Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Research Articles

Is the output growth rate in NIPA a welfare measure?

Abstract This paper shows that, in a dynamic general equilibrium framework, the rate of output growth as measured by national income and product accounts reflects changes in welfare in the precise sense of equivalent variation. The main argument is straightforward. In a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of heterogeneous households, recursive preferences and quasi-concave technology, the Bellman equation provides a representation of household preferences over current consumption and investment. When applied to this representation of preferences, a Fisher–Shell true quantity index turns out to be equal to the Divisia index, closely approximated by the Fisher ideal chain index used in national income and product accounts.

Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China

A carbon tax is a promising environmental regulation. Given its heavy industrial base and substantial reliance on coal, China is under immense pressure to transition to greener energy systems. This paper enriches Annicchiarico and Di Dio’s (2015) dynamic general equilibrium model for environmental policy analysis by integrating a Schumpeterian innovation-driven clean energy transition that endogenizes the carbon intensity of energy inputs. We analyze the environmental, energy, economic, and social impacts of various hypothetical carbon taxes – including an energy excise tax on households, an emission tax on general producers, and an energy tax on energy suppliers – across different tax rates and subsidy strategies for both short-term and long-term effects. We show that: (i) by internalizing carbon intensity, a carbon tax can achieve a “quadruple dividend”, encompassing emission reduction, energy transition, economic growth, and welfare enhancement; (ii) the optimal carbon tax strategy, integrating both an emission tax and an energy tax, directs revenue towards supporting the clean energy transition; (iii) under a single environmental regime, a composite carbon tax exceeding 250 CNY/ton is optimal, while under multiple regimes, 25 CNY/ton suffices to reduce carbon emissions per unit of output by over 90%; (iv) despite their benefits, all carbon taxes compel firms to reorganize production, inevitably risking unemployment.

Financial crises with different collateral types

Firms borrow against earnings more than they do against their assets. How does this affect the aggregate response to financial crises? I take a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms that choose their capital and debt subject to a borrowing constraint and examine the recovery from a financial crisis when firms can use different types of collateral. I compare between two collateral types: assets, and earnings. I find that when firms borrow against earnings recessions are deeper, but recoveries are quicker compared to when firms borrow against assets. I also find that neither type of collateral can, by itself, completely explain the recovery from the Great Recession. Instead, the path of investment after the 2007-2008 Financial crisis is better captured by firms borrowing against earnings than by firms borrowing against assets, but this is reversed when looking at the path of output. This suggests that a combination of collateral types is required to fully capture the recovery from the Great Recession.

Dynamics of automation in economic growth and the labor market

AbstractThis study delves into the intricate dynamics of technology, labor markets, and economic growth within the context of Industry 4.0. By integrating automation capital into a dynamic general equilibrium model, we examine its implications for economic performance and social equity. The empirical analysis highlights the substitutability of unskilled labor by automation, revealing a nuanced relationship between automation adoption, the skill premium, and economic growth. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our findings suggest that a reduced ratio of unskilled to skilled labor, driven by automation, can lead to both an increase in the skill premium and sustained economic growth, even in the face of demographic challenges such as declining populations. However, this trend also exacerbates income inequality, underscoring the imperative for policy interventions aimed at promoting skill enhancement and ensuring equitable distribution of technological advancements.

Evaluating the impact of a 24-hour economy on Ghana's economic landscape: A computable general equilibrium approach

The National Democratic Congress (NDC), Ghana's leading opposition political party, has unveiled an ambitious ‘24-hour economy’ policy proposal ahead of the country's forthcoming general elections in 2024. The policy aims to revitalise the nation's economic landscape by fostering round-the-clock operations in key sectors. This paper employs a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model framework, underpinned by the 2015 Ghana Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and the 2021 Ghana Population and Housing Census (PHC) data, to evaluate the potential impact of the policy on Ghana's economy.Results indicate that under the proposed ‘24-hour economy’ policy, Ghana's real GDP growth (not to be confused with GDP growth rate) in ten years would be 31.71 % higher than it would have been under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario in the same timeframe. This indicates substantial augmentations in economic output within the Ghanaian economy under a ‘24-hour economy’ setting. Further, the policy would generate more than 3 million jobs within five years of its implementation, with manufacturing, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, services, construction and transport sectors experiencing substantial employment gains.The policy's transformative effects are driven by its ability to stimulate capital investment and capital formation, boost productivity and increase household incomes.The paper concludes that the NDC's proposed ‘24-hour economy’ policy holds substantial potential for transformative economic growth in Ghana. However, there are potential challenges associated with the implementation of the policy, which then necessitates a holistic approach to policy formulation, focusing on inclusive growth and sustainable development strategies.

