Dynamic Vector Error Correction Model Research Articles

Early human capital: the driving force to economic growth in island economies

PurposeThe paper investigates into the human capital–economic growth nexus by arguing that investment in early education and health helps in achieving higher economic growth. Early investment in human capital matters most for economic growth than the increase in human capital over the years.Design/methodology/approachA dynamic vector error correction model (VECM) together with the impulse response function and variance decomposition are used on data for Mauritius from 1983 to 2019. The paper distinguishes between the short-run and the long-run effects of human capital measured by the pupil–teacher ratio in pre-primary education and life expectancy at birth.FindingsThis study’s findings reveal that investment in early education and health has contributed positively to growth performance. There is evidence for long-run growth effects arising from a positive shock in the education and health indicators.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to both the theoretical and empirical literature on the human capital–growth nexus. Mauritius as a natural resource poor small economy is an important case study as it has started early in investing in its people to promote economic growth.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2021-0674.

Rural credit and agricultural production: Empirical evidence from Brazil

AbstractThis article examines the long‐ and short‐run effects of rural credit on the gross value added of agricultural output in Brazil. We apply the dynamic vector error correction model (VECM) to the estimation and testing. The main finding is that there is a positive long‐run relationship between agricultural sector production and loans from financial institutions to the agricultural sector. The long‐run elasticity estimated was 0.44, implying that an increase of 1% in rural credit leads to a 0.44% increase in the agricultural sector's GDP. This result supports the policy of rural credit as a crucial institutional instrument to strengthen the agricultural sector and as an important factor to boost the country's economic growth.

Assessing the impact of technological progress on trade in COMESA: a PVECM approach

PurposeThe present study investigates the extent to which technological progress influences trade in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) region over the period 1990–2017.Design/methodology/approachMethodologically, this study uses a rigorous dynamic analysis namely a dynamic vector error correction model (PVECM) to carry out the proposed investigation. Such a procedure ensures that the dynamic behaviour under consideration is properly captured, while simultaneously catering for causality issues.FindingsThe results show that technological progress has had a positive and significant effect on trade for the sample of countries in the COMESA region over the years of studies. Also, the long-run results show that local investment and economic growth have a positive impact on international trade. Furthermore, the short-run estimates allowed us to make further analysis of the results. For instance, it is observed that trade as well results in technological progress as per the study. Hence, there is reverse causation or bi-directional causality between trade and technological progress.Originality/valueVery few research studies have been conducted on the link between technological progress and trade in a macroeconomy. The analysis thus is believed to supplement the dwarf literature on the technological progress and trade nexus by bringing additional evidence from COMESA.

Determining the Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Kenya

Aims: This study examines whether the long-run relationship between fiscal and current deficits follows the tenets of twin-deficits, the Ricardian equivalence, the current account targeting, or the feedback linkages. It further reviews the effects of fiscal and current account deficits on economic growth. These have in recent years been debated both in developed and developing countries. In contributing to this ongoing debate, the authors applied unit root tests, cointegration analysis, a dynamic vector error correction model and Toda-Yamamoto Granger-causality representation using annual time series data from 1980 to 2016.
 Study Design: The study employs quantitative time-series research design by utilizing Stata econometrics software.
 Place and Duration of Study: Sample: Kenya, from 1980 to 2016.
 Methodology: The study employs unit root tests, Johansen (1995) co-integration analysis, a dynamic vector error correction model and a multivariate Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Granger-causality representation.
 Results: The paper provides evidence of unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to current account deficit in support of the twin-deficits phenomenon for Kenya. There is evidence that in the long-run fiscal deficits has significant negative effects while current account deficits had significant positive effects, on economic growth in Kenya. 
 Conclusion: Overall, the study concludes that the twin-deficits phenomenon fits for Kenya. The findings imply that the authorities need to pay more attention and promote policies that improve investment efficiency arising from these deficits. Importantly, some of the key policy implications include promotion of policies that upscale fiscal discipline and reduce the size of fiscal deficits for external stability and long-term economic growth, in Kenya.

