Estimates Of Duration Research Articles

An Explorative Study on Social Media Blocking in Indonesia

The internet access blocking to the highly used Social Media platform was a new Indonesian government occurrence. Even though it was for a good purpose and did not block full access, it triggered many protests toward the Government. This study aims to get Indonesian's perspective toward Social Media blocking regarding the reasons, the Government's action, and their readiness if there is no Social Media blocking. Convenience survey sampling was conducted to acquire quantitative and qualitative data among Indonesians. The results indicate that Indonesian favored Social Media blocking if it has clear reasons and not ready if the Government held none of such action. They also demand the Government to provide notification, duration estimation, and guaranteed access to mainstream media. However, they object to Social Media blocking if the motives are regarding freedom of politics, religions, and sexual orientation issues.

Initial stay times for uncompensable occupational heat stress in young and older men: a preliminary assessment.

During uncompensable occupational heat stress, heat-mitigation controls are required to prevent core temperature exceeding recommended limits (≥38 °C). However, the initial stay time before employing controls remained unknown. We estimated these times for moderate-intensity work at 26, 28, 30, and 32 °C wet-bulb globe temperatures (WBGT) in 50 young (18-30 years) and older (50-70 years), non-heat acclimatized men. Initial stay time was 111 min at 26 °C WBGT and declined exponentially to 44 min at 32 °C WBGT. Novelty: We provide estimates of the moderate-intensity work duration before heat-mitigation is required in wet-bulb globe temperatures between 26-32 °C for young and older, non-heat acclimatized men.

Long-Term Monitoring of the Antibody Response to a SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

A group of 110 patients from the West Bohemian region who had been infected with COVID-19 was monitored for the purposes of this study. We focused on cases of mild or moderate COVID-19; statistically the most likely to occur. Day zero was defined as the day on which a positive PCR test was first established. The mean length of observation was 6.5 months, the maximum length 12 months. The first blood samples were taken from a smaller cohort during the 1–3 months following the first positive PCR test. We assumed that SARS-CoV-2 antibodies would be present during this period and therefore a limited number of samples were taken for the purpose of detecting antibodies. More samples were collected, starting 4 months after the first positive PCR test. A subsequent set of blood samples were drawn, mostly 6 months after the first ones. Our study confirmed the presence of total IgG SARS-CoV-2 antibodies up to 1 year after the onset of the disease. The peak of antibody production was observed in the third month after the first positive PCR test. A mathematical estimate of the median duration of antibody positivity was calculated to be 18 months from the onset of the COVID-19 infection.

Temporal Alignment but not Complexity of Audiovisual Stimuli Influences Crossmodal Duration Percepts.

Reliable duration perception is an integral aspect of daily life that impacts everyday perception, motor coordination, and subjective passage of time. The Scalar Expectancy Theory (SET) is a common model that explains how an internal pacemaker, gated by an external stimulus-driven switch, accumulates pulses during sensory events and compares these accumulated pulses to a reference memory duration for subsequent duration estimation. Second-order mechanisms, such as multisensory integration (MSI) and attention, can influence this model and affect duration perception. For instance, diverting attention away from temporal features could delay the switch closure or temporarily open the accumulator, altering pulse accumulation and distorting duration perception. In crossmodal duration perception, auditory signals of unequal duration can induce perceptual compression and expansion of durations of visual stimuli, presumably via auditory influence on the visual clock. The current project aimed to investigate the role of temporal (stimulus alignment) and nontemporal (stimulus complexity) features on crossmodal, specifically auditory over visual, duration perception. While temporal alignment revealed a larger impact on the strength of crossmodal duration percepts compared to stimulus complexity, both features showcase auditory dominance in processing visual duration.

