Dynamics In India Research Articles

Molecular Characterization of Cryptosporidium to Study Transmission Dynamics in India

Molecular Characterization of Cryptosporidium to Study Transmission Dynamics in India

Social Media Fake News and Political Culture: Patterns, Implications and Electoral Dynamics in India

Social Media Fake News and Political Culture: Patterns, Implications and Electoral Dynamics in India

Emergence of Act East Policy: A Threat to the China’s Imperialism in Asian Pacific Region

This research paper focuses upon the dynamics of India’s Act East policy as an emerging threat to china’s security in the Indian Ocean region. Modi’s policy to build infrastructure in South-East Asian states with the execution of Act East strategy. India’s has been closely watching the China’s presence in the Indo-pacific region. To keep in mind this scenario India’s effort to improve her image in international affairs. The rising power of India as her evolving foreign policy towards the economic powers of the East and engagements in the direction of Asian Pacific region has been more progressive. To counter the China’s strategic development and economic advancement towards the Oceania region, that commonly reflected under the String of Pearls policy. In this framework, this paper would analyze India’s policy for IOR islands, Quad collaboration and the role of Indian North-Eastern states to strengthening their socio-economic and cultural ties with neighboring border-states.

Carbon Emission Dynamics in India Due to Financial Development, Renewable Energy Utilization, Technological Innovation, Economic Growth, and Urbanization

Concerns about climate change, emission reduction, and environmental sustainability have become crucial in accomplishing long-term development goals. The present study explored the dynamic effects of financial development, renewable energy utilization, technological innovation, economic growth, and urbanization on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in India. This investigation quantifies short- and long-run dynamics using time series data from 1990 to 2020 and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The outcomes from ARDL short- and long-run analysis revealed a positive and significant effect of financial development, economic growth, and urbanization on CO2 emissions in India. In contrast, both the short- and long-term coefficients for renewable energy utilization and technological innovation are negative and statistically significant, suggesting that expanding these variables will lead to lower CO2 emissions. The findings were validated by employing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) methods. This research provides novel findings that add to the current literature and may be of special relevance to policymakers in the country because of the role that the financial system plays in environmental concerns.

The Impact of Advanced Economy Monetary Policy on Gold Price Dynamics in India

Gold remains a dynamic investment tool in many economies and is considered a safe- haven during times of crises. The sheer size of the US economy and hence any monetary policy decisions have implications for the global economy and global assets. Since commodities are priced in the US dollar, transmission of shocks to asset prices is bound to happen as investors rebalance portfolio. Now, the direction of movement in gold prices depends on other factors as well. Against this backdrop, we examine the impact of US monetary policy on gold prices in India and try to examine how monetary policy announcements during the pandemic by the Fed has influenced domestic gold prices. Further, we investigate the determinants of domestic gold prices using an ARDL model and find that prices have moved closely with global economic policy uncertainty, thereby demonstrating its safe haven feature and have risen with domestic CPI inflation, thus proving to be an inflation hedge. Thus, the study is expected to upgrade the understanding on the behaviour of investors towards gold, and information processing under uncertainty. JEL Classification: G10, G15.

Bayesian Inference for COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in India Using a Modified SEIR Model

We propose a modified population-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model for a retrospective study of the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in India during the first wave. We extend the conventional SEIR methodology to account for the complexities of COVID-19 infection, its multiple symptoms, and transmission pathways. In particular, we consider a time-dependent transmission rate to account for governmental controls (e.g., national lockdown) and individual behavioral factors (e.g., social distancing, mask-wearing, personal hygiene, and self-quarantine). An essential feature of COVID-19 that is different from other infections is the significant contribution of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases to the transmission cycle. A Bayesian method is used to calibrate the proposed SEIR model using publicly available data (daily new tested positive, death, and recovery cases) from several Indian states. The uncertainty of the parameters is naturally expressed as the posterior probability distribution. The calibrated model is used to estimate undetected cases and study different initial intervention policies, screening rates, and public behavior factors, that can potentially strike a balance between disease control and the humanitarian crisis caused by a sudden strict lockdown.