The Effects of Current Account Deficits on Economic Growth: Evidence from Kenya

The study examines the effects of current account deficits on economic growth. It also evaluates the direction of causality between the current account deficits and economic growth. These have in the recent past been analyzed in developed and developing economies. In contributing to this ongoing debate, the study applied unit root tests, cointegration analysis, a dynamic vector error correction model and Toda-Yamamoto Granger-causality representation using annual time series data for Kenya from 1980 to 2016. There is evidence that in the long run, current account deficit has significant positive effect on economic growth in Kenya. The evidence suggests a bidirectional causality running from current account deficit to economic growth with feedback effects. The study underscores the need for the authorities to utilize current account deficits to strictly finance public investment to foster gross fixed capital formation, for shared prosperity in Kenya. The evidence underscores the need for more country specific studies in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Effects of Primary Budget Deficits on Economic Growth: Evidence from Kenya

Aims: The paper attempts to examine the effects of primary budget deficits on economic growth. It reviews the nature and direction of causality between primary budget deficit and economic growth. In the recent years, these have been debated both in developed and developing countries. In contributing to this ongoing debate, the study analyzes the case for Kenya from 1980 to 2016. The evidence is intended to provide policy insights for macroeconomic stability and sustained economic growth for shared prosperity in Kenya.
 Study Design: The study employs quantitative time-series research design by utilizing Stata econometrics software.
 Place and Duration of Study: Sample: Evidence from Kenya, from 1980 to 2016.
 Methodology: The study employs unit root tests, Johansen cointegration analysis, a dynamic vector error correction model and a multivariate Toda-Yamamoto Granger-causality representation.
 Results: The findings establish that the primary budget deficit, gross fixed capital formation, real interest rate, terms of trade, inflation growth and financial innovation have significant effects on GDP per capita growth in Kenya. Primary budget deficit has a strong and significant effect on GDP per capita growth both in short-run and long run. In the short-run, the results revealed that the primary budget deficit had a positive effect on economic growth which turned negative in the long-run. There was a unidirectional causality running from primary budget deficit to economic growth. 
 Conclusion: The study concludes that both in the short run and long run, primary budget deficit has strong and significant causal effects on economic growth in Kenya. The evidence underscores the need for the authorities to reduce high primary budget deficits, interest payments and domestic borrowings and strictly apply the golden rule of public finances to boost long term inclusive growth, in Kenya.

Analysing the impact of tourism foreign direct investment on economic growth

The present study attempts to address the important question of whether foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into the tourism sector has served to enhance economic growth in Mauritius for the period 1984–2014. Using a dynamic vector error correction model, and catering for dynamism, the results show that tourism FDI has indeed contributed to fostering economic growth; albeit the magnitude of the coefficient being relatively smaller than FDI in the non-tourism sector. A plausible explanation for such a finding may reside in the fact that the bulk of FDI flows in the non-tourism sectors while domestic investment predominates in the tourism sector in Mauritius. The findings also demonstrate a positive relationship between tourism development and economic growth, thus supporting the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

Tourism and Employment Spillovers in a Small Island Developing State: A Dynamic Investigation

Using a dynamic vector error correction model, and catering for dynamism and endogeneity, the present study attempts to address the question on whether tourism development enhances employment in Mauritius using time series data for the period 1988-2014. The results show that indeed tourism expansion has contributed towards boosting direct, indirect and induced employment in both the long run and short run. The findings also demonstrate that investment in the tourism sector positively influences the employment variable. Moreover, a uni-directional causality is found in the investigation running from tourism development to employment creation as a result of the expansion of the tourism sector.

Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from Mauritius

In the recent past, with the phenomenal growth of equity markets, a burgeoning number of policy makers and researchers began to query about the possible impact that equity market development might have on economic growth. Indeed, an overwhelming number of studies have been carried out worldwide to investigate the links which might exist between stock market development and economic growth. As a result, this has strengthened the view that stock markets around the world play a key role in fueling a powerful and resilient economy. However, most of these studies have focused solely on developed countries and not on developing countries or small island developing economies like Mauritius. As such, since studies analyzing this link in the African region are rather scant, this paper endeavors to scrutinize the relationship between equity market development and economic growth in Mauritius. To this end, this paper analyzes the relationship between stock market development, banking development and economic growth in a unified framework using semi-annual data for the period 1988-2011, through a dynamic Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The VECM is used extensively to determine the link between stock market development and economic growth while simultaneously allowing identification of any bi-directional and/or uni-directional causality between the variables of interest. Moreover, this model divulges both the direct and the indirect impacts, if any, which stock market development might have on economic growth. Possible determinants of stock market development and the effect of stock market development on the control variables are also analyzed through the VECM. The results suggest that stock market development does play an important role in generating gains in terms of economic growth in the long run in the island. In the short run however, stock market development fails to significantly boost economic growth in Mauritius. Moreover, stock market development is also seen to indirectly stimulate economic growth in the short run, through banking development. Interestingly, banking development is seen to have a positive impact on economic growth, both in the short run and in the long run. This indicates that banking development and stock market development both complement each other. As such, it is believed that further steps have to be taken to promote stock market development in the island, with the aim of boosting both the economy and the banking sector in the long run.

Productivity Spillovers of FDI in the Manufacturing Sector of Mauritius. Evidence from A Dynamic Framework

Using a dynamic vector error correction model, catering for dynamic, endogeneity and causality issues, the present study addresses the important question of whether foreign direct investment in the manufacturing sector enhances the productivity of the sector in Mauritius using time series data for the period 1980-2010. The results show that FDI in the manufacturing sector has indeed contributed to both total factor productivity and labour productivity in the long run. Analysing the short run results, we found that FDI in the manufacturing sector continues to influence productivity but the impact is very small. This result was mainly explained by the massive relocation of foreign firms from Mauritius to cheap labour destinations. Also, the results confirm the presence of bi-causality and feedback effects in the FDI-Productivity relationship. Moreover, it also shows that FDI is positively related to the level of domestic investment suggesting the presence of “crowding in” effect as well.

EVALUATING THE PREDICTIVENESS AND PROFITABILITY OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FORECASTING MODELS

This paper evaluates the performance of two competing currency models as a forecasting and trading tool in fund management. A dynamic vector error correction model is utilized to construct a currency forecasting and fair value forecasting model for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. Emphasis is placed on robustness testing model performance by changing its specification and how both models perform across different time periods. Based on the accuracy of the forecasts the fair value model outperforms the currency forecasting model; a finding that is not supported using directional forecasts. This is robust to changes in model specification and across different time spans that cover pre-and current financial crisis periods. It is also discovered that the evaluation criteria used and prevailing market conditions determines whether model performance translates into value added in a currency fund.

THE LONG‐RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENCE EXPENDITURES AND GDP IN TAIWAN

Using the Solow–Swan growth model and the time‐trend included in the aggregate production function, this study applies the multivariate cointegration approach to re‐investigate the long‐run and causal relationships between defence expenditures and GDP while controlling for capital and labour input in Taiwan during the 1955–2002 period. It examines the long‐run causal relationship using the weak exogeneity test and utilizes general impulse response functions to determine whether a shock to defence expenditures affects economic growth or vice versa. Our findings provide substantive evidence in favour of the existence of a long‐run equilibrium cointegrated relationship between defence expenditures, GDP, labour and capital stock. The results of the weak exogeneity test indicate that a bi‐directional causal relationship exists in the long‐run between defence expenditures and GDP. Thus, the main policy implication that emerges from the long‐run results is that increasing defence expenditures in Taiwan is an effective means to boost overall economic performance and, with this improved economy, it should then be able to increase its defence expenditures further. Lastly, from our dynamic vector error correction model estimations, it is found that defence expenditures are a major means of adjusting for disequilibria that occur within the system.

Forecast evaluations in meat demand analysis

AbstractThis article offers a comparison of short‐term forecasting ability of five demand systems with an application to U.S. meat consumption. Four static demand systems (AIDS, Rotterdam, AIM, and DGM) and a dynamic Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are considered. We tested the equality of mean square forecast errors. We also investigated the possibility of forecast encompassing among competing models. In general, the dynamic VECM model performed best, followed by the simple causal DGM model. Among three static systems, the AIDS model slightly leads the competition. Furthermore, this article provides the first evidence in literature on whether imposition of homogeneity restrictions on a cointegration space can improve the forecast accuracy of a VECM model: it does when it holds. [EconLit citations: Q10; C53]. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 19: 505–523, 2003.

