Dual-use Technologies Research Articles

Deniability in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: The Upside of the Dual-Use Dilemma

Abstract Nuclear technology is often “dual-use,” having both peaceful and military applications. This is widely regarded as a lamentable fact, as states can pursue nuclear weapons under the guise of peaceful intentions. However, this article proposes an upside to the nuclear dual-use dilemma: the deniable nature of dual-use technology makes it more amenable to coercive counterproliferation. Caught proliferators are more likely to come into compliance if they can elude audience costs by denying that they were ever out of compliance. Thus, the dual-use dilemma is both the bane of the nonproliferation regime and a boon to its coercive enforcement. Poor knowledge of past nuclear programs can hamper future verification. Counterintuitively, however, the effectiveness of nonproliferation regime institutions created to promote transparency—the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—may be enhanced by not directly challenging the denial of past nuclear activities. This research uses interviews and archival evidence from the IAEA, US government, and South African apartheid government. At a time when ongoing nuclear disputes revolve around questions of transparency and admissions of guilt, this article contributes to scholarly and policy debates about secrecy, face-saving, counterproliferation strategy, and the role of international institutions in coercive bargaining.

Ethnic Autonomy as a Dual-Use Technology: Successful Secession under Conditions of Civil War and Peace

Scholars have argued that autonomy, federalism, and other forms of territorial self-governance for ethnic groups are both a successful tool to manage ethnic conflict and a Trojan horse that leads to separatism. This paper contributes to the debate by identifying autonomy as a dual-use technology: under conditions of peace, autonomy acts to maintain a unified state; under large-scale political violence (civil war), autonomy increases the probability of an ethnic group's region emerging as an independent state. I present a cross-national, statistical test of this theory during the post-1945 period.

Whose Politics? Whose Rights? Transparency, Capture and Dual-Use Export Controls

Abstract What kinds of politics do export controls entail and whose rights do they enable? The following article will take a critical perspective on the governance challenges associated with export controls of dual-use technologies. After discussing challenges around transparency, the performance of human rights and export control havens, this article will then turn to looking at policy solutions, including audits, transparency and targeted international governance mechanisms. With conclusion, export controls continue to constitute an important policy tool to promote human rights and can be improved considerably to strengthen human rights further.

The Adaptation of Japanese Economic Statecraft: Trade, Aid, and Technology

AbstractThis article examines how Japan has adapted economic statecraft to serve changing strategic aims through case studies of trade arrangements, official development assistance, and dual-use technology. After World War II, Japan continuously adapted these economic tools to pursue shifting non-economic goals related to international reintegration, comprehensive security, human security, and traditional security. More recently, in response to escalating US–China strategic competition, Japan has employed economic statecraft to simultaneously reduce international instability and to counter China in targeted ways as part of a broader hedging approach. First, Japan has attempted to bolster multilateral trade arrangements amid a volatile policy environment, while also using them to both engage and counter China. Second, Japan has used official development assistance to stabilize and build defense capacity in Asian countries facing pressure from China. Third, Japan has increasingly militarized its dual-use technologies to enhance its ability to respond to Chinese activity in outer space.

The dual-use security dilemma and the social construction of insecurity

ABSTRACT In this article I introduce the concept of the “dual-use security dilemma,” specifically through elaborating on two main aspects that shape this dilemma. First, inspired by traditional security scholarship, I focus on the spiral dynamics of actors responding to the insecurities raised by dual-use technologies that affect this type of dilemma. Second, I further develop a securitization reading of the traditional security dilemma, tracing how social constructions of insecurities and the justification of extraordinary measures affect the dynamics of the security dilemma. Combining these two aspects, I suggest that enunciators shape the dynamics of the dual-use security dilemma by using specific rationales of insecurity to mobilize support for measures against opponents holding dual-use technologies, whose response further fuels insecurity that spirals over time. The innovative theoretical and policy implications of this research become especially important given the rise of dual-use cyber technologies.

A ‘Gentleman’s Understanding’: British, French, and German Dual-Use Technology Transfer to China and America’s Dilemma during the Carter Administration, 1977-1981

ABSTRACT This examination considers an understudied aspect of Sino-American relations during the Jimmy Carter Administration: the transfer of military technologies from American allies in Western Europe to China during and after establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and how these transfers played a central role in the Chinese leader’s, Deng Xiaoping’s, overall Cold War strategy. This study argues that Western Europeans tended to act much more independently than Americans expected in trading with the Chinese – a situation capitalised on by Deng and his comrades, whose long-term military ambitions extended far beyond the Cold War.

