Dynamic Prediction Model Research Articles

Assessment of two approaches for very short range precipitation prediction for a convection-dominant period at different scales

Extreme precipitation plays a crucial role in managing weather-related risks, particularly flooding, and has a significant impact on various sectors such as hydrology, agriculture, and economy. It is important to evaluate precipitation forecast outputs to help refining prediction models, especially for heavy events. This study examines the performance of two weather models, both designed to provide frequently updated forecasts for a short time range, but using different approaches: extrapolation-based and fully dynamical 3D numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These models are assessed over a two-month period with several heavy thunderstorms, using data from Austria and a smaller catchment in southeast Austria. We addressed the errors and uncertainties in these models using different verification metrics and two different observational datasets. In general, both models performed well in the first hour of the forecast at both large and small scales. However, performance decreased with lead time after the first hour, with a faster decline in the extrapolation-based model. The performance of the models changed when considering different precipitation thresholds. For higher thresholds (heavier precipitation), the NWP model performed better than the extrapolation-based model, whereas it performed worse for lower thresholds. When using the object-oriented Structure Amplitude Location (SAL) metric, the dynamical NWP model performed better regarding the structure of precipitation, while the extrapolated-based model had a better performance when considering the amplitude parameter, i.e., the total amount of precipitation. With a lower error in the first hours of each run, the dynamical NWP model showed that an hourly update cycle helps to reduce the forecast errors noticeably. The results highlight the need of considering forecast model performance at different intensity thresholds and spatial scales.

A dynamic response prediction of ultra-high strain rates of composite materials based on a surrogate model

Based on the propagation of laser-induced tensile waves in materials and the principle of material ply cracking, nondestructive testing technology for measuring the interfacial bonding force of composite materials can be developed. The study of the ultra-high strain rate dynamic response model of composite materials under the action of laser shock waves is crucial to this technique. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for constructing a dynamic response prediction model for composites based on data and a physical model driven by comprehensively considering the strain rate effect of materials. The constructed model can accurately predict the peak velocity and duration of the initial pulse of the velocity curve under the condition of ultra-high strain rate. The relative error between the predicted and simulated peak values is within 3%, and the relative error between the predicted and simulated initial pulse durations is within 5%. In addition, laser impact experiments were conducted on specimens of various thicknesses to validate the accuracy of the predicted data at ultra-high strain rates. The results show that the relative errors between the predicted and experimental peak values are all within 2%, and the relative errors of the initial pulse duration are within 9%.

InSAR-CTPIM-Based 3D Deformation Prediction in Coal Mining Areas of the Baisha Reservoir, China

Time series dynamic prediction of surface deformation in mining areas can provide reference data for coal mine safety and production, which has important impacts. The combination of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technology and the probability integral method (PIM) is commonly used for predicting deformation. However, most surface subsidence prediction in mining areas is based on the static PIM parameters, failing to achieve the three-dimensional (3D) dynamic deformation prediction. This paper proposed a 3D deformation dynamic prediction model (InSAR-3D-CTPIM) between InSAR deformation observations and dynamic coordinate-time PIM (CTPIM) parameters, which can realize the prediction of east–west, north–south, and vertical series deformation caused by mining. The method has been validated by simulation experiments and real experiments in the mining area of Jiansheng Coal Mine in Baisha Reservoir, Henan Province, China. The results showed that the modeling accuracy was improved by 34.3% compared to the traditional multi-rate model, and the accuracy was improved by 28.5% compared to the vertical deformation obtained by the traditional static PIM method. The InSAR-3D-CTPIM model can be used to predict the evolutionary history of basin-wide surface deformation dynamics in coal mining areas, and provide a reference for the early warning and prediction of geological hazards in coal mining areas.