A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs

Unlike previous studies on the casual relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration(i.e. long-term equilibrium relationship) between these variables, may be used in testing Granger causality. Based on the most recent Johansen's multiple cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or nonstationarity tests, we test for cointegration between total energy consumption, real income and price level of two Asian LDCs: Thailand and Sri Lanka. Nonrejection of cointegration between variables rules out Granger noncausality and implies at least one way of Granger-causality either unidirectional or bidirectional. Secondly, by using a dynamic vector error-correction model, we then analyse the direction of Granger-causation and hence the within-sample Grangerexogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables. Thirdly, the relative strength of the causality is gauged (through the dynamic variance decomposition technique) by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period, into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own, in the multivariate system. Finally, these response paths of shocks to the system are traced out using impulse response graphs. Results based on these four tools of methodology, broadly indicate that all three variables are cointegrated and exhibit two common trends within each system. Energy consumption seems to be relatively exogenous as neither income nor prices seems to Granger cause this variable via any of the channels where potential casuality may occur. Though, energy consumption itself plays an important role in influencing income and prices by varying degrees of significance for each country. Overall, shocks to the system seemed to have had a more sustained if not pronounced effect in Thailand than in Sri Lanka.

On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: Some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs Based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction approach

Departing from previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration (i.e., long-term equilibrium relationship) between these variables, may be used in testing Granger causality. Based on the most recent Johansen's multiple cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or nonstationarity tests, we test for cointegration between total energy consumption, real income, and price level of two highly energy dependent East-Asian NICs: Korea and Taiwan. Nonrejection of cointegration between variables rules out Granger noncausality and implies at least one way of Granger causality, either unidirectional or bidirectional. Secondly, by using a dynamic vector error-correction model, we then analyze the direction of Granger causation and hence the within-sample Granger exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables. Thirdly, the relative strength of the causality is gauged (through the dynamic variance decomposition technique) by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period, into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables, including its own, in the multivariate system. Finally, these response paths of shocks to the system are traced out using impulse response graphs. Results based on these four dynamic tools of analysis broadly indicate that all three variables are cointegrated and mutually causal. The Granger-causal chain implied by our evidence tends to suggest that although all these variables are endogenous (i.e., they all share the brunt of adjustment to reestablish the long-term equilibrium), relatively in these two highly energy-dependent economies, in line with expectations, it is the rate of price change that leads to the change in energy consumption, which then leads on to the change in economic growth. Overall, shocks to the system seemed to have had a more sustained if not pronounced effect in Korea than in Taiwan.

Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques

Unlike previous studies on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, this paper illustrates how the finding of cointegration (i.e. long-term equilibrium relationship) between these variables, may be used in testing Granger causality. Based on the most recent Johansen's multivariate cointegration tests preceded by various unit root or non-stationarity tests, we test for cointegration between total energy consumption and real income of six Asian economies: India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. Non-rejection of cointegration between variables rules out Granger non-causality and imples at least one way of Granger-causality, either unidirectional or bidirectionial. Secondly, by using a dynamic vector error-correction model, we then analyse the direction of Granger-causation and hence the within-sample Granger-exogeneity or endogeneity of each of the variables. Thirdly, the relative strength of the causality is gauged (through the dynamic variance decomposition technique) by decomposing the total impact of an unanticipated shock to each of the variables beyond the sample period, into proportions attributable to shocks in the other variables including its own, in the bivariate system. Results based on these tools of methodology indicate that while all pair-wise relationships shared common univariate integrational properties, only relationships for three countries (India, Pakistan and Indonesia) were cointegrated. For these countries, temporal causality results were mixed with unidirectional causality from energy to income for India, exactly the reverse for Indonesia, and mutual causality for Pakistan. The VDCs were not inconsistent with these results and provided us with an additional insight as to the relatively more dominant direction of causation in Pakistan. Simple bivariate vector-autoregressive models for the three non-cointegrated systems did not indicate any direction of causality, significantly in either direction.