Dynamic Risk Stratification Research Articles

A COVID-19 Risk Assessment Decision Support System for General Practitioners: Design and Development Study.

BackgroundThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become an urgent and serious global public health crisis. Community engagement is the first line of defense in the fight against infectious diseases, and general practitioners (GPs) play an important role in it. GPs are facing unique challenges from disasters and pandemics in delivering health care. However, there is still no suitable mobile management system that can help GPs collect data, dynamically assess risks, and effectively triage or follow-up with patients with COVID-19.ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to design, develop, and deploy a mobile-based decision support system for COVID-19 (DDC19) to assist GPs in collecting data, assessing risk, triaging, managing, and following up with patients during the COVID-19 outbreak.MethodsBased on the actual scenarios and the process of patients using health care, we analyzed the key issues that need to be solved and designed the main business flowchart of DDC19. We then constructed a COVID-19 dynamic risk stratification model with high recall and clinical interpretability, which was based on a multiclass logistic regression algorithm. Finally, through a 10-fold cross-validation to quantitatively evaluate the risk stratification ability of the model, a total of 2243 clinical data consisting of 36 dimension clinical features from fever clinics were used for training and evaluation of the model.ResultsDDC19 is composed of three parts: mobile terminal apps for the patient-end and GP-end, and the database system. All mobile terminal devices were wirelessly connected to the back end data center to implement request sending and data transmission. We used low risk, moderate risk, and high risk as labels, and adopted a 10-fold cross-validation method to evaluate and test the COVID-19 dynamic risk stratification model in different scenarios (different dimensions of personal clinical data accessible at an earlier stage). The data set dimensions were (2243, 15) when only using the data of patients’ demographic information, clinical symptoms, and contact history; (2243, 35) when the results of blood tests were added; and (2243, 36) after obtaining the computed tomography imaging results of the patient. The average value of the three classification results of the macro–area under the curve were all above 0.71 in each scenario.ConclusionsDCC19 is a mobile decision support system designed and developed to assist GPs in providing dynamic risk assessments for patients with suspected COVID-19 during the outbreak, and the model had a good ability to predict risk levels in any scenario it covered.

Ultrasonography surveillance in papillary thyroid carcinoma patients after total thyroidectomy according to dynamic risk stratification.

To investigate the role of neck US surveillance in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) after total thyroidectomy according to dynamic risk stratification (DRS) based on response to initial therapy. This retrospective study included 812 patients with PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy with prophylactic central neck dissection from January 2003 through February 2007. The relative risk of recurrence/persistence according to DRS was evaluated with the multivariable Cox regression proportional hazard model. There were 132 men and 680 women. The mean age at surgery was 45.2 years. Postoperative US was used for DRS. According to DRS, 676 patients had excellent response, 78 indeterminate response, 40 biochemical incomplete response, and 18 structural incomplete response to initial therapy. Neck US was performed during follow-up and detected locoregional recurrences in 21 patients (2.6%): 12 with excellent response, 2 with biochemical incomplete response, and 7 with structural incomplete response according to DRS. Only 1 patient (0.1%) with excellent response had a locoregional recurrence that exceeded 8 mm in its shortest diameter, which is the size cut-off for diagnostic US fine-needle aspiration in suspicious lymph nodes. This patient did not develop biochemical abnormalities during follow-up. Postoperative neck US surveillance after total thyroidectomy with prophylactic central neck dissection is not essential in PTC patients who show excellent response to initial therapy. Future studies are needed to verify the role of US surveillance in patients who receive variable degrees of treatments.