Dynamic prediction model of landslide displacement based on (SSA-VMD)-(CNN-BiLSTM-attention): a case study

Accurately predicting landslide displacement is essential for reducing and managing associated risks. To address the challenges of both under-decomposition and over-decomposition in landslide displacement analysis, as well as the low predictive accuracy of individual models, this paper proposes a novel prediction model based on time series theory. This model integrates a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory network (BiLSTM) and an attention mechanism to form a comprehensive CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model. It harnesses the feature extraction capabilities of CNN, the bidirectional data mining strength of BiLSTM, and the focus-enhancing properties of the attention mechanism to enhance landslide displacement predictions. Furthermore, this paper proposes utilizing the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) method to decompose both landslide displacement and its influencing factors. The VMD algorithm’s parameters are optimized through the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA), which effectively minimizes the influence of subjective bias while maintaining the integrity of the decomposition. A fusion of the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC) and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) is then employed to identify the critical influencing factors. The selected sequence of factors that conforms to the criteria is used as the input variable for displacement prediction via the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model. The cumulative displacement prediction is derived by aggregating the results from each sequence. The study reveals that the SSA-VMD-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model introduced herein achieves superior predictive accuracy for both periodic and random term displacements than individual models. This advancement provides a dependable benchmark for forecasting displacement in similar landslide scenarios.

High-Temperature Characteristics of Polyphosphoric Acid-Modified Asphalt and High-Temperature Performance Prediction Analysis of Its Mixtures

To promote the application of economical and sustainable polyphosphoric acid (PPA)-modified asphalt in road engineering, styrene-butadiene block copolymer (SBS), styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), and PPA were used to prepare PPA/SBS and PPA/SBR composite-modified asphalts, which were tested and the data analyzed. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) tests and thermogravimetric analysis (TG) tests were carried out to study the modification mechanisms of the composite-modified asphalts, and the high-temperature performance of the PPA-modified asphalt and asphalt mixtures was analyzed by dynamic shear rheology (DSR) tests and wheel tracking tests. A gray correlation analysis and a back-propagation (BP) neural network were utilized to construct a prediction model of the high-temperature performance of the asphalt and asphalt mixtures. The test results indicate that PPA chemically interacts with the base asphalt and physically integrates with SBS and SBR. The PPA-modified asphalt has a higher decomposition temperature than the base asphalt, indicating superior thermal stability. As the PPA dosage increases, the G*/sinδ value of the PPA-modified asphalt also increases. In particular, when 0.6% PPA is combined with 2% SBS/SBR, it surpasses the high-temperature performance achieved with 4% SBS/SBR, suggesting that PPA may be a good alternative for polymer modifiers. In addition, the creep recovery of PPA-modified asphalt is influenced by the stress level, and as the stress increases, the R-value decreases, resulting in reduced elastic deformation. Furthermore, the BP neural network model achieved a fit of 0.991 in predicting dynamic stability, with a mean percentage of relative error (MAPE) of 6.15% between measured and predicted values. This underscores the feasibility of using BP neural networks in predictive dynamic stability models.

Dynamic and Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator Based on Natural Language Processing for the Prediction of Psychosis in Secondary Mental Health Care: Development and Internal-External Validation Cohort Study

BackgroundAutomatic transdiagnostic risk calculators can improve the detection of individuals at risk of psychosis. However, they rely on assessment at a single point in time and can be refined with dynamic modeling techniques that account for changes in risk over time. MethodsWe included 158,139 patients (5007 events) who received a first index diagnosis of a nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within electronic health records from the South London and Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust between January 1, 2008, and October 8, 2021. A dynamic Cox landmark model was developed to estimate the 2-year risk of developing psychosis according to the TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariate prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis) statement. The dynamic model included 24 predictors extracted at 9 landmark points (baseline, 0, 6, 12, 24, 30, 36, 42, and 48 months): 3 demographic, 1 clinical, and 20 natural language processing–based symptom and substance use predictors. Performance was compared with a static Cox regression model with all predictors assessed at baseline only and indexed via discrimination (C-index), calibration (calibration plots), and potential clinical utility (decision curves) in internal-external validation. ResultsThe dynamic model improved discrimination performance from baseline compared with the static model (dynamic: C-index = 0.9; static: C-index = 0.87) and the final landmark point (dynamic: C-index = 0.79; static: C-index = 0.76). The dynamic model was also significantly better calibrated (calibration slope = 0.97–1.1) than the static model at later landmark points (≥24 months). Net benefit was higher for the dynamic than for the static model at later landmark points (≥24 months). ConclusionsThese findings suggest that dynamic prediction models can improve the detection of individuals at risk for psychosis in secondary mental health care settings.

