Dynamic Trading Research Articles

Korea–China Trade Dynamics: Exploring the Role of Crude Oil Prices

ABSTRACTThis research examines the short‐ and long‐term impacts of macroeconomic variables, such as real income levels and exchange rates, on Korea's trade flows with China, focusing on 33 specific commodity groups. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology, this study incorporates oil‐related factors – namely crude oil prices and their volatility – into traditional export and import models. The results demonstrate that real income levels in Korea and China considerably influence trade dynamics, affecting exports and imports across various periods. The bilateral exchange rate has a significant impact, with its effects being more pronounced on exports in the long term and imports in the short term. Furthermore, the research highlights that crude oil prices and their volatility significantly, yet varied, affect trade flows, contingent on the trade's nature and duration. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, particularly in understanding the recent shifts in Korea's trade balance with China and in formulating economic and trade strategies to manage fluctuations in the trade balance.

An Inventory Model of a Decaying Item with Fuzzy Lifetime and Decay Rate under Dynamic Trade Credit and Variable Demand

An inventory model of a decaying item is proposed considering dynamic credit period to the consumers, fuzzy life time of the units, time-dependent fuzzy decaying rate, and freshness dependent dynamic imprecise demand. Decaying rate of units depends on its lifetime and is considered as a dynamic monotonic increasing function of the same. To encourage the consumers, the retailer provides a credit on a part of the purchase and due to the dynamic decreasing nature of the freshness of units, the credit interval is considered as dynamic increasing. The unit cost, consumer credit period, and credit amount have impact on demand. As demand is fuzzy, some units may left at any cycle ending and are put up for sell in lot in a lump sum price. The model is formulated using fuzzy mathematical tools to decide the optimal cycle length, unit selling price, and order quantity to optimize the annual fuzzy profit from a cycle. A modified form of particle swarm optimization is applied to get the best decision, in which, using fuzzy credibility measure the objectives corresponding to two feasible solutions are compared to select the better one. Proper fuzzy simulation approaches are followed to determine the required credibility measures.

An Examination of How the Monetary Policies of the United States Federal Reserve Affect Both the Imports and Exports of Emerging Market Economies

The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, especially changes in interest rates, has a significant impact on international capital flows and the macroeconomic stability of emerging market nations. This study examines the intricate processes by which changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, such as increases or decreases in interest rates, have a major knock-on effect on the world's financial markets. Changes in capital flows, exchange rates, and financial circumstances are some of these factors that affect emerging economies' import and export operations. Through an analysis of the connection between trade dynamics and U.S. monetary policy, this article reveals the ways in which fluctuations in capital flows and changes in the economy impact emerging markets' trade balance. Moreover, the study highlights the strategic importance of understanding these interactions for developing effective trade policies and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The findings provide practical insights into how emerging market countries can mitigate the adverse impacts of Fed policy shifts and sustain stability in the increasingly interconnected global trading system.

Trade - Growth Nexus in Nepal: A Gravity Model Approach

Purpose of the Study: This study investigates the relationship between trade and economic growth in Nepal, focusing on how factors such as GDP, population, and geographical distance affect Nepal’s exports and imports. The research question addresses: "How do these factors influence Nepal's trade dynamics?" Methods/Design: A gravity model framework was used, with panel data analysis employing fixed and random effects models. The Hausman test determined the appropriate model. Data on trade partners' GDP, population, and geographical distance were collected to estimate the model. Findings: The analysis shows that Nepal’s exports are positively influenced by the GDP and population of trade partners, while geographical distance negatively impacts trade. Closer countries are more favorable trading partners. The random effects model proved to be the most appropriate estimator, with both the export and import models demonstrating strong explanatory power. Conclusion/Implications: The findings suggest that Nepal should focus on export diversification and strengthen regional trade relations to foster economic growth. Policymakers can use these insights to improve trade strategies and regional cooperation. Limitations of the Study: The study is limited by data constraints and does not account for informal trade flows, which could affect the results. Originality of the Study: This study uniquely applies the gravity model to Nepal’s trade context, addressing challenges faced by landlocked developing countries.

