Dutch Referendum Research Articles

EU-sentiment predicts the 2016 Dutch referendum vote on the EU’s association with Ukraine better than concerns about Russia or national discontent

This article utilises large-N panel data to compare two theories of referendum voting behaviour in order to understand the ‘for’ or ‘against’ vote in the 2016 Dutch referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. It studies the extent to which voting behaviour was predicted by Eurosceptic attitudes and fear of upsetting Russia (issue-based theory), versus dissatisfaction with the Dutch government and general political discontent (second-order theory). Our findings indicate that issue-based determinants predict the referendum vote better than second-order predictors. However, Eurosceptic attitudes and government satisfaction both outperform concerns about the relationship with Russia as a predictor. We thus provide evidence that the issue-based and second-order approaches to explain voting in EU referendums are complementary, but not equal in explanatory strength.

Noes That Should Have Been Yeses: the Dutch Referendums Concerning the European Constitutional Treaty (2005) and the Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement (2016)

This article discusses two European referendums held in the Netherlands in 2005 and 2016 on the approval of the European Constitutional Treaty and the ratification of the Ukraine-European Union Association Agreement respectively. It investigates their backgrounds and outcomes and how they unfolded, drawing conclusions on striking similarities that can be discerned between them. In both cases, legislation that made the referendums possible was driven by ideas of popular involvement; the referendum campaigns were characterised by the discomfort of the political elite and the dominance of the no-camp; and they resulted in a popular rebuff, an outcome that the legislature could and would only very partially honour. The article demonstrates how the experience resulted in disillusionment, both for voters and politicians, and eventually led to the withdrawal of the corrective referendum bill.

The rise and fall of the Dutch referendum law (2015–2018): initiation, use, and abolition of the corrective, citizen-initiated, and non-binding referendum

In 2018, the Netherlands became the first democratic country to abolish its national referendum legislation. The Dutch referendum law of 2015–2018 allowed facultative, citizen-initiated, corrective, non-binding referendums, to veto specific types of laws passed by parliament. The referendum law included an ill-suited turnout threshold that created a strategic dilemma and a psychological side effect among voters. In the three years between introduction and abolition, two referendums were triggered. After the first referendum—a treaty between the EU and Ukraine, rejected by Dutch voters—support for referendums soured among centrist politicians and highly educated, progressive voters. Despite positive experiences with the second referendum, the legislation was abolished as part of the coalition agreement by the new government. This article provides a thick description of the Dutch referendum legislation trajectory (instigation, design, implementation, and abolition) to an international audience as well as a theoretical explanation of its comparatively late introduction and remarkably swift abolition. We discuss the roles of public opinion and coalition politics in the face of constitutional rigidity. Ultimately, we draw three broader theoretical lessons from the Dutch referendum experience.

Overclaiming Knowledge Predicts Anti-establishment Voting

People often vote against the political establishment, as underscored by “Brexit” and the Trump election. The current contribution proposes that overclaiming one’s own knowledge predicts anti-establishment voting. We tested this idea in the context of a Dutch referendum on a European Union treaty with a clear pro- versus anti-establishment voting option. In a first wave (6 weeks before the referendum), Dutch citizens indicated their self-perceived understanding of the treaty, after which we tested their actual knowledge. We also measured participants’ general tendency to overclaim knowledge by assessing their familiarity with nonexisting stimuli. In a second wave shortly after the referendum, we asked participants what they had voted. Results revealed that increased self-perceived understanding yet decreased actual knowledge of the treaty, and general knowledge overclaiming, predicted an anti-establishment vote. Furthermore, these effects were most pronounced among right-wing extremists. We conclude that knowledge overclaiming predicts anti-establishment voting, particularly at the radical right.

New media and strategic narratives: the Dutch referendum on Ukraine – EU Association Agreement in Ukrainian and Russian Internet blogs

ABSTRACTThis article analyses two confronting narratives authored by Ukrainian and Russian bloggers who reported the Dutch referendum held on 6 March 2016, and discussed Dutch citizens’ referendum vote on the Ukraine–EU Association Agreement. The considered narratives, addressed to the Ukrainian and Russian audiences respectively, are viewed as strategic because they specifically portray political actors of the referendum “drama” – the Netherlands, the European Union (EU), Ukraine and Russia. These actors are significant participants of European international relations, and their perceptions of one another are important for European security at the present time of critical diplomacy. In this paper, information about the DUTCH REFERENDUM obtained from the new media texts is regarded as a narrative-based political concept (NBPC). It is argued that this concept has different versions, or images that reflect the narrators’ biased perceptions imposed upon the public. Identification and comparison of such images require a particular methodology. Therefore, the objective of this paper is two-fold: to expose the two confronting versions of a strategically relevant political image, and to develop an authentic, interdisciplinary methodology for its analysis. The proposed methodology is informed by the ontology theory employed in cognitive science and cognitive linguistics.