Social Identity and Conflict Dynamics in Indian History Textbooks

Abstract History textbooks play a critical role in their connection to conflict. While they can play a role in dehumanizing the “other” by propagating the myths and narratives of dominant groups, they can also play a transformational role in challenging discourses and narratives at the root of conflict. This article explores the relationship between social identity and conflict dynamics in India by examining textbooks from three periods of Indian history (colonial, post-independence, and the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party from 1999 to 2004), in order to explore how religion became a salient marker of identity informing social boundary creations and conflict dynamics. This article concludes by suggesting opportunities for future research and possibilities for peace.

Analysing multilevel governance dynamics in India: exercising hierarchy through the Smart Cities Mission

ABSTRACT This paper provides a theoretically informed empirical analysis of how Narendra Modi’s claim of ‘more governance, less government’ is felt in practice in India. It does so through a qualitative case study of the Smart Cities Mission and its implementation in four cities, applying multilevel governance theorizing. It finds centralizing dynamics at play through the use of ‘special purpose vehicles’, which bypass local-level institutions. The paper highlights how multilevel governance dynamics can be shaped through institutional design, a point overlooked in the literature. It also raises questions about the risks of such arrangements for long-term, democratic development.

Gold price dynamics in India: A pre-post-liberalisation comparison

There are considerable differences in gold price movements in India in the periods of pre-and-post globalised regimes. This is because of a change in the controlled regime in the pre-liberalised to a meticulous dilution in the post-liberalised era. Hence, the liberalised period witnessed an upward trend in price dynamics with only occasional dampening in the price cycles. The jewellery sector in India is not driven by local forces as most of the inputs are imported for production and value-added export. It is revealed that the positive impact is the result of liberalisation and related mechanisation. Gold price shows a kind of co-integration of domestic prices with the global cues. In the pre-post-dichotomy, the post-liberalisation period is more integrated with the global prices than the pre-liberalised.

Identifying Inflation Dynamics in India in the Post Reform Period

The present study aims at examining the inflation dynamics in Indian context with a particular focus on its determinants from 1991–1992Q1 to 2017–2018Q4. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of monetary, fiscal, structural and external variables in explaining inflationary tendencies in India in the post economic reform period. To identify the determinants fuelling the inflationary tendencies, the study employs ARDL bounds testing procedure followed by the VECM Granger causality test. The findings indicate that interest rate shock and output growth mitigates inflation while rupee depreciation, money supply generate inflationary pressures in the economy. Moreover, fiscal deficit has inflationary impact only in the short run. The positive link between inflation and openness refutes the applicability of Romer’s hypothesis in the Indian context. VECM based Granger causality indicates that money supply and interest rate causes both output and inflation, which suggests monetary policy in India has an important role to play in the process of economic growth and price stability. JEL Classification: E3, E4, F6, E620

COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination.

The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020–June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0–64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9–75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July–mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence.

Building the state and conceiving the nation: the origins of separatist insurgency in the Mizo Hills, 1945-61

ABSTRACT In 1966 the Mizo National Front (MNF) instigated a separatist conflict against the Indian state. This article argues that an environment conducive for separatist insurgency was created by the early 1960s in the Mizo Hills, a direct result of problematic state- and nation- building practices. First, there was an inability to initiate a successful state-building drive to overcome deep-seated challenges bestowed by colonial rule. Second, the friction between regional and national conceptions of identity was not resolved. This argument exploits a clear research gap. Currently there is a convincing explanation for the MNF’s transition towards civil war between 1961-66. Yet, explaining the structural factors which created an environment conducive for separatist conflict remains elusive. This article plugs that gap, through archive-led historical analysis. In the process, it provides wider insights for conflict dynamics in India’s northeast and raises broader questions about interdisciplinary research in the subfield of intrastate conflict.

Flood-Pulse Variability and Climate Change Effects Increase Uncertainty in Fish Yields: Revisiting Narratives of Declining Fish Catches in India’s Ganga River

River-floodplains support a significant number of small-scale capture fisheries despite having undergone degradation due to human modification of river flows by dams, pollution, and climate change. River fish production is underpinned by the annual flood-pulse and associated environmental changes that act as cues for spawning and dispersal for most species. However, studies on fish stock declines have focused more on overfishing than on hydroclimatic variability. Therefore, understanding how changes in flood-pulse variability influence fishing effort and yields is critical to inform adaptive fisheries’ management. We investigated hydroclimatic factors driving flood-pulse variability and fish catch–effort dynamics in India’s Ganga River over two decades (2000–2020). We compiled fishers’ narratives of changing fish catches through semi-structured interviews to compare them with our observed trends. Flood amplitude showed increasing variability, longer duration, and earlier rise timings, linked to La Niña and El Niño phases. Catches per unit effort were correlated with total yield and effort but did not decline as fishers thought, despite overall declines in yield over time. Hydroclimatic variability was a more significant driver of changing yields than local fishing pressure. Rising uncertainty in fisheries’ production, in response to increasing flood-pulse variability and altered flows in the Gangetic Plains, may be affecting fishing behaviour and underlying resource conflicts.