Surgical management of papillary thyroid cancer: review of current evidence and consensus

The optimal surgical management of papillary thyroid carcinoma has been an ongoing debate. Most recommendations in clinical practice guidelines are based on large retrospective studies and expert opinion. The objective of the article is to summarize the recent evidence and main arguments related to the surgical management of papillary thyroid carcinoma. A definitive correlation between loco-regional recurrence and long-term survival and the extent of thyroid resection or lymph node dissection have not been established through randomized controlled clinical trials. Due to the low rates of recurrence and mortality associated with papillary thyroid cancer, large scale prospective randomized controlled trials that will help identify the optimal surgical management are unlikely to be available in the future as well. According to current consensus, hemithyroidectomy is sufficient for low-risk disease whereas total thyroidectomy should be performed in those with high-risk features. The place of therapeutic and prophylactic central compartment and lateral neck dissection is discussed based on evidence on short-term and long term outcomes. Furthermore, post-operative staging and dynamic risk stratification are important in determining adjuvant therapy and a follow-up plan.

Heat Adaptation in Military Personnel: Mitigating Risk, Maximizing Performance.

The study of heat adaptation in military personnel offers generalizable insights into a variety of sporting, recreational and occupational populations. Conversely, certain characteristics of military employment have few parallels in civilian life, such as the imperative to achieve mission objectives during deployed operations, the opportunity to undergo training and selection for elite units or the requirement to fulfill essential duties under prolonged thermal stress. In such settings, achieving peak individual performance can be critical to organizational success. Short-notice deployment to a hot operational or training environment, exposure to high intensity exercise and undertaking ceremonial duties during extreme weather may challenge the ability to protect personnel from excessive thermal strain, especially where heat adaptation is incomplete. Graded and progressive acclimatization can reduce morbidity substantially and impact on mortality rates, yet individual variation in adaptation has the potential to undermine empirical approaches. Incapacity under heat stress can present the military with medical, occupational and logistic challenges requiring dynamic risk stratification during initial and subsequent heat stress. Using data from large studies of military personnel observing traditional and more contemporary acclimatization practices, this review article (1) characterizes the physical challenges that military training and deployed operations present (2) considers how heat adaptation has been used to augment military performance under thermal stress and (3) identifies potential solutions to optimize the risk-performance paradigm, including those with broader relevance to other populations exposed to heat stress.

The clinical meaning of pre- and post-ablation thyroglobulin levels at first radioiodine therapy in patients with papillary thyroid cancer.

Background/AimsThis study was conducted to identify prognostic factors in patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) at the time of first radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy, and to evaluate the clinical value of the thyroglobulin (Tg) increase after RAI.MethodsSerum Tg was sampled prior to (pre-Tg) and 7 days after RAI (post-Tg) in 680 patients with PTC. Patients were classified into excellent response (ER), biochemical incomplete response (BCIR), structural incomplete response (SIR), and indeterminate response (IR) groups using dynamic risk stratification at 6 to 18 months after RAI therapy.ResultsAfter RAI therapy, 514 patients (75.6%) had an ER, 34 (5.0%) had a BCIR, 13 (2.0%) had an SIR, and 119 (17.5%) had an IR. Pre-Tg level was significantly different among the groups, with the highest level being in the SIR group, followed by the BCIR, IR, and ER groups. However, post-Tg levels were not different among the groups. Post-Tg level increased significantly after RAI therapy compared to the pre-Tg level (mean 13.8 ± 32.2 ng/mL vs. 2.5 ± 8.9 ng/mL). In 422 patients whose pre-Tg level was < 1 ng/mL, 205 had post-Tg levels < 1 ng/mL, while 167 had post-Tg levels of 1 to 10 ng/mL, and 50 had levels > 10 ng/mL. No difference was observed in the response to therapy. Differences in RAI dose and uptake pattern were observed among the three groups.ConclusionsPre-Tg was useful as a prognostic factor in patients with PTC. In patients with low pre-Tg, increased post-Tg may reflect remnant tissue and does not help predict the prognosis.

Evaluating the 2015 American Thyroid Association Risk Stratification System in High-Risk Papillary and Follicular Thyroid Cancer Patients.