The Impact of Video Speed on the Estimation of Time Duration in Sport

The authors investigated the impact of video speed on judging the duration of sport performance. In three experiments, they investigated whether the speed of video presentation (slow motion vs. real time) has an influence on the accuracy of time estimation of sporting activities (n1 = 103; n2 = 100; n3 = 106). In all three studies, the time estimation was more accurate in real time than in slow motion, in which time was overestimated. In two studies, the authors initially investigated whether actions in slow motion are perceived to last longer because the distance they cycled or ran is perceived to be longer (n4 = 92; n5 = 106). The results support the hypothesis that the duration of sporting activities is estimated more accurately when they are presented in real time than in slow motion. Sporting officials' judgments that require accurate time estimation may thus be biased when based on slow-motion displays.

CAN ACTIGRAPHY ACCURATELY QUANTIFY SLEEP ARCHITECTURE IN PATIENTS WEANING FROM PROLONGED MECHANICAL VENTILATION?

TOPIC: Sleep Disorders TYPE: Late Breaking PURPOSE: Polysomnography is cumbersome and impractical for sleep assessment in centers that specialize in weaning from prolonged mechanical ventilation. It is unknown whether surrogate measures of sleep – namely actigraphy, which monitors gross motor activity, or behavioral assessment by a bedside nurse – could serve as reliable surrogates for the reference-standard of polysomnography in such patients. We hypothesized that actigraphy provides accurate estimates of sleep duration and disruption in this setting. METHODS: In 26 patients undergoing weaning from prolonged mechanical ventilation, we performed 12-hour overnight polysomnography with simultaneous dual-limb actigraphy. In addition, at the end-of-shift, the bedside nurse documented their assessment of the patient’s sleep. RESULTS: The median duration of mechanical ventilation was 33.5 days at the time of sleep assessment. The median sleep time recorded by polysomnography was 4.5 (interquartile range, 2.8 - 6.6) hours, while the corresponding values estimated by dual-limb actigraphy and by behavioral assessment were 7.7 (6.1 - 8.9) hours and 6 (5 -7.8) hours, respectively. Median number of awakenings during the sleep period by polysomnography were 43 (28 – 55.5), the corresponding values estimated by actigraphy and by behavioral assessment were 77.5 (49.5 – 99.5) and 3 (2 – 4.8), respectively. Sleep efficiency by polysomnography was 41.2% (23.8 - 55.8%) and 66.05% (46.2 – 74.83%) by actigraphy. Dual-limb actigraphy overestimated sleep efficiency in 22 patients, on average, by 28.48% and underestimated sleep efficiency in four patients, on average, by 13.38%. There was no correlation between actigraphic and polysomnographic assessments of sleep time, sleep efficiency and number of awakenings. There was also no correlation between behavioral and polysomnographic assessments of number of awakenings or total sleep time. CONCLUSIONS: Actigraphy and behavioral assessments of sleep were inaccurate and unreliable in quantifying sleep in patients receiving mechanical ventilation in a chronic weaning facility. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Polysomnography remains the reference standard for sleep assessment in patients weaning from prolonged mechanical ventilation. DISCLOSURES: No relevant relationships by Swetha Gogineni, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Franco Laghi, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Hameeda Shaikh, source=Web Response

An auditory time perception illusion analogous to the visual Müller‐Lyer illusion

According to the centroid hypothesis, the visual Müller-Lyer-type illusions in which subjects misperceive lines or gaps as longer or shorter depending on surrounding distracters result from the pooling of positioning neural signals such that the perceived object is shifted towards these distracters. However, it is uncertain if this type of pooling is a more general principal that influences perceptions in other sensory modalities, including time perception based on auditory signals. In this study, I show that by applying the principles of the centroid hypothesis, an audial time duration illusion can be constructed. The perception of two sequential time intervals, which were defined by three short tone signals, was distorted by placing distracting white noise sounds near each signal. Misperception magnitude, which peaked at 31%, changed with the time interval between the tone signals and distracters; the relationship between the target-distracter distance and the illusion strength closely paralleled with that of a Müller-Lyer-type illusion, whereby the visual objects were analogically arranged in space rather than time. These results demonstrate that even if signals and distracters are distinguishable, the neural mechanisms for estimating time duration utilize coarser sampling to preserve processing resources at the expense of high accuracy. I hypothesize that systems that are dedicated to visual length and time duration estimations are based on similar perceptual magnitude evaluation algorithms. Moreover, this signal pooling principle may be applicable to other perceptual modalities across different species.