Nexus between inflation and fiscal deficit: a comparative study of India and China

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the deficit–inflation nexus in the two fastest growing economies, India and China, which happen to be crucial affiliates of the global growth generator countries apart from their association in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses the prism of the vector auto regression framework, for the period 1985–1986 to 2016–2017 for both India and China. For this purpose, gross fiscal deficit, money supply, exchange rate, crude oil prices and output gap are examined as the key elements in the determination of inflation. The econometric framework used chiefly comprises of cointegration analysis, vector error correction model, Granger causality and impulse response functions.FindingsThe findings of this paper support the hypothesis that fiscal deficits are inflationary only in the Indian context and that the Ricardian equivalence cannot be negated for China at least in the short run. The results presented in the paper are a little agnostic about whether New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) explains the inflation dynamics in India, given that both inflation inertia and output gap are not robust. However, for the Chinese economy, NKPC along with structural theory is instrumental in describing trends pertaining to inflation during the period of the study.Practical ImplicationsThe paper warrants broader policy framework to aim at addressing structural bottlenecks to ensure non-inflationary growth keeping in mind the structural views on inflation. Furthermore, the paper fosters greater synthesis between monetary and fiscal policies, especially considering the global economic disruptions the world economy is subject to.Originality/valueConsidering there are only a limited number of studies on fiscal deficit of China, the present paper is of paramount significance in terms of growing concern over the sustainability of the growth process in China. Additionally, the paper is first-of-its-kind attempt to account the effectiveness of a healthy monetary–fiscal interface in achieving macroeconomic stability in India and China.

Labyrinths behind the screen: Ownership and control in TV cable distribution

ABSTRACT The anxieties of consolidation and concentration have been central to the study of the media business across the world. Debates on media ownership have either pointed at business models and regulatory conditions leading to market concentration or the increasing accumulation of interests by political actors in the media business. This paper delves into the simultaneity of such dynamics in India, as refracted in the business of TV distribution. Once merely a downstream segment of the visible and highly researched broadcasting segment, cable distribution has emerged as the prime commercial locus, technological driver, and regulatory site in India’s TV business. Our paper unearths the modes of expansion of leading cable distribution companies across various regions of India. We find the expansion of cable companies rested on a dual engagement with regional ecologies of distribution: first, pursuing commercial growth by capturing, rather than developing, pre-existing regional markets, and second, flexibly engaging with, rather than uniformly steamrolling, incumbent regional actors. To manage these interests, a complex network of subsidiaries, interlocking directorships, and web of employees were created. Such a business-model not only propelled the expansion of what have today become gigantic, cross-regional cable companies but also spawned their peculiar ownership structure.

Inequality, Labour Markets, Economic Development and the Impact of Migration on Poverty, Patterns and Employment Dynamics in India - A Macroeconomic Development Viewpoint

The Indian economy has experienced a transformation from a mixed-plan economy to an emergent middle-income social market economy with strong state intervention in major industries. India has experienced very low average growth rates and significant annual swings since gaining its independence in 1947. The growth rate of India was marginally greater in the 1990s than in earlier decades, and it has since increased. Together with China, its expansion is the key engine powering the continuous expansion of the world economy. Its previous enormous boom contrasts sharply with its current modest growth of 8%. Growth rates and per capita income disparities are much higher in developing countries than in the global average. Low employment growth and the subcontracting of labour to unorganised industries are the causes of the significant decline in the share of workers in the organised sector. This type of employment growth has a small but comparatively significant impact on lowering rural poverty. This research is descriptive and has theoretical foundations. The analysis of theories and points of view in this study is organized. The compilation of secondary data involves using a variety of reports, both published and unpublished. This research article's overall goal is to assess the theoretical aspects of inequality, labour markets, economic development, and the impact of migration on poverty, patterns, and employment dynamics in India from the perspective of macroeconomic development in order to foster human growth in the context of a globalised economy. The research article raises a significant, urgent, and contemporary subject that is relevant from a social, political, and economic point of view.