The voice of populist people? Referendum preferences, practices and populist attitudes

Populist parties claim that democratic regimes fail to deliver results that are in line with what ‘the people’ want. To address this policy outcome failure, they favour direct democracy (especially when in opposition). Yet we do not know whether populists’ proposed solution—referendums—resonates with ‘the people’ it wishes to empower. This study fills this gap. First, we analyse to what extent citizens with populist attitudes favour referendums. Second, we analyse to what extent populist attitudes are linked to the decision to vote in the 2016 Dutch referendum about the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement. Third, we analyse to what extent these attitudes are linked to their vote choice. To answer these questions, we use the Dutch 2016 National Referendum Survey. Among others, we find that populist citizens are more likely to favour referendums and they are more likely to cast a ‘No’-vote, regardless of their party preference and trust in government.

Netherlands’ Media vs. Ukraine’s Communication Efforts: The Case of the Netherlands’ Referendum in 2016

Ukraine has redeclared its way to European integration which means the arrangement of not only the information campaign directed at the Ukrainians but the promotion campaign directed at foreign public. A serious communication challenge was caused by the advisory referendum in the Netherlands concerning the ratification of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement. Ukraine had to counteract the well-organized media campaign held by the Dutch Eurosceptics. The Ukraine’s communication efforts are analyzed within the context of the Dutch referendum, 2016.

The Politics of Avoiding Referendums on the Treaty of Lisbon

After the defeat of the Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe (TCE) in the French and Dutch referendums, governments across Europe had little appetite for popular votes on the Lisbon Treaty. Indeed, nine of the ten countries which were committed to (or had held) referendums on the TCE got around such votes on Lisbon. The article investigates how it was possible for governments in these nine countries to avoid putting the treaty to the people despite the precedent set by the TCE. It will be argued that three factors were crucial in this regard: first, the European-level collusion between governments; second, domestic political changes during the ‘period of reflection’: and third, governing strategies of depoliticising the decisions against referendums. Thus, the politics of avoiding referendums could only succeed due to the interplay between the determined agency of governments at the European and domestic levels and auspicious domestic contexts of ratification.

Spain’s Referendum on the European Constitutional Treaty: A Quantitative Analysis within the Conceptual Framework of First and Second Order Elections

In contrast to the attention devoted to the rejection of the EU Constitutional Treaty at French and Dutch referenda; the Spanish referendum, where this Treaty was ratified, remained under-researched by political scientists. This paper analyses the voting behaviour at the Spanish referendum on the EU Constitutional Treaty with the use of quantitative methods and the concept of first and second-order elections. This paper finds that the Spanish referendum was a second-order referendum, because the effects of domestic political issues in Spain had a greater impact on the electoral behaviour of Spanish voters than had genuinely European issues. This finding raises doubts over the suitability of using direct democracy in the EU in order to raise the legitimacy and democratic accountability of the European project.

Constitutionalism and Dissonances: Has Europe Paid Off Its Debt to Functionalism?

Abstract The negative outcomes of the French and Dutch referenda on the Constitutional Treaty have opened a period of profound constitutional disenchantment in relation to the EU. This impression seems confirmed by the recent Presidency Conclusions of the European Council which, although salvaging many important solutions contained in the Constitutional Treaty, explicitly sanction that ‘the constitutional concept . . . is abandoned’. In the light of this context, what role could the constitutional scholarship play? How to make sense of a polity in which the claims of constitutionalism as a form of power are politically unappealing though legally plausible? This article tries to respond to these questions by reaffirming functionalism as a valid analytical and normative perspective in facing the current constitutional reality of European integration. The analytical value associated with functionalism is evidenced by testing against the current context of the EU legal framework the accounts for EU constitutionalism which postulate functional equivalence between the EU and the Member States. The normative potential of functionalism, then, is discussed by arguing that there may be a value worth preserving in a degree of functional discrepancy between the EU and state constitutionalism and, notably, that the transformative and civilising dividend inherent in functionalism could still be exploited, at least in certain areas of EU policy making. Finally, the article suggests that the difficulties in accounting for EU constitutionalism in the light of state‐centred constitutional theory could be regarded as symptoms of European integration marking a moment in the theoretical evolution of constitutionalism.