A dynamic hybrid model for efficient tuberculosis incidence rate prediction

ABSTRACT Tuberculosis remains a global health challenge, predicting its incidences is crucial for effective planning and intervention strategies. This study combines AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Nonlinear AutoRegressive with exogenous input (NARX) models as an innovative approach for TB incidence rate prediction. The performance of the proposed model (ARIMA-NARX) was evaluated using standard metrics (MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE), and it was refined to achieve the best average predictive accuracies with an MSE: 0.0622, RMSE: 0.0851, MAE: 0.07520, and MAPE: 0.05535 followed by NARX 0.1597, 0.3189, 0.2724, and 0.3366, and ARIMA (2,0,0) 0.7781, 0.5959, 0.6524, and 0.6080 Models. These findings are expected to shed light on the TB incidence rate, providing valuable information to policymakers such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and health professionals. The developed model can potentially serve as a predictive tool for proactive TB control and intervention strategies in the region and the world at large.

Dynamic prediction of time to wound healing at routine wound care visits.

Objective Having a wound decreases patients' quality of life and brings uncertainty, especially if the wound does not show a healing tendency. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a model to dynamically predict time to wound healing at subsequent routine wound care visits. Approach A dynamic prediction model was developed in a cohort of wounds treated by nurse practitioners between 2017-2022. Potential predictors were selected based on literature, expert opinion, and availability in the routine care setting. To assess performance for future wound care visits, the model was validated in a new cohort of wounds visited in early 2023. Reporting followed TRIPOD guidelines. Results We analyzed data from 92,098 visits, corresponding to 14,248 wounds and 7,221 patients. At external validation, discriminative performance of our developed model was comparable to internal validation (c-statistic = 0.70 [95% CI 0.69, 0.71]) and the model remained well-calibrated. Strong predictors were wound-level characteristics and indicators of the healing process so far (e.g., wound surface area). Innovation Going beyond previous prediction studies in the field, the developed model dynamically predicts the remaining time to wound healing for many wound types at subsequent wound care visits, in line with the dynamic nature of wound care. In addition, the model was externally validated and showed stable performance. Conclusion: The developed model can potentially contribute to patient satisfaction and reduce uncertainty around wound healing times when implemented in practice. When the predicted time of wound healing remains high, practitioners can consider adapting their wound management.

Research on Reliability Prediction Methods for Dynamic Networks Based On Deep Neural Networks

In reality many networks, such as information storage networks, can be modelled as a multi-state stochastic flow network. The reliability of an information storage network is the probability that the network is able to deliver the required amount of information data to the specified server, and its an important metric to assess the performance of an information storage network. Most existing multi-state network reliability assessment algorithms are calculated using very small capacity vectors. However, calculating the reliability of such a network requires reuse of algorithms and is inefficient when the network size, demand, etc., changes rapidly, resulting in managers not making timely decisions accordingly. In order to obtain reliability metrics quickly, this paper proposes a dynamic network reliability prediction model based on deep neural networks (DNNs), which allows the corresponding reliability to be obtained quickly even when the network is changing rapidly. Finally, a local information storage network is used as an example for validation to illustrate the feasibility of the prediction model.

New joint model for the dynamic prediction of heart failure in phospholamban (PLN) p.(Arg14del) positive individuals