Neo-sustainable Growth Theory: Study of Extended HO Model to Productive Factors’ Virtual Movements

This paper aims to fill the critical gap in the existing literature, which often treats trade and sustainability as separate fields. By combining these two dimensions, it would open avenues for new policy recommendations and strategies for promoting sustainable development in an increasingly interconnected global -economy. In terms of theoretical foundations, I link economics, technology and environmental sciences, to enrich the academic discourse and provide a comprehensive framework for future studies. This provides a unique perspective between economic growth and volatility through the lens of intergenerational and international productive factors’ virtual movements. By extending the Heckscher-Ohlin theory to incorporate virtual trade and intergenerational dynamics, the findings offer a fresh theoretical framework and empirical evidence that enrich our understanding of globalization’s mechanisms. The study’s findings on the Production Possibilities Frontier (PPF) and its implications for achieving general equilibrium contribute to ongoing debates about sustainable development and economic interdependencies. The article’s innovative approach and its comprehensive analysis offer a unique foundation to addressing real-world economic challenges. More specifically, using panel data to test the positive and negative relationships between growth and volatility and the impact of productive factors’ virtual movements, I find, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory extended to the virtual movements of factors between countries and between generations is not only empirically verified but constitutes the real foundation of sustainability. Thus, a systematic practicing of the whole set of the extended Heckscher-Ohlin theory’s full set of hypotheses as a nation’s social laws and policies or strategies, is necessarily leading to sustainable development locally and globally.

Liquid Regionalism in Latin America: The Institutional and Trade Dynamics of the Latin American Integration Association

The Latin American Integration Association (LAIA) represents a commercial integration process that exemplifies the concept of liquid regionalism. Its defining characteristics include a lack of commitment and interest among member states, coupled with a pronounced pursuit of trade alternatives beyond regional boundaries. Rather than evolving into a robust common market, LAIA has primarily functioned as a zone of tariff preferences.This article aims to highlight the fragility of commercial integration within LAIA and to analyze the strong tendency toward extra-regional trade, which undermines the foundational principles of Latin American regionalism. The study provides a comprehensive examination of the historical context, evolution, and institutional framework of LAIA, with a particular focus on intra-regional trade dynamics and the Association's interactions with other regions and countries.The analysis concludes that LAIA epitomizes liquid regionalism in Latin America, a characterization stemming from the limited commitment of its member states, the institutional flexibility that defines its operations, and the prioritization of extra-regional trade at the expense of achieving its original objectives of economic integration and cooperation.Although LAIA was conceived within the framework of open regionalism in Latin America, it has not developed into a fully-fledged regional integration process. Instead, its focus has remained narrowly confined to facilitating trade exchanges. The intergovernmental regionalism model underpinning LAIA has failed to progress toward the establishment of a free trade area, contradicting the objectives outlined in the Treaty of Montevideo.

Financial development and global trade: Insights from G20 economies

This study examines the intricate relationship between financial development (FD) and international trade within the G20 from 1980 to 2021. A composite FD index, derived using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) from World Bank and IMF data, serves as the primary metric for analysis. Employing Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling, the study identifies a strong long-term positive correlation between FD and international trade, addressing a critical gap in the literature by integrating FD and trade dynamics at a macroeconomic scale. The findings reveal that FD negatively impacts trade and exports in the short run, but this relationship reverses in the long term, with FD positively influencing trade and exports while reducing imports. The bidirectional causality between FD and trade components highlights their reciprocal dependence, indicating that fluctuations in imports or exports can predict changes in FD and vice versa. These dynamics reflect the influence of G20 policies promoting financial stability and trade liberalization. This research underscores the pivotal role of advanced financial systems in fostering trade-driven economic growth. It offers policymakers critical insights for leveraging FD and trade integration as tools for sustainable development, providing a strategic framework to enhance global economic progress within the G20 context.

Power, Status, and the Archaeology of the Atlantic Experience in Peki, Ghana

ABSTRACT This paper explores the history and archaeology of trans-Atlantic trade in Peki, a frontier Ewe community in present-day southeastern Ghana. From the 17th–19th century a.d., Peki and other inland Ewe communities became entangled in the global commercial activities and local power dynamics of the trans-Atlantic trade in the Gold Coast in ways that complicate the strict dichotomy between Indigenous victims and perpetrators of the trade in enslaved people. By examining the materiality of grave goods uncovered from an elite burial context—glass beads, cowries, and copper ornaments—the paper provides nuanced insights into how Atlantic prestige goods may have been appropriated and used to negotiate political, economic, military, and religious power and status in Peki. It posits Peki’s landscape of slavery as an important case study through which we can better understand the experiences of Indigenous interior communities that survived in the interstices of more powerful expansionist states in West Africa during the Atlantic slave trade. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of a community-engaged approach to the archaeology of slavery in the African interior.