Methodological approach to development and implementation of the Small Nuclear Power Plants program

The article considers perspectives and institutions for innovative nuclear energy subsector – a small and medium-sized nuclear power plants (SNP). The features of the technologies, prospective sites for their introduction, topics for priority research work, as well as mechanisms for the creation of a new sub-sector of nuclear energy are briefly discussed. The advantages and opportunities of such approach to the energy supply of autonomous and isolated consumers located primarily in remote areas and in the Arctic are indicated. Special attention is paid to the problems of technological and operational safety, economic efficiency, and personnel training. The methodological framework provides a brief integrated description of the possibilities provided by dual-use technologies in solving national economic issues; a list of priority research areas to clarify assessments of the financial and economic efficiency of the SNP subsystem within the Russian nuclear energy industry; as well as proposals for personnel training to ensure a trouble-free and efficient Program implementation process.

Dual-Use Technology Development and its Governance in Universities: A comparison of Japan and the United States

Dual-Use Technology Development and its Governance in Universities: A comparison of Japan and the United States

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNOLOGIES: ANALYSIS OF PATENT TRENDS

Based on the analysis of the Reports of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), the UK Intellectual Property Office (IPO), the European Patent Office (EPO), the patent landscape in the field of AI technology was studied. The definition of AI is given, inventive and patent activity on AI technologies, companies, inventors-patent owners and geographical regions are shown, forecast estimations are given, the importance of IP in ensuring national security is emphasized. According to the study, the number of published patent applications related to AI has increased by 400% over the last decade, and the number of patent applications using AI technology filed in the United States between 2002 and 2018 has doubled. In 2020, the United States and Europe are leaders in computer technology, but growth is provided by Asia. However, the United States is the world’s leading country of origin for applications for inventions in this field. This reflects the strengths of the United States in core software technologies (operating systems, databases, cloud computing), basic AI (neural networks, deep learning, rule-based systems), three-dimensional systems, and the healthcare sector. Annual European patent applications for AI have grown tenfold over the last decade to more than 800 applications in 2020. At the same time, the contribution of American applicants to the overall submission of AI applications decreased, and the number of AI registration applications from Chinese applicants increased more than 10 times. The United States is losing its early advantage in AI innovation within the country. It is concluded that AI is one of the most important dual-use technologies, which has a multiplier effect, transforms the economy and society and promotes global digital transformation. AI is now seen as a new challenge for the economy and the legal system, a new phenomenon, a legal phenomenon in the structure of legal relations, a new object of regulation.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY: PROBLEMS OF REGULATION

The economic and legal aspects of the regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, their influence on scientific and inventive activity are studied. The role of protection of intellectual property (IP) – (patent and copyright) in ensuring the balance of competing interests, identified problems and identified ways to solve them. AI is seen as one of the most important dual-use technologies, a new challenge for the economy and the legal system, a new phenomenon that has a multiplier effect, a legal phenomenon in the structure of legal relations, a new object for legal regulation. AI is able to generate and create various works – science, literature and art. These circumstances raise problems of recognition of authorship, the possibility of authors to dispose of their rights and their use of mechanisms for legal protection of IP objects. The main provisions of the Resolution of the European Parliament of October 20, 2020 on intellectual property rights in the field of artificial intelligence technologies (2020/2015 (INI)), the Resolution of the International Association for the Protection of Intellectual Property (AIPPI) 2020 on the inventory of inventions using AI. An analysis of the legislative and law enforcement practices of the European Patent Office (EPO), the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and the UK Intellectual Property Office (UKIPO), regional and international documents on the regulation of AI and IP, designed to form a unified approach to interpretation criteria for the protection of the results of AI activities in different jurisdictions, the use of mechanisms for the legal protection of IP objects, to emphasize the importance of IP policy for national security.

Unfree Flow with No Trust: The Implications of Geoeconomics and Geopolitics for Data and Digital Trade

The recognition that the modern economy is increasingly driven by data and on-line commerce has led to a number of initiatives to establish a global data governance regime that promises “data free flow with trust” or DFFT, and an associated open e-commerce regime. Since then, notwithstanding progress in formulating proposals to build the trust that is the key to enabling free flow, international frictions have pushed in the opposite direction and today’s reality is closer to unfree flow with no trust than it is to DFFT. The issues go beyond the technical and legal frameworks required to build trust at the level of private participants in the digital economy – the household/consumer and corporations. They extend to the geoeconomics and geopolitics of the knowledge-based and data-driven economy that emerge from the contest for the rising economic rents that this economy generates and the parallel contest for leadership/dominance of the new general purpose and dual-use technologies built on the nexus of big data/machine learning/artificial intelligence. This note discusses how data and digital trade policies are shaped by the new geoeconomics and geopolitics and how these are in fact endogenous to the technological conditions of the age.