On the forecasting performance of small-scale DGSE models: a Monte Carlo evaluation and an application to UK

This article investigates the forecasting performance of a new small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. To this end, this article first conducts a Monte Carlo study for the evaluation of the new model against another DSGE model , a standard vector autoregression (VAR), and a Bayesian VAR, using root mean square error and directional accuracy measures. An empirical application to UK quarterly data of output gap, inflation, and interest rates over the period 1986–2019 is also carried out for point and density forecasts. The empirical findings unveil a better performance of the new model for directional accuracy than for root mean square error, while density forecasts indicate no statistical differences among the new model and the VAR models.

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Analysis of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Lessons Learned for Cambodia

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Analysis of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Lessons Learned for Cambodia

INVITED PAPER — COMPARISON OF VARIOUS FISCAL POLICIES IN THE FACE OF DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC STAGES

This study examines the impact of aging on the effectiveness of various fiscal expenditures, including government consumption, one-time government transfers to households, public investment and R&D spending, using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our findings reveal that (1) Aging enhances the effects of the transfer on augmenting GDP. (2) Regardless of aging, R&D expenditure consistently stands out over all time spans, with younger society benefiting more. (3) Public investment ranks second among for different fiscal policies in the long run, while shows bigger impact in younger society. (4) One-time transfer has only a temporary effect and is the least effective in boosting GDP in both young and old societies. (5) Multipliers for public investment and R&D expenditure increase with the accumulation of public capital and TFP. Their multiplier of young society is larger than old society because impact on consumption is much more effective.

Efficiency and Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy in Emerging Economies: The Case of Morocco

This paper studies the welfare cost of fiscal policy in developing economies where a significant fraction of the population is government spending-dependent, using as an example Morocco. We develop a Dynamic General Equilibrium model representing an economy populated by three types of households: Standard Ricardian households with access to the financial market, households who supply labor but have no access to the financial market, and non-active government-dependent households (who behave as hand-to-mouth agents). The paper computes welfare changes of different tax rates and alternative spending policies and quantifies the trade-off of fiscal policy across the different groups of agents. We find that: (i) Distortions from some taxes can be positive due to the presence of public inputs; (ii) Output efficiency can be gained by changing the tax mix while keeping constant fiscal revenues; and (iii) Social welfare gains can be obtained by increasing public investment and reducing government consumption and keeping lump-sum transfers constant.

Intellectual property rights protection and the dynamic gains from trade

AbstractThis paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model with two structurally identical open economies. Trade liberalization promotes innovation and growth when intellectual property rights (IPR) protection is sufficiently weak. Trade on the other hand does not affect innovation and growth when IPR protection is strong. We show that this result holds for both horizontal and vertical endogenous growth models, which have so far had contradictory predictions on how trade affects innovation. The reason for this supposed contradiction are implicit IPR protection assumptions in the two different types of growth models, strong protection in the horizontal model and weak protection in the vertical model. The IPR protection assumption makes a big difference for the size of the gains from trade. In a simple numerical example we show that assuming weak IPR protection can imply more than five times higher overall gains from trade. We also build a North–South model and add another aspect of IPR protection influencing the duration of Northern patents, namely imitation in the South. In the asymmetric model with a competitive fringe in the South, IPR protection no longer plays a crucial role for the dynamic gains from trade.

Promoting Decarbonization in China: Revealing the Impact of Various Energy Policies on the Power Sector Based on a Coupled Model

The carbon emissions of the power industry account for over 50% of China’s total carbon emissions, so achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the power sector is crucial. This study aims to simulate the impacts of three energy policies—carbon constraints, the development of a high proportion of renewable energy, and carbon trading—on China’s energy transition, economic development, and the power sector’s energy mix. Through the construction of a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China and its integration with the SWITCH-China electricity model, the impact of diverse energy policies on China’s energy transition, economic progress, and the power mix within the electricity industry has been simulated. The integration of the SWITCH-China model can address the limitations of the CGE model in providing a detailed understanding of the specific intricacies of the electricity sector. The results indicate that increasing the stringency of carbon restrictions compels a reduction in fossil energy use, controlling the output of coal-fired power units, and thereby reducing carbon emissions. The development of a high proportion of renewable energy enhances the cleanliness of the power sector’s generation structure, further promoting the national energy transition. Implementing a carbon trading policy, where the entire industry shares the burden of carbon reduction costs, can effectively mitigate the economic losses of the power sector. Finally, the policies to further enhance the implementation of carbon trading policies, strengthen effective governmental regulation, and escalate the deployment of renewable energy sources are recommended.

