Dutch Disease Effects Research Articles

Remittances and competitiveness: a case study on Armenia and Georgia

Remittances play an important role in the economies of remittance-reliant Armenia and Georgia as they alleviate poverty and provide foreign currency. In addition to such positive contributions, remittances can produce harmful effects on the economies that receive them. The author investigates the Dutch disease effect of remittances in these small economies by measuring the impact of remittances on real exchange rates and exports by applying a vector autoregressive model. The study covers the period 2000 Q1–2019 Q4 and analyses the relationship between the remittances, real effective exchange rate, exports, and gross domestic product. The results indicate that remittances produce appreciating effects on real exchange rates in both countries but a week negative effect on exports only in Armenia.

The enclave hypothesis and Dutch disease effect: A critical appraisal of Mali's gold mining industry

The main purpose of this paper is to test whether there are significant backward linkages from gold mining to manufacturing in Mali over the period 1982–2017. The analysis also examines the relevance of the ‘Dutch disease’ effect in Mali, where the discovery and exploitation of natural resources lead to a real exchange rate appreciation and a subsequent contraction of the manufacturing sector. Related studies on Mali are scarce, but those that do exist find support for Singer's enclave hypothesis, which states that mining is disconnected from the rest of the economy. A novel feature of the empirical strategy adopted in this paper relative to previous research is that we use both survey data collected from fieldwork and a vector error-correction model (VECM) to test for linkage effects and the Dutch disease hypothesis. The evidence shows that there are significant and persistent backward linkages from gold mining to manufacturing in Mali, thus providing a more optimistic view than the enclave hypothesis of previous research. The survey data, backed up by the econometric evidence, find that both gold mining companies and local suppliers are eager to do business with each other, and that both expect to strengthen their business ties in the near future. At the same time, however, the evidence suggests that there remains ample scope to strengthen backward linkages. We draw on the survey data analysis to suggest several practical policy measures. The econometric evidence rejects the Dutch disease hypothesis. The significant long-run effect of the real exchange rate on manufacturing output, however, provides another channel through which natural resource windfalls could boost industrial development in Mali. Overall, the evidence suggests that the natural resource sector can play a significant role to initiate industrial development, and that government policy is a key conduit to establish and strengthen backward linkages.

Foreign aid, public investment, and the informal economy

AbstractThis paper examines the absorption of foreign aid in the presence of formal and informal production. Calibrating a two‐sector open economy model to 67 aid‐recipient countries for 1990–2019, we show that an increase in foreign aid drives resources into the informal sector, and away from the formal sector. With untied aid, the expansion of the informal sector can lead to an economic contraction through the Dutch Disease effect. An economic expansion with an increase in the share of formal production can be attained by re‐allocating existing aid to public investment rather than an increase in the aggregate level of aid.

Oil revenue and agriculture value-added in oil-exporting countries: does the role of real exchange rate matter?

Purpose This study aims to investigate the contingent roles real effective exchange rates (REERs) play in mediating the effects of oil revenue on the agriculture sector value-added in 25 major and minor oil-exporting (MIOEC) countries during the period of 1975–2014. Design/methodology/approach The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimator proposed by Pesaran et al. (1999) was relied upon to achieve the objectives of the study. This estimator involves a pool of small cross-sectional units over a long-time span that covers for 25 oil-exporting countries over 39 years (1975–2014). Findings This paper reveals the following findings. Firstly, oil revenue has a direct negative effect on agricultural value-added in the short- and long-term. This finding holds for full sample and subsamples of major oil-exporting (MAOEC) and MIOEC countries. Further assessment reveals that the magnitude of the impact is larger for MAOEC than that of the MIOEC. Secondly, the finding for the long-run effect shows that the contingent effect of real exchange rate on the nexus between oil revenue and agricultural value-added is negative and statistically significant at the conventional level for the full sample. This suggests that, in the long-run, the appreciation in real exchange rates exacerbate the negative marginal effects of oil revenue on agricultural value-added in all oil-exporting countries. However, when sub-samples of MAOEC and MIOEC are considered, the contingent effect disappeared (become insignificant) in MAOEC while it is positive and statistically significant in MIOEC. Thus, in the long-run, the appreciation in real exchange rates diminishes the negative marginal effects of oil revenue on agricultural value-added in MIOEC. While oil revenue has a direct negative effect, its effect is also moderated by the variations in REERs in MIOEC in the long-run. Finally, in the short-run, fluctuations in the real exchange rate do not matter for the nexus of oil revenue and agriculture sector in these countries whether minor or MAOEC countries. Originality/value This study contributes to the debate in the empirical literature on the Dutch disease effect and “oil curse”. Using the appropriate panel ARDL empirical framework, it provides evidence on how exchange rate variations in the oil-exporting countries influence the nature of the effects of the oil revenue on agricultural sectors in the long-run but not in the short-run. Contingent effects of REERs only appear to exist in MIOEC in the long-run.