Global Soybean Trade: A Complex Network Analysis of Key Exporters and Importers (2003-2023)

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global soybean trade, emphasizing its evolution and significance in the context of food security and nutrition. Originating in East Asia, soybeans have transformed into a crucial commodity, particularly influenced by geopolitical dynamics and trade relations, especially between the United States and China. Recent disruptions, including tariffs and the COVID-19 pandemic, have reshaped trade flows, presenting both challenges and opportunities for various countries. Utilizing Social Network Analysis (SNA), the study elucidates the complex interconnections among producers, exporters, and importers, highlighting key players like the U.S. and Brazil as dominant exporters while China stands out as the largest importer. The research underscores the environmental implications of soybean cultivation, particularly in Brazil, where expansion has led to deforestation. By analyzing trade patterns from 2003 to 2023, the article aims to inform policymakers and stakeholders about the intricate dynamics of soybean trade, ensuring strategies that promote food security and sustainable practices amid ongoing global challenges.

Navigating access and benefit sharing in international trade of endemic species: The case of Colombia's poison frogs (Dendrobatidae)

AbstractWildlife is an important global commodity that generates significant revenue along the supply chain, including economic benefits in range states for sought‐after species. However, international trade in wild species is often associated with over‐exploitation and illegal extraction. To regulate, monitor, and ensure the sustainability of such trade, over 180 countries have ratified the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Using national data collected through CITES processes, we undertook a network analysis to evaluate the structure and dynamics of international trade in six CITES‐listed species of Colombian endemic poison frogs (Dendrobatidae). We assessed the magnitude of the international trade and the countries that were reporting legal imports/exports, both before and after Colombia allowed legal exports of these species, to examine the changes associated with Colombia's export legalization and to draw conclusions about the country's role and benefits from trade in these species. Our analyses show that, for over two decades, international trade of CITES‐listed species likely in contravention of the Convention resulted in significant exports—and likely greater financial benefits—accruing in non‐range states through reported captive breeding programs. Although the market was reconfigured when Colombia legalized the export of certain endemic frog species, non‐range states with founder stocks obtained from unknown and possibly illegal sources continue to account for a significant portion of the trade volume of some species (mostly, Phyllobates spp.). We discuss the importance of enforcing regulations and collaborations that promote better traceability of international commerce of endemic species to ensure the legitimacy of transactions, economic benefits for origin countries, and the conservation of species in the wild.

Macroeconomic and energy impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: A comparative analysis across countries

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered profound economic and energy-related consequences, reshaped global priorities, and exposed systemic vulnerabilities. The current study aimed to examine pre- and post-invasion trends in key economic and energy indicators for a diverse set of countries: Ukraine and Russia as directly involved parties; the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom as supporters of Ukraine; and China, India, and Türkiye as neutral actors maintaining economic ties with Russia. Using structural time series analysis over the period 2000–2023, the analysis maps economic booms and busts by identifying cycle deviations through a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The findings reveal significant variations in the conflict’s impact, highlighting disruptions in GDP growth, energy systems, and trade dynamics across regions. The study underscores how the war has accelerated energy transitions, redefined global economic resilience, and reshaped international economic and political relationships.

Trade Potential in the Bilateral Relationship Between Indonesia-South Korea (Perspective: SITC Agregat 1 Digit) 2013-2022

The Republic of Indonesia and South Korea have engaged in a bilateral cooperation spanning 50 years across diverse domains. Despite the success of this collaboration in augmenting the overall trade between the two nations in alignment with their initial economic objectives, the trajectory of trade development has not consistently followed a linear pattern. This study aims to elucidate the trading dynamics between Indonesia and South Korea from 2013 to 2022. This period was selected as it reflects significant dynamics in bilateral trade relations as well as global economic fluctuations that influenced the trade patterns of both countries. This is achieved through a comprehensive analysis utilizing methodologies such as the Grubel-Lloyd Index, Trade Balance Index (TBI), Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), and Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage Index (RSCA). The research outcomes reveal a high degree of industrial interrelatedness within 10 commodity groups, with 7 exhibiting robust integration and 3 displaying varying degrees of integration ranging from moderate to weak. Despite the sustained high level of compatibility in the trade structure, discernible fluctuations are observed in trade surpluses and deficits. The analysis of the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage Index highlights the absence of significant comparative advantages for Indonesia across the majority of the analyzed commodities. Notwithstanding marginal alterations in the Product Mapping classification, statistical analyses of (IIT), TBI, TCI, and RSCA underscore bilateral trade's nuanced and dynamic nature, with annual fluctuations necessitating focused attention.