Abstract Background PLN p.(Arg14del) positive individuals are at risk for developing arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy which can cause severe heart failure. Future gene therapy could be lifesaving and is rapidly advancing. It is therefore of importance to identify eligible patients for this evolving treatment, with individuals risk prediction playing an imperative role in this process. Purpose To develop a dynamic prediction model for the individual risk prediction of heart failure in PLN p.(Arg14del) positive individuals. Method Data were collected of 564 PLN p.(Arg14del) positive individuals with no baseline history of heart failure or myocardial infarction. During a median follow-up of 6.3 years (interquartile range 2.9-10.0), 74 individuals experienced heart failure, defined as a composite endpoint of heart failure hospitalization, left ventricle assist device implantation, heart transplantation and heart failure-related death. For the individual prediction of time to heart failure we used a joint model which simultaneously estimates a longitudinal model for repeatedly measured left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) during follow-up and a Cox regression model for the hazards of the heart failure endpoint. Using the longitudinal model we predicted the LVEF-values of all patients at future time points using the estimated random-effects and these predicted LVEF values were used as a time-dependent covariate in the Cox model which also contained age at start of follow-up as predictor variable. Results The joint model trained in this study had a very good performance in discriminating the individuals at risk for heart failure, with the 5-year mean AUC of 0.86 and 10-year mean AUC of 0.84. The LVEF had a hazard ratio of 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86-0.93, p<0.001), and age at baseline 1.04 (95% CI 1.03-1.06], p<0.001), meaning a lower LVEF and higher age at presentation were associated with heart failure. Figure 1 shows an example of an individual risk prediction with on the x-axis the follow-up time in years, on the y-axis (left) the LVEF in % and on the y-axis (right) the predicted survival probability. Conclusion Individual risk prediction with a simple model including only LVEF and age is of great importance for identifying PLN p.(Arg14del) positive individuals who are at risk of developing heart failure. The introduction of this novel joint prediction model is the first step in identifying individuals at risk for heart failure and may aid patient selection for future gene therapy interventions.

SERUM TRANSACTIVE RESPONSE DNA BINDING PROTEIN 43 ASSOCIATES WITH POOR SHORT-TERM NEUROLOGIC OUTCOME AFTER RETURN OF SPONTANEOUS CIRCULATION FOLLOWING CARDIAC ARREST.

Objective : To explore the association of serum transactive response DNA binding protein 43 (TDP-43) with 28-day poor neurologic outcome in patients with return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) after cardiac arrest. Methods : We performed a study between January and December 2023. Eligible patients with ROSC following cardiac arrest were enrolled. Their baseline characteristics were collected, and serum levels of TDP-43, tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-6 and 10, C-reactive protein, and neuron-specific enolase (NSE) at 24 h after ROSC were measured. The neurologic function was assessed by the cerebral performance category scores on day 28 after ROSC. Results : A total of 92 patients were included, with 51 and 41 patients in the good and poor neurologic outcome groups, respectively. Serum TDP-43 was significantly higher in the poor than the good neurologic outcome group ( P < 0.05). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that TDP-43, Witnessed CA, IL-6, and NSE were associated with poor 28-day neurologic outcome (all P < 0.05). Restricted cubic spline analysis revealed that TDP-43 at the serum level of 11.64 pg/mL might be an ideal cutoff value for distinguishing between good and poor neurologic outcomes. Area under curve of serum TDP-43 (AUC = 0.78) was close to that of serum NSE (AUC = 0.82). A dynamic nomogram prediction model that combined TDP-43, Witnessed CA, IL-6, and NSE was constructed and validated. Conclusion : Elevated serum TDP-43 level was associated with and could be used together with Witnessed CA, IL-6, and NSE to predict poor 28-day neurologic outcome in patients after ROSC following cardiac arrest.

A self-attention dynamic graph convolution network model for traffic flow prediction

A self-attention dynamic graph convolution network model for traffic flow prediction

Using artificial intelligence to predict mortality in AKI patients: a systematic review/meta-analysis.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with increased morbidity/mortality. With artificial intelligence (AI), more dynamic models for mortality prediction in AKI patients have been developed using machine learning (ML) algorithms. The performance of various ML models was reviewed in terms of their ability to predict in-hospital mortality for AKI patients. A literature search was conducted through PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases. Included studies contained variables regarding the efficacy of the AI model [the AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value]. Only original studies that consisted of cross-sectional studies, prospective and retrospective studies were included, while reviews and self-reported outcomes were excluded. There was no restriction on time and geographic location. Eight studies with 37 032 AKI patients were included, with a mean age of 65.3 years. The in-hospital mortality was 18.0% in the derivation and 15.8% in the validation cohorts. The pooled [95% confidence interval (CI)] AUC was observed to be highest for the broad learning system (BLS) model [0.852 (0.820-0.883)] and elastic net final (ENF) model [0.852 (0.813-0.891)], and lowest for proposed clinical model (PCM) [0.765 (0.716-0.814)]. The pooled (95% CI) AUC of BLS and ENF did not differ significantly from other models except PCM [Delong's test P=.022]. PCM exhibited the highest negative predictive value, which supports this model's use as a possible rule-out tool. Our results show that BLS and ENF models are equally effective as other ML models in predicting in-hospital mortality, with variability across all models. Additional studies are needed.