Model of the organizational and economic mechanism for managing the commercialization of dual-use technologies created during the implementation of the state defense order

Model of the organizational and economic mechanism for managing the commercialization of dual-use technologies created during the implementation of the state defense order

Performance and operational feasibility of two diagnostic tests for cryptosporidiosis in children (CRYPTO-POC): a clinical, prospective, diagnostic accuracy study

SummaryBackgroundCryptosporidiosis is a common cause of diarrhoea in young children (aged younger than 24 months) in low-resource settings but is currently challenging to diagnose. Light-emitting diode fluorescence microscopy with auramine-phenol staining (LED-AP), recommended for tuberculosis testing, can also detect Cryptosporidium species. A lateral-flow test not requiring refrigerator storage (by contrast with most immunochromatographic lateral-flow assays) has also recently been developed for Cryptosporidium spp detection. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and operational feasibility of LED-AP and the lateral-flow test strip for cryptosporidiosis in children.MethodsWe did a prospective diagnostic accuracy study in two health-care facilities in Ethiopia, in a consecutive series of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea (three or more loose stools within the previous 24 h) or dysentery (at least one loose stool with stains of blood within the previous 24 h). Stool samples were tested for Cryptosporidium spp by LED-AP and the lateral-flow test strip; accuracy of each test was estimated by independent and blind comparison with a composite reference standard comprising quantitative immunofluorescent antibody test (qIFAT), ELISA, and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Quantitative cutoff values for diarrhoea-associated infection were established in an embedded case-control substudy, with cases of cryptosporidiosis coming from the 15 districts in and around Jimma and the eight districts surrounding Serbo, and community controls without diarrhoea in the previous 48 h recruited by weekly frequency matching by geographical district of the household, age group, and enrolment week.FindingsStool samples from 912 children with diarrhoea or dysentery and 706 controls from the case-control substudy were tested between Dec 22, 2016, and July 6, 2018. Estimated reference-standard cutoff values for cryptosporidiosis positivity were 2·3 × 105 DNA copies per g of wet stool for qPCR, and 725 oocysts per g for qIFAT. LED-AP had a sensitivity for cryptosporidiosis of 88% (95% CI 79–94; 66 of 75 samples) and a specificity of 99% (98–99; 717 of 726 samples); the lateral-flow test strip had a sensitivity of 89% (79–94; 63 of 71 samples) and a specificity of 99% (97–99; 626 of 635 samples).InterpretationLED-AP has high sensitivity and specificity for cryptosporidiosis and should be considered as a dual-use technology that can be easily integrated with existing laboratory infrastructures in low-resource settings. The lateral-flow test strip has similar sensitivity and specificity and provides an alternative that does not require microscopy, although purchase cost of the test strip is unknown as it is not yet available on the market.FundingNorwegian Research Council GLOBVAC fund, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Norwegian Society for Medical Microbiology, University of Bergen, and Vestfold Hospital Trust.

Conversion of Dual-Use Technology: A Differential Game Analysis under the Civil-Military Integration

Civil-military integration enables the symmetry development of dual-use technologies in the defense and civilian areas. In this paper, we used stochastic differential game theory to build theoretical models of the dual-use technology conversion between a military firm and a civilian firm. The models include three directions of dual-use technology conversion, namely, spin-off, spin-in, and mix. In particular, we incorporate the dynamic development of dual-use technology into the research framework. Our results show that the order of the Pareto optimality results is mix, spin-in, spin-out, including the best effort, the highest revenue, and the most technology value-added. The results also indicate that: (1) Some random interference factors can affect the transfer efforts, such as the coefficient of technological innovation capability and cost coefficients. (2) The military subsidies factor is an inventive mechanism that can promote dual-use transfer from the civilian firm to the military. (3) The military enterprise only earns more than the civilian firm in spin-in. (4) The growth of models in the dual-use technology conversion process faces increased technology uncertainty.