Pilot Sleep Behavior across Time during Ultra-Long-Range Flights.

Fatigue risk to the pilot has been a deterrent for conducting direct flights longer than 12 h under normal conditions, but such flights were a necessity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Twenty (N = 20) pilots flying across five humanitarian missions between Brazil and China wore a sleep-tracking device (the Zulu watch), which has been validated for the estimation of sleep timing (sleep onset and offset), duration, efficiency, and sleep score (wake, interrupted, light, or deep Sleep) throughout the mission period. Pilots also reported sleep timing, duration, and subjective quality of their in-flight rest periods using a sleep diary. To our knowledge, this is the first report of commercial pilot sleep behavior during ultra-long-range operations under COVID-19 pandemic conditions. Moreover, these analyses provide an estimate of sleep score during in-flight sleep, which has not been reported previously in the literature.

The ages of zone of proximal development for retrospective time assessment and anticipation of time event

From childhood to adulthood, an individual’s ability to estimate and anticipate the timing of events changes continuously. This study investigated the ability of 287 children aged 5–14 years to estimate the duration of prior events and anticipate the timing of future events for determination of the age at which children improve their timing skills. The Luria neuropsychological assessment battery and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-IV) were applied to find correlations between timing skills and the development of cognitive functions. The findings demonstrated that retrospective estimation of duration has a zone of proximal development in children between the ages of six to eight; in these children, the accuracy of time assessment significantly improved after receiving the prompt. However, improvement in time estimation was significantly lower in those children who achieved lower results in the attention and memory tests and demonstrated reduced spatial and verbal reasoning skills. The zone of proximal development for the ability to anticipate the timing of future events was demonstrated in children between the ages of nine to eleven years. The improvement of time anticipation was negatively correlated with the number of mistakes made during the dynamic praxis test.

Strategic Expectation Setting of Delivery Time in Platform Marketplaces

Delivery speed is an essential component of the service provided by online delivery platforms. Since improving delivery speed is expensive, platforms can give the appearance of faster delivery by showing a conservative estimate of the delivery duration when the consumer makes an order. We use detailed transaction-level data from a hyper-local food delivery platform to examine the effects of setting delivery speed expectations on consumer's likelihood of future purchases and restaurant choices. When delivery is faster than expected, we find that consumers are more likely to purchase again from the platform. However, the perception of a quicker delivery may not benefit the restaurant that served the order, as consumers may explore other restaurants while buying more from the platform. We find that consumers become more likely to buy from the restaurant that served their order and less likely to purchase from other restaurants. We also find evidence that more experienced consumers are less influenced by delivery performance. We further find that, in line with theory, an increase in consumer satisfaction is the likely reason for the observed behavior.

Risk of rheumatoid arthritis diagnosis in statin users in a large nationwide US study

ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between statin use and the risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a large, US case-control study.MethodsUsing the OptumLabs Data Warehouse, RA cases were identified as patients aged ≥18 years with ≥2 RA diagnoses between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2019 and ≥1 prescription fills for methotrexate within 1 year of the first RA diagnosis. The first RA diagnosis was the index date. Cases were matched 1:1 to controls on age, sex, region, year of index date, and length of baseline coverage. Statin users were defined by having ≥2 statin prescription fills at least 90 days pre-index. Patients identified as statin users were further classified by statin user status (current or former), statin use duration, and intensity of statin exposure. Odds ratios for RA risk with statin use were estimated using logistic regression.Results16,363 RA cases and 16,363 matched controls were identified. Among RA cases, 5509 (33.7%) patients were statin users compared to 5164 (31.6%) of the controls. Statin users had a slightly increased risk of RA compared to non-users (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06–1.18), and former statin users had an increased RA risk compared to current users (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13–1.28). However, risk was eliminated following adjustment for hyperlipidemia. The risk estimates for statin use duration and intensity did not reach significance.ConclusionThis study demonstrates no significant increase in the risk of developing RA for statin users compared to non-users after adjustment for hyperlipidemia in addition to other relevant confounders. However, more information from prospective studies would be necessary to further understand this relationship.