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world.

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

A Multiple Controlled Toffoli Driven Adaptive Quantum Neural Network Model for Dynamic Workload Prediction in Cloud Environments.

The key challenges in cloud computing encompass dynamic resource scaling, load balancing, and power consumption. Accurate workload prediction is identified as a crucial strategy to address these challenges. Despite numerous methods proposed to tackle this issue, existing approaches fall short of capturing the high-variance nature of volatile and dynamic cloud workloads. Consequently, this paper introduces a novel model aimed at addressing this limitation. This paper presents a novel Multiple Controlled Toffoli-driven Adaptive Quantum Neural Network (MCT-AQNN) model to establish an empirical solution to complex, elastic as well as challenging workload prediction problems by optimizing the exploration, adaption, and exploitation proficiencies through quantum learning. The computational adaptability of quantum computing is ingrained with machine learning algorithms to derive more precise correlations from dynamic and complex workloads. The furnished input data point and hatched neural weights are refitted in the form of qubits while the controlling effects of Multiple Controlled Toffoli (MCT) gates are operated at the hidden and output layers of Quantum Neural Network (QNN) for enhancing learning capabilities. Complimentarily, a Uniformly Adaptive Quantum Machine Learning (UAQL) algorithm has evolved to functionally and effectually train the QNN. The extensive experiments are conducted and the comparisons are performed with state-of-the-art methods using four real-world benchmark datasets. Experimental results evince that MCT-AQNN has up to 32%-96% higher accuracy than the existing approaches.

Prediction of Cleaning Loss of Rice Wheat Combine Harvester Based on Dynamic Bayesian

The cleaning loss rate is a crucial performance metric for rice-wheat combine harvesters. Most studies on the relationship between the cleaning operation parameters of the combined harvester and the cleaning loss rate lack research on the dynamic correlation between harvest losses and operational parameters, specifically focusing on the dynamic correlation between harvest losses and multiple operational parameters such as the cleaning loss rate. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic deductive model for the scenario of harvesting loss regulation involving multiple operational parameters, delving into the dynamic associations between cleaning loss and the regulation of multiple operational parameters and constructing dynamic Bayesian network prediction model. Through experimental analysis of the dynamic Bayesian network prediction model for cleaning loss rates, the comparison of results among the other three algorithms demonstrated that it was efficient for our DBN to predict the cleaning loss rate.

Dynamic Prediction Model of Financial Asset Volatility Based on Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Networks

Predicting financial market volatility is essential for investors and risk management. This study proposes a dynamic prediction model for financial asset volatility, with a Bi-directional Recurrent Neural Network (Bi-RNN) utilized to cleverly address market complexity. Our framework integrates Bi-RNN and gated recurrent units (GRU) to perform global optimization via particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO). Bi-RNN combines historical data and future expectations, while GRU effectively solves long-term dependency issues through a gating mechanism, which enhances model generalization. Experimental results show that the model exhibits significant performance advantages on different financial datasets, along with strong learning and generalization capabilities superior to traditional methods. This research provides advanced and practical solutions for financial asset fluctuation prediction and is of positive significance for the greater accuracy of investment decisions and risk mitigation.