Macroeconomic Policy Adjustments on Environmental Protection Effectiveness Research - Based on the DSGE Model

Through the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model), this article explores the balance between economic development and environmental protection, focusing on the in-depth mutual influence among economic agents such as households, banks, producers, and government in promoting economic growth and achieving environmental protection. The model comprehensively considers factors such as production technology, carbon tax policies, bank loan rates, and government fiscal policies, aiming to analyze the specific impacts of these factors on economic growth, environmental protection, and social welfare. By detailed settings and analysis of consumption, savings, and labor supply decisions of households, the financial intermediary role of the banking sector, and carbon emissions and environmental technology use in the production sector, this study provides theoretical support for an environmentally friendly economic growth path. Through policy analysis, this article reveals the short-term and long-term effects of positive technological shocks, taxation on energy firms' loan rates, carbon tax policies, and government spending on the economy and the environment, providing a theoretical basis and reference for formulating relevant economic and environmental policies. The results indicate that appropriate macroeconomic policies can effectively promote economic growth while reducing carbon emissions and enhancing social welfare.

Carbon emissions cap or energy technology subsidies? Exploring the carbon reduction policy based on a multi-technology sectoral DSGE model

As global climate change becomes increasingly severe, energy technology innovation has become a key means of coping with the climate crisis and realizing green and low-carbon development. However, existing literature rarely examines the effects of carbon emission reduction policies based on the perspective of energy technology progress for both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term equilibrium. This paper introduces the fossil energy technology sector and the renewable energy technology sector into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and compares the effectiveness of the carbon emission cap policy, the fossil energy technology subsidy policy, and the renewable energy technology subsidy policy under the framework of China’s carbon trading market in promoting macroeconomic growth and controlling pollutant emissions. We found that in long-term, the emission reduction effect of the carbon emission cap policy falls short of the other two policies, and subsidizing fossil fuel technologies is more cost-efficient comparatively. The government expenditure shock can all stimulate macroeconomic growth with crowding out of private investment and household consumption, whereas the energy technology research productivity shock leads to a decline in total output and an increase in renewable energy technology demand. In addition, pollutant emissions are pro-cyclical under the impact of total carbon policies and counter-cyclical under the impact of energy technology subsidy policies. This article constructs a multi-technology sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, expanding the research perspective and theoretical framework for evaluating carbon emission reduction policies. At the same time, it proves the importance of the government to implement the phased energy technology subsidy policy while implementing the carbon emission cap policy, which provides important enlightenment for the implementation and adjustment of carbon emission reduction policy.

Digital economy and industrial structure transformation and income distribution

ABSTRACT Income distribution has become a serious challenge to China’s sustainable development. Previous studies have identified educational inequality and globalization as the most important reasons for increasing the imbalance in income distribution, but rarely have they examined the mechanism of the digital economy on income distribution from the perspective of industrial structural transformation. The theoretical study adopts a dynamic general equilibrium model containing about the production sector and the household sector, and by comparing the static equilibrium analysis, we get that the digital economy affects the flow of labour and capital and then industrial structure transformation, which ultimately affects the income distribution; in terms of the empirical evidence, we use the data of 37 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the period of 2011–2021, and we use the mediation effect model to determine the factors and mechanisms affecting the income distribution. The results of the study show that the level of digital economy development optimizes income distribution through rationalization of industrial structure and advanced industrial structure, and has a U-shaped characteristic of inhibiting income distribution first and then promoting it. The study expands the literature on income distribution and proposes future research directions.

How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?

AbstractIn this paper, the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic, demographic, sectoral and trade cost variables, the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes. The projections indicate that (i) because of projected reductions in trade costs, trade will grow more than GDP, generating a global trade‐to‐GDP growth rate of 1.1; (ii) because of structural change, the global share of manufacturing trade falls from 64% in 2020 to 52% by 2050, whereas the share of services trade rises substantially from 24% to 38%; and (iii) because of technological catch‐up, the share in global trade of both developing and least‐developed countries (LDCs) will rise (with developing countries overtaking developed economies around 2035), the share of intra‐developed country trade will fall, whereas the share of intra‐developing country trade and those between developing and developed countries will rise.