A matter of time: how does emotion influence temporal aspects of remembering?

ABSTRACT Spatiotemporal context is an intrinsic aspect of episodic memory. Although a large literature has demonstrated that emotion enhances episodic memory, less research has considered whether and how emotion affects memory for the timing of an experience, despite theoretical and practical importance. In this review, we bridge three heavily researched cognitive domains – memory, emotion, and time – by discussing findings from a burgeoning literature on their intersection. We identify and review two broad ways in which memory for time has been conceptualised in the emotional memory literature, namely (1) memory for relative aspects of event timing (“when” an event detail occurred), which includes studies of temporal-order and source memory; and (2) memory for the time that elapsed during an event (“how long”), which includes studies of retrospective duration estimation. Emerging trends demonstrate that although temporal-order memory can be impaired or enhanced by emotion depending on study demands, temporal source memory, instead, is usually enhanced. Studies of duration memory show that the remembered duration of negative experiences is dilated, but it is less clear how duration memory is affected for positive events. These findings are considered under the lens of broader emotional memory literature theories, and directions for future research are proposed.

Spatial analysis of rehabilitated American black bears to assess conflict potential

Analyses of postrelease movements and behaviors may indicate the propensity of rehabilitated American black bears (Ursus americanus) to be involved in human–bear conflicts. We assessed various linear and Euclidean distances and constructed collar duration and seasonal home-range estimates using Dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models to determine whether 28 rehabilitated yearling bears released in North Carolina, USA, between 2015 and 2018 established a home range or remained transient. Male bears typically moved farther than females, and Mountain region bears typically moved farther than Coastal Plain region bears. All bears showed equally tortuous movement patterns across regions and sexes. Seven bears traveled greater distances than the average of all bears in this study and 2 bears did not establish a home range; these results indicate transient behavior. No bears exhibiting transient behavior were involved with human–bear conflicts, but the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission received calls concerning 4 resident bears, 2 of which exhibited behaviors that would potentially lead to human–bear conflicts. Knowledge of postrelease bear movements will inform management decisions by improving understanding of how movements may affect human–bear interactions.

Using multiple random index dates with the reverse waiting time distribution improves precision of estimated prescription durations.

To improve the precision of prescription duration estimates when using the reverse waiting time distribution (rWTD). For each patient we uniformly sampled multiple random index dates within a sampling window of length . For each index date, we identified the last preceding prescription redemption, if any, within distance . Based on all pairs of last prescription and index date, we estimated prescription durations using the rWTD with robust variance estimation. In simulation studies with increasing misspecification we investigated bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and coverage probability of the rWTD using multiple index dates (1, 5, 10, and 20). We applied the method to Danish data on warfarin prescriptions from 2013 to 2014 stratifying by and adjusting for sex and age. In simulation scenarios without misspecification, the relative bias was negligible (-0.04% to 0.01%) and nominal coverage probabilities almost retained (93.8%-95.4%). RMSE decreased with the number of random index dates (e.g., from 1.3 with 1 index date to 0.6 days with 5). With misspecification, the relative bias was higher irrespective of the number of index dates. Precision increased with the number of index dates, and hence coverage probabilities decreased. When estimating durations of warfarin prescriptions in Denmark, precision increased with number of index dates, in particular in strata with few patients (e.g., men 90+ years: width of 95% confidence interval was 16.2 days with 5 index dates versus 35.4 with 1). Increasing the number of random index dates used with the rWTD improved precision without affecting bias.