Background: The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) Risk Stratification System for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is designed to predict recurring/persisting disease but not survival. Earlier studies evaluating this system evaluated the 2009 edition, comprised a low number of patients with ATA high-risk, had low numbers of patients with follicular thyroid cancer (FTC), or did not distinguish between papillary and FTC. Therefore, we evaluated the prognostic value of the 2015 ATA Risk Stratification System in a large population of high-risk thyroid cancer patients, which included a substantial proportion of FTC patients. Methods: We retrospectively studied adult patients with DTC who were diagnosed and/or treated at a Dutch university hospital between January 2002 and December 2015. All patients fulfilled the 2015 ATA high-risk criteria. Overall survival and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the effects of DTC subtype and ATA high-risk criteria on response to therapy, recurrence, as well as survival. Results: We included 236 patients with high-risk DTC (32% FTC) with a mean age of 56 years. Median follow-up was 6 years. At final follow-up, 69 patients (29%) had excellent response, while 120 (51%) had structural disease. All high-risk criteria, except large pathologic lymph nodes, were inversely related to excellent response and positively related to structural disease at final follow-up. During follow-up, 14% of the 79 patients who achieved excellent response developed a recurrence. Finally, 10-year DSS was much higher in the initial excellent response than in the initial structural disease group (100% vs. 61%, respectively). Conclusions: In a population of high-risk DTC patients harboring a large subset of FTC patients, the 2015 ATA Risk Stratification System is not only an excellent predictor of persisting disease but also of survival. As much as 14% of the high-risk patients who had an excellent response upon dynamic risk stratification experienced a recurrence during follow-up. Clinicians should thus be aware of the relatively high recurrence risk in these patients, even after an excellent response to therapy.

How Do Tumor Cytogenetics Inform Cancer Treatments? Dynamic Risk Stratification and Precision Medicine Using Multi-armed Bandits

Multiple myeloma is an incurable cancer of bone marrow plasma cells with a median overall survival of 5 years. With newly approved drugs to treat this disease over the last decade, physicians are afforded more opportunities to tailor treatment to individual patients and thereby improve survival outcomes and quality of life. However, since the optimal sequence of therapy is unknown, selecting a treatment that will result in the most effective outcome for each individual patient is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge, considering the problem of designing personalized treatment recommendations for patients with multiple myeloma using a data-driven analytics method. We formulate the treatment recommendation problem as a Bayesian contextual bandit, which sequentially selects treatments based on contextual information about patients and therapies, with the goal of maximizing overall survival outcomes. We developed a multilevel Bayesian linear Thompson sampling to learn patients’ heterogeneous response on treatment decisions, which allows us to flexibly account for patient and line-of-therapy level heterogeneity even in the absence of a large number of observations. Facing the difficulty of evaluating the performance of the policy with only observational data, we propose a causal offline evaluation approach to measure the effect of the treatment in the presence of unmeasured confounders. We evaluate the performance of our policy on clinical data collected from 803 patients treated at Seattle Cancer Care Alliance. Our policy achieved an 19.75\% predicted improvement compared to the current clinical practice, and outperforms other benchmark strategies. Moreover, our policy achieves higher improvement for aging or high-risk patients with more complications by keeping the disease controlled at a relatively stable condition.

Lobectomy in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer: indications and follow-up.

The extent of thyroid surgery for patients with low- and intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), with a primary tumour <4 cm and no extrathyroidal extension (ETE) or lymph node (LN) metastases, has shifted in a more conservative direction. However, clinicopathological risk factors, including microscopic ETE, aggressive histology, vascular invasion in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and intermediate volume of LN metastases, can only be identified after completing thyroid lobectomy. It is controversial whether patients with these risk factors should immediately undergo complete thyroidectomy and/or radioactive iodine remnant ablation or should be monitored without further treatments. Data are conflicting about the prognostic impact of these risk factors on clinical DTC outcomes. Notably, the recurrence rate in patients who underwent thyroid lobectomy is low and the few recurrences that develop during long-term follow-up can readily be detected by neck ultrasonography and treated by salvage surgery with no impact on survival. These findings suggest that a more conservative approach may be a preferred management strategy over immediate completion surgery, despite a slightly higher risk of structural recurrence. Regarding follow-up of post-lobectomy DTC patients, it is reasonable that an initial risk stratification system based on clinicohistological findings be used to guide the short-term follow-up prior to evaluating the response to initial therapy and that the dynamic risk stratification system based on the response to initial therapy be used to guide long-term follow-up.