The employment effects of corporate income tax and the bargaining power of labor unions

This study analyzes how the relationship between corporate income tax and employment varies according to the bargaining power of labor unions. To this end, we use a dynamic general equilibrium model to examine corporate income tax and the bargaining power of labor unions based on a span-of-control model. Previous studies on the relationship between corporate income tax and employment are inconclusive and do not examine the role of the bargaining power of labor unions in this relationship. Calibrated results obtained using data from Korea show that a reduction in only the corporate income tax rate slightly decreases total employment, but a reduction in the corporate income tax rate accompanied by a decline in the bargaining power of labor unions significantly increases total employment.

GENERAL ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM MODELS

The article examines the possibilities and limitations of empirical models of general economic equilibrium and makes their classification. Computable general equilibrium models are divided into two groups: the first group is based on the equilibrium price model (G. Scarf's approach), the second is based on a multi-sectoral model of economic growth (L. Johansen's approach). Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models are also divided into two groups: the first group is based on the model of the real business cycle (the approach of F. Kydland and E. Prescott), the second is based on the model of various behavior of firms in conditions monopolistic competition (the approach of J. Rotemberg and M. Woodford). Within each group, empirical models were studied according to the following criteria: the scale of the economy, its openness; application for current and future assessments; socio-economic phenomenon under study.

Resilience of Saudi Arabia’s Economy to Oil Shocks: Effects of Economic Reforms

We assess the extent to which the implementation of Vision 2030 policies enhances the Saudi economy’s resilience to oil shocks. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that captures the country’s economic diversification policies, we build a resilience index based on impulse responses to shocks. The policies considered have two opposite effects: reforming domestic energy prices, deploying renewables and introducing a value-added tax increase the volatility of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas economic diversification policies stabilize the economy. Overall, with Vision 2030 the economy’s resilience to oil price shocks increases by 10 to 60 percent, depending on how labor market rigidities and the recycling of fiscal revenues are accounted for. Oil prices remain the main driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. Our analysis shows that an oil-exporting country should design policy packages that balance structural reforms with economic diversification, in order to shield its economy against oil shocks while generating long-term welfare gains. JEL Classification: D58, E13, E32, E37, E65, H30, H50, Q43

Capital Control Taxes in an Emerging Market Economy

Historically, Emerging Markets (EMs) that own foreign debt and exhibit a high degree of dollarization have demonstrated vulnerability to a range of both real and financial shocks. Governments often use a range of capital control measures, particularly in nations burdened with external debt, with the aim of mitigating sudden swings in both inflows and outflows of capital. These policies are implemented to lessen exchange rate volatility and prevent dollarization. This study employs second moments analysis, impulse response functions and the welfare analysis to investigate the impact of a tax policy that restricts international capital flows on several macroeconomic variables in an emerging economy. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is employed to examine the impact of the tax imposed on foreign borrowing on the economy, including both real shocks such as technology and growth, as well as financial shocks such as country risk premium. The findings of the study indicate that capital control taxes have a diminishing effect on the variability of significant macroeconomic variables, such as investment and consumption, when imposed at lower levels. Conversely, these taxes exhibit a stabilizing impact on the volatility of the trade balance-to-output ratio when implemented at higher levels. Moreover, quantitative evidence reveals that country risk premium shocks exert a substantial influence on variations in both the trade balance-to-output ratio and the level of investment, accounting for around 25% and 50% of the fluctuations, respectively. Finally, the existence of such a taxation enhances the intertemporal utility function at the steady state and reduces its volatility in the case of technology and growth shocks.

Analysis of the transmission of carbon taxes using a multi-sector DSGE

Carbon tax has attracted increasing attention as a means of curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While the implementation of carbon taxes necessarily involves consideration of the impact across different sectors and different periods, most existing studies use models which do not provide a detailed account of either sectoral interaction or the dynamic nature of the responses of households and firms. To fill this gap, we construct a New Keynesian multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an input–output structure of intermediate inputs and an investment network calibrated to Japan’s economy. We study the impact over time of carbon tax on different sectors, on aggregate GDP, and on GHG emissions. We then consider the long-term implications through a steady-state analysis, and the short- to medium-term implications by a simulation from 2020 to 2050, under various scenarios with different tax base compositions and announcement timings. We show that the impact on the trade-off between output and GHG emissions is importantly affected by inter-sectoral interactions among firms, and by the intertemporal decisions of households and firms. For example, an orderly implementation of carbon tax may mitigate a decline in value added of the most affected industry and the aggregate economy in 2050 by about 7% and 2% points, respectively, and contain an increase in the stock of GHG in 2050 by 3% points compared with the case of disorderly implementation. Also, keeping GHG emissions constant, GDP in 2050 can vary by 0.5% points depending on tax sources.