Onafhankelijke referendumcommissies: kenmerkend voor de Nederlandse consensusdemocratie

Since the nineties of the last century, there has been a modest rise of local referendums in the Netherlands. This article describes the important role played by independent local referendum committees, one of the most remarkable characteristics of the recent Dutch referendum experience. Their task is among others to advice about the wording of the question, to supervise the organisation of the referendum and the campaign and to handle complaints. The need to use an independent body to support the referendum process is missing in countries as Switzerland and the United States. The lack of referendum experience and the lack of confidence in Dutch local authorities forced them to introduce independent local referendum bodies. The role of these institutions fits in the traditions of the Dutch consensus democracy to engage experts to depoliticise delicate political problems.

Reversed Mobilization in Referendum Campaigns

This multimethodological study focuses on risk-induced electoral mobilization in referendum campaigns. Positive news framing in a referendum campaign can generate a perception of risk among those voters opposing the proposal and stimulate electoral participation to prevent an undesired outcome that would alter a status quo situation. To test this claim, the authors analyze the effect of news framing on turnout in the context of the 2005 Dutch EU Constitution referendum campaign and combine a media content analysis of national newspapers and television news ( n = 6,370) with panel survey data ( n = 642) and an experiment ( n = 687). Experimental findings show that individuals who are skeptical toward the EU and are subsequently exposed to positive news framing about the EU Constitution are mobilized to turn out and vote against it. The results of the content analysis show that during the Dutch referendum campaign, news media framed the EU Constitution in positive terms. Building these findings into a measure of news exposure in our panel survey, the authors find that higher exposure to referendum news had a mobilizing effect on those opposing the proposal. The experimental and panel data thus show corroborating evidence supporting the central hypothesis about how positive news can mobilize the skeptics to turn out and vote in a referendum.

THE EU CONSTITUTION IS DEAD, LONG LIVE THE REFORM TREATY: No early funeral for the institutional innovations in the Constitutional Treaty after being rejected in France and the Netherlands

At its meeting on 16 June 2005, the European Council decided to postpone its introduction of the European Constitution, originally planned to come into force on 1 November 2006. As the Treaty establishing a European Constitution could in principle only take effect if all the Member States agree, following the clear rejections in the French referendum on 29 May 2005 (55% against) and the Dutch referendum on 1 June 2005 (61.5% against), the Member States needed a period of reflection, a search for explanations and debate. The European Council did not feel that the date initially planned for a report on the ratification of the treaty was still tenable, since those countries which had not yet ratified the treaty would be unable to provide a clear reply before mid- 2007. But the process of ratification by the Member States was not abandoned. The timetable was adjusted to reflect the circumstances in the countries which had not yet ratified the treaty. This period was intended to regain the trust of the general public (see Defargues 2005, 97).

The Paradox of Constituent Power. The Ambiguous Self‐Constitution of the European Union

Abstract. The French and Dutch referenda on the adoption of a European Constitutional Treaty highlight a remarkable ambiguity in the self‐constitution of a polity, which can be viewed as both constitution by and of a collective self. This ambiguity is a fundamental feature of polities in general, and the European Union in particular. Rather than suppressing this ambiguity, democracy—and a fortiori a European democracy worth its name—institutionalises it as the guiding principle of political action. As will transpire, the conceptual and normative problems raised by political self‐constitution are linked to self‐attribution, i.e., the conditions under which a collective ascribes legislation to itself.

The Austrian Presidency: Pragmatic Management

When Austria took over the Council Presidency on 1 January 2006, the European Union (EU) found itself at a crossroads following the French and Dutch rejection of the Constitutional Treaty in 2005. The ratification crisis was, however, only one of those unexpected events which jeopardized the new three-year programme for the six presidencies from 2004 to 2006, invented to ensure greater coherence and consistency in the leadership of the EU. While such a programme limits the scope of activity and priorities of a given presidency, it is no substitute for active leadership in critical cases. Hence, a presidency has to be evaluated, first, with regard to the management of the routine matters handed over by previous presidencies; second, with regard to its own priorities; and, third, by its responses to crises. How a presidency manages to deal with these dimensions is influenced by the nature of internal EU challenges, international developments and the domestic politics of the country holding the presidency. The EU faced a series of considerable internal challenges during the Austrian presidency. Shortly after the negative French and Dutch referendums on the Constitutional Treaty, the European Council decided to start a period of reflection that, after several months, had not produced impressive results. Moreover, though governments considered the conclusion of the financial perspective for 2007–13 a success, in January 2006 the European Parliament (EP) overwhelmingly rejected the compromise worked out among the EU JCMS 2007 Volume 45 Annual Review pp. 7–16

Organising for Nation Building

As countries and international institutions become increasingly involved in nation-building efforts, committing personnel and resources for prolonged periods of time, they often face major capabili...