Management and dynamic risk stratification of differentiated thyroid cancer

Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the most frequently diagnosed thyroid cancer. With the development of the imaging technology and fine needle aspiration, early diagnosis rate of DTC is increasing. Most patients have favorable prognosis for DTC's low-invasion. TNM staging is more widely used for predicting mortality than predicting recurrence. In 2008, it was suggested that recurrence risks for DTC should be assessed based on the results of dynamic monitoring treatment response. The validity of dynamic risk stratification (DRS) has been supported by different researches in various countries and DRS is recommended in 2015 American Thyroid Association Management Guidelines. Long-term DRS in patients with DTC make individual management possible.

Shifting paradigms in the management of pediatric differentiated thyroid cancer from static to dynamic risk stratification: a step forward toward precision medicine.

This study aimed to assess the usefulness of a risk-adopted management system known as dynamic risk stratification (DRS) in comparison with the American (ATA) and European Thyroid Associations' (ETA) risk classifications in the management of pediatric patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). The current study included 50 pediatric patients with DTC who were treated with total or near total thyroidectomy and radioiodine ablation whose risk assessment was initially defined according to the ATA and ETA guidelines. During the two years after initial treatment, patients were reclassified according to their DRS. The study showed that the ability of the DRS system to predict the final outcome was superior to that of the ATA and ETA guidelines. The observed variance in predicting final outcome was 2.3 % for ETA, 14.8 % for ATA, and 83.4 % for DRS. In intermediate/high-risk patients, according to the ATA/ETA guidelines, an excellent response to initial therapy resulted in a noteworthy reduction (about 40 %) for detection of structural disease at the time of final follow-up. The risk of structural disease at the time of final follow-up was significantly higher in the structural incomplete response group (HR = 23.34, P = 0.00) and biochemical incomplete response group (HR = 13.83, P = 0.03) than in the excellent response group. The data documented the significance of re-stratifying pediatric patients with DTC on the basis of the findings obtained at the time of or after their initial therapy (total thyroidectomy and radioiodine ablation), predominantly in the intermediate/high-risk patients. In addition, DRS helped to better modulate the later follow-up, excluding a large number of intermediate/high risk patients from needless intensive workups, allowing personalization of follow-up management.

European Perspective on 2015 American Thyroid Association Management Guidelines for Adult Patients with Thyroid Nodules and Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: Proceedings of an Interactive International Symposium.

The American Thyroid Association (ATA) management guidelines for patients with thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) are highly influential practice recommendations. The latest revision appeared in 2015 ("ATA 2015"). These guidelines were developed predominantly by North American experts. European experts frequently have different perspectives, given epidemiological, technological/methodological, practice organization, and medicolegal differences between the respective regions. Divergent viewpoints were the focus of an invited symposium organized by the European Association of Nuclear Medicine involving 17 European thyroidologists, four ATA Guidelines Taskforce members, and an audience of 200 international experts. The group discussed the preoperative assessment of thyroid nodules, surgery and the role of pathology, radioiodine (RAI) therapy (RAIT), the assessment of initial therapy and dynamic risk stratification, and the treatment of persistent disease, recurrences, and advanced thyroid cancer. The dialogue resulted in this position paper contrasting European and ATA 2015 perspectives on key issues. One difference pertains to the permissiveness of ATA 2015 regarding lobectomy for primary tumors ≤4 cm. European panelists cited preclusion of RAIT, potential need for completion thyroidectomy, frequent inability to avoid chronic thyroid hormone replacement, and limitations of supportive evidence as arguments against widely applying lobectomy. Significant divergence involved ATA 2015's guidance regarding RAIT. European panelists favored wider use of postoperative RAIT than does ATA 2015. Rationales included the modality's association with favorable patient outcomes and generally limited toxicity, and lack of high-quality evidence supporting withholding RAIT. Additionally, European panelists favored recombinant human thyrotropin (rhTSH) in more settings than does ATA 2015, citing avoidance of hypothyroid morbidity and quality-of-life impairment, without apparent sacrifice in oncologic outcomes. Based on clinical evidence plus theoretical advantages, European experts advocated dosimetric versus fixed-activity RAIT approaches for advanced DTC. European panelists noted that the ATA 2015 risk-stratification system requires information sometimes unavailable in everyday practice. ATA 2015 recommendations regarding RAI-refractory DTC should consider potential palliative benefits of RAIT in patients who also have RAI-susceptible lesions. European panelists suggested modifications to approximately one-third of ATA 2015 recommendations. Varying European and ATA 2015 perspectives can stimulate analysis and discussion of the literature and performance of primary research to resolve discrepant recommendations and potentially improve patient outcomes.

