Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Research Articles

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Analysis of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Lessons Learned for Cambodia

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Analysis of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Lessons Learned for Cambodia

INVITED PAPER — COMPARISON OF VARIOUS FISCAL POLICIES IN THE FACE OF DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC STAGES

This study examines the impact of aging on the effectiveness of various fiscal expenditures, including government consumption, one-time government transfers to households, public investment and R&D spending, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our findings reveal that (1) Aging enhances the effects of the transfer on augmenting GDP. (2) Regardless of aging, R&D expenditure consistently stands out over all time spans, with younger society benefiting more. (3) Public investment ranks second among for different fiscal policies in the long run, while shows bigger impact in younger society. (4) One-time transfer has only a temporary effect and is the least effective in boosting GDP in both young and old societies. (5) Multipliers for public investment and R&D expenditure increase with the accumulation of public capital and TFP. Their multiplier of young society is larger than old society because impact on consumption is much more effective.

Intellectual property rights protection and the dynamic gains from trade

AbstractThis paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model with two structurally identical open economies. Trade liberalization promotes innovation and growth when intellectual property rights (IPR) protection is sufficiently weak. Trade on the other hand does not affect innovation and growth when IPR protection is strong. We show that this result holds for both horizontal and vertical endogenous growth models, which have so far had contradictory predictions on how trade affects innovation. The reason for this supposed contradiction are implicit IPR protection assumptions in the two different types of growth models, strong protection in the horizontal model and weak protection in the vertical model. The IPR protection assumption makes a big difference for the size of the gains from trade. In a simple numerical example we show that assuming weak IPR protection can imply more than five times higher overall gains from trade. We also build a North–South model and add another aspect of IPR protection influencing the duration of Northern patents, namely imitation in the South. In the asymmetric model with a competitive fringe in the South, IPR protection no longer plays a crucial role for the dynamic gains from trade.

Carbon emissions cap or energy technology subsidies? Exploring the carbon reduction policy based on a multi-technology sectoral DSGE model

As global climate change becomes increasingly severe, energy technology innovation has become a key means of coping with the climate crisis and realizing green and low-carbon development. However, existing literature rarely examines the effects of carbon emission reduction policies based on the perspective of energy technology progress for both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term equilibrium. This paper introduces the fossil energy technology sector and the renewable energy technology sector into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and compares the effectiveness of the carbon emission cap policy, the fossil energy technology subsidy policy, and the renewable energy technology subsidy policy under the framework of China’s carbon trading market in promoting macroeconomic growth and controlling pollutant emissions. We found that in long-term, the emission reduction effect of the carbon emission cap policy falls short of the other two policies, and subsidizing fossil fuel technologies is more cost-efficient comparatively. The government expenditure shock can all stimulate macroeconomic growth with crowding out of private investment and household consumption, whereas the energy technology research productivity shock leads to a decline in total output and an increase in renewable energy technology demand. In addition, pollutant emissions are pro-cyclical under the impact of total carbon policies and counter-cyclical under the impact of energy technology subsidy policies. This article constructs a multi-technology sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, expanding the research perspective and theoretical framework for evaluating carbon emission reduction policies. At the same time, it proves the importance of the government to implement the phased energy technology subsidy policy while implementing the carbon emission cap policy, which provides important enlightenment for the implementation and adjustment of carbon emission reduction policy.

Capital Control Taxes in an Emerging Market Economy

Historically, Emerging Markets (EMs) that own foreign debt and exhibit a high degree of dollarization have demonstrated vulnerability to a range of both real and financial shocks. Governments often use a range of capital control measures, particularly in nations burdened with external debt, with the aim of mitigating sudden swings in both inflows and outflows of capital. These policies are implemented to lessen exchange rate volatility and prevent dollarization. This study employs second moments analysis, impulse response functions and the welfare analysis to investigate the impact of a tax policy that restricts international capital flows on several macroeconomic variables in an emerging economy. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is employed to examine the impact of the tax imposed on foreign borrowing on the economy, including both real shocks such as technology and growth, as well as financial shocks such as country risk premium. The findings of the study indicate that capital control taxes have a diminishing effect on the variability of significant macroeconomic variables, such as investment and consumption, when imposed at lower levels. Conversely, these taxes exhibit a stabilizing impact on the volatility of the trade balance-to-output ratio when implemented at higher levels. Moreover, quantitative evidence reveals that country risk premium shocks exert a substantial influence on variations in both the trade balance-to-output ratio and the level of investment, accounting for around 25% and 50% of the fluctuations, respectively. Finally, the existence of such a taxation enhances the intertemporal utility function at the steady state and reduces its volatility in the case of technology and growth shocks.