Who’s Cueing Whom?

The 2005 French and Dutch referendum campaigns were characterized by an alleged disconnect between pro-European political elites and Eurosceptic masses. Past evidence regarding elite-mass linkages in the context of European integration has been conflicting. Whereas some scholars argue that political elites respond to the changing preferences of their electorates, others suggest that party elites cue the mass public through a process of information and persuasion. We contend that these conflicting results stem from the reciprocal nature of elite-mass linkages and estimate a series of dynamic simultaneous equations models to account for this reverse causation. Using Euro-barometer and expert survey data from 1984-2002, we find evidence of a dual-process model, whereby party elites both respond to and shape the views of their supporters. We also find that the strength of these results is contingent on several factors, including the type of electoral system, intra-party dissent and voter characteristics.

A Short and Obscure or Clear and Detailed Constitution' Perspectives for the Simplification of the Treaties and the Rationalisation of the Legal Order of the European Union (Une Constitution Courte et Obscure ou Claire et Detaillee' Perspectives Pour la Simplification des Traites et la Rationalisation de l'Ordre Juridique de l'Union Europeenne)

The paper examines the possibility to keep the acquis of the Constitutional Treaty in terms of simplification of the EC-EU treaties and of rationalisation of the EU legal system if the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe were not to be ratified in the form it has been signed on 29 October 2004. The basic assumption of the paper is that contrary to what is too often said, not only the length of the treaty may not be seen as a primary cause of its rejection in the French and Dutch referendums of 2005, but also that a shorter treaty might not serve better the objective of clarity than a longer one. Five basic elements are being identified as the European Convention's acquis which should be maintained in the future: the suppression of the pillar structure, the integration of the Charter of fundamental right in the EU fundamental treaty, the reorganisation of the treaties - as done in part III of the Constitution for Europe - the typology of legal instruments of the Union and the typology of competences. While acknowledging that a number of formal, technical and political improvements could further be added to the existing text, which could also formally be split in two if necessary, the paper is rather sceptical about the political feasibility of scenarios which would not be based on the ratification of the existing European Constitution's content.

Taking Cues on Europe? Voter competence and party endorsements in referendums on European integration

Abstract. One of the criticisms often levelled against direct democracy is that citizens lack sufficient knowledge to vote directly on policy issues. The ‘No’ votes in the French and Dutch referendums on the Constitutional Treaty have highlighted the importance of examining voter competence in referendums. This article proposes a theoretical framework for evaluating competence in EU referendums. It suggests that competent voting in EU referendums is based on issue‐specific preferences and requires political information. Since most voters have little detailed knowledge of European integration, they rely on heuristics and cues when deciding how to vote. The important question is how much and which type of information voters require to make competent choices. This article examines whether and under what conditions the use of party endorsements as information cues can enhance competent voting in EU referendums. These theoretical questions are examined in an analysis of the 1994 Norwegian referendum on EU membership.

Constitutionalism and Dissonances: Has Europe Paid Off its Debt to Functionalism?

The negative outcomes of the French and Dutch referenda on the Constitutional Treaty have opened a period of profound constitutional disenchantment in relation to the EU. This impression seems confirmed by the recent Presidency Conclusions of the European Council which, although salvaging many important solutions contained in the Constitutional Treaty, explicitly sanction that the constitutional concept...is abandoned. In the light of this context, what role could the constitutional scholarship play? How to make sense of a polity in which the claims of constitutionalism as a form of power are politically unappealing though legally plausible? This article tries to respond to these questions by reaffirming functionalism as a valid analytical and normative perspective in facing the current constitutional reality of European integration. The analytical value associated with functionalism is evidenced by testing against the current context of the EU legal framework the accounts for EU constitutionalism which postulate functional equivalence between the EU and the Member States. The normative potential of functionalism, then, is discussed by arguing that there may be a value worth preserving in a degree of functional discrepancy between the EU and state constitutionalism and, notably, that the transformative and civilising dividend inherent in functionalism could still be exploited, at least in certain areas of EU policy making. Finally, the article suggests that the difficulties in accounting for EU constitutionalism in the light of state-centred constitutional theory could be regarded as symptoms of European integration marking a moment in the theoretical evolution of constitutionalism.