Individualized Follow-Up Strategy for Patients with an Indeterminate Response to Initial Therapy for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

The concept of a dynamic risk-stratification scheme has been suggested for individualized management of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, there is no specified follow-up strategy for patients with an indeterminate response. This study evaluated 403 PTC patients who had an indeterminate response during the first 12-24 months after initial therapy. All patients underwent total thyroidectomy with radioactive iodine remnant ablation. Patients were further classified into three groups based on risk of structural persistence/recurrence: a Tg+ group (detectable thyroglobulin [Tg], regardless of antithyroglobulin antibody [TgAb] or imaging findings; 196 patients), a TgAb+ group (positive results for TgAb with undetectable Tg, regardless of imaging findings; 46 patients), and an Image+ group (nonspecific findings on neck ultrasonography or faint uptake in the thyroid bed on whole-body scan, with undetectable Tg and negative results for TgAb; 161 patients). With a median of 9.6 years (interquartile range 7.7-11.2 years) of follow-up, 56 (14%) PTC patients had structural persistent/recurrent disease: 50 (89%) at locoregional sites and six (11%) at distant sites. The recurrence rate in Tg+, TgAb+, and Image + groups were 26.5%, 8.7%, and 0%, respectively. The median time to detection of structural persistent/recurrent disease from the initial thyroid surgery was 3.7 years (interquartile range 2.5-6.3 years). The optimal cutoff stimulated Tg level to predict structural persistent/recurrent disease was 3.1 ng/mL in the Tg+ group. This classification system revealed higher predictability of structural persistent/recurrent disease than the tumor-node-metastasis staging system and American Thyroid Association risk stratification (proportion of variation explained: 15.7% vs. 2.4% and 0.9%, respectively). Six (3%) patients with distant metastatic disease were all classified in the Tg+ group, and all had lung metastasis. The findings suggest a more individualized follow-up strategy for patients with an indeterminate response. More careful evaluation, including early evaluation of distant metastasis, is necessary in patients with elevated Tg levels. However, for patients testing positive for TgAb or those with only nonspecific imaging findings, regular follow-ups of Tg and TgAb levels and neck ultrasonography are sufficient.

Dynamic Risk Stratification: Intraoperative Decision-Making in Treatment of Thyroid Cancer

Abstract Introduction: Surgery, the primary treatment for thyroid cancer,1 involves a constant real-time assessment and active process. Intraoperative decision whether the patient has high-risk fea...

Dynamic Risk Stratification in the Follow-Up of Children and Adolescents with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer.