Current and Capital Account Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Post-Reform Period

This article analyses the dynamics between current account (CA) and capital account in post-liberalisation India. Contemporaneous occurrence of CA deficit along with capital account surplus suggests the possible causal relationship between the two accounts. The theoretical debate around capital account liberalisation (KAL) is developed with the intention to lend support to empirical results for policy formulation. The analysis of arguments for and against KAL liberates us in interpreting the empirical results. Within the framework of KAL, this article proceeds to estimate the relationship between current and capital account. A set of econometric tests are performed on an Indian quarterly data over the period from 1996 to 2018. Econometric analysis reveals that capital account affects CA negatively. Short-run capital and debt flow also affect CA negatively, while foreign direct investment (FDI) affects it positively. We find debt flow to be an important factor, contributing to CA imbalance. Such dynamics is critical for any decision about KAL. From the analysis, it is observed that India needs to encourage FDI, while maintaining strict control over short-term capital, which is highly disruptive, and proceed cautiously towards full KAL. JEL Codes: C32, F21, F32

Reconsidering the Everyday Ambedkar: Notes towards an Alternative Hero Worship

The main concern in the present article is to bring out the heroic portrait and life-world of Dr Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar as witnessed by followers living around/with him from the ‘mundaneness’ of every day. By taking recourse into the autobiographical evidences produced by his followers, the article attempts to investigate how the heroic capital of Ambedkar is continuously (re)produced, (re)imagined and disseminated in the contemporary Dalit life/thought. It is my contention that in the post-independent India, the problematic of hero worship has become an important signpost for floating the questions of representation, identity, self-respect, power and historicity which eventually metamorphoses the upholder/beholder of these qualities (Dr Ambedkar in the present case) to that of a God. In academe, we have models to study such transitions. However, in the present context, the hero worship around Ambedkar is that of an alternative kind, channelized through ‘human concerns and impressions’. Instead of transforming him into a God, the followers here attempt to humanize Dr Ambedkar. The humanization of Ambedkar is extracted by plunging into his household, conjugality, paternal instincts, food, clothes and passion for entertainment, among others, categorized usually within the mundaneness of everyday. The article further attempts to argue that the concerns from everyday offer a contest to bring forth the contested stories; that attempt to (re)interpret as well as (re)count the asymmetry and discrimination of caste dynamics in India’s cultural life and Ambedkar’s subsequent combative response to them. The discussion concludes by formulating that these concerns and anecdotes from everyday also give an alternative twist to the process and context of hero worship itself.

Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India

This study aims to understand the dynamics of credit and business cycle interactions at the aggregated and disaggregated (sectors and industries) levels in the Indian context. We explore both parametric and non-parametric time-series approach to date the major turning points and calculate the lead-lag measures. We also test for synchronizing credit and business cycles and finding that there is a procyclicality during the crisis period. However, the analysis at sectoral and industry levels exhibit asymmetry as some sectors exhibit countercyclically. The business cycle precedes the credit cycle at the aggregated and disaggregated levels. The repo rate, broad money, real exchange rate, and industrial output significantly explain India's business-credit dynamics.

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in India and its states with optimal control.

A pandemic is an epidemic spread over a huge geographical area. COVID-19 is 5hbox {th} such pandemic documented after 1918 flu pandemic. In this work, we frame a mathematical epidemic model taking inspiration from the classic SIR model and develop a compartmental model with ten compartments to study the coronavirus dynamics in India and three of its most affected states, namely, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, with inclusion of factors related to face mask efficacy, contact tracing, and testing along with quarantine and isolation. We fit the developed model and estimate optimum values of disease transmission rate, detection rate of undetected asymptomatic, and the same of undetected symptomatic. A sensitivity analysis is presented stressing on the importance of higher face mask usage, rapid testing, and contact tracing for curbing the disease spread. An optimal control analysis is performed with two control parameters to study the increase and decrease of the infected population with and without control. This study suggests that improved and rapid testing will help in identifying more infectives, thereby contributing in the decline of disease transmission rate. Optimal control analysis results on stressing on the importance of abiding by strict usage of face mask and social distancing for drastic decrease in number of infections. Time series behaviour of the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and hospitalized population is studied for a range of parameters, resulting in thorough understanding of significance of different parameters.