Analysis of the transmission of carbon taxes using a multi-sector DSGE

Carbon tax has attracted increasing attention as a means of curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While the implementation of carbon taxes necessarily involves consideration of the impact across different sectors and different periods, most existing studies use models which do not provide a detailed account of either sectoral interaction or the dynamic nature of the responses of households and firms. To fill this gap, we construct a New Keynesian multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an input–output structure of intermediate inputs and an investment network calibrated to Japan’s economy. We study the impact over time of carbon tax on different sectors, on aggregate GDP, and on GHG emissions. We then consider the long-term implications through a steady-state analysis, and the short- to medium-term implications by a simulation from 2020 to 2050, under various scenarios with different tax base compositions and announcement timings. We show that the impact on the trade-off between output and GHG emissions is importantly affected by inter-sectoral interactions among firms, and by the intertemporal decisions of households and firms. For example, an orderly implementation of carbon tax may mitigate a decline in value added of the most affected industry and the aggregate economy in 2050 by about 7% and 2% points, respectively, and contain an increase in the stock of GHG in 2050 by 3% points compared with the case of disorderly implementation. Also, keeping GHG emissions constant, GDP in 2050 can vary by 0.5% points depending on tax sources.

The monetary policy of the State Bank of Vietnam, households and income distribution: the evidence from DSGE model

PurposeThis paper aims to propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to assess the response from the household sector to monetary policy shocks through the consumption function. Moreover, the transmission from monetary policy to household consumption and income distribution is experimented with through the vector autoregression (VAR) model.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors used the maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the DSGE and VAR models with the sample from 1996Q1 to the end of 2021Q4 (104 observations).FindingsThe DSGE model’s results show that the response of the household sector is as expected in the theory: a monetary policy shock occurs that increases the policy interest rate by 0.29%, leading to a decrease in consumer spending of about 0.041%, the shock fades after one year. Estimates from the VAR model give similar results: a monetary policy shock narrows income inequality after about 2–3 quarters and this process tends to slow down in the long run.Research limitations/implicationsBased on the research results, the authors propose policy implications for the SBV to achieve the goal of price stability, and stabilizing the macro-economic environment in Vietnam.Originality/valueThe findings of the study have theoretical contributions and empirical scientific evidence showing the effectiveness of the implementation of the SBV’s monetary policy in the context of macro-instability, namely: flexibility, caution and coordination of different measures promptly.

Estimation of industry-level basic digital capital services in China: A variable depreciation rate estimation method based on DSGE

Accurately measuring the input of digital capital is of great significance for understanding the development pattern of China's digital economy, nurturing new quality productivity, and achieving high-quality development. However, existing representative studies often assume a constant depreciation rate for capital goods, which does not align with reality. In this paper, we address this limitation by introducing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that estimates the variable depreciation rate for each capital good. By setting the depreciation rate as a function of capital maintenance expenditures and utilization rates, we provide a more realistic approach. The empirical results obtained through Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the trend of depreciation rates for all types of capital goods aligns with China's economic development. Additionally, we find that investment-specific technology shock plays a significant role in affecting changes in the depreciation rates of capital goods. This shock leads to an increase in capital utilization rates and a decrease in capital maintenance expenditures, resulting in higher depreciation rates. Notably, the depreciation rate of basic digital capital is more sensitive to exogenous shock compared to non-digital capital. Furthermore, the paper estimates the basic digital capital service of 19 industries in China from 1981 to 2020. The results indicate a steady increase in the services provided by basic digital capital, with particularly rapid growth observed in industries such as information transmission, software and information technology services, and the financial sector. When comparing our estimation results with those of representative literature, we find that the national-level productive capital stock and the basic digital capital services estimated using our methodology closely align with existing literature. This validation confirms the effectiveness of our methodology and the reliability of the estimated industry-level basic digital capital services.