Threads of change: textile production and consumption during the Early Iron Age in Eastern Iberia

The establishment of Phoenician colonies in the South and East of Iberia between the 9th and 8th centuries BCE directly and indirectly provided an unprecedented stimulus for the economic and social development of the local communities, which became increasingly integrated into the trade dynamics of the Mediterranean. Textile production and consumption seem to have played a significant role that has not been sufficiently appreciated so far and that will be the basis of the spectacular textile development that followed. Therefore, this article analyses the textile tools and elements related to clothing found in different archaeological sites in Eastern Iberia between the 8th and 6th centuries BC, both indigenous and Phoenician, which coexisted in the same territory, establishing important economic and exchange relationships. The evidence seems to indicate significant changes in textile tools, but above all in the organisation of production and forms of textile consumption.

Analyzing Bilateral Trade Dynamics between Azerbaijan and Pakistan: A Robust Least Squares Regression Approach

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 14pt;">The diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Pakistan have undergone significant development since the late 1990s. Despite some studies focusing on diplomatic and political relations, the economic dimension of this partnership has not been systematically covered. In this paper, a robust least squares (RLS) approach is used to model bilateral trade between the two countries and identify statistically significant determinants, including economic, institutional, and cultural factors, after analyzing the main economic and subsectoral trade dynamics of both countries. The results reveal that Azerbaijan's imports from Pakistan are significantly associated with the country's higher income and market size, while Pakistan's elevated exchange rate and trade costs hinder bilateral trade. In addition, Pakistan's rising manufacturing output increases exports to Azerbaijan but decreases imports from Azerbaijan. Among institutional determinants, government effectiveness, the trade freedom index (TFI), and political stability play significant roles in bilateral trade. Lastly, it was found that cultural proximity increases Pakistani exports to Azerbaijan but not imports from Azerbaijan. The analysis also indicates that domestic savings stimulate Pakistani exports. These findings underscore the complex nature of bilateral trade between Azerbaijan and Pakistan and highlight the need for institutional arrangements to harmonize trade flows and boost welfare gains from trade. The results may be of great importance to intergovernmental working groups, domestic policymakers, and businesses.</span></p>

Kebijakan Produk Standarisasi International

International product standardization policies are related to the dynamics of global trade and the complexity of the current global market. In an ever-evolving and globally connected environment, harmonization of product standards is important to facilitate the more efficient flow of goods and services across borders. Differences in national standards between countries can be a major obstacle in international trade. Therefore, a uniform and compatible standardization policy throughout the world is essential to create a fair and open trading environment for all market participants. This research aims to determine the use of standardization in Indonesia and what benefits are obtained from implementing product standardization policies.

Unveiling maritime trading practices: micro-provenance analysis of Dehua-style porcelain from the Nanhai I shipwreck

ABSTRACT Identification of the origins of maritime-traded porcelain, though key to unravelling ancient production and trade dynamics, remains challenging. The authors present a pioneering micro-provenance analysis of Dehua-style porcelain from the late-twelfth-century Nanhai I shipwreck, recovered from the South China Sea. By pinpointing the origins of porcelain subtypes, including those bearing ink inscriptions, this study provides greater nuance in understanding spatial patterns of production and the impact of buyer/seller choice in maritime trade. The findings further highlight the effectiveness of portable x-ray fluorescence as a high-precision provenancing analysis and offer insights into porcelain production timelines in south-east China.

The State Abroad: The Role of Emerging Market SOEs in International Business Dynamics