Application of energy scheduling algorithm based on energy consumption prediction in smart home energy scheduling

To effectively optimize household energy management, enhance user comfort, and ensure the stability of the power grid, this paper directs its focus towards household equipment and presents inter-household and indoor energy scheduling algorithms. Grounded in a two-dimensional dynamic device priority framework and predictive device operation modeling, this study demonstrates that the utilization of scheduling algorithms can avert grid overload scenarios during periods of low electricity prices. This results in more consistent hourly electricity consumption and a substantial peak-to-average ratio reduction of up to 44.86 %. Additionally, the application of the continuous wavelet neural network algorithm proves to be proficient in accurately forecasting home device operations. When the time was 17.5 h, the actual energy consumption of the water heater was 7.12 kWh, which was 0.78 kWh more than the predicted energy consumption. Utilizing scheduling algorithms, as opposed to not employing them, led to notable reductions in electricity expenses, demonstrating a cost savings rate of 15.32 % on the third day. Additionally, it facilitated decreased usage of the power grid. When the time was 18 o'clock, the power consumption of the grid using scheduling algorithms was 0.24 kWh, which was 0.25 kWh lower than that without scheduling algorithms. Following the implementation of the scheduling algorithm, minimal deviation in device startup times was observed during periods of high comfort, with offsets ranging from 0 h. The research methods employed demonstrate efficacy in orchestrating energy distribution among households and indoor spaces, thereby striking a harmonious balance between energy conservation and user comfort.

An Interwell Connectivity Assessment Model for Polymer Flooding Short-Term Development Data Based on A-LSTM and EFAST Methods

Interwell connectivity assessment in polymer-driven reservoirs is critical for setting appropriate injection rates and improving oil recovery. Traditional deep learning techniques often lack accuracy and reliability when applied to short-term oilfield production data. In response, the A-LSTM algorithm is proposed, which integrates the attention mechanism with a long- and short-term memory network (LSTM). The predictive accuracy of A-LSTM is assessed and juxtaposed with LSTM and support vector regression (SVR) algorithms for short-term single-well daily oil production analysis. The Huber loss function was utilized to quantify the difference between predicted and actual results, resulting in a dynamic production prediction model. An interwell connectivity (IWC) assessment model is then obtained by fusing the dynamic production prediction model with the EFAST method, thus demonstrating the superior prediction accuracy of A-LSTM in oil production prediction and connectivity assessment. Moreover, the credibility of the assessment is further corroborated through numerical simulations and interwell tracer tests. The study results showed that the interwell connectivity evaluation model based on the A-LSTM algorithm and EFAST method is not only capable of accurately predicting the single-well daily oil production using a small sample dataset but also a highly reliable method for interwell connectivity evaluation, and the application of the interwell connectivity assessment model can further guide polymer flooding work in oilfields.

Dynamic error prediction and link strain feedback control for a novel heavy load multi-DOF envelope forming machine

Thin walled and high rib components (TWHRC) are widely used for rocket cabins, aircraft wings, panels and frames in aerospace equipment as critical load bearing structures. This paper is aimed to develop a novel multi-DOF envelope forming machine (MEFM) with parallel kinematic mechanism (PKM) to realize efficient manufacturing of TWHRC with high performance. Since the heavy load MEFM with PKM has many total differences with the light load PKM, such as dynamic error and precision control, this paper conducts research on dynamic error prediction modelling and precision control method for this novel heavy load MEFM.Firstly, the configuration of MEFM is developed and the kinematic model of MEFM is established. Then, a RFC (rigid-flexible coupling) and RFE (rigid finite element) coupling dynamic model of MEFM is established considering time-variation of kinematic configuration caused by large deformation of all the kinematic elements. Based on the dynamic model, the dynamic deformation and error of MEFM are predicted and their generation mechanisms are revealed. It is found that the linear compression deformation of two-force links is the largest among all the kinematic elements, and it is the most sensitive to the heavy forming load and the most insensitive to the installation error of strain gauges, thus suiting for the feedback of large deformation of MEFM. Based on the above findings, a novel link strain feedback and dynamic error compensation control method is proposed. Finally, experiments under different control methods are conducted, showing that the motion precision of envelope tool and forming precision of formed components under the proposed control method are remarkably improved compared with that under the traditional control method (The geometric deviation of formed components under the proposed control method is remarkably reduced to −18 ∼ 32um from −64 ∼ 54um under the traditional control method). The experimental results verify that the proposed dynamic error prediction model and link strain feedback control method for heavy load MEFM are reasonable.