Australia’s Forgotten Copper Mining Boom: Understanding How South Australia Avoided Dutch Disease, 1843–1850

Great Britain established the new colony of South Australia (SA) in 1834, and migration from Britain to the colony began in 1836. After seven turbulent years, the discovery of two large deposits of copper at Kapunda (1843–4) and Burra (1844–5) renewed the colony’s economic prospects. Over the 1845–50 period, SA supplied roughly 9 per cent of the world’s copper production. Immigration to SA from Britain soared, with the colony’s population more than tripling between 1844 and 1851. We use the Beine–Coulombe–Vermeulen model of an economy with a booming resource sector to frame our empirical investigation of the boom’s effects on the export of other traded goods and worker living standards. Using newly developed SA wage and price series for this period, we find that immigration mitigated and offset some Dutch disease effects: there were just modest increases in SA living standards, increases in the export of wool and wheat, and a larger share in production for non‐traded goods. Finally, we conclude that the decision by Governor Grey to force broad ownership of the ‘monster’ Burra mine and the use of revenues from land sales to subsidise immigration helped SA avoid the corruption and rent‐seeking associated with other resource booms.

Myanmar’s Manufacturing Exports After the Lifting of Economic Sanctions

This article aims to evaluate Myanmar’s exports of manufacturing products by using a gravity trade model for emerging ASEAN economies. The main focus of this study is to assess whether Myanmar’s manufacturing exports have recovered in terms of the gravity trade standard of the other emerging ASEAN countries for the post-sanction period of 2013–2018. Unlike the previous studies, this article contributes to the literature by targeting the post-sanction period and by applying both in-sample and out-of-sample estimation methods to ensure the consistency and robustness of their results. The main findings from the gravity trade model estimation are summarised as follows: first, Myanmar’s manufacturing exports for the post-sanction period are still significantly below the level of the gravity trade standard. Second, the downward deviation from the standard could be explained by the two Myanmar-specific factors, that is, the low institutional quality and the Dutch Disease effect in Myanmar’s exports to Western countries, but not fully in those to Asian countries. The additional factor for the deviation against Asian countries might come from Myanmar’s sluggish participation in the international production networks. JEL Codes: F14, O53

Dutch Disease Effects in the Azerbaijan Economy: Results of Multivariate Linear Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Estimations

This paper investigates the increased role of extractive industry, particularly oil and gas, within the Dutch disease model between 2000-2018 in the Azerbaijan economy. Dutch disease phenomenon befalls when the national economy produces and exports a single commodity or a particular sector becomes the booming sector. Increased exports of particular goods and spendings of the accumulated mineral revenue appreciate the national currency, decreasing the competitiveness and thus the production or export volume of the non-booming sectors. Azerbaijan is an oil and gas-rich country which naturally actualizes the existence of Dutch disease syndrome . Therefore, the purpose of this research is to separately reveal the Dutch disease effects of resource movement and spending effects based on the theoretical frame­ work constructed from the core theory. The paper contains a comprehensive literature review and overall macroeconomic screening of the Azerbaijan economy to describe the preconditions of Dutch disease. Then, the study employs 42 multivariate linear ordinary least squares (OLS) estimations. The estimated models illustrate the presence of indirect de-industrialization (one form of resource movement effect) and the spending effect of the Dutch disease hypothesis. However, the paper does not find a direct negative influence of booming sectors on aggregated lagging (i.e., manufacturing and agriculture) and non-tradable sectors (services). Moreover, va­riables such as oil price growth rates, real effective exchange rate (REER), nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), and economic crisis periods failed to significantly explain the employment and real wages dynamics. However, these variables described certain influence channels in output and returns on capital growth rates. This paper sheds light on the interconnections between the Azerbaijan economy’s labor resources, government spending, and monetary channels. These interconnections indicate that the Dutch disease hypothesis holds true for Azerbaijan. Of the estimated OLS coefficients, 90.5% were highly stable, which suggests that the results are reliable. This study mainly tests the general theoretical expectations of the original Dutch disease model and presents a common ground to conceptualize the possible harmful effects of the booming oil and gas sectors in Azerbaijan. Any causal derivations should be handled carefully.

