland in relation to the economic power of Germany was found. The performed quantification of the economic power of the European countries provides a basis for the correct determination of changes in the power distribution of political units, assessment of the power and resources held by the state.

Heterogeneous effects of foreign exchange appreciation on industrial output: Evidence from disaggregated manufacturing data

Real exchange rate fluctuations impact domestic economic activity throughout the trade and financial channels. Using granular data from the Brazilian manufacturing sector, we decompose the manufacturing sector into different sub-sectors according to their net exposures to international trade and analyze how the industrial production responds to real exchange rate appreciation innovations. On the aggregate level, our evidence suggests a non-significant role of the exchange rate in explaining the dynamics of industrial production, before and after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. However, consistent with the trade channel of real exchange rates, we find that shocks to the exchange rate (e.g., an unanticipated depreciation) positively (negatively) affect output in net export (import) sectors. Though non-homogeneous, these effects are modest in terms of economic magnitude. Further, by including analysts’ macroeconomic forecasts in the model, we find that such effects stem from exogenous, unanticipated shocks to the exchange rate. Our evidence is robust to a trade-weighted measure of the exchange rate and to alternative manufacturing outcomes rather than output. Overall, our results highlight how heterogeneous are manufacturing responses to exchange rate shocks in an important emerging economy.

Моделювання нестійкості розвитку складних ієрархічних систем

The article suggests using modern instruments of dynamic analysis, i.e. the theories of phase, cointegration, and bifurcation analysis and the catastrophe theory to improve the methodology to study the dynamic pattern of the development indices of complex hierarchical systems (CHS) and their relationship. The article elaborates the main directions for creating research models, which would describe the interaction between the development indices of CHS, grounded on estimating and analyzing pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis phenomena in hierarchical social and economic territorial systems. A conceptual framework algorithm is designed to model the dynamic pattern of the CHS development using modern economic and mathematical instruments to study the dynamics of time-series data and assess the relationship of CHS indices. Complex models have been implemented to monitor the key CHS development indices based on the phase and cointegration analysis of the relationship between the following processes: investment and GDP; GDP and industrial production dynamics; GDP dynamics and import volumes dynamics; wages dynamics and industrial production dynamics; migration and natural population growth. As part of the implementation of a comprehensive model for monitoring key indices of CHS development based on bifurcation analysis and the catastrophe theory, the supercritical Hopf bifurcation is built in the relationship model of imports and GDP; surfaces of the functions of Kaldor’s model and a three-dimensional Kaldor’s model are constructed. The suggested complex toolkit for research models of the CHS development instability gives us the opportunity to draw conclusions about the reasons and factors of the occurrence of endogenous (self-generating) fluctuations and bifurcations; about the probability of catastrophes and crises arising in complex hierarchical economic systems. The solution of problems caused by the CHS development instability on the basis of complex application of phase, cointegration and bifurcation analysis will allow us to predict crisis situations in advance and to offer methods of their prevention, to find complex ways out of crisis situations.

Инвестиционная привлекательность регионов: классификационный анализ для Приволжского федерального округа

Based on 15 indicators of socio-economic situation, an integral indicator of the assessment of investment attractiveness was formed and ranking the subjects of the Russian Federation, which are part of the Volga Federal District. As a result of hierarchical cluster analysis, the Volga Regions are distributed in five clusters, taking into account the standard of living of the population, financial opportunities and industrial production dynamics in 2018. From the point of view of authors, the obtained classification of regions can be used in making decisions on the implementation of investment projects in the Volga Federal District

Industrial Production Dynamics, May through July 2021: Growth Factors

Industrial Production Dynamics, May through July 2021: Growth Factors

Opportunities and Threats for Innovative Import Substitution in Russia

The article examines the development of import substitution in Russia from the historical perspective, confirming the need for an innovative strategy instead of the model of catch-up development. The study investigates international and domestic approaches to the implementation and impact of innovations, noting achievements and considerable potential of Russian science. Analysis of certain economic indicators for the period 2017-2019 revealed positive trends in the development of agricultural industry, negative dynamics of industrial production, a decline in manufacturing production and growth in mining. A decrease in research and development expenditures and a decline in the number of design, design and survey organizations, and researchers led to a decrease in production share of high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries in gross domestic product. There is a slight increase in exports, including its share in world exports. The problems and achievements of import substitution are considered on the example of the agricultural and aviation industries. The SWOT analysis identified the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for the development of Russian import substitution, considering the innovative component. Finally, the paper proposes an author’s approach to a cross-sectoral assessment of import substitute products in order to create an effective import substitution mechanism, considering the innovative component.

Statistical analysis of the dynamics, structure and tendencies of development of the alcoholic industry of the russian federation

Importance. The alcoholic industry is extremely interesting as an object for economic analysis as one of the most important sources of financing for the state budget. Any interference in its activities has quite obvious short-term effects and less predictable long-term consequences that can negatively affect the socio-economic development of the state. Objectives. Statistical analysis of the dynamics, structure and development trends of the alcohol industry in the Russian Federation and the identification of factors affecting the activities of organizations in the alcohol industry during the crisis. Method. During the research, we used parametric methods of data analysis and machine learning, descriptive method, analysis and synthesis. Results. State control over the production, storage, and supply of alcoholic beverages has significantly increased in the period under study. This trend is due to the global policy of quantifying and increasing the culture of consumption of alcoholic beverages. The authors found signs of a shift from a "northern" to "Central European" consumption model. Significant changes took place in the dynamics of industrial production and retail sales of alcoholic beverages. The authors paid special attention to the assessment of structural changes during the active phase of the anti-alcohol reform. The observed changes in the excise policy of the state have led to an increase in the burden on producers and distribution infrastructure.decline in production and consumption was observed practically for all enlarged groups of alcoholic beverages. The authors found that the implemented excise policy has a different effect on the volume of production and retail sales of large groups of alcoholic beverages. The production and sale of spirits is most sensitive to changes in excise taxes. The production and sales of wine products were the least sensitive. Moreover, during the recession, production showed positive dynamics. It is obvious that there are risks generated by an aggressive excise policy and a policy of price caps, which can lead to destabilization of the alcoholic beverages market, as well as the displacement of capital into the shadow sector.