DUAL-USE MATERIAL SCIENCE TECHNOLOGIES TRANSFER IN UKRAINE: PREMISES AND PRESENT CATCH-22

The object of effort is to assess the underpin premises of transfer of dual use materials science technologies appeared in Ukraine after the Independence and those developed until nowadays. It is also to shed a light on this issue and evaluate historical, technical, political, and mental barriers between technology supplier / recipient and future prospects and successful steps to be made to overcome those. The work puts a problem to scrutinize today’s and future materials science dual use technology transfer control regulations and all premises associated and leaving an imprint on the realities existing in Ukraine. First of all, it is important to study technology transfer issues and a vital role of those premises appeared in Ukraine otherwise one may chase a ghost while trying to understand how to put it correct in a right legal and political way to successfully resolve this matter since in this case none turnkey solutions ever exist. For example, central to a control regime debate is to discuss an evolution, or lack of the existing transparent legislation covering dual-use technologies, and a discussion on its orientation and scope. Does this really work and sound in practice, and if “yes” then to what extent? Second, at a time of fundamental change in nature and order of international relations, the wisdom of ad hoc control regimes must not escape scrutiny. Although experts are very much aware of these problems, future of control regulations remains still blurred and uncertain, so what are their potential implications for international state’s security? The research revealed that a reassessment of the problems surrounding dual use materials science technologies and today’s control regulations should be made – both in terms of their potential improvement and/or possible new universal multilateral agreements and transparency among states involved in technology transfer. This further argues a need for new international mechanisms to ensure the transfer of dual-use materials science technologies, while not powering proliferation opportunities for weapon systems. The results of this endeavor make a ground floor for further debates in terms of politics and export control in the field of transfer of intangible technologies.

Evaluation of dual use materials science technologies issue in Ukraine – «trick or treat»

The object of this research is materials science dual-use technologies and their transfer. It is important to study the problems of transfer of dual-use technologies and related prerequisites, as well as their vital role in Ukraine, trying to understand how to fix all those in the right legal and political way, otherwise, literally, it looks like a chasing a ghost. To successfully solve this problem, one need to understand that in this case there no turnkey solutions ever exist. The complex nature of dual-use technologies and their potential for development of the economies of any countries make fundamental for both R&D and political debates. It should be noted that there has never been a clearly defined line between defense and civilian research, and that line is still rather dimmed and blurred. Dual technologies become being applied in more and more industrial sectors, from nuclear science and materials science to electronics, etc., and those are attracting increased interest from developers, policymakers and legislators. The erosion of civil and defense industrial bases and principles, as well as an avalanche growing number of problems associated with undefined dual-use functions and misuse make it difficult to distinguish between civilian and military products and platforms and complicate issues of export control and technology transfer. The concept of creating a so-called «scientific and technological depository of advanced material science technologies» by high-tech states and its’ profound significance for state’s security is also being debated. The establishment of a scientific and technical deposit is considered as a common task of national economy and security of states. A required and vitally important condition for a successful development of scientific and technological progress is the timely creation of a scientific and technical reserve of modern technologies, which provides a solid basis for new developments, state economy and military-industrial complex. The work also assesses the symbiosis of a public-private model to manage dual-use technologies in the interests of state’s security. In the course of the study, an integrated approach was employed: an analysis of world experience, as well as a retrospective and historical-evolutionary and logical approach were used to arrive the above said tasks.

Research and Development (R & D) Sebagai Pilar Utama dalam Membangun Ekonomi Industri Pertahanan Indonesia

This study intends to describe how defense research and development, which is a major pillar, is used to accelerate efforts towards independence in the economy of the Indonesian defense industry. This research is qualitative research, the type of research uses a comprehensive analytical study and analytical normative approach. At present, almost all countries that provide large-scale military equipment are supported by strong research capacity and domestic technological capacity. Therefore, efforts to develop highly competitive defense technology with established support are essential. Not only to face security threats but also to make Indonesia relevant in the fierce competition in the era of economic globalization ahead. The country can reap optimum benefits from its defense industry activities. In addition to strengthening war machines and arsenal, most of the research and development activities also encourage the use of research results for commercial or non-military industrial activities. The pattern of a symbiosis of military technology mutualism for use in the general public (commercial) has recently become a reference for policy developers known as the concept of dual-use technologies. The concept of dual-use technologies is then applied in the form of tiered trees that describe the roots of for a product or technology in general that must be developed and then grow like branches and branches to specific specifications for military or commercial use.