Foreign Aid, Public Investment, and the Informal Economy

This paper uses a two-sector open economy model to examine the dynamic absorption of foreign aid in the presence of both formal and informal production. Calibrating the model to yield a long-run equilibrium consistent with sample averages for 72 aid-recipient developing countries for the period 1990-2017, we show that an increase in foreign aid impacts the sectoral composition of the recipient economy, driving resources into the informal sector, and away from the formal sector. Further, if aid is untied (say, provided for general budget support), then the expansion of the informal sector can lead to a contraction of the aggregate economy through the Dutch Disease effect. If the recipient government’s objective is to drive an economic expansion by increasing the share of formal production, then re-allocating existing aid to public investment is more effective than an increase in the aggregate level of aid.

Pakistan: Withholdingization of the Economic System - A Source of Revenue, Civil Strife, or Dutch Disease+?

The paper takes an incisive shot at the systemic inadequacies that have tiptoed into the economic order of the state over time via the apparently innocuous mechanism of withholding taxes. Withholding tax – a legitimate instrument of preponing the state revenues on clearly identifiable chunks of incomes – has historically been resorted to by most states, and to that extent it should be normal with Pakistan, too. However, what has happened in Pakistan is that the tool of withholding taxation has been used as a source of revenues way too large in scale, size, scope and intensity. In addition to the pulling forward of tax collection on clearly demarcated chunks of incomes, a large number of transactions have also been roped into its nexus and then charged to tax by presumptivizing gross receipts as income – a withholdingization of the sorts not only of the tax system but of the entire economic system as a weighty portion of ubiquitous withholding taxes gets stuck into the pricing structure of the final goods and services produced in the economy rendering them price-incompetitive in the international market. This overwhelming withholdingization of the economic system, it is argued, has been brought about by a numb state continually operating under, using a Freudian framework, the “pleasure principle” instead of the “reality principle” with political governments complacently choosing to continue harvesting quick bucks into the exchequer, pushing the extractive system into a total disarray, the society into burgeoning civil strife, and the economy to the Dutch Disease effect.

The regional Dutch disease effect within China: A spatial econometric investigation

Abstract As one of the primary causes of the resource curse effect, the “Dutch disease” effect (DDE) at the national level has been widely explored by previous studies. However, a special investigation on the existence and mechanism of the regional DDE within China, the largest developing country in the world, is still absent. Using the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions in China over 1994–2016, this paper for the first time employs the spatial Durbin model to examine the existence and two mechanisms (i.e., the resource movement effect (RME) and the spending effect (SE)) of the regional DDE within China. In particular, to highlight the spatial effect of the DDE and to obtain robust results, we use two kinds of spatial weight matrices in the spatial Durbin model: a traditional symmetric geographical distance weight matrix and a novel asymmetric mixed geography-economy weight matrix. The results show that natural resource sector boom has a negative effect on the development of both local and neighboring manufacturing sectors within China, suggesting that the regional DDE exists at China's provincial level. We also find that the DDE is mainly caused by the energy sector boom and is not evident in both metallic and non-metallic mineral sectors. Additionally, eastern China, central China, and western China all show the symptom of the DDE. Both eastern China and central China show a significantly negative direct effect and an insignificant indirect effect of resource sector boom, while both the direct and indirect effects of resource sector boom are evident in western China. Moreover, the RME and the SE are all responsible for the appearance of the regional DDE within China. On the one hand, resource sector boom induces labor and capital mobility from manufacturing to mining in both local and neighboring regions. On the other hand, resource sector boom raises inflation level in both local and neighboring regions. Finally, based on these findings, we provide some policy recommendations for relieving and avoiding the regional DDE.