Estimating Lane Change Duration for Overtaking in Nonlane-Based Driving Behavior by Local Linear Model Trees (LOLIMOT)

Lane change (LC) is one of the main maneuvers in traffic flow. Many studies have estimated LC duration directly by using lane-based data. The current research presents an estimate of LC duration for overtaking maneuver in nonlane-based traffic flow. In this paper, the LC duration is estimated implicitly by modeling lateral speed and applying the length of required lateral movement to complete the LC maneuver. In lateral speed modeling, the local linear model tree is applied which consists of three variables: the initial lateral distance, longitudinal speed, and time to collision (TTC), which itself is a function of the relative speed of follower and the distance between the two vehicles. The initial lateral distance is the relative transverse distance from which the following vehicle initializes the LC. The range of lateral speed was estimated between 0.5 and 5 km/h, which resulted in the LC duration between 2.5 and 24 sec. The results indicate that the lateral and longitudinal speed would be inversely related, while the lateral speed and the initial transverse distance as well as TTC would be directly related. The findings also indicate that TTC can be assumed as the most important factor affecting lateral speed. TTC at 8 sec can be considered as the threshold for its effect on the LC duration since at longer TTCs, and the lateral speed has remained almost constant. When TTC is longer than 8 sec, it would not affect the LC duration.

Affective Contagion: How Attitudes Expressed by Others Influence Our Perception of Actions.

Vitality forms represent a fundamental aspect of social interactions by characterizing how actions are performed and how words are pronounced on the basis of the attitude of the agent. Same action, such as a handshake, may have a different impact on the receiver when it is performed kindly or vigorously, and similarly, a gentle or rude tone of voice may have a different impact on the listener. In the present study, we carried out two experiments that aimed to investigate whether and how vocal requests conveying different vitality forms can influence the perception of goal-directed actions and to measure the duration of this effect over time. More specifically, participants were asked to listen to the voice of an actor pronouncing “give me” in a rude or gentle way. Then, they were asked to observe the initial part of a rude or a gentle passing action, continue it mentally, and estimate the time of its completion. Results showed that the perception of different vitality forms expressed by vocal requests influenced the estimation of action duration. Moreover, we found that this effect was limited to a certain time interval (800 ms), after which it started to decay.

Dynamic prediction of traffic incident duration on urban expressways: a deep learning approach based on LSTM and MLP

PurposeEfficient traffic incident management is needed to alleviate the negative impact of traffic incidents. Accurate and reliable estimation of traffic incident duration is of great importance for traffic incident management. Previous studies have proposed models for traffic incident duration prediction; however, most of these studies focus on the total duration and could not update prediction results in real-time. From a traveler’s perspective, the relevant factor is the residual duration of the impact of the traffic incident. Besides, few (if any) studies have used dynamic traffic flow parameters in the prediction models. This paper aims to propose a framework to fill these gaps.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes a framework based on the multi-layer perception (MLP) and long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The proposed methodology integrates traffic incident-related factors and real-time traffic flow parameters to predict the residual traffic incident duration. To validate the effectiveness of the framework, traffic incident data and traffic flow data from Shanghai Zhonghuan Expressway are used for modeling training and testing.FindingsResults show that the model with 30-min time window and taking both traffic volume and speed as inputs performed best. The area under the curve values exceed 0.85 and the prediction accuracies exceed 0.75. These indicators demonstrated that the model is appropriate for this study context. The model provides new insights into traffic incident duration prediction.Research limitations/implicationsThe incident samples applied by this study might not be enough and the variables are not abundant. The number of injuries and casualties, more detailed description of the incident location and other variables are expected to be used to characterize the traffic incident comprehensively. The framework needs to be further validated through a sufficiently large number of variables and locations.Practical implicationsThe framework can help reduce the impacts of incidents on the safety of efficiency of road traffic once implemented in intelligent transport system and traffic management systems in future practical applications.Originality/valueThis study uses two artificial neural network methods, MLP and LSTM, to establish a framework aiming at providing accurate and time-efficient information on traffic incident duration in the future for transportation operators and travelers. This study will contribute to the deployment of emergency management and urban traffic navigation planning.