Risk stratification for persistent disease is an important step in pediatric differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) management. The dynamic risk stratification (DRS) is a well validated system for adults, but not yet for children and adolescents. This study evaluated the DRS as well as other prognostic factors in pediatric DTC. Patients aged ≤18 years from four DTC tertiary teaching hospitals in Southern Brazil were included. Clinical characteristics were systematically retrieved, and all patients were classified according to the risk-stratification system of the 2015 American Thyroid Association pediatric DTC guidelines (ATA risk) and according to DRS (excellent, indeterminate, biochemical, or structural incomplete responses). Disease status was evaluated after initial therapy and at last follow-up visit. Sixty-six patients aged 14.5 ± 3.0 years were studied of whom 54 (81.8%) were girls and 62 (93.9%) had papillary thyroid carcinomas. Tumor size was 2.3 cm (P25-75 1.6-3.5); 41 (63.1%) had cervical and 18 (27.7%) distant metastasis at diagnosis. All patients underwent total thyroidectomy, and 63 (95.5%) received radioiodine. Patients were classified according to DRS after initial therapy (n = 63) as follows: 21 (33%) excellent, 13 (21%) indeterminate, 6 (9%) biochemical, and 23 (37%) structural incomplete responses. Notably, after six years (P25-75 2.7-10.0), most patients remained in the same category. Interestingly, the cutoff analysis of stimulated postoperative thyroglobulin (sPOTg) through receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the value of 37.8 ng/mL showed 81% sensitivity and 100% specificity to predict an excellent response. Prognostic factors associated with persistent disease in the univariate analysis were TNM, ATA risk, DRS, and sPOTg. DRS after initial therapy and sPOTg are strong predictors of disease outcome and might be helpful for defining follow-up strategies in pediatric DTC.

Comparison of short-term oncologic outcome of robotic thyroid surgery using dynamic risk stratification: A propensity score–matched comparison study

The long-term oncologic outcome of robotic surgery for thyroid cancer is not well established. The aim of this study was to predict the long-term oncologic outcome of robotic surgery by using dynamic risk stratification in classic papillary thyroid carcinoma. A total of 444 propensity score-matched pairs of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma treated with robotic surgery and conventional open surgery were classified into 4 response-to-therapy categories. The results were compared between the robotic surgery and open surgery groups. The median follow-up duration was 60 months. After propensity score matching, the robotic surgery group showed less extensive thyroid surgery and lymph node dissection and a higher proportion of patients who underwent radioactive iodine remnant ablation than the open surgery group; however, the dynamic risk stratification did not differ between the 2 groups (P = .086). The long-term oncologic outcome of robotic surgery is expected to be comparable with that of open surgery based on the dynamic risk stratification.

Dynamic risk stratification in papillary thyroid carcinoma measuring 1 to 4 cm.

This study aimed to validate the dynamic risk stratification (DRS) system, evaluate its correlation with structural recurrence, and assess the clinicopathological risk factors associated with a nonexcellent response to initial therapy in patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) measuring 1 to 4 cm. A total of 762 patients with classic PTC measuring 1 to 4 cm were classified into four categories based on their response to initial therapy 2 years postoperatively. Structural recurrent disease occurred in 4.7%, 17.1%, 48.4%, and 83.9% of patients with excellent, indeterminate, biochemically incomplete, and structurally incomplete responses, respectively, at the time of the last follow-up. The response to initial therapy in the DRS was one of the independent risk factors for structural recurrence. The disease-free survival curves of patients with different responses showed significant differences (P < 0.001). Extensive extrathyroidal extension, lymph node (LN) metastasis, number of metastatic LNs greater than 2.0, metastatic LN ratio greater than 0.22, and extranodal extension were independent risk factors for nonexcellent response to initial therapy. DRS can be a useful tool in predicting structural recurrence and guiding postoperative management and follow-up strategies in patients with PTC measuring 1 to 4 cm.

Dynamic risk stratification using serial measurements of plasma concentrations of natriuretic peptides in patients with heart failure