Towards an effective fiscal stimulus: Evidence from Botswana

While there is a general agreement on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus, there is no consensus on which stimulus is better. To address this concern, this paper uses a Dynamic Stochastic General ...

The effect of Dutch disease in the tourism sector: the case of Mediterranean countries

Purpose – A flourishing tourism sector can produce the same increase in income as that from natural resource exports. Unlike the oil, gas, and mineral extraction industries, which cause depletion of natural resources, the tourism industry has the potential to become a renewable industry, if well managed. In this context, the aim of this study is to investigate the existence of the Dutch disease effect in Mediterranean countries with high tourism dependence. Design – The data set used in this study was from 1996-2015, and it was obtained from the 2017 World Development Indicator [WDI] database. The logarithms of all variables were added to the model. In the study, 17 selected Mediterranean countries (Albania, Algeria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Croatia, Egypt, France, Greece, Italy, Israel, Lebanon, Malta, Morocco, Slovenia, Spain, Tunisia, and Turkey) were used. Methodology – In the study, the methods used by Figini and Vici (2009), Holzner (2011), Ghalia and Fidrmuc (2015) are followed. In addition, Panel AMG, CCE co-integration estimators were used. Findings –The panel data analysis results for the country group imply that the Dutch disease does not exist overall but, on the other hand, the country based results reveal existence of the Dutch disease in some of the Mediterranean countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Morocco, and Turkey). Originality of the Research – The originality of this study is twofold. First of all, to our knowledge, this is the first study investigating the Dutch disease in the Mediterranean countries. Moreover, the study employs recently developed panel data econometric methods and allows us to get results for each economy separately, unlike conventional panel data analysis methods. Therefore, we predict that this study will make an important contribution to the literature.

Workers’ Remittances and the Dutch Disease: Evidence From South Asian Countries

Large inflows of foreign money into a country can appreciate its domestic currency, which can adversely affect its current account balance. South Asian countries receive a significant amount of foreign currency as remittances. In this paper, we examine the Dutch disease effect of remittances in five South Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using panel data from 1975 to 2014. Panel cointegration test provides evidence of the long-run relationship between remittances and the real exchange rate. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares Method (FMOLS) is used to estimate the impact of remittances on real exchange rates. The findings suggest that remittances do appreciate the real exchange rate in South Asia. Pesaran, Shin, and Smith ([1999]. Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 621–634) Pool Mean Group (PMG) estimation technique is used to check the robustness of the findings. The PMG test results confirm the findings from the FMOLS.

The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Absorptive Capabilities on the Economic Growth of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic

The paper examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the economic growth of Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) between 1993 and 2015. The investigation is based on the influence of growth and economic absorptive capability determinants such as human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality. The methodological analysis uses a multivariate framework accounting capital stock, labor stock, FDI, human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality in regression of the Vector Autoregressive model. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality test were applied as parts of the econometric time-series analysis approach. The empirical results demonstrate the positive effects of FDI and trade openness, and the negative effects of human capital and institutional quality on the economic growth of the Lao PDR over the 1993 to 2015 period. The findings confirm that trade openness complemented by a sufficient level of infrastructure, education, quality institutions, and transparency significantly influence economic growth and attract more FDI. Research results lend credence to the need for the Lao PDR's government to focus on improving its economic absorptive capability and economic competitiveness regionally and globally by improving wealth and resource management strategies, as failure to take this course of action could lead to the Dutch Disease effects.