What is winter? Modeling spatial variation in bat host traits and hibernation and their implications for overwintering energetics.

White‐nose syndrome (WNS) has decimated hibernating bat populations across eastern and central North America for over a decade. Disease severity is driven by the interaction between bat characteristics, the cold‐loving fungal agent, and the hibernation environment. While we further improve hibernation energetics models, we have yet to examine how spatial heterogeneity in host traits is linked to survival in this disease system. Here, we develop predictive spatial models of body mass for the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) and reassess previous definitions of the duration of hibernation of this species. Using data from published literature, public databases, local experts, and our own fieldwork, we fit a series of generalized linear models with hypothesized abiotic drivers to create distribution‐wide predictions of prehibernation body fat and hibernation duration. Our results provide improved estimations of hibernation duration and identify a scaling relationship between body mass and body fat; this relationship allows for the first continuous estimates of prehibernation body mass and fat across the species' distribution. We used these results to inform a hibernation energetic model to create spatially varying fat use estimates for M. lucifugus. These results predict WNS mortality of M. lucifugus populations in western North America may be comparable to the substantial die‐off observed in eastern and central populations.

Identifying spatial effects in a lateralized duration estimation task

ABSTRACT Spatial influences may be introduced to an experimental task by manipulations performed on the stimulus or the response or by virtue of the type of stimuli under study. Identification of spatial influences is especially pertinent in investigations of laterality, as isolation of processing to one hemisphere may inadvertently introduce spatial confounds. Because, however, space is not a relevant task feature, it may not always be obvious that it should be taken into consideration. Failure to anticipate these spatial influences can affect the conclusions drawn from results. The current work examines potential spatial influences in an experimental paradigm previously used to investigate perceptual asymmetries for duration estimation in which both stimulus presentation and response selection were lateralized. Potential spatial influences (including the spatial-temporal association of response codes – STEARC, spatial attention, and the Simon effect) are identified and systematically tested over 5 experiments. Results suggest that previously observed perceptual asymmetries in this experimental paradigm may be the result of a spatial confound, specifically, that of the Simon effect. Using vertical response options with the lateral stimulus presentation, however, mitigated the spatial influence. Altogether, the current work demonstrates the importance of carefully considering potential spatial confounds prior to commencement of laterality studies.

Assessing the Impact of the Lead/Lag Times on the Project Duration Estimates in Highway Construction

The literature mentions multiple factors that can affect the accuracy of estimating the project duration in highway construction, such as weather, location, and soil conditions. However, there are other factors that have not been explored, yet they can have significant impact on the accuracy of the project time estimate. Recently, TxDOT raised a concern regarding the importance of the proper estimating of the lead/lag times in project schedules. These lead/lag times are often determined based on the engineer’s experience. However, inaccurate estimates of the lead/lag time can result in unrealistic project durations. In order to investigate this claim, the study utilizes four time sensitivity measures (TSM), namely the Criticality Index (CI), Significance Index (SI), Cruciality Index (CRI), and the Schedule Sensitivity Index (SSI) to statistically analyze and draw conclusions regarding the impact of the lead/lag time estimates on the total duration in highway projects. An Excel-based scheduling software was developed with Monte Carlo simulation capabilities to calculate these TSM. The results from this paper show that the variability of some lead/lag times can significantly impact the accuracy of the estimated total project duration. It was concluded that the current practices used for estimating the lead/lag times are insufficient. As such, it is recommended to utilize more robust methods, such as the time sensitivity measures, to accurately estimate the lead/lad times in the projects scheduled.