BackgroundPrognostic models for patients with chronic heart failure are generally based on a single assessment but treatment is often given with the intention of changing risk; re- evaluation of risk is an important aspect of care. The prognostic value of serial measurements of natriuretic peptides for the assessment of changes in risk is uncertain. AimsTo evaluate the prognostic value of serial measurements of plasma amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) during follow-up of out-patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). MethodsPatients diagnosed with CHF between 2001 and 2014 at a single out-patient clinic serving a local community were included in this analysis. NT-proBNP was measured at the initial visit and serially during follow-up. Only patients who had one or more measurements of NT-proBNP after baseline, at 4, 12 and/or 24 months were included. ResultsAt baseline, amongst 1998 patients enrolled, the median age was 73 (IQR: 64–79) years, 70% were men, 31% were in NYHA class III/IV, and 77% had NT-proBNP >400 pg/mL. Median follow-up was 4.8 (IQR: 2.5–8.6) years. Serial measurements of NT-proBNP improved prediction of all-cause mortality at 3 years (c- statistic = 0.71) compared with using baseline data only (c-statistic = 0.67; p < 0.001) but a model using only the most recent NT-proBNP had an even higher c-statistic (0.72; p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained based on long-term prediction of mortality using all available follow-up data. ConclusionsSerial measurement of NT-proBNP in patients with CHF improves prediction of all-cause mortality. However, using the most recent value of NT-proBNP has similar predictive power as using serial measurements.

Do aggressive variants of papillary thyroid carcinoma have worse clinical outcome than classic papillary thyroid carcinoma?

Evidence for unfavorable outcomes of each type of aggressive variant papillary thyroid carcinoma (AV-PTC) is not clear because most previous studies are focused on tall cell variant (TCV) and did not control for other major confounding factors contributing to clinical outcomes. Retrospective cohort study. This study included 763 patients with classical PTC (cPTC) and 144 with AV-PTC, including TCV, columnar cell variant (CCV) and hobnail variants. Disease-free survival (DFS) and dynamic risk stratification (DRS) were compared after two-to-one propensity score matching by age, sex, tumor size, lymph node metastasis and extrathyroidal extension. The AV-PTC group had significantly lower DFS rates than its matched cPTC group (HR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.12-4.16, P = 0.018). When TCV and CCV were evaluated separately, there was no significant differences in DFS and DRS between patients with TCV (n = 121) and matched cPTC. However, CCV group (n = 18) had significantly poorer DFS than matched cPTC group (HR = 12.19, 95% CI: 2.11-70.33, P = 0.005). In DRS, there were significantly more patients with structural incomplete responses in CCV group compared by matched cPTC group (P = 0.047). CCV was an independent risk factor for structural persistent/recurrent disease in multivariate analysis (HR = 4.28; 95% CI: 1.66-11.00, P = 0.001). When other clinicopathological factors were similar, patients with TCV did not exhibit unfavorable clinical outcome, whereas those with CCV had significantly poorer clinical outcome. Individualized therapeutic approach might be necessary for each type of AV-PTCs.

Dynamic risk stratification system in post-lobectomy low-risk and intermediate-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma patients.

The dynamic risk stratification (DRS) and its current definition of each response-to-therapy category in post-lobectomy papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients have not been well studied. This study aimed to validate the DRS system and to investigate useful thyroglobulin (Tg) or anti-Tg antibody (Ab)-related parameters in defining each response-to-therapy category. Retrospective observational study. This historical cohort study included 619 patients with PTC treated by thyroid lobectomy. All enrolled participants were stratified according to the American Thyroid Association (ATA) initial risk stratification system and DRS system, respectively. The association between these stratifications and structural recurrence was evaluated. The median follow-up period was 103months. Structural recurrence occurred in 1.6% of the patients with excellent response, 3.8% of those with indeterminate response, 2.9% of those with biochemical incomplete response, and all patients with structural incomplete response. Five (1.5%) of the low-risk patients and 14 (5.0%) of the intermediate-risk patients had structural recurrence. The disease-free survival curves showed significant differences according to the DRS (P<.001) and ATA initial risk stratification (P=.012), respectively. The proportion of variance explained the DRS system and ATA risk stratification system for structural recurrence was 32.4% and 29.4%, respectively. A thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level >2.75μU/mL at 1year after the initial operation (P<.001) was the only valuable risk factor for structural recurrence identified in this study. The long-term postoperative management of PTC patients treated with thyroid lobectomy could be guided based on the DRS.

Dynamic risk stratification in the follow-up of children and adolescents with differentiated thyroid cancer

Dynamic risk stratification in the follow-up of children and adolescents with differentiated thyroid cancer