Purpose: This study examines emerging market State-Owned Multinationals’ (SOEs’) impact on the international business landscape by emphasising their dual role as commercial units and government instruments. Addressing the mainstream frameworks on internationalisation, we uncover the ways these firms navigate the complexities of global trade, thus contributing to the understanding of international business dynamics in the context of global power balances. Design/Methodology/Approach: By making use of a narrative literature review, this research aims to synthesise perspectives from a wide array of academic contributions found in leading international business journals. By examining this literature, the study seeks to integrate theories with findings from recent discussions on the internationalisation of emerging market SOEs. Through this methodological approach, we seek to elucidate the role of these firms in global trade and government dynamics in market operations. Findings: This research shows the increasing role of SOEs in the global market, with the rising protagonist part of emerging markets such as the BRICS countries. These firms play an important role of intersection in the commercial objectives and the geopolitical ambitions of their home country. The interaction between state influence, the institutional contexts in both home and host nation, and strategies both in political and economic terms are important perspectives brought by this research. Research limitation/Implications: The limitations of this research are the reliance on published academic literature, which may not always capture the dynamics of international business and the political scenario and its rapid developments, and the unstructured nature of a narrative literature review. The findings from this research have important implications for policymakers and business managers, as well as for the scholarly literature when understanding the internationalisation of emerging market SOEs.

The Impact of the Pacific Alliance on Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the COVID-19 Period: A Robust Econometric Analysis

(1) Background: The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted global trade, posing challenges for regional trade agreements such as the Pacific Alliance, comprising Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. This study investigates the Pacific Alliance’s impact on trade creation and diversion during the pandemic, exploring how regional cooperation mitigated trade disruptions. (2) Methods: A quantitative approach utilizing econometric models, including ordinary least squares, Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, and the Heckman selection model, was employed. The gravity model of trade was applied to bilateral trade data from 1948 to 2021, incorporating COVID-19-specific variables to assess trade dynamics. (3) Results: The analysis revealed significant trade creation within the Pacific Alliance during the pandemic, with intra-bloc trade strengthening despite global disruptions. However, evidence of trade diversion from non-member countries was mixed and inconclusive. (4) Conclusions: The Pacific Alliance demonstrated resilience during the COVID-19 period, fostering regional trade creation and cushioning the impact of global trade shocks. While trade diversion remains uncertain, the study highlights the critical role of regional trade agreements in stabilizing trade flows during global crises, offering valuable insights for future policy and regional cooperation strategies.

Driving productivity: a comparison of the Indian automobile manufacturers and component suppliers

ABSTRACT This study analyzes the factors influencing productivity within the Indian Automobile industry, specifically examining the component manufacturers and the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Utilising a dynamic panel data model, we assess the effects of lagged R&D stock, trade dynamics, and firm-specific factors on total factor productivity spanning the period 2000–2023. Our findings underscore the significant impact of a firm’s lagged R&D stock, lagged export intensity and the import of embodied and disembodied technology in the industry. While lagged export intensity plays a significant role in improving productivity, with a greater impact on the OEM segment, the influence of technology imports differs across both segments. Specifically, OEMs benefit more from the import of embodied technology or capital equipment, while the component segment from disembodied technology or royalty payments and licensing. We also find that electric vehicle penetration has a significant positive impact on the productivity of the OEM segment alone, indicating that the benefits of the new technology do not have a visible impact on the industry as a whole. These results highlight distinct patterns in technological learning between the two segments, unveiling structural variations within the industry.

Digital dynamics: exploring ICT's role in revolutionising Nigeria's trade sectors

PurposeThis study examined the influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on Nigeria's trade in sectors. Specifically, the research evaluated the effects of internet penetration, mobile phone subscriptions and fixed telephone subscriptions on exports and imports.Design/methodology/approachThe study considered data from 1995 to 2022, highlighting ten trade sectors per standard international trade classification (SITC) single digit. It utilised the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) with a preference for a pooled mean group (PMG) estimator.FindingsThe study finds that, in the short run, increases in internet penetration, mobile phone subscriptions and fixed telephone subscriptions significantly decrease export levels in Nigeria. Nonetheless, ICT advancements, particularly in mobile and fixed telephone subscriptions, significantly boost import activities by 17.9 and 41.5% in the long run, highlighting their positive impact on trade dynamics. In the long run, mobile telephone subscriptions substantially negatively affect exports. In contrast, internet penetration and fixed telephone subscriptions show no significant impact, indicating differing influences of ICT components on trade over time.Practical implicationsThe study underscored the need to prioritise enhancing ICT infrastructure to boost export growth, especially in sectors identified under the SITC framework. Strategies should be developed to mitigate the negative impacts associated with ICT advancements.Originality/valueThe study used the SITC framework, which presents different export and import sectors. It offers a distinctive examination of the short- and long-term effects of ICT on Nigeria's trade sectors. It also provided valuable insights into the impact of mobile and internet technologies on exports and imports, highlighting sector-specific effects and the need for strategic resource allocation.