Economic impacts of meeting China's NDC through carbon taxes with alternative schemes for recycling tax revenues

This study examines the impact of meeting China's Paris Climate Agreement commitment to reduce its emission intensity by 65 % below 2005 levels by 2030 through various policy instruments. We use a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model to simulate the economy-wide impacts of administrative mandates and carbon taxes using different revenue recycling schemes. China's GDP in 2030 would be approximately 1 % lower than the baseline if carbon emissions were constrained by mandates. The commitment's economic costs are lower than the carbon constraint case, regardless of revenue recycling. Economic costs are the lowest when carbon tax revenue is recycled to reduce taxes on capital or corporate income. Subsidizing solar and wind energy further reduces emissions, but at a higher economic cost with a GDP loss of about 0.53 %–0.58 % from the baseline. The results highlight the importance of proper design architecture to make carbon taxes more palatable to policymakers and taxpayers.

Grappling with the trade-offs of carbon emission trading and green certificate: Achieving carbon neutrality in China

Although our knowledge of national carbon emission trading system and green certificate trading system are powerful incentive instruments that can deliver on increasingly ambitious climate targets in China, there remains an uncertainty of systems' structural reforms. This study builds on and extends a well-established dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate carbon trading system and green certificate trading system into the modeling framework, simulating a diverse of system development pathways further allows an exploration of the many possible policy effect. Then, using total factor productivity as a comprehensive indicator to asses policy effectiveness, the evolutionary trend of comprehensive effects under different paths are separately evaluated to discover the reforms’ optimal range. Our work offers main results: First, these instruments provide a price signal. The introduction of a carbon allowance auction drive up carbon prices, while the implementation of a green certificate punishment and the expansion of the trading scope promote an increase in green certificate prices. Second, all policy scenarios that help reduce carbon emission intensity and optimize the power supply structure. However, in achieving the net-zero goal, the green certificate policy incurs more economic costs than the carbon trading policy. Indeed, the combination of multiple policy tools alleviates the decline of social welfare levels. Third, synergism design among policy tools: the focus should be on carbon trading policy from 2021 to 2030, green certificate trading policy from 2030 to 2050, and strengthened policy from 2050 to 2060. Reform measures within policies may need to be introduced in a timely manner. This study offers specific insights and tailored policy proposals to support policymakers in balancing environmental goals with economic and social needs in light of the aforementioned findings.

The impact of digital inclusive financial development on local government expenditure: Evidence from China.

This paper investigates the impact of digital inclusive financial development on local government expenditure incentives at the income level. It does so by constructing a multi-level government Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates the financial sector. By employing empirical methods that involve uncertainty shocks and counterfactual simulations, the research yields several key findings. Firstly, the development of digital inclusive finance contributes to breaking down the urban-rural dual financial structure, thus facilitating balanced economic development within regions. Secondly, it reduces the proportion of financially excluded areas, accelerates fiscal decentralization, leading to an increase in local government fiscal revenue, and, consequently, an expansion of local fiscal expenditures. Thirdly, at a certain stage of digital inclusive finance development, it tends to crowd out residents' investment and consumption. Therefore, the decentralization of fiscal power and the expansion of local government expenditure at this stage may paradoxically inhibit regional economic growth. The study's conclusions validate the significant impact of digital inclusive finance on local government incentives at the income level.

Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy

Abstract We document five novel facts about the role of search effort in forming trading relationships among firms by combining a variety of micro and macro datasets. These facts strongly suggest the presence of search complementarities. To study the implications of these facts for aggregate fluctuations, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model, disciplined by our new firm-level evidence on search effort. The model matches key aspects of the macro and micro data that have remained unaccounted for by standard models, including the time-varying bimodal distribution of output and the strong, nonlinear propagation of shocks. Also, changes to the volatility of shocks have nonlinear effects on macroeconomic fluctuations that advance a novel interpretation of the Great Moderation. Finally, we provide a new account of the state-dependent effects of fiscal policy.

Assessing regional employment effects of the national emission trading scheme in China: Does Okun's law work?

Employment creation and climate change mitigation are core tasks for achieving sustainable development goals. Whether or not carbon mitigation policy facilitate employment deserves deep exploration. Through the construction of multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) with more scientific energy & environment block, this paper first evaluates regional employment effects of the national emission trading scheme (ETS) in China. Furthermore, we explore the Okun's law of the national ETS based on the mediating effect model. The results show that whether in carbon-intensive industries (CIIs) or non-carbon-intensive industries (NCIIs), employment effects of the national ETS are differentiated across regions. Specifically, the national ETS generally promotes CIIs' employment in Southern, Eastern, Middle Yangtze River and Southwest regions, and has negative effects on CIIs' employment in other regions. Meanwhile, the national ETS brings employment creation to NCIIs of Southern region, while there are opposite results in NCIIs of Northeast region and mixed results in NCIIs of other regions. Moreover, the Okun's law of the national ETS holds in CIIs of each region, but it not fits the data for NCIIs. Therefore, it is important for the Chinese government to consider the differentiated employment effects in different regions carefully rather than adopt one-size-fit-all solution when constructing the national carbon market.

