Export Duration Research Articles

Export Growth and Credit Constraints

We investigate the effect of credit constraints on the growth of exports at the micro level. We develop a stylized dynamic model showing credit constraints play a key role in early stages of exporting, but not in later stages. Our empirical results using product level data on exports to twelve European Union members and the U.S. support the model's predictions: exports from more credit constrained and riskier exporters grow faster. Export growth rates decrease with duration and converge across countries. While an important force in early stages, credit constraints affect export growth much less as the duration of exports increases.

A carbon budget for a naturally iron fertilized bloom in the Southern Ocean

Subantarctic islands in the high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) Southern Ocean are natural sources of iron and stimulate blooms in their proximity, such as the one observed close to the Crozet Islands (52°E, 46°S). During 2004/2005, particulate organic carbon (POC) export was measured using the 234Th technique in the Crozet bloom and compared with an HNLC control region. Initial results showed that iron release had no effect on daily POC export rates, thus any iron-driven enhancement in POC export was due to a longer export phase in the bloom region when compared to the control region. The duration of the export event was empirically estimated by closing the silicon budget, thus allowing seasonal POC export to be calculated by applying the export duration to the daily rates of POC export. This yields a seasonal estimate of POC export that is 3.6 times larger (range 1.9–7.1) in the iron-fertilized region than in the HNLC control region. These estimates of POC export were then compared to independent estimates of organic matter storage in the upper ocean, which are significant in both the HNLC and control regions. Overall, integrated POC export was significantly (approximately 50%) lower than estimated seasonal new production, the fraction of production that is supported by inputs of new nutrients. Finally, the sequestration efficiency, the numerical relationship between the supply of the limiting nutrient, iron, and the key ecosystem function of POC export at 100 m, is estimated to be 16,790 mol:mol.

The Role of NAFTA and Returns to Scale in Export Duration

While exports within NAFTA face a lower hazard of ceasing, its onset has increased the hazard for Mexican and U.S. intra NAFTA exports. Intra NAFTA exports still enjoy a lower hazard relative to exports to non--members. While NAFTA did affect the hazard for Canada's exports in the short run, its effect on Mexican and U.S. exports is persistent. Exports of IRS manufacturing products face the highest hazard in the case of Canada and Mexico, while IRS natural resource products have the highest hazard for Mexico. The effect of NAFTA on the returns to scale product types is exporter specific.

Heteroscedastic Transformation Models With Covariate Dependent Censoring

In this article we propose an inferential procedure for transformation models with conditional heteroscedasticity in the error terms. The proposed method is robust to covariate dependent censoring of arbitrary form. We provide sufficient conditions for point identification. We then propose an estimator and show that it is √n-consistent and asymptotically normal. We conduct a simulation study that reveals adequate finite sample performance. We also use the estimator in an empirical illustration of export duration, where we find advantages of the proposed method over existing ones.

Duration of trade of former communist countries in the EU market

This article analyses the duration of exports of individual products of former communist countries to the enlarged European Union (EU25) employing survival analysis. The results show that the duration of trade differs across EU10 and EU15 markets: for the majority of countries the length of trade is greater in EU10 markets than in EU15 markets. The estimations suggest that differentiated products are traded for more extended periods than homogeneous products. In addition, trade relationships starting with large initial sales are more likely to survive the observed five-year period than those starting with small values. Finally, the estimations are robust to both markets segments.