Immigration and the Dutch disease A counterfactual analysis of the Norwegian resource boom 2004-2013

We study how labour migration modified the Dutch disease effects during the Norwegian resource boom 2004–2013. In these years the resource movement effect of the petroleum industry was larger than the spending effect. This was mainly due to the introduction of a fiscal policy rule in 2001 that limited spending. The EU-enlargement in 2004 increased labour migration and affected also the Norwegian labour market. We find that economic growth in Norway was roughly doubled from 2004 to 2013 because of the resource boom while total population increased by 2% because of higher immigration. Moreover, both the resource movement and spending effects on Mainland GDP were roughly unaffected by immigration while employment increased, real wages fell and so did productivity. The negative effects of the boom on industries producing tradables were counteracted by endogenous terms of trade effects, immigration and demand effects of the boom.

What do we know about export diversification in oil-producing countries?

Oil-exporting countries are often advised to diversify their economies, yet surprisingly little is known about how this can be done. Research on this issue has been constrained by missing and inconsistent data, selection bias, and the use of uninformative measures of diversification. This paper uses a novel measure of export concentration from the IMF to describe diversification trends between 1962 and 2010 among the 38 largest oil producers. It documents three empirical patterns: a rising gap in export diversification between oil-producing states and non-oil states; the heightened concentration of exports in most oil and mineral producing states from 1980 to 2010; and the heterogeneous performances of the oil producers over the long run. Four striking patterns stand out: the oil exporters have developed the most narrowly-specialized economies in the global market, making them uniquely vulnerable to price shocks; among the oil exporters, the African states have the poorest diversification record; successful diversification is broadly associated with lower levels of oil wealth, which is consistent with a Dutch Disease effect; and success is not strongly associated with population, government effectiveness or democratic accountability.

Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

This paper assesses the optimal setting of fiscal spending and foreign exchange rate intervention policies in response to volatile foreign aid, in a small open economy model that incorporates typical features of low-income countries. Within a class of policy rules, it jointly considers the optimal aid spending and international reserve accumulation policies. The results show that it is optimal to adjust government spending gradually in response to unpredictable fluctuations in aid, while partially accumulating foreign exchange reserves to offset Dutch disease effects. Also, allocating relatively more of the government spending to productive public investment, and less to government consumption, is welfare improving.

Impact of International Remittance Inflows on Nigeria’s Trade Balance

AbstractWhile international remittance inflow is globally recognized as a key source of income for improved standard of living and poverty reduction, there is an ongoing intellectual debate that persistent remittance inflow causes deterioration in trade balances, by inducing import-led consumption expenditures, especially in developing countries like Nigeria. The study investigated the impact of international remittance inflows on Nigeria’s trade balances from 1990 to 2016. The study uses the contemporary econometric techniques of Zivot-Andrew (ZA) structural break unit root test, as well as the Gregory- Hansen cointegration test that allows for a single most significant unknown structural break in both the intercept and the entire coefficient vectors. The results show that remittance inflows to Nigeria have significant negative effect on trade balance, meaning that the Dutch disease effect of remittance inflows prevails in Nigeria. Based on this finding, the study recommends that the remittance inflows to Nigeria should follow the channel of private savings which, in turn, is released to productive domestic investment in order to expand the pool of manufactured products. This will definitely overcome the Dutch disease symptom being experienced in Nigeria.

Do Migrant Remittances Cause Dutch Disease in Nigeria?

AbstractStatistics show that remittances inflow to Nigeria grew from US$3,000,000 in 1978 to over US$22 billion in 2017. Theoretically, such a large inflow of foreign currency into an economy may lead to Dutch diseases. This study, therefore, investigated whether the massive inflow of remittances into the economy causes Dutch disease. Given that the model had both I(0) and I(1) variables, ARDL/Bound testing methodology was used with annual data from 1981 to 2016. The ARDL result showed that migrant remittances have a significant positive effect on the real effective exchange rate in Nigeria in the long run. Specifically, a one per cent increase in the inflows of remittances increases the real effective exchange rate of Naira by 0.44 per cent in the long run. This appreciation of the Nigerian Naira relative to other competing nations encourages import and discourages export, leading to the Dutch disease effect.

Remittances and the Dutch disease: evidence from Georgia

ABSTRACTIn this article, using the VECM model we attempt to empirically examine the Dutch disease effect of remittances in Georgia. The analyses are based on quarterly data covering the years 2000–2016. It is found that an inflow of remittances leads to an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate in the long run, whereas it has the reverse effect in the short run.