Desirable banking competition and stability

Every financial crisis raises questions about how the banking market structure affects the real economy. Although low bank concentration may reduce markups and foster riskier behavior, concentrated banking systems appear more resilient to financial shocks. We use a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions to compare the transmissions of shocks under different competition and concentration configurations. The results reveal that oligopolistic competition amplifies the effects of the shocks relative to monopolistic competition. The transmission mechanism works through the markups, which are amplified when banking concentration is increased. The desirable banking market structure is determined according to financial stability and social welfare objectives. Moreover, we find that depending on policymakers’ preferences, a banking concentration of five to eight banks balances social welfare and bank stability objectives in the United States.

Examining business cycles and optimal monetary policy in a regional DSGE model

I construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model consisting of geographic regions and use state level data to estimate the effects that monetary policy and financial shocks have on the four census regions of the United States. The DSGE model I use is constructed around a centralized monetary authority and financial market with regional output, labor and investment markets. I find significant heterogeneity amongst the regional structural parameters of the model, creating different business cycle dynamics for the four regions. The estimated model aligns with other economic studies that suggest that monetary shocks have a greater impact in certain geographic regions in terms of employment, inflation, wages, and consumption. Simulating the estimated model, I find that monetary policy that considers the regional variation in output and inflation can significantly lower the volatility around national output and inflation. The paper’s results suggest that regional macroeconomic conditions should be considered in monetary policy decisions.

Time-Varying Parameter Four-Equation DSGE Model

Time-Varying Parameter Four-Equation DSGE Model

The NY Fed DSGE Model: A Post-COVID Assessment

We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model since 2011. We find the DSGE's accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters before COVID but somewhat worse thereafter.

Macroeconomic impact of environmental policy uncertainty and monetary policy implications

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic implications of uncertainty arising from delays or unpredictability regarding the timing and extent of environmental policy implementation. An environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model shows that increasing uncertainty about environmental policies is associated with a subsequent decline in investment, as firms prefer to postpone investment decisions. The decline in physical investment within polluting sectors subsequently induces a fall in employment, consumption and output. Using a novel climate policy uncertainty index developed by Gavriilidis (2021), alongside Google Trend data index, the paper shows that uncertainty about climate regulations has both recessionary and inflationary effects, corroborating the theoretical findings. Further analysis suggests that appropriate monetary policy tools could moderate the welfare cost arising from the environmental policy uncertainty, emphasizing the need for Central Banks to adopt a more aggressive stance in stabilizing GDP and inflation in the face of environmental policy uncertainty shocks.

Welfare-maximizing patent length in a dynamic general equilibrium model

Abstract This article examines analytically the welfare-maximizing patent length in a dynamic general equilibrium model which is based on a variety expansion R&D-based growth model. The results show that if the elasticity of substitution among the intermediate goods is higher, that is, the price elasticity of demand is higher, the welfare-maximizing patent length is shorter. This article also examines the welfare-maximizing mix of patent length and breadth, and numerically obtains similar results, that is, a higher elasticity of substitution shortens the welfare-maximizing length.

Imperfect coordination in DSGE models: The resurgence of Keynes in mainstream macroeconomics

The imperfect coordination of expectations and actions is a central theme running through Keynes’s General Theory. Incorporating this theme into mainstream macroeconomics, however, has proved to be a difficult endeavour. In particular, attempts to accommodate coordination failures within Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models through multiple equilibria and “dynamic” indeterminacy, while promising in the 1990s, were gradually abandoned in the 2000s. Since then, the “New Keynesian” framework has come to dominate macroeconomic modelling. And since the coordination of agents is not at issue in this latter framework, mainstream macroeconomics has seemed to leave the coordination theme out of its focus, if not its scope. In this paper, we challenge this perception and argue that the coordination theme is actually alive and well. We especially present two recent research programmes which, while belonging to the DSGE paradigm, give pride of place to coordination failures and share a common objective: providing, within the class of DSGE models, an alternative to the New Keynesian framework that would involve the most important ideas emerging from Keynes’s General Theory.