Today's Biothreats – Where the Past Predictions Meet the Future

The catastrophic spread of COVID-19 pandemic, uncontrolled by modern medical science, regardless of whether it is artificial or not, clearly shows the limits of human mind and knowledge to resist this and other similar challenges. The purpose of this work is to show the danger of dual-use biotechnologies in the development of fundamentally new approaches to biological damage to humans. The forecasts of the development of biotechnologies, made by the experts of the American organization JASON and other specialists 23 years ago, are analyzed. It is shown in the article, that in general these forecasts and assessments turned out to be true. The technologies that, most probably, can be used for the development of new means of biological destruction are: binary bioweapons – these are two-component systems that are relatively safe to handle but become deadly when the two components come together on deployment; designer genes – where specific unnatural gene sequences are built into viruses or other life forms to incorporate into the genome of the unsuspecting host, which later becomes the victim; gene therapy – today a medical (partial) reality; the technology that allows medicine to repair or replace defective genes in a diseased individual might be subverted to introduce pathogenic sequences into healthy individuals; stealth viruses – viruses that could be fashioned by a researcher to infect the host but remain silent until activated by some physiological or environmental trigger; host-swapping diseases – new zoonotic agents which might be developed specifically for bioweapon purposes by modifying existing pathogens to seek human hosts; designer diseases – where the detailed knowledge of biochemical signaling pathways could conceivably be used to create designer diseases. In addition to those predicted by JASON, another dualuse technology has emerged recently – synthetic biology. It is a very powerful interdisciplinary branch of biology. Specific examples of the use of these technologies to create new means of biological warfare are given in the article. The author believes that it is necessary not only to track new dual-use biotechnologies, but also to improve conventional and scientific methods of monitoring their use.

A strategic management perspective of science and technology ventures by China

Objectives: To analyze the primary strategic motives for China venturing into Disruptive Technologies and Innovations R&D at a very rapid pace. China has been galloping the Technology Highway for the past decade, with technological and innovation inroads in almost all the key sectors with the government playing a pivotal role. Method: The apparent drivers for the rapid strides in technology are economic growth, social development and the national aspirations of establishing a powerful and prosperous China. Forays in disruptive technologies has been preceded near-simultaneously by a plethora of strategic geopolitical ventures by China within its land mass, in the various seas, across the Asian, Europe and African continents and also in the space dimension. Thus, the methodology adopted is to study the various strategic initiatives China has implemented in the backdrop of global geopolitics. Thereafter, correlate the disruptive technologies to the various Chinese strategies. Findings: The initiatives to be a world leader in Disruptive Technologies correspond to China\'s other Strategic programs in global geopolitics and expansionist steps in the five dimensions of Land, Air, Sea, Space and Cyber Space. This cannot be dismissed as a mere coincidence. This study establishes that Technology is the common underlying driver of all the geopolitical overtures, viewed as strategic overlays, by China. Further, it is found that China is boosting R&D on dual-use technologies as compared to the single civil-end use technologies to complement its military component in implementation of its strategic manoeuvres. Application: The study will facilitate in mapping the global repercussions of these technologies, especially in the Indian sub-continent, given the stand-off relationship between the two nations. Keywords: Technology management; China\'s science & technology policy; Science & technology road-map; India implications; Strategic management

Why Ricardo’s Theory of Comparative Advantage Regarding Foreign Trade Doesn’t Work in Today’s Global Economy

This article first analyzes Ricardo’s theorem, not just his argument in favor of comparative advantage, but also the conditions that are necessary for the theory to work, namely, that capital is loyal to the country of origin and that currencies will adjust to level out imbalances in trade. It then traces the flow of foreign direct investment into China and the basis for that flow – cheap labor. It then analyzes China’s manipulation of the yuan and the changes in the relative valuation of currencies. The next section of the article addresses China’s entry into the World Trade Organization and its failure to live up to its agreement to move to a market-based economy. China’s reliance on state owned enterprises, its subsidization of export and high-tech industries, and its direct and indirect coercion of technological transfer and know-how from the U. S. and other countries – all stand in opposition to the principles to which other countries have agreed in connection with their participation in the World Trade Organization. A critical factor that is not been understood in connection with global trade is that the transfer of dual-use technology to China also carries with it national security implications. The next sections look at forced technology transfer and China’s military goals, including its policy to be both industrially and militarily self-sufficient, something United States needs to be likewise. This leads to a discussion of industrial policy. China has clearly articulated its industrial policy and the steps that it will take to implement it. The United States cannot afford, either from the standpoint of providing good paying jobs for its citizens, or from the standpoint of being a leader in research and development, or from the standpoint of national security, to be dependent upon products originating from, or supply chains running through, other countries – particularly when such countries are hostile to the United States. The conclusion asserts that Sen. Rubio’s “Made in China 2025 and the Future of American Industry” may be the opening of a critically necessary dialogue on the need for, and nature of, an industrial policy for the United States. Just relying upon the mantra that free trade benefits all, and supporting such mantra on the basis that it is “proved” by Ricardo’s theorem of comparative advantage, is to put our head in the sand and ignore the evidence set forth in this article.