Statistical analysis of the dynamics, structure and tendencies of development of the alcoholic industry of the russian federation

Abstract

Importance. The alcoholic industry is extremely interesting as an object for economic analysis as one of the most important sources of financing for the state budget. Any interference in its activities has quite obvious short-term effects and less predictable long-term consequences that can negatively affect the socio-economic development of the state. Objectives. Statistical analysis of the dynamics, structure and development trends of the alcohol industry in the Russian Federation and the identification of factors affecting the activities of organizations in the alcohol industry during the crisis. Method. During the research, we used parametric methods of data analysis and machine learning, descriptive method, analysis and synthesis. Results. State control over the production, storage, and supply of alcoholic beverages has significantly increased in the period under study. This trend is due to the global policy of quantifying and increasing the culture of consumption of alcoholic beverages. The authors found signs of a shift from a "northern" to "Central European" consumption model. Significant changes took place in the dynamics of industrial production and retail sales of alcoholic beverages. The authors paid special attention to the assessment of structural changes during the active phase of the anti-alcohol reform. The observed changes in the excise policy of the state have led to an increase in the burden on producers and distribution infrastructure.decline in production and consumption was observed practically for all enlarged groups of alcoholic beverages. The authors found that the implemented excise policy has a different effect on the volume of production and retail sales of large groups of alcoholic beverages. The production and sale of spirits is most sensitive to changes in excise taxes. The production and sales of wine products were the least sensitive. Moreover, during the recession, production showed positive dynamics. It is obvious that there are risks generated by an aggressive excise policy and a policy of price caps, which can lead to destabilization of the alcoholic beverages market, as well as the displacement